Thankgiving Week

This is an interesting article from a newsletter I receive. I'll be going 100% G today because my system is telling me to, but it's nice to know the trends are behind me too!! :^

Good luck,

M_M



In terms of investing, Thanksgivingoffers some evidence that suggests a Seasonality Timing System,
first
introduced by Norman Fosback three decades ago, that can add a considerable
boost to your returns. Hulbert Financial Digest editor Mark Hulbert,
who
tracks the system, has found that this "simple, mechanical timing
system,
based on nothing more than the calendar, has beaten every other market
timing
system that the HFD has tracked over the past 20 years."

Generally speaking, the Seasonality Timing System suggests that
investors
who dollar-cost average should schedule their monthly investing around
the
first and last trading days of the month. Doing so, according to Mr.
Hulbert --
i.e. switching between cash (specifically a money market fund) and the
market
(specifically the Wilshire 5000) -- would have yielded a 15.4% return
over the
past 20 years, versus a 12.8% return for a buy-and-hold market
strategy. The
system has also proven much less volatile than a buy-and-hold strategy
-- 45%
less.

The specific rules call for buying at the close of the third-to-last
trading
session of each month and selling at the close of the fifth trading
session of
each month. The rule is similar for holidays when the market is
shuttered: Buy
on the third-to-last trading session prior to a holiday and sell at the
close of the
last trading session prior to a holiday.

Every rule has its exceptions, of course. When the holiday occurs on
the first
trading session of the week, which is usually a Monday, evidence
suggests
waiting to sell until the close of the trading session after the
holiday.

Thanksgiving is another exception. The rule here is to wait to sell
until the
close of trading on Friday.

Why does Seasonality Timing work? Theories abound. One theory is that
investors who dollar-cost average tend to do so around the beginning of
the
month. Another theory suggests it's a function of investor behavioral
health:
When investors are happier, they tend to buy more than sell.

You needn't dollar-cost average to exploit this weirdness. Just knowing
how
most investors act in certain situations can pinpoint propitious entry
points.

Thanksgiving can't quite be counted on to deliver excess returns, but
going
back to 1950, the Tuesdays and Wednesdays before Thanksgiving have been
positive days for the market approximately 60% of the time.

That's not really compelling, but it does give the turkey leg up to
Thanksgiving, and anything that increases our odds is worthy of
consideration.
Add to the mix the fact that we've entered the sweet spot of investing,
the
November-April period, which has outperformed the May-October period
70% of the time, and by a huge margin, and you've got a spicy recipe,
indeed.

Gobble-gobble.

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
This is an interesting article from a newsletter I receive. I'll be going 100% G today because my system is telling me to, but it's nice to know the trends are behind me too!! :^

Good luck,

M_M



"Thanksgiving is another exception. The rule here is to wait to sell
until the close of trading on Friday."




Doesn't this mean you should wait until Friday to go 100%G to be effective on Monday?

Or am I misinterpreting what you or the articleare saying?

Rod wrote:



Doesn't this mean you should wait until Friday to go 100%G to be effective on Monday?

Or am I misinterpreting what you or the articleare saying?



Yes it does, but like I said, my system is telling me to switch now, gotta keep emotion out of it, or at least try.............:h

Good luck

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
Rod wrote:



Doesn't this mean you should wait until Friday to go 100%G to be effective on Monday?

Or am I misinterpreting what you or the articleare saying?



Yes it does, but like I said, my system is telling me to switch now, gotta keep emotion out of it, or at least try.............:h

Good luck

I know what you mean!:D

[smine]

Rod, will you go to 100G today for Friday?

[tsptalk]

Thanksgiving is another exception. The rule here is to wait to sell until the close of trading on Friday
Hey, that's what I thinking of doing:) Being out for Monday (or Tuesday).

[smine]

When will you decide that, Tom? It has been by experience that 10 minutes til cut-off time and suddenly this forum is in limbo.....unable to get all opinions before I make mine. Don't wait too late to decide!;)

[Mike]

Interesting read. The only reason I could see for moving something out of stocks at the end of the week (in my case) is if I have reason to believe the prices will drop below my entry point at the close of last friday. I don't see any compelling reason for that to happen... unless the dollar continues to free-fall and worry investors about slowing consumer spending.

[Show-me]

I'm thinking of getting out today also, but for different reasons. I will be traveling this weekend and Friday will not be near puter to watch the market in case something weird happens.

[Rolo]

So, the idea here is to sell at COB Friday (order by 12 ET today) and buy back Monday or so COB?

[puertorico]

smine wrote:
When will you decide that, Tom? It has been by experience that 10 minutes til cut-off time and suddenly this forum is in limbo.....unable to get all opinions before I make mine. Don't wait too late to decide!;)

Smine ,
So what u think about today ,move or stay put ?

I think will stay put until friday but no sure yet.

Depent of the comment,I will move safe or stay...:)

[puertorico]

smine wrote:
When will you decide that, Tom? It has been by experience that 10 minutes til cut-off time and suddenly this forum is in limbo.....unable to get all opinions before I make mine. Don't wait too late to decide!;)

Smine ,
So what u think about today ,move or stay put ?

I think will stay put until friday but no sure yet.

Depent of the comment,I will move safe or stay...:)

Rolo wrote:
So, the idea here is to sell at COB Friday (order by 12 ET today) and buy back Monday or so COB?If you do it by noon today, you get today's prices not Fridays........:*

[smine]

Market seems OK today; slight rise. International is going down I think. Any change today before dead-line won't happen until Fri evening.....lots can happen between now and Friday evening. Probably will stay put at G50 C15 S15 I20. I've been conservative this week trying to hold onto what I gained last week. Small increases are better than any loss!

[smine]

Moves today don't get done until Fri evening. That's a long time from now; will stay put with conservative week's G50 C15 S15 I20. International is moving downward while the US market is staying slightly up. BTW, this is my second reply; as I said, when it gets close to deadline time the "network" starts acting strange, i.e. messages aren't delivered or the server goes down; often I can't get this forum at home and at work. Mighty strange.

[Rod]

smine wrote:
Rod, will you go to 100G today for Friday?
No... I'll most probably be 100%G effective for Monday.

I'm riding this one out.

Okay, you're starting to confuse me and I'm sure others also. Any interfund transfer requested before noon EST, is processed with today's closing price. Any transfer requestedafter 12pm EST, is processed with the NEXT day's closing price in mind. Agreed?

[smine]

See; trying to read before 11am and I get this:

Too many connections
Unable to connect to DB server 216.130.191.8 at port 3306

Be forewarned not to wait too late for decisive changes; sometimes can't connect when you have your best strategy planned!! Glad I'm staying put. Will ride this little wave. Have a nice t-day all:^

[Rod]

smine wrote:
Moves today don't get done until Fri evening. That's a long time from now; will stay put with conservative week's G50 C15 S15 I20. International is moving downward while the US market is staying slightly up. BTW, this is my second reply; as I said, when it gets close to deadline time the "network" starts acting strange, i.e. messages aren't delivered or the server goes down; often I can't get this forum at home and at work. Mighty strange.
Look at my "error message" topic in the Report Problems thread.

How long have you been experiencing this???

[smine]

Too many connections
Unable to connect to DB server 216.130.191.8 at port 3306

Aboveis one of the more typical messages I get when trying to read forum comments or connect.Do changes early! Don't wait til 10 minutes to dead-line! I'm not moving...probably wished I had more stock due to this noon day bulletin:

CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:38 PM ET Nov 24, 2004

WASHINGTON: Holiday shopping has begun, online and offline. Sears (S (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=S&siteid=mktw&dist=nwh id)) and J.C. Penney (JCP (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=JCP&siteid=mktw&dist=n whid)) held pre-Thanksgiving sales with deep discounts, while traffic to comparison-shopping Web sites and online merchants has already soared. Nielsen/NetRatings (NTRT (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=NTRT&siteid=mktw&dist= nwhid)) said its traffic analysis showed a 60 percent increase in visits to shopping......

That to meadds up to increased stock due to increase buying...:^

[smine]

Network Error (tcp_error)



A communication error occurred: ""

The Web Server may be down, too busy, or experiencing other problems preventing it from responding to requests. You may wish to try again at a later time.

[font=Helvetica][size=2][size="21600,21600">

]

[Rod]

smine wrote:
Too many connections
Unable to connect to DB server 216.130.191.8 at port 3306

Aboveis one of the more typical messages I get when trying to read forum comments or connect.Do changes early! Don't wait til 10 minutes to dead-line! I'm not moving...probably wished I had more stock due to this noon day bulletin:

CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:38 PM ET Nov 24, 2004

WASHINGTON: Holiday shopping has begun, online and offline. Sears (S (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=S&siteid=mktw&dist=nwh id)) and J.C. Penney (JCP (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=JCP&siteid=mktw&dist=n whid)) held pre-Thanksgiving sales with deep discounts, while traffic to comparison-shopping Web sites and online merchants has already soared. Nielsen/NetRatings (NTRT (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=NTRT&siteid=mktw&dist= nwhid)) said its traffic analysis showed a 60 percent increase in visits to shopping......

That to meadds up to increased stock due to increase buying...:^

Yep! The busiest shopping day of the year is the day after Thanksgiving.:^

[Rod]

smine wrote:
Too many connections
Unable to connect to DB server 216.130.191.8 at port 3306

Aboveis one of the more typical messages I get when trying to read forum comments or connect.Do changes early! Don't wait til 10 minutes to dead-line! I'm not moving...probably wished I had more stock due to this noon day bulletin:

CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:38 PM ET Nov 24, 2004

WASHINGTON: Holiday shopping has begun, online and offline. Sears (S (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=S&siteid=mktw&dist=nwh id)) and J.C. Penney (JCP (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=JCP&siteid=mktw&dist=n whid)) held pre-Thanksgiving sales with deep discounts, while traffic to comparison-shopping Web sites and online merchants has already soared. Nielsen/NetRatings (NTRT (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=NTRT&siteid=mktw&dist= nwhid)) said its traffic analysis showed a 60 percent increase in visits to shopping......

That to meadds up to increased stock due to increase buying...:^



Yep! The busiest shopping day of the year is the day after Thanksgiving.:^

[tsptalk]

smine wrote:
When will you decide that, Tom? It has been by experience that 10 minutes til cut-off time and suddenly this forum is in limbo.....unable to get all opinions before I make mine. Don't wait too late to decide!;)
Probably during the first hour of trading on Friday. Since I'm working Friday I have to do it before I leave for work which is about 10:15 ET.

[tsptalk]

Mike wrote:
Interesting read. The only reason I could see for moving something out of stocks at the end of the week (in my case) is if I have reason to believe the prices will drop below my entry point at the close of last friday. I don't see any compelling reason for that to happen... unless the dollar continues to free-fall and worry investors about slowing consumer spending.
Hey Mike. Don't let us let you lose focus on your plan / strategy. You had said you were pretty set with your allocation through the end of the year, correct?

It's so easy to let what others say sway you, but you have a good plan.

[tsptalk]

mlk_man wrote:
Okay, you're starting to confuse me and I'm sure others also. Any interfund transfer requested before noon EST, is processed with today's closing price. Any transfer requestedafter 12pm EST, is processed with the NEXT day's closing price in mind. Agreed?
Agreed.

[TheProphet]

Good strategy ! ! ! :^I will get out on Friday and back on Monday... The first four days fo December are usullay bullish... I am planning to profit... :^Good Luck to you and everyone... :^It is Turkey Time... Enjoy It...