No Transfer Today. Just My Observations

[tsptalk]

This is psychology / sentiment at its best andI was trapped right into it.I gave up on the pullback exactly when it came. That is a typical "herd" response. I preach about it all the time and I got sucked into it anyway.

OK, so here is what I decided:

1) We were due for a pullback and today seems to look like at least the start of it. Monday may also be in there. As I had been saying we needed a pullback to gain some support otherwise when we get a pullback it will be fast and furious. Today is showing us exactly that as the Dow is down about 100 pts as I write this.

2) Take a look atthe seasonality chart below. November 1st was the 1st trading day of November. That makes the 19th (today) the 15th trading day of themonth and it is usually a good day. How often is Nov 1 the first trading day of November? Well it's more likely not to be so I'd say the Friday before Thanksgiving week ismore likely to bethe 12 to 14th trading day. Even Monday may not be a typical 15th trading day as it is the Monday following options expiration week, which is typically weak.

This pullback is good for the market even though it is not great for our balances. It is setting up another healthyleg of the bull market.

So, in an "I'll talk myself into this" fashion, I believe today and possiblyMonday will be the only weak days in this pullback, so I will bite the bullet and stay where I am, 100% in stocks. I'm not happy that I played it wrong, but when you play games like this, sometimes you get burned.

For those of you who missed yesterday's late email alert and are still only 60% invested, consider yourself lucky. You may want to jump back in this morning or Monday morning.


http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/seasonality_november.gif
chart provided courtesy of http://www.sentimentrader.com (http://www.sentimentrader.com)

[Mike]

Yay, I didn't screw up completely on my move. :D

And to think after I chose to do this early this morning, I was worried that the market would continue upward and then plummet on Monday... :shock:

[tsptalk]

Oh sorry Mike. I thought you meant you made the transfer yesterday and were in today. So you're not the contrarian indicator after all. It's me! :shock::)

Nice move!

[Mike]

Yep, for the first time all year, the market actually is doing what I thought it would. A blind squirrel is bound to find the nut once in awhile, eh? :^

[BigJames]

OK, question. I made a transfer before the deadlineyesterday to 60% G and 40% C. Which considering todays lumps I should consider myself lucky. Late last night I put in another transfer to 40%-C, 40%-S, and 20% I, (effective close of business today). Now my question (and problem) is what to do now. Because of my job (military) I am going to be out of touch with the real world till Wednesday (day before Turkey-day). I have till 1800 tommorrow night to startanother transfer if I so desire. Any and all advice and opinions would be greatly appreciated.

OH, two more closing comments. 1) Everyone have a Happy Turkey Day . 2) How scarey is it that I operate some of the most advanced systems in the entire world but I can't make spell check here work?????

BigJames wrote:
OK, question. I made a transfer before the deadlineyesterday to 60% G and 40% C. Which considering todays lumps I should consider myself lucky. Late last night I put in another transfer to 40%-C, 40%-S, and 20% I, (effective close of business today). Now my question (and problem) is what to do now. Because of my job (military) I am going to be out of touch with the real world till Wednesday (day before Turkey-day). I have till 1800 tommorrow night to startanother transfer if I so desire. Any and all advice and opinions would be greatly appreciated.

OH, two more closing comments. 1) Everyone have a Happy Turkey Day . 2) How scarey is it that I operate some of the most advanced systems in the entire world but I can't make spell check here work?????

Hey James, I'd stay where you're at unless you wanna go to G today which would take effect at close of business Monday and hope that Monday is up big and Tuesday and Wed. are just up a little bit or down, which may happen. According to Tom's seasonality charts, most of next week should be fairly good, that is why I say stay put unless you can take a look at things everyday.

Good luck,

M_M

[Mike]

I say stick with that allocation. Pullbacks are temporary - but painful. Then the renewed upward push hits with a vengeance. It's better to absorb the pain of the pullback and still be in the market for the renewed push than it is to bail out in the midst of the pullback and miss some of the gains that come later.

Tom will probably say the same thing... coupled with comments about "risk tolerance" and the like. :P

[Rolo]

Mike wrote:
I say stick with that allocation. Pullbacks are temporary - but painful. Then the renewed upward push hits with a vengeance. It's better to absorb the pain of the pullback and still be in the market for the renewed push than it is to bail out in the midst of the pullback and miss some of the gains that come later.

Agreed. I am not versed enough (nor really motivated enough) to try to time the ultra-short dips....too risky for too little reward. Now, if I could speculate to a two-week+ pullback, then yes, I would try to avoid that by cutting losses.

Yes, it sounds MUCH easier on paper!

[tsptalk]

I agree also. The downside risk is probably somewhere between 1140 and 1163 on the S&P 500. Monday is questionable but Thanksgiving week should be at worst flat,and morelikely up.

And it's not you James. The spell checker has been so flakey on this message board. I'll take a look. :X

Hey Rolo,Isn't that how wefound you, or you found us?:) Iwas complaining about spell checker on the wowbb board when you helped me out.

[smedlap]

Tom, I love your logic. I agree with the pullback assessment as a pull and push process and your beliefthatthe marketis going higher. Howcan anuonepredict oil?Bears loved today. One can predict a dollar decline, thus the I fund slight advantage. But oil bantering back and forth in price? Isupport your view of a next leg up following consolidation-I remain 100% I Fund. I have to suck up my loss as the speed bump I was preparing for, butwacked me (small wack). Nice weekend!

Well James, you should get both sides of the fence so I take back what I originally said, GET OUT NOW, THE MARKET IS GOING DOWN, GRAB YOUR BREAD, FLASHLIGHTS, AND OH, DON'T FORGET THE MILK..........QUICK, RUNNNNNNNNNN. :end:

If MarketTimer would come out and talk, I wouldn't of had to say anything.....:shock:

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
Hey Rolo,Isn't that how wefound you, or you found us?:) Iwas complaining about spell checker on the wowbb board when you helped me out.
Yup...on the wowbb forum: "I wonder if that's THE 'TSP'? Holy crap, it is!"

The spell-checker worked before...what changed since then? move hosts?

Do you still have the e-mail I sent you to configure aspell? I can resend it if not.

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
The spell-checker worked before...what changed since then? move hosts?

Do you still have the e-mail I sent you to configure aspell? I can resend it if not.

It has worked and stopped working about three times now.
I couldn't find that email but I remember having trouble with aspell also.

[Rolo]

Ah! It was in PMs...I forwarded it to you, check yer tsp inbox.

Keep me posted.