Any advice?

[Kentucky]

Hello fellow TSPers.

I am a 21 year federal employee, been in the TSP for as long as possible, but have lost a LOT this past 13 months. My investment strategy has definately been poor. (Originally, after the drop last October, I just hung on and kept expecting things to improve before I finally had lost so much that I finally got out.)

Anyhow, I am now feeling as thought we have reached a bottom (or near bottom) and am thinking about jumping back in. Any advice?

[Kentucky]

Oh yeah, I should admit that I felt that way (that we had reached the bottom) and got partially back in at the first of November, only to lose an additional 5+% in a week at which time I got back out .... using my 2 trades during the month in the process.

What do you guys think will happen next week?

[Bullitt]

When you are withdrawing from your TSP in about ~35 years, do you really think what the market does next week matters?

Check out this blog post from today: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=19

Then check out this link: http://newsite.coffeehouseinvestor.com/

At 21 years of age, you should be ECSTATIC that the market just crashed.

[Frixxxx]

When you are withdrawing from your TSP in about ~35 years, do you really think what the market does next week matters?

Check out this blog post from today: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=19

Then check out this link: http://newsite.coffeehouseinvestor.com/

At 21 years of age, you should be ECSTATIC that the market just crashed.

I think the 21 is his years of service.....So the only ecstasy may be in pill form for KY.:laugh:

[Bullitt]

Aye! I misunderstood Kentucky. I'm very sorry about my comments.

[Kentucky]

I think the 21 is his years of service.....So the only ecstasy may be in pill form for KY.:laugh:


Frixx is correct, I have been working for 21 years. Ah to be 21 again!

[Birchtree]

Your first mistake was getting out when most of the water has already been drained from the pool - prior to that you didn't actually have a loss, you were summarily devalued that's all. Now you have to get back in ASAP because we have seen the bottom and this market can rally with a vengeance from our current levels and perhaps never look back. On this board I'm affectionately known as a contrarian cycle rider and all my assets remain intact and that includes my TSP account. It's very important that you maximize your contributions and dollar cost average into any direction we go from here - DCAing is the redeemer of many a porfolio mistake. A 100% C fund position will reward you the most from this level IMHO. Heck, the SPX has already made a 20% rebound from the Nov. 20th bottom. Courage to stay the course is what you need most in this current compressed cycle - if you look at history you will see that in all cases the market rebounded in as nearly a dramatic fashion as it fell.

[McDuck]

Your first mistake was getting out when most of the water has already been drained from the pool - prior to that you didn't actually have a loss, you were summarily devalued that's all. Now you have to get back in ASAP because we have seen the bottom and this market can rally with a vengeance from our current levels and perhaps never look back. On this board I'm affectionately known as a contrarian cycle rider and all my assets remain intact and that includes my TSP account. It's very important that you maximize your contributions and dollar cost average into any direction we go from here - DCAing is the redeemer of many a porfolio mistake. A 100% C fund position will reward you the most from this level IMHO. Heck, the SPX has already made a 20% rebound from the Nov. 20th bottom. Courage to stay the course is what you need most in this current compressed cycle - if you look at history you will see that in all cases the market rebounded in as nearly a dramatic fashion as it fell.

Kentucky,

I wouldn't take this guy's advise. On this board, he's affectionately known as a permabull.

I would recommend using the Last Month's Best Fund Method (LMBFM) and use your 2 IFTs to go-to and back-from another fund when it is a no-brainer good move.

Sorry that you have had a bad time in TSP recently.

Greg

[ATCJeff]

Kentucky,

I wouldn't take this guy's advise. On this board, he's affectionately known as a permabull.

I would recommend using the Last Month's Best Fund Method (LMBFM) and use your 2 IFTs to go-to and back-from another fund when it is a no-brainer good move.

Sorry that you have had a bad time in TSP recently.

Greg

Easy there Greg. Birch has many followers on this board. Yes he's a buy and hold type investor. But to say not to follow his advice is going to far. Show me a "no brainer" move. I'm pretty sure under the two IFT's that strategy is a thing of the past.

[Birchtree]

There are worse things than being a permabull - besides I like the sweet smell of superlative bull manure. Also got a great bath today in golden bull tinky. Cyclical bulls are born deep in despair when most investors and speculators have given up hope of stocks ever rising again. By buying aggressively late in bears when people are disgusted with stocks, contrarian traders can make a fortune in the inevitable subsequent cyclical bulls. When better to buy low than when practically no one is brave enough to buy. 82% of our leaders are on the lilly pad are fully bearish and pessimistic looking for a further decline - not. Capitulation is not in my vocabulary - if you are out hurry and get back in - there is more risk being out now.

[ATCJeff]

Also got a great bath today in golden bull tinky.

Birch you've gotta lay off the golden shower analogies (sic)!:sick:



- if you are out hurry and get back in - there is more risk being out now.

Not sure we are there yet!

Happy Thanksgiving, brother.

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/8/8_5_19.gif

[Birchtree]

Every major U.S. equity index reached and exceeded their respective 200 month moving averages to the downside in October - it's a generational bottom and now is the time to fill up one's pockets full of nuggets. I plan to keep picking up my cherished wall flowers - some were really dancing today. I'd tell Kentucky to get back up on his horse and ride.

[PessOptimist]

Welcome from another newcomer.

Don't let any of the replies scare you away. Stay. Read. Learn.

This is a very diverse group of people with very diverse opinions on TSP investing.

Read everything and everyone. Check out the links they provide. You will get to know them through their posts. As I said, very diverse.

I have learned so much since discovering this place. Ask questions. If it is about investing you get a lot of answers/opinions. If it is in other places such as the lounge...you are on your own. But all are very kind, in their own way.

The investment strategy to me (and I just let my TSP do it's thing for over 10 years at 40G 30C and 30F) depends on when you actually are planning on retiring and when you are planning on taking money out.

21 years fed service doesn't necessarily mean ready to retire. Let people know and then they can advise you better.

Remember it's just advice. They are all confused about what the market is doing.

Best of luck.

Dave

[KevinD]

Welcome Kentucky! I see you've met the gang. :D

[nnuut]

Welcome to the Message Board Kentucky. I'm not sure we have hit the bottom, nobody is, currently 100% "G".
Best of luck,
NOrman:D

[FUTURESTRADER]

[QUOTE=Birchtree;196416] Heck, the SPX has already made a 20% rebound from the Nov. 20th bottom. QUOTE]

good point, Birch

[amoeba]

[quote=Birchtree;196416] Heck, the SPX has already made a 20% rebound from the Nov. 20th bottom. QUOTE]

good point, Birch

Yeah, and the point is, if the market went up 20% rise in a week's time, it's not a good time to invest. The last three such rallies were sold off, to make lower lows each time. Alot of trading range volatility nowadays, you could make out - or you could take some lumps.

[tsptalk]

Welcome Kentucky!

[ATCJeff]

Welcome aboard.

[Steadygain]

Hello fellow TSPers.

I am a 21 year federal employee, been in the TSP for as long as possible, but have lost a LOT this past 13 months. My investment strategy has definately been poor. (Originally, after the drop last October, I just hung on and kept expecting things to improve before I finally had lost so much that I finally got out.)

Anyhow, I am now feeling as thought we have reached a bottom (or near bottom) and am thinking about jumping back in. Any advice?


VERY FEW DID NOT LOSE A WHOLE LOT OVER THE PAST 13 MONTHS

If you jumped out a month or more prior - then you have actually saved some greater loss. This upward movement is very deceiving my friend and you have to look at the whole picture. Check my thread out for the more recent FACTS on where the Economy is in real terms of GDP and other KEY FEATURES.

Expect things to get worse and new lows to be achieved. In all liklihood the worse is yet to come. It's very tough being an active Member and not getting caught up in the 'daily charts' and hearing people talking about rallies and such.

Don't be afraid to stay in safety and just mingle and get to know everyone. This is a very cool place.

Later dude,

Steady :cool::cool:

[Kentucky]

Everyone....

I just wanted to say Hi, and thanks for your comments and advice.

I never expected so many responses, but I do greatly appreciate everyones thoughts. As for me, well, my thoughts lie somewehre in the middle. I think we are close to the bottom, and am considering getting back in partially (maybe up to 25%), but I am still reluctant ... especially seeing that the futures are down again this morning (Dow futures are down by -184.00 as of right now).

As someone in the responses wrote, most gains over the past few months have been followed by a new drop to new lows. I think I will wait for a few days and see what happens before deciding what to do.

And as for my decision to "get out", well, I got out the first of October and sat in the G fund making a 3% return while the stock market dropped 1,000 points, so my getting out was not so bad ... I just wish I had gotten out sooner!

Anyhow, someone asked when I planned to retire. I will not be eligible, age wise, for at least 11 more years ... so maybe I can make msot of this back (its just that I was planning on makeinga b unch more over the next 11 years and retireing on more favorable conditions, now I have to hope to get back to where I was a year and half ago.)

[dannyboy]

Everyone....

I just wanted to say Hi, and thanks for your comments and advice.

I never expected so many responses, but I do greatly appreciate everyones thoughts. As for me, well, my thoughts lie somewehre in the middle. I think we are close to the bottom, and am considering getting back in partially (maybe up to 25%), but I am still reluctant ... especially seeing that the futures are down again this morning (Dow futures are down by -184.00 as of right now).

As someone in the responses wrote, most gains over the past few months have been followed by a new drop to new lows. I think I will wait for a few days and see what happens before deciding what to do.

And as for my decision to "get out", well, I got out the first of October and sat in the G fund making a 3% return while the stock market dropped 1,000 points, so my getting out was not so bad ... I just wish I had gotten out sooner!

Anyhow, someone asked when I planned to retire. I will not be eligible, age wise, for at least 11 more years ... so maybe I can make msot of this back (its just that I was planning on makeinga b unch more over the next 11 years and retireing on more favorable conditions, now I have to hope to get back to where I was a year and half ago.)

**************************************************
:) From another newbie,
If I were you I'd just go ahead and stay in the G, As much as possible. This market is really bad and this is the (worst part?) of a terrible downturn. There is no real hope in sight and the some say it's gonna stay this way until late 2010. Follow the leaders and proceed with caution. :notrust:

[Gumby]

Expect things to get worse and new lows to be achieved. In all liklihood the worse is yet to come. It's very tough being an active Member and not getting caught up in the 'daily charts' and hearing people talking about rallies and such.

Don't be afraid to stay in safety and just mingle and get to know everyone. This is a very cool place.

Later dude,

Steady :cool::cool:

Very good advice Steady! :)

[Kentucky]

Very good advice Steady! :)


yeah, thanks Steady ...

And as they say, Steady as she goes!

[mick504]

Hi kentucky....isn't that Daniel Boone country! I was 100% G for many months but now I'm back in the C fund 100%...a little sooner or I should say higher 'around 900' than I wanted to be. My target was to get in around 800 on the S&P. Personally I would get in or hope for a lower low but don't wait too long. I'm sure others on the board will disagree! The economy really sucks right now; however alot of people are waiting to get in and by the time they get in the S&P may be past the mark! I do believe that in order to maximize returns and minimize losses a person needs to move from C, S, I to G and back again. The G fund is your safety net when the mkt slides down! If you don't want to walk up the hill again you have to get off the trolley car before it goes down the other side. I know it's easier said than done! But that's the idea! JL :cheesy: Good luck investing!