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amoeba
10-09-2008, 03:25 PM
awe come on:
OUTLOOK:
I see nothing but pitch black darkness, with the S&P down another 3%, and the latest strong decline at 3 pm today. And all this before the holiday season and some grim retail outlook. omigod.


REGRET:
$700B wasted on bad paper. $300B proposed to bailout home loaners (not to be confused with owners) who lied on applications, didn't put money down, and aren't making payments.

Investors are telling you what they think of this. It isn't working, it's bad policy, and won't work. From the looks of the economy and near term outlook, the government may be better off saving these big expenditures for people who need it for direct essentials, if (and probably when), this economy shows a more severe, and more prolonged, downturn in the next 3-6 months.

Why not spend $700B starting a mass transportation system that is not based on individual automobiles? That could keep some people employed and do something beneficial. $700B can do alot better things than buying bad paper.

hessian
10-10-2008, 05:51 PM
Today's G7 news announcement - MORE HOPE!!


“Hope” is a Sell Signal
Both President Bush and Ben Bernanke spoke on Tuesday, and there were points when both seemed to be on the verge of tears. They know that the situation is hopeless.
During the week before the House first voted down the TARP, CNBC constantly ran a message on the screen: “Hope on the Horizon”. That was a sell signal. On the weekend before the House voted down the TARP, news stories were filled with the words “hope” and “hopeful” when describing the prospects for the House passing the TARP. That was a sell signal.
Numerous times we have seen various things announced and implemented. They have all been sell signals. Just today, the market rallied up a bit before Bernanke’s speech. The market was “hoping” that Bernanke would announce a rate cut, which never happens during such a speech. That was a sell signal. I shorted right into that foolish hope.
I’m thinking that I can short hope all the way down to the bottom. Once there is no hope, I will know to stop shorting. How does the hope end? The market beats it out of traders by slamming their heads into the concrete over and over. Which brings us to the next topic:
Should We Forget About Rallies?
We have all been trying to spot the beginning of the next rally. Perhaps instead we should be looking at the October 2002 low and trying to estimate when we will arrive there, and subsequently plunge through. This economy seems to be in far worse shape than the 2002 economy, so why not? The market seems intent on proceeding down in a straight line. Why argue?
How to Short Rallies When there are No Rallies
Suppose the S&P 500 drops 80 points in the morning, and then makes an intra-day bounce of 40 points? Guess what? You have a nice 40-point rally to short.
Maybe my pessimism here will be a contrary indicator. We will see. I dare this market to rally. I double-dog dare it!
http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-11 (http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-11)

Silverbird
10-11-2008, 08:09 AM
Rah Rah Rah! Hope Hope Hope! Sorry, Bush, Paulson, and Berneke, you all look awful in those circle skirts, and your pompoms are shedding.

XL-entLady
10-11-2008, 09:55 AM
Rah Rah Rah! Hope Hope Hope! Sorry, Bush, Paulson, and Berneke, you all look awful in those circle skirts, and your pompoms are shedding.
LOL! What a picture! :laugh: And they can't make a pyramid worth a darn either! :toung:

Thanks for the grin! :D

Lady

Birchtree
10-11-2008, 03:45 PM
We all know the Donkey created this mess - do you want more of the same with a Nobama administration. I'd rather have an old man that can be trusted in office than a smooth politician that can't be trusted. Nobama took all kinds of money from FNN and FRE to support the social engineering that was going on, he was the #2 man with the deepest pockets to fill. The truth is now known as mandated subprime.

James48843
10-11-2008, 05:14 PM
Ah Birch- so far off the mark- but I gotta love ya anyway.


P.S.- I saw Paulson talk on Friday. He had a press conference Friday night.

I must say- that the man simply cannot inspire confidence in the market.

They NEED to get someone else in that job- at least to be the spokeperson. What I saw what an incredibly scared man, trying his best not to commit to anything positive, that could possibly come back on him later.

FDR said "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself".

Paulson, on friday, said we're doing everything we can, we are trying everything we can. But when you think about what he ACTUALLY said, it made no sense at all, and made it sound like they didn't have a clue.


Yes, they need to get someone to replace Paulson, at least to talk to the press.

here is four minutes of Paulson "dancing" around the press:


IwONxDvTweY

James48843
10-11-2008, 05:22 PM
The President goes on TV and explains why the stock market is crashing.



SZSy5JERmiY


Finally, he's starting the "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself" speech.


We need a lot more of these speeches to calm things down.

From yesterday afternoon- 10/10/2008.

Birchtree
10-11-2008, 05:43 PM
I look at Barney Frank and I see that small mouth and I always wonder how he does it. Am I perverted or what?

XL-entLady
10-11-2008, 05:52 PM
Am I perverted or what?
Yes.... :D:laugh::laugh:

Lady

XL-entLady
10-11-2008, 06:00 PM
I'd rather have an old man that can be trusted in office ...
If 72-year-old McCain had picked a running mate with some financial expertise (oh, I don't know, hm-m-m-m, starts with a Mitt and ends with a Romney, maybe) then I would be thinking that I should vote red instead of blue. But he made the political decision to choose the smallest child at the holiday dinner table, and she has just spilled the punch.

Wrong thread for this but I still think that's a decision where McCain wishes he could have a do-over. :worried:

Lady

Birchtree
10-11-2008, 10:57 PM
She'll have four years to prepare herself for the Palin/Rice ticket. Now that would be a winning combination.

Tempest
10-12-2008, 01:37 AM
Rice/Palin ;)

amoeba
10-22-2008, 10:54 PM
awe come on:
OUTLOOK:
I see nothing but pitch black darkness, with the S&P down another 3%, and the latest strong decline at 3 pm today. And all this before the holiday season and some grim retail outlook. omigod.


REGRET:
$700B wasted on bad paper. $300B proposed to bailout home loaners (not to be confused with owners) who lied on applications, didn't put money down, and aren't making payments.

Investors are telling you what they think of this. It isn't working, it's bad policy, and won't work. From the looks of the economy and near term outlook, the government may be better off saving these big expenditures for people who need it for direct essentials, if (and probably when), this economy shows a more severe, and more prolonged, downturn in the next 3-6 months.

Why not spend $700B starting a mass transportation system that is not based on individual automobiles? That could keep some people employed and do something beneficial. $700B can do alot better things than buying bad paper.


Well - that was one big expensive bailout that isn't working, is it?, and we're out 700B, not counting the losses in the stock market, which obviously don't include me. Its G fund, and F if I get frisky, until mid-2010.

What a waste of money. I would say I can't wait for the election, but I don't think either candidate has a clue on this one.

mick504
10-23-2008, 02:08 AM
I agree....I think because alot of people hate Bush or at least his policies so they won't or refuse to connect this mess to Barney F. and friends. Also Barney's friend Mr. Dodd and the heads of Freddy and Fanny won't be blamed cause Bush was in charge and it's 'all his fault'. I heard that Barney had a friend in either Freddy or Fanny mae....a strange liaison there...that would be interesting to pursue if anything. Well it seems we may be moving toward socialism if McCain doesn't win. The States will love getting more Medicaid, M-SCHIP money etc. The gravy train cometh; hope not!

350zCommTech
10-23-2008, 08:17 AM
Well it seems we may be moving toward socialism if McCain doesn't win.

LOL! What do you call what is happening right now with all these bailouts?

I wish people would just drop this partisan BS. They were all to blame. They all had there had in the cookie jar. Neither Obama nor McCain can fix this.

We need to come together, pick up our pitch forks and torches, head down to Wall St./DC hang all these greedy bastards.

ChemEng
10-23-2008, 08:23 AM
Well it seems we may be moving toward socialism if McCain doesn't win.It seems that when we have a government buying stocks of companies--we are already there.

Viva_La_Migra
10-23-2008, 02:07 PM
It seems that when we have a government buying stocks of companies--we are already there.
Not quite. When the government starts seizing the stocks, rather than buying the stocks, then we will be there.

nnuut
10-23-2008, 02:21 PM
Well it seems we may be moving toward socialism if McCain doesn't win.

There is only one thing I can say about that statement. I AGREE!!!:nuts:

jimijr
10-23-2008, 10:26 PM
"We need to come together, pick up our pitch forks and torches, head down to Wall St./DC hang all these greedy bastards."

The greed is fine. It is the CRIMINALS that should hang (metaphorically). Why do we hear so little about enforcement of the criminal statutes?

350zCommTech
10-23-2008, 10:34 PM
"We need to come together, pick up our pitch forks and torches, head down to Wall St./DC hang all these greedy bastards."

The greed is fine. It is the CRIMINALS that should hang (metaphorically). Why do we hear so little about enforcement of the criminal statutes?

Well, obviously, they don't want to put their friends or themselves in jail. But you knew that.:)

Silverbird
10-24-2008, 09:36 AM
What criminal Statutes? A lot of this stuff was perfectly legal. :mad: Unfettered capitalism, we luv you.

alevin
11-02-2008, 02:30 PM
There's a difference between state capitalism and socialism. I intuitively knew there was, but Henry K explains it far better than I ever could-AND also the consequences of state capitalism.....

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JJ30Dj07.html


Since the Federal government is and has been operating on a fiscal deficit, these funds can only come out of future tax revenue and/or more fiscal deficits.

Regional banks are particularly clogged with whole residential mortgage loans that have not been securitized and sold to dispersed investors. This team is working with bank regulators to identify which types of loans to purchase first, how to value them, and which purchase mechanism will best meet policy objectives "to protect taxpayers by making the best use of their money".

The Treasury's insurance program on troubled assets looks like an attempt to insure losses that have already occurred, in violation of the basic principle of insurance.

The FDIC, invoking a "systemic risk" clause in Federal banking law, will provide unlimited insurance to all non-interest-bearing accounts primarily used by businesses. The cost of this insurance will come from user fees paid by banks outside of the $700 billion TARP. It appears that the US has joined the global race to guarantee bank deposits to prevent US bank deposits from fleeing to countries with safer guarantee levels. This is billed as a global coordination of all central banks while in reality is a sign of rising financial nationalism. Learn something new everyday. Other side of the Lookingglass, Alice?

It is not possible to help distressed homeowners and protect taxpayer
http://asianmedia.com/GAAN/www/delivery/lg.php?bannerid=27&campaignid=23&zoneid=36&channel_ids=,&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atimes.com%2Fatimes%2FGlobal_ Economy%2FJJ30Dj05.html&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atimes.com%2Fatimes%2FGlo bal_Economy%2FJJ30Dj04.html&cb=14819c9fa8
money at the same time. [I'm actually NOT in favor of helping homeowners who bit off more than they could chew on speculation of ever-rising prices and refinance as you go ploys. If I'd gotten reassigned to a location I couldn't afford to buy with a 30-year mortgage with fixed interest rate, I'd have become a renter again rather than saddle myself with excessive cumulative mortgage interest. The possibility loomed for me between 2003-2006.]

Exxon shows how
The use of defeasance in modern corporate finance began in 1982 [when interest rates were skyhigh thanks to Volker to get inflation under control] when Exxon bought and put into an irrevocable trust $312 million of US government securities yielding 14% to provide for the repayment of principal and interest on $515 million of old debt
paying 5.8% to 6.7% and maturing in 2009. Exxon removed the defeased debt from its balance sheet and added $132 million - the after tax difference between $515 million and $312 million - to its earnings in that quarter. In-substance defeasance may well the magic bullet to get out from the curse of over leverage.

Markets are not the best intermediaries of long-term value because, for market economies, markets are the prime intermediaries of short-term value. This is why economist Hyman Minsky thought that a substantial public sector is needed to moderate short-term volatility in the private market sector. When the private market sector dominates the economy, the price regime will be excessively tilted by short-term conditions.

When market power is not equally distributed among market participants, a free market is replaced by a coerced market. A coerced market is one when one side, either buyers or seller, has more market power. Uneven market power distorted prices to generate market inefficiency. A failed market is one when there are no buyers or sellers at any price.

The ultimate coerced market is one where the government, which by definition possesses overwhelming market power by virtue of its ability to print money by fiat, is the only buyer or seller.

Market fundamentalists are right in their belief that government should stay away from the market to avoid destroying the market. Yet they are wrong in thinking that government should deregulate markets to keep it free. And above all, they are dangerously wrong in thinking that markets can satisfy all economic needs.

The market was more honest than most paid pundits and special interest policymakers. Market participants knew the crisis was not merely a passing liquidity crunch but a widespread insolvency created by excessive asset value unsupported by compensatory revenue. Insolvency will translate into sharp declines in asset price. The government can destroy the market in the name of saving it but the laws of market cannot be negated by government intervention.



Government does some things better
The truth is that there are large segments of the economy that only government can handle effectively and efficiently, As Minsky insightfully pointed out, the public sector performs a much-needed function in stabilizing the business cycle in the private sector. A society without an adequate public sector leans towards economic anarchy that will eventually implode. [I guess right-sizing the government is a better goal than "small government", eh?]

Some critics have mistakenly complained that the US government has turned to socialism for a solution to the current financial crisis in a capitalistic system. Yet what the US government has done is merely turn failed market capitalism into state capitalism. Nationalization alone does not lead to socialism.

In a capitalist state, state-owned enterprises do not entertain such populist goals. State capitalism continues to oppress workers for the benefit of capital while the state represents the interest of capitalists rather than workers. State capitalism subscribes to the trickle-down theory - saving the banks to save the citizenry. What is needed is for government to save the citizenry by direct assistance with job creation and wage guarantees, not inter-bank loan guarantees.

Something for all of us to chew on.

GYPSYJ
11-06-2008, 11:03 PM
I was hoping to see some movement after the election...hmmmmmmm

ATCJeff
11-06-2008, 11:10 PM
She'll have four years to prepare herself for the Palin/Rice ticket. Now that would be a winning combination.


No way, there both to far right......

Tempest
11-07-2008, 02:21 PM
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Miss_Piggy
11-07-2008, 07:00 PM
That was funny Tempest. Not sure this is the right thread but here's a follow up - not quite as funny.


d6DwN-zt-24

TerpTrader
01-04-2009, 11:33 AM
That was funny Tempest. Not sure this is the right thread but here's a follow up - not quite as funny.

LOL...very clever. Great animation.


Regarding the Short-Term, the S&P has been supported in the 850-857 area for 4 weeks straight now on the weekly chart :

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p60409767416

Additionally, the S&P has finally closed above the 10 MA on the weekly chart - the first time since the last week of August '08!

We're also seeing a cross of the fast/slow MACD lines from well oversold territory.

I can see a test of the 20 MA on the way. Currently it's at approx 1000.

I'll likely get back in on dippage soon.

dpmp
01-23-2009, 10:45 AM
You pervert you! :toung:

Birchtree
01-23-2009, 04:52 PM
That's one of the 120 reasons my wife married me. Where is our Miss Piggy?