Larry Braaten
10-08-2008, 01:34 AM
I just started looking at this WEB site and I think it is great. I've been with the goernment just over 24 years and made every bad move possible in the TSP. I grew up watching my dad play the market and thought the DOW should always be around 7,000. My dad said when everyone starts talking about the market, it is time to get out. So naturally over history, I was very conservative and stayed in the G fund when the market was going crazy. You guessed it, I got in when the market turned for the worst. My wife worked for Merrill Lynch (Bank of America?) years ago and said just leave the money in the market. I found this hard to do but still only made a handful of moves until recently. I have enough money in now where a percent is a lot. I think retirement funds in the market gave great stability to the market by adding billions. The times have changed now with people able to make quicker moves with more options and I wonder what it has done to the market. I have no doubt that people are now rushing to move into the G fund. Lately I have noticed the volatility from day to day in the market and here is my naive thinking. I wait for a big drop, at least 5%, and then move into the C fund. If the market is up before the deadline to get out, I get out. Even 1% a month would be a great return. I would take 12% plus the G fund for the year in a heart beat. So the first three months I tried this strategy, I looked like a genius. This month I went all-in to the C fund after the significant loss on Thursday, October 2, 2008, (and for the week) and back to the G fund on Friday after the S&P was up 4.5% before the deadline to move. When the house approved the bail-out, I thought I was fairly smart only to lose 1.35%. I figured out I am up 2.91% for the year - stayed in the C fund too long early in the year. The G fund has me beat! I am out of moves for the month, which is probably the best situation for me to be in. I know there are no guarantees, but what is a decent strategy and flaws with my thinking? Thanks