View Full Version : Transfer 11/10 for 11/11/04
tsptalk
11-09-2004, 10:39 PM
I am initiating a transfer Wednesday morning going 100% S fund effective Veteran's Day, Thursday, November 11th. It is historically a very good day.
I will most likely go back to 50% G, 50% S effective Monday 11/15.
It's a "wiggle" play because I still think we need a breather, but the 11/11 numbers are too strong to pass up for a play.
Tom
How strong are the numbers?
tsptalk wrote:
I am initiating a transfer Wednesday morning going 100% S fund effective Veteran's Day, Thursday, November 11th. It is historically a very good day.
I will most likely go back to 50% G, 50% S effective Monday 11/15.
It's a "wiggle" play because I still think we need a breather, but the 11/11 numbers are too strong to pass up for a play.
Tom
Hey Tom, I hate to go against ya, but I think you may be wrong on this. If you look back since 9-11-01, I VERY historical date don't ya think, the market has dropped every year either on Veteran's day or on the day that it was recognized. I think that when it comes to holiday's or other significant dates, people should only look back to charts since 9-11-01.
Remember, Bush won the election, folks may be a little worried "something" might happen.
Now the day "after" is a pretty good day and I'd love to jump back in for it, unfortunately we can't with TSP. So it's pretty much a trade off. Two out of the three years the day following Veteren's day has ended up higher than the day before Veteran's day so you'll probably end up okay, unless something really does happen. The only reason I'm getting out is because my system is telling to.
Good luck,
M_M
mlk_man wrote:
tsptalk wrote:
I am initiating a transfer Wednesday morning going 100% S fund effective Veteran's Day, Thursday, November 11th. It is historically a very good day.
I will most likely go back to 50% G, 50% S effective Monday 11/15.
It's a "wiggle" play because I still think we need a breather, but the 11/11 numbers are too strong to pass up for a play.
Tom
Hey Tom, I hate to go against ya, but I think you may be wrong on this. If you look back since 9111, I VERY historical date don't ya think, the market has dropped every year either on Veteran's day or on the day that it was recognized. I think that when it comes to holiday's or other significant dates, people should only look back to charts since 9111.
Remember, Bush won the election, folks may be a little worried "something" might happen.
Now the day "after" is a pretty good day and I'd love to jump back in for it, unfortunately we can't with TSP. So it's pretty much a trade off. Two out of the three years the day following Veteren's day has ended up higher than the day before Veteran's day so you'll probably end up okay, unless something really does happen. The only reason I'm getting out is because my system is telling to.
Good luck,
M_M
As you may already know, I'm getting out because the last 3rate hikes have resulted in RED days 1 to 2 days after the hike.
Therefore, tomorrow may very well be RED.
God Bless:^
smine
11-10-2004, 08:34 AM
those of us who followed rod's advise with 100% s did well. his strategy thus far has netted me well lately. well done, rod. ;)
tsptalk
11-10-2004, 08:37 AM
Mike wrote:
How strong are the numbers?
Positive 78% of the time. About as good as you get, but still down 22% so no guarantees.
tsptalk
11-10-2004, 08:41 AM
mlk_man wrote:
Hey Tom, I hate to go against ya, but I think you may be wrong on this. If you look back since 9111, I VERY historical date don't ya think, the market has dropped every year either on Veteran's day or on the day that it was recognized. I think that when it comes to holiday's or other significant dates, people should only look back to charts since 9111.
Thanks for the warning mlk. Plus the fact that this year it is the day after an interest rate hike makes it a wild card unknown. Again no guarantees today. ;)
JSRoss01
11-10-2004, 08:46 AM
What system is telling you to? and where do you find historical data for a specific day?
JSRoss01
11-10-2004, 08:48 AM
Woops I ment to say What system MLK MAN are you using and where can I find historical data for a specific day?
smine wrote:
those of us who followed rod's advise with 100% s did well. his strategy thus far has netted me well lately. well done, rod. ;)
Thanx!:^
JSRoss01 wrote:
Woops I ment to say What system MLK MAN are you using and where can I find historical data for a specific day?
For a particular day, go to tsp.gov then click on Share Prices. But, their's only goes back about 6 months.
God Bless!:D
JSRoss01
11-10-2004, 09:38 AM
Thaks Are there any other sites?:shock:
JSRoss01 wrote:
What system is telling you to? and where do you find historical data for a specific day?
GO to the finance section of Yahoo.com. Just track the indices or the ETF's that track the indices. For ex: S fund is VXF
M_M
vectorman
11-10-2004, 10:41 AM
Hey clester, how's the chimp in charge today? See you tomorrow.
I moved into the G fund effective after the closing bell on Jun 30, Aug 10 and Sep 21. Each time I lucked out and protected my assets for a few days while the (C,S & I) funds had a loss. To me, the market is like an animal. Just when you think you understand it; it turns on you. What worked before may not work out again, especiallyif different conditions are thrown into the mix. But sometimes it does. In my very limited opinion, this interest rate hike resembles close to what I experienced during the Sep 21th hike. The first leg of the bull market wasrevealling itself, off and running since Aug 16. The market was on a great run until Sep 21. If you can recall, the market was flat to down most of the day. Soon after the rate hike was announced the market had small rally ( the I fund did great that day). For those who where not out into the G fund effectve after the closing bell, experienced a several day setback. The great thing for the buy and hold people was that it was short live since we werein an apparent bull market. I had a great run up until now and I know a pullback is coming. To me, the rate hike may be just the excuse that some investors are looking for to take some extremely good profits off the table.If there is a rally tomorrow, great. But I would feel worse if I lost a big portion of mythree week gain compare to a one or two day gain. Cash in hand outweighs the uncertainty of tomorrow. Question Tom, for the positive weight that you are using for tomorrow being positve, how many times does that include a rate hike the day before? Thanks. Good luck all.
40-c, 60- s, moving 100-g.
puertorico
11-10-2004, 10:56 AM
I was temp to move too but I just put everything to G
GooD Luck Tom :)
vectorman
11-10-2004, 12:00 PM
Hey Rod, appreciate your comments. Unless you are restricted some how. I find that I can goback to June 02, 2003, to check price of shares. I use this method alot to make comparisons. http://www.tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html (http://www.tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html)
At the upper centerof the share-price page you should be able to select how far back you want to look.
TheProphet
11-10-2004, 12:39 PM
100% agree with you... 100 % S... but a small and quick correction seems coming soon also... :^
vectorman wrote:
Hey Rod, appreciate your comments. Unless you are restricted some how. I find that I can goback to June 02, 2003, to check price of shares. I use this method alot to make comparisons. http://www.tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html (http://www.tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html)
At the upper centerof the share-price page you should be able to select how far back you want to look.
You are correct. I forgot about that, although I've used it before.
Well, today may not be as GREEN as we had hoped for.
BigJames
11-10-2004, 03:26 PM
Went 100% s fund before deadline today. First time ever had all the eggs in one basket. Can you say nervous. As you can see I am still cherry enough to become emotionally atached to moves such as this. Oh well, twenty odd years to retirement. I suppose I should be taking more chances.
::crosses fingers and opens 1lb bag of twizzlers::
tsptalk
11-10-2004, 05:33 PM
vectorman wrote:
Question Tom, for the positive weight that you are using for tomorrow being positve, how many times does that include a rate hike the day before?
Probably never. Not sure.
Rod wrote:
vectorman wrote:
Hey Rod, appreciate your comments. Unless you are restricted some how. I find that I can goback to June 02, 2003, to check price of shares. I use this method alot to make comparisons. http://www.tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html (http://www.tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html)
At the upper centerof the share-price page you should be able to select how far back you want to look.
You are correct. I forgot about that, although I've used it before.
Well, today may not be as GREEN as we had hoped for.
I stand corrected!:u
The S Fund ended up with a 6 cent gain while I thought itwas down at market close. I must have had a brainfart.
God Bless!:^
JerBer
11-11-2004, 07:14 AM
I wonder how the market is going to react to the news of Arafat passing away this morning. I'm thinking since it didn't happen suddenly that it won't be a factor.
Happy Veteran's Day everyone!!
JerBer wrote:
I wonder how the market is going to react to the news of Arafat passing away this morning. I'm thinking since it didn't happen suddenly that it won't be a factor.
Happy Veteran's Day everyone!!
Yeah, I'm sure his impendingdeath was already factored into the market.
smine
11-11-2004, 09:04 AM
tom was right on the money with that call. after much thought smine stayed 35%s 35%c and the rest in g, did alright yesterday and will be poised for whatever happens friday. market open but again we are not allowed to play. we really don't receive full financial service from tsp.
Hey Tom, after a couple of inane moves, I was ready to follow any body (note to self, its okay to stop beating yourself up after some really stupid stupid moves). And your comments yesterday appeared on cue, but after reading what it appeared as "the majority", I backed off from going 100% S fund. But you evidently reading it right.
As a matter of fact I was tempted to move evrything back to the G--yesterday I was 50% G, 20% C, 20%I, and 10% S. As it tuned out I got so involed in reading financial data/news the deadline for making changes got behind me. Soooo, I kept the same position-as stated above.
I probably will move more to today back to G, just don't know at this time...the saga continues.
Good call Tom
tsptalk
11-11-2004, 11:28 AM
JerBer wrote:
I wonder how the market is going to react to the news of Arafat passing away this morning. I'm thinking since it didn't happen suddenly that it won't be a factor.
Happy Veteran's Day everyone!!
Next time Arafat dies (is this #2 or 3?) we'll know how to play it. ;)
tsptalk
11-11-2004, 11:31 AM
retire rich wrote:
As it tuned out I got so involed in reading financial data/news the deadline for making changes got behind me. Soooo, I kept the same position-as stated above.
See. Those financial publicationscan make you money. :D
Yeah, it worked out all this time-I didn't mess it up. Tom, what is your game plan for the weekend...stay with this upswing or chill and wait get back in mmonday or tuesday?
tsptalk
11-11-2004, 12:19 PM
retire rich wrote:
Tom, what is your game plan for the weekend...stay with this upswing or chill and wait get back in mmonday or tuesday?
My tentative plan was to go back to 50 / 50 for Monday (Friday morning transfer). So far I haven't changedmy mind. Let's see what happens later today and Friday morning.
puertorico
11-11-2004, 06:52 PM
nice very nicecall Tom :D
I'm 100-G :?:D
Pete1
11-11-2004, 07:29 PM
Nice call, Tom. :)
tsptalk wrote:
I am initiating a transfer Wednesday morning going 100% S fund effective Veteran's Day, Thursday, November 11th. It is historically a very good day.
I will most likely go back to 50% G, 50% S effective Monday 11/15.
It's a "wiggle" play because I still think we need a breather, but the 11/11 numbers are too strong to pass up for a play.
Tom
Good call Tom!!! :^Making up for earlier in the year? :shock:Just kidding.........:P
Show-me
11-12-2004, 08:35 AM
Fantastic job Tom! I'm becoming a follower. Again wishIfollowed yourmoves.
ALL HAIL TOM!!! lol:P:D
tsptalk
11-12-2004, 08:55 AM
Thanks, but believe me it isn't always this good. You'll be cursing me again before you know it.:?
It seems like whenever I look the worst, the best is about to come. And when I look like a genius, humbling is around the corner. Be careful.
Show-me
11-12-2004, 12:59 PM
tsptalk wrote:
Thanks, but believe me it isn't always this good. You'll be cursing me again before you know it.:?
It seems like whenever I look the worst, the best is about to come. And when I look like a genius, humbling is around the corner. Be careful.
My decisions are my own. Always cautious. Always optimistic.
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