Ready to make some money...

[Hockeyfreak]

I'm 7.5 years out, and have been side tracked for quite a few years from watching my TSP (divorce, custody fight, marriage, custody fight, adopt baby, custody fight...), but am ready to start doing some research and try to follow the dang thing. I know the mantra "search first before asking the question", and have been doing that, but the problem is there is SO MUCH INFORMATION on this board, it gets a little overwhelming if you're coming from close to zero financial knowledge.

Can anyone just point me to a good thread or two explaining the basics of tracking, predicting, and moving (within the new guidelines) your money between the funds? I realize there's as many opinions as there are a--holes, I just want to spend a reasonable amount of time daily to nurse it in the right direction, not break any records. Most financial advisers I've dealt with aren't real interested in helping with your TSP, they want you to invest in their products.

Any help would be appreciated, and thanks in advance! I'll also keep reading!

[nnuut]

Welcome to the message board Hockeyfreak!! Here is a good place to start, but I'd guess you've already been there? I'll send you some more stuff when I get time. Hold on I'm sure other members will stop by and give you a hand. Join in, we talk a lot around here!!:D
Norman
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=50924&postcount=1

[Birchtree]

For the next three years I would suggest you put the money in the C fund and lock it on auto-pilot while you dollar cost average in at lower prices currently and then track the next bull leg up.

[malyla]

For the next three years I would suggest you put the money in the C fund and lock it on auto-pilot while you dollar cost average in at lower prices currently and then track the next bull leg up.

Don't drink the cool aid.
Look at the discussions in the Short Term Fund Strategies and Longer Term Fund Strategies forums for recent discussions on bull vs Bear market strategy. I am a position investor who follows the business cycle to determine when and where to put my money. In a bear market I practice capital perservation where I move my money into G or F and have bi-weekly contributions going into stocks (small money). When the business cycle signals a bull market, I will invest aggressively in the stock market. There is a spreadsheet in my thread showing the backtest of this method to 1991 ( http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=171093&postcount=112 ). Whatever method you choose, Good Luck.

[McDuck]

For the next three years I would suggest you put the money in the C fund and lock it on auto-pilot while you dollar cost average in at lower prices currently and then track the next bull leg up.

Don't listen to this guy. This is what the C-fund has done for the last 2 years.

(Nothing personnel, Birch).

[Birchtree]

Well hey I tried. It's the future that counts not the past - besides Greg aren't you at 100% C fund right now? Or am I mistaken - I'll have to recheck the tracker.

[malyla]

Well hey I tried. It's the future that counts not the past - besides Greg aren't you at 100% C fund right now? Or am I mistaken - I'll have to recheck the tracker.

Treebeard - imho it's the present that matters. The past is about regret, the future is about hope and expectations. The present says 'be careful'. The future will make itself known in the present. Until then, CP is the key. Keep your tail!

[Birchtree]

Expectation is what drives the markets.

[Hockeyfreak]

Well, since I've already been 40% in C, I guess I just took the loss from this week. My current financial adviser, who has been helpful, says to ride it back up. I don't mind this philosophy, but I sure would like to minimize the rides down to make the ride up much sweeter. But I guess everyone else wants that also. That's what this board is about it seems. I've got to educate myself in reading these charts, finding and understanding them myself, and making some decisions of when to jump in and out. I've been looking over threads of TSPkey and other pay sites. Most of the threads are over a year old though. How do those do now with the new movement rules limiting transactions?

[Hockeyfreak]

How do you get your lifetime or yearly average for the TSP? I don't see anything like that on the website or statement. Is this something you have to calculate yourself from all your statements? Should I be tracking this with my Quicken or some other spreadsheet so this info is staring me in the face all the time to keep me motivated??

[malyla]

Well, since I've already been 40% in C, I guess I just took the loss from this week. My current financial adviser, who has been helpful, says to ride it back up. I don't mind this philosophy, but I sure would like to minimize the rides down to make the ride up much sweeter. But I guess everyone else wants that also. That's what this board is about it seems. I've got to educate myself in reading these charts, finding and understanding them myself, and making some decisions of when to jump in and out. I've been looking over threads of TSPkey and other pay sites. Most of the threads are over a year old though. How do those do now with the new movement rules limiting transactions?

Picking a strategy and sticking to it (the hard part) becomes more important than ever with IFT limits. My advice is to look at all the strategies out there and choose one to follow while continuing your education. Bear markets are special IMHO. Bear markets are about reality imposing it's will and regret of past greed. Markets will get better but it will take time to express the regret of past greed. I'm thinking 4th quarter 2010 before expectations will control the market again. I do expect Bear rallys until then and if you can catch those, I envy you. I like XL-ent Lady for picking the rallies from her indicators, but it is tricky going until 2010-2011. Good luck. Time will tell.

On tracking - I use Tom's spreadsheet. It's excellent for weekly, monthly, yearly tracking of your fund. The spreadsheet on the long term strategies I put together (refer to above posts) uses his spreadsheet with some modifications of course. GL

[FUTURESTRADER]

Well, since I've already been 40% in C, I guess I just took the loss from this week. My current financial adviser, who has been helpful, says to ride it back up. I don't mind this philosophy, but I sure would like to minimize the rides down to make the ride up much sweeter. But I guess everyone else wants that also. That's what this board is about it seems. I've got to educate myself in reading these charts, finding and understanding them myself, and making some decisions of when to jump in and out. I've been looking over threads of TSPkey and other pay sites. Most of the threads are over a year old though. How do those do now with the new movement rules limiting transactions?

Actually, tspkey is showing a -2.15% ytd as of 9/12. not too shabby vs. the S&P 500. I tried them before the 2 ift rule, but got greedy and quit them. Am down ~-7.75% ytd myself and wishing i followed '2Easy' in the autotracker, but thats 20/20 hindsight, tho he has timed some pretty amazing ifts. I'm up 22% ytd selling S&P options, a fairly low risk 1.5 to 3.5%/month, averaging 2.25%, and only put 5% into TSP to get the matching. 7.5 years to retirement suggests the L2020 fund, -10.80%.

[McDuck]

Well hey I tried. It's the future that counts not the past - besides Greg aren't you at 100% C fund right now? Or am I mistaken - I'll have to recheck the tracker.

Hockey Freak,

Don't listen to me either.

[tsptalk]

Welcome hockeyfreak! I see you met the gang. :)

[Hockeyfreak]

Actually, tspkey is showing a -2.15% ytd as of 9/12. not too shabby vs. the S&P 500. I tried them before the 2 ift rule, but got greedy and quit them. Am down ~-7.75% ytd myself and wishing i followed '2Easy' in the autotracker, but thats 20/20 hindsight, tho he has timed some pretty amazing ifts. I'm up 22% ytd selling S&P options, a fairly low risk 1.5 to 3.5%/month, averaging 2.25%, and only put 5% into TSP to get the matching. 7.5 years to retirement suggests the L2020 fund, -10.80%.

What do you mean "follow 2easy in the Autotracker"? I saw the forum for Member's accounts, is that what your talking about? Do you wait for them to post and if you agree or think it's a good move, follow it?

Also, what exactly is the rules now. I've never traded daily as some of you have. I'm allowed 2 IFT's per month, but can always transfer all to G anytime?

[Guest2]

Also, what exactly is the rules now. I've never traded daily as some of you have. I'm allowed 2 IFT's per month, but can always transfer all to G anytime?

That is true for the most part. You can move your money twice in a one
month period, to any fund you want. (you can even move from one fund
to another). After your first two moves, you can only go back to the (G).

Only back to the (G) is not all together true. Each day a fund move up or
down, your portfolio percentages change. If you put 25% of your money
into the (C) Fund and lost -1.95% the following day, your portfolio %
in the (C) might look like this (23.54%). If you have your money spread
out in all funds, each fund affects the overall percentages. The reason
why "Only Back To The G Fund" isn't all together true at this point is
because your able to round up those percentages. For example;

Tomorrow, my portfolio might look like this; 75.98%(G) 24.02%(C)
Without anymore unrestricted IFT's left, I still can make a IFT like this;
75.00% (G) 25.00% (C)

In essense, I moved that .98% out of the (G) and put it in the (C).
This can only be done with percentage of less then < 1%. But I would
wait until your more comfortable with the 2 move limit before playing
with the < 1% percentages. Hope I was able to help and not make
you more confused about our abilities. ;)

[DrFaustus]

That is true for the most part. You can move your money twice in a one
month period, to any fund you want. (you can even move from one fund
to another). After your first two moves, you can only go back to the (G).

Only back to the (G) is not all together true. Each day a fund move up or
down, your portfolio percentages change. If you put 25% of your money
into the (C) Fund and lost -1.95% the following day, your portfolio %
in the (C) might look like this (23.54%). If you have your money spread
out in all funds, each fund affects the overall percentages. The reason
why "Only Back To The G Fund" isn't all together true at this point is
because your able to round up those percentages. For example;

Tomorrow, my portfolio might look like this; 75.98%(G) 24.02%(C)
Without anymore unrestricted IFT's left, I still can make a IFT like this;
75.00% (G) 25.00% (C)

In essense, I moved that .98% out of the (G) and put it in the (C).
This can only be done with percentage of less then < 1%. But I would
wait until your more comfortable with the 2 move limit before playing
with the < 1% percentages. Hope I was able to help and not make
you more confused about our abilities. ;)

Dude, you're making my head hurt. :)

[Hockeyfreak]

I think I get the what your saying, but I can say for now I'm not going to be looking at that .98% very closely, even though I understand it could add up to 100s or 1000s of $$. I'm just trying to rudder a little bit instead of just riding in the boat. I'm sure eventually I'll learn enough and get excited enough to do that, and open my own investment account.

I was reading some threads, like this (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5961&highlight=thrifttrading) one that talks about the premium services. What would be the difference between Thrifttrading.com, tspmax.com, and the premium services offered here? I don't mind paying a little for some guidance until I get my feet under me, but ThriftTrading.com seemed pretty outrageous. What's some good guidance for picking between the premium services? I wanted to go aggressive for a few years, but I think it seems like that's not going to happen, I'll just be happy to squeak above G fund.


That is true for the most part. You can move your money twice in a one
month period, to any fund you want. (you can even move from one fund
to another). After your first two moves, you can only go back to the (G).

Only back to the (G) is not all together true. Each day a fund move up or
down, your portfolio percentages change. If you put 25% of your money
into the (C) Fund and lost -1.95% the following day, your portfolio %
in the (C) might look like this (23.54%). If you have your money spread
out in all funds, each fund affects the overall percentages. The reason
why "Only Back To The G Fund" isn't all together true at this point is
because your able to round up those percentages. For example;

Tomorrow, my portfolio might look like this; 75.98%(G) 24.02%(C)
Without anymore unrestricted IFT's left, I still can make a IFT like this;
75.00% (G) 25.00% (C)

In essense, I moved that .98% out of the (G) and put it in the (C).
This can only be done with percentage of less then < 1%. But I would
wait until your more comfortable with the 2 move limit before playing
with the < 1% percentages. Hope I was able to help and not make
you more confused about our abilities. ;)

[Hockeyfreak]

On tracking - I use Tom's spreadsheet. It's excellent for weekly, monthly, yearly tracking of your fund. The spreadsheet on the long term strategies I put together (refer to above posts) uses his spreadsheet with some modifications of course. GL

Would you be referring to the tsptalk08.xls spreadsheet under the calculators? I searched around and could find any other one you were talking about unless I missed it. I have all my statements since 2003, and I'm sure i have them in hardcopy somewhere since 91. What would be the best method of getting myself going on tracking? Entering all the data, or just pick a year and enter the balance, then start? Thanks for all your help.

[malyla]

Would you be referring to the tsptalk08.xls spreadsheet under the calculators? I searched around and could find any other one you were talking about unless I missed it. I have all my statements since 2003, and I'm sure i have them in hardcopy somewhere since 91. What would be the best method of getting myself going on tracking? Entering all the data, or just pick a year and enter the balance, then start? Thanks for all your help.

The tsptalk08.xls is the spreadsheet I started with. It took about 3 months for me to modify it for my purpose, but my spreadsheet is basically Tom's template. I did put another couple worksheets in to track share prices and my fund growth/contraction on a monthly bases. This was the hardest as I had to login to my tsp account and request balance for the first of every month since I began my account. I used the paper trail I had to account for all my contributions and then I downloaded the daily share prices and the monthly returns to track that as well. I may be able to put a template of this spreadsheet together, but I can't promise anything as work is taking up most of my time. GL

[FUTURESTRADER]

What do you mean "follow 2easy in the Autotracker"? I saw the forum for Member's accounts, is that what your talking about? Do you wait for them to post and if you agree or think it's a good move, follow it?

yes..TSPTalk Automated Tracker, link on homepage, 2Easy up 13.63% YTD and still in G today. I don't know if you can log in to the tracker until you have 10 posts or maybe just can't join the tracker till you have 10. Check out the Autotracker Thread for the rules. Just watch what the leaders have done, are doing...just another strategy, but like most strategies, they get hot and cold.

[Hockeyfreak]

yes..TSPTalk Automated Tracker, link on homepage, 2Easy up 13.63% YTD and still in G today. I don't know if you can log in to the tracker until you have 10 posts or maybe just can't join the tracker till you have 10. Check out the Autotracker Thread for the rules. Just watch what the leaders have done, are doing...just another strategy, but like most strategies, they get hot and cold.

Well, I'm almost there. I'm in no hurry, I'm going to ride out the month where I'm at anyway. I'm hoping the 500 will gain back what it lost this week. I'll look at it when I get the posts and see what your talking about. Right now, I'm just going to get my history in either the spreadsheet or Quicken, and see how bad I've been doing.

[Hockeyfreak]

The tsptalk08.xls is the spreadsheet I started with. It took about 3 months for me to modify it for my purpose, but my spreadsheet is basically Tom's template. I did put another couple worksheets in to track share prices and my fund growth/contraction on a monthly bases. This was the hardest as I had to login to my tsp account and request balance for the first of every month since I began my account. I used the paper trail I had to account for all my contributions and then I downloaded the daily share prices and the monthly returns to track that as well. I may be able to put a template of this spreadsheet together, but I can't promise anything as work is taking up most of my time. GL

Thanks for the offer. If you get time, I'm sure I'll use it, but don't worry about it if it's a big deal.

One question I had was about my TSP loans (see first post as to why I have loans!). I know they only gather the interest that I'm paying myself on the loan, but how would I account for them in the spreadsheet, and are they included in my TSP balance shown on statements and on the website?

Thanks again for all the help and advice that you guys are giving.

[Scout333]

One question I had was about my TSP loans (see first post as to why I have loans!). I know they only gather the interest that I'm paying myself on the loan, but how would I account for them in the spreadsheet, and are they included in my TSP balance shown on statements and on the website?

Hockey, I have a spreadsheet and just account for the money that is actually in my account. ie Reduce the original balance when the loan is taken out. As I pay it back I add it back to my balances. Same as your bi-weekly contributions. That may be a little overly-simplistic but it works for me. For example if you normally put in $ 500 bi-weekly and you split it 5 ways evenly between the TSP funds(20% each) and you pay yourself back $ 500 on the TSP loan I would split it the same way. Over time, as you pay back more than you borrowed ( The interest -G fund rate) it will be added back into your account. Good luck! Hang in there better times are ahead!:)

[Scout333]

Hockey, I have a spreadsheet and just account for the money that is actually in my account. ie Reduce the original balance when the loan is taken out. As I pay it back I add it back to my balances. Same as your bi-weekly contributions. That may be a little overly-simplistic but it works for me. For example if you normally put in $ 500 bi-weekly and you split it 5 ways evenly between the TSP funds(20% each) and you pay yourself back $ 500 on the TSP loan I would split it the same way. Over time, as you pay back more than you borrowed ( The interest -G fund rate) it will be added back into your account. Good luck! Hang in there better times are ahead!:)

For anyone who might be interested I posted the spreadsheet I use at Tally Talk under thread titled Scout333's TSP Contribution Spreadsheet. Link is there also. Current Version as of 9/25/08: http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/Scouts_Spreadsheet.xls

Just a tip for those who don't like the split window view, just select Window and then Remove Split.

[EW_ret]

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