New TSP Trading Site?

[CountryBoy]

Good morning all,

I found this site advertised at the top of the page on FedSmith.

http://www.thriftrading.com/

Since I just got back from vacation, this may have been discussed and if so I'm sorry for the repeat. It just kinda caught me by suprised, that this was advertised, very prominently, on Fed Smith who I feel is nothing more than a shill for the Thrift Board.

CB

[luv2read]

WOW! A slam at Ebb too! What nerve!:mad:

[Silverbird]

Good morning all,

I found this site advertised at the top of the page on FedSmith.

http://www.thriftrading.com/

Since I just got back from vacation, this may have been discussed and if so I'm sorry for the repeat. It just kinda caught me by suprised, that this was advertised, very prominently, on Fed Smith who I feel is nothing more than a shill for the Thrift Board.

CBWow, sooo impressed that they have been making money since inception...in 2004! :cheesy: Ok, and they seem to be in G fund right now, like even I couldn't figure that out. And guess what they call "Buy and Hold" for comparison purposes? 20% in each of the funds, like you are supposed to *do* that? How about those "L" things that are supposed to be the buy and hold strategy? And they list TspTalk as a resource after dissing it.

And, oh, it's $99.50 for *three months* + $50 for every additional computer you want to log in from. Ok, who is planning to log in from only one computer?? Looks like $279 a year + that $50 for another computer, I can buy a package of different newletters here for that price.

Anyway, even though paying services are offered here, you don't have to buy them to get lots of good information here. And it's not as if Ebb is *the TSPtalk pay service", you just *can* buy his service among others. You don't get much out of this also ran unless you give them money. And TSP talk could put logos for government sites on the bottom of their site too, but I prefer the reality of the market charts over the reflected cachet of "resources" that at first glance makes it look like the site is in some fashion official or sanctioned or liked.

[SkyPilot]

Used it, dumped it... not very helpful...

[nnuut]

Yeah, I remember him!:rolleyes:

[CountryBoy]

WOW! A slam at Ebb too! What nerve!:mad:

No slam was aimed at Ebb at all. I've noticed you're pretty quick to jump to conclusions since your return. I don't post that often but when I do it's mainly to point out sources of info, but then I don't have the time to read as much as you do. I didn't even know he was at this site.

I don't slam other fellow feds who want to help. So don't be so quick to judge others. :D

CB

[CountryBoy]

Used it, dumped it... not very helpful...

Thanks for the info SkyPilot. :D Much appreciated.

CB

[CountryBoy]

Yeah, I remember him!:rolleyes:

I guess I need to get out more often. :laugh:

CB

[Guest2]

With the average of most Mutual Funds being down for the year and so
many of us being in positive territory YTD, even we could start a website
and make short term cash claiming that we've outperformed the S&P500
for the last 8 years. Be very cautious. I haven't seen a system beat the
Bear yet. I mean Bear Market ! Remember, If your down 5% YTD and the
S&P is down 5.5%,,,,,you beat the S&P yet again. Whooppppeee !
:confused:

[RGP22407]

No slam was aimed at Ebb at all. I've noticed you're pretty quick to jump to conclusions since your return. I don't post that often but when I do it's mainly to point out sources of info, but then I don't have the time to read as much as you do. I didn't even know he was at this site.

I don't slam other fellow feds who want to help. So don't be so quick to judge others. :D

CB


I don't think luv2read meant you.

The website says:

Word of Caution: Beware of becoming a member to other services that do not show a consistent long-term track record (meaning years of real-time data) for beating the market and ones that do not fully explain their methodology for IFT allocations. These services will involve a very high degree of risk since long-term consistency is unproven. An example of one of these services is recommended on the TSPTalk.com site. When you go to their page at: http://www.tsptalk.com/members, and click on "Sample EbbChart System," the link brings you to this page: http://www.tsptalk.com/samples/ebbchart.html, which shows their 2007 returns of +20.01%. That sounds great, but how well did they perform in year 2006? There are no results! Now how are they performing this year? As of a May 23, they are losing bigtime at -11.22% for their ETF service and -2.64% for their TSP system! Services like these really concern us. Site visitors who sign up to their service will be at great risk since their methodology is unproven, not to mention that members don't have a clue as to how they are assigning their allocations (i.e., black box system). This is just a word of caution to beware of unproven services that do not have consistent results.

[Silverbird]

Yeah, I agree Luv was referring to the diss of Ebb on the ThriftTrading website, that was why I added to the point in my analysis that Ebb does not equal TSPTalk like their paying service = their site. The diss of Ebb "warning" is prominently on the website, but as I said in my analysis, TSPTalk is listed as a resource for TSP. I want to stress that I didn't want to imply that Ebb's service deserves any dissing whatsoever. My point is me thinketh they talketh out of two sides of moutheth (with the specious "warning) so hold on to your walleths.:nuts:

[luv2read]

WOW! A slam at Ebb too! What nerve!:mad:


No slam was aimed at Ebb at all. I've noticed you're pretty quick to jump to conclusions since your return. I don't post that often but when I do it's mainly to point out sources of info, but then I don't have the time to read as much as you do. I didn't even know he was at this site.

I don't slam other fellow feds who want to help. So don't be so quick to judge others. :D

CB
CB,

That comment wasn't aimed at you...it was aimed at the "TSP investment managers" you pointed out. They clearly slam Ebb in their "ad".

RPG and Silverbird, thanks for noticing. :)

I try think things through before I post and not go off half-cocked, so to speak. It seems that I've failed at this, so in the future I'll try to refrain from posting my opinions and comments and stick to posting facts (articles) in my own thread. CB, sorry if I've offended you in any way. :(

[CountryBoy]

CB,

That comment wasn't aimed at you...it was aimed at the "TSP investment managers" you pointed out. They clearly slam Ebb in their "ad".:cool:

RPG and Silverbird, thanks for noticing. :)

My fault guys,

I should've read further and owe ya'll, especially luv an apology. :o

Well, it's not the first time I've inserted said foot into said mouth. :)

CB

[luv2read]

My fault guys,

I should've read further and owe ya'll, especially luv an apology. :o

Well, it's not the first time I've inserted said foot into said mouth. :)

CB
CB,

Much appreciated. Apparently I was editing at the same time you were posting. No offense given and none taken, but I will take your words about being "pretty quick to jump to conclusions" to heart. There's always room for improvement. Thanks.

[FundSurfer]

I've been keeping track of this site for a while. I have confirmed with a couple members that there published moves match what they say they have been doing.

Their track record isn't bad.

In terms of their slam on Ebb, I think it is justified for them to say that Ebb does not have a long history for evaluation. However, no service has a long history given that we are dealing with a change in the rules. If you look at their history, they moved a bunch. They can not do that as much any more. It is a new ballgame.

I need to update my tracking of the different services out there... just not enough time in a day.

[ebbnflow]

I don't think luv2read meant you.

The website says:

Word of Caution: Beware of becoming a member to other services that do not show a consistent long-term track record (meaning years of real-time data) for beating the market and ones that do not fully explain their methodology for IFT allocations. These services will involve a very high degree of risk since long-term consistency is unproven. An example of one of these services is recommended on the TSPTalk.com site. When you go to their page at: http://www.tsptalk.com/members, and click on "Sample EbbChart System," the link brings you to this page: http://www.tsptalk.com/samples/ebbchart.html, which shows their 2007 returns of +20.01%. That sounds great, but how well did they perform in year 2006? There are no results! Now how are they performing this year? As of a May 23, they are losing bigtime at -11.22% for their ETF service and -2.64% for their TSP system! Services like these really concern us. Site visitors who sign up to their service will be at great risk since their methodology is unproven, not to mention that members don't have a clue as to how they are assigning their allocations (i.e., black box system). This is just a word of caution to beware of unproven services that do not have consistent results.

Hello, RGP22407! I visited the site and was fairly surprised to see them give me a mention. I knew in my mind that my system produced +32% in 2006, but just to make sure I downloaded my TSP account statements from 2005 Q4 thru 2006 Q4. I reviewed my records and saw that I forgot to enter an IFT that cost me 2%. I also noticed that in the first quarter of 2006, I still had a little contribution ($1423.95) going that I needed to subtract. I was no longer working for the Post Office after 02/04/06 so there were no more contributions after that. At the end of 2006 Q4, my total balance shows $158,382.48 - $1423.95 (contribution) = $156958.53; $156958.53 - $120,419.47 (2005 Q4) = $36539.06 (gain); $36539.06/$120,419.47 x 100 = +30.34%.

Even with the missed IFT that cost me 2%, the ebbtracker (+30.34%) still doubled what ThriftTrading had in 2006 (+15.25%). And the ebbchart for 2007 (+20%) is again double what ThriftTrading had in 2007 (+9.32%). Since I have tracked the funds, I've done way better against the best performing funds. This year, it's the same story -- doing better than the I-fund by almost 6%. The true measure of a system is how it produces year in and year out -- not from month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter. I got to remind Tom to change that +32% to +30% on my info page. Here is a snapshot of my TSP statement from 2005 Q4 thru 2006 Q4. Hope this clears things up a bit. -- ebb

http://i139.photobucket.com/albums/q299/gregorian9er/ebbtsp_2005Q4_2006Q4.gif

[Christopher]

Ebb, haven't seen a post from you in a LONG time - it's really good to see you! ;)

[Rod]

Yeah, I agree Luv was referring to the diss of Ebb on the ThriftTrading website, that was why I added to the point in my analysis that Ebb does not equal TSPTalk like their paying service = their site. The diss of Ebb "warning" is prominently on the website, but as I said in my analysis, TSPTalk is listed as a resource for TSP. I want to stress that I didn't want to imply that Ebb's service deserves any dissing whatsoever. My point is me thinketh they talketh out of two sides of moutheth (with the specious "warning) so hold on to your walleths.:nuts:

They are actually trying to diss TSPTalk as a whole, and not Ebb's system. They are simply using Ebb's system performance in an attempt to steer folks away from here.

That's their true motive.

[tsptalk]

I've been keeping track of this site for a while. I have confirmed with a couple members that there published moves match what they say they have been doing.

Their track record isn't bad.

In terms of their slam on Ebb, I think it is justified for them to say that Ebb does not have a long history for evaluation. However, no service has a long history given that we are dealing with a change in the rules. If you look at their history, they moved a bunch. They can not do that as much any more. It is a new ballgame.
True. I don't know what they do, but I see that they didn't register their domain name until March of 2005, so how can they claim any kind of longer term history themselves?

Their warning is pretty slanderous and I may have my attorney take a look. I'll address the issues below. I may also delete this thread as I don't want to get involved in a pissing contest with these folks.

Anyone who has been with TSP Talk for more than just a short while, knows that we are not about BS. We don't make any unrealistic claims, as a matter a fact, I do very little self promotion. I write a daily column. We have a message board. We offer 3 premium services. We offer more free material and services then any other TSP site. I still believe this message board and the information gathered here by all of the members, is the heart of the site.

Addressing their claims:



Word of Caution: Beware of becoming a member to other services that do not show a consistent long-term track record

That would include their site

... and ones that do not fully explain their methodology for IFT allocations.

I don't believe there are many, if any, trading systems that reveal their method. That's the point of a proprietary product.

These services involve a high degree of risk since long-term consistency is unproven.

Absolutely.

"Sample EbbChart System," the link brings you to: http://www.tsptalk.com/samples/ebbchart.html, which shows their 2007 returns of +25.12%. This was the high 'during' that year, not the year-end total of +20.01%.

The high was actually 32%. This sample page was created when we went to premium services and that happened to be the return at the time. All other pages (other than the sample) include 2007 ending return, and current return (or monthly delayed). We are not trying to hide a 20% return.

We consider this devious advertising just to get you to sign on. Though, what about their track record? An important question is "how well did they perform in year 2006?" There are no results!

Ebb joined the message board and began documenting his trades in June 2006. His 7 month return from June 2006 to Dec 2006, was +17%. We don't wish to hide that fact either. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949 (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949). It's all documented on the tracker page as well www.tsptalk.com/tsp-tracker.com (http://www.tsptalk.com/tsp-tracker.com) ... http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_123107.pdf (http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_123107.pdf), http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_122906.pdf (http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_122906.pdf)

Another even more important question is "How are they performing in year 2008?" As of a June 26, they are losing bigtime at -18.13% for their ETF service and -5.60% for their TSP system!

First of all, they should not be posting this info, but I wouldn't mind if they also posted their comparable return next to it, as well as the return of our other services. They seem to be doing the cherry picking now.

Though, these results are not shown on their sign-up page. They only show their best year.

No, the updated returns are posted throughout the site.

And to make matters worse, TSPTalk.com has multiple trading systems, and switch the service that is doing the best to the top. Here you could have bought into one service that they promoted as a good system, and when it goes sour, they highlight another one (move it to the top) that is performing better.

I have no idea what they are talking about. Have we switched anything? I rarely even talk about Revshark's +4.3% return in 2008. Perhaps the fact that the higher returns are higher on the Tally? I don't know.

Services like these really concern us. Site visitors who sign up to their service will be at great risk since their methodology is unproven, not to mention that members don't have a clue as to how they are assigning their allocations (i.e., black box system).

Trader Fred has been creating trading systems for 10-15 years. Both his, and Ebb's system are certainly high risk / high reward systems. Not everyone looks at this a bad thing. Revsharks' service has the best return in 2008, and also has fewer subscribers than the other two - because people tend to find it less exciting. To each their own. The 3 services we offer are not a random accident. They are three very unique services so people can pick the approach they prefer.