Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy [Archive]

McDuck

04-10-2008, 03:45 AM

Guest2

04-10-2008, 04:23 AM

Information we can all use ! Thanks so much !

Back Testing during a Bull Market looked great.
I wonder if it will hold true since the TSP began.
Are you going to Test further. If so, I can't wait
to see the results. Again, Thanks A Million !
:)

McDuck

04-10-2008, 04:36 AM

2001 and 2002 were bear market years.

After the first 3 months of this year, this method is up 0.8% while all 3 of the stock funds were down 9.0%

Guest2

04-10-2008, 04:53 AM

2001 and 2002 were bear market years.

After the first 3 months of this year, this method is up 0.8% while all 3 of the stock funds were down 9.0%

Totaly Cool Stuff, Thanks

Braveheart

04-10-2008, 04:56 AM

McDuck

04-10-2008, 06:35 AM

OK THX for the Info: So what Fund is the best for April based upon March the only Fund was the F Fund that performed well is had the highest % gain. Is that the pattern you are looking at.

In March the I Fund was up but % goes to the F Fund.

The March indicator is really a tie. G was 0.32% and F was 0.33%. Technically it should be the F-fund.

nasa1974

04-10-2008, 07:08 AM

Very interesting! Something to track for a little bit and try and get a warm fuzzy. Thanks for the information.

Guest2

04-10-2008, 07:21 AM

Very interesting! Something to track for a little bit and try and get a warm fuzzy. Thanks for the information.

Greg's Avitar is warm and fuzzy ! I'll be looking into this a bit as well.
Keep us posted on this endevor, It sounds profitable !
:toung:

nasa1974

04-10-2008, 08:46 AM

Greg's Avitar is warm and fuzzy ! I'll be looking into this a bit as well.
Keep us posted on this endevor, It sounds profitable !
:toung:

Sounds almost too simple. Would be interested in some of the other top movers input. Squalebear Have a good day.

Guest2

04-10-2008, 08:52 AM

Sounds almost too simple. Would be interested in some of the other top movers input. Squalebear Have a good day.

I agree, warm & fuzzy is never simple. I look forward to seeing others imput as well. ;)

RPM

04-10-2008, 10:04 AM

Attached is the Excel worksheet that I used.

Thank you for the analysis. I am sure if we look hard enough, we'll know why it works, and the reason will make it less "simple"

Although I really like the simplicity of this approach. Would appreciate getting the info if you do back test to the beginning of TSP.

TIA

malyla

04-10-2008, 01:02 PM

Thank you for the analysis. I am sure if we look hard enough, we'll know why it works, and the reason will make it less "simple"

Although I really like the simplicity of this approach. Would appreciate getting the info if you do back test to the beginning of TSP.

TIA

Just tested this method from Jun 03 to present (share prices inception). As a buy and holder with 85%C and 15%S starting in Jun 03 I would be about 54% gain on my initial investment on Jun 2003. As of today, I'm really only 44% gain on my initial investment of Jun 2003 due to some bad I fund/G fund timing with transfers. (I track both my buy&hold and trading strategies). The last month best fund method at first did not look like it was going to work as the 2003-2005 showed that I was missing massive gains by looking to the last month best fund, but after finishing the whole spreadsheet (using Tom's) with some adjustment to federal paydays as the start or end of a month to initiate a transfer, the following conclusion jumps out. I would be up 128% on my Jun 2003 investment if I had followed this 'last month best fund' method. And my current balance would be almost double what I have now.

Why has no one (TSP, employer, etc...) ever mentioned this before? The last 4 months would have been made mute as this method had us out of stocks during the big drop from Dec 07 - present. Also missed the drops in March-April 2004, June-July 2006, July 2007. Missed some gains as well (Oct 2003, May 2004, Aug-Sept 2004, Feb 2005, May 2005, Nov 2005, Mar 2006, Aug 2006, March 2007,and Aug 2007), but it's the drops that affect the rate of return the most.

Very interesting. I do appreciate all that this website has taught me and look forward to more illuminating ideas and methods.

Good luck all. Currently 100% G.

malyla

nasa1974

04-10-2008, 01:39 PM

If I understand the concept of the "last month best fund method" you move whatever % you are comfortable with (to maximize your profits it would be 100%) into the fund that had the best record at the end of the previous month (April as an example) and stay in that fund for the month (May). Then look at May's numbers and repeat.

McDuck

04-10-2008, 01:43 PM

Just tested this method from Jun 03 to present

I think this method was most impressive during 2001 and 2002.

In 2001, this method was up 5.1% while all 3 stock funds were down (C = -11.94 , S = -9.04 , I = -21.94 ).

In 2002, this method was down a little ( -1.2%) while all 3 stock fund were down a lot (C = -22.05, S = -18.14, I = -15.98 ).

malyla

04-10-2008, 01:44 PM

Just tested this method from Jun 03 to present (share prices inception). As a buy and holder with 85%C and 15%S starting in Jun 03 I would be about 54% gain on my initial investment on Jun 2003. As of today, I'm really only 44% gain on my initial investment of Jun 2003 due to some bad I fund/G fund timing with transfers. (I track both my buy&hold and trading strategies). The last month best fund method at first did not look like it was going to work as the 2003-2005 showed that I was missing massive gains by looking to the last month best fund, but after finishing the whole spreadsheet (using Tom's) with some adjustment to federal paydays as the start or end of a month to initiate a transfer, the following conclusion jumps out. I would be up 128% on my Jun 2003 investment if I had followed this 'last month best fund' method. And my current balance would be almost double what I have now.

Why has no one (TSP, employer, etc...) ever mentioned this before? The last 4 months would have been made mute as this method had us out of stocks during the big drop from Dec 07 - present. Also missed the drops in March-April 2004, June-July 2006, July 2007. Missed some gains as well (Oct 2003, May 2004, Aug-Sept 2004, Feb 2005, May 2005, Nov 2005, Mar 2006, Aug 2006, March 2007,and Aug 2007), but it's the drops that affect the rate of return the most.

Very interesting. I do appreciate all that this website has taught me and look forward to more illuminating ideas and methods.

Good luck all. Currently 100% G.

malyla

That is correct(from a quick check of 2000-2002). I used the method of picking the last month's best fund for the beginning of the new month. I used 100% transfers. I compared it to my buy and hold (85%C 15%S) and was amazed. B&H 54% since Jun 2003 compared to 'last month best fund' 128% since Jun 2003. I will continue to track my two methods plus this one for awhile before I make a choice.

nasa1974

04-10-2008, 01:50 PM

McDuck

04-10-2008, 02:04 PM

I am sure if we look hard enough, we'll know why it works, and the reason will make it less "simple"

It's very simple why this works, it indicates how the different funds are trending.

There has to be a slightly better indicator than the end of a calendar month. I'm hoping someone here comes up with it. But without the odd-ball corrections that people add to the back-testing but never work in the future.

Would appreciate getting the info if you do back test to the beginning of TSP.

I hope others will do their own independent numbers to verify my figuring. But I ran the numbers for 1988 thru 2000 when there was only the G, F, and C fund.

First the good news. During this 13 year period, this method would have returned 278% while the F-fund would have returned 172% and the G-fund would have returned 148%.

The bad news is that during those 13 years, the C-fund returned 608%. The C-fund had 20-30-something-% returns for at least half those years.

You can't get greedy with this method.

McDuck

04-10-2008, 02:14 PM

Well I have two weeks to better understand the concept. If I understand it better I will give it a try starting in May. Of course I will keep 50% in "G" just to play it safe. I would like to retire in 4 years and can not afford to be to aggressive. YET! :D

This strategy is good only as a multi-year approach. It will be a "dog" some months and even some years. (Just like Ebb's method could be a good multi-year strategy but it just been down for the last 6 months and it's going roar back and finish the year at 30% or maybe next year).

I think this method can be improved.

I think this method is kinda like what Ebb was doing, but he was trying to indicate when to jump in/out from date to date (and had complicated rules that only worked during back-testing).

James48843

04-10-2008, 02:16 PM

1. "The trend is your friend" is a very, very old maxim to live by.

2. Theorys abound. Greatly.

3. Past performance is no guarentee of future results, and

4. I'll look at setting up an autotracker account with that theory in mind, if someone wants to become the "owner" of that theory, and post it up, and maintain it- so that we all can watch for a while.

Anybody want to take responsibility for this? (Requires a LONG term commitment).

camper65

04-10-2008, 02:20 PM

Rule #1, (For my self only)
The Market goes up, the market goes down,
or to put it in other terms,
the market goes up, AND the market goes down!

Asylum

04-10-2008, 02:30 PM

Will this work with any 30 day period?

say from the 15th to the 15th of the month?

McDuck

04-10-2008, 02:39 PM

4. I'll look at setting up an autotracker account with that theory in mind, if someone wants to become the "owner" of that theory, and post it up, and maintain it- so that we all can watch for a while.

Anybody want to take responsibility for this? (Requires a LONG term commitment).

I'll volunteer (I'm only 15 minutes from the Tennessee state-line.)

There will be a 2 day gap using this method. I will calculate the fund % COB-last-day-of-the-month. Autotracker enter the IFT (if any) and it takes effect COB-fist-day-of-the-month.

Can we start it in the autotracker back to the beginning of the year?

malyla

04-11-2008, 12:49 AM

I performed a more rigorous analysis ( and eliminated a mistake from my last post) and came up with the following:

Assuming an IFT made COB on the first of each month:

Jun -Dec 2003 results = 20.29% (assumes initial 100% C for Jun, then 100% I in July, 100% S in Aug-Sep, 100% F in Oct, 100% S in Nov, 100% I in Dec)
Jun - Dec 2003 fund results =(G fund = 2%; F = -1.3%; C = 11.6%; S = 23.7%; I = 22.3%)

Jan - Dec 2004 results = 13.3%
Jan - Dec 2004 fund results =(G fund = 4%; F = 3.72%; C = 9.13%; S = 14.4%; I = 15.47%)

Jan - Dec 2005 results = 7.39%
Jan - Dec 2005 fund results =(G fund = 3.93%; F = 1.34%; C = 7.03%; S = 13.72%; I = 10.9%)

Jan - Dec 2006 results = 19.2%
Jan - Dec 2006 fund results =(G fund = 4.57%; F = 5.05%; C = 13.07%; S = 14.72%; I = 18.93%)

Jan - Dec 2007 results = 17.64%
Jan - Dec 2007 fund results =(G fund = 4.44%; F = 6.71%; C = 5.11%; S = 4.69%; I = 11.76%)

Jan - Mar 2008 results = 0.87%
Jan - Mar 2008 fund results =(G fund = 0.9%; F = 0.92%; C = -4.96%; S = -5.27%; I = -5.77%)

Totals for the time period from Jun 2003- Mar 31, 2008:
last month best fund method = 78.69%
fund results =(G fund = 23.9%; F = 21.2%; C = 55.1%; S = 85%; I = 131.8%)

Conclusion: Method seems to beat the C,F,G funds, however, a buy and hold of S and I would have produced higher earnings. This is mainly due to this method failing in the years 2003-2005 to adequately pick the reoccuring best fund. However, the years from 2006-2008 have the last month best fund method performing better that all the funds (B&H strategy). So can one assume that this method does not work well in a strong bull market but during a weak bull / bear market, this method can lead to significant capital preservation.

Good Luck in building your third leg of your retirement stool. It's only 30-40% of your retirement ;-)

Guest2

04-11-2008, 02:24 AM

Good Luck in building your third leg of your retirement stool. It's only 30-40% of your retirement ;-)

Thanks for your analysis, this has been quite interesting to see it unfold.
By the way, although only 30-40% of our retirement, it's the only part in
FERS that we have any control over. At least, until they strip us of that
ability too. Again, this is great stuff and I'm sure they'll be looking very
close at the tracker for everyones benefit.
:cheesy:

McDuck

04-11-2008, 08:09 AM

So one can assume that this method does not work well in a strong bull market but during a weak bull / bear market, this method can lead to significant capital preservation.

I generally agree with your statement. But I wish you look into how this method did during 2000-2002, this is when this method did well

But can you name a better method that does as well as this method?

I think your percentages are a little low. Could you send me your worksheet?

DakotaKid

04-11-2008, 09:41 AM

malyla

04-11-2008, 12:37 PM

Here's a thought...

To better (or more quickly perhaps) take advantage of a trend (whether it be up or down), why not do a back test for the first of the month AND the middle of the month (taking advantage of the two trade limit that's soon to be imposed...(I hope not)). This way we would rebalance our accounts on the first of the month as well as the 15th, should a change be indicated.

DakotaKid

Just for grins and giggles I did a back test of this method tied to the 26 Friday paydays (close to the beginning and end of each month). I assumed that an IFT was performed on the Friday that is a payday affective COB that day (in hindsight, making an IFT before the weekend may not be that bright of an idea). That means you are in the market on Monday at the Friday closing price.

This method was not very good with this biweekly timeframe. The overall return for the period from Jun 2003- April 2008 was 43.58%. It did well in 2004 and 2007 beating all the funds in 2004 and all but the I in 2007, but 2005 was worst than the G fund (beat the F fund though) and 2003 and 2006 where marginal (6% and 10% respectively). This year the return is negative (0.88) which isn't bad compared to the funds, but using the monthly method has the return at positive 0.88.

Right now the biweekly (payday) method has the I fund as the last month best fund saying that as of April 4 you should be in the I fund until April 18. The monthly method has you in the F (G was 0.01% behind) fund for the month of April 2008.

Good luck.

malyla

04-11-2008, 04:15 PM

Results of back testing Last Month Best Fund Method:

Uses the monthly funds return results from the tsp.gov website. (Ex. If Jan 91 has G returns = 0.57%; F returns = -1.35%; and C returns = -1.89%; Then Fund moves into G fund for Feb 91 to reap the return of 0.56% for the month of Feb 1991.)

Tom’s spreadsheet is used to calculate the annual return using the formula:
Accumulated return = (100*(1+previous_accumilated_total)*(1+monthly_ret urn)-100)/100
(ex Calculating Accumulated return for Feb(tot) = (100*(1+January return)*(1+Feb_monthly_return)-100)/100;
Calculating Accumulated return for Mar = (100*(1+Feb(tot))*(1+Mar_monthly_return)-100)/100; etc…)

Negative returns are in ( ).

1992
LMBFmethod = 2.47%
G fund = 7.24%; F fund = 7.21%; C fund = 7.71%

1993
LMBFmethod = 3.56%
G fund = 6.13%; F fund = 9.52%; C fund = 10.12%

1994
LMBFmethod = 0.64%
G fund = 7.22%; F fund = (2.97)%; C fund = 1.33%

1995
LMBFmethod = 29.43%
G fund = 7.03%; F fund = 18.30%; C fund = 37.39%

1996
LMBFmethod = 26.96%
G fund = 6.76%; F fund = 3.66%; C fund = 22.85%

1997
LMBFmethod = 9.52%
G fund = 6.76%; F fund = 9.61%; C fund = 33.17%

1998
LMBFmethod = 31.25%
G fund = 5.76%; F fund = 8.74%; C fund = 28.44%

1999
LMBFmethod = 9.70%
G fund = 5.99%; F fund = (0.86)%; C fund = 20.95%

2000
LMBFmethod = (6.46)%
G fund = 6.42%; F fund = 11.65%; C fund = (9.14)%

2001
LMBFmethod = 3.85%
G fund = 5.39%; F fund = 8.57%; C fund = (11.95)%; S fund = (9.03)%; I fund = (21.94)%

2002
LMBFmethod = (1.65)%
G fund = 4.99%; F fund = 10.27%; C fund = (22.04)%; S fund = (18.14)%; I fund = (15.96)%

2003
LMBFmethod = 38.73%
G fund = 4.14%; F fund = 4.11%; C fund = 28.52%; S fund = 42.91%; I fund = 37.94%

2004
LMBFmethod = 15.48%
G fund = 4.29%; F fund = 4.30%; C fund = 10.79%; S fund = 18.03%; I fund = 20.01%

2005
LMBFmethod = 5.70%
G fund = 4.49%; F fund = 2.41%; C fund = 4.96%; S fund = 10.48%; I fund = 13.63%

2006
LMBFmethod = 8.18%
G fund = 4.94%; F fund = 4.39%; C fund 15.80%; S fund = 15.32%; I fund = 26.31%

2007
LMBFmethod = 13.78%
G fund = 4.87%; F fund = 7.08%; C fund = 5.55%; S fund = 5.50%; I fund = 11.44%

2008 to April 1
LMBFmethod = 0.81%
G fund = 0.89%; F fund = 2.26%; C fund = (9.48)%; S fund = (9.50)%; I fund = (8.96)%

Definately good for bear markets but not very good for strong bull markets.

McDuck

04-11-2008, 05:35 PM

Definitely good for bear markets but not very good for strong bull markets.

My numbers generally agree with yours. Would you recheck your percentage for 2005 (I get 9.2%).

I still think it is a good long-term method.

DakotaKid

04-11-2008, 07:52 PM

After much manual work, I took a break and read Malyla's post about using Tom's tracker...After banging my head a few times on the keyboard I transitioned to that and it went much more quickly. (yes, I'm a retard.)

Here's what I get for the bi-monthly Best Fund method (beginning and middle of month):

June 03 - Dec 03 = -.41%
G = 4.11%, F = 4.11%, C = 28.54%, S = 42.92%, I = 37.94%

Jan 04 - Dec 04 = 17.82%
G = 4.3%, F = 4.3%, C = 10.82%, S = 18.03%, I = 20%

Jan 05 - Dec 05 = 18.23%
G = 4.49%, F = 2.4%, C = 4.96%, S = 10.95%, 13.63%

Jan 06 - Dec 06 = 21.90%
G = 4.93%, F = 4.4%, C = 15.79%, S = 15.30%, I = 26.32%

Jan 07 - Dec 07 = -2.27%
G = 4.87%, F = 7.09%, C = 5.54%, S = 5.49%, I = 11.43%

Jan 08 - Mar 08 = -1.37%

Total since Jun 03 = 53.69%

One thing I noticed in my labored raw data work, is that there seems to be a lot of the "tail wagging the dog". For example, the I fund would be strong the first half of the month, so the Method would switch to I. Then the I would be negative or flat for the last half and the S would be strong. So you'd switch to S on the first. Then the S would be negative or flat while the I did good. It seemed to do alot of chasing, while the Monthly method would average the ups and downs for a better gain (that the bi-monthly was chasing for little gain).

This method seems quite erratic to me. There are some decent gains, but it gets suckered into some huge losses too (ie, 2007's return of a negative return for the year).

Hope this helps.

DakotaKid

fabijo

04-11-2008, 08:30 PM

This sounds a little like the problem I was having when I tried making an excel sheet to go for the best fund. I finally figured it was better to go for the wildest fund. It's a little bit like going for the fund that has the largest % movement (whether positive or negative).

A lot of times when you are in a bull market, a volatile stock or fund will have a huge drop. If you are just trying to go for the fund with the most gain during that quick market drop, you'd end up going to the G or F. But what happens is the fund that had the hugest drop during a bull market, usually comes back with fire while you are sitting in the G or F.

You need a way to decide if you are in a bull market or a bear market. I choose to use the 75 day Exponential Moving Average vs. the 180 day EMA of the S&P 500. During the bull market (when 75 day is above the 180 day) go to the fund that had the most volatility in the previous month(or two weeks). That may mean going to the fund that had the biggest gain or the biggest loss. During a bear market (when 75 day is below the 180 day) go to the G or F.

On back tests, this works nice, but I just haven't really been keeping up with it, especially since we are limited to two trades a month. For now, I'm staying in the F fund since we're at a stage where the 75 day EMA is below the 180 day EMA on the S&P 500.

airlift

04-11-2008, 08:57 PM

Fab,

Glad to read you always. Can you please give your opinion and a run down of the importance of the 75 and 180 moving averages as a factor in trading? Thanks.

James48843

04-11-2008, 09:12 PM

I'll volunteer (I'm only 15 minutes from the Tennessee state-line.)

There will be a 2 day gap using this method. I will calculate the fund % COB-last-day-of-the-month. Autotracker enter the IFT (if any) and it takes effect COB-fist-day-of-the-month.

Can we start it in the autotracker back to the beginning of the year?

OK Greg- check your PMs. I just created the user name, and sent you the password for this. Remember, this is a long-term commitment to keep it current. If you have any problems doing so, please PM me.

As far as the gap, your timeframes are like all other autotracker accounts- you'll have to enter by noon on the first trading day of each month, and it will be effective COB that day. No way to do otherwise.

And no, we can't set you up back to the beginning of the year. It is physcially possible to do, but would create a LOT of work to do it- (would require entries and re-syncs for every single day of the year so far), and if there was a mistake in the process- it would potentially screw everything up. Suffice it to say I'm only a part-time backup to the backup guy on a mission like that, and I don't want to take that chance.

You are now ready to enter your first entry- good luck, and let's see what that theory will do.

James48843

04-11-2008, 09:30 PM

And I just moved the entire thread from the "Account talk" thread, to a new thread of it's own in "Longer Term Strategies".

that seems to fit it a little better, and will give it more visibity.

Good luck- let's see how it works in real time.

Jim

fabijo

04-15-2008, 11:23 AM

Fab,

Glad to read you always. Can you please give your opinion and a run down of the importance of the 75 and 180 moving averages as a factor in trading? Thanks.

Hey airlift -

My apologies in only responding now. A couple of Decembers ago, I started processing a bunch of data from the S&P and other indices. The basic premise was that I wanted to have a way to only rely on closing prices so that my TSP decisions wouldn't be based on the minute by minute market. After trying so many SIMPLE ways to avoid dips, I just could not come up with a consistent method. I finally decided to look for a simple indicator of deciding between a bear market and a bull market. Again, there was no consistent method I could find that only based its decision on the index prices - at least not until I started increasing my horizon. Once I programmed Excel to process long term averages, the backtesting started showing much better returns on a consistent basis.

I don't really know the significance of the 75 day Exponential Moving Average vs the 180 day exponential moving average. Those numbers just seemed to provide better returns than any other combination of numbers I played with. Of course, I probably could have gone further by writing a program to adapt to changes in the economy. I just haven't found the time to go that far. Now with our new trade restrictions, I might need to find a way to analyze trading methods that only allow for two trades a month. That all depends on the gift of extra time being bestowed upon me.

malyla

04-15-2008, 11:41 AM

My numbers generally agree with yours. Would you recheck your percentage for 2005 (I get 9.2%).

I still think it is a good long-term method.

Sorry it took so long to get back to you. I had non-retirement planning work to do;)

I double checked the figures and there was no change. 2005 was a weird year as one some signal change in the monthly fund made a big difference in the overall return. The signals had me in the following funds at the 1st of each month:
Jan 05 = I
Feb 05 = F
Mar 05 = I
Apr 05 = G
May 05 = F
Jun-Aug 05 = S
Sept-Oct 05 = I
Nov 05 = G
Dec 05 =S

Amazingly, C never was the best fund. I wonder if that can be used as an indicator:cheesy:

malyla

05-01-2008, 11:34 AM

According to this strategy, one should have made an IFT today (effective COB May 1) into the I fund for the month of May.

Lets see what happens this month - it may work out:D

luv2read

05-01-2008, 12:01 PM

According to this strategy, one should have made an IFT today (effective COB May 1) into the I fund for the month of May.

Lets see what happens this month - it may work out:D
did someone post an IFT in the tracker?

McDuck

05-01-2008, 02:33 PM

Lets see what happens this month - it may work out:D

This system does NOT work every month. In fact, some months it is going to pick the worst fund for the upcoming month. It is good for a multi-year approach in which the market has a trend for many months such as the stock-funds going down after the dot-com bubble burst and Sept 11 then also when the I-fund was king during 2003-2006.

This is probably not a good method right now when the markets are overly influenced by the things such as the Fed doing an emergency 0.75 % rate cut on a Monday morning at 520 AM.

FUTURESTRADER

05-01-2008, 03:07 PM

Sorry it took so long to get back to you. I had non-retirement planning work to do;)

I double checked the figures and there was no change. 2005 was a weird year as one some signal change in the monthly fund made a big difference in the overall return. The signals had me in the following funds at the 1st of each month:
Jan 05 = I
Feb 05 = F
Mar 05 = I
Apr 05 = G
May 05 = F
Jun-Aug 05 = S
Sept-Oct 05 = I
Nov 05 = G
Dec 05 =S

Amazingly, C never was the best fund. I wonder if that can be used as an indicator:cheesy:

C is less volatile than S. S will outperform in a bull market. Somebody post this in Birchtree's account? :)

McDuck

05-13-2008, 11:38 AM

According to this strategy, one should have made an IFT today (effective COB May 1) into the I fund for the month of May.

Lets see what happens this month - it may work out:D

as of yesterday cob this method has a return of 2.20% ytd
it is beating the stock funds by ~ 5%
beating the g-fund by 0.9%
and lagging the f-fund by only by 0.09%

this method started the year in the g-fund and stayed thru february
ipted to the f-fund on 4/01 cob
and ipted to the i-fund on 05/01 cob

over at the autotracker 34 people are beating this method
this means to me that this method is not a great one
but it is a good one

luv2read

05-13-2008, 12:25 PM

what is this called on autotracker so we can find it ourselves? TIA.:)

McDuck

05-13-2008, 06:36 PM

clester

05-14-2008, 05:42 AM

What about using a last 2 or 3 month return average to choose the fund?

XL-entLady

05-14-2008, 08:58 AM

I base my TSP fund choices on many factors, but the main one is a 50 day moving average. That is fairly similar to basing on the last two month's "best fund."

I don't ever put all my TSP in one fund, so that the risks and gain are diversified, but I use the 50 day moving average to pick my percentages.

I miss the big valleys (and peaks!) that way, but I easily beat the average return and it is conservative enough to keep me out of big trouble.

Lady

luv2read

05-14-2008, 09:29 AM

what is this called on autotracker so we can find it ourselves? TIA.:)

There's not one on the autotracker, there doesn't need to be one. I'm looking for people who are willing help to test out ways to improve this method.
My mistake. I was under the impression it was being entered in autotracker per this post.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=159944&postcount=33

DrFaustus

05-14-2008, 09:41 AM

I've been looking at ways to improve the method.

I tried a proportional approach instead of just choosing the best fund - ie, if the C Fund had a return of 4% and the S Fund had a return of 4.1%, then you would invest the next month with 49% in C and 51% in S. Surprisingly, that didn't work out as well as strictly choosing the best fund. I'm not sure what the reason is ... but it resulted in a return of 100.85% from 2001-2007 as opposed to LMBF method, which turned in a return of 121.07%.

Guest2

05-14-2008, 09:44 AM

This is Great Stuff ! :)

DrFaustus

05-14-2008, 09:46 AM

C is less volatile than S. S will outperform in a bull market. Somebody post this in Birchtree's account? :)

I believe that the C and S funds are highly correlated ... ie, if the C fund is up, it is more than likely that the S fund will be up as well and probably by more.

I tried confirming this but my first attempt was disappointing and I'm not sure that I computed it correctly.

FUTURESTRADER

05-14-2008, 09:56 AM

I believe that the C and S funds are highly correlated ... ie, if the C fund is up, it is more than likely that the S fund will be up as well and probably by more.

I tried confirming this but my first attempt was disappointing and I'm not sure that I computed it correctly.

Absolutely. They are both children of daddy Wilshire 5000. C is the slower, chubbier sibling. Theoretically, S will indicate a trend sooner, and again theoretically, C will follow. S will go higher, faster and farther, and likewise lower, faster, and farther. Hence S is more volatile than C.

XL-entLady

05-14-2008, 12:54 PM

I tried a proportional approach instead of just choosing the best fund - ie, if the C Fund had a return of 4% and the S Fund had a return of 4.1%, then you would invest the next month with 49% in C and 51% in S. Surprisingly, that didn't work out as well as strictly choosing the best fund. I'm not sure what the reason is ... but it resulted in a return of 100.85% from 2001-2007 as opposed to LMBF method, which turned in a return of 121.07%.

Since early 2003 I've been implementing a version of the proportional approach that Dr. Faustus is talking about. My experience in the last 5 years has been that I missed some BIG uptrend days by using the approach. I've missed more on the upside than on the downside.

However, I've had to be very conservative in my approach because I've not been able to plan a retirement date with any certainty. For those of you who have more control over when you'll need to withdraw your TSP than I did, you could probably be much more aggressive and use a weighted proportional approach, or an 'all in' approach, for greater gains.

Lady

McDuck

05-14-2008, 02:26 PM

McDuck

05-16-2008, 11:26 AM

as of yesterday cob the lmbf method is up 3.47% ytd

so far this month
s 3.87%
c 2.86%
i 2.65%
g 0.16%
f 0.08%

McDuck

05-16-2008, 08:31 PM

the lmbf method is now up 4.45% ytd

McDuck

05-22-2008, 10:27 AM

yesterday cob, the lmbf method is now up 2.20 % ytd

Guest2

05-22-2008, 10:29 AM

yesterday cob, the lmbf method is now up 2.20 % ytd

the i-fund is the best performing fund so far this month at 0.96%

Can you tell how well it's done MTD to this point ?

sdouglas3

05-22-2008, 10:30 AM

yesterday cob, the lmbf method is now up 2.20 % ytd

What does lmbf stand for?

tia

luv2read

05-22-2008, 10:31 AM

"Last Month's Best Fund"

The fund that performed the best the previous month.;)

McDuck

05-22-2008, 07:05 PM

Can you tell how well it's done MTD to this point ?

today cob, the lmbf method is up 3.26 % ytd

mtd is 2.09% (0.08% + 2.01%)
lmbf was still in f-fund until may-01-cob
it did a ift after april-30-cob to i-fund that didn't become effective until may-01-cob

so far this month, the s-fund is the best fund (it's betting the i-fund by 0.1%)

Guest2

05-22-2008, 07:42 PM

Thanks Greg, Very helpful ! ;)

McDuck

05-28-2008, 11:10 AM

The I-fund is up only 0.13% since May-01-COB, when the LMBF IFTed into it.
That is ahead of the C-fund by 1.4% but behind the S-fund by 1%.
There's bound to have been some indication to switch to the S% during the month. Any guesses?

McDuck

05-30-2008, 07:56 PM

luv2read

05-30-2008, 08:22 PM

Are you talking about the indicator to move to the S fund that was missed this past Monday?

Or are you saying that the best fund for May was the S fund so IFT into it June 2?

McDuck

05-30-2008, 08:48 PM

Are you saying that the best fund for May was the S fund so IFT into it June 2?
Yes

Are you talking about the indicator to move to the S fund that was missed this past Monday?
I haven't heard about this one. Please tell me about it.

luv2read

05-31-2008, 08:57 PM

The LMBF method has a respectable YTD return of 1.91%. This is beating all of the funds. It is beating the:

* G Fund by 0.44%
* F Fund by 0.56%
* C Fund by 5.71%
* S Fund by 1.96%
* I Fund by 4.77%

It indicated to IFT to the S-fund on Monday.

Are you talking about the indicator to move to the S fund that was missed this past Monday?

I haven't heard about this one. Please tell me about it.

The I-fund is up only 0.13% since May-01-COB, when the LMBF IFTed into it.
That is ahead of the C-fund by 1.4% but behind the S-fund by 1%.
There's bound to have been some indication to switch to the S% during the month. Any guesses?That's what I was referring to.

Or are you saying that the best fund for May was the S fund so IFT into it June 2?
Yes

I think your two posts confused me. Thanks for clarifying.:)

DrFaustus

06-10-2008, 08:25 AM

The LMBF method has a respectable YTD return of 1.91%. This is beating all of the funds. It is beating the:

* G Fund by 0.44%
* F Fund by 0.56%
* C Fund by 5.71%
* S Fund by 1.96%
* I Fund by 4.77%

It indicated to IFT to the S-fund on Monday.

My results don't track yours. I'm showing that, as of COB May 30, the LMBF method was up 1.75% for the year. I have a 0.33% return for Jan, 0.16% for Feb, 0.32% for Mar, -0.16% for Apr and +1.09% for May. Where do our figures differ?

Are you looking at the returns on the 29th so you'll know which fund to be in on the 1st of the month?

marcel54

06-13-2008, 03:03 AM

Thanks for the info. It seams to simple to be true but I will try it. :cool:

DrFaustus

07-01-2008, 09:06 AM

Report Card:

Jun 08: -7.63%
YTD 08: -6.02%

malyla

07-01-2008, 10:30 AM

Report Card:

Jun 08: -7.63%
YTD 08: -6.02%

Not looking too good, but it has beat the stock funds
C S I returns-11.90%-7.69%-10.78%

The LMBF method is in G for July. I have looked at doing this quarterly, but the results are slightly worst than the LMBF returns. A bear market does give lower results for the LMBF (July 98 - Sep 02 gave 28.29%) but that greatly beat the stock funds (G 26.85%; F 36.45%; C -24.05%
S -29.48%; I -38.43%) for the time period.

Bear markets showed a great deal of oscillation where the YTD return was negative, but by the end of the bear market period, the LMBF was positive while the stock funds where negative.

I'm still evaluating this method and have not fully bought into it. Bear rallies are missed and give a false move into stocks for a loss in the first half of all three bear markets I've looked at (including the one we are in).

Good luck.

malyla

07-13-2008, 09:47 AM

Well, I have finally had time to get back to the B&H comparisons.

The attachment is the excel spreadsheet showing comparisons of Buy & Hold strategies including the Last Month's Best Fund Method.

All long term strategies have one problem - How to anticipate when a Bull/Bear market occurs. I solved this problem by using the 8.6 year Business Cycle (google it) to determine the cycle for allocation change.

The strategies are three B&H (allocation scheme A,B,D) that ignores market cycles but have different stock/bond allocations, two Cycle B&H (E & H) that take into account the 8.6 year business cycle for capital accumulation /preservation with two different stock allocations, and the LMBF method which ignores the business cycle. I have also performed an analysis of the LMBF using the business cycle but it is not included in the spreadsheet. I will talk about it though ;)

I have used Tom's spreadsheet and equations to calculate the yearly and running returns. I also have two growth percentages; From Sept 91 to Jun 08 and from May 03 to Jun 08. This allows a comparison of the past 17 years which includes the infancy of the TSP program with the last Bull market run to today. I also used the monthly returns for each fund from the TSP.gov website.

First thing that jumped out was that an inflexible B&H gave worst results than a B&H that takes the business cycle into account. Second thing was that a diversified portfolio did not perform as well as the high risk (100% stocks) allocation scheme (expected). The LMBF had a growth return comparable to the Diversified B&H (no business cycle). When the LMBF was in capital preservation (not shown in the spreadsheet), the return was slightly better than the LMBF method that does not take the bussiness cycle into account (74.49% compared to 69.87% since 5/03; 544.15% compared to 428.08% since 9/91).

By far the best strategy takes the business cycle into account for long term investment growth. It was approximately double the growth compared to the inflexible Buy & Hold strategy.

This Cycle B&H strategy works very well for capital preservation as it is the Bear markets falls that quickly and irreparably affect investment growth.

Couple this method with methods to determine and take advantage of the Bear market bull rallies and long term growth is greatly enhanced. This would also allow for DCA-ing by allowing one to put contributions in G during a Bear Market and start contributions near the end of the Bear market time to get the most benefit from this method.

I hope this adds to your TSP tool kit. :D

malyla

07-13-2008, 06:52 PM

The 8.6 year business cycle for you reading pleasure:D for post #70

http://www.nowandfutures.com/buscycle.htm

2032 should be scary. I hope all of us will be around to validate this theory:laugh:

G.L.

malyla

07-13-2008, 09:22 PM

I looked at the intermediate terms in the 8.6 year Business Cycle. The excel shows this on the date column. What you can see right off is that there are BIG rallies in the Bear Market cycle, usually in the 2nd and 4th quarters. The intermediate term drops in the Bull market cycle are not big and do not seem to occur at any specified time. This tells me not to worry about the intermediate terms during a major up move (bull market), but to pay attention to get the 5-15% rallies during the major down move (bear market).

See Malyla's Account Talk post #102 and #70 in this tread for more info.

Enjoy and be careful out there:cheesy:

McDuck

07-16-2008, 08:16 AM

Returns YTD yesterday COB:

LMBF -5.30%

C-fund -16.27%
S-fund -12.91%
I-fund -16.53%

Frixxxx

07-16-2008, 04:05 PM

..... This tells me not to worry about the intermediate terms during a major up move (bull market), but to pay attention to get the 5-15% rallies during the major down move (bear market).:cheesy:

You mean the warnings on Fox, CNN, MSNBC and ALL my local news are wrong...They say, "BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID!!!"

Nice research Malyla:cool:

malyla

07-16-2008, 04:26 PM

You mean the warnings on Fox, CNN, MSNBC and ALL my local news are wrong...They say, "BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID!!!"

Nice research Malyla:cool:

Thanks. Today appears to be the start of one of the intermediate rallies during a Bear Market. Lets hope it gives us 15% before it fizzles in the next tsumani of bad news.

G.L.

McDuck

07-17-2008, 09:05 PM

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/standard/images/004/headerBackground.jpg

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/07/17/oil_prices/

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Here's how to predict future oil prices

Justin Wolfers

Experts use complicated formulas to predict the future price of oil. But commentator Justin Wolfers says he's got a simple do-it-yourself method that works even better.

TEXT OF COMMENTARY

Kai Ryssdal: When we talk about oil prices, it's usually a futures contract that we're talking about. An agreement to pay a pre-arranged price for a barrel of oil at some point in the future, hence future contract. The art of the deal, though -- and the way to make money -- is to guess that future price of the world's most actively-traded commodity. Commentator and economist Justin Wolfers thinks he's got it all figured out.

JUSTIN WOLFERS: Important decisions about our family finances -- things like which car we purchase, or where we choose to live -- all of it hinges on whether today's high oil prices are here to stay, or whether this is just a temporary blip.

And there are dozens of talking heads on TV, pontificating about the latest oil industry developments.

But in fact, you're more of an expert than any of these talking heads. Or you will be, when I give you my secret forecasting formula.

Here it is: The single best forecast of oil prices in one month, three months, or a year is -- [sound of drumroll] -- today's oil price.

With oil at exorbitant prices today, I'm forecasting that next year's price will also be at exorbitant prices. I'm not saying that prices won't change, but I am saying that they're about as likely to go up as they are to go down. Let's call this the no-change forecasting rule. It won't work for everything, but it does pretty well for oil prices.

In fact, Ron Alquist and Lutz Killian, two University of Michigan economists, recently assessed the forecasting performance of the no-change rule. Amazingly, this simple rule did better than the average of dozens of professional forecasters! In fact, the no-change forecast was 34 percent more accurate at predicting oil prices in three months' time, and 18 percent more accurate at predicting prices in a year's time. While professional prognosticators might argue that this difference isn't statistically significant, it sure is embarrassing.

Others ignore the professional forecasters and focus instead on what futures markets are saying. But it turns out that even futures prices are not as accurate as our simple formula. Even sophisticated econometric models don't yield better forecasts than our simple no-change rule.

The truth is that forecasting oil prices is so darn hard that complicated formulae add nothing but complexity. And so the simplest forecasting rule also turns out to be the best. Don't you wish all of economics was this easy?

Ryssdal: Justin Wolfers teaches at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.

nnuut

07-17-2008, 09:42 PM

This simple formula didn't seem to work last year, did it?:D

malyla

07-18-2008, 01:56 PM

Hi all,

I took one more look at the B&H comparisons that I posted earilier to look at the FED rate oscillations and how they affected the F fund.

As you would expect, when we are in a Bear Market, this usually means we are in a recession and FED rates stay low (1% during most of the 2000-2003 Bear market). When we come out of a Bear market, the FED starts raising rates and the F fund suffers. For the most part, the F fund does well in a Bear market when the rates are low.

My concern is that this Bear market is somewhat different (more like the 1970s Bear Market). I have no data that can easily help me determine if stagflation affects the F fund. I have two questions: Would the FED raise rates in a Bear Market under current market conditions, and How would this affect using the F fund as the capital perservation fund using the Cycle B&H method (I'm guessing badly)?

Any thoughts?

luv2read

07-18-2008, 04:39 PM

IMO the fed will not raise rates during an election year BEFORE the election UNLESS it's to be a GOP political ploy.
They will not raise rates while the housing market is still in a slump, UNLESS Congress passes and BA signs the housing rescue package. 30 year mortgage rates are at 6.25 (go figure) ...pretty much where they were before all the rate cuts which were supposedly to HELP homeowners as well as support the market.
The won't raise rates UNLESS rampant inflation takes off, period, and they still won't do it BEFORE the election UNLESS the GOP is in dire need of a boost.
They MIGHT raise rates if the price of oil stays at or below $130, supply continues to exceed demand, and OPEC threatens to reduce production. I know this seems backwards, but everything they've done so far has been backwards so in a contrary way this makes sense.
JMO.

McDuck

07-28-2008, 12:08 PM

As of Friday (the 25th) COB, it appears that LMBF method correctly predicted the G-fund to be the best fund to be in for the month of July 2008.

Month-to-date returns:
G-fund 0.34%
F-fund -0.73%
C-fund -1.59%
S-fund -1.79%
I-fund -3.27%

Guest2

07-28-2008, 06:29 PM

It would appear that your method is calling (G) as the Best Fund
for the month of August as well. ;)

McDuck

07-28-2008, 07:28 PM

It would appear that your method is calling (G) as the Best Fund
for the month of August as well. ;)

Right

XL-entLady

07-30-2008, 09:23 PM

So with today's market happenings, unless the order switches again tomorrow, that means that August's LMBF is C???

Day-amn! I'd have never guessed that one! :blink:

Lady

XL-entLady

07-31-2008, 09:59 PM

August's LMBF strategy pick ends up being G Fund after all. That makes way more sense to me than yesterday's C Fund indication. What a wierd market. :(

Lady

marcel54

08-01-2008, 05:57 PM

I'm still 100% G from last month...:cool:

malyla

08-02-2008, 11:55 AM

August's LMBF strategy pick ends up being G Fund after all. That makes way more sense to me than yesterday's C Fund indication. What a wierd market. :(

Lady

Which just says that if you are going to follow this method, wait until the end of the month to determine the next transfer. There is a pretty good correlation between the bear market LMBF and the bear market position trade of F fund. The problem with the LMBF in a bear market is that on those short bear rallys, the LMBF missed the rally only to go into a loss for the following month due to the previous months signal. That can be very frustrating.

Still trying to determine if and when to use this method:) I'm thinking of using the monthly strength indicators as a secondary signal.

XL-entLady

08-02-2008, 12:25 PM

There is a pretty good correlation between the bear market LMBF and the bear market position trade of F fund. The problem with the LMBF in a bear market is that on those short bear rallys, the LMBF missed the rally only to go into a loss for the following month due to the previous months signal. That can be very frustrating.

Still trying to determine if and when to use this method:) I'm thinking of using the monthly strength indicators as a secondary signal.

I'd never made the correlation between the LMBF and the F Fund. I appreciate incisive comments like yours that add to my knowledge base!

I'm using LMBF as a cross-check to make sure that I'm reading the medium-term market right, and that's the only way I'll probably ever use it. But I think it could have value as a primary fund for people who are ready to move beyond putting everything in an L Fund and walking away, but may not be ready to actively IFT using their own decision-making process. For those folks, it might be a good interim step while they are learning. What do you think?

Lady

malyla

08-02-2008, 12:36 PM

A friend told me about a TSP-fund IFT-strategy that someone else (person B) told him about. Person B said it performed 5 or 6 times better than any other strategy that he analyzed.

It is a very simple strategy. It consists of: at the beginning of each month IFT into the fund that performed the best the previous month (i.e., at beginning of July IFT into the fund that performed the best during June.)

I back-tested it for the years 2001 thru 2007 (2001 was the first year with all 5 funds.)
Using this strategy over those 7 years gave a return of 114%.
Staying in the I-fund the same years returned 74%.
The S-fund returned 69%.
The F-fund returned 49%.
The G-fund returned 38%.
The C-fund returned 25%.

Supposedly, person B has been using this strategy for several years with success. It seems too simple. But I can see why it would work. And it does take the emotions out of IFTing and it would fit in any restricted-IFT rules that they throw at us.

This strategy could also be back-tested all the way back to the beginning to TSP using the G, F, C funds. I haven't done that yet.

Also, staying in a fund (that performed best the previous year) all year seems to be a very good strategy too.

Of course, all of this is taking the multi-year view.

Attached is the Excel worksheet that I used.

Lady,

The quote is from the first post (redundant, but it puts this method in propective). This method works very well in a bull market but not so well in a bear market. This makes sense as in a bull market at least one of the stock funds is doing well, so at worst you are moving between stock funds. However, in a bull market the return was better if you just left your money in the riskiest stock fund (I fund). It's the bear markets where this no longer works as well.

I put an excel together that shows this. It is in both this tread and in my account talk. There is a direct comparison between the LMBF and other strategies in that excel spreadsheet. Just take into account that it is a small sample set (back testing to 1991). It only shows 1 1/2 bear market returns, but the difference between the LMBF and the capital preservation method (Cycle B&H) is not to be ignored. The problem is determining when a bear market begins and how long it will be.

I hope this continues to be informative:D I do think it is good in a bull market for beginners, but I'm not sure I would have anyone use it in a bear market.

DrFaustus

09-04-2008, 08:10 AM

LMBF Report Card:

G Fund: +0.33
F Fund: +0.92
C Fund: +1.46
S Fund: +2.17
I Fund: -4.16

LMBF was in the G Fund for Aug. That puts the YTD LMBF performance at -5.33%

LMBF predicts S fund for Sep

malyla

09-30-2008, 07:36 PM

LMBF Report Card:

G Fund: +0.33
F Fund: +0.92
C Fund: +1.46
S Fund: +2.17
I Fund: -4.16

LMBF was in the G Fund for Aug. That puts the YTD LMBF performance at -5.33%

LMBF predicts S fund for Sep

LMBF method says G for October. YTD LMBF earnings -15.09%
Last months returns
G 0.31%
F -1.31%
C -8.94%
S -10.32%
I -12.31%

Year to date
G 2.86%
F 0.84%
C -19.25%
S -16.08%
I -27.80%

Being in S fund for Sept lost you ~10%. I'm thinking that bear markets do not allow for the risks on that scale. Currently in F and Sept was not very good for me but it could have been worse.

GL everyone.
Malyla

McDuck

10-07-2008, 11:12 PM

LMBF method says G for October.

As of cob today, LMBF is beating the stock funds by at least 15% YTD. That's not bad.

McDuck

10-07-2008, 11:27 PM

McDuck

10-21-2008, 03:12 AM

LMBF method says G for October.

Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
% Chg mon - +0.20% -1.57% -15.43% -19.21% -15.77%

peterson82

10-21-2008, 08:23 AM

Silverbird

10-21-2008, 09:22 AM

Well, in this case, blindly following the LMBF method may not be wise because it would mean cementing your losses from last month?

McDuck

10-21-2008, 11:07 AM

Well, in this case, blindly following the LMBF method may not be wise because it would mean cementing your losses from last month?
It would have prevented at least a 15% loss this month.

Silverbird

10-21-2008, 11:10 AM

Wow, ok! Now that's really good.

McDuck

11-18-2008, 10:51 PM

This month so far LMBFM is beating the C-fund by 11.5%, S-fund by 15.8% and I-fund by 9.6%.

Kentucky

12-01-2008, 08:21 AM

KevinD

12-01-2008, 08:36 AM

Greg went 100% F at close of business (COB) today using this method.

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

DrFaustus

12-01-2008, 08:42 AM

Can anyone tell me what the LMBFMS is?

I understand the principle, but what do you do, look at last months returns and then invest in those funds? if so, how do you decide how much to put into each fund?

Thoughts and advise are appreciated!

We've been applying 100% to the indicated fund for computation purposes. For example, November's returns (unverified) are:

G-Fund +0.31%
F-Fund +3.30%
C-Fund -7.18%
S-Fund -11.13%
I-Fund -6.72%

Since the best performing fund in November was the F-Fund, we apply 100% of our TSP funds to the the F-Fund for the month of December.

(just for the record, I am not using this strategy)

LMBF Report Card for Nov:
+0.31% Nov
-14.57% YTD

McDuck

12-29-2008, 07:30 PM

LMBFM call of the F-fund for December was a good pick.

It appears that the I-fund will be the LMBFM choice for January 2009.

LMBFM is at -12.62% year-to-date.

tsptalk

12-30-2008, 09:45 AM

LMBFM is at -12.62% year-to-date.
Not too shabby.

malyla

01-31-2009, 11:07 AM

Well, Jan was not good for this method. The strategy had you in the I fund for Jan. The I fund was down -11.93%. That's a big hill to climb for the rest of the year. I hope the market gets back on track soon as this methods works great in a bull market, but the bear market volitility is causing some headaches. I'm looking to see if a bi-weekly signal (shorter time frame) may work better in a bear market.

Is this method in the autotracker? If so what is the name?

Good luck everyone.

ATCJeff

01-31-2009, 11:10 AM

I don't think it's in the tracker. Better ask Tom.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3534&page=18&highlight=tom

James48843

02-06-2009, 06:41 PM

Hey Greg-

Someone was asking- is the Last Month Best Month method being tracked right now in the autotracker?

Thanks

James48843

02-06-2009, 06:45 PM

According to the results from January- the LMBM method should be now residing in "G" starting February 2nd (IFT to G on Feb 2, so it would be effective COB Feb 2nd).

McDuck

02-06-2009, 07:20 PM

Hey Greg-

Someone was asking- is the Last Month Best Month method being tracked right now in the autotracker?

Thanks

No, it's not in the autotracker.

LMBFM is doing very bad so far this year. It's currently at - 15.08 % :sick:

I think it is a good system under 'normal' conditions. But under the current conditions where there can be a 8% swing in a single day depending how many hundreds-of-billions the government flushes away, LMBFM can be a disaster.

McDuck

02-06-2009, 07:21 PM

According to the results from January- the LMBM method should be now residing in "G" starting February 2nd (IFT to G on Feb 2, so it would be effective COB Feb 2nd).

Correct.

McDuck

02-27-2009, 05:36 PM

According to the results from January- the LMBM method should be now residing in "G" starting February 2nd (IFT to G on Feb 2, so it would be effective COB Feb 2nd).

LMBFM did a yeoman's service this February.

http://www.phrases.org.uk/bulletin_board/25/messages/250.html

McDuck

03-05-2009, 06:42 PM

LMBFM is red hot so far this year. It is beating the C, S & I funds by at least 9%.

malyla

03-07-2009, 12:06 PM

August 2008 Fund Returns
G Fund: +0.33
F Fund: +0.92
C Fund: +1.46
S Fund: +2.17
I Fund: -4.16

LMBF predicted the S-fund for September, but it went down 10%.

Since the I-fund was a high negative in August, then maybe it should have indicated to stay in the G-fund. Somebody should back test that.
Done

Results of back testing Last Month Best Fund Method using an added refinement:
If the LMBFM indicated a move into the stock funds (C, S, I), a verification check looks at the S or I fund return for confirmation. If the sister stock is negative, the move to stocks is cancelled and a move to the highest safety fund (G, F) is made instead of stocks.
Negative returns are in ( ).
1992
LMBFmethod = 2.47%
G fund = 7.24%; F fund = 7.21%; C fund = 7.71%
1993
LMBFmethod = 3.56%
G fund = 6.13%; F fund = 9.52%; C fund = 10.12%
1994
LMBFmethod = 0.64%
G fund = 7.22%; F fund = (2.97)%; C fund = 1.33%
1995
LMBFmethod = 29.43%
G fund = 7.03%; F fund = 18.30%; C fund = 37.39%
1996
LMBFmethod = 26.96%
G fund = 6.76%; F fund = 3.66%; C fund = 22.85%
1997
LMBFmethod = 9.52%
G fund = 6.76%; F fund = 9.61%; C fund = 33.17%
1998
LMBFmethod = 31.25%
G fund = 5.76%; F fund = 8.74%; C fund = 28.44%
1999
LMBFmethod = 9.70%
G fund = 5.99%; F fund = (0.86)%; C fund = 20.95%
2000
LMBFmethod = (6.46)%
G fund = 6.42%; F fund = 11.65%; C fund = (9.14)%
2001
LMBFmethod = 26.80% (Feb,June, July changed to F fund changes a past return from 3.85%)
G fund = 5.39%; F fund = 8.57%; C fund = (11.95)%; S fund = (9.03)%; I fund = (21.94)%
2002
LMBFmethod = 3.30% (June changed to F fund changes a past return from (1.65%))
G fund = 4.99%; F fund = 10.27%; C fund = (22.04)%; S fund = (18.14)%; I fund = (15.96)%
2003
LMBFmethod = 20.55% (April, Oct changed to F fund changes a past return from 38.73%)
G fund = 4.14%; F fund = 4.11%; C fund = 28.52%; S fund = 42.91%; I fund = 37.94%
2004
LMBFmethod = 15.48%
G fund = 4.29%; F fund = 4.30%; C fund = 10.79%; S fund = 18.03%; I fund = 20.01%
2005
LMBFmethod = (1.85)% (June, Sept changed to F fund changes a past return from 5.70%)
G fund = 4.49%; F fund = 2.41%; C fund = 4.96%; S fund = 10.48%; I fund = 13.63%
2006
LMBFmethod = 8.18%
G fund = 4.94%; F fund = 4.39%; C fund 15.80%; S fund = 15.32%; I fund = 26.31%
2007
LMBFmethod = 10.52% (Sept changed to F fund changes a past return from 13.78%)
G fund = 4.87%; F fund = 7.08%; C fund = 5.55%; S fund = 5.50%; I fund = 11.44%
2008
LMBFmethod = (2.47)% (Sept changed to F fund changes a past return from (11.38%))
G fund = 3.74%; F fund = 5.45%; C fund = (36.99)%; S fund = (38.32)%; I fund = (42.42)%
2009 to March 1
LMBFmethod = (11.74)%
G fund = 0.39%; F fund = (1.24)%; C fund = (18.15)%; S fund = (17.57)%; I fund = (20.94)%

The 17 year (1992-2008) growth percentage moved from 339.50% to 386.15% using the method outlined above to verify a move to stocks. Since June 2003 (to Feb 30,2009) the growth percentage moved from 41.38% to 30.99%. I'm seeing a bear market improvement with this verification method (Blue italic years). Loses some if the verification method is used in Bull market years (Red italic years).

malyla

03-07-2009, 12:40 PM

I am wondering how this strategy would do if we used a Last-Eleven-Business-Days-Best-Fund (LEBDBF), since we have two trades a month.

In panic situations we could still dump the shares into the G-fund.

I looked at this and posted my results here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=159880&postcount=27

It has not improved. Bi-weekly moves are worse than following the LMBFM.

tsptalk

03-07-2009, 12:46 PM

LMBFM is doing very bad so far this year. It's currently at - 15.08 % :sick:

I think it is a good system under 'normal' conditions. But under the current conditions where there can be a 8% swing in a single day depending how many hundreds-of-billions the government flushes away, LMBFM can be a disaster.
I have said this before, following a system requires consistency. People jump on a system after it has done well, and abandon it after a bad stretch. Jump back in after it does well again, etc. That is the worst thing someone can do their someone's account.

They are missing the good runs and are in for the bad. I'll use the Ebbchart System as an example.

After the Ebbchart was up 20% in 2007, the system struggled in early 2008 but by the end of the year it beat the three TSP stock funds by between 19.5% and 25%, and beat the diversified account by about 4%.

Some think it is off to another weak start in '09 but again it is beating the TSP stock funds by about 8% to 10%, about in line with the diversified.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/030709.gif

Would anyone not be OK with being down 16.25% from 2007-2009, instead of the 50% plus of the stock funds, or the 29% of a diversified account? I think 95% of mutual fund mangers out there who would take this return over theirs.

But watching subscribers jump in and out of this subscription, almost always at the wrong time, has almost guaranteed they they are not doing as well.

By the way, Trader Fred is up 3.99% during that same 2+ year period. I don't see as much of the love / hate relationship with his subscribers, as he is less aggressive in his allocations and people have come to know what to expect from him.

You have to pick a system you believe in, trust it, and stick with it.

If you believe in the LMBFM system, stay with it or never use it. Otherwise you are almost guaranteeing yourself sub par results.

malyla

03-07-2009, 01:00 PM

I have said this before, following a system requires consistancy. People jump on a system after it has done well, and abandon it after a bad stretch. Jump back in after it does well, etc. That is the worst thing someone can do their someone's account.

They are missing the good runs and are in for the bad. I'll use the Ebbchart System as an example.

After the Ebbchart was up 20% in 2007, the system struggled in early 2008 but by the end of the year it beat the three TSP stock funds by between 19.5% and 25%, and beat the diversified acount by about 4%.

Some think it is off to another weak start in '09 but again it is beating the TSP stock funds by about 8% to 10%, about in line with the diversified.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/030709.gif

Would anyone not be OK with being down 16.25% from 2007-2009, instead of the 50% plus of the stock funds, or the 29% of a diversified account? I think 95% of mutual fund mangers out there who would take this return over theirs.

But watching subscribers jump in and out of this subscription, almost always at the wrong time, has almost guaranteed they they are not doing as well.

By the way, Trader Fred is up 3.99% during that same 2+ year period. I don't see as much love / hate with his subscribers, but he is less aggressive in his allocations and people have come to know what to expect.

You have to pick a system you believe in, trust it, and stick with it.

If you believe in the LMBFM system, stay with it or never use it. Otherwise you are almost guarateeing yourself subpar results.

I agree Tom. Greg asked for ways to improve this method. With this refinement (his suggestion), the LMBFM starts to outstrip all trading methods that use our restrictions (IFTs) to best effect. The longer term Biz-cycle has a better 17 year return, but if I combine the two there may be an optimum return. (What can I say - I'm bored sitting in F). In a Bear market, it may be an advantage to use the LMBFM with the verification method instead of sitting in the F fund.

tsptalk

03-07-2009, 01:17 PM

I'm all for improvement. :) I was kind of sending out a word of wisdom / advice to the system users, rather than about the systems themselves.

McDuck

03-07-2009, 04:00 PM

I have said this before, following a system requires consistency. People jump on a system after it has done well, and abandon it after a bad stretch. Jump back in after it does well again, etc. That is the worst thing someone can do their someone's account.

Tom, I generally agree with that. For January, LMBFM was bad. But now for January thru now, I looks pretty good.

I use LMBFM as only of several indicators. But I think it is would a good system to use if a people wanted to stick to one.

James48843

04-01-2009, 06:22 AM

Last Month Best Month says:

Last month:

C= +8.81%

S= + 8.64%

I= + 7.20%

Last Month Best Month method would require a transfer today to 100% "C" fund.

Good luck.

Steadygain

04-01-2009, 01:15 PM

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/030709.gif

This is really amazing!!

If you take out 2007:

G - 4.19%....F - 4.55%...C - 60.83%...S - 63.07%..I - 68.47%

I had no idea it was over 60% in all 3 Funds.

I wonder what the overall figures would be if the Gov/Fed could give the numbers associated with recent retires who have the bulk of their savings in a 401K with the B&H stategy (which has to be the overwhelming bulk) and include that figure in with anyone forced to live off retirement savings invested in a similar mode. :worried::sick::sick:

James48843

05-02-2009, 07:16 PM

Last Month Best Month method would make a transfer to "S" fund this month.

Last month (April 2009) :

C fund = + 9.58%

S fund = + 15.00%

I fund = + 12.13%

If you are following the "Last Month, best month", that would call for an IFT into "S" fund.

Be careful. back to back double digit gains have always been dangerous- rarely making three in a row- but if are following LMBM, then there it is- a move to "S".

Good luck all.

McDuck

05-02-2009, 08:36 PM

Last Month Best Month method would make a transfer to "S" fund this month.

That is correct.

LMBFM's YTD return is -7.6%. Not too good. It took it o the chin during the month of February.

I don't LMBFM work when the government takes over the means of production.

James48843

06-06-2009, 10:27 PM

BY the way- best fund for May was the I fund, with a gain of over 13%.

It's off to a weak start for June, however.

If you are doing the 'LAST MONTH, BEST MONTH" theory, it would be a switch to "I" this month.

Good luck.

James48843

07-01-2009, 11:20 AM

Last Month Best Month method- change in allocation today.

June showed:

G Fund: +0.27%
F Fund: +0.54%
C Fund: +0.24%
S Fund: +0.74%
I Fund: -1.08%

If you are doing the LAST MONTH, BEST MONTH" theory, it would be a switch to the "S" fund this month.

Good luck.

Viva_La_Migra

07-01-2009, 12:22 PM

Is the LMBFM in the tracker? I looked for it, but probably glossed over it. What are the returns so far this year?

James48843

07-01-2009, 11:18 PM

It is NOT in the tracker.

We were looking for someone who wanted to do the honors of posting the changes on a regular basis. Would you like to volunteer?

I'm not sure what the numbers are on it right now. I can go back through and try and figure it out. But not tonight- too much else to do.
Would you like to commit to adopt it for a year, and keep up with it every month?

McDuck

07-01-2009, 11:26 PM

Is the LMBFM in the tracker? I looked for it, but probably glossed over it. What are the returns so far this year?

As of today cob, -3.16%.

McDuck

07-02-2009, 08:05 PM

For July, LMBF is in the F-fund.

McDuck

07-05-2009, 08:46 PM

I created a spreadsheet to evaluate this method using 5 blue-chip stocks over the last 9 months. LMBFM had a return of -6.1% while the S&P500 has a return of -21.1%. If all 5 stocks had a negative return for the previous month, then the method was in cash during the current month.

James48843

08-04-2009, 06:33 AM

Last month best month method- would switch to "I" this month.

Last month the I fund gained 9.73%.

McDuck

08-04-2009, 10:36 AM

Last month best month method- would switch to "I" this month.

Last month the I fund gained 9.73%.

Yes, but LMBFM was in the F-fund.

This year LMBFM is not doing well at all. I can't recommend it.

I think tracking the 20-day EMA is much better. It's essentially the same but isn't restricted to making an IFT only at the beginning of the month.

peterson82

09-15-2009, 01:30 PM

Aug Stats:
F-Fund: up 1.03%
C-Fund: up 3.62%
S-Fund: up 3.85%
I-Fund: up 4.87%

I-Fund for September

peterson82

10-01-2009, 07:34 AM

Sept Stats:
F-Fund: up 1.07%
C-Fund: up 3.74%
S-Fund: up 5.94%
I-Fund: up 3.79%

S-Fund for October

James48843

11-01-2009, 04:43 PM

Last Month Best Fund method-

Moves to "F" for November.

Oct 30, 2009 close
FUND G F C S I
$13.05 $13.37 $12.23 $14.87 $17.71
Daily Change: $0.00 $0.06 ($0.35) ($0.43) ($0.52)

October- Month (%)
G=+ 0.26
F= + 0.51
C= -1.86
S= -5.51
I= -2.41

peterson82

11-02-2009, 07:41 AM

S-Fund took a huge hit in the last half of the month... It was up 3.5% after October 15, and ended the month down 5.5%! Down 9% ouch.

peterson82

12-01-2009, 12:31 PM

Last Month Best Fund was in F-Fund (Up 1.3%) in November, for December it will change to the C-Fund.

November's results:
F-Fund: + 1.3%
C-Fund: + 6.0%
S-Fund: + 3.9%
I-Fund: + 3.2%

beafet

12-29-2009, 06:39 PM

I'm no financial genius, but appears that much of the time, the second best fund from the previous month does well the next month, at least in months that see positive gains overall. Maybe someone smarter than me can chart it and see what the YTD would be?

beafet

12-29-2009, 07:34 PM

All right, here's my theory.

Each month, put 100% into the fund that was last month's second best fund..
UNLESS, if the second best fund was G or F, then put 100% into the fund that was last month's best among C, S, or I.

Thoughts?

tsptalk

12-29-2009, 09:00 PM

So, you'd always be 100% in a stock fund? Scary.

beafet

12-29-2009, 09:52 PM

Yeah, that is a good point. I think to reduce the risk, you would have to take out that exception. The theory, as is, seems to work well for this year.

I will have to try and figure with simply just going with the second best fund.

shitepoke

12-30-2009, 07:55 AM

me thinks it worked well this year in an up year and would be tough to be over-exposed to stocks year to year...

James48843

12-30-2009, 08:09 AM

I will be posting the "LBMB METHOD" in the auto tracker for 2010. I haven't done it before, but we'll give it a try, and track it in the tracker for 2010.

Watch for it on the Autotracker.

beafet

12-30-2009, 12:18 PM

Okay, I figured it (my 2nd best fund theory, no exceptions) up YTD as of COB yesterday. If my calculations are right then the return is 42.84%.

tsptalk

12-30-2009, 12:21 PM

Now try 2008. :eek: :D

beafet

12-30-2009, 04:25 PM

Again, if my math is correct, 2008 was a return of -8.41%
2007 was 1.18%

tsptalk

12-30-2009, 04:47 PM

Again, if my math is correct, 2008 was a return of -11.34%
I actually get -29.35% for 2008.

But that is without using G and F at all - Isn't that what you had said, or did I misunderstand?

Each month, put 100% into the fund that was last month's second best fund..
UNLESS, if the second best fund was G or F, then put 100% into the fund that was last month's best among C, S, or I.

Here's the spreadsheet. I may have done it incorrectly...

beafet

12-30-2009, 05:12 PM

No, sorry about the confusion. When I said "(my 2nd best fund theory, no exceptions)" I meant that you always choose the 2nd best fund, without exception. Even if that would be a G or F. Sorry about that. Your point about always being in a stock fund got me thinking more clearly.

Also, I got the following:
2007 was 1.18%
2006 was 22.46%
2005 was -3.03%

tsptalk

12-30-2009, 05:14 PM

Oh, OK. Thanks

beafet

12-30-2009, 05:27 PM

Using your spreadsheet, I get -8.49% for 2008....I'm not sure why the difference exists. I left my fund prices at the defaults that were with the calculator...maybe I need to go rethink all this.

//confused

tsptalk

12-30-2009, 08:13 PM

I'm not sure I'd trust my results 100%. I threw it together pretty quickly and didn't double check the cell calculations. I may not have even had the correct allocation each month. If you'd like me to I'll will look at it more thoroughly.

beafet

12-30-2009, 08:38 PM

Sure, if you don't mind. I'm new at all this, and I don't trust my numbers.
:)

tsptalk

12-30-2009, 10:29 PM

I also get -8.49%.

James48843

12-31-2009, 05:09 PM

End of month for December, 2009:

G= +0.25%

F= -1.55%

C= +1.94%

S= + 6.57%

I = + 1.43%

The LMBM method will move to a position of 100% "S" fund, effective COB on Monday.
(note- corrected after share prices were posted tonight. It appears they stole 0.04% off the F fund's value today, as well as 0.04% off the C fund, and 0.09% off the S fund value today. It was not reflective of the market, but rather someone tinkered with the value of all three today.

The I fund was off too due to the dollar and an unknown FV amount.

Somebody --not sure who--just swept a ton of cash today off the books with some fudged numbers. Must be an end-of-year thing.)

beafet

01-04-2010, 08:05 PM

Did anyone use this method last year? How did it do for you?

peterson82

01-05-2010, 10:43 AM

McDuck

01-05-2010, 12:24 PM

LMBF started off poorly, and did not reach positive returns until May, but dipped back down again in June. Finally, after June the strategy kept moving up. It finished 2009 at +15.8%. This looks good compared to other years, but it really is not great considering the returns people got this year.

15.8% is pretty good. Better than people that are G or F or me.

I don't understand when you say "looks good compared to other years". This has been a good method for the last decade or more.

XL-entLady

01-05-2010, 01:42 PM

End of month for December, 2009:

....
Somebody --not sure who--just swept a ton of cash today off the books with some fudged numbers. Must be an end-of-year thing.)
I'm shocked ... shocked, I tell you! :rolleyes: ROFL! :nuts:

Lady

OBGibby

01-05-2010, 01:46 PM

15.8% is pretty good. Better than people that are G or F or me.

I don't understand when you say "looks good compared to other years". This has been a good method for the last decade or more.

Does anybody have the numbers going back a decade or so? I'm curious as to how good it was...

McDuck

01-05-2010, 01:53 PM

Does anybody have the numbers going back a decade or so? I'm curious as to how good it was...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=159590&postcount=1

peterson82

01-05-2010, 01:56 PM

2005: +7.9%
2006: +6.5%
2007: +4.9%
2008: -10.6%
2009: +15.8

OBGibby

01-05-2010, 01:57 PM

Thanks, McDuck. Interesting numbers...

peterson82

01-05-2010, 02:06 PM

15.8% is pretty good. Better than people that are G or F or me.

I don't understand when you say "looks good compared to other years". This has been a good method for the last decade or more.

15.8% is great, it would make anything look good. Someone's has their feathers ruffled today.

McDuck

01-05-2010, 04:13 PM

2005: +7.9%
2006: +6.5%
2007: +4.9%
2008: -10.6%
2009: +15.8

I don't think your numbers are right.
Here is a better listing.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=159904&postcount=28

grandma

01-05-2010, 05:22 PM

Isn't Beafet asking about last month's 2nd best fund - not The Best Fund?
...which in December would have been - ......... ?

C - accordding to James #152 post

End of month for December, 2009:

G= +0.25%
F= -1.55%
C= +1.94%
S= + 6.57%
I = + 1.43%

beafet

01-05-2010, 08:01 PM

No, I was talking about Last Month's Best Fund YTD numbers...I started a new thread for the second best one. I didn't want to hijack this one anymore!

guyschultz

01-05-2010, 08:53 PM

for chickens like me this might be a great thing to look at

McDuck

01-05-2010, 09:29 PM

for chickens like me this might be a great thing to look at

Last Month Best Fund is closely related to the 20-day moving average. A better indicator is the 20-day EMA vs 50-day EMA. This is what I wish that I had been using.

James48843

01-30-2010, 04:07 PM

Last Month's Best Month fund strategy- makes an IFT today.

Here are the results from January-

G= +0.29%

F= +1.54%

C= - 3.60%

S= - 2.43%

I = - 5.17%

So the LMBM Method moves to an allocation of 100% "F" fund for February. The IFT will be placed today, and will be effective at the close of business monday.

LMBM Year to date return= -2.43%

peterson82

02-04-2010, 09:29 AM

I don't think your numbers are right.
Here is a better listing.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=159904&postcount=28

Worked some kinks out... had problems with G-fund and the end of 2007 I had a bad value.

I am getting -11.37 for 2008 and +15.8 for 2009. I am going to check those out for accuracy.

peterson82

02-04-2010, 09:30 AM

BTW, so far in Feb the shift from Negative to Positive (in stocks) happened right when one would switch to F-fund. So those in the F-fund would like the stock funds to go down!

James48843

02-04-2010, 01:09 PM

Question-

I've now seen several different folks listing "back tested" number for "Last Month Best Month" method.

I am monitoring and making trades using that system in a dummy account in the autotracker right now-

I just want to make sure I am on the same sheet of music- if either McDuck or Mayla can verify- and/or anyone else-

This is the data I am using:

I am watching the closing price on the LAST trading day of each month- the 30th or 31st of the month, for example. I then post the results here, and initiate the IFT action prior to noon on the FIRST trading day of the month, to be effective at the COB that day.

Can someone (who has some time to play with it) sit down and do a back-testing XCEL spreadsheet and go back as far as the data goes (1989??) and do a year-by-year return using those dates?

Note- prior to the "daily system," (2004?) there was only one value posted in TSP per month- and any move done would not be effective until the FIRST trading day of the following month for the REAL tsp. So we can project what it WOULD have been with daily access back before that, but we couldn't actually do it.

I just want to get one, good, valided set of numbers, by year, so I can post a sticky note on it.

Thanks in advance to anyone who wished to help take up that challenge.

malyla

02-04-2010, 02:23 PM

Question-
Thanks in advance to anyone who wished to help take up that challenge.

James48843,

I have this spreadsheet completed with the closing monthly fund % providing the recommended fund for the new month and reinvest at COB the 1st day of the month. It does not reflect the old,old delay where it was a month to make changes, but it does go back to Oct 1991. I will clean it up and send it to you. Attached is 2009 which provided a cumalative monthly returns for 2009 as shown (ended the year at 15.07%) (I need to double check this but it gives you the idea).
This may take me a day or two as I'm buried in work and I'm going to want to double check everything before I send the whole sheet.
Malyla

James48843

02-04-2010, 04:28 PM

Thanks- take your time. I just want the final end of year numbers for each year as far back as we can track. (1990's will just be G, F and C, of course) so I can make a sticky for a historical record.

Thanks

James48843

02-04-2010, 04:31 PM

So you are saying 2009 was 15.07% using LMBM?

Am I reading your excel correctly?

8195

malyla

02-04-2010, 07:20 PM

So you are saying 2009 was 15.07% using LMBM?

Am I reading your excel correctly?

8195

Yes. The jan return is the monthly return for the fund used for jan with each next months cumalative return calculated using: new month=(100*(1+[lastmonths cum return])*(1+[new month lmbf return])-100)/100

This leads to an end of year 2009 LMBF return of 15.07% as shown.

My yet-to-be-doubled-checked yearend returns for the LMBF method is as follows:
1992 2.47%
1993 3.56%
1994 0.64%
1995 29.43%
1996 26.96%
1997 9.52%
1998 31.25%
1999 9.70%
2000 (-6.46%)
2001 3.85%
2002 (-1.65%)
2003 38.73%
2004 15.48%
2005 5.70%
2006 8.18%
2007 13.78%
2008 (-11.38%)
2009 15.07%

which gives an overall 18 year % ~461.8% which is better than an aggressive buy and hold (C fund then I fund) which gets ~429% in that 18 years (it was much worse until the March-Jan runup we have just seen : LMBF=339% and agg B&H was 221% on March 1, 2009). The BizCyc B&H (F fund during Bear markets, then I in Bull markets as defined by the 8.6year business cycle is at an 18 year cum total of 1135.9%. Just shows the power of missing the bear losses (however, I did miss the 40% gains from March to Jan). Time will tell. I'll send this along shortly.
Malyla

James48843

02-27-2010, 04:09 PM

Last Month's Best Month fund strategy- makes an IFT today.

Here are the results from February 2010-

G fund= +0.24%

F fund= +0.38%

C Fund= +3.11%

S Fund= + 4.89%

I Fund= + 0.06%

So the LMBM Method moves to an allocation of 100% "S" fund for March.

The IFT will be placed today, and will be effective at the close of business monday.

LMBM Year to date return= -0.84% PRIOR TO EXECUTION OF TODAY'S IFT REQUEST.

James48843

04-01-2010, 06:31 AM

For last month- the best fund WAS the S fund- so, no change in allocation.

The LMBM method remains in "S" fund going into April.

James48843

04-01-2010, 12:56 PM

Here are the March 2010 results from the "Last Month- Best Month" fund method:

G fund: +0.27%

F-Fund: -0.11%

C Fund: +6.04%

S Fund: +7.39%

I Fund: + 6.28%

As indicated earlier this morning, that means we stay in the "S" fund- no change in allocation going into April.

Year to date return for the Last Month-Best Month method, as reported in the Autotracker, is now: +4.48% for the year.

meltorment

04-06-2010, 03:12 PM

... overall 18 year % ~461.8% which is better than an aggressive buy and hold (C fund then I fund) which gets ~429% in that 18 years (it was much worse until the March-Jan runup we have just seen : LMBF=339% and agg B&H was 221% on March 1, 2009). The BizCyc B&H (F fund during Bear markets, then I in Bull markets as defined by the 8.6year business cycle is at an 18 year cum total of 1135.9%. Just shows the power of missing the bear losses (however, I did miss the 40% gains from March to Jan). Time will tell. I'll send this along shortly.
Malyla

Can you calculate what the *BEST* performance would have been if you were prescient enough to have owned the highest yielding fund each month?

McDuck

04-10-2010, 10:25 PM

James, I think this is a decent method. But the LMBFM is based closely on the 20-day moving average with an IFT executed on the first day of the month. I think there are better methods using the 20day moving average.

James48843

05-01-2010, 08:53 PM

Here are the APRIL 2010 results from the "Last Month- Best Month" fund method:

G fund: +0.28%

F-Fund: +1.07%

C Fund: +1.58%

S Fund: +4.82%

I Fund: - 2.35%

That means we stay in the "S" fund- no change in allocation going into May.

Year to date return for the Last Month-Best Month method, as reported in the Autotracker, is now: +9.52% for the year.

Soupguy

05-27-2010, 02:01 PM

malyla

05-28-2010, 10:51 AM

How does this method compare to allocating 70/20/10 % toward the C/S/I funds? Can anyone analyze the 70/20/10 method since the inception of these funds and post each year increase/decrease and then an aggregate total of all years with a comparison of the LMBF method?

Hey Soupguy,

I put an excel spreadsheet together and placed it here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=171090&postcount=72
which shows some investing scenarios and compares them over the last 17 years. I have not had time to update it but you are free to modify for your own uses. It's based on Tom's original spreadsheet for tracking your tsp investment.

G.L. Malyla

nnuut

05-28-2010, 11:27 AM

How would this work on a two week basis, does anyone know?:confused:

malyla

05-28-2010, 12:00 PM

How would this work on a two week basis, does anyone know?:confused:
Hi nnuut,

I looked at that here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=211703&postcount=113
but it didn't work so well. There was talk that just following the 20 day moving average would give better results.

M.

James48843

06-01-2010, 07:13 PM

Hey- I forget to get the numbers today before noon. I know we have a move in the LMBM -

Anybody got the official end of May numbers?

Can anyone verify that these are correct for May?

G +0.28% F +0.85% C -7.99% S -7.51% I -11.20%

tsptalk

06-01-2010, 07:40 PM

That's correct

James48843

06-01-2010, 09:47 PM

OK- shift in LMBM fund to the "F" fund.

Tom- is it too late today?

nnuut

06-01-2010, 10:02 PM

Hi nnuut,

I looked at that here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=211703&postcount=113
but it didn't work so well. There was talk that just following the 20 day moving average would give better results.

M.
Thanks a bunch malyla, too bad.:o

tsptalk

06-01-2010, 10:10 PM

OK- shift in LMBM fund to the "F" fund.

Tom- is it too late today?
yes, too late :D - but go ahead and input it and I will manual change it tomorrow.

James48843

07-01-2010, 05:48 PM

Last Month Best Month method - I forgot to post last night- but here is the result from June:

G= +0.24%
F= +1.56%
C= -5.24%
S= -6.90%
I= -1.75%

So...we continue invested in the "F" fund.

Good luck.

James48843

07-31-2010, 12:09 PM

For July, the LAST MONTH BEST MONTH METHOD uses the following results:

G fund: + 0.23%
F Fund: + 1.07%
C Fund: + 7.01%
S Fund: + 7.00%
I Fund: +10.78%

So....for August, the LMBM Method shifts the allocation to the "I" fund.

Good luck.

malyla

07-31-2010, 01:48 PM

This does not change anything for the LMBF but my July figures are

G 0.22%
F 0.75%
C 5.93%
S 5.81%
I 10.94%

Looking for where the error is in my calculations.

Just double checked the share prices and the calculations for the month and they seem right. Weirdly, my returns match the monthly returns on the tsp up to June 2010. My June 2010 differs from the tsp website.

My May returns are:
G 0.28%
F 0.85%
C (-7.99%)
S (-7.51%)
I (-11.20%)
Which perfectly matches the tsp website as does the previous 4 months.

My June returns are:
G 0.23%
F 1.56%
C (-4.28%)
S (-6.09%)
I (-1.18%)

But the tsp website has June as:
G 0.24%
F 1.56%
C (-5.24%)
S (-6.90%)
I (-1.75%)

So, did fees get taken in June?

tsptalk

07-31-2010, 02:08 PM

This does not change anything for the LMBF but my July figures are

G 0.22%
F 0.75%
C 5.93%
S 5.81%
I 10.94%

Looking for where the error is in my calculations.

How do you figure the return malyla?

Just looking at the C-fund:

July end: 13.2035

June end: 12.339

13.2035 - 12.339 = 0.8645

0.8645 / 12.339 = 7.006%

http://www.tsptalk.com/wrapups/images/073110a.gif

malyla

07-31-2010, 02:27 PM

Whew! Found the error. Missed a day in June so all the dates were off by one. Everything matches again.

Thanks Tom.

James48843

07-31-2010, 02:36 PM

I'm running off the TSP Ticker over on http://govexec.com

9791

malyla

07-31-2010, 02:58 PM

I'm running off the TSP Ticker over on http://govexec.com

9791

Ohhh... Nice site. They have changed it since I was last there (it's been a while). Thanks James.

malyla

07-31-2010, 03:13 PM

Fixed the error and have the following returns ytd:

(-4.81%) : 100% I

0.38% : 40% C 30% S 30% I

2.36% : 20% F 30% C 30% S 20% I

4.68% : LMBF method

6.53% : Biz_Cyc method 100% F(but how long before the bond bubble implosion?)

tsptalk

08-01-2010, 11:06 AM

I'm running off the TSP Ticker over on http://govexec.com
I use http://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.html. :D

malyla

08-01-2010, 02:12 PM

:laugh::D

Noted Tom.

Soupguy

08-12-2010, 07:22 PM

Ooooph...

I fund is tanking after today.

AlmostAmos

08-31-2010, 11:27 AM

And, next month's is?

malyla

08-31-2010, 11:31 AM

And, next month's is?

I need to have today's closing price for the accurate figures, but if I had to take a wild guess:toung: I'd say the F fund for Sept:D

AlmostAmos

08-31-2010, 01:24 PM

Are most of you requesting the IFT the morning (before 12:00pm EST) of the 1st day of the month? I read back through and couldn't figure out what most were doing.

crws

08-31-2010, 01:31 PM

Are most of you requesting the IFT the morning (before 12:00pm EST) of the 1st day of the month? I read back through and couldn't figure out what most were doing.

any IFT made at this point today will process COB 9/1, and will be logged as a Sept IFT.

malyla

08-31-2010, 01:35 PM

Are most of you requesting the IFT the morning (before 12:00pm EST) of the 1st day of the month? I read back through and couldn't figure out what most were doing.

I don't trade LMBF in a Bear market (as defined by the 8.6 yr business cycle).

But, the idea is to be in the new fund of the month cob the first day of the month so a transfer before noon on the 1st day of the month is the official transfer time. I guess you can front run the signal and buy into a new fund cob of the last day of the month (like today before noon), but usually LMBF performs an IFT before noon on the 1st.

Waiting for another Bull market signal.:D

James48843

08-31-2010, 06:30 PM

I have been logging and recording the best price AFTER the close of the last trading day of the month. I.E. today's close (Aug 31st) will determine what to do before noon tomorrow.

That would be as follows: "F" fund is best for the month, and will be moving to "F" tomorrow. I'll have all the stats later this evening.

James48843

08-31-2010, 09:13 PM

Official results from "Last Month, Best Month" for August:

F Fund rises 1.28%.

Therefore, move to "F" before noon tomorrow. Here's the whole chart:

9941

James48843

10-01-2010, 10:42 AM

Move indicated on the "Last Month- Best Month" chart.

Last month, the stocks were:

G= + 0.17%

F= + 0.17%

C= + 8.92%

S= + 11.47%

I= + 9.81%

Therefore, the Last Month Best Month method will move to the "S" fund today. Move before noon today, becomes effective at COB today.

tsptalk

10-29-2010, 09:10 PM

Therefore, the Last Month Best Month method will move to the "S" fund today. Move before noon today, becomes effective at COB today.

We have a winner! S-fund had a nice month.

James48843

10-30-2010, 10:43 AM

Well, we're at the end of October. And once again, the "S" fund was the largest gainer last month- with 4.48% gain. That means we leave the money in the "S" fund as we move into November.

Here's the table, from Govexec.com:

10136

We remain invested in the "S" fund moving forward- no change for November.

tsptalk

10-30-2010, 11:25 AM

Here's the table, from Govexec.com:

GovExec? I hear TSP Talk has a nicer table. :D

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/103010a.gif (http://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.html)

James48843

12-01-2010, 08:22 PM

Well, I missed copying the table today from TSPTALK- sorry Tom.

Instead, here is the left over Govexec.com table which is still posted over there-

10265

November's best performing fund was the "S" fund, which was up 3%. So the Last Month Best Month method remains invested in "S" fund this month- no change in allocation.

Return so far this year: 5.26%, before the 2% bump up today.

James48843

12-31-2010, 10:13 PM

Last Month Best Month method makes a move today- as a result of today's action, the "I" fund became the best performing fund for the month of December. So we move to "I" fund now. This IFT will be effective at the COB Monday.

Here's the December performance:

10398

Move for LMBM method to the "I" fund.

(Note- the tracker is currently down tonight, i'll be making the IFT as soon as it comes back up this weekend. )

david.alan.williams

01-23-2011, 07:51 PM

I had just finished running the numbers on another method so since I had the spreadsheet filled in, I ran the number on the LMBM Method. I'm VERY impressed. I'm most impressed since the L Funds had over 20% losses in 2008 but this systems losses were much easier to swallow.

Attached is 1995-2010 evaluation.

D

Hallatauer

01-24-2011, 09:29 AM

Thanks for the chart! Always nice to see confirmation of successful investing strategy. Having been in the TSP 23 years, I've kept most of my money in stock funds, S,C, and I and have done well but this method shows even better than the C fund for the last 16 years. wowza

ArchAngel

01-25-2011, 11:01 PM

tsptalk

01-25-2011, 11:22 PM

I'm a bit confused (not difficult for me). According to the autotracker LMBM is sitting at 4.12% wheras the I fund is at 2.69%. How does LMBM earn almost another 2% when it has been in I all month? What am I missing?
It was actually in the S fund on the first trading day of January.

Officially, it doesn't know which fund it is going to be in during the following month until after the last share prices of the month are posted, which is too late to make an IFT on the last day of the month. That means the IFT is input on the first trading day of the new month, putting it in the new fund on the 2nd trading day of the new month.

Simple, right? :D

ArchAngel

01-25-2011, 11:26 PM

Got it now. Thanks Tom!

James48843

01-31-2011, 08:22 PM

Last Month Best Month method:

Results are in for January.

As of Jan 31, the results are: I fund continues to be the best of the lot.

We'll stay in "I" fund for the next month.

Here is the data tonight-
January 2011:

G= + 0.24%
F= + 0.13%
C= + 2.37%
S= + 1.23%
I = + 2.41%

So "I" continues to be the best performing fund, and we'll stay in "I" for February.

(Note- this graphic I got off Govexec.com tonight- and it contains errors. The prices are right, but the "daily change" is all wrong. I'll post TSPTALK's correct numbers after Tom posts them. Thanks)

10552

P.S. - the L-2050 fund officially opened today at the close of business, and is now at $10.00 a share.

Soupguy

02-01-2011, 09:27 AM

Interesting. I dumped everything into the L2050. I want to see how long it takes to get to 15 or 16 a share, then Ill dump it pick up on the LMBFM again.

Hallatauer

02-03-2011, 03:05 PM

Good month for the I Fund... and all ready a good start for February! And this with the chaos in Epgyt.

James48843

02-28-2011, 11:11 PM

Happy end of February.

Last month-Best Month method moves this month- the "I" fund was good, but "S" fund was better, so in the morning we'll place a trade to move from "I" to "S" again.

How much longer will this trend last? Who knows? Not me. So we'll go with the momentum.

Here's the data for February- showing "S" in the lead:

10694

Making the move to "S" in the morning. Happy investing.

Sensei

03-01-2011, 05:26 AM

Hi - I just discovered this thread/system tonight. Very intriguing!:cool:

I've been following the Sentiment Survey for the last several months, and am committed to see one system through for at least a year. But I'll be following this as a comparison. Thanks for sharing!

McDuck

03-01-2011, 10:45 PM

Two month report card for my LMBF:

In 14-th place out of 718 on the autotracker.

Present return: 6.38% Yearly projection: 38.28% !!!

Soupguy

04-01-2011, 06:56 AM

Looks like its the S Fund for April.

http://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.html

sippinjoes

04-01-2011, 09:33 AM

YAY...don't have to move anything!!

James48843

04-01-2011, 09:48 AM

Yes- officially the "Last Month Best Month" method remains fully invested in the "S" fund. The March gain was 2.06%, and for the year to date, we're at 7.99%.

LMBM Method stays in "S" for another month.

good luck.

10858

James48843

04-30-2011, 01:29 AM

Well, well, well.

April turned out pretty good. We were up 2.94% for the month in the S fund. Last Month's Best Fund strategy continues to do well.

However, there was a different fund that performed better.

Which means, according to the Last Month Best Month method, it's time to shift our money.

11002

Since the best fund for the month of April was the International fund (Up 6.03% for April) , we'll put in an IFT request on the LMBM Method for Monday, to move the balance into the I fund for May. Yes, it's chasing today, but that's what the LMBM method does- it sees each month which fund did best the month before, and it goes to that fund the next trading day after the month's close.

So it's IFT Monday to "I" fund.

Good luck.

jpcavin

04-30-2011, 09:21 AM

James48843

04-30-2011, 09:41 AM

Hey James

This system looks very impressive.Has anyone done any back testing for Last Month 2nd Best Fund? I read something on this thread about catching the gains a little late? Was curious how picking the 2nd best last month would fair.

Uh, yes, I think someone else at one time did some data on 2nd month. Use the "search button" up at the top bar and you might find something. But this thread isn't about 2nd month- it's about "Last month best fund".

Personally I found the "Last month best fund method" strategy to be interesting and decided to start tracking it just to see how it does. I am impressed enough myself to include it in my own real money allocation thinking.

If you are interested in tracking 2nd month, or any other system you like, you are always welcome to start your own system, start posting the moves, and then, after you get some history to start with, you are welcome to ask Tom to allow you to start an auto-tracker account to track it in.

Good luck.

jpcavin

04-30-2011, 09:48 AM

But this thread isn't about 2nd month- it's about "Last month best fund".

It was just a question. Seems several questions were asked at the start of this thread. Wasn't aware it was closed to more questions.:mad:

philcam

06-01-2011, 12:43 AM

Ouch! I Fund down -2.90%

Looks like June is the F fund at 1.31%

James48843

06-01-2011, 05:10 AM

That's what is says-

Last Month Best Month method says - move to "F" fund for June. IFT before noon today.

14021

James48843

07-01-2011, 05:39 AM

Here are June's results-

Last Month Best Month strategy moving to "G" fund today.

It came back a little, but stocks still ended up the month of June in the red.

14347

LMBM is IFT'ing into "G" fund before noon today.

Good luck.

alevin

07-04-2011, 03:32 PM

I just noticed autotracker follows LMBM method. reason I looked was I just now discovered a commercial tracking site that uses this method for tsp people, only they want to charge a nominal monthly fee for the pleasure. I almost hit the button to sign up before I realized their angle. oops, pays to read everything you can first before committing. main reason I thought of signing up and abandoning SS was they show a nice chart comparing performance of the LMBM strategy against each of the individual tsp funds, all the way back to 2000, and also a 3 year chart. no comparison current year or 1-year performance chart tho.

tsptalk

07-04-2011, 05:28 PM

main reason I thought of signing up and abandoning SS was they show a nice chart comparing performance of the LMBM strategy against each of the individual tsp funds, all the way back to 2000, and also a 3 year chart. no comparison current year or 1-year performance chart tho.
I guess I better create a nice chart showing the SS return. We'll just need to require followers to wear helmets and seatbelts. :D

alevin

07-04-2011, 08:50 PM

I guess I better create a nice chart showing the SS return. We'll just need to require followers to wear helmets and seatbelts. :D

:nuts: wasnt the chart per se, simply how it contrasted LMBM performance relative to B&H of all the indiv. funds over the past 2 recessions, 10-year perf. and 3year perf. I looked to see if could find 3-year cumulative perf. stats for SS to see how it compared to LMBM 3-year perf. but could only find one-year at a time stats for SS. :p hard to compare longterm performance between the 2. I know I know, if I'd just blindly follow SS w/o question and hang in during times of doubt, I'd be so happy with performance I'd never ever look at anythiing else. stickypants thy name is Birchtree.

James48843

07-31-2011, 07:42 PM

Well, another month has come and gone. For the month of July, it looks like the "F" fund is the winner.

So we'll be shifting the pot from "G" to "F" , with an IFT placed before noon tomorrow.

14747

Since we've been bumping around so much, perhaps it's time we get a break, and see some recovery in stocks again.

"F" fund for August, and cross fingers that we've seen the end of the summer blues.

Good luck.

Last-month-best-month goes to "F" now.

bfranklin03

08-18-2011, 09:48 PM

Hello,

I am new to this forum, and very new to the idea of using a strategy for TSP investing, and up to this point, I have had 100% in L 2040. My question is about the contribution allocation for future contributions. Does it change whenever an IFT is made at the beginning of the month, or does the contribution allocation always stay the same? I searched the forum for the answer but didn't have any luck. Thanks.

tsptalk

08-18-2011, 10:13 PM

Welcome! The contribution allocation stays the same until you change it. It's the allocat8ion of your account balance that changes if you are in multiple funds. If you have always been in the L2040, that will always stay the same. It's when you use multiple funds that you will see it change. But again, the contribution allocation will not change until you change it.

bfranklin03

08-19-2011, 09:30 AM

tsptalk

08-19-2011, 09:55 AM

Sorry about that. I don't know if the system specifies it, but I'd say changing both (interfund transfer and contribution allocation) seems reasonable in that situation.

Viva_La_Migra

08-19-2011, 10:40 AM

I was asking the question in reference to the Last Month's Best Fund Method, which is why I posted it in that forum. Sorry that my post wasn't very clear. When making an IFT at the beginning of the month as a result of a fund performing better than the one you're currently invested in, do you also change the contribution allocation to allocate 100% (or whatever percentage) into the new fund? Or, does your contribution allocation stay fixed in a certain fund as part of the LMBFM method? I was assuming it would change with the IFT so that deposits for that month would be placed in the fund forecasted to perform the best. Thanks.
You can change the contribution allocation when you do an IFT, but you certainly don't have to. In some cases, it might not make sense to do that. If the LMBFM indicates the G fund is the best performing in one month, it might mean it's a good opportunity to buy stock shares since those funds are down.

James48843

08-31-2011, 09:47 PM

Well, anorther month gone by, and another successful month for the Last Month's Best Fund method.

For August, the "F" fund turned in a nice 1.45% as the best of the funds. Our LMBM missed a fraction off that, as it was moved from G to F on the first day of August and missed some August gain. But it still turned in a nice gain for the month, and we're at 8.03% overall for the year- better than ANY single fund out there. Yes- this method has value this year. F is best right now for August, and we;ll keep a close eye moving forward for the signals that will tell us to move elsewhere soon. Just not quite yet.

So we'll keep the allocation in "F" moving forward. No change for September.

Here is the chart: