clester's Account Talk

[clester]

For anyone who cares I made a change to 100% I for Wed. The Euro stocks were up this morning and I'm looking for the delayed reaction from US markets and the weak dollar to lift the I.

Beware. My picks haven't done well lately. Hope my luck changes soon.

[Timer]

Hi Clester, I like I as well. I am 50S and 50I.

Like Tom, I am looking long term in the S fund.

= Timer

[Dakota]

Clester,

wheredo you get the euro stock info, I would like to have that information because I have been just taking a SWAG at it

[ou81200]

Dakota---

Go to CNN.com. On the left side of the screen, click on "Business at cnn money". Then on the left side of the screen, put your pointer on "World biz", but don't click. To the left of that, a blue box will come up. In the box, you will see "World Markets". Click on that. It will show you the Asia, European, and Canadian market in close to real time.



Hop this helps :).

[Dakota]

Thanks ou8 all help is appreciated looked at it. very insteresting

[clester]

I think the rise in the S&P was mainly due to buying of the beaten down insurance stocks. Oil is up today on lower heating oil. GDP tomorow. I think there is more potential for downside than upside. I'm staying I fund for tomorow. I'm thinking if US dives, the effect will be muted a little in Europe and give me some time to adjust. I want to get back into S or C. Maybe after election.

100% I fund for tomorow we'll see. The I fund chart still looks good.



http://www.tspmoney.com/tools/graph.php?i=1&emove=20&datestart=2004-01-01&dateend=2004-10-27&wd=700&ht=300.

[Show-me]

Amen Clester! I fund 100%.:^

[clester]

Today was a breather day. It wasn't down much which is a bullish sign. Tomorow will depend on the GDP report. I doubt there will be any surprises.

The market has momentum on the upside. Tomorow may be a good day if no surprises. I Fund chart still looks the best to me.

Monday maybe down some. A good excuse to take profits with the election on Tuesday. Uncertainty. Will there be a clear winner?, lawsuits lasting for weeks?, Bush?, Kerry?

Tuesday will be quiet I think. Low volume.
Wednesday if all goes well I think we're off to the races. I think there will be challenges so I may wait until Wednesday morning and see how it goes.

So Friday 100% I, Monday 100% G (we're due a penny on the G fund)

Unless, of course I change my mind in the morning

[Dakota]

pretty aggressive, I watch your forum scared to follow I on friday,if I read the foriegn markets right they are all red. what does that meaan?

[clester]

I think the election results will be decisive. I think the market today is telling us that. The Polls are telling us that. Oil is going down. Charts look good. November is going to be good and I'm afraid to miss out. The I fund should give some insulation against a big US drop maybe a chance to get out if it goes bad.

Therefore, 50% G 50% I for Wednesday. probably will go 100% I for Thurs.

[Dakota]

clester wrote:
I think the election results will be decisive. I think the market today is telling us that. The Polls are telling us that. Oil is going down. Charts look good. November is going to be good and I'm afraid to miss out. The I fund should give some insulation against a big US drop maybe a chance to get out if it goes bad.

Therefore, 50% G 50% I for Wednesday. probably will go 100% I for Thurs.


Thats what I was wondering will do the same for thursday, unless I decide to withdraw before 11:00 wed.

[clester]

It Looks like Bush has won and the US narkets should react well. I'm not sure on the I fund now. The chart looks good. If US narket do well the I should follow. I think C & I have more pent up energy, so for tomorow I'll go 33 C, 33 S, 34 I.
Unless the election drags on or the markets get scared. If that happens I'll probably go 100% I.;)

[whynot]

I am new to this. I just learned that I can change my allotments daily. What is the best way to get info.

[clester]

Lots of good advice on this site, just use it at your own risk. One site I use is TSPMONEY.com . It has a lot of good info.;)

[tsptalk]

whynot wrote:
I am new to this. I just learned that I can change my allotments daily. What is the best way to get info.
Welcome whynot! Reading this message board and the daily market comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html)) is a good start to get a feel for the market. It you want investment advice or learning material, you can check out our recommended reading forum... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum29/ (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum29/)

Thanks for joining us.
Tom

[puertorico]

JUST A COMMENT ABOUT I-FUND

When I-Fund goes way ahead of S-FUND
The dollar is weak ,So the dollar have been weak
and still weak.I dont know for how long .:^



sO , for the next time that START happen AGAIN,
"I-fund ahead or S-fund"
I will jump to I-FUND...BUT fOr now I dont know is it to late to jump in...:?.
maybe is time to jump to S-fund to go faster than I-FUND.

GOOD POINT OR NOT ? :D

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote:
I will jump to I-FUND...BUT fOr now I dont know is it to late to jump in...:?.
maybe is time to jump to S-fund to go faster than I-FUND.

GOOD POINT OR NOT ? :D

How long can the dollar fall?:shock: I'd say it's time for theS fund but I've said that for weeks now. The dollarhas to rebound eventually.

[Dakota]

tsptalk wrote:
puertorico wrote:
I will jump to I-FUND...BUT fOr now I dont know is it to late to jump in...:?.
maybe is time to jump to S-fund to go faster than I-FUND.

GOOD POINT OR NOT ? :D

How long can the dollar fall?:shock: I'd say it's time for theS fund but I've said that for weeks now. The dollarhas to rebound eventually.


It will but I win;t pull out till I see it happen,then I'll go more on s fund

[tsptalk]

Dakota wrote:
It will but I win;t pull out till I see it happen,then I'll go more on s fund

By all means, if you've been in the I fund this whole time, ride it out. I know as soon as I move to the I fund, the S will be the winner. I won't jinx ya by doing that to you;)

[Dakota]

tsptalk wrote:
Dakota wrote:
It will but I win;t pull out till I see it happen,then I'll go more on s fund

By all means, if you've been in the I fund this whole time, ride it out. I know as soon as I move to the I fund, the S will be the winner. I won't jinx ya by doing that to you;)


I bailed out of the I fund before deadline this morning. I feel it will drop like a hot rock 25g 35c 40s

[puertorico]

I will run to G too,looking for the G penny on Monday

I will go to 60-G 20-F 20-S :DVERY VERY CONSERVATIVE:D.

[clester]

I agree that a pull back is coming. I don't think it will drop like a rock though. There is too much momentum right now. Any dips will be a buying opportunity. We will zig zag higher for a while. The dollar will stay low and I fund stocks should continue to outperform. I will stay invested now untill some trends change. C fund is due to catch up.

I'm not going conservative. I'm fully invested. Still 33% C, 33% S and 34% I.

Thats my humble opinion. I've been wrong before.

:^

[Dakota]

Dakota wrote:
tsptalk wrote:
Dakota wrote:
It will but I win;t pull out till I see it happen,then I'll go more on s fund

By all means, if you've been in the I fund this whole time, ride it out. I know as soon as I move to the I fund, the S will be the winner. I won't jinx ya by doing that to you;)


I bailed out of the I fund before deadline this morning. I feel it will drop like a hot rock 25g 35c 40s



clester, after what I saw today I eat my words and if I is still good monday I will reallocate to 33s 33c 34I I like the way you think. I was very surprised when I left at noon, then just now seen todays results Great See ya

[clester]

The I fund was down .08 cents today. On the web site www.msci.com the eafe on the US dollar side shows -.04% (almost flat) Therefore tomorow we should make up that diparity. So I believe the I fund will do better that C or S tomorrow. I hope they are all up.

I'm not surprised about today. Will we be back up tomorow or will Mr Greenspan rule the dsy? I don't know. Thinking about getting out for wednesday or Thurs., just because of interest rate decision.

Opinions?

[smedlap]

clester, I myself left the market today and tomorrow resting in the G fund. I expected a much larger drop today supported by another drop tomorrow for the market to digest a great run - consolidation along a modest pullback. But tomorrow night CISCO reports expected positive earnings after the FMOC meeting. My bet is that Wednesday the market climbs for some time. Today's strength (even though flat) perplexis me. I translate that there is a lot of money on the sidelines getting ready to be played. I'm still looking for the pullback but unwilling to waite longer than Wednesday. I'm moving back in on Wednesday 100% into G with my fingers and legs crossed. I fund - too much foreign intervention discussions right now. Your thoughts.

[Dakota]

clester wrote:
The I fund was down .08 cents today. On the web site http://www.msci.com the eafe on the US dollar side shows -.04% (almost flat) Therefore tomorow we should make up that diparity. So I believe the I fund will do better that C or S tomorrow. I hope they are all up.

I'm not surprised about today. Will we be back up tomorow or will Mr Greenspan rule the dsy? I don't know. Thinking about getting out for wednesday or Thurs., just because of interest rate decision.

Opinions?


hey clester where ya been? I'm staying moderately agressive see yas

[Chips]

Hello All, Thought I would throw out my 0.02. Been in this for a few years and just moved from G to 48C, 48S, and 2I. I'm in long and looking aggressively towards the future. Hope to have some fun in the process and learning more about the I, still a little sceptical about it.

[tsptalk]

Welcome Chips!

[clester]

Hey Dakaota,

I'm still here just letting all my money ride right now.. I'm 33% c, 33% s, and 34% I.

I think we will basically go up for awhile. I'll stay fully invested and I won't try any wiggles untill the charts break down. Right now I'm just riding the wave and keeping my fingers crossed. I was lucky enogh to be in last week. WHOOPIE!

[sonofthunder]

I like the I Fund too but 100% is too steep for me right now as I have noticed how high the share prices are getting. I wonder if this is really a helpful indicator though. I don't know if many have noticed but the morningstar rating on the I fund is 4 Stars. Where as on the S Fund the rating in only 2 stars. But many I have read elsewhere agree with you when our dollar is down the I Fund is the one to jump into. I have been trying to find a good place to keep an eye onour dollar and how it might do in the near future. Any ideas?

[tsptalk]

sonofthunder wrote:
I have been trying to find a good place to keep an eye onour dollar and how it might do in the near future. Any ideas?
Welcome sonofthunder!

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex

I also use decisionpoint.com but that is a pay site.

[sonofthunder]

tanks, :^just learnin to git around this site. need more hrs. in my day. by the by sire where & howmight one pick up an avatar and insert it? am i new at this stuff? yep born yesterday. tanks again.

[tsptalk]

For avatars, go to the top of the page and click on "My Account". Then toward the middle of that page, there is a menu. Click on "Avatar".

[grandma]

:#...speaking of avatars - the hands on my clock are supposed to be spinning - I mean Really Spinning . Did shrinking it to fit cause the loss of animation?? :?

[tsptalk]

I don't think the animated gifs work there. Mine is also supposed to be flailing his arms about, typing.

[EW_ret]

This is your resurrected account talk thread. You must have an "clester's Account Talk" thread when you open an account. Since your talk thread is from 2004 I renamed it and made an entry. Good luck and investing!:)

[clester]

Thanks EW,
I've been around awhile. Just haven't been tracked. Thought I'd throw in my 2 cents.

My timing method is basically playing trend channels. If long term trend (50 day moving average) is up , I'll stay at least 50% in stocks, and move around 50% depending on where we're at in the short tem trend channel. I also like to be in the fund thats performing the best in the short term ( 1 month or so). Therefore, today I'm 50% c and 50% g because we're at the top of the c fund channel (and it has the best short term returns) and the 50 dma is up. Did that make sense?

Hey Vectorman, get your account started too!

[clester]

S fund opened up higher than the C fund again, that make 3 days in a row. Big caps slowing down? I guess it has to do with the 1527 mark, people getting nervous. Can we close above it today?

[clester]

50 dma is still in an uptrend and S fund is performing better the last few days so I moved my 50% C fund amount to S fund. Still 50% G because we're near the top of the channels.

[clester]

Looks like we may have a sell off this afternoon and tomorrow will be a question mark. C fund is less volitile, so I changed my mind to stay 50% C fund.

[clester]

I've been burned by the I fund lately, but its attempting a breakout again. So, I'm going 25% I , 25% G and keeping 50% C. I'm a little concerned about Friday and next tuesday, Seasonality wise.

[clester]

1622


C fund still outperforming on a monthly basis. Looks like the sideways move has put us in the lower half of the channel. If we're down this morning I may add to C fund. I fund is going to bite me again.

[clester]

Going in 100% C. C fund is performing best and we're now at the bottom of the channel and close to 20 DMA. (Buy the dip?????) Will watch for break of 20 DMA to lighten up.

[clester]

Looks like everyone is bailing out today. Whats up? Could be a big sell off this afternoon. Good day to buy IMHO

[clester]

So far holding 1510 level. There is some support from back in early may at this level. If we bounce from here the trend of bouncing off the bottom of the trend line (or 20 DMA) will be intact. if not watch out. IMO we will bounce, if not today then tomorrow. TSPtalkers bailed today though. That worries me a little. All that mone will come out this afternoon and probably push us down.

[SkiUtah]

I'm follow the trends, and posted earlier that there is a potential greenspin trend, he talks negative, the market tanks. Last time it was that 4% drop....I got out for the weekend.

[weatherweenie]

So far holding 1510 level. There is some support from back in early may at this level. If we bounce from here the trend of bouncing off the bottom of the trend line (or 20 DMA) will be intact. if not watch out. IMO we will bounce, if not today then tomorrow. TSPtalkers bailed today though. That worries me a little. All that mone will come out this afternoon and probably push us down.

Down to 1,508.66.

Had 50% in G on Wed., put that 50% in C/I for today. :(
Bailed for Friday.

[clester]

1623

We have held the 20 DMA. Will it hold tomorrow? We're at a critical stage. If we break the trend, who know whats next.

[clester]

Boy, I was surprised this morning when I first looked at the market. I intentionally didn't check anything until this morning. I was expecting another leg down.( My emotions) . Luckily , I followed the trend and bought the down day. I see several TSPtalkers going to I fund today. I had that same idea, but it bitten me lately. Seems like the I has done pretty well over our holiday breaks. Anyone have stats on that?

[clester]

I hope we have a short covering rally this afternoon. Fridays have been good lately I think because shorts get out for the weekend.

[clester]

-fv has gotten me twice lately in the I fund. My timing really sucks. Glad I only had 25% in it. I should have stayed with my game plan and used the best performing fund. (C fund)

1625

[clester]

C fund still holding the 20 dma and is still in an up trend. Also as this chart shows the C fund is still outperforming over the last 2 months. I'm staying in until the trend changes or 20 dma is broken. The pattern of the channel tops and bottoms is also intact.
1637

[clester]

C fund is still performing well and 20 dma is in an uptrend. I like to play the trend channel and as we approach the upper part of the channel take 50% out. We are approaching that point, but I don't think we're quite there. Fridays and Mondays have been good the last few weeks. I'm contemplating taking 50% out today, but technically I should stay all in for awhile. Maybe until Monday.??

[clester]

Getting a little nervous and we're above halfway in the c fund channel. So, I'm taking 50% out to G. 50% G and 50% C

[clester]

1641

It looks like S FUND has taken the lead int the short term (1 Month), but they're all pretty close now. C fund appears to be a little over halfway up the channel. We could go as high as 1560 before a pullback. Although, we have been up for 5 days straight. I will probably increase my exposure on any pullback.

[nnuut]

I see things at the top of their channels. What do you do then?:confused::confused: Invest more? Yes! with insider information, Got any?:worried:

[clester]

I see things at the top of their channels. What do you do then?:confused::confused: Invest more? Yes! with insider information, Got any?:worried:

I appears to me we are in the upper half of the channel, thats why I took 50% out Friday.

[RunningFool]

Best insider advice I have ever gotten: Markets go up, markets go down, Sell when they're high, Buy when they're down. You will ALLWAYS make money. That will be $.50, please.:laugh: I just realized there is no cent symbol on my keyboard. Probably one of those ALT-CTRL,Shift esc key combination thingys.

[RunningFool]

Somewhere in Arkansas, near where one river crosses another river. That's all I'm saying.:D

[clester]

Looks like it's time to buy. 20 dma is about 1520 which has been solid support. 1527 (The old high might also give some support). Time to buy the dip. I'll go back in 100%. I've been eyeing the S fund. It's outperformed the last few days, but I'll stick with C fund for now.

[clester]

I think today fits right in with how the market's been behaving for a while. The only exception being the Feb drop. As I write this we are right at the 20dma and I expect a bounce by this afternoon. If we close below 1520 (the 20dma) I will have to go into defense mode.
1647

[clester]

Correction the 20 day ema is at 1517.

[clester]

We are in oversold area now and I think tomorrow will be an up day. I regret that I went 100% in too early, but thats the way it goes. We are below the 20 day ema which is worrisome. I am considering the S fund for tomorrow, expecting a bounce because we're oversold and looking for some short covering before the weekend.

[clester]

Lots of folk running to G today. Looks like we see further selling this afternoon. I would be surprised if we didn't bounce tomorrow. Could be a dead cat though. Lots of fear in the air around here. Time to buy right?
No matter what if we don't hold the 50 day ema I'll take some out.

[clester]

I know it can't be used for the tracker, but as I made my transaction today, I noticed I was still 50% G. Either I didn't make the transaction or TSP didn't. I don't know, but I won't complain. 100 S for tomorrow

[clester]

Playing the short term channels is out. Long term channel (1 year) is intact, but a long way to the bottom of the channel. 50 Day ema has held so far today on the s&p. I'm expecting a bounce for a few days, but maybe another leg down. Right now I'm thinking I may get out for Tuesday.

[clester]

Still not getting a good feeling about the markets, but fell I should be in for at least one more day. So I moved to C fund (not as volitile)

[clester]

The markets seem ok today, but I've got that uneasy feeling. Maybe its the 10 year note. Still holding the 50 day ema. Tuesdays scare me anyway. Not much news until Wednesday's retail sales. I can't see a good reason to stay 100% in for tomorrow. I'll go 50% G and keep 50% C

[clester]

Nice bounce here at about 12 o'clock. If we continue up today that would mean 2 pretty good days in a row. Maybe, buy the red and sell the green time?

[clester]

I went 50% C and 50% I. Fridays have been good for at least 6 weeks and I bekieve CPI will be inline. The Fair valuation in the I fund (See Griffins comments) and the dollar are reasons for the move. I have been burned the last couple of time I went int the I fund. Hope this time is different. Also US markets up big yesterday and some follow through today is a good sign.

[clester]

Since we've had a good run this week, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pull back. We're near overbought or already there. All the funds are near their tops and may see some risistance. I like to keep 50% in while while 50 dma is an uptrend, but I'm getting a little nervous here near the top. I fund is still in a range and has been for awhile. Therefore, I'm going 100% G. Since I like to keep 50% in I'll probably pu it back in on any weekness.

[clester]

Very quiet day so far. It seems many TSPers going to G for tomorrow. So, we may get a dip this afternoon. I won't play it. Too risky. Plus Tuesdays scare me. Maybe, I'll dip in a little for Wed if we get that dip.

[clester]

We're still flat to slightly down. Not enough down to entice me in yet. This slow down trend could pick up steam. No good reason to get in except we're above the 20 dma and in an long term up trend. I would like to go in 50%, but seems a little risky. Since I'm out already I stick it out for another day.

[clester]

I got lucky yesterday. Just had a feeling it would sell off. It worked out well as S&P lost over 1%. I went in 50% yesterday and I love Fridays lately. I'll keep doing what works. I'll go in 100% today .nice recovery so far. 50C 50 I

[fedgolfer]

I love Fridays lately.

I think the Dow win streak on fridays is something like 13 or 14.

[clester]

S&P is now getting oversold and at the bottom of the channel. I fund makes me nervous. 100% C

[clester]

I see alot of TSPTalkers buying today. Could be a rally at the close.

[clester]

Selling some GREEN. Maybe buy back by Thursday. Nice bounce off the 50 day EMA. I'm not convinced though. Tuesdays scare me a little, so thats another reason. I think Thur and Fri may be good.

[clester]

Well that didn't go as planned. Back to 100% C for Wed.

[clester]

Seems we're in a sideways channel now and in the upper half of it. Stochastics show that we're overbought. I'm looking for a retracement. I like staying in 50% while we're in an uptrend, but it looks a little risky right now.

[clester]

My strategy is to be in at least 50% while we're in an uptrend. I've violated that and have lost out some. C and S have been up too much it seems and I has broken out of its basing pattern. So, the I seems the best bet for my 50%. As others have said the dollar my hurt me there, but I'll probably ride it for awhile. I hate the I for short term plays. FV has bitten me too many times.

[clester]

Moving to I fund for several reasons. 1)Tame inflation data should help the I fund. 2)Its due to play catch-up. 3) It not as overbought as USM. Looks like a good day to load up. 4) Chart is in great shape.

I'm not sure where FV's will come. I'm not really gung-ho, but odds seem to be in favor of continued climb in the short term.

[clester]

I really want to move a little to the side. But what a great buying opportunity today. Looking for a big week next week. We've rested this week. 100% C

[clester]

Looks like another good buying opportunity today. It the routine holds up we'll bounce tomorrow. Looking at the charts it looks like we'll be at the bottom of the short term channel (1 month). I'm in the I fund and its getting hammered. Should I stay for the bounce in the I tomorrow? or go to the C for the bounce? Lets see how the day unfolds.

[clester]

Looks like the S fund is way oversold today. It should get a bounce soon. Dollar is at resistance level of 80. EU is oversold also, but dollar may bounce also. I think I'll give the S a whirl.

[clester]

Really unsure today. The markets seem to be oversold (per stochastics). Especially the S fund. It has some catching up to do. So, I decided to just let it ride.

[clester]

I have reached my pain threshold. I'll move 50% to G or F. So, for those contrarians out there, you have a buy signal. I look for a short covering bounce at the close. I think they'll want to close position for the week. (I'm hoping here). We come down so far so fast we've got to have a bounce. Where are all the dip buyers? At least today its a modestly quiet day.

[clester]

I can't stay on the sidelines right now, although I afraid (probably good). I'm glad today has been flat so far. hope it stays that way. We are way oversold, especially the I fund. S fund continues to lag and it might bounce a little harder, its drifting further than the C fund( safer). I expect a couple days up and then lower again.

[clester]

I'm expecting a bad reaction, at least initially, to the fed statement. So, I went 50 g 50 i. I may buy back in for Wednesday. We'll see.

[clester]

I'm looking to play the FV thing with the I fund. I plan to be out for Friday. Subject to change. I'm looking for a negative reaction after the fed and then a reversal for tomorrow.

[clester]

Looks like another up day. Good day to take some off the table. The last couple Fridays have been bad. I will probably go 100% G for Friday. The question is will the credit scare be back? UK and EU have interest rate meetings tomorrow also.

[clester]

I don't want to be in for friday. They've been bad lately. We were overbought yesterday, but with this mornings sell off we'll probably come off that. 100% G

[FogSailing]

It will be interesting to see if the sub-prime woes follow the market into tomorrow. The central banks seem to be finally starting to step up...but they may be trying to be surgical...inwhich case...I don't think we're through this yet. It could be that we test the 200dma again before this si all thru..

Good luck in your investing..

FS

[clester]

I'm going to sit today out. If we finish down I may try to play an oversold bounce for Monday. It's too wild out there. No one knows what to expect. I think we're in for a long rough road.

[clester]

Based the the ebbnflow following (everyone selling I fund) I bet the I fund takes a dive tomorrow. I call it the TSP effect. I haven't tracked it yet, but I think there is a correlation. We have a lot of money commulatively.

[clester]

So far my theory of a similar pattern to 1998 is intact. Then the fed cut .25% in sept. and .5% in oct. The market took off after the .5% Bernanke cut .5% first. Look at the chart for 1998 starting in oct compared to sept 2007. I don't like look at those types of comparisons very often, but it fits very well chart-wise and economy-wise. Only time will tell.

[clester]

Well I for one is glad this year is over. It's been my worst year yet vs the S & P. Too many bad decisions and being caught in every big drop. I didn't have as much time this year to spend on research and such, and it shows. It does take time to be able to time the market. I'm hoping for a better year and plan on going back to the basics (the way I used to trade). I think this year will have several big swings sorta like last year. I hope everyone makes a lot of money this year! Good luck.

[poolman]

Hey Clester,

Happy Birthday and a Happy New Year! :D

[nnuut]

Happy Birthday Clester!!:D 5388

[wv-girl]

Happy Birthday, Clester. Here's to a great year with many happy returns, (clink)!

[KevinD]

Happy Birthday!

[clester]

Well what a turn of events. I did so bad last year that I just about gave up. This year is just the opposite.

I'm feeling a little nervous about the run-up. Thinking about taking some off the table. But, the only thing that seems to be working is sentiment. Looking at the tracker, most everyone is still out of stocks. Therefore, I have hope of the rally continuing (contrarian view). Most people I talk to are very skeptical of the rally (bad economic news) and are waiting for a pull back to get in (especially those that missed out on the current rally or have locked in their profits and gotten out). That's another positive. Will the crowd finally jump in? Will the shorts close out their positions? The market is still heavily shorted. (more positives)
So, I will stay with the current trend for now and wait for some sort of technical (chart) breakdown to get out.

[Birchtree]

Somehow I just knew that you were going to hold tight. A move above SPX 940 and especially a move above 1000 would take the worst case extended bear market outcome off the table. You are in an enviable position - how's the pressure? Look over your shoulder at those gunslingers riding up on your position.

[amoeba]

Looking for technicals to get out? Well, for one thing, the 20 dma in SPY has crossed above the 50dma, and for another, the ^VIX has dropped below 40; both signs of complacency and over-optimism in a crushing bear market.

What I liked about today was the double resistance at 815. And our bond shares hit 12.6 for the first time in months. I think there may be some upside momentum in play; but could be short term. It's mostly hot air reaction - no fundamentals - and this is earnings season.

Keep your eyes open and finger on the button.

[Birchtree]

Gosh, the last time I saw the "Cooler" he was taking the train to Kingsport, Tennessee. What ever you do don't let him near your house or try to be your friend. He did have a nice visit in Virginia.

[clester]

Still seems to be a lot of skepticism out there about this rally. But, bottom line is we are stair stepping up for now and the trend is your friend. That said, I am looking for a breakdown of the trend and will get out when the trend breaks.

So, I am cautiously optimistic but have my finger on the eject button.

[Birchtree]

You must have retracted your decision to move to safety

[clester]

You must have retracted your decision to move to safety
Yes I did. I was expecting a break of the trend but it didn't happen.

[clester]

Well another good week. It was a little iffy early in the week. I had made a transfer to G fund but cancelled it. I am still on the lookout for the trend to break. If it does I will take some off the board. Some positives for the rally to continue is that most TSPtalkers ars are in G or F and many people I talk to are skeptical of the rally. Commentators on CNBC are generally negative also.

All these things are positives.

Negatives are the jobless rate, bank issues, and consumer confidence.

I say let it ride for now. The trend is your friend.

[Birchtree]

Well you won't see me step on Superman's cape - good profits to follow. I'll be satisfied if I can make it to the zero line - anything after that is gravy. Or isit groovy.

[clester]

Well, so much for the trend break. Lost my #1 ranking so that takes some pressure off.
I feel much better about the market but I would feel better if we had a pull back. My gut is saying "you better get in or you'll miss the boat" so a pull back is probably coming soon.

[clester]

Lots of people loading up right up here near the top. Folks afraid of missing out. I feel it too. I'm fighting the urge. I have low will power! Buy the dip?????

[JTH]

"you better get in or you'll miss the boat"

Hey buddy that was one sweet 6 week snipe you picked up!

Are you getting lonely in G yet? :cheesy:

[clester]

Hey buddy that was one sweet 6 week snipe you picked up!

Are you getting lonely in G yet? :cheesy:
I'm feeling left behind now and I got the itch to get in. That means I probably shouldn't.:) I'm looking for a big pull back soon. Sentiment is what worked for me before so I will play it till it quits working. Lots of folks gettin" fully invested and sentiment is pretty positive. TSPers are pretty bullish (and invested). I think the run is over for now.

[Boghie]

Clester,

Just remember it's a retirement fund.

Gambling too hard, guessing wrong, and playing loose can lead to many a night with a fine plate of Alpo:p in your golden years.

Your 21% gain this year (with another 2%-3% coming in the G Fund) would be a great two year average. Don't know what you did last year though ;). If the market corrects you can jump in. To me the bull seems run. We shall see...

[clester]

Clester,

Just remember it's a retirement fund.

Gambling too hard, guessing wrong, and playing loose can lead to many a night with a fine plate of Alpo:p in your golden years.

Your 21% gain this year (with another 2%-3% coming in the G Fund) would be a great two year average. Don't know what you did last year though ;). If the market corrects you can jump in. To me the bull seems run. We shall see...
Very true!

[TrueBlue400]

I have to agree. I have heavy I and S myself. I think small caps and the emerging markets will recover faster than large caps.

[grandma]

7909Happy Birthday to our #4 leader !


..clester - are you a hobby glass blower in Real Life?

[wv-girl]

7909Happy Birthday to our #4 leader !


..clester - are you a hobby glass blower in Real Life?
Happy Birthday. Seems like there a lot of us Capricorn's on the mb.

:laugh:

[Aviator_Guy]

Congratulations Clester on having what I consider the top tsptalk return for 2009. Truly Outstanding!! :cool::cool:

[clester]

Congratulations Clester on having what I consider the top tsptalk return for 2009. Truly Outstanding!! :cool::cool:
Thanks.

I have had my bad years too. However, I am glad to have had such a good year. You haven't done so bad yourself!

[KevinD]

10435 10434 10435

10433

[clester]

Thanks. Enjoying retirement!

[grandma]

Clester, I am hoping your birthday weekend was great, and was noticeably different from just any other day since retirement - :D

[clester]

Thanks. It was a good day.

[clester]

I don't hear this on TV but does anyone else see that Germany seems to be taking over Europe without firing a shot. They have now gotten most of the EU countries to give up their sovereignty with these new fiscal controls. Britain and a few others are holding out. They are definitely in charge.

Perhaps, that's good. At least it's voluntary. It may help with the markets. I'm still looking for a breakout but if we go up today then yesterday's low would be a good exit point if one were to buy today.

[RealMoneyIssues]

I don't hear this on TV but does anyone else see that Germany seems to be taking over Europe without firing a shot. They have now gotten most of the EU countries to give up their sovereignty with these new fiscal controls. Britain and a few others are holding out. They are definitely in charge.

Perhaps, that's good. At least it's voluntary. It may help with the markets. I'm still looking for a breakout but if we go up today then yesterday's low would be a good exit point if one were to buy today.
Yup, I noticed that too a few months ago as I started to take notice of the European debt issues and how that related to the Euro control over the individual countries. After the British PM's comments, I think that it might be on the minds of just a few people in London too...

[clester]

Ok. We stopped the bleeding for a day. The Nasdaq filled a gap from last week. There is still one to go. It has had a bullish crossover of 50 and 200 dma.

Spx needs to get back above the 50 day soon.

We don't really have a strong case either way.

[clester]

Things seem better today. $tran bounced off 50 dma and we have a higher low on indices which gives us a uptrend. Doom and gloom over Europe may have played out for a few days. Holding over the weekend is scary. Maybe all the folks shorting are covering in case of good news.

[JTH]

Things seem better today. $tran bounced off 50 dma and we have a higher low on indices which gives us a uptrend. Doom and gloom over Europe may have played out for a few days. Holding over the weekend is scary. Maybe all the folks shorting are covering in case of good news.

What if it's just a quick 3-day bear flag, followed by more downside? AGG is up today...

[clester]

Could be, of course. Today is options expiration too.

I get this feeling though that we may trend up for a while longer. My sell signal is the low of 2 days ago. That is the the trend line and would give us a lower low.

It's also a contrarian view. Very negative commentary on TV.

[Bquat]

What if it's just a quick 3-day bear flag, followed by more downside? AGG is up today... You may be right.:)

[nnuut]

It appears that we are Walking Down the Wall of Worry?

[Bquat]

It appears that we are Walking Down the Wall of Worry?

What me worry. I'm on my lilly in the little pond (red circle) below.:worried:?

[clester]

Looks to me like we are in a triangle pattern from October. The trend line from the top is going down while the trend line from lows is climbing. We should get a resolution soon. We are also hovering around the 50 dma in S&P. Not much conviction either way. Sentiment on TV is bad, Europe sucks, and china is slowing, so maybe that will help from a contrarian viewpoint.

[clester]

Looks to me like we are in a triangle pattern from October. The trend line from the top is going down while the trend line from lows is climbing. We should get a resolution soon. We are also hovering around the 50 dma in S&P. Not much conviction either way. Sentiment on TV is bad, Europe sucks, and china is slowing, so maybe that will help from a contrarian viewpoint.
Nice rally! Still not much help on charts though. We need a break above the 200 dma. If we can make a run past that we may have some room to run.

[clester]

Nice rally! Still not much help on charts though. We need a break above the 200 dma. If we can make a run past that we may have some room to run.
Ditto. Still in a triangle pattern from Oct. nice recovery yesterday shows there may be some appetite for stocks. Looking for that breakout.

[clester]

Ditto. Still in a triangle pattern from Oct. nice recovery yesterday shows there may be some appetite for stocks. Looking for that breakout.
Ditto. Still in the triangle pattern. Not worried about selloff today. Nothing has changed. Waiting for a resolution of descending highs and ascending lows. Looks like it will be Jan before we find out.

[grandma]

16963
Happy birthday to you, Clester ! And may you continue to climb upwards in the accounting!

[nnuut]

Enjoy Today It's Yours!:laugh:
16967

[clester]

Thanks, been a great day. :)

[RealMoneyIssues]

Happy Birthday Clester. Thanks for all your informative posts!!!

God Bless !

[tsptalk]

HB2U clester!

[clester]

Well, after a frustrating start to the year I have decided to have a system to help me with allocation. I have resisted it but when you get out of sync like I have lately you need it. So I won't go into detail, but I will use some quantitative anaylsis type algorithms that I have developed. I don't advise folks to follow it. It is undergoing testing.

I am 100 % C fund today and a possible partial sell trigger could happen today.

[JTH]

Well, after a frustrating start to the year I have decided to have a system to help me with allocation. I have resisted it but when you get out of sync like I have lately you need it. So I won't go into detail, but I will use some quantitative anaylsis type algorithms that I have developed. I don't advise folks to follow it. It is undergoing testing.

I am 100 % C fund today and a possible partial sell trigger could happen today.

Cool, so are you saying a buy signal was triggered recently, or are you following an old buy signal.

[clester]

Cool, so are you saying a buy signal was triggered recently, or are you following an old buy signal.
The 100% in signal was given a couple months back. This system will not try to time the highs and lows btw. I am taking Physics classes for my retirement hobby but I am now going to start a computer science degree. One project I want to start is a software program that would use a quant. Algorithm the give tsp allocations. That might take a while. I want it to be automatic so I need to find out how to find the daily prices my program can fetch each day to do its calculations. I'm thinking of using the actual tsp funds and prices if I can.

Right now I'm just doing it manually.

[clester]

My signal has stayed 100% C fund through this correction although yesterday we a had a big warning flag. If I get confirmation of this warning today it will trigger a 50% trade out of stocks.

However, today looks good so far and perhaps it won't get triggered. This could be the V bottom. We could have flushed out all the sellers yesterday.

This system is supposed to limit trades and keep my emotions at bay. My gut said sell a few days ago but with limited trades I couldn't have got back in till next month. :(

Anyway. Holding C for now.

[jkenjohnson]

My signal has stayed 100% C fund through this correction although yesterday we a had a big warning flag. If I get confirmation of this warning today it will trigger a 50% trade out of stocks.

However, today looks good so far and perhaps it won't get triggered. This could be the V bottom. We could have flushed out all the sellers yesterday.

This system is supposed to limit trades and keep my emotions at bay. My gut said sell a few days ago but with limited trades I couldn't have got back in till next month. :(

Anyway. Holding C for now.

Do you post your signal every day?

[clester]

Do you post your signal every day?
I'll try.

No confirmation to sell with the bounce. C fund still looks better with my system than S and I for now.

Holding 100% C

[jkenjohnson]

I'll try.

No confirmation to sell with the bounce. C fund still looks better with my system than S and I for now.

Holding 100% C

The easiest way is to post it in your signature, then you can get on RMI's OCD chart, if you aren't already.

[clester]

The easiest way is to post it in your signature, then you can get on RMI's OCD chart, if you aren't already.
Ok, how's this.

[clester]

One of my indicators gave a sell signal, but not enough to trigger a sell yet. But it could be soon if I get another sell from one indicator that is barely positive.

[jkenjohnson]

Ok, how's this.

Great. Thanks. I'm holding too, even though the sentiment survey is going to G. My system is still on a buy.

[clester]

Getting a partial sell signal so, 50% out of C to G

[jkenjohnson]

Getting a partial sell signal so, 50% out of C to G

Still in 100%. I hope I don't regret it.

[clester]

Unfortunately I'm getting another sell signal. That means I'm done for the month.

[jkenjohnson]

Unfortunately I'm getting another sell signal. That means I'm done for the month.

Did you look at Tom's seasonality chart?

[clester]

Did you look at Tom's seasonality chart?
No, because that isn't part of my system. I hate to get out because I think we should be going up and I will be out out trades. But I need to follow my system. Not sure what's going on. Could be Spain or just profit taking. since we are selling in April maybe we won't in May. Apple is having a correction which seems to be pulling the indexes down like it brought them up before. I think when it's done correcting we may go back up.

[clester]

It's getting close to buy time. 10 year treasurys are testing bottom support, AGG has RSI well over 70. Both indicate time to sell them. So, that should be good for stocks. When bounce starts I will start moving into stocks. I won't try to time the bounce. Maybe when we get some Greek resolution and a flush out?

Patience.

[clester]

It's getting close to buy time. 10 year treasurys are testing bottom support, AGG has RSI well over 70. Both indicate time to sell them. So, that should be good for stocks. When bounce starts I will start moving into stocks. I won't try to time the bounce. Maybe when we get some Greek resolution and a flush out?

Patience.
Seems that folks are still trying to buy the dips which doesn't allow a good sell off. When will they quit or give up and sell?

That would be the place to buy. A long red candlestick.

I think we are getting close.

[nnuut]

Seems that folks are still trying to buy the dips which doesn't allow a good sell off. When will they quit or give up and sell?

That would be the place to buy. A long red candlestick.

I think we are getting close.
Timing that one may be a little tricky, I think I'll wait this one out.

[clester]

Timing that one may be a little tricky, I think I'll wait this one out.
Yes. I never try to time the bottom. I need to see a bounce starting. That falling knife is sharp.

[nnuut]

Yes. I never try to time the bottom. I need to see a bounce starting. That falling knife is sharp.
Exactly!
18873

[Minnow]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3KA9I_iqVSY/TkMbx3k2kgI/AAAAAAAAAA8/Slhg7lq86NI/s1600/dow-down-500.jpg

Come on guys, at least I'm trying. I still got an arm, a foot and a good eye left, I think I've got the hang of it now. 6th time's a charm, right?:D

[nnuut]

Cool Minnow, now you've got the idea!:D 18874

[clester]

Looks like the 200 SMA may get tested. Anyway, I would expect some support soon. RSI is under 30 on s&p which seldom happens. Agg RSI is about 70 which means it may be topping. Puts me in G fund for now.

[clester]

Looks like the 200 SMA may get tested. Anyway, I would expect some support soon. RSI is under 30 on s&p which seldom happens. Agg RSI is about 70 which means it may be topping. Puts me in G fund for now.
The last 2 years, the best plan would have been sell in May and buy again in September. Will the pattern repeat?


We have elections this year that may affect things. Probably for the worse with the budget battle coming.

[ATCHUNTman]

ThreeStories, I wish I would have followed you to the G Fund...gettin hammered!!

[clester]

ThreeStories, I wish I would have followed you to the G Fund...gettin hammered!!
Good to see you on the board. I'm playin it safe. Not making much in G, but not losing any. A 10% decline is considered a correction. From the high of 1420 recently that would put us at 1278. Guess where the 200 DMA is?

Anyway Jeff, it's hard to know what to do. It could be a bumpy summer.

[ATCHUNTman]

Yep, it's been ugly the last few weeks! Congrats to you for your timely move to the G!

[clester]

Big red candle and an RSI below 30..... Boy, the bottom looks near to me. But, sometimes these things go longer than you think.

I'm tempted...

[clester]

Big red candle and an RSI below 30..... Boy, the bottom looks near to me. But, sometimes these things go longer than you think.

I'm tempted...
Todays bounce probably an oversold rally. If we could get some good news this weekend on Europe we may get a few weeks rally. Tricky holding over the weekend but I'm chomping at the bit to buy here.

[ATCHUNTman]

Well did you jump in?

[clester]

Well did you jump in?
Nope. Glad I didn't. I need to see some stabilization first. As mentioned above. That falling knife can get you.

Patience is the key. Also, who knows what could happen this weekend?

I fell like we're close. Maybe the 200 dma will give some support.

[Boghie]

I was looking for a bounce too.
Something like a change of mood.
However, not much bounce, not so much.

When a big IPO gives the 'smart money' the option to sell on a bump - and it is taken - then the knife is still falling...

[ATCHUNTman]

I'm still hanging on...for now...

[clester]

Starting the week off with a bounce but will it hold? If it holds, is it a 1 or 2 day thing? The past 2 years May was down but had a short term rally at the end of the month. We are down about 9 % from the high and the month. We hardly ever that big a move in a month, up or down. RSI's are below 30 (oversold). We are nearing the 200 dma. A test of that would be perfect for a nice relief rally.

[clester]

All the stars have aligned for S fund. Buying today.

[jkenjohnson]

All the stars have aligned for S fund. Buying today.

Yesterday's S gain was nice. I hope today is too - I need to gain back the 13.5% gain that I rode all the way down to -0.05%. It is tough making money in this market.

[ATCHUNTman]

All the stars have aligned for S fund. Buying today.

Care to elaborate for an old golfing buddy? Thanks!

[clester]

Care to elaborate for an old golfing buddy? Thanks!
I'm a little concerned with such a big pop the last 2 days. Too much too fast?

[clester]

Care to elaborate for an old golfing buddy? Thanks!
I look at a number of indicators (I like the RSI), chart patterns, and sentiment. All those are confirming a buy.

[ATCHUNTman]

I'm a little concerned with such a big pop the last 2 days. Too much too fast?

True...I need some pop tho!

[clester]

I look at a number of indicators (I like the RSI), chart patterns, and sentiment. All those are confirming a buy.
Actually, if I would have followed the RSI only, I would have bought Friday when it got down to 20.

[ATCHUNTman]

thanks and best of luck!

[ATCHUNTman]

Actually, if I would have followed the RSI only, I would have bought Friday when it got down to 20.

Well, glad to hear you have some confirmation. Hard to hold/buy last weekend after all the down days. I wish I would have been in the G with you the last few weeks.

[clester]

Well, glad to hear you have some confirmation. Hard to hold/buy last weekend after all the down days. I wish I would have been in the G with you the last few weeks.
It's going to be a bumpy road this summer I think.

[ATCHUNTman]

It's going to be a bumpy road this summer I think.

I agree. Hopefully we can navigate some gains.

[clester]

Ugly reversal day yesterday and follow through this morning. I will be watching the recent low on S fund for support. If that breaks, I will sell. At least I have a reference point.

[jkenjohnson]

Ugly reversal day yesterday and follow through this morning. I will be watching the recent low on S fund for support. If that breaks, I will sell. At least I have a reference point.

I started to sell yesterday and changed my mind because system was still on a buy, but last night flipped to a sell. Another time when I should have gone with my gut feeling :confused:

[clester]

I started to sell yesterday and changed my mind because system was still on a buy, but last night flipped to a sell. Another time when I should have gone with my gut feeling :confused:
I'm a strong believer in following your gut. As long as its not a panic feeling or emotional. The trick is to know when that is. For example, emotionally I want to sell today. But logically, I have a good reference point to confirm that without losing too much money.

[jkenjohnson]

I'm a strong believer in following your gut. As long as its not a panic feeling or emotional. The trick is to know when that is. For example, emotionally I want to sell today. But logically, I have a good reference point to confirm that without losing too much money.

Is 650 for S your sell point?

[clester]

Is 650 for S your sell point?
No. Looks like about 642 to 640.

[jkenjohnson]

No. Looks like about 642 to 640.

Not going to hit that today.

[clester]

Not going to hit that today.
We may be talking about a different proxy for S fund. I was using $emw.

[jkenjohnson]

We may be talking about a different proxy for S fund. I was using $emw.


Yes I was using DWCPF.

[clester]

Wow, what a difference a day makes. I was ready to take a big hit and ended up with some green!

[nasa1974]

Wow, what a difference a day makes. I was ready to take a big hit and ended up with some green!

Here also. A complete opposite from yesterday.

[clester]

Here also. A complete opposite from yesterday.
I love it when a plan comes together. That's from a movie or something :)

My target is the 50 dma. Not much resistance til then.

[WhoDey]

I was hoping for a holiday boost this week and dipped my toe in the C and S pools (25% each ... remainder in F). I ended up in positive territory, but I didn't have the stomach for the strange way (at least to me) that the markets seem to be moving and made my exit. Strong open one day only to see the gains lost over the course of the day. Weak open the next only to see the indices recover by day's end.

If we are in a period of choppy action, how does one play the funds? I'm okay with a market trending either up or down, but this choppiness makes me feel like I'm taking a shot in the dark every time I make a move. And I've learned that I don't have the nerves for such gambles!

[ATCHUNTman]

I love it when a plan comes together. That's from a movie or something :)

My target is the 50 dma. Not much resistance til then.



:cool:

[clester]

I was hoping for a holiday boost this week and dipped my toe in the C and S pools (25% each ... remainder in F). I ended up in positive territory, but I didn't have the stomach for the strange way (at least to me) that the markets seem to be moving and made my exit. Strong open one day only to see the gains lost over the course of the day. Weak open the next only to see the indices recover by day's end.

If we are in a period of choppy action, how does one play the funds? I'm okay with a market trending either up or down, but this choppiness makes me feel like I'm taking a shot in the dark every time I make a move. And I've learned that I don't have the nerves for such gambles!
Well for me it depends on the situation. A big reason I went in this time was the RSI indicator. It rarely gets above 70 or below 30. But when it does it usually reverses. Also, I was waiting for a bounce first. I don't try to guess the bottom. One thing this does is give you a reference point. If we went below the bounce point I was out. You limit your losses this way if it doesn't work out.

[clester]

Actually, it looks like some resistance could come in at 678 or so on $EMW. Where the last couple of drops stopped.

[jkenjohnson]

Went 100% G today. Trying to cut my losses and get back in later.

[polarbear]

This is a completely discouraging day. An absolutely dismal day. The strength of the bears is totally there thanks to the Euro. An utterly sisyphean day. I have low expectations for the remaining hour of the day. Drat. Grrr!

[Birchtree]

Nah, it ain't so bad, really. The bottom is being made and the launch pad has firmed.

[clester]

This is a completely discouraging day. An absolutely dismal day. The strength of the bears is totally there thanks to the Euro. An utterly sisyphean day. I have low expectations for the remaining hour of the day. Drat. Grrr!
IMO, this anxiety is why we won't go lower. Sentiment is terrible. And this is the worst the bears can do?

[polarbear]

Thanks, guys. Yesterday was grueling, and today, after it, was a bear, it was enervating. I kinda expected a short covering at the end, but that vertical spike up was a surprise. (As of cob May 22, 100% S fund too, just like you, clester.) Thanks.

The proxy for the S Fund that I use is ^DWCPF, The Dow Completion Index.

[clester]

Thanks, guys. Yesterday was grueling, and today, after it, was a bear, it was enervating. I kinda expected a short covering at the end, but that vertical spike up was a surprise. (As of cob May 22, 100% S fund too, just like you, clester.) Thanks.

The proxy for the S Fund that I use is ^DWCPF, The Dow Completion Index.
Things could always turn south. That's why, IMHO, you should always pick an exit point and stick to it. A lot of folks refuse to sell and take a loss. My experience is that usually it usually gets worse and your psyche gets hit, as well as your retirement fund. Always have in mind a stop loss value where you will sell.

[clester]

Nice big rally today. My target is the 50 dma. I expect some resistance at 678 on $emw and then at 50 dma. The reaction at the 50 dma will dictate my next move. My gut is saying to get out by the end of the month which is Thursday.

[clester]

Nice big rally today. My target is the 50 dma. I expect some resistance at 678 on $emw and then at 50 dma. The reaction at the 50 dma will dictate my next move. My gut is saying to get out by the end of the month which is Thursday.
Found out I didn't follow through on tsp.gov to make transfer to S fund last week. So, to get my account here in line I will go 100% G fund today. We are getting close to resistance and my gut feeling says it may be time to get out anyway.

[clester]

Downturn looks to continue from here maybe test 200 dma again. My gut says we may bust it this time.

[clester]

Downturn looks to continue from here maybe test 200 dma again. My gut says we may bust it this time.
Looks like this is coming true. Unfortunately. The jobs data is disappointing. I have 2 kids who are getting out of college soon who need jobs. My oldest is going back to school for graduate school. Hope things get better by then.

Im looking for another bounce soon. The RSI for F fund is over 70 and the RSI for S fund is nearing the 30 level again. It may need to hit 20 first. That bodes well for a short term bounce. Although, with EU situation and our elections things will probably get worse. lets hope not.

[ATCHUNTman]

Hope for a bounce and soon! Thoughts on QE3 from the fed??

[clester]

Hope for a bounce and soon! Thoughts on QE3 from the fed??
I bet we will get something. Although, the economy is bad, I wonder if it is bad enough? QE hasn't helped much so far. It has helped the stock market though.

There is just so much going on right now. Europe, china slowing, and our elections with the so caled fiscal cliff coming.
Be careful and fasten your seat belt.

[clester]

I think we are still a day or 2 from a bounce. When we do bounce it will probably be like last time. Big pop for a few days.

Timing that will be tough with our delay in trading. I'm thinking mid June for a bottom with a bounce somewhere before then.

[nnuut]

I think we are still a day or 2 from a bounce. When we do bounce it will probably be like last time. Big pop for a few days.

Timing that will be tough with our delay in trading. I'm thinking mid June for a bottom with a bounce somewhere before then.
I agree but a tough one to time. I'm beginning to like the "F" more and more, thinking about the "G" when it starts bouncing back up that way I would be able to get back in if it continues up without taking the "F" losses on the way.

[ATCHUNTman]

Just sitting tight for now...congrats on your two years of freedom!!!

[clester]

Well, we have to be getting close to another bounce. Indicators suggest it. One problem is that so many people are also predicting it. They want to pick the bottom. That means, to me as a contrarian, that if we do bounce it may be short lived.

So, one could try to play a bounce for a couple of days. Problem there is timing it right and then being out of trades for the rest of the month.

Bottom line is that I don't think it's time to buy yet. It would be a gamble I think.

[Birchtree]

You just have to close your eyes, hold your nose and jump into the deep end.

[clester]

You just have to close your eyes, hold your nose and jump into the deep end.
I like to see where I'm going. :)

[clester]

So, here's the way I see it now. The s&p has now back tested the 200 dma and S fund is almost there. The extreme RSI readings have abated. Two gaps on AGG have been filled. The stage has been set for possibly another leg down.

So, we will know soon which way it will go. Maybe tomorrow. IHMO it may be another week or so to make a good bottom. I am ready to make a move soon I think. I hope into stocks, but I will be patient.

[clester]

That RSI signal was a buying op when it went below 30. But, now I have to wait on another signal.

One rule I have is to stay out of the market when you have s&p moves over 20 points up or down.

This appears to me to be a short covering rally. If so it will come back down.

Hard to see why any fund managers would be buying here with the headline risk. But they may know something we don't. They get insider info all the time.

My system indicators are still biased to staying out.

[clester]

That RSI signal was a buying op when it went below 30. But, now I have to wait on another signal.

One rule I have is to stay out of the market when you have s&p moves over 20 points up or down.

This appears to me to be a short covering rally. If so it will come back down.

Hard to see why any fund managers would be buying here with the headline risk. But they may know something we don't. They get insider info all the time.

My system indicators are still biased to staying out.
See, I knew the big guys knew something before the rest of us. China rate cut, Spain's bond auction....


Thats why you need to follow the charts.

So, I am looking at the May 29 high to be taken out to confirm a new uptrend. If if does I will look to buy.

[clester]

See, I knew the big guys knew something before the rest of us. China rate cut, Spain's bond auction....


Thats why you need to follow the charts.

So, I am looking at the May 29 high to be taken out to confirm a new uptrend. If if does I will look to buy.
The gaps on the AGG chart have been filled and now the EFA has two gaps. Efa is good at showing gaps and they usually get filled. This is a negative for stocks but it may take a while the fill those gaps.

[clester]

The gaps on the AGG chart have been filled and now the EFA has two gaps. Efa is good at showing gaps and they usually get filled. This is a negative for stocks but it may take a while the fill those gaps.
Also a little worried about how positive sentiment has gotten. All it took was a three day rally and we all feel good again.

Psychology is an interesting science. Human behavior is predictable but changes with the wind on a moments notice. At least mine does. It seems like we are all lemmings sometimes. Advertisers and politIcians know it. They can easily brainwash us if the show us the same commercial enough times. There is some number of times that it takes to convince us of something even if we know it's wrong.

I just wish could learn to think on our own and not be swayed by others. I think most folks have pretty good intuition but don't trust themselves.

Anyway. Enough of that. Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

[clester]

We had a reversal day June 4, which lead to our rally. Now we have another reversal day which means we may need to test the 1260-1280 level again. We do have a gap to fill on EFA lower.

[clester]

We had a reversal day June 4, which lead to our rally. Now we have another reversal day which means we may need to test the 1260-1280 level again. We do have a gap to fill on EFA lower.
Wow, I thought this statement would be wrong with the news over the weekend. I thought we may have a breakout and I would move into stocks. Now, maybe the test of 1280 will come true. I think things will be cautious ahead of the Greek vote this weekend. Glad to see the F fund recoup some of last weeks loss.

I think I will have a buy on for next week depending on the news out of Greece. It's all about the headlines now. The Fed, Europe, China...

Not the best time to be a TSP investor. Huge swings up and down means I will not make many moves.

[clester]

Very interesting day yesterday. Big drop at the end of the day. Today started up but is turning negative. It's shaping up to be a rough week. However, if our tracker is any indication, most people are already in bonds so any good news could spark a huge rally.

Problem is that the news out of Greece won't hit the market til Monday. If its a big sell off, it may be a good time to buy and if it's good news it may be a good time to buy. So, waiting and watching for Monday's action. Complicating things is Spain and now Italy bonds rates have jumped. All in all, I'm happy with F fund for now. I am surprised though that yields are up so far today.

[clester]

Just noticed most everyone today that made transfers went to bonds. The top 150 or so are mostly in bonds.

That should be a buy from the contrarian standpoint.

[clester]

Everything on the charts are basically in a neutral position including the indicators I use.

Sentiment is negative which makes me biased toward stocks. If the Fed quits buying bonds that is a negative for F fund.

I suppose a lot will ride on this weekend and Greece.

I will save my moves for next week. It should be a wild ride.

[clester]

I think today and tomorrow trades traders will be putting themselves in a flat position. Could be some short covering or a sell off depending on what they need to do to get even.

I am considering on going to G fund for the weekend because if things turn out good this weekend F fund could sell off.

In any case I would expect a lot of volatility.

[ILoveTDs]

I don't think things will turn out good this weekend, I see the I Fund losing 3% on Monday.

[clester]

I have a feeling Greece will turn out ok this weekend. The problem is that doesn't solve anything. It just take worst case off the table for now. So, if stocks pop it will be short lived I think.

Since I'm in th F fund, I should stay there or go to G fund and just play the reaction. In other words go the opposite way of the reaction. I think I will go to G fund and plan on making another trade Monday depending on reaction.

Then I can enjoy my weekend and just be a spectator. It will be entertaining. :)

[RealMoneyIssues]

I have a feeling Greece will turn out ok this weekend. The problem is that doesn't solve anything. It just take worst case off the table for now. So, if stocks pop it will be short lived I think.

Since I'm in th F fund, I should stay there or go to G fund and just play the reaction. In other words go the opposite way of the reaction. I think I will go to G fund and plan on making another trade Monday depending on reaction.

Then I can enjoy my weekend and just be a spectator. It will be entertaining. :)

Trading on my feelings hasn't worked for me so far this year, so I IFT'd to G last night for peace of mind :)

[clester]

The Greek election reaction and then reaction happened so fast that it's already over. Big pop overnight and now back to negative. The shorts will probably put their positions back on this week unless the Fed comes to the rescue.

In any case, F fund still looks like a good place to be for now. C fund broke the downtrend but doesn't look to hold it. S fund never broke out of its. Most indicators I use are neutral exept one and it's close to neutral.

[clester]

Looking for a pull back for a possible entry into stocks. C fund looks better than S fund right now. The biggest concern I have is the 2 gap ups on the Efa chart. It it good at showing gaps and they usually get filled. if we can get a pullback to fill at least one of those I would feel better. S and C are right at the 50 dma. A major resistance level. If we get above them for a couple days it would trigger a buy. For now still holding F and doing better than G fund would have but not by much. Maybe operation twist extension will help us out.

So, cautiously optimistic but waiting.

[ATCHUNTman]

I joined you in the F Fund Tuesday evening...looking good today. Hope for an entry back into C/S soon.

[clester]

I joined you in the F Fund Tuesday evening...looking good today. Hope for an entry back into C/S soon.
Good timing! The exact timing is hard for me. I'm usually early or late.

There is still a gap on the Efa chart that should be filled soon that is lower from here. S&P popped over the 200 dma and immediately went back under it. The S fund got right to it and fell. F fund is still,in uptrend. Indicators are mostly neutral.

I would love to see a test of the 1290 area on s and p to create a double bottom. On the other hand a couple days over the 200 dma would be nice.

Still stuck in neutral.

[ATCHUNTman]

Good timing! The exact timing is hard for me. I'm usually early or late.

There is still a gap on the Efa chart that should be filled soon that is lower from here. S&P popped over the 200 dma and immediately went back under it. The S fund got right to it and fell. F fund is still,in uptrend. Indicators are mostly neutral.

I would love to see a test of the 1290 area on s and p to create a double bottom. On the other hand a couple days over the 200 dma would be nice.

Still stuck in neutral.

Thanks for your posts, I look forward to reading what your thoughts on the market are!

[clester]

Thanks for your posts, I look forward to reading what your thoughts on the market are!
Just take them with a grain of salt. I'm no market genius. Just my own opinions from my experience.

But you know that. :)

One other point. Whenever there are huge moves (like more than 20 points on s and p) I get out of the market. It makes it too risky to guess the direction. Another reason to stay put for now.

[clester]

This morning I'm watching the EFA or I fund and $tran for clues on where the market is headed. Efa has a gap to fill (around 46.5 I think). S and p needs to hold the 1292 area. If that happens and Efa fills the gap I may dip my toes back in.

[WhoDey]

Those are the general targets I'm watching also for a possible entry into equities. I'm currently sitting at 50G/50F and have two IFTs burning a hole in my pocket. I'm trying to be disciplined and resist the urge to use an IFT the final week of June just because I don't want them to go to "waste". If the timing is right, I'll make a move ... if not, I'll just stay put.

[jkenjohnson]

For what it's worth, I am anticipating a buy signal tonight, I just sold my short positions (TZA) and bought long (TNA). I think the market is oversold now.

[clester]

For what it's worth, I am anticipating a buy signal tonight, I just sold my short positions (TZA) and bought long (TNA). I think the market is oversold now.
Just be careful buying on a big down day. It can turn into several more. Also, holding in a big downtrend waiting for a bounce can be expensive. I've done both and it's no fun. Have a price in mind to sell on the way down and stick to it!

My experience has been when there is a move over 20 points in S &P it's good to get out and let things settle down.
So, I expect to be in F for this week. Just remember how bad things got in 08. It could happen again. Fwiw, I would be cautious.

[clester]

Everything seems to be stuck in neutral. The market doesn't know what to do. Maybe we're building a bottom. I sense things are settling down even though we have had several days over 20 points up or down in s&p.

If we could bounce off a major level like the 200 dma or 1266-1292 range I would be more inclined to buy. But not yet.

[nnuut]

I think we will find out tomorrow when the Supreme Court rules on Obama Care.

[clester]

EFA still has a gap to fill about 46.5 which I expect to get filled soon. After that I will start looking at stocks.

[WhoDey]

I made a short in-and-out visit to the I fund this week (50% exposure). When I stretched the index out a few years, I could see several times where the index fell to about 46.5 and then rebounded. Although, we weren't at exactly that level, I thought it close enough given the fact that the EU would be meeting this week ... I thought the sentiment would be positive and provide a bounce. I exited COB today, however, because I don't have confidence in the multiple week trend.

That said ... I'm learning a lesson in "Fair Value" ... yesterday's +0.65% gain was a -0.24 TSP loss ... we'll see what today brings. I'm thinking that the I fund is not set up for quick entry/exits.

[JamesE]

I think we will find out tomorrow when the Supreme Court rules on Obama Care.

OK, so there'll be winners on both sides either way. My question is: which way, obummercare or no obummercare will make the markets rise? I'm inclined to think a repeal would let business owners breath a little easier, thus be free to hire more folks.