Market Talk

[Spaf]

A choppy market!
The market is being pulled in different directions, but trending downward in another yet bearish cycle. This cycle seems to be more volitile then the previous. In sentiment: oil prices are higher, closing Friday at $55.17, there is election uncertainity, and lackluster economic reports. Stats for the C, S, and I funds do not have longbuy signals within both the 20D MA and the P-SAR (I = ??). Indicators do not show a buy or break out trend. An example of uncertain/choppy conditions, using the S&P: Mon=Up, Tues=Dn, Wed=Up, Thur=Up, and Fri=Dn. The week started at 1114 and ended at 1096. See attached chart!
Current allocations holding at: 90% G, and 10% F.

Careful! ;) Spaf

[Spaf]

Cont'd
My bull bear meter: Bear 1060........^........1140 Bull is at 1096 or half way.
According to what I've read (Thanks LK! for the News Letter), 2005 may be a low gainer year. However a rally should be near for the end of 2004 (a definite maybe).

Feelings are that mutual fund managers shift to buying and cash flow increases after October 31. Thats a week away! The week of November 1st maybe good flying for a while.

Worth watching and worth talking about? :) Spaf

[Mike]

I'm up 0.6% this year, so you know how much (little) my advice is worth. :D

Of course, this percentage swings quite wildly with the market chop combined with my low balance, so I could go from looking like an idiot to looking like a genius in about two weeks' time in these cycles. :shock:

One of these days, I'll devise a system (aside from the current uttering of profanity every time the market cycles back down again). I think it'll involve a blindfold and copious amounts of alcohol each time I make a transfer.

[Spaf]

Mike - Any plan is better than no plan. You can always modify your plan later!
;)

[Mike]

How about this:

Upcoming transfers:

1st) Vodka
2nd) Rum
3rd) Schnapps

If any of the above fail to generate a profit, perhaps a mixture of the three is in order. Plus I could always sue the maker of the blindfold and the alcohol producers for bad market advice. :D

[ou81200]

Can anyone explain how the S fund went up today when the market was down. I was pleasantly surprised, but dumbfounded. Thanks

[smine]

Yeah that's why I almost quit looking at the yahoo chart! I just figured I had not mastered the art of chart viewing and stocks rising/lowering!!! I was getting confused....so I just leave it in C, S, I and sometimes G.

[tsptalk]

ou81200 wrote:
Can anyone explain how the S fund went up today when the market was down. I was pleasantly surprised, but dumbfounded. Thanks
Small caps did well today. I think a few small company earnings reports came out today.

[Spaf]

OU - The index for the Wilshire 4500 closed slightly up. Some items of the market were up, some down.

From October 1st to today (Oct. 25) the share prices for TSP funds have been:
G = +0.03, F = +0.13, C = -0.38, S = -0.25, I = +0.06

Since late September through October, the C,S,I funds have been giving fluctuating readings within the parabolic SAR signals, due to market volitility to otherwise notindicate a clear buy or sell. However, in looking at the big picture (using S&P) the current market is in a downward cycle, and the market since Feburary continues to be bearish.Where this current cycle will break is now the big question for timing.

Any opinions???

[ou81200]

I'm not a stock guru, but I'll give my opinion.



The bearish cycle we're currently in is founded on three things.

1. Oil prices

2. Coming elections

3. This weeks earning reports.

As for oil prices, the price has been going up for a while now so this may have allready been factored in share prices. Even with the price of oil over 54 Dollars a barrel, transportation, homebuilding, and utilities showed relative strength (MSN Money).

Coming Elections----Late last week, CNN showed Bush and Kerry at 48% each. I'm sure that has changed by now, but it's still close. this uncertainty is reflected with the way the market is going. I believe after the elections, the short term will be favorable for the C and S fund.

This weeks earnings. Well this weeks earnings-----Well they STUNK!!! Nuff said on that.

Well that's it on my opinion :).

[tsptalk]

Well I can't argue with any of that. The good news, I believe, is that the market is hanging tough despite of all of this bad news. I have been pounding the bullish table for several months now with not much movement either way actually. The bears can't be happy (we're up 3% from the lows) and the bulls are getting frustrated (down 4% from recent highs). We are still consolidating. Short termers might play the chop, longer termers have to pick a side. I'm still bullish looking forward. :)

[Mike]

3rd quarter earnings were mostly pretty good. What's weighing on the market is the projected earnings for the 4th quarter - many companies are revising these downward.

Oil prices and the upcoming election are certainly hurting us at the moment.

[learning]

I was not expecting the oil to do as it has. This has me worried. When the oil comes down or looks like it, I may put more into theS fund. That seems to make the big up moves while not taking some of the biggest hits.

The Election will help bring order to the market when it is over. As long as they do not fight again over who won.

As for me, in this market I feel like a rabit running scarred in the center of a pack of wolves:end:.

Looking forward to the Santa Clause Ralley:^

[tsptalk]

ou81200 wrote:
Can anyone explain how the S fund went up today when the market was down. I was pleasantly surprised, but dumbfounded. Thanks
Large caps are getting their revenge today so far.

[puertorico]

commonnnn giveme the Gre e e e e e n :^

ou81200 wrote:
I'm not a stock guru, but I'll give my opinion.



The bearish cycle we're currently in is founded on three things.

1. Oil prices

2. Coming elections

3. This weeks earning reports.

As for oil prices, the price has been going up for a while now so this may have allready been factored in share prices. Even with the price of oil over 54 Dollars a barrel, transportation, homebuilding, and utilities showed relative strength (MSN Money).

Coming Elections----Late last week, CNN showed Bush and Kerry at 48% each. I'm sure that has changed by now, but it's still close. this uncertainty is reflected with the way the market is going. I believe after the elections, the short term will be favorable for the C and S fund.

This weeks earnings. Well this weeks earnings-----Well they STUNK!!! Nuff said on that.

Well that's it on my opinion :).
Hmmmm, guess we all now how "liberal" CNN is right?..............

[ou81200]

Tom---

I think your rally came a day early :!.

[Dakota]

curently 25g25f 25c 25s as of wednesday 25g 25c 50s I is too scary right now. will be watching good luck ya'll

[Spaf]

Tuesday the 26th. A rally from the insurance stock :). My stats could change positive, if the rally keeps the upswing. Tom's seasonality chart indicates that Thursday, Friday and Monday to be good days in the market. Sentiment amoung members appears to be good. I guess it's time I changed my allocation effective COB Wednesday: Will go 10% G, 10% F, 40% C, and 40% S, pending a favorable AM market, otherwise I'll cancel. Drat that 1 day delay.

Attached is the S&P chart as of the 26th. Note the possible turn around of 20D MA and P-SAR. This is like chasing a possum up a tree, sometimes you have to go for it. I guess by 10:30 AMtomorrow I'll know if it is a possum or a bear up that tree :u!

Be careful!

[tsptalk]

ou81200 wrote:
Tom---

I think your rally came a day early :!.

And it was large caps as they didmake the attempt to catch up to the small caps. As I mentioned in Monday's comments, I thought about making the change to the C fund, but didn't pull the trigger. Nice volume too.

[ou81200]

Any green day is a good day.

[Spaf]

S&PInformation at Yahoo
The 3 mo tech chart at yahoo is stuck on October 19 using symbol ^GSPC. However the same index can be brought up using symbol ^SPX and that tech chart is current.

[Mike]

I don't look quite as stupid for having 50% in C now. Hooray! :P

[Spaf]

Mike - :^good for you!

[Rod]

OK, we BEST go ahead and bank yesterday's and today's gainsin the G FUND now while we still have time.;)

[smine]

Agreed. That's your new plan anyhow, Rod, 100G.

[puertorico]

I'M FOLLOWING U rOd :^

I heard u smine :cool:



100-G DONE ...:D

I'm staying put....15% C-75% S...want this dog to perform for daddy.

[smine]

Everytime I do that I kick myself when it drops! So, I promised myself if it went up big time (and it seems to be doing just that today) I was gonna move to safety! One hr 49 minutes to go.....up, up and away, then to G. Rod may have hit on a plan that I can live with.

[ou81200]

Something said for me to do the same. I think I will say in the S fund one more day :?.

I will probably kick myself in the rump for this.

[Rod]

On average when there are 2 great days in a row, the 3rd is usually a downer... especially when that 3rd day falls on a Thursday. I'm not saying this is always, but I'm not taking any chances. Besides, I need to stick with my system UNLESS I have avery good reason to deviate.

God Bless:^

[Spaf]

We have had 2 good up days......... and check your oil. Down <$53. This could be the change into a bull market period for the months ahead (fingers crossed). I know that Tom has been looking for it since July. Right now we don't have enough facts. What we are looking for is this:


In the first stage of a bull market, stocks begin to find a bottom and quietly firm up. When the market starts to rise, there is widespread disbelief that a bull market has begun. After the first leg peaks and starts to head back down, the bears come out proclaiming that the bear market is not over. It is at this stage that careful analysis is warranted to determine if the decline is a secondary movement (a correction of the first leg up). If it is a secondary move, then the low forms above the previous low, a quiet period will ensue as the market firms and then an advance will begin. When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed.


I am tired of these rally cycles in the bear market, I want the other market back!

[Rod]

Well, if there's going to be a prolonged rally I don't see it happening until after the election.

[coolhand]

It would seem oil really is driving this market. All it took was for inventory levels to come in above analyst expectations and the market took off. Opec's comments that the US should release some of its reserves was rather interesting. They have been saying they would increase production to alleviate the high price, but this comment seems to indicate they may not have the capacity to do so. Maybe that's one of the reasons the bond market has been so strong. They don't believe it.

At this point, we'll just have to keep an eye on oil and see if it really is the beginning of a trend to the downside. I'm not holding my breath just yet.

Lots of pent up frustration being released. The election next week should help.

Currently 65% G, 35% C and waiting to make a move.
:cool:

[Spaf]

Coolhand - What you are saying is my point of consideration. August lower low was at 1060. The October higher low was at 1090. If oil ceases to be a "market problem" this may (I say may) be the start of a bull market. If it fits the requirements of the Dow Theory I stated previously. Bears have rallys, Bulls have corrections. I don't want it to be a rally, I want the real thing. I want the beef!

[coolhand]

I agree with you completely...just wanted to add somemore perspective. If oil ceases to be a concern, companies can expect to realize more profit as they are not being saddled with increased energy costs. The bulls will take off.For the most part I think the US economy is weathering this problem well (short term anyway). However, if oil continues to be a problem over the long haul, it will affectsome of the more fragile economies around the globe first. That will have a ripple effect. I have been watching for any signs of instability in these markets, but it doesn't appear to have taken too much of a toll as yet.

Also, watch the bond market. When those gurusstart to believe financial conditions favorequitiesthere will be a stampede. So far, they are acting contrary tothe conditions of the market. There's an awful lot of money sitting on the sidelines (bonds, money markets, under mattresses). The trick is getting in before they do. I expect to make a move any day now, but I have a waryeye on oil in particular.

You're right about wanting the old market back. This one is a lot of work (guess work).

[Spaf]

The bearish rally's are taking the toll on me. There is no reason for not having a bull market if the oil problem can't be solved. I am tired of chasing these bearish rally's! There is nothing wrong with with the economy thet removing the oil factor would not produce a bull market. My opinion!
Current Allocations: G=10%. F=10%. C=40%, S=40%, I=0%.

careful! :) Spaf

[Mike]

It's late at night, and once again I'm posting after a big up day. :^

2004 highs: $12.15 C fund, $13.51 S fund,$13.85 I fund.

Recent "minor" highs (Oct 6th): C $12.12, S $13.31

Today's prices: $11.95 (C), $13.24 (S), $13.85 (I).

We're one more up day away from the point where we really need to get excited. :cool:

[TheProphet]

I am on the black... in green territory... I will move to 100% G Fund for the weekend prior to election (terrorist attack over the weekend isalways a possibility)...election day, interest rate increase... winter oil prices etc... too smokey...I belief the market is on BULLISH trend... but I rather stay on 100% G Fundfor few days see results and way for clear air...too smoky now...need more clear air...

[Spaf]

I feel that this AM and maybe today is the quiet period where the market firms up.
A maybe, cus I haven't played The Dow Theory out before.

But, my Bear/Bull meter is in a good range at 1125.

|-----------------Bears 1060.............^...1140 Bulls---------------|

Oil is under $52. and China may have less demands if their interest rates go up.
Maybe the bear market is out, maybe! Still need more factors to fall in place. But here's hoping!

[smine]

and Spaf, all that means what? did you move, stay, change anything?

[Spaf]

Smine - My allocations are holding at G=10, F=10, C=40, S=40. I'm just happy that oil is going down to somewhere below the roof. Nov. Dec. Jan. should be good months. I'm really tired of this choppy, cyclic bearish season we have been in. We had a higher low. Now we need for the market to firm up, and start being a bull. If oil will just step aside. Sometimes what I want and what I get are two different things. I'v got my fingers crossed for good times! They just have to happen!

Spaf wrote:
I feel that this AM and maybe today is the quiet period where the market firms up.
A maybe, cus I haven't played The Dow Theory out before.

But, my Bear/Bull meter is in a good range at 1125.

|-----------------Bears 1060.............^...1140 Bulls---------------|

Oil is under $52. and China may have less demands if their interest rates go up.
Maybe the bear market is out, maybe! Still need more factors to fall in place. But here's hoping!

Good point about China and the oil demands Spaf :^. I didn't even think about that...:'

Good point about China and the oil demands Spaf :^. I didn't even think about that...:'

Polly wanna cracker!!! RRRRRRRAH!



I'm following your animal theme.

tsptakedown wrote:
Good point about China and the oil demands Spaf :^. I didn't even think about that...:'

Polly wanna cracker!!! RRRRRRRAH!



I'm following your animal theme.





Isn't it great to have fans? Childish fan, but hey, still a fan..............:shock:

Raise your hand if you think it's MarketTimer...I really doubt I''m good enough to have TWO fans!

*raising hand*

mlk_man wrote:
tsptakedown wrote:
Good point about China and the oil demands Spaf :^. I didn't even think about that...:'

Polly wanna cracker!!! RRRRRRRAH!



I'm following your animal theme.





Isn't it great to have fans? Childish fan, but hey, still a fan..............:shock:

Raise your hand if you think it's MarketTimer...I really doubt I''m good enough to have TWO fans!

*raising hand*

Sorry everyone, from now on I will try to "reply" to MT or TTP or Harley or whatever he chooses to call himself in my own account. I think it's rude to post personal attacks in someone else's tread.

Why not do the same TTD. Be "nice" for a change......................

I'm thinking of possibly moving a little off the table for the weekend. Currently still

15%-G, 10%-C, 75%-S. this dog is still perfoming good tricks (but for how long), today still looks, hope this plays out until the end.

[Dakota]

today the dog bit the s fund was not pretty I will be 33c 34s 33i good luck ya'll

[ou81200]

I pulled out of the S fund today before noon and went 100% G. I think I will stay there untill after the election. There's too much uncertainty going on for me.:*



Any inputs???

[coolhand]

Even the analysts are divided on what may happen in this market. In my opinion it's never a bad call to take your chips off the table while you are ahead and uncertainty reigns. GDP numbers out tomorrow. If they exceed expectations the bulls may take off again. Oil on the other hand is still unpredictable. With China trying to cool off their market some analysts think it may serve to lower oil consumption down the road. Tough call.

I am 65% G and 35% C and can't pull the trigger. I too am waiting for the elections.

[Mike]

China's economy has been growing at a whopping 9%. That is an unsustainable growth rate. Inflation and/or speculation will begin to take hold (if they haven't already), and that'll serve to naturally put the brakes on that economy.

S-fund only dropped 2 cents today, which was offset by the C going up 2 cents. I-fund shot up 10 cents and is now pushing $14 - makes me wish I kept my 1/3 allocation over there longer. :shock:

[Spaf]

I've attached a chart of the S&P 500 for one year.

It appears that we are in the critical period of possibly breaking the bearish trend of 2004. Note ? gap on chart, if the market can continue the advance through 1050-1060 we should have a bull market, a big if! It may not have the strength of the 2003-4 market. However, it will be an improvement. If certain factors (oil, reports, etc.) will give some slack, we could have some good market weather.


The possibles are there. Will the market do it, that's the question. I hope it will!

Careful! :) Spaf

[FundSurfer]

I did the same took refuge in G as of yesterday. S is up 2.2% since Monday and C is up 3%. I can't help but think there will be some profit taking and there is the uncertainty of the upcomming elections plus you got the insurgents in Iraq likely to try to make a statement before our elections....

Sitting on the sidelines seems like the better choice. I see more risk in the market right now.

[Spaf]

FundSurfer- You could be right. The market had a direction, but is now mulling over mixed data. I will be transfer to a more conservative holdingthis AM at 50%G, 20%C, 20%S, 10%I The 20D MA and P-SAR are a buy, so I will stay in some stocks.

[coolhand]

My feelings exactly. I'm thinkingofmoving30% of my G fund holdings ($5K) into the "C" fund on the chance the market maymove higher after the elections. I'll decide on Monday morning. That's as much risk as I'm willing to take. Let you know Monday whether I did or not.

[learning]

I am thinking about uping my S fund on the day ofthe election. That is if nothing by 11:00 hours goes wrong. By the end of November I want to be at least 50% - 100% S fund. I believe we will have a Santa Clause Rally. That is if the terrorist do not hit us or oil goes through the roof.

[Spaf]

Thursday and Friday may have been the quiet period for the market to firm up. It could be set to advance next week. If it advances through the previous peak of 1142.05 of Oct. 5, then a bull market could be confirmed. 1142 might not be the exact number, but it should be between 1142-1163; remembering the past bull market of 2003-4peaked out at 1163.23.
Conversely, if the market, for reasons, cannot advance past 1142, then we will have to wait for a new day.
If the bull market is established, then is the period of the longest and largest advances in prices.
On Friday the 29th.the S&P 500 closed at 1130.20, we have12 or more points to go before we can say the bull market is back. So close, and yet so far. Hopefully the market will get there and advance upward. In the mean time I will remain conservatively optimisticwith allocations at G:50, F:0, C:20, S:20, I:10.

Price/share wise the TSP funds closed out for October as:

1-29 Oct: G=+.04 F=+.12 C=0 S=+.04 I=+.35

Rgrds and be careful! :) Spaf

[Mike]

Next week's action: up, up, and away! :D

This could be the biggest money-making move of my life, or it could be another in a growing line of flubs. Stay tuned. :^

[Spaf]

Mike - Kind of covering all the bases arn't ya :l!

[Mike]

What I meant to say was:

The market will either go up, up, and away...

OR

My money will simply go away.

:D

[Pete1]

Careful, folks. After the last really tight presidential election in 2000,the major domesticindices were down about 6% in the days immediatelyfollowingthe election. If this one ends up being tight and we don't know who the president is for awhile, we may see a repeat. Just something to think about. Not suggesting that you abandon your plans butbe prepared just in case. :)

[learning]

Pete1 wrote:
Careful, folks. After the last really tight presidential election in 2000,the major domesticindices were down about 6% in the days immediatelyfollowingthe election. If this one ends up being tight and we don't know who the president is for awhile, we may see a repeat. Just something to think about. Not suggesting that you abandon your plans butbe prepared just in case. :)


No, I had forgot. Thanks for the heads up. All that was in my little mind was the election would be one less concern in the market. It would be over and ready to go up. I will have to reavaluate my situation. Thanks again for the heads up. That is why I LOVE THIS SIGHT! People bring out ideas I missed.:'

[Spaf]

I think we all have a reason for concern. There is a lot of "ifs" remaining to be resolved: Election, oil, market advance, reports, etc. Thats my reason for playing it light right now. My stats still say long, but I am not playing with any 100%. I feel somewhat conservative till I get a clearer picture.

[learning]

Well I was reading the San Deigo Trib at, signonatsandiego.com,(I believe that is where I found it. They said in the business section that the sells of adult stuff for Halloween is up. This seems to me to be a good indication that where headed towards a Good Christmas sells season. I really want the Santa Clause Rally, It was nice to me last year. I want more let the bulls run, Please. Crossing fingers and watching only. Will hold to see what election looks lke. Thanks again.

:oo

[coolhand]

As if we don't have enough to think about, Osama weighs in after over a year. So far it seems like the market is taking it in stride, but the market was closed when the news hit, although futures were little changed.

Pete1 - thanks for the reminder. :^This election is not only as close as 2000 (or so it appears), but unlike that election year an awful lot oflawyers have been called in already.I would bet that unless this election is won by a decidedly largemargin (don't think that willl be the case)they are going tochallenge the outcome.An awful lot of emotion in this election. I'm inclined to think it does call for a conservative position in equities until the outcome is clear and emotions have had a chance to settle.

Perhaps the citizens of San Diego have found an outlet for all their fears which seem pervasive these days.

[Show-me]

I heard on theradio thatthe democraticparty has plans to haveat leasttwo corporate jet fully fueled, on standby, with lawyer's ready to go to any state that there is a close or contestable race. I can't remember if it was on news radio or talk radio.

[Rod]

You can bet I won't be in stocks on election day!;)

[tsptalk]

OK, I'll play devil's advocate and say that everyone who wants to bail for the election, knowing what happened in 2000, has bailed already. And you know what happens when everyone is bearish? ;)

More of a hope than a prediction.

If I had to make a prediction (which isn't worth very much) I'd guess the market will do the opposite. That is, rise in the face of all this, then take a breather later in the week after it sucks in those bears who were on the sidelines missing the boat.

Remember, ifwe have a decisive winner Tuesday (big if), we could have a big gap up relief rally Wednesday.

[Rod]

tsptalk wrote:
OK, I'll play devil's advocate and say that everyone who wants to bail for the election, knowing what happened in 2000, has bailed already. And you know what happens when everyone is bearish? ;)

More of a hope than a prediction.

If I had to make a prediction (which isn't worth very much) I'd guess the market will do the opposite. That is, rise in the face of all this, then take a breather later in the week after it sucks in those bears who were on the sidelines missing the boat.

Remember, ifwe have a decisive winner for Wednesday morning, we could have a big gap up relief rally.
If it does, great for you. But I'd rather be safe than sorry. There's just too much uncertainty that I don't want any part in.

[Spaf]

Tom - What I see is a crossroads looming. The market hit the lower low, firmed up and established a higher low, Last Thursday and Friday it firmed up again and is 12 points from the previous high. If it advances through 1142 (1142-1163 maybe)we could have our bull market back. Three choices, advance, volatile, or decline. I see it ready to advance. As always there are certain factors could prevent the advance. Therefore, I've lightenen stocks to 50% and will ready a transfer eather way for the AM. Hopefully, the bull will reapear!

[Mike]

Spaf, you just made me think of the group Bone Thugs n' Harmony ("the crossroads"). :D