F Fund where will it go ?

[Braveheart]

I was in the F Fund and switched to the G Fund hoping for the 1 Cent Payday. Following the charts F Fund peaked at $12.23 then fell off and I thought it was going to pay more than 3 Cents yesterday to $12.18 with the markets going crazy I just unloaded to 100 % G Fund. Might be a bad move but nothing to worry about now. :nuts::nuts::nuts:

Does anyone have any predictions for the F Fund in the future or did I get out in time before it drops off?

[Fivetears]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=148060&postcount=794

[Brett]

I’m no expert, but I have been around long enough to remember when the F-fund was pretty hot when the interest rates were making a steady drop several years back. That said, I have put half my money in each of G and F. I expect the F fund to go up a little more, but the FED is just about out of “bullets”. At that point I will be getting out, perhaps going 100% G. Just my 2¢.

[weatherweenie]

AGG -0.23% so far today.

[Fivetears]

AGG not a good gauge.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=145102&postcount=429

[airlift]

Vanguard`s VBMFX is good, but only as to end-of-day data.

[Braveheart]

Well the F Fund took a hit today. Something to keep a close watch on now. Down to $12.10 today.

[smine]

Well the F Fund took a hit today. Something to keep a close watch on now. Down to $12.10 today.

Foolishly jumped in 50% at $12.16. Now want out; any idea what it will close at tonight?

[nnuut]

Foolishly jumped in 50% at $12.16. Now want out; any idea what it will close at tonight?
Right now I get a little over +2 cents.:D

[smine]

Right now I get a little over +2 cents.:D
Have 10 minutes to "think."
Out/Stay that's the question! LOL.

[poolman]

O.K. I'm finally trying to figure this out. Yes it takes homework and No it's not easy.

I'm using 350Z formula.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=145102&postcount=429


I think you have to first take the open price and subtract the current or last price everytime you try to work your estimate for the $TNX and the $TYX then work the number's the way 350Z show's.

I came up with currently

.0172 or a +.02 on the F - Fund.

[350zCommTech]

O.K. I'm finally trying to figure this out. Yes it takes homework and No it's not easy.

I'm using 350Z formula.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=145102&postcount=429


I think you have to first take the open price and subtract the current or last price everytime you try to work your estimate for the $TNX and the $TYX then work the number's the way 350Z show's.

I came up with currently

.0172 or a +.02 on the F - Fund.

If you use Stockcharts.com, you don't have to do that. Just use the change in yields.

I have the F fund up 3 cents at the moment.

[poolman]

O.K. Bear with me please. Checking. If I get this right I'll post it more.

Thanks. be back.

[poolman]

If you use Stockcharts.com, you don't have to do that. Just use the change in yields.

I have the F fund up 3 cents at the moment.


O.K. By using the change field in both tnx and tyx I got

-(-.065 + -0.46) * .25 = .02775 or 3 cent's.

Am I correct 350Z ?

[350zCommTech]

O.K. By using the change field in both tnx and tyx I got

-(-.065 + -0.46) * .25 = .02775 or 3 cent's.

Am I correct 350Z ?

Perfect!:)

[poolman]

Perfect!:)


Thank You very much 350Z... :D

I'm making notes currently and will help post this number. Remember people I've got three more weeks vacation and I'm not going to be around during the day.

You people that want to know F - Fund estimates need to figure it out too. :)

I'm not even going to try the I - Fund now.

Thanks Again, 350Z :)

[poolman]

Update:

(-.86 + -.64) / 10 * .25 = .0375 or up 4 cents.

[poolman]

.03575 = .4 cent's on F - Fund today.

[logdoc]

I was in the F Fund and switched to the G Fund hoping for the 1 Cent Payday. Following the charts F Fund peaked at $12.23 then fell off and I thought it was going to pay more than 3 Cents yesterday to $12.18 with the markets going crazy I just unloaded to 100 % G Fund. Might be a bad move but nothing to worry about now. :nuts::nuts::nuts:

Does anyone have any predictions for the F Fund in the future or did I get out in time before it drops off?

Predictions are tough but look back at the F fund during the period of 2000-2002, and then again 1990-1993 during recessions and when the Fed was cutting interest rates and the F fund did very well, often greater than what you'd anticipate would the C fund will this year. So if you think that the Fed may cut rates again and we are in a recession tipping point, and you have some patience and are willing to take a little risk, then I'm anticipating that the F fund will do ok this year (some thing in the range of 5-7%) which will be better than the G fund which may not out pace inflation.
At least that is my bet.

[poolman]

.03575 = .4 cent's on F - Fund today.


O.K.

Then how my calculation was off by .01 cent. I will research this in coming day's to figure out what is going on.

Sorry. I said f - fund was up .04 cent's but came out at .03 cent's. ;)

[350zCommTech]

O.K.

Then how my calculation was off by .01 cent. I will research this in coming day's to figure out what is going on.

Sorry. I said f - fund was up .04 cent's but came out at .03 cent's. ;)


.03574 is barely 4 cents. Yesterday's loss might have been -6.3 or so cents. Keeping a running tap of the F fund price, up to 4 or 5 digits, will make your calculation very accurate. That was what I used to do with the I fund price. I had the I fund price up to 8 decimals. That was why I was able to consistantly nail the price right to the penny. Oops..there goes another secret...:D

Now you know why I tend to blow my valves once in a while...:)

[poolman]

.03574 is barely 4 cents. Yesterday's loss might have been -6.3 or so cents. Keeping a running tap of the F fund price, up to 4 or 5 digits, will make your calculation very accurate. That was what I used to do with the I fund price. I had the I fund price up to 8 decimals. That was why I was able to consistantly nail the price right to the penny. Oops..there goes another secret...:D

Now you know why I tend to blow my valves once in a while...:)

Yes I do.. I see what your saying. I need a calculator with more integer's. I'm going to get one at staples tomorrow. Thanks 350Z... I do appreciate it..

Poolman

[350zCommTech]

Yes I do.. I see what your saying. I need a calculator with more integer's. I'm going to get one at staples tomorrow. Thanks 350Z... I do appreciate it..

Poolman

You're welcome poolman,

Actually, if you have Excel or any spreadsheet, it will be a lot easier. It will allow you to easily keep adding to the price day after day. And also, adjustments to the price can be done very quickly.

[poolman]

-.04 on the F - Fund

[poolman]

-.05 on the F - Fund

[poolman]

-.03 on the F - Fund

[poolman]

.00 on the F - Fund

Flat

[poolman]

- .02 on the F - Fund

[nnuut]

- .02 on the F - Fund
GREAT DAY, their PENNYing me to death!:nuts::cool:

[ATCJeff]

F fund will be below 12 in two weeks.

[Braveheart]

Wow - you talk about getting out in time. I was reading what others were writing and following the charts and found a trend that just when it looks like the F Fund is about to take off it turns. I was in it because the G Fund wasn't paying then would switch back to the G Fund for the 1 cent payday and it worked out well. Right now it is a bad fund that is suddenly high risk.

[poolman]

- .04 on the F - Fund

[poolman]

- .06 or -.07 on the F - Fund

[Braveheart]

After reading the reports and looking at what some have said here and others I know this could be the fund that moves higher.

I believe it may (more than likely) hit well below $12.00 to $11.50 range JMO in this market then turn around.

[poolman]

- .02 on the F - Fund

[Gunny]

After reading the reports and looking at what some have said here and others I know this could be the fund that moves higher.

I believe it may (more than likely) hit well below $12.00 to $11.50 range JMO in this market then turn around.

Yeah, I had the same hunch watching it go up as the rest of the market continued to fall. If the markets are near or at the bottom now the F is probably the wrong place to be. Also as 350 stated you have to be weary of the AAA ratings not being met as easily as previously.

[Braveheart]

Yeah, I had the same hunch watching it go up as the rest of the market continued to fall. If the markets are near or at the bottom now the F is probably the wrong place to be. Also as 350 stated you have to be weary of the AAA ratings not being met as easily as previously.

It was a smart play to stay in the G Fund but looking at the F Fund for Friday after the smoke clears tomorrow. Still a huge risk and could drop more.

[tsptalk]

F fund will be below 12 in two weeks.
Only took 6 days. Nice call. :)

[logdoc]

So I am wondering if anyone's crystal ball is operating at all. I recall the 70's (stagflation)and in the end of that decade inflation and interest rates were in double digits. I recall getting a 8.5% COLA in Carter's last year in office but I also bought a house in 1981 and had to pay 14 5/8% interest on a loan to get into that house.
There was no F fund at that time....so what will the F fund be doing under those circumstances, that is, with high interest rates. Will the F fund rise. Or will it tank. Does the value of F fund shares only rise in declining interest rate environments?
Do we all run and hide in the G fund? Or so we take our 5% match and look for other places for our money?

[tsptalk]

Hi logdoc -
This is from my 2/25/08 commentary...


Bonds (the AGG) remain in an uptrend as the Fed continues its rate cutting mission. The recent inflationary data would have us believe that rates may have to stabilize at best here, and possibly move higher (which would cause bonds and the F-fund to move lower), but the slow down in the economy and the credit crisis makes this a tough call for the Fed. They indicated that they will remain aggressive cutting rates for now, but may have to shoot them back up quickly once the economy appears back on track.

Inflation is a concern but certainly not out of control like the 70's. The Fed is aggressively cutting rates so I wouldn't abandon the F entirely until the chart breaks down. The AGG is down today but the low made last week is hanging on for now. If that breaks on a closing basis, I'd be more willing to switch back to the G fund. For now, we could be at the bottom of an asending trading channel for the F fund.

[Braveheart]

OK right now the F Fund looks good. Any advice for next week on the F Fund. It was up 7 cents today I thought it would be 9 but any thoughts would be appreciated. :)

[Show-me]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p03515914213

If the markets retest their lows the F should retest its highs.

[Braveheart]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p03515914213

If the markets retest their lows the F should retest its highs.

Thanks for the information and the link - Braveheart ;)

[clester]

Has the F gone up too fast? Is it too late to get in next week?

[Braveheart]

Has the F gone up too fast? Is it too late to get in next week?

Read 350z posts about the F Fund. After I read them and others you have to conclude it's a good play and it's not too late. I would rather chip away 5 cents here and there then get hammered because one Ambac rumor report caused a fake market and a 200 point swing last week. That changed the market in a bad way.

It gave people hope for a turnaround but it was only a matter of time Wednesday when the market saw it was overpriced on a rumor. Yesterday down 100+ and then today 300+. If you can't trust the market and all the news is bad day after day the Bonds and the F Fund will be OK. But again see 350Z's posts, charts etc. every bit of information is vital today.

[ou81200]

Does anyone think there may be a dead cat bounce on Monday???

[Tomncath]

Z makes a real strong case for the TNX/MACD. I just ran the figures and being in the F fund 10/15 -> 12/5 and 12/25 -> 1/30 and otherwise being in the G fund would have returned 6.25% since 10/15. I don't know about the the rest of you but I moved out of the F Fund at the begining of the year to take advantage of strong seasonality and received a real spanking (-3.5%), finally getting out 1/10. Been sitting on the sidelines since then trying to figure out this crazy market. Unless some news comes out Monday morning to make me change my mind I'll take the G penny Monday and move to the F fund.

[poolman]

Does anyone think there may be a dead cat bounce on Monday???


I would say No to a Dead Cat Bounce on Monday.

UNLESS CNBC has some breaking Good news. This can happen at any time and has over the last couple of weeks.

IMHO, I think the Market is and has been on Stilt's coming from the FOMC and Congress. I.E. Stimulus Package.

Anything can happen. We could a get a surprise Rate Cut at any time.

A Major Bank could Fold. Look at the Dollar, It's Pathetic... Oil at all time High's.

Hell I need another fill on the 550 Gallon Oil Tank Soon. I'll bet it will cost me $1350.00 :worried::(

Making a Play on the Market's right now is down right Gambling.

Do I do it ? Yes.... But in very little Amount's...

[Braveheart]

Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at community bankers' conference in FL (9:00 AM ET) every time he opens his mouth the market takes a beating if not that day then the next 2 days.


Tuesday, March 4:

Earnings (http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/Calendars/EarningsCalendar.htm): Clearwire (CLWR), Jackson Hewitt (JTX), Staples (SPLS), Tech Data (TECD), Chico's FAS (CHS), Heelys (HLYS)
Economic Data (http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm): February Auto and Truck Sales
Events: Encore Acquisition Company Analyst Meeting; Jarden Corp. Analyst Meeting; Arris Analyst Meeting, and; RTI Biologics Analyst Dinner
Conferences: Bear Stearns Retail & Consumer Conference; Citigroup Global Property Conference; Citigroup Industrial Manufacturing Conference; Credit Suisse Opportunities Conference; Merrill Lynch Geneva Global Auto Conference; Morgan Stanley Tech Conference; Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference; Susquehanna Investment Options in Healthcare Conference
Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at community bankers' conference in FL (9:00 AM ET); Fed Governor Mishkin speaks to economists in VA (12:15 PM ET); Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks in London regarding inflation and growth (14:00 PM ET)

[Hallatauer]

Problem is, 20 years ago, if the Fed Chairman spoke, it got an article on page 3 of the Wall St Journal. Today it's live on CNBC and every day trader goes on some panicky hippity hop dance, institutional traders get nervous, they all start selling, but not for any valid reason. It just creates a lot of volatility... it's not investing.

[Silverbird]

Problem is, 20 years ago, if the Fed Chairman spoke, it got an article on page 3 of the Wall St Journal. Today it's live on CNBC and every day trader goes on some panicky hippity hop dance, institutional traders get nervous, they all start selling, but not for any valid reason. It just creates a lot of volatility... it's not investing.My personal opinion is they want a quick, wash and wear answer from Berneke. They do not want to hear things like, the mortgage companies need to do this and that. But when Paulson or Bush say the economy is fine, the market tanks too. They want the truth...and they don't.:notrust:

[clester]

Looks like the $TNX has filled the gap. It could be a good time to buy in. Anyone have an opinion?

[clester]

Does anyone have an estimate? It appears we bounced off the bottom of the trend line (using AGG) and are heading back up.
Vectorman, give me some charts!

[nnuut]

I think up about $.03 today!

[Silverbird]

:nuts: Up! We said Up!! Squawk!

[nnuut]

:nuts: Up! We said Up!! Squawk!
TNX = -.71
TYX = -.26
- means + in the AGG, figure it out!! UP!:D

[Silverbird]

Oh, right...er right. :embarrest: The chart down at the bottom is faking me out.

[nnuut]

Oh, right...er right. :embarrest: The chart down at the bottom is faking me out.
That chart doesn't mean a thing until after close!!! Look at the TNX and TYX!!:D

[Tomncath]

That chart doesn't mean a thing until after close!!! Look at the TNX and TYX!!:D


So, fill this newbie in. What should the TYX look like in comparison to the TNX? I moved earlier this week only to get cold feet after the Japs started pulling their money out...gotta get better at understanding our F Fund!

[nnuut]

TNX = -.71
TYX = -.26
- means + in the AGG, figure it out!! UP!:D
Well, looks like my calculations were off? Don't know why, but to me when the 10 Year note and the 30 Year note are down the AGG should be up? Sorry about that. Must be the averaging thing or something, does anyone know?:embarrest:

[nnuut]

So, fill this newbie in. What should the TYX look like in comparison to the TNX? I moved earlier this week only to get cold feet after the Japs started pulling their money out...gotta get better at understanding our F Fund!
Yeah me too!! I surely am NOT an expert in Bonds, all I know about the AGG chart is wrong most of the time. Yep I must have been thinking BSSACKWARDS>:cool:

[Braveheart]

The F Fund should be in a good position right now for some good gains after the job report.

Smart money will now move to Bonds etc. and hold on the Market but damn the C Fund S Fund and I Fund will all be good plays in May/June right now they are a coin flip.

[Tomncath]

The F Fund should be in a good position right now for some good gains after the job report.

Smart money will now move to Bonds etc. and hold on the Market but damn the C Fund S Fund and I Fund will all be good plays in May/June right now they are a coin flip.


I hope so, I'm all in again!

[Braveheart]

Up 3 cents today to $12.03 :D

[Braveheart]

I hope so, I'm all in again!

Thank 350Z my lead blocker if you need a TD read his information. I switched to all in myself with his info. o you gained 3 cents today.

[Tomncath]

Thank 350Z my lead blocker if you need a TD read his information. I switched to all in myself with his info. o you gained 3 cents today.


Agreed, Z is the man! We couldn't do it without him....

[James48843]

The back of my neck is itching today. I feel a postive wave in the "F" fund about to take place.

Watch carefully.....

[James48843]

I don't know why Yahoo's "F" chart is not updating- but...

AGG is now showing up 0.24%, as of 10:20 this morning.

Must be one of those Daylight Savings Time glitches.

[nnuut]

The way I calculate the "F" should be UP about $.06 Today. I'll get my money back from yesterday.:D
I need to post a disclaimer after the "F" made me look like a nnuut the other day. NO guarantee on this estimate!!:laugh:

[Removed1]

The way I calculate the "F" should be UP about $.06 Today. I'll get my money back from yesterday.:D
I need to post a disclaimer after the "F" made me look like a nnuut the other day. NO guarantee on this estimate!!:laugh:
NNUUUUUT...does NOT want look like NNUUT..it is funny,just guarantee your estimate NNUUT:p:laugh:
Always love your sense of humor even on sad day(market down day).
Thanks for the info and your contribution to the board.
How to chang my name to ZIEMY instead? Thanks

[nnuut]

NNUUUUUT...does NOT want look like NNUUT..it is funny,just guarantee your estimate NNUUT:p:laugh:
Always love your sense of humor even on sad day(market down day).
Thanks for the info and your contribution to the board.
How to chang my name to ZIEMY instead? Thanks
We would have to ask tom if you want to change your name. If you are in the tracker that needs to be changed also. Just PM Tom if you really want to change it!!
Man, today isn't sad for me, I'm in the "F" and was yesterday. I think I'll stay where I am!:D3528

[hessian]

NNUUUUUT...does NOT want look like NNUUT..it is funny,just guarantee your estimate NNUUT:p:laugh:
Always love your sense of humor even on sad day(market down day).
Thanks for the info and your contribution to the board.
How to chang my name to ZIEMY instead? Thanks
So are we expecting below to now be Nnuut's new avatar also?? :laugh::nuts:
(Just playing, I like Nnuut's avatar - so I hope no change!)
BTW, Thanks for the estimate!

[nnuut]

Hessian, I don't want it, would you like to use it?:laugh:

[hessian]

Hessian, I don't want it, would you like to use it?:laugh:
Definitely not, just made me RLOL:D:D
VR

[Tomncath]

Hey VR - your the man! Way to hit a homerun....:D

Norm - like said yesterday, take a big breath, say ohmmmmm, and remind yourself we'll have to move to and intermediate mindset :laugh: Hopefully the F Fund will be worthwhile for a few weeks!

[Braveheart]

Well that was a shocker F Fund up 10 cents to $12.10 today. :)

[nnuut]

The way I calculate the "F" should be UP about $.06 Today. I'll get my money back from yesterday.:D
I need to post a disclaimer after the "F" made me look like a nnuut the other day. NO guarantee on this estimate!!:laugh:
Well I was only off by $.04, but at least I was in the right direction. The "F" does do some rounding but $.04 is a little much.:D
I'll take it!!:laugh:

[Tomncath]

Should be okay today too but I'm not wild about being in F tomorrow. Z's probably right about the CPI numbers and the F fund taking a hit tomorrow but I'm really trying hard to think with an intermediate-move mindset....:(

[Braveheart]

Should be okay today too but I'm not wild about being in F tomorrow. Z's probably right about the CPI numbers and the F fund taking a hit tomorrow but I'm really trying hard to think with an intermediate-move mindset....:(

I like the F Fund on Monday 3/17/08 before the Fed meeting. The market may drop to force a .75+ cut and if they don't get it and get .50 the market will drop on 3/18/08. But the dollar is worthless now and the other funds look like great buys at these prices but that was said back in December and look at the 11% drop on most C, S & I Fund.

Good Luck :)

[Tomncath]

I like the F Fund on Monday 3/17/08 before the Fed meeting. The market may drop to force a .75+ cut and if they don't get it and get .50 the market will drop on 3/18/08. But the dollar is worthless now and the other funds look like great buys at these prices but that was said back in December and look at the 11% drop on most C, S & I Fund.


My gut feeling is to move to G for tomorrow and back to F for Monday, markets too schizophrenic now...look at the overseas markets today, really down - BUT I trying to not hop around since it really looks like they are going to go through with the IFT limits. THIS IS TOUGH! :sick:

[Braveheart]

My gut feeling is to move to G for tomorrow and back to F for Monday, markets too schizophrenic now...look at the overseas markets today, really down - BUT I trying to not hop around since it really looks like they are going to go through with the IFT limits. THIS IS TOUGH! :sick:

Yes I think tomorrow is a risk. Look at yesterday the F Fund was up 10 cents and that was when the market was actually up but people knew it was inflated so they moved to Bonds etc. Look at today the F Fund is struggling and the market was down earlier 225 points yet the F Fund was only up 2 cents. That is why it's a bad play tomorrow and with the reports coming out the F could lose which is what we would want to set up the IFT tomorrow for Monday when we move back in. See 350 Z Posts as well.

Good Luck :)

[Tomncath]

See 350 Z Posts as well.
Good Luck :)


Yup, that's where I started this whole conversation...leaning heavily toward and IFT to G.

[whitemingo]

[quote=Braveheart;154604]Yes I think tomorrow is a risk. Look at yesterday the F Fund was up 10 cents and that was when the market was actually up but people knew it was inflated so they moved to Bonds etc. Look at today the F Fund is struggling and the market was down earlier 225 points yet the F Fund was only up 2 cents. That is why it's a bad play tomorrow and with the reports coming out the F could lose which is what we would want to set up the IFT tomorrow for Monday when we move back in. See 350 Z Posts as well.

When was the F Fund up this morning? It opened down and has continued down.

[nnuut]

The chart at the bottom of the page for the AGG is almost always WRONG!:D

[Tomncath]

I'll probably hate myself for this but I'm staying put...gotta remind myself intermediate-term moves...ohmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. I see Z went to G :(

[Braveheart]

[quote=Braveheart;154604]Yes I think tomorrow is a risk. Look at yesterday the F Fund was up 10 cents and that was when the market was actually up but people knew it was inflated so they moved to Bonds etc. Look at today the F Fund is struggling and the market was down earlier 225 points yet the F Fund was only up 2 cents. That is why it's a bad play tomorrow and with the reports coming out the F could lose which is what we would want to set up the IFT tomorrow for Monday when we move back in. See 350 Z Posts as well.

When was the F Fund up this morning? It opened down and has continued down.

At one point the F Fund was 3.41 -6 today. In overnight futures trading it was up. Before the day is over it will gain today. :D

[Braveheart]

[quote=whitemingo;154608]

At one point the F Fund was 3.41 -6 today. In overnight futures trading it was up. Before the day is over it will gain today. :D

Well that theory about the F got the boot today. This is like playing a bad slot machine. :suspicious:

[nnuut]

Right now it looks like $.07 ;)for the "F" fund today. That will change by the end of the day!:cool:

[Silverbird]

Sigh, F Fund taking a lunch break, not much volume. Everybody doing one of these:worried:.

[Tomncath]

Right now it looks like $.07 ;)for the "F" fund today. That will change by the end of the day!:cool:



It did! :(

[nnuut]

Yep $.06 Or $.07! I hope?:embarrest:

[Tomncath]

Yep $.06 Or $.07! I hope?:embarrest:


Fingers crossed! :blink:

[Tomncath]

Am I imaging things or did we get an 11th hour spike! :D

[nnuut]

Bond Market closes at 15:00!!:cool:

[nnuut]

Fingers crossed! :blink:
Would you believe $.05 today, must have averaged us down a penny?:cool:
Close 15:00
TNX =.-1.06 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$tnx
TYX = -1.13 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tyx

-.0113.+ -.0106 = -.0219 x .25 = -.005475 / $.09 = -.0608 cents
- minus is a gain in the "F", + plus is a loss.

OK mathamaticians I know there is a better way, but this is close!

[hessian]

Just in general, is F, an OK place to remain for this week?
- Interest is intermediate term, such as, thru end of the month?

Been holding, 65%F, wondering is there any reason to think it would go down? -or will it likely hold up OK?
Thanks :blink:

[thamm]

Would you believe $.05 today, must have averaged us down a penny?:cool:
Close 15:00
TNX =.-1.06 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$tnx
TYX = -1.13 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tyx

-.0113.+ -.0106 = -.0219 x .25 = -.005475 / $.09 = -.0608 cents
- minus is a gain in the "F", + plus is a loss.

OK mathamaticians I know there is a better way, but this is close!


NNUUT,

I am trying to get a better handle on the F fund calculation. Does the denominator of $.09 change? I saw where it was 10 on another post? Thx in advance.

[350zCommTech]

NNUUT,

I am trying to get a better handle on the F fund calculation. Does the denominator of $.09 change? I saw where it was 10 on another post? Thx in advance.

It should be 10. Don't know where the .09 came from.

[Tomncath]

Just in general, is F, an OK place to remain for this week?
- Interest is intermediate term, such as, thru end of the month?

Been holding, 65%F, wondering is there any reason to think it would go down? -or will it likely hold up OK?
Thanks :blink:


Moot point for me. Unfortunatly I jumped in and out of the F Fund when the japs pulled their money out , thus I've made 3 IFTs this month so I'm stuck unless the 10yr MACD bottoms out and I decide to bail to G with the knowledge I'll probably be locked out at the end of April (until the new automated system is implemented). Right now long-term CP is key even tho I know I'll take a hit tomorrow, markets should rally but it will be short-lived and then down we go again...hopefully the F Fund will hold up for awhile.

[amoeba]

Just in general, is F, an OK place to remain for this week?
- Interest is intermediate term, such as, thru end of the month?

Been holding, 65%F, wondering is there any reason to think it would go down? -or will it likely hold up OK?
Thanks :blink:


Hmmm - Hessian and I think alike; that's just about where I'm at (and have been at least 50% F since last July); been watching the fluctuations and its been building on the 50 day MA without crossing it significantly, but it does seem close to a 2 yr high. I'm wondering the same thing, and really don't know the answer. I actually pared down to 60% F recently.

There are times you can see rotations between stock and bond funds (or commodities) in trimtabs and such, but F has been a buy and hold for quite awhile; and a good one. I don't see much in the numbers (employment, philly) that supported today's C rally - there could be something else going on with options expirations or who know's what? (is there that much dumb money out there?).

Next week should be interesting. I guess we'll see.

[hessian]

Hi amoeba,
1st, welcome to the threads. No one has certain answers of course. F has been OK, since, well Mar. 11th, made some profit. Anyway, its the strange deals the Fed, as apparently the PPT is now working - buying banks "riskier Mortage Bonds issues", etc. - sure smells of "bailouts" to me! Strange thing though, is today market seemed to like it.
(F went up) Kinda a mystery, wrapped inside an enigma? :D

Anyway, generally if markets are up, then F goes down, and visa-versa. Right now/today though, F went up - kinda strange (but I won't complain.) I think what might be happening is smart money is realizing times are bad, and gonna get worse - therfore folks buy Bonds. Evidence? -the Fed rate cuts and all the other PPT activity to manipulate holding up stocks. Bottomline I think were OK - wildcard is the stange kind of "bailouts" that the Fed is now running recently (big today).
Maybe our resident experts; "350Z", or "Nnuut" will share their opinions on this. (I know 350 went to F a couple days ago - which makes me feel some degree of comfort).:)
VR

Hmmm - Hessian and I think alike; that's just about where I'm at (and have been at least 50% F since last July); been watching the fluctuations and its been building on the 50 day MA without crossing it significantly, but it does seem close to a 2 yr high. I'm wondering the same thing, and really don't know the answer. I actually pared down to 60% F recently.

There are times you can see rotations between stock and bond funds (or commodities) in trimtabs and such, but F has been a buy and hold for quite awhile; and a good one. I don't see much in the numbers (employment, philly) that supported today's C rally - there could be something else going on with options expirations or who know's what? (is there that much dumb money out there?).

Next week should be interesting. I guess we'll see.

[Tomncath]

So, what now? I'd still like to think the F Fund is a good place to be but I sure can't tell right now...is it possible we really have seen the bottom? I'm having a hard time believing that is the case but this rally is hard to ignore.

[Tomncath]

Boy, discussions across the board have dropped off dramatically...sure getting quite the closer we get to 3/31. :blink:

[Braveheart]

Boy, discussions across the board have dropped off dramatically...sure getting quite the closer we get to 3/31. :blink:

Well I got back in today for a quick 2 cents at $12.16 and went to C & S Funds. Might go back to F Fund for Friday.

[Tomncath]

Well I got back in today for a quick 2 cents at $12.16 and went to C & S Funds. Might go back to F Fund for Friday.

I'm glad you're doing well. I sure would have loved to have been able to ride some of this stock rally but I'm trying hard NOT to get the dreaded letter...probably blown it anyway since my third move was back to the F Fund. I guess time will tell....:blink:

[Silverbird]

Treasuries Dip on Jobless Claims

NEW YORK - Treasurys fell Thursday as a better-than-expected reading on unemployment and tame demand from investment banks for a $75 billion credit auction led investors to pare back their holdings in safe government securities.....

Thursday afternoon, the Federal Reserve put $75 billion in credit up for auction to investment banks. Total bids submitted were $86.1 billion and $75 billion of those were accepted, and the "stop-out rate" _ the lowest accepted bid rate _ came in at 0.33 percent, up from the 0.25 percent minimum bid but lower than many investors anticipated.
"The market took it as a sign of lower stress in the financial system," Wallace said.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 23/32 to 99 20/32, and yielded 3.55 percent, up from 3.46 percent late Wednesday, according to BGCantor Market Data. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The 2-year note fell 21/32 to 100 2/32, with a yield of 1.72 percent, up from 1.62 percent late Wednesday.

The 30-year long bond fell 1 8/32 to 99 26/32, with a yield of 4.39 percent, up from 4.33 percent.

Treasurys have been under some pressure because further deterioration in the economy could mean more interest rate cuts. Lower rates normally encourage bond buying, but recently have been raising worries about inflation, which erodes the value of long-term bonds over time....
http://www.cnbc.com/id/5990199/for/cnbc/

[Braveheart]

I'm glad you're doing well. I sure would have loved to have been able to ride some of this stock rally but I'm trying hard NOT to get the dreaded letter...probably blown it anyway since my third move was back to the F Fund. I guess time will tell....:blink:

No it was a bad move I should gone to the G Fund got smoked in the C & S Funds which was my fault. I should have known at the end of the month, quarter every institution is going to clear their bad news so this could be a very.......very bad move and tomorrow I think we are going to drop below 12,000. I hope not but for those in the G Fund or the F Fund I wish i was there right now.:worried:

[Tomncath]

No it was a bad move I should gone to the G Fund got smoked in the C & S Funds which was my fault. I should have known at the end of the month, quarter every institution is going to clear their bad news so this could be a very.......very bad move and tomorrow I think we are going to drop below 12,000. I hope not but for those in the G Fund or the F Fund I wish i was there right now.:worried:


Sorry, did you see this post over on Corepuncher's thread? This girls been right on recently, if she's right I think we're headed down big time, just a question of how soon. What do you think?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/27/news...ion=2008032713

[Braveheart]

Sorry, did you see this post over on Corepuncher's thread? This girls been right on recently, if she's right I think we're headed down big time, just a question of how soon. What do you think?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/27/news...ion=2008032713

After seeing all the moves the Fed made yet the Market is in trouble because lenders won't lend so the Fed cuts rates and yet to buy a house has gone up even those with pristine credit for a 30 year are getting quotes of 6.25% with 10% down. That doesn't count the millions who are in the trap where the value of the home went from $600K to $300K and they can't do anything. No where to move so we are stuck because the housing market was so overpriced and then the Fed tried everything but it looks beyond repair. Iraq, Housing, Oil etc = market crash I am out tomorrow and taking my losses.

[Gaetaone]

Stupid question of the day.... If AGG was up .04 how did it lose 2 cents?

Thanks,

John

[Corepuncher]

Stupid question of the day.... If AGG was up .04 how did it lose 2 cents?

Thanks,

John

Thats what I was thinking as well, so I'm stupid too :confused:

I'm not complaining though...I bought 50% F fund at todays close so some bonus pennies rule!

[Show-me]

AGG does not track the F fund exactly, just generally.

[Corepuncher]

F fund was up .16%...when the AGG was down .16% today. I do not understand how to estimate the F fund!

I"m not complaining since I"m in F thought :cheesy:

[amoeba]

up from here. this recent rally in stocks is dumb money and short covering. I'm accumulating F

[Guest2]

F fund was up .16%...when the AGG was down .16% today. I do not understand how to estimate the F fund!
I"m not complaining since I"m in F thought :cheesy:

Similar to the EFA, the AGG is a ETF which reflects a close representation
of the F-Fund. Just as a Mutual Fund will, the AGG has expenses and fees
which may alter the returns. Just like the I-Funds (EFA) but no where
near as dramatic as the currency and FV issues that the EFA encounter.

Today however, we saw a +.08 TSP Cent difference in their return.
Just as you stated, its hard to understand and that is exactly why I made
the comments concerning the F-Fund in Squalebears Acc't Talk Thread.
Check it out when you get a minute.

[nelsonal]

One big factor could be dividend payments. AGG makes monthly distributions of income (while they are retained and added to the F fund net asset values) that should result in monthly divergences from the F fund's fair value. It's possible that AGG went ex on the day they were off (that would be about the right amount to cover March interest payments).

[nelsonal]

Also keep in mind that the traded prices of AGG can deviate (although usually the deviation is slight) from the NAV and the F fund's NAV should be similar to the NAV of the AGG which may or may not move with small price changes.

[Braveheart]

I think the F Fund is about to see some gains beginning Friday right through next week. $12.12 might move to that $12.23 mark again if this market drops and it could easily. Usually at $12.20 it drops so not much room for play here. :nuts:

[Guest2]

I think the F Fund is about to see some gains beginning Friday right through next week. $12.12 might move to that $12.23 mark again if this market drops and it could easily. Usually at $12.20 it drops so not much room for play here. :nuts:

I still expect the F-Fund will have Lower Gains/Greater Loses. For all
the same reasons which you guys have pointed out and Barclays.

[Guest2]

The tremendous gain in the F-Fund over it's reflective AGG on April 1st
put the F-Fund in (what I call) a deficit. The AGG is currently up .95%.
I hope I'm wrong about this, however, there may be a strong possibility
that my previous guess of lower/gains may hit this fund today. At least
half of the .15 TSP Cent (IOU) within the F-Fund will probably be made
up with such a strong gain in the AGG. Of coarse, that is as of 11:07am.
We have a long day ahead of us and anything could happen.
:confused:

[nelsonal]

Keep in mind that AGG wen't ex on the 28th so that should have opened a 6 or so cent hole between them. When AGG pays a $40 cent dividend TSP keeps the money in the NAV.

[Guest2]

Keep in mind that AGG wen't ex on the 28th so that should have opened a 6 or so cent hole between them. When AGG pays a $40 cent dividend TSP keeps the money in the NAV.

Strong point and good information! THANKS ! Here's hoping the F-Fund
and the AGG both bring in a whopping 1.0% gain today. Heck, keep it
green for all funds ! Something still tells me that 3:40pm we'll get to
see the real focus of todays market. Good Luck To Us Both !
:D

[amoeba]

I still expect the F-Fund will have Lower Gains/Greater Loses. For all
the same reasons which you guys have pointed out and Barclays.

Nope. F is up big today, just as braveheart predicted, and I expect F to continue to outperform S,C, and I for the next 2 weeks. There is alot of "hopers" out there thinking that a recession will be over by mid-year and I just don't think so. The rise in stocks is a sucker's rally, IMO. Dumb money, too bullish, doesn't match with economic info (jobs, GDP, etc.)

[Asylum]

Is the TSPLookUp2 spread sheet prety good at calculating the F and I funds after closing?

[weatherweenie]

Pimco's Bill Gross said on CNBC that Treasuries are the most overvalued assets in the world.

[Braveheart]

Pimco's Bill Gross said on CNBC that Treasuries are the most overvalued assets in the world.

Well it wasn't overvalued Friday LoL it did very well.

I think I posted that here somewhere that it would jump Friday and usually around $12.20 is the max and it should hit $12.23. After that I would move out but I think this market is going down a bit next week so I am in the G Fund but if this happens I will say the F Fund could hit $12.30 but I won't be in the F Fund with so little room and there is the downside risk.

I was in the S Fund & C Fund all week and ran like hell today in this market right to the G Fund. - Best of Luck - Braveheart :nuts:

[Guest2]

Nope. F is up big today, just as braveheart predicted

It's always a pleasure to be wrong while making so much $$$$$$$.
I'll take the cash over my gut feelings anyday. Glad your doing so
well this year. There's a lot of information to be had on this site,
use it to your advantage and have fun.


Pimco's Bill Gross said on CNBC that Treasuries are the most overvalued assets in the world.

Wow, I better lower my allocations a bit. Don't want to overdue
overvalue.(LoL). Truely, I didn't know that. Thanks

[Guest2]

INTERESTING READING CONCERNING THE BOND MARKET ON FRIDAY

http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/04/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm?postversion=2008040416

[Braveheart]

Bad day coming for F Fund. Futures are way up as of 5:00 AM EST. Ironically I stated usually around $12.20 is the max and right now it's $12.21 there is some room for upside if the market drops this week but I would rather take my chances in the Market or hold in the G Fund right now. - Good Luck Braveheart

[Guest2]

Bad day coming for F Fund. Futures are way up as of 5:00 AM EST. Ironically I stated usually around $12.20 is the max and right now it's $12.21 there is some room for upside if the market drops this week but I would rather take my chances in the Market or hold in the G Fund right now. - Good Luck Braveheart

I feel the same, Only it will take me maybe 7 days to get out due to snail mail.
Here's hoping that my balancing act within all TSP Funds will offset the (F) downturn.

[Braveheart]

I feel the same, Only it will take me maybe 7 days to get out due to snail mail.
Here's hoping that my balancing act within all TSP Funds will offset the (F) downturn.

Good Luck - I was reading Optionman's comments and this guy has been 100% on target for some time with his buy sell signals. I went against his signal for today to the G Fund and he was really still pushing 100% S Fund. He has a sell signal on the F Fund right now but today he is about to change if we see or get near 1400 he thinks we will go back to possibly 1350. Everyone should take a look at his posts unreal. - Best of Luck

[Asylum]

i am very tempted to move out of F and into stocks at COB tomorrow.

[Braveheart]

i am very tempted to move out of F and into stocks at COB tomorrow.

I think the F Fund will gain today maybe to $12.21- $12.24 range because the market is going down right now on future trading. It only lost .02 yesterday it should get that back today + more IMO - Good Luck

[Asylum]

I think the F Fund will gain today maybe to $12.21- $12.24 range because the market is going down right now on future trading. It only lost .02 yesterday it should get that back today + more IMO - Good Luck


I know, i know...

what to do, what to do..

:confused:

I'll prolly stay in F.

[amoeba]

I know, i know...

what to do, what to do..

:confused:

I'll prolly stay in F.


As well you should, up today, and this will continue for at least another week and probably through the summer. I see a rise in the AGG to at least 105 in the very short term.

The stock rally is a total head fake. Don't be a sucker. The US economy is in the tank.

As jimmy conway said in goodfellas:

"What did I tell you, what did I tell you, what did I tell you, what did I tell you, what did I tell you, what did I tell you, what did I tell you, what did I tell you, what did I tell you, what did I tell you, what did I tell you"

Hope you stayed put in F and out of C and S....I sure did.

[ou81200]

Hello All---

Looks like the F fund is getting close to the top of its trading range. If it has another positive day tomarrow, I'll probably go to G and stay there awhile. This will be my second move this month and I'm not sure how to interpret TSPs policy on how many transfers a month, so I guess I'll have to side on caution untill next month.

[Braveheart]

F Fund $12.24 today !!!!!!!!!!!

This is the high point I still see it up to $12.25 - $12.30

[ou81200]

Three times in three months it has went to around 103.50 only to retreat into the 101-101.50 range. We are getting close to that now.

I do agree that there is still some potential gain in this run. My guess is 1-2 days if the market complies appropriately.

[Tomncath]

As well you should, up today, and this will continue for at least another week and probably through the summer. I see a rise in the AGG to at least 105 in the very short term.

The stock rally is a total head fake. Don't be a sucker. The US economy is in the tank.

This is what I see. The recent roller coaster ride is due to the fact that the market has been so volatile that many have moved frequently on and off the sidelines. Typically, this is the time of year when bonds do fairly well for many months...here's hoping that pattern holds because I sure don't comfortable trying to guess where this market is going.

[Guest2]

Looks like either direction could happen. I see resistance just above 103
on the uptrend and 101.25 on the downturn. Since the end of February,
the AGG in this area meant it's time to bailout. While this continue? Heck,
what do I know.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693

[Silverbird]

Heeellloooo F! Stocks going down you are supposed to go up! Up! :(

[Braveheart]

This is a tough call yet once it hits $12.24 it drops. Last high was $12.23 then it dropped. I am 100% G looking for that penny Monday. I don't trust this market so IMO there is nothing to rally on. People jump in on one good report from GE today sweet (HUGE RALLY) but that is one company how many left the market turned off by false data, rumors. Big deal if AOL and Yahoo merge it's almost comical. Every bank is in trouble, people are losing jobs, their homes, the War, Health Care and all is right today on a good report from 1 out of 25,000 companies.

I thought about getting back in for this one or two day rally and would not make the move. The only fund that is a safe play is the G Fund. Best of Luck

[Guest2]

This is a tough call

You got that right. I'm in the F-Fund for balance and
not to make any sizable gains. It's just to hard to get
a grasp on it's direction and too little return for the
effort. Sometimes the G-Penny is worth a heck of a
lot more when all funds drop at once.
:D

[Braveheart]

You got that right. I'm in the F-Fund for balance and
not to make any sizable gains. It's just to hard to get
a grasp on it's direction and too little return for the
effort. Sometimes the G-Penny is worth a heck of a
lot more when all funds drop at once.
:D

Well today the F Fund should get back anything it lost yesterday. Next week earnings are out and if GE is going down and is one of the best run if not the #1 best run companies that is diversified on Wall St. the others are in trouble.

[Braveheart]

I was holding in G Fund until I saw the GE Report and the panic sell so going against the tide 50 S Fund and 50 C Fund for Monday !!!

Since the market dropped 260 today on low volume people are not moving, the big sell was GE and no one really sold in a panic their other stocks etc. If that were the case it would have dropped 500+ but it held showing strength.

[hessian]

Hey found an awesome chart -appreciate some help on its interpretaton -a little beyond me, -does it suggest F-fund (Yields I assume) should continue going up?? OR, is it due for a reversal??)
Chart does seem revealing!!!):

3770

[amoeba]

Three times in three months it has went to around 103.50 only to retreat into the 101-101.50 range. We are getting close to that now.

I do agree that there is still some potential gain in this run. My guess is 1-2 days if the market complies appropriately.


but if you plot the last 6 months you'll see that the resistence on that retreat is rising, to 101.6 recently (last friday). I see it going up some more - will be interesting to see if it breaks the upper bound.

[Braveheart]

but if you plot the last 6 months you'll see that the resistence on that retreat is rising, to 101.6 recently (last friday). I see it going up some more - will be interesting to see if it breaks the upper bound.

I thought the F Fund would drop today but it remained at $12.15 some strange things going on with this fund the past 3 days.

[TSPinWV]

I thought the F Fund would drop today but it remained at $12.15 some strange things going on with this fund the past 3 days.

I agree - I've noticed it also. "Fair valuation" only applies to the I-fund, right? :confused: Interesting, and a little confusing.

[Guest2]

I agree - I've noticed it also. "Fair valuation" only applies to the I-fund, right? :confused: Interesting, and a little confusing.

Let me add to the confusion a little bit;

Just as the TSP Funds seek to reflect the returns of the Index they represent, ie.....C-Fund = S&P500 the F-Fund must do the same. The Lehman Bros. US Aggregate Index is the Index that the F-Fund aspires to reflect. Also known as the (LBA Index). In order to track such an index during the open market, many have found "AGG" the best for such purposes. I've been tracking the AGG for a couple years now. Just as I have been tracking the I-Fund through "EFA".

With that being said, I've found the following holds true;

The C Fund consistantly reflects the daily returns of the S&P 500 on a daily basis with minor differences between the two.

The S Fund returns vary from time to time in comparison to the DWCPF, either up or down, but will always seek out the close refection of the Wilshire 4500 Index on a YTD basis.

The I Fund has a whole gambit of things that result in wild differences from the EFA. "Please see the I-Fund Thread for further details".

The F Fund results have been a mixture of the C & S Fund fluxuations. The fact that its goal to reflect the LBA Index "MUST" be accomplished is the only constant over the last three days. When comparing the AGG vs. F-Fund spread since 1/1/2008, the range has been between -.03 and - 17 TSP Cents. Right now its holding at a very consistant -.11 TSP cent overpayment. To make that sound easier, lets just say that the F-Fund YTD returns have been up between .85% - .95% over and above the AGG YTD returns. At the F-Funds current share price, thats a range of -.10 and -.11 TSP cents. As of the close of business for 4/23 the AGG is up +0.86% YTD. On the other hand, the F-Fund is up 1.80% YTD. Before the end of the year, Barclays must manage to bring these to closer, in order to respectfully reflect one another. So maybe the F-Fund does have something similar to FV going on, but what it is, I'm still not sure.

Boy, that was information overkill, sorry about that. To check and see what I've been yammering about, click on this link and compare the Index Results vs. the TSP Fund Results, if what I was saying didn't hold true for every fund in the TSP, then you would see huge differences. But you don't. Check It Out; http://www.tsp.gov/rates/returns-tsp.html

Thank you for being patient, we now continue with your normally scheduled program.:nuts:

[SteveTSP]

Nice summary. I had the same questions about F fund performance. Thanks for taking the time to write it up with current yr performance comparisons.
Steve

[Braveheart]

F Fund losing money betting on the Fed not cutting interest rates. That explains the Bond issue.

[Bullitt]

The Bond King has been betting against treasury bonds.

The fund also increased derivative positions that make it short in Treasuries, meaning it will profit from declines in the securities. It held negative 18 percent of assets in government debt in March, the most bearish stance since at least June 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0sK6xE46xQk

[Rustynutt]

This (for me) was an interesting read. Linked to it from the Mortgage Implosion page.

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2008/04/no-mr-bondi-exprct-you-to-die.html

A few of Macro Mans other blogs kind of struck note with me as well, Euro/Dollar discussion, energy and more.

The sky may be falling over this house, but if I were to sum up my feelings, other than those that are timing the recent hops and shorting at just the right time, safe haven doesn't exist anywhere except for the G fund in the near future.
No experience what so ever on this end, but the type of trading that is occurring in the market now is beyond my comprehension. Banks are lending at lower rates to each other than the cost for them to secure the funds. Ignorantly, I look at that as the next real-estate fall out, pyramid schemes only last so long. Someone will make out, others will loose. Only bright side I read was one bloggers supported details that the Euro/Dollar deficit may begin to change around next fall, but still wasn't willing to do anything long on his opinion. Italy and Spain, depending on whose information you ingested, seem to be in for so troubled times soon as well.
(statements derived from how I interpreted what was posted).

Any, thought it a good link, the blogs surely explain what I just tried to say much better. :)

[Bullitt]

Only bright side I read was one bloggers supported details that the Euro/Dollar deficit may begin to change around next fall, but still wasn't willing to do anything long on his opinion.

If the Fed opts to cut .25, it shouldn't have much of an effect on the $USD. If the Fed decides to take a pause, get ready for a dollar bounce. I'm expecting the next wave of US Government intervention to take place in the Dollar and it's impact on the commodity bubble. The G7 indicated that they are willing to intervene should the Dollar slip further.

"Government intervention." I can see the doom and gloomers crying and whining about it now. They think they've got it all figured out in the comfy, cozy Gold/Commodity funds and aren't going to be happy when the bubbles bursts. IMO, it's begun to crack.

It's not a matter of if the Dollar rallies, it's a matter of when. When it does, it should take down commodities and every safe haven with it's advance. That should force a few folks off the lilly pad.

[Braveheart]

Any thoughts on the F Fund it is now $12.13. I think this Fund is ready to rebound this week since the $12.08.

[Silverbird]

I'm not so sure, Braveheart. Our usual foreign customers don't seem to be buying. FED needs to show that they aren't going to give into the temptation of lowering interest rates with the dollar dropping like gravity.

[RPM]

Does anyone know the thread with the formula to estimate F? TIA

[Braveheart]

Does anyone know the thread with the formula to estimate F? TIA

Based upon the close at 4:00 pm the F Fund should be $12.21 + 8 cents

Based upon the close at 3:00 pm the F Fund should be $12.19 + 6 cents

It will depend on if the Bond Market did not close at 3:00 pm but if it did the 2 cents would carry over. These are my estimates using the closest numbers with the agg vs. the TSP F Fund

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AGG#chart1:symbol=agg;range=1d;indicator =volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;l ogscale=on;source=undefined

[Braveheart]

Based upon the close at 4:00 pm the F Fund should be $12.21 + 8 cents

Based upon the close at 3:00 pm the F Fund should be $12.19 + 6 cents

It will depend on if the Bond Market did not close at 3:00 pm but if it did the 2 cents would carry over. These are my estimates using the closest numbers with the agg vs. the TSP F Fund

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AGG#chart1:symbol=agg;range=1d;indicator =volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;l ogscale=on;source=undefined

Well they used the 3:00 PM Close and it was $12.18 + 5 cents that is a good day. We should start tomorrow in a good spot.

[Intrepid_Timer]

I believe that with our new trading restrictions, the F fund will suffer. I mean why even bother with it if it's going to cost you one ITF? Does anyone agree with this and if so, do you think the TSP folks would do something about it?

[Braveheart]

BARCLAYS IS PUSHING YIELDS UP ON 10 YEAR NOTE ----- That is why the F Fund is all over the place. What a friggin conflict of interest they know how much we have in the F Fund and all the L Funds, WTF that is gambling against us and inside trading at it's best.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNCksVzJxRZA (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNCksVzJxRZA)

Dealers Pare Treasuries, Signaling Fed Turning Point (Update1)

By Daniel Kruger
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- One word popped into Charles Comiskey (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Charles%0AComiskey&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1)'s head as he watched investors seeking a haven from credit-market losses pile into Treasuries in March: ``Ridiculous.''
The buying spree pushed yields to a five-year low even though rising commodity prices and a depreciating dollar (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY%3AIND) were beginning to spark inflation. The co-head of Treasury trading at HSBC Securities USA Inc. has so far been proven right. U.S. government debt has lost 2.8 percent since March 17, including reinvested interest, according to New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.
``Rates got ridiculous,'' said Comiskey, who is based in New York and started trading in 1989.
The U.S. units of London-based HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc of London, Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt and the other 17 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve have compiled (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PDPPTOTG%3AIND) a $101.4 billion bet against Treasuries, data compiled by the central bank show. That's the most since the week ended Nov. 14, just before yields (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR%3AIND) on 10-year notes climbed half a percentage point over the following month.
Dealers have used any demand ``as an opportunity to move Treasuries off their balance sheets,'' Comiskey said.
The $101.4 billion represents the amount of Treasuries that dealers are using to hedge other positions and is up from $58.3 billion in the week ended March 12, Fed data show. The more they use to hedge, the bigger the wager against Treasuries.

[Braveheart]

BARCLAYS IS PUSHING YIELDS UP ON 10 YEAR NOTE ----- That is why the F Fund is all over the place. What a friggin conflict of interest they know how much we have in the F Fund and all the L Funds, WTF that is gambling against us and inside trading at it's best.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNCksVzJxRZA (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNCksVzJxRZA)

Dealers Pare Treasuries, Signaling Fed Turning Point (Update1)

By Daniel Kruger
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- One word popped into Charles Comiskey (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Charles%0AComiskey&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1)'s head as he watched investors seeking a haven from credit-market losses pile into Treasuries in March: ``Ridiculous.''
The buying spree pushed yields to a five-year low even though rising commodity prices and a depreciating dollar (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY%3AIND) were beginning to spark inflation. The co-head of Treasury trading at HSBC Securities USA Inc. has so far been proven right. U.S. government debt has lost 2.8 percent since March 17, including reinvested interest, according to New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.
``Rates got ridiculous,'' said Comiskey, who is based in New York and started trading in 1989.
The U.S. units of London-based HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc of London, Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt and the other 17 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve have compiled (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PDPPTOTG%3AIND) a $101.4 billion bet against Treasuries, data compiled by the central bank show. That's the most since the week ended Nov. 14, just before yields (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR%3AIND) on 10-year notes climbed half a percentage point over the following month.
Dealers have used any demand ``as an opportunity to move Treasuries off their balance sheets,'' Comiskey said.
The $101.4 billion represents the amount of Treasuries that dealers are using to hedge other positions and is up from $58.3 billion in the week ended March 12, Fed data show. The more they use to hedge, the bigger the wager against Treasuries.

Barclays is betting huge against the 10 year note since April 2008 on Bloomberg. They are gambling big with junk bonds and pushing the yield up on the 10 year note.

Since they are connected with our money all the L Funds and the F Fund that is a direct conflict of interest. They know how many Billions are in the L Funds and the F Fund every day. I will update with a link but that news just broke 10 minutes ago.

[Braveheart]

BARCLAYS __________ I am out of the F Fund

The U.S. units of London-based HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc of London, Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt and the other 17 primary dealers that trade with the Fed have compiled (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PDPPTOTG%3AIND) a $101.4 billion bet against Treasuries, data compiled by the central bank show. That's the most since the week ended Nov. 14, just before yields (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR%3AIND) on 10-year notes climbed half a percentage point over the following month.
The bet represents the amount of Treasuries that dealers are using to hedge other positions and is up from $58.3 billion in the week ended March 12, Fed data show. The more they use to hedge, the bigger the wager against Treasuries.

[Braveheart]

RE: F Fund - I did not move out yet and I guess I won't if Barclay's bet against this heavy as reported they are going to take a beating.

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose as stocks in Europe and Asia fell and the cost of insuring against corporate bond defaults increased, fueling demand for the safety of government debt.
Ten-year notes led the gains as investors were attracted by yields (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR%3AIND) at the highest levels this year after the Treasury Department yesterday sold $15 billion of notes, the most since 2004. Thirty-year bonds were little changed before the government sells $6 billion of the securities today as part of its quarterly refunding program.
``Yields should fall again and buying Treasuries may still be the right thing do,'' said Peter Meister (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Peter+Meister&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), an economist and bond analyst at BHF Bank AG in Frankfurt. ``The burns from the financial-market crisis and the credit difficulties are very grave and it's too soon to declare victory over recession and the economic risks.''
The benchmark 10-year note yield declined 2 basis points to 3.86 percent as of 10:45 a.m. in London, according to bond broker BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 3 7/8 percent security due May 2018 rose 5/32, or $1.56 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 5/32. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Ten-year yields will fall to 3.50 percent by the end of this quarter and rise back to 3.70 percent by year-end, Meister predicted.
The yield (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.USYIELD%3AIND) on the two-year note fell 2 basis points to 2.29 percent, the lowest level in a week.

[Braveheart]

F Fund should have been at least $12.22 or even $12.23

the AGG closed thursday @ 102.16 3:00 pm and closed at 4:00 pm @ 102.19

the AGG closed friday @ 102.27 3:00 pm and closed at 4:00 pm @ 102.23


Question how does the F Fund remain at $12.21 when it gained .11 on the 3:00 pm Bond close ---- Those of us in the F Fund were robbed of at least 1 cent possibly 2 cents per share.:mad: The facts are right in the AGG:mad:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AGG#symbol=AGG;range=1d

[amoeba]

Up!

put my ITF where my mouth is - i.e., F fund, as of yesterday.

look for a couple percent bonus this month.

[luv2read]

the place to be between now and 6/1.:)

[Silverbird]

Treasuries Fall as Durables Excluding Transportation Increased

By Daniel Kruger
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=YCGT0025%3AIND) fell, pushing the 10-year note's yield to 4 percent for the first time since January, after a government report showed orders for durable goods excluding transportation items unexpectedly rose in April.

Bonds extended their losses after the Treasury's sale of $30 billion of the securities drew a yield higher than traders forecast. It was the first time since June 2006 that the notes were sold at a yield higher than the Fed's target rate (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG2YR%3AIND) for overnight lending between banks.

``In all likelihood, the next move by the Fed is a tightening,'' said Richard Schlanger (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Richard+Schlanger&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a fund manager in Boston at Pioneer Asset Management, which oversees $44 billion in fixed income. ``We may get the capitulation trade today.''

The yield (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG2YR%3AIND) on the two-year note rose 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 2.62 percent at 1:13 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 2.125 percent security due in April 2010 fell 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 2/32.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFiQYPdXiQ8E&refer=home

[JTH]

Dec 31, 2007 F-fund price 11.93

June 13, 2008 F-fund price 11.93

F-fund YDT 0.00%

Who would have thunk it?

G-fund is in the lead, and a buy and hold in F would'nt have gotten you squat!!! :blink:

[Gumby]

Dec 31, 2007 F-fund price 11.93

June 13, 2008 F-fund price 11.93

F-fund YDT 0.00%

Who would have thunk it?

G-fund is in the lead, and a buy and hold in F would'nt have gotten you squat!!! :blink:


That is why friends don't let friends Buy and Hold. So the question is......Is FTRIB my friend?
There has been millions of dollars sitting in the F fund since the first of the year. They have made squat buy not re-balancing their account.

[Fivetears]

I just wanna know WHY it is not a problem to REBALANCE the L Funds (which are varied recentages of the tried and true regular TSP Funds) with great regularity... and a HUGE problem for the rest of us to REBALANCE our regular TSP Funds on our own; as we see fit.

Anyone.

[Gumby]

I just wanna know WHY it is not a problem to REBALANCE the L Funds (which are varied recentages of the tried and true regular TSP Funds) with great regularity... and a HUGE problem for the rest of us to REBALANCE our regular TSP Funds on our own; as we see fit.

Anyone.


I think it is fairly easy for the FTRIB to anticipate how many shares will need to be purchased or sold each day due to re-balancing of the L funds. The FTRIB just moves the numbers or fractions of shares between accounts each day. With the aid of high speed computers they can predict on several million accounts what trades have to be made and how many shares will need to be purchased on the open market. This numbers of shares purchased on the open market would be substantially different from the number of shares traded through a rebalancing IFT. FTRIB also have a fairly good idea of how much cash they get each pay period from all participants to anticipate purchases.

The wild card that FTRIB could not predict are the IFT's made by participants. The FTRIB evidently felt they had to hold to much money back from being invested to account for large transfers between funds. Or for some reason Barclays convinced the FTRIB that they were not making enough money or it cost fractionally more to account for daily re-balancing through IFTs. It would be interesting to know how many shares in each fund are purchased each day on the open market before and after the new rules on IFT's went into effect.

What I would like to know is how Barclays or FTRIB handles the trade that is intiated from an online IFT. This IFT must be before noon EST....therefore they know exactly how much money is going to be traded if money is shifted out of the G fund to other funds. Do they buy shares of C, S, & I immediately after the IFT is entered or do they wait until near the close of the market. It appears to me that a company that could possibly day trade on the float of this money from noon to 4 pm EST could potentially make some serious coin if they can predict the movement of the market. Does Barclays get access to this money immediately or how is that IFT money handled.

[Fivetears]

This is what I like about this board; gazillions of ways of outside-the-box thinking. You KNOW they got a $hit load of trigger fingers on trade buttons at all times. I'll bet their computers are very good at predicting market movement. Knowing that a USM trade movement is coming from TSP'ers at 12:00 EST for the next day... sure as hell sounds alot like why WE get fair valued on I fund trades. Perhaps a FAIR VALUE needs to be imposed on Barclays.
...Do they buy shares of C, S, & I immediately after the IFT is entered or do they wait until near the close of the market. It appears to me that a company that could possibly day trade on the float of this money from noon to 4 pm EST could potentially make some serious coin if they can predict the movement of the market. Does Barclays get access to this money immediately or how is that IFT money handled.

[luv2read]

Great comments! Should be moved from "F Fund Thread" to one of the TSP threads...

[ATCJeff]

Didn't bonds sell off today? I thought I saw were bond prices were down today, yet yahoo is showing a gain in bond prices.:confused:

[luv2read]

Auction. Prices up, yields down.

[ATCJeff]

Auction. Prices up, yields down.

equals good for the F fund:)

[tsptalk]

5-minute chart of 30 yr bond. Can you find the auction? :) OK, I gave it away. You probably didn't need the arrow.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/temp/080708.gif

[ATCJeff]

Thanks Tom

[hessian]

Auction. Prices up, yields down.
Hi L2R, Tom/Jeff?
Have any source that I can read about this Auction? I went into F today, unaware of this Auction, and ended up with a closing price higher than expected/desired.
(As usual, a day late, a dollar short, etc.) :o

Any idea what likely this may mean for tomorrow? ...next couple days?
VR

[ATCJeff]

Hi L2R, Tom/Jeff?
Have any source that I can read about this Auction? I went into F today, unaware of this Auction, and ended up with a closing price higher than expected/desired.
(As usual, a day late, a dollar short, etc.) :o

Any idea what likely this may mean for tomorrow? ...next couple days?
VR


Try this link: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/taf.htm

Not sure where the market is going or bond prices.

[tsptalk]

Thirty-Year Treasuries Rise the Most This Year After Auction
(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arosnw4JhjgQ)

[luv2read]

Hi L2R, Tom/Jeff?
Have any source that I can read about this Auction? I went into F today, unaware of this Auction, and ended up with a closing price higher than expected/desired.
(As usual, a day late, a dollar short, etc.) :o

Any idea what likely this may mean for tomorrow? ...next couple days?
VRHessian,

That's a regularly scheduled auction of Tbills, notes and bonds (treasuries), not those special TAF rescue vehicles "backed" by junk collateral. Check here for schedules:

http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf (http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf)

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/auctfund/work/auctime/auctime_nbtmonthlypatterns.htm (http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/auctfund/work/auctime/auctime_nbtmonthlypatterns.htm)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/04/business/04bonds.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=treasury%20auction%20schedule&st=cse&oref=slogin (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/04/business/04bonds.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=treasury%20auction%20schedule&st=cse&oref=slogin)

[hessian]

Wow, thanks all...
That gives some really good background on these Auctions, so I now should be able to move forward to learn more on what to expect/possible affects as these come around again!!
Just want to thank all again for the info provided!
VR :);)

[JTH]

I think the F Fund has held up rather well considering the C funds performance this week. I was hoping it would make a viable break to the downside and it hasn't happened.

[luv2read]

wow everything up up up...:D

[hessian]

Hi L2R,
I noticed in the .pdf link you'ld posted, showing the Auction schedule, that showed Thurday as the 30yr T-Bond sale Thurs (that ran the price up), showed a settlement date of next Friday.
Security Type_/_ Announcement Date_ _/______Auction Date_________/___ Settlement Date
30-year bond_/__Wed., July 30, 2008__/__Thursday, August 7, 2008___/__Friday, August 15, 2008

Tom's link said the 30yr Bond sales success, was much greater than expected -and involved broad interest, including investment of many foreign/overseas central banks.
- I also noted that "Settlement" for these purchaces - is apparently next Friday (15th)!

So, now I'm just curious about whether there could be substantial effect of these "Settlements" all coming due, next Friday - whether this might influence selling next week (e.g., equities, etc.) to meet Settlement obligations? :blink:
Might be interesting?...
VR ;)

[luv2read]

Might be. I haven't paid much attention to settlement dates on those...

[hessian]

Might be. I haven't paid much attention to settlement dates on those...
Hi L2R,
Well I noticed that the F-Fund had a big run-up in price on Friday (15th).
I can't say whether the Bond Auction "Settlement date" was a contributor, or whether it was something else. Curious though, huh? ;)
(Next 30-yr Bond Auction isn't until NOV, but I'll be waiting! :laugh:)

[Show-me]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262

Watch the 200 sma.

[hessian]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262
Watch the 200 sma.
Hi Show-me,
Not sure what to watch? Think its, hit resistance here, or set to blow on by?
The 20 sma may be even more fun! I'm sure you recall the old TV Show, wasn't the quote: "To the moon, ethyl" :nuts::rolleyes:

[luv2read]

what the heck is up with that dip at 11AM?:nuts:

[Silverbird]

Maybe this (source Yahoo Finance)?


11:00 am : The stock market trades near its recently reached session low. Freddie Mac's (FRE 4.13, -0.26) $3 billion five-year Reference Notes were priced to yield 4.172%, which is 113 basis points more than the five-year U.S. Treasury Notes.

Only three stocks within the Dow are posting a gain -- Chevron (CVX 83.94, +0.75), Exxon Mobil (XOM 76.97, +0.40) and Procter & Gamble (PG 71.42, +0.15). The worst-performing stocks within the price-weighted index are IBM (IBM 123.04, -1.55), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 35.41, -1.34) and 3M (MMM 71.19, -1.26).DJ30 -124.90 NASDAQ -24.00 SP500 -12.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 646/474 mln/1836 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 643/260 mln/2259

[luv2read]

Thanks. Interesting that Freddie and JPM (BSC buyout) are both taxpayer funded bailouts of failed concerns, especially if the money went into Freddie at the same time JPM is sinking the S&P today.

[JTH]

Such an odd looking AGG chart today... :blink:

[poolman]

F - Fund

-.01 Today.

[poolman]

F - Fund

Currently Down -.01225 or -.01 cent

[poolman]

F - Fund

+ .03 cents

[JTH]

The F-Fund is on fire and gosh darnet I sure missed that train, or have I?

Anyone have some insight as to where the F-Fund will go from here?

Is it too late to catch the train?

F Fund $12.29

[poolman]

The F-Fund is on fire and gosh darnet I sure missed that train, or have I?

Anyone have some insight as to where the F-Fund will go from here?

Is it too late to catch the train?

F Fund $12.29


That is really Hard to say JTH. I'm going to stay with it until I see a Definitive change happening. Right now I think the Market's are going to be in a Free Fall from present levels which makes me want to stay in the F - Fund. I'm not saying the Fund can't lose a couple of pennies. I'll stay in for that. I do think we will break the January Lowe's. Way to much Bad news. And that makes the F - Fund a good choice. ;):)

[JTH]

Alright everyone, I've been hearing lots of talk about AGG, F and the financials recently.

Can someone here break it down into laymens terms?

[CountryBoy]

Did I read somewhere that the F Fund, Bond market, closes at 3 pm EST? Or is it just wishful thinking? :laugh:

CB

[c35pc]

Group whats your thoughts on the F fund. I saw alot of posts saying get out on monday...but the fund is doing good. Any relationship to the fanny may thing? I just cant find any outlooks on where the F fund is trending. Thanks for any info....G

[nnuut]

I've seen the "F" do better than the "C", but the financials are a mess Fannie May and Freddie Mac are THE BIG Bond Companies It looks like the AGG is going to reach some strong resistance very soon, and I would NOT venture a GUESS as to which way it goes.:cool:
4632

[tsptalk]

Group whats your thoughts on the F fund. I saw alot of posts saying get out on monday...but the fund is doing good. Any relationship to the fanny may thing? I just cant find any outlooks on where the F fund is trending. Thanks for any info....G
The F fund (bonds) will usually find buyers when the markets get in trouble. We were talking the other day in another thread about the Europeans buying up our bonds lately, as a flight to quality. It could be keeping them afloat. If / when the market bottoms, bonds should head back down, in my opinion.

I wish I had taken advantage of the F fund more during this downturn. I have it in my head that with the transfer limits, the F fund transfers are just a waste of a valuable IFT, but if played correctly, that may not be the case.

We can take a 100% G allocation, to 100% F, to 100% stocks, back to 100% G, all in one month. Or 100% stocks to 100% F, to 100% G, etc. I just have not been thinking of this otion and it would have been ideal this summer.

I was going to post a chart too, but I see nnuut beat me to it. Short-term a little over extended. Long term in the middle of a big bullish channel.

[Frixxxx]

Group whats your thoughts on the F fund. I saw alot of posts saying get out on monday...but the fund is doing good. Any relationship to the fanny may thing? I just cant find any outlooks on where the F fund is trending. Thanks for any info....G
The fund sheet prety much lets you know how the F-Fund is calculated in the bond and securities market. Bonds, historically, have been "safe-havens" for money when the markets go down.

returns comparatively since July 28, 2008:
G------F-----C-----S------- I
$0.06---$0.31---$0.43----$0.40-----$-1.62
0.45%--2.55%--3.06%---2.27%--- -7.69%

As for indicators, the Lehman Brothers (US) Aggregate is the Index to watch. But Yield prices are also an indicator as well. If the index has bad bonds, they try to adjust the holdings to get better rates of interest. Just like any loan, as a bond matures, more of its' worth belongs to the holder of the bond and there is little being made off of it interest wise. These are also affected buy the US$ against the global economy.

Hope this serves as a primer for you to do some more research.:cool:

nnuts chart is a valuable indicator as well. If you think it will beat its' 101.88, then holding is not a bad option and less of a rollercoaster than the infamous CSI funds.

[Frixxxx]

...We can take a 100% G allocation, to 100% F, to 100% stocks, back to 100% G, all in one month. Or 100% stocks to 100% F, to 100% G, etc. I just have not been thinking of this option and it would have been ideal this summer....

Hindsight :toung:

[NHFrosty]

I can't make sense of a +0.44% day for AGG but less than a penny gain in the F fund posted by TSP. Have a small stake in F and expected a decent day when I saw the .44% AGG gain. :confused:

[JTH]

Join the club, it's not the first time I've been burned exiting F... Sometimes AGG just doesn't track well with F. :(

[poolman]

I can't make sense of a +0.44% day for AGG but less than a penny gain in the F fund posted by TSP. Have a small stake in F and expected a decent day when I saw the .44% AGG gain. :confused:


I don't get it either. Same thing happen'd yesterday. According to my calculation's yesterday should have been flat but we got 10 cents.:confused:

[350zCommTech]

I can't make sense of a +0.44% day for AGG but less than a penny gain in the F fund posted by TSP. Have a small stake in F and expected a decent day when I saw the .44% AGG gain. :confused:


Join the club, it's not the first time I've been burned exiting F... Sometimes AGG just doesn't track well with F. :(


I don't get it either. Same thing happen'd yesterday. According to my calculation's yesterday should have been flat but we got 10 cents.:confused:

Hi Poolman,

Your calculations were correct. Yesterday, either the huge change in yields messed up their calculations or they did a big FV. What is strange is that if you use yesterday's high(yields) minus the close, you get roughly 10 cents. Let's see if there is FVC in the F fund tomorrow.

Or maybe the F fund has changed and we need to change our calculations.:nuts:

[poolman]

Hi Poolman,

Your calculations were correct. Yesterday, either the huge change in yields messed up their calculations or they did a big FV. What is strange is that if you use yesterday's high(yields) minus the close, you get roughly 10 cents. Let's see if there is FVC in the F fund tomorrow.

Or maybe the F fund has changed and we need to change our calculations.:nuts:


Hey 350Z,

Nice to hear from you. I read about your Golfing. Sound's good. More relaxing than the market's right now. :cheesy:

I hear you on me being right with my calculation. It probably was a Big FV. Hopefully calculations will get a little more normal soon. I can't stand not being accurate. Hope to see you around just a little more. :nuts:

[350zCommTech]

Hey 350Z,

Nice to hear from you. I read about your Golfing. Sound's good. More relaxing than the market's right now. :cheesy:

I hear you on me being right with my calculation. It probably was a Big FV. Hopefully calculations will get a little more normal soon. I can't stand not being accurate. Hope to see you around just a little more. :nuts:

Oh, I'll be around more for sure. 1-2 more months and it'll start to get too cold for golf.:D

[Braveheart]

Oh, I'll be around more for sure. 1-2 more months and it'll start to get too cold for golf.:D

The F Fund is the place to be now with Freddie & Fannie. If I get back to 1267 in the C Fund my next IFT will be 100% F Fund and me arse wil be parked there for a long long time. 3.35 yield next stop that is 30 ticks away.

[350zCommTech]

Something is rotten in F fund land. The huge drop in bond yields today suggest an 8-9 cent gain, but the AGG is only showing a 1 cent gain.

If the F fund only makes a penny or two tonight, it'll mean that the F fund is now a very scary place to be.:worried:

[350zCommTech]

Something is rotten in F fund land. The huge drop in bond yields today suggest an 8-9 cent gain, but the AGG is only showing a 1 cent gain.

If the F fund only makes a penny or two tonight, it'll mean that the F fund is now a very scary place to be.:worried:

According to bond yields, the F fund should be up 11-12 cents tonight, but the AGG only show it up 3 cents.

Hmmm......:suspicious:

[Minnow]

According to bond yields, the F fund should be up 11-12 cents tonight, but the AGG only show it up 3 cents.

Hmmm......:suspicious:

Well, isn't the TspTalk chart the iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond? Their computers aren't allowed to go over what their stock is worth now. :)

[350zCommTech]

Well, isn't the TspTalk chart the iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond? Their computers aren't allowed to go over what their stock is worth now. :)

LOL!!!!!!:laugh:

How did I miss that???

[Braveheart]

BARCLAYS IS PUSHING YIELDS UP ON 10 YEAR NOTE ----- That is why the F Fund is all over the place. What a friggin conflict of interest they know how much we have in the F Fund and all the L Funds, WTF that is gambling against us and inside trading at it's best.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNCksVzJxRZA (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNCksVzJxRZA)

Dealers Pare Treasuries, Signaling Fed Turning Point (Update1)

By Daniel Kruger
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- One word popped into Charles Comiskey (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Charles%0AComiskey&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1)'s head as he watched investors seeking a haven from credit-market losses pile into Treasuries in March: ``Ridiculous.''
The buying spree pushed yields to a five-year low even though rising commodity prices and a depreciating dollar (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY%3AIND) were beginning to spark inflation. The co-head of Treasury trading at HSBC Securities USA Inc. has so far been proven right. U.S. government debt has lost 2.8 percent since March 17, including reinvested interest, according to New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.
``Rates got ridiculous,'' said Comiskey, who is based in New York and started trading in 1989.
The U.S. units of London-based HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc of London, Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt and the other 17 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve have compiled (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PDPPTOTG%3AIND) a $101.4 billion bet against Treasuries, data compiled by the central bank show. That's the most since the week ended Nov. 14, just before yields (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR%3AIND) on 10-year notes climbed half a percentage point over the following month.
Dealers have used any demand ``as an opportunity to move Treasuries off their balance sheets,'' Comiskey said.
The $101.4 billion represents the amount of Treasuries that dealers are using to hedge other positions and is up from $58.3 billion in the week ended March 12, Fed data show. The more they use to hedge, the bigger the wager against Treasuries.

Anyone think Barclays really wanted LEH to stand that entire bid was a fraud they would make more money if the US markets crashed and Lehman Failed - they just made Billions today on the backs of America!!!

[350zCommTech]

According to bond yields, the F fund should be up 11-12 cents tonight, but the AGG only show it up 3 cents.

Hmmm......:suspicious:

F fund only up 6 cents. F Funders got screwed.

[Braveheart]

F fund only up 6 cents. F Funders got screwed.

Barclays what's a few cents from a few billion friends. They are now buying LEH assets and if you see my post below first they made money on the 10 year note today BILLIONS now they will use that $$ to buy LEH assets so in the end Barclays bought LEH for NOTHING !!! How is that for a scam.

[weatherweenie]

Am I seeing this right? The F Fund lost 3 cents today?

[350zCommTech]

Am I seeing this right? The F Fund lost 3 cents today?

Yes, they over paid yesterday. It should be even now.

[Braveheart]

Yes, they over paid yesterday. It should be even now.

It's going to be a long several days for the F Fund. If the market really does spike it could drop back to $12.05 - $12.10 that may be my second IFT on September 30th 100% F Fund.:nuts:

[XL-entLady]

The bail-out plan discussion is starting to make me :sick:. So will you help me take it to a level we can do something about? What can we do to maximize our TSP returns?

I'm trying to figure out what this unprecedented situation is going to do to F Fund. Normally F Fund seesaws with the equity markets. But what is the bailout going to do to yields?

Let's develop a constructive conversation about where we see F Fund going short-term (say, the next month or so) and more long-term (say, the next six to nine months).

What are your thoughts? Thanks!

Lady

[amoeba]

very hard to tell:

In july, bonds did tank with stocks, then they went up, and then down again recently - but nowhere to the depths as the other funds.

the aggregate bonds have been behaving as a safe haven recently from alot of bad news; credit, reduced consumption, increased unemployment.

BigBully is the only one who has been able to time the F fund recently, and actively transfers in and out of there with success; I don't know how he does it.

[XL-entLady]

Thanks for your comments, Amoeba! I was thinking of trying F, but maybe the whole credit situation is just too weird. I'm not going in unless a trend tells me that's the way to go.

Lady

[Braveheart]

Thanks for your comments, Amoeba! I was thinking of trying F, but maybe the whole credit situation is just too weird. I'm not going in unless a trend tells me that's the way to go.

Lady

I think it could lose a few cents on an up day. Right now the futures are up over $200

[Braveheart]

The bail-out plan discussion is starting to make me :sick:. So will you help me take it to a level we can do something about? What can we do to maximize our TSP returns?

I'm trying to figure out what this unprecedented situation is going to do to F Fund. Normally F Fund seesaws with the equity markets. But what is the bailout going to do to yields?

Let's develop a constructive conversation about where we see F Fund going short-term (say, the next month or so) and more long-term (say, the next six to nine months).

What are your thoughts? Thanks!

Lady

I believe the day the bailout passes the F Fund will really drop and if that C Fund gets to $14.50 - $14.75 I will move 100% over to the F Fund. Once the markets breaks and it will at some point in October I don't want to be in it and the Fed could do a rate cut which will also kick in.

[XL-entLady]

I believe the day the bailout passes the F Fund will really drop and if that C Fund gets to $14.50 - $14.75 I will move 100% over to the F Fund. Once the markets breaks and it will at some point in October I don't want to be in it and the Fed could do a rate cut which will also kick in.
That makes a lot of sense! Food for thought. Thanks for sharing!

Lady

[James48843]

I don't know what the heck is happening in the bond market right now, but the "F" fund (symbol AGG) is showing DOWN 3.3% percent right now.

That is UNHEARD OF in the history of TSP. "F" fund has never moved more than a full percent in any one day that I am aware of. This would be the equivelant of OVER 40 cents per share drop in the "F" fund value if this holds.

It's like an earthquake.

[amoeba]

James, I was just going to post the same thing - AGG is down 3.6% now!

That is at least a five-year low. Could be some mass short-term rotation/speculation in equities based on the pending vote tonight, or the start of something really bad.

Possible opportunity, or knife-catching attempt, for the brave.

[XL-entLady]

I don't know what the heck is happening in the bond market right now, but the "F" fund (symbol AGG) is showing DOWN 3.3% percent right now.

That is UNHEARD OF in the history of TSP. "F" fund has never moved more than a full percent in any one day that I am aware of. This would be the equivelant of OVER 40 cents per share drop in the "F" fund value if this holds.

It's like an earthquake.
Smart money worried about what the bail-out will do to yields? :confused::confused:

So much for F Fund being a "sort of" safe fund!

Lady

[justbizness45]

Ok, so the AGG was down .71% for the day, why did the F fund go up?

[Guest2]

Ok, so the AGG was down .71% for the day, why did the F fund go up?

One good reason might be that the iShares AGG pays out a Dividend Yield
of 4.8% and the (F) Fund pays no dividend. Just as Fee's for IFT's hit the
TSP Funds, the AGG fee's are most likely higher then the TSP's (F) Fund.

I want to say that I remember reading about a different closing time for
the Bond Market, as opposed to the Stock Market. If that holds true, then
the (F) Fund might have a FV situation it contends with as well. Not as
drastic as the (I) Fund has, but a small one, non the less. Maybe someone
could add to this answer based on their direct knowledge. Please correct
me if I'm off base with anything I've written, I want to understand the
(F) Fund vs. the AGG better too ! ;)

[Braveheart]

Was there a test of the 10 year Bond today at 2:22 PM EST - read this below and there is a link. Was this a live test today right on the F Fund. In my opinion the charts say yes because the volume stopped right at that time then resumed. This information is for a 30 year below but something happened at 2:22 PM on October 1, 2008 that was more than odd !!!

The bailout of Wall Street may not have ultimate costs as high as the nominal bailout amount, but the interest payments on the debt will come due immediately, and the recoveries from Wall Street, if any, will take many years.
The impact of the bailout which will surely happen in one form or the other, will impact taxes, interest rates, the exchange rate of the Dollar, imports and exports, foreign direct investment both in and out of the US, corporate sales and profits, and a long list of economic and investment dimensions too long to mention and to unknowable to predict.
You can bet that your investments will be heavily impacted — fixed income (proxies AGG (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/agg) and IEF (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ief)), domestic equities (proxies SPY (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/spy) and VTI (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/vti)), international equities (proxies EFA (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/efa) and EEM (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/eem)), real estate (proxy VNQ (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/vnq)), commodities (proxies DJP (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/djp), USO (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/uso) and GLD (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/gld)), currencies (proxies UUP (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/uup) and UDN (http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/udn)) and other types of investments will all be impacted.
It’s too soon for us to come up with investment or disinvestment recommendations we’re willing to publish. However, one big factor in how things play out is the size of the tab for the bailout on a per investor basis.
We’ve noodled some costs we’d like to share with you here.
Per Taxpayer Annual Costs:
Who will pay how much and for how long for the bailout?
With the assumptions below, how much would taxpayers in each bracket have to pay per year for 30 years to support the debt service on the bonds issued for the bailout, assuming 30-year amortization of a sinking fund?
<LI _extended="true">if the total bailout is $1 trillion (the prior $300 billion already paid out, plus the $700 billion proposed to be paid out), <LI _extended="true">and if the money is borrowed by the US using 30-year Treasury bonds, <LI _extended="true">and if the interest rate is the 4.13% rate for 30-yr bonds today <LI _extended="true">and if taxpayers are burdened to the same degree that they currently pay taxes
then WOW!
The annual cost per average taxpayer is $439, but the distribution among income segments is tremendously skewed.
The bill for the top 1% of taxpayers is a shocking $173,000 per year. The annual bill for the bottom 50% of taxpayers is an easy $27

http://seekingalpha.com/article/98028-bailout-cost-per-taxpayer-by-income

[XL-entLady]

What is going on with AGG today? Wierd, wierd. :confused: F Fund is not supposed to be a roller-coaster fund!

Lady

[Silverbird]

F Fund is debt (bonds) where the credit crunch(y) chickens are coming to roost, at the same time it's the usual place to go when you don't want to buy stock. I think both camps are having a little skirmish right now. Waiting on the House isn't helping either.

[XL-entLady]

F Fund is debt (bonds) where the credit crunch(y) chickens are coming to roost, at the same time it's the usual place to go when you don't want to buy stock. I think both camps are having a little skirmish right now. Waiting on the House isn't helping either.
I'm sure you're 115% right in your analysis there too, Silverbird.

In normal times I would be running to F Fund right now. But I think that there are going to have to be a lot of bond offerings in the next little while and that will drive the yield in the bond market down. What do you think?

Lady

[Silverbird]

I'm sure you're 115% right in your analysis there too, Silverbird.

In normal times I would be running to F Fund right now. But I think that there are going to have to be a lot of bond offerings in the next little while and that will drive the yield in the bond market down. What do you think?

LadyI frankly have no clue, that's why I jumped to G even though it meant I'm below 1% annual gains on my TSP account again (but I didn't fall into a hole).:embarrest:

[c35pc]

I have no real info but I do believe the f fund will climb to the 12.26-12.30 level in the next two weeks. It took a drop from 12.36 but is slowly climbing back up...jmo ..100 G but thinking of 50 G, 50 F on monday?

[poolman]

I have no real info but I do believe the f fund will climb to the 12.26-12.30 level in the next two weeks. It took a drop from 12.36 but is slowly climbing back up...jmo ..100 G but thinking of 50 G, 50 F on monday?


There will be better possibilities IMO, Possibilities of One Day Hail Marie's within the month. :)

[XL-entLady]

Just a quick MB visit (I'm away from the internet tomorrow through Thursday, which may not be a bad thing :o) but I'm wondering.

Everybody has a "deer in the headlights, can't look away" focus on the TSP equity funds. When equities funds tank is usually a great time to be in F Fund, especially with a rate cut on the horizon. Sometimes Corepuncher's 3-month F Fund candles look reasonable, depending on where the daily rollercoaster is. ("F Fund rollercoaster" - that phrase is just WRONG!)

So is F Fund worth a look? Or will the bail-out mess up the yields so much that the humble G penny is still the shiniest?

I'm getting tired of G but I don't think we're at bottom yet on the equity funds. I'm looking closely at F. But I don't want to move just for the sake of moving somewhere....

Thoughts?

Lady

[Silverbird]

I don't think either will move until the Libor moves.

[Babo]

A question on where did the F Fund go?

Comparing F value (~4% haircut) to Lehman Agg Bond Index (15% haircut) over last 30 days there is a notable difference. Differences yesterday very distinguished.

Are these two indexes that disconnected??

Still trying to understand this fund...

Note: I held no position in F during this time (wary of corporate bond strength), just wondering why the large difference.

Thanks for any education on this that you can provide.

[alevin]

N answers for Babo but another question for F fund experts that goes along with q's I just posed to SB re I fund. Perhaps the AGG current discount (-8.86%) relative to underlying index has some relationship to the disconnect between F fund and Lehman index and defacto the answer to that q may help answer Babo's q?


iShares Lehman Aggregate Fund (AGG) http://www.etfconnect.com/images/index_etf_icon.gif Index ETF
Fund Quick Facts
As of 10/10/2008 Closing NAV:$96.99Current Distribution Rate:5.29%Closing Share Price:$88.40Premium/(Discount):-8.86%


http://http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/fixed_etf.asp?MFID=118409#Premium/Discount%20History

[coolhand]

http://tinyurl.com/3gs4vj

[XL-entLady]

http://tinyurl.com/3gs4vj
Thank you, Coolhand! Over the past few weeks, I've been overloading my frail brain trying to understand why F Fund was moving the way it was, and I wasn't making any headway.

It was easy to absorb the base facts: The F Fund is invested in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund, which tracks the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate (LBA) Index, and does so by purchasing shares of the Barclay's U.S. Debt Fund Index "E", which in turn holds shares of the Barclay's U.S. Debt Index Master Fund. The F Fund is invested in investment-grade fixed-income securities with maturities of more than one year, with a break-out of approximately 45% asset-backed securities, 35% government or government related securities, and 20% credit.

And I understand that in today's financial market, the 20% credit could fluctuate, and even the 45% asset-backed securities are only worth what current fair market value says they are. But I didn't think anyone would be doing a mark to market on them to account for some of the wild swings we're seeing.

So I read your linked article with great interest, especially the last part:

"Finally, this must be an embarassment to Barclays, which runs iShares. They have a large vested interest in making sure that investors don't come to view ETFs as having this type of NAV discount risk.

"This is an opportunity certainly for longer-term fixed-income investors (buying "the market" at a large discount), but it is certainly potentially an opportunity for a trader. Yes, in this crazy market, an anomaly that might ordinarily not persist for long could end up taking a while to reverse, but this one, given the redemption process, seems unlikely to endure.

"Disclosure: Long AGG"

Finally something that makes sense to me and explains what I'm seeing! And confirms something I was thinking of doing with my TSP account as well! Thanks again! :cool::cool:

Lady

[coolhand]

Thank you, Coolhand! Over the past few weeks, I've been overloading my frail brain trying to understand why F Fund was moving the way it was, and I wasn't making any headway.

It was easy to absorb the base facts: The F Fund is invested in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund, which tracks the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate (LBA) Index, and does so by purchasing shares of the Barclay's U.S. Debt Fund Index "E", which in turn holds shares of the Barclay's U.S. Debt Index Master Fund. The F Fund is invested in investment-grade fixed-income securities with maturities of more than one year, with a break-out of approximately 45% asset-backed securities, 35% government or government related securities, and 20% credit.

And I understand that in today's financial market, the 20% credit could fluctuate, and even the 45% asset-backed securities are only worth what current fair market value says they are. But I didn't think anyone would be doing a mark to market on them to account for some of the wild swings we're seeing.

So I read your linked article with great interest, especially the last part:

"Finally, this must be an embarassment to Barclays, which runs iShares. They have a large vested interest in making sure that investors don't come to view ETFs as having this type of NAV discount risk.

"This is an opportunity certainly for longer-term fixed-income investors (buying "the market" at a large discount), but it is certainly potentially an opportunity for a trader. Yes, in this crazy market, an anomaly that might ordinarily not persist for long could end up taking a while to reverse, but this one, given the redemption process, seems unlikely to endure.

"Disclosure: Long AGG"

Finally something that makes sense to me and explains what I'm seeing! And confirms something I was thinking of doing with my TSP account as well! Thanks again! :cool::cool:

Lady

You're welcome. Glad I could help. :)