Patterns

[Ecurb]

Tom,

I am new to message boards...on the 16th I attempted to post my thoughts on where the C fund was heading, using a "w" formation or pattern. I asked if you were familiar with that technique. I felt there was a 'W' forming under the 50 day moving average and there was a good possibility of a two or three day up move. So, I ask again...are you familiar with the charting formation and do you use it, along with the other indicators you have mentioned in some of your posts?

Ecurb

[tsptalk]

Sorry Ecurb, I must have missed that earlier post. I am familiar with what a "W" pattern is but I don't really use it beyond recognizing it. I don't really see a W recently. I saw a cup and handle formation that failed to breakout in early March, but maybe you are looking at a shorter term pattern. Can you explain the points of the W you see along withthe time frame?

Thanks.

[Ecurb]

Tom,

I attempted to post this, this morning but it did not post, so here goes again... and yes, I am looking at a short term chart. Use 'BigCharts.com'..bring up the (SPX) with a 'JAVA Chart'..under chart options use (3 month, daily)..upper indicators use(EMA 25,50) and (MA envelope).. use a (line chart)..and for the lower indicators I use (ULT Oscillator),(DMI),and(MACD) but you might like something else.

Start point3/5 (1156) starts down, 3/11 (1106) hits support, 3/12 (1120) bounces to resistance, 3/15 (1104) hits support again (-2pts), 3/17 (1123)hits resistance again only higher (+3pts), which is just below the 9 day MA (1125), 50 day MA (1130), 25 day MA (1134), all approximate. If the S&P 500 were to close above these 3 averages, they would become support, and the idea is it would move higher. Hopefully to the next resistance level or retrace previous high. Of course it did not break the formentioned moving averages today, it went sideways. So, I will be going to the G fund for Mondays action. I hope this helps explain...any flaws let me know.

Ecurb

[tsptalk]

Ecurb-
I'm not sure I see the W formation but I see what you are saying about the support/resistance area of the EMA's. That 50 day ema may be tough to penetrate on the first few attempts so I see why you are going to G.

That really is a cool site. I used it a few years ago when I was doing more individual stock trading. Looks like they did some nice upgrades.

Keep us posted on any developments (ie: MA crossovers etc).
Sorry you are having troubleposting. I haven't had that problem.

Thanks,
Tom

[Frizz B.]

Hey Ecurb, I am also new to the talk line, just wondering if you have a system changing your funds, does the W system work. Since the first of the year













Mine
F Fund
C Fund
S Fund
I Fund

26-Mar-04
13.31
10.25
11.65
12.86
13.15

31-Dec-03
12.48
9.99
11.65
12.48
12.9


0.83
0.26
0
0.38
0.25


6.65%
2.60%
0.00%
3.04%
1.94%

I am up 6.65 % better than doubling the other markets. I have been doing my own system on transferring funds. I like to share my ideas. Let me know if you are interested.

FrizzB.

[Frizz B.]

My message looks funny, that was not the way I posted it. all the colors should be lined up in a row.

FrizzB.

Interested, Could you rearranged chart and re-post?

RA

[Wheels]

Better yet, can you give us a quick summary of the system that is working so well?

Dave

[tsptalk]

Welcome frizzB -

I'm not sure I get it either. You assign yourself a share price? Can you explain? If you are up6.65% this year, I think you are in the wrong business ;)

[Ecurb]

FrizzB,

I have only been moving my TSP since Jan 30. I was up 3.4% for Feb. However, I recently got greedy and moved into the C and S too early (not trusting my charts...not being patient) and got out one day too late ( not my fault, where I work we were allowed on our breaks to access our TSP accounts online, unknown to me that practice was stopped recently). Nearly losing the 3.4% I made in Feb in 5 trading days. I use support and resistance to make my decisions and as I said I need to believe in what I am doing and have patience getting in and not be so greedy... and get out with a profit. As I feel I get better, I will be happy to share what I do,but to be honest, I am using a lot of what Tomis posting as well as others to make my decisions as well.

Welcome FrizzB and thanks for the response to my post...:)

Ecurb

I can read your chart OK and would like to know your system.

[smine]

Yes, welcome....and please share your strategy.

[Frizz B.]

Point differential S fund- C fund (Pt diff was low 80 to 120), I started Jan 15th, and I was in the S fund and I subracted the C fund (12.93 - 11.86 = 107 diff) this was my first trade and I was not sure. I use excell to work my calculations. When you make your switch you have to divide the amt of $$ of the fund you are in by the share price of the fund of the other 3 funds I use, I was just using the C, S, and I, big mistake not using the F Fund also in my calcutation. I just started figuring and have learning as I go along. Anyways if you look back at the history of the funds the S and I was trading back and forth .25 ahead and then .25 behind. Ex. June 13 S-10.23 & I-10.49. I had a .26 edge, July 11 S-10.68, I-10.42 S fund .26 advantage, Oct 20 S-11.49 & I-11.77, I had .22 adv, Nov 3 S-11.98 & I-11.72 S had .26 Adv, Dec 9 S-12.03 & I-12.28 I has .25 Adv. Sell high and buy low. I had just started doing calculations and I was waiting for the S to go ahead, hasn't happened yet. So I started looking into the C fund with the S. Started in Dec where the S fund went 1.20 ahead & then went back to .80 and then back to 1.20.

So first trade Jan 14 S-12.93, C-11.86 (107 dif-Next Day 110 dif), Change all calculations to have all $$$ equal to the S fund by dividing the amt. I had in the S fund by the Share amt in the Fund, I color code my accounts F Fund is black, C fund is Blue, S fund is red, and the I fund is green. On Feb 4th moved from the C fund back to the S fund, S-12.69 & C-11.81 (88 pt dif, next day 90), picked up 123 shares of S stock. On Feb 11 moved S-13.27 to C-12.15 a 112 pt diff, next day 112 dif, On Feb 23 moved C-11.98 to S-11.98 a 88 dif, next day 90 dif. Pick up 228 shares of S stock. On march 2 moved S-13.32 to C-12.14 a 118 dif, next day 120 diff. This is where I'm at at this point. The S fund has yet to come back in the high 90's or low 100's diff. That is what I am looking for.

Now the kicker that is truly frustrating to me. Since I just started my calculation I was not thinking about the F fund. Every time I moved from the C fund to the S fund when the point diff was in the high 112 to 120 the S and the C gained in share price, and the F fund went down or stayed the same, when I moved from the C to the S, both the S and C basically lost a lot of share price. The F went up. If I had moved from the S to the F I would be over 10 % gain for the year. As it is only 6 something.

So after all this hear is my system.

S to C Points diff 115 or higher

C to S Points diff 100 or lower

S to FPoints diff 310 or higher

F to S Points diff 280 or lower

Sell high buy low pick up stocks shares, let me know if this makes any sense at all. I like to keep on trying new things, looking into using the $$$$ system, when one share get at least $2,000 ahead of another fund, move to that fund. You have to start with all $$$$$$ equal in each fund in your excel spread sheet and everyday when the shares come in plug them into your spread sheet, the $$ amt will change. Something new, just starting working on that one. I figure I can use both my system to work together.



good luck, any questions let me know

FrizzB.

[Wheels]

Yikes,

Someone (by this I mean you Tom) is going to have to digest that and repost it English for me.

Dave

[tsptalk]

Interesting thinking Frizz. I am all for systems since they take the emotion out of trading. Correct me if I'm wrong, it sounds as if this is based on all funds eventually performing equally and when they are not, you go into the one lagging. Is that about right?

I see you only started recently. What made you try this? Have you tried back testing it? The last two years (2003 and 2002)would be good test data. One great year and one terrible year.

Thanks,
Tom

[Wheels]

Ok I sort of get it. I've thought this way many times myself but I never bothered to measure it. I'm still curious though Frizz, when comparing your own gains to that of the C,S, and I, how did you arrive at a share price for your own account.

Dave

[Frizz B.]

This short message is before my next message, when I tried to copy and paste is where my problem before was. It took my format and printed them the wrong way. If my next message does the same, email me and I will send you the inserts of Excel and Word where I this next message.

Frizzb

[Frizz B.]

I was in a quandary until the tsp showed the history of the funds. I could not figure out which fund I wanted. Again I was in the S fund and the I fund went ahead and then the S fund went ahead and then the I fund went ahead. When the history came online I put the numbers of the share prices in an excel program, IF ANYONE WANTS MY PROGRAM ON EXCEL, JUST CLICK ON MY EMAIL AND LET ME KNOW AND I WILL SEND IT TO YOU WITH BETTER RATIONAL.

I was just using the S and I fund, now I am using the F, C, S, and I fund to calculate the point differentials of the funds.

I will hopefully show everyone a little more clearly. When I use the differential in a 80 to 120 range, I multiplied the differential by 100, easier to look at then .80 - 1.20.

S Fund to C fund and back again and forgot to watch the F Fund
S Fund above 110, C Fund below 95 First move was a nervous move
Jan 14 Feb 4 Feb 17 Feb 23 Mar 1

S-12.91 S-12.69 S-13.26 S-12.86 S-13.32 C-11.85 C-11.81 C-12.09 C-11.98 C-12.14 _______ _______ ______ _______ _______ Dif 106 Dif 88 Dif 112 Dif 88 Dif 118 ND 107 ND 90 ND 112 ND 90 ND 120 CT (S to C) CT (C to S) CT (S to C) CT (C to S) CT (S to C)

Dif = Differential ND = Next Day CT = Change to
I did not look what effect the change in Dif had to the Funds and what the F Fund did at the same time until to late, but now I am.
If you notice when I changed from the S to the C the market lost share price when you changed back to the S the market gained share price



with the F Fund when you changed to C the F Fund gained or lost very little making you more money if you had changed to the F Fund instead of the C Fund

OVERALL VIEW
When S Fund is above a Differential of over 310 of the F Fund move to the F Fund when the F Fund has a differential of 290 to the S Fund move to the S Fund

I use the C Fund only as a guide and since early December the I Fund has not come back to the S Fund so I have not worked out a point differential for the I Fund, looking under 15 and over 35 to the S Fund.

Hopes this makes a little sense.

Tom, to answer your ? about history, the tsp only shows daily back till June 1, 2003. When the tsp showed this tracking, I started my calculations. Have been trying different formula’s since.

Frizz B.

To Dave:

When you use your excel account you have a starting point where all your Funds have exactly the same cash value which is equal to your tsp account. Then you divide your $$ by the share price of each fund. That will give you your shares for each account. When you make your transaction you will notice your shares will increase hopefully and you will have to adjust each accordingly with the shares for each.

You still keep a record of your starting point with the shares and each payday you will add to that account and your new account as well. Then what you have in your new account will be divided by the share you have in your starting account.











Example: Start with $100000 in each account starting with my Jan 15 transaction.

S FUND TO C FUND TO S FUND TO C FUND TO S FUND TO C FUND
Jan 15 $100,000/12.93=7734 & $100,000/11.86=8432 Feb 5 C- 11.84*8432=$99835 S-12.74*7734=$98531 Take $99835/12.74=7836 S shares increase of 102 S SHARES Feb 18 S-13.21*7836=$103514 C-12.09*8432=$101943 Take $103514/12.09=8562 C Shares increase of 130 C Shares Feb 24 C-11.96*8562=$102,402 S-12.86*7836=$100,771 Take $102,402/12.86=7963 S shares increase of 194 S SHARES Mar 2 S-13.27*7963=$105,669 C-12.27*8562=$103,343 Take $105,669/12.27=8755 C Shares increase of 193 C Shares

My Increase for the Year to Date Would be for March 2
My Portfolio = $105,669/7734 beginning shares=13.66

Original S Fund = Shares 7734*13.27 = $102,630 My % = 13.66-12.74 (Starting share price for C) = .92 .92 / 12.74 = 7.22 % increase since Jan 15, 2003

IF I HAD ONLY DONE
MORE CALCULATIONS EARLIER
S FUND TO F FUND
Jan 15 $100,000/12.93=7734 & $100,000/10.12=9881 Feb 5 F-10.06*9881=$99403 S-12.74*7734=$98531 Take $99403/12.74=7802 S shares increase of 68 S SHARES Feb 18 S-13.21*7802=$103064 F-10.14*10164=$100193 Take $103064/10.14=10164 F Shares increase of 283 F Shares Feb 24 F-10.16*10164=$103,266 S-12.86*7802=$100,334 Take $103,266/12.86=8030 S shares increase of 228 S SHARES Mar 2 S-13.27*8030=$106,558 F-10.16*10164=$103,266 Take$106,558/10.16=10487 F Shares increase of 324 C Shares





My Portfolio = $106,558/7734 beginning shares=13.77

Original S Fund = Shares 7734*13.27 = $102,630 My % = 13.77-12.74 (Starting share price for C) = 1.03 1.03 / 12.74 = 8.08 % increase since Jan 15, 2003

FrizzB.



My Increase for the Year to Date Would be for March 2
My Portfolio = $105,669/7734 beginning shares=13.66 Original S Fund = Shares 7734*13.27 = $102,630 My % = 13.66-12.74 (Starting share price for C) = .92 .92 / 12.74 = 7.22 % increase since Jan 15, 2003

[Wheels]

OK The math is a little beyond me right now (perhaps if I study it, it'll start to come to me) but help me out with the premise. It sounds like all your saying is when one fund gets too far out front of another that you want to be in the laggard while it catches up. Like Tom says above aren't you assuming that all the funds are going to eventually be equal. If that were true you would want to be all F right now because it is so far behind the others. I'm sure I am missing something.

Thanks for sharing all this. It's very interesting and it is serving you very well. I'd like to learn a little more.

Dave

[tsptalk]

Very interesting Frizz. It showssome merit and I can see why it would work.

One thing I might notwork out isusing the F fund when... "When S Fund is above a Differential of over 310 of the F Fund move to the F Fund when the F Fund has a differential of 290 to the S Fund move to the S Fund"

I could be wrong, but I think it has worked out early this year because of the pullback, butif we end up having a year like last year, the C, S and I funds should really pull away from the F fund. You'llend up missingthe stock run unless of course you are still bouncing in and out of C and S.

Thanks for your input. Really interesting.

Tom

[Frizz B.]

The F Fund is 292 pt behind the S fund. The S fund is my focal pt. My range is between (280-290 lowto 310 to 320 high. If the S fund goes to 310 or more I probably will change to the F Fund. My S and C range was under 90 to over 115, my S and I was - 20 to +20. Between June and Dec this was a regular occurance. In early Dec the I fund went ahead and has yet to return. The dif between the S and C kept climbing until November, then it had a 80 - 110, later it climb to 85-120, I believe the low is around 100 and the high is 125, although it goes higher and lower you have to have a range that you will make your change and watch it to see if you need to change your range once in a while. That is why I have not worked with the I fund. Starting to look at a range of 10 to 35, now at 17 if it goes below 10 I might change to I. Will have to watch my other fund ranges to decide. It is a gamble and I only have a 9 month history to look at. I have not lost yet but if I go into a stock and all the others out preform the one I'm in, I could lose some shares if I decide that another fund becomes more appealing at that time. It is not a perfect system by far, but it is kool to keep track on my excel spread sheet and see how much $$ are gained and lost each day in what fund you could have been in.

This is what I will do, I will let you know when I am making a change. My $$ is in the C fund, just because it was 120 pts behind the S fund March 2. I have lost $$ to this point, we will see. March 30 S fund is 13.15 and March 2 was 13.27 (-.12) and the C Fund March 30 is 11.85 and March 2 is 12.07 (-22), likeTom said nothings perfect, everytime the Funds have lost money in the share prices the C fund gained on the S fund, not this time, andat the same time the F fund would also get closer. March30 F fund is 10.23 and March 2was 10.16, a gain of .07. So on March 1 when thereit came to a 314 pt diff you moved your account to the F Fund you would have made $$(Using the $100,000 rule, EASY TO CALCULATE, $100,000 /13.27 (S) = 7535 SHARES AND $100,000 / 10.16 (F) = 9842 SHARES.Next on March 9TH when the diff was 291 and you move the next day back to the S fund the differentialhit at 269. S- 12.97*7535=97739 A LOSS OF $2260 BUT THE F-10.28*9842=$101181 A GAIN OF $1181+ THE $2260 YOU WOULD HAVE LOST IF YOU STAYED IN THE S FUND A GAIN OF $3441. TAKE THE $101181 FROM THE F FUND AND DIVIDE IT BY THE SHARE PRICE FOR THAT DAY S- 12.97. $101181 /12.97=7801 S SHARES A GAIN OF 7801-7535, (STARTING SHARES) = 265 EXTRA SHARES OF STOCK IN THE S. MARCH 30 S-13.15*7801=$102585 AND IF YOU HAD STAYED IN THE F-10.23*9842=$100,688 ALOSS OF ONLY $492. I REALLY WISH I HAD DONE MORE CACULATIONS WITH THE F FUND, I WOULD OF HIT THIS GREAT RALLY FOR MY SHORT TERM TRADES. BUT LIKEI SAID, I JUST STARTED WITH THE EXPERIMENT AND STARTED WITH THE S AND I, THEN I ADDED THE C, NOW I AM USING PRIMARILY THE S AND F, WAITING FOR THE DIFFERENTIAL TO GET ABOVE 310 TO MAKE MY MOVE.

FRIZZB

[tsptalk]

Stick with it FrizzB. I think you are on to something. As I said before, I really like the idea of systems because you take the emotion and guesswork out making moves. You can probably see that based onmy indecisiveness lately.I have thought about introducing a systemI learned on an AOL message board. The guy who started now runs one of the most successful stock pick type newsletters in the U.S.

Back to your system.I created that "Member TSP Account Transactions" category that will allow our users to post their allocation and transaction. It would be a great way for you to show us your system in action.Here is the link if you are interested...http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_category.php?id=8

Thanks again,
Tom

[Frizz B.]

I am going to go there right now and do my posting.

[Frizz B.]

IF ANYONE IS INTERESTED IN MY SPREADSHEAT IN EXCEL I WOULD BE HAPPY TO SEND IT TO YOU BY EMAIL ON AN INSERT. IT HAS ALL THE CALCULATIONS IN IT ALLREADY. ALL YOU WOULD HAVE TO DO IS POST YOUR $$$ AMT IN THE BOX GIVEN. THEN WHEN THE MARKET POST THE DAILY SHARE PRICES COPY AND PASTE AND IT WILL DO ALL THE CALCULATIONS FOR YOU. THE SPREADSHEET HAS3 SEPERATE WORKSHEETS WITH DIFFERENT CALCULATIONS ON IT. (THIS IS MY FETISH, LOVE TO PLAY WITH SYSTEMS, WHICH I USE DIFFERENT SYSTEM EVERYTIME I GO TO THE CASINO BUT THEY NEVER SEEM TO WORK, BUT I KEEP ON THINKING OF NEW SYSTEMS, SO FAR THIS IS MY BEST.)

Tom, I would like to send it to you, if you want and I know you will understand it, actually simple.

The question I keep hearing is that the funds will eventually be equal, not the case. You have to keep adjusting your highs and lows.

MY SYSTEM WORKS LIKE THIS
1.SELL HIGH AND BUY LOW- When the market is doing well your highs will keep on getting higher, look at June 2, C, S, I were almost the same, then the S and I took off on the C, In Nov they started to have highs and lows with the F and C. In Dec the I fund took off of the S and has not come back, has gone to 60 pts ahead of S and down to 5 pts ahead but the S has not gone ahead, still trying to come up with my highs and lows for the I.
Frizz B.