Transfer 10/19 for 10/20/04

[tsptalk]

The dollar has come down pretty far, pretty quick. I could be completely wrong but since the I fund didn't seem to get the gains it probably should have on Monday, I expect a nice day for the I fund today. Hopefully we get it but because the dollar is due to rebound some,I will move 100% into the S fund effective tomorrow, 10/20.

As I mentioned in the email, it is a "wiggle" play. Not a necessary move by any means, just trying to avoid somepossible sluggishness we may see in the I fund if the dollar does rebound.

Still 50% S, 50% I fund today, 10/19,
100% S fund effective Wednesday 10/20

[TheProphet]

Tom,

I love your market comments... I think you are right on the money... They will not give Dollars for free on the streets of Paris or Munich... Dollar most rebounce up... getting out of the I Fund is good idea... 100 % on S is the place to be... the question is when to get out... the 28 th or the 29th... last time I did not get out the 6th of September...shame on me waiting till the 8th...

Good Luck... Profit from your Patience...

Leon

[clester]

I'm also going to move to all S fund. The weak dollar has really helped the I fund, but it does take huge swings sometimess. My guess is that the I will do good today. Euro stocks and japan way up this morning, so we may have some profit taking. The S fund stills needs to move up today. It needs to stay above the resistance level of about 12.83.
100% S fund starting tomorow.

[TheProphet]

I do not know much about the I Fund...Just about the corelacion with the US Dollar index... but I do not know how is it... I need to study more about it... Any recommendation ? Leon

[Spaf]

LK
The F fund "funkey" has been bobbling since September. From the first of September; 09-01=10.30, 10-19=10.38. Low=10.23 on 09-03. High= yesterday and today. The F is in fixed income securities. suppose to me better than a money market fund, and it pictures the US bond market.

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote:
I could be completely wrong but since the I fund didn't seem to get the gains it probably should have on Monday, I expect a nice day for the I fund today. Hopefully we get it but because the dollar is due to rebound some,I will move 100% into the S fund effective tomorrow, 10/20.
I'm not right often enough to let this one go:

Tuesday 10/19...
C fund -.11, S fund -.09, I fund +.14

I had a feeling yesterday's drop in the I fund was a bit too odd with the markets up like they were. Wednesday I will be 100% S.

:cool:

[creighton131]

good call !you sure hit that one right keep up the good work and thanks again for all of us money dummies:D

[clester]

The S fund is really making me nervous. I'm 100% for tomorow, but I may go 100% I for Thursday. The I fund chart looks a lot better and above all moving averages. 12.83 is a resistance level for the S fund. We could break through that level tomorow.

[clester]

I fund with 50 day ma

[clester]

Today has the look of not doing well. We could do a reversal, but we broke some key support levels. S&P below 1100, 10 T-Bond below 4% (Economic indicator), oil up, Spitzer effect.
If we close down the S fund will break its support level of 12.83. How low will we go? Think I'll move to F fund. Looking strickly at the charts it is trending up and making new highs.

tsptalk wrote:
tsptalk wrote:
I could be completely wrong but since the I fund didn't seem to get the gains it probably should have on Monday, I expect a nice day for the I fund today. Hopefully we get it but because the dollar is due to rebound some,I will move 100% into the S fund effective tomorrow, 10/20.
I'm not right often enough to let this one go:

Tuesday 10/19...
C fund -.11, S fund -.09, I fund +.14

I had a feeling yesterday's drop in the I fund was a bit too odd with the markets up like they were. Wednesday I will be 100% S.

:cool:



TSP,

The U.S. Dollar is getting crushed today. Does that matter to the I Fund?

:?. Oz

Did you verify that your change went through? I just called and my G fund transfer did not go through and they have no record of it ever happening. Check and make sure. I'm still in the S and didn't want to be.

[tsptalk]

Ozzy wrote:
TSP,

The U.S. Dollar is getting crushed today. Does that matter to the I Fund?

:?. Oz

That should help the I fund. I wonder how much however since they gave us that 14 cents yesterday.

[tsptalk]

tsptakedown wrote:
Did you verify that your change went through? I just called and my G fund transfer did not go through and they have no record of it ever happening. Check and make sure. I'm still in the S and didn't want to be.
Someone else just posted the same thing. Mine seemed to go through OK. Only one time did I have that problem and it seemed to straighten itself out. Check your account periodically today.

[Ozzy]

tsptalk wrote:
Ozzy wrote:
TSP,

The U.S. Dollar is getting crushed today. Does that matter to the I Fund?

:?. Oz

That should help the I fund. I wonder how much however since they gave us that 14 cents yesterday. U.S. dollar down today a average of 1% against the major foreign currencies. Your reason to get out of the I Fund was because the U.S. dollar was going to rebound. It would seem by your own reasoning that if the U.S. dollar got weaker the I fund would move higher???? :D

[tsptalk]

Pat wrote:
tsptalk wrote:
Ozzy wrote:
TSP,

The U.S. Dollar is getting crushed today. Does that matter to the I Fund?

:?. Oz

That should help the I fund. I wonder how much however since they gave us that 14 cents yesterday. U.S. dollar down today a average of 1% against the major foreign currencies. Your reason to get out of the I Fund was because the U.S. dollar was going to rebound. It would seem by your own reasoning that if the U.S. dollar got weaker the I fund would move higher???? :D

It did help the I fund, the EAFE index was down .90% in foreign currency today but only .40% in U.S. dollars so it could have been worse for the I fund. http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html (http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html)

Then add the readjusting.The I fund was down 6 cents. That's what I meant by "I wonder how much however since they gave us that 14 cents yesterday." That 14 cents was an error correction in my opinion, and today theyreadjusted again. I got lucky but I saw it coming.

The dollar being so weak Wednesday means that the I fund should benefit tomorrow for more readjusting. I wish I took advantage of it and got back in the I fund for Thursday, but I didn't. Watch that I fund tomorrow...boing!

The dollar should reboundin the short term so no sense hanging out there with the U.S. markets ready to move up. When the dollar rebounds, I'll go back to some I fund.

[Mike]

Tom, what buy-in level are you looking at for getting back into the I-fund?

I'm waiting for it to drop back to $13.40ish.

[clester]

My transfer did not go through for Wed. I should have been 100% S, but was 50 s 50 I. It cost me some bucks! Is there any recourse? That sucks. By the way my SSN end in a 9.

[tsptalk]

Mike wrote:
Tom, what buy-in level are you looking at for getting back into the I-fund?

I'm waiting for it to drop back to $13.40ish.

Mike,
I watch the dollar more than the I fund share price. The dollar is due for a rebound so I'll stay with US funds for now. But like oil, you never know how long they can go up, or down...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/dollar102004.gif
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com (http://www.decisionpoint.com)

[puertorico]

TOM Wrote
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I will move 100% into the S fund effective tomorrow, 10/20.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

HERE u go again,good move ;)

!!de fence !! dee fence !! defence !! :D

[clester]

S fund up 12 cents. Good call. We held the support levels on the S&P. Will we keep moving up? I think the Tech stocks helped the S fund today. The big caps have been getting killed. Spitzer on the insurance stocks, earnings, oil.
Oil may not be hitting small caps as bad? What do you think going into election. Will we be flat until its over?

Looking forward to your comments for tomorow. The I fund may get a bounce tomorow. I'm 100% S.;):D:^

[smedlap]

I guess I placed this in the wrong forum but Isecond yourappropriate comment clester-

"Nice call Tom on the recommended move to S fund. I compliment you on your recommendations, supporting informationand a number of other post contributers. It has been a difficult market to play. Oil price increases changed what was a well defined playing field.

I see the experts espect the dollar to continue to deteriorate against the EURO which gives a slight advantage to the I Fund, however I see Asia holding it back to a good 2nd place finish against the S Fund. I see good US small business earningsfor 3qtr, oil remaining at mid $50 range until after Xmas, no realmarket moves until the elections and ifBush is re-elected, the ralley you havebeen expecting to follow.I don't see C fund making more than 5% by 31 Dec due to the weights of oil and the election. Your thoughts as I see theS fund of small / mid size business activities as continued best play. With the I fund, even though Europe is betterpostured than the US, Asia is not due to oil dependence?

Again thanks"

[tsptalk]

Thanks folks. I won't let it get to my head because when I do, money usually comes out of my account. :shock:

Welcome smedlap!

[Mike]

Okay Tom, I'll be relying on you to post that dollar chart in your market comments section as soon as the dollar busts out of its slump. :^

Two good calls in a row... I might have to pay attention to you again. :shock::D

[tsptalk]

Mike wrote:
Two good calls in a row... I might have to pay attention to you again. :shock::D

Thanks Mike-

Buteven a broken clock isright twice a day.

Just like clock work, I'm right maybe 2 or 3 times year. Come back in few months. I'll be due again. ;)

[puertorico]

What's cooking for tomorrow ?



I like to get in,but I do not find and excuse yet :shock:

Somebody getting in....:D

[puertorico]

20nty min to get in to the game for Tuesday...:P

[puertorico]

The dollar still down !

15-Min to play-

actually 100-G...:cool:

[puertorico]

tHInking to put some in C-FUND 40-C 60-G

10-MIN COUNTDOWN...:D

[tsptalk]

Well PR? What did you do? Don't leave us hanging. :)

[Spaf]

Tom I hope PR is OK! Cus when I looked at the market this morning, it looked like underground bamboo spikes.

[puertorico]

JE JE JE DONT LET US HANGING...:D

sOrry about that ,ok

I DIT IT

50-G 30-C 10-S 10-I...:shock:

[Mike]

...assuming of course that you had anything in G to move to the other funds after the gov't raided it. :shock:

[clester]

I love the seasonality charts you post. Can you post one for the wilshire 4500 and the eafe.

Thanks

[cowboy]

Mike wrote:
...assuming of course that you had anything in G to move to the other funds after the gov't raided it. :shock:


You kind of lost me here Mike are you saying that everyone in G lost $ because the government borrowed against it. :%

[eukrate]

Tom -
I think you're missing a good bet here - the dollar will keep dropping until the election -my guess - so efa will continue up-biased.

[tsptalk]

eukrate wrote:
Tom -
I think you're missing a good bet here - the dollar will keep dropping until the election -my guess - so efa will continue up-biased.
If the current support level doesn't hold, I will have to rethink that.

[cowboy]

eukrate wrote:

Tom -
I think you're missing a good bet here - the dollar will keep dropping until the election -my guess - so efa will continue up-biased.


What are you basing your theory on that the dollar will drop! I'm thinking the dollar is meeting some resistance levels according to the chart. Just a thought but if the market is ahead of the news then the election is already written into the market maybe the reason for the big hike yesterday.

[eukrate]

Trade deficit pressures and anemic payrole growth.

[puertorico]

WHAT In the menu for thursday

I'dont like thursdays market,

may I hit the road to G for tomorow...:shock:

45min.to make a transfer...:D

[smine]

Maybe me too. Keep the money I made yesterday and hope to sell today at a high.

[Rod]

puertorico wrote:
WHAT In the menu for thursday

I'dont like thursdays market,

may I hit the road to G for tomorow...:shock:

45min.to make a transfer...:D

You're absolutely correct. Thursdays usually aren't good. I'll be 100G.

[Mike]

cowboy wrote:
Mike wrote:
...assuming of course that you had anything in G to move to the other funds after the gov't raided it. :shock:


You kind of lost me here Mike are you saying that everyone in G lost $ because the government borrowed against it. :%

It was a joke about the gov't raiding the G fund. ;)

[cowboy]

Mike wrote:
cowboy wrote:
Mike wrote:
...assuming of course that you had anything in G to move to the other funds after the gov't raided it. :shock:


You kind of lost me here Mike are you saying that everyone in G lost $ because the government borrowed against it. :%

It was a joke about the gov't raiding the G fund. ;)



Gotchya Bud! :^Government should be much happier if everyone retains the gains that are made in the other funds! I see were possibly looking at a Bull Market so we should make up some of that measily 1 cent gains for good old Uncle Sam.

[puertorico]

actually 100-g today

looking forward the stock for tomorrow

30-min to decide where is the money c s or i...:D

[puertorico]

15-min deadline for transfer

Thinking about ....

C- fund have more room to go up

S-IS GOOD TOO

I- TO HIGH TO BUY

I WILLMAKE A CHOICE between C AND S...:D

[TheProphet]

I am on the black... in green territory... I will move to 100% G Fund for the weekend prior to election (terrorist attack over the weekend isalways a possibility)...election day, interest rate increase... winter oil prices etc... too smokey...I belief the market is on BULLISH trend... but I rather stay on 100% G Fundfor few days see results and way for clear air...too smoky now...need more clear air...

[smine]

I'm with PR....split the difference! G50 C25 S25....I is too high.

[puertorico]

ready for friday

70-C 30-S :cool:

[TheProphet]

http://www.geocities.com/earn100kplus/TSP.html?1098979911046

[puertorico]

puertorico wrote:
ready for friday

70-C 30-S :cool:

Look like the transfer was not in effect

Todays my account access still in 100-G

WONDER WHY ?:shock:BY THE WAY LUCKY ME...:D

[puertorico]

the rollercoster may be in his way...:s

[smine]

Well I'm still at G50 C25 S25. If I had gotten thru TSP I may have put some in I as the international markets look lower than yesterday. TSP sure isn't customer friendly when we want it to be! It's OK. I am happy with my allocations.

[TheProphet]

I do not know if mine when into effect... it shows the same as 10/27/2004 Hope it went through... :*

Anyone knows or called TSP ?

Leon

[puertorico]

smine todays look like it gonna fall but then going up and flat
everythings for menu today:D

IKATTENG is possible my transfer goin to be in effect
becouse the day of my account access is wednesday 27
today is 29
close market. May they are late or something wrong.

what ever let's see todays what ends when market close...:D

[puertorico]

is the transfer went in effect I will be monday c and s

if not went in effect my transfer will still G

i DOND worry today to much but worry about monday
rollercoster...:(:D

[puertorico]

I just recibe the tsp confirmation email

today 70-C 30-S and Monday the same :?:D

[TheProphet]

Me Too...

[JSRoss01]

Don't you think that if there is a regime change from Bush to Kerry the I fund would go wild?