Market Talk

[Spaf]

Another up day. Good! Oil closed out at $52.84. Still high, hopefully it will go down more. I still see the volitality in the market, and will wait for it to calm down. Allocations holding at 90% G, and 10% F.

Careful! :)

[clester]

S up 5 cents, I down 3 cents. IBM should help for tomorow.
Looks like we may be heading back up. Lots of earnings and economic data tomorow though. 50% S 50% I.

[tsptalk]

clester wrote:
I down 3 cents.
That surprised me. Looked like the EFA was up .40% and the dollar was down. Maybe they did a little readjusting?? :*

[Spaf]

Well Tom. I thought the $ was up.
I switched from DSL to cable. So far I've stuck my foot on the cable line twice and been dropped online!!!
Anyway, It's time we were thinking about Thanksgiving and Christmas! I've got my letter to Santa all prepared.
See attachment! :^

[Cinderella]

Spaf, Hope that Christmas wish comes true........

[Dakota]

can anyone explain how the I fund showed to be down in the index but gained .14 in tsp shares column?

[Spaf]

Thanks Cinderella! Dakota, I ain't got a clue (typo maybe?).

I have a concern over the market's rather violent ups and downs since Sept. 22nd. From mid August to Sept 21st we had a steady rise from the lows, and then this volitality sets in, see attached S&P chart with the red arrow section. We have had some good earnings from IBM, TI and others vs investigations and crude over $50.

Does the market know something? Or, isthe marketjust flustrated?

I'm game to play the market, but since Sept 22nd I haven't seen anything worth playing. My 2 cents. If others see something I'm missing, please talk!

Careful! :?

[tsptalk]

Dakota wrote:
can anyone explain how the I fund showed to be down in the index but gained .14 in tsp shares column?
We talked about that in another forum. I'll cut & paste the exchange...

FundSurfer wrote:
The good thing is that the TSP index of the I fund did well today despite the index being down 0.2%. Interesting to me is how different they ended up today. I usually follow the indexes on Yahoo, but that doesn't always hit the mark. I wonder what causes the difference.
Believe it or not, because the markets are open all night, there is some guesswork involved on the part of the EAFE index managers. It was odd to me that the I fund was down Monday so i thought they'd make adjustments today, and they did. That was why in the comments I said...

"The I fund may do well today. I think I'll get out for tomorrow....
...But something is happening that is makes me want to make a transfer this morning. The dollar has been scraping the bottom of its recent trend channel (see chart below) so I wouldn't be surprised if it has a little bounce here soon. That means the I fund may not be the best place to be...after today. I actually expect a nice pop in the I fund today so, if I am right, today may be the day to step aside. I'll jump back in if the dollar moves up some."

We discussed this a while back if you are interested. Here is the link...http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum14/93.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum14/93.html)

Tom

[Mike]

The market turned volatile because it's getting mixed messages. There were some solid earnings reports, but oil continues to move up (although it dipped a bit the other day due to profit-taking). The election is now just two weeks away, and all of the polls indicate it is too close to call (although it now appears that Bush is starting to open up a small lead).

I'm getting this odd feeling in the back of my mind - that the market is about to rally. Is anyone else getting that feeling?

[Rod]

Mike wrote:
I'm getting this odd feeling in the back of my mind - that the market is about to rally. Is anyone else getting that feeling?

That's called your "gut" which isn't very popular around here, so I was told.;)

[Mike]

Well I have a contrarian gut. :D

[Spaf]

Earnings down, oil up, sentiment in doldrums, stats say short, market flustrated.
Oh boy! :( and it's only Wednesday...........

[clester]

I agree earnings down, Spitzer sueing everyone, 10 T bond below 4%, oil up, breaking key support levels 1100 on S&P etc. I think we may go down from here. The question is how far?

[tsptalk]

In today's comments I wrote,

"I would love to see another rally bust out but something tells me we might need one more washout sell off to bring a little fear back to the market. If we do see something like that it may be fast and furious and too quick to even make a play on. So I will stay invested knowing the odds favor an upward market over the intermediate term."

I hope that today's intraday100 point drop in the Dow was the "fast and furious"drop and that the reversal we are seeing is the "too quick to even make a play on." That would make it real easy on us.

[Cinderella]

Amen !

[Dakota]

locked in at !00% S for thursday :*Think I'll be 25g 35c 40s for a few days after that. I fund is scary right now. Wissh I knew what I was doing

[Spaf]

As of Wednesday the market ended mixed. Dow dn 10+, NASD up 10+. Talk is high energy prices will impact economic growth, 4.5% for this year, 3.5% for 05 and this didn't help sentiment. Oil closed at $54.41 with reported low inventories. Stat wise the F fund (chart attached) has 20 day moving averages below pricing, and P-SAR indicating long. The stats for the other 3 stock funds were negative. However, the whipsaw of the current trends (Since Sept.22) could quickly change stats. Short term the market appears to be undecided. No clear picture is seen for the long term, being too cloudy.
When it's cloudy it's best to be on instruments IFR, one could be upside down flying by gut feelings VFR; my opinion!
;)

[clester]

I like using the actual price of the fund. The F fund is, as you say, in a buy status. above 20day ma, 50 day ma, 200 day ma. The only thing about the F is that it usually makes small moves. I'm 100% F for tomorow because of the technical chart info. I may move back into stocks for friday if tomorow looks good.

[tsptalk]

Dakota wrote:
locked in at !00% S for thursday :*Think I'll be 25g 35c 40s for a few days after that. I fund is scary right now. Wissh I knew what I was doing
The I fund was down 6 centstoday (Wednesday)and the dollar was down big. Watch the I fund Thursday. I think it is going to fly. Too late to do anything about it but I wish I had something in there.

[Spaf]

??Know of any web site that tells what the dollar is doing??

[tsptalk]

Spaf wrote:
??Know of any web site that tells what the dollar is doing??
This one shows other currencies compared to the dollar. If they are up, the dollar is down and vice versa. It updates during the day. http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex (http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex)

This one updates only after the close of the market and shows how the EAFE index did in foreign currency and in U.S. dollars so you can see how the dollar affected the I fund. http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html (http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html)

[Spaf]

1. Thanks Tom!

2. I noticed Pats comments about "Hold and Hopers". I wanted to add something! I know stats can go any way, depending on the (?). At random I chose the first of the month from May to October, 2004, this year to date.
During this time period the TSP funds indicate: G=10.37 to 10.57 a +0.20, F=10.37 to 10.29 a -0.08, C=11.98 to 12.00 a +0.02, S=13.21 to 13.18 a -0.03, and I=13.45 to 13.62 a +0.17.
If one was an expert, the 3-4 market cycles,since Feburary, timing could have produced some more profits i.e., buying low and selling high. The problem is that the majority of TSP members are not stock market experts.The cycles are like waves trending downward, and not like therelative smooth rises in 2003.
I would say that we are in a period of bearish uncertainty. Maybe Yes,Maybe No? However, I am a member of TSP like the rest of the folks. I'll neveroffer criticism, or put downsome one elses decision, opinion. The problem is that some folks takeit personal that people disagree. That's a constitutional right to disagree and speek freely. I still remember the sting of my investment company telling me to invest in technology during 2000 (or lack of). I learned my lesson! I'll take advice, but, my decisions are my own!The opinion of memebers on this site are appreciated, no arguements, nuf said! :)

[Mike]

It's possible to disagree and be tactful. Some people apparently have yet to master this concept.

There's nothing wrong with buying and holding, provided that you know how to manage your risk and don't make the mistake of bailing at the bottom. People that did that lost a lot of money in the last bear market, while those who stayed in eventually recouped their losses.

[Spaf]

Precisely! You want to bail out when the airplane has altitude, not when it's on the ground.

My stats and sentiment is keeping me in the G and F funds. On October 8th my signals went conservative from the mixed eco picture, oil, steep downs (violativity),20D moving avg, and the P-SAR.

My S&P bear bull meter: Bear 1060........^........1140 Bull is at 1106. So I stay put tillsystem (stats + sentiment) says otherwise. If the marketmoves positive, I feel that the S fund would be a doable fund.

Careful! ;)

[Mike]

C-fund bounced off its recent low yesterday. S and I both went up as well. I'd like to see the I-fund drop so I can buy back into the fund, but it isn't happening yet (blech).

Oh well, at least I'll make some money on this new upward trend we have. :^

[Spaf]

Mike what trend are you seeing my friend?

[Spaf]

As Tom is posting "roll the bones". The market uncertainty risk is to high for me. I can snuggle in the G and F funds till they (the market) unsorts their problems, and then maybe we can play again.

Uncertainty prevails! :*

[Mike]

I call it the "short-term market rises on hot air" trend. The more I talk about it, the more hot air there is, and thus, the more upward push there is on the market. :D

This will prove I'm becoming a market geek. :P

I see a mini-trend (read: short-term!) in the C-fund. Over the past month or so, it has dropped down to around $11.70 a few times... and promptly bounces off it and goes back up. The smart people would call this the "support level", I think. Anyway, when I saw the price dropping down to that level again, I decided to add to my C-fund holdings. I also added some to the S fund, since I recognize that it has gone up (and sadly down) more than C (thus, more money can be made on it). However, I can't really spot a support level for that fund - it's just too volatile. My best guess is somewhere in the $12.65-12.75 range.

Maybe I'm finally coming around to the arguments made by the timers - that sometimes, you just gotta go for the shorter-term strategy to make any money in markets such as these... :shock:

[TheProphet]

Sapf,

The stocktraders almanac said... buy on Halloween and sell on April Fool... They belief those are the best 6 months for the market...

Leon

[TheProphet]

RULE #1: NEVER EVERSELL LOOSING... !!! DO NOT BAIL AT THE BOTTOM... !!! WAIT QITH PATIENCE (PRFITABLE VIRTUE) THE MARKET WILL REBOUNCE UP... :^

[TheProphet]

Sapf,

I love your indicators... seems they are working great... :^

Leon

[tsptalk]

Mike wrote:
Maybe I'm finally coming around to the arguments made by the timers - that sometimes, you just gotta go for the shorter-term strategy to make any money in markets such as these... :shock:

lol. It's hard to come to this forum and not try to play the wiggles.

Good luck!

[Dakota]

Don't see how the I fund can get much higher so I'm out of it for now. did good yesterday, by luck because of last minute rally.

Monday I will be 40g 40f 20s just for a little action I can see the s fund having room for making a little but not confident enough to stay 100% s. I pretty much agree with spaf. He's pretty smart and we can't be playing with too much at risk until we see a good pullback. at least I made some yesterday but was fortunate because I couldn't wake in time the day before to change.(actually I was in court).wish everyone luck. will be watching.


looks like I made a bad judgement for today, almost lost all my earnings from :'yesterday. c and s kicked us. Still take a slight chance on S, but won't bet the farm.

Brighter days ahead, I hope. 40g 40f 20s monday, will evaluate tuesday morning for the rest of the week. Good luck :#

[Mike]

Oil surged to a new record (again), and that sent the markets plummeting. C-fund took a nosedive and is at its lowest point since August 30th. :shock:

[tsptalk]

Not much good came out of today except that Wednesday's lows held on the S&P 500.

[learning]

Spaf wrote:
I'll neveroffer criticism, or put downsome one elses decision, opinion. The problem is that some folks takeit personal that people disagree. That's a constitutional right to disagree and speek freely. I still remember the sting of my investment company telling me to invest in technology during 2000 (or lack of). I learned my lesson! I'll take advice, but, my decisions are my own!The opinion of memebers on this site are appreciated, no arguements, nuf said! :)



Amen

However, Please critic my ideas. I put things on the board to get other peoples ideas and I will respond on the board. No person can hurt my feelings because I'm LEARNING. We do not know people here really personally and this is just a great forum to learn. (Thanks Tom) Thanks Spaf:D. I just don't ever want anybody following my ideas. For that is all they are and many are wrong:*

[smine]

bit bad today....usual pattern of gain then loss. that's why Rod's idea may have merit..

[Mike]

If I was anywhere near retirement with this market climate, I think I'd lose my hair. :shock:

[clester]

Maybe this is the pain we were looking for. Hope we don't drop much further. Maybe some bargain hunters will come into the market Monday.

[smine]

Being "near " retirement is relative, Mike!! Also it's good to know you have hair :D

[tsptalk]

clester wrote:
Maybe this is the pain we were looking for.
Me too. If not pain then frustration. This should help that sentiment indicator.

[Mike]

smine wrote:
Being "near " retirement is relative, Mike!! Also it's good to know you have hair :D
There's nothing much relative about ~40 years. :^

Indeed, I have a full head of hair - I'm banking on that one to assist with the female sentiment, if you know what I mean. :D