How will you handle the 2 transactions if it goes through?

[12%ayear]

Love to see what people will do. Some will just not trade, some will try , and some will be confused. So lets see what our forum will do.

[BlueMax]

I would most likely follow Sentiment Survey with some variations, while waiting to see if Ebb could adapt his system to the requirements.

The whole time fumming about the "manage your own account lie" we were fed.

[CountryBoy]

We've got some pretty sharp people on this board, me not being one of them. We may not be as flexible and even less nimble, but I feel like something will develop that we can use, but make no mistake, we are going to be handcuffed and may be forced to sit in the G or go to a Life Cycle Fund ie L2040, until our month in jail is over. A lot will depend on the type of market we are facing.

CB

[DrFaustus]

I just read "Invest like a Shark" - I will try to incorporate some of what I read there.

[FUTURESTRADER]

take $50k loan OUT of TSP (hear that, Barclay?) and sell more S&P options credit spreads. Up 25% in past 5 months, minimal management time, +6.5% this month, +2.5% worst month.

[350zCommTech]

take $50k loan OUT of TSP (hear that, Barclay?) and sell more S&P options credit spreads. Up 25% in past 5 months, minimal management time, +6.5% this month, +2.5% worst month.

Or take out a $50K TSP loan and short the crap out of Barclays and the financials.

[ATCJeff]

Or take out a $50K TSP loan and short the crap out of Barclays and the financials.

Wouldn't do that. Financials will be up huge in 2008. My best guess is close to 30%! I'll save this post and revisit it in Decmeber 08.:D

[tsptalk]

I would most likely follow Sentiment Survey with some variations...
The survey system does tell us we can outperform the market (+22.86% so far in 2007) with some well timed trades, but without making excessive transfers (16 total in 2007).

In 2006 it was up 28%, coincidentally also making only 16 transfers.

If you do use it, I'd suggest keeping it low. I have a feeling the more we push it, the more it could change. Either with people trying to manipulate the results by voting many times, or not answering correctly to try to mess with us, etc. That's why, while I do talk about the new signals, I don't pound the table on this system. It is based on us being wrong (the dumb money) and that might not be taken well.

That said, don't count us out yet. In an email from Greg Long (TSP director) he told me, "You know where I stand, but we are willing to listen to opposing views and different approaches. "

It's a start.

[350zCommTech]

Wouldn't do that. Financials will be up huge in 2008. My best guess is close to 30%! I'll save this post and revisit it in Decmeber 08.:D


30%? The super fund fell through for a reason.

IMO, we're about to witness Enron X 1000. The financials will have to come up with another scam soon.:D

[Spaf]

The 2 transfer system.

Here are 2 possible plans that come to mind: Plan A, retired. Plan B not retired.

See how the 2 transfer system works?? If it doesn't work go to A or B.

A. Option: Transfer the funds out of TSP to a deferred account with a internet broker, or your choise.

B. Option: Change allocations with TSP to min. 5%. Manually make payroll deposits to a deferred account with a internet broker, or your choise.

[ATCJeff]

The survey system does tell us we can outperform the market (+22.86% so far in 2007) with some well times trades, but without making excessive transfers (16 total in 2007).

In 2006 it was up 28%, coincidentally also making only 16 transfers.

If you do use it, I'd suggest keeping it low. I have a feeling the more we push it, the more it could change. Either with people trying to manipulate the results by voting many times, or not answering correctly to try to mess with us, etc. That's why, while I do talk about the new signals, I don't pound the table on this system. It is based on us being wrong (the dumb money) and that might not be taken well.

That said, don't count us out yet. In an email from Greg Long (TSP director) he told me, "You know where I stand, but we are willing to listen to opposing views and different approaches. "

It's a start.

Just wait till TSP sees a huge number of IFT's on Friday mornings then the men in black will come and visit Tom.:D

[Bullitt]

The super fund fell through for a reason.

But was the superfund really a bust? It gave investors hope and caused people take a step back to think which may have prevented a mass market selloff. At the time it was nothing more than a knee jerk reaction but helped that it was endorsed by Paulson. When first mentioned it was to be worth $100 Billion. Even if it were to happen today, it would only need a fraction of that.

[Birchtree]

I'm sure I will do just fine with a 2 count IFT/month. The more money working the greater the potential. And there is only really one way to get more money and that is do your time in grade. TSP is a fiduciary account. I've earned my leverage and now I will make it work to my advantage. Gosh, the superlative bull manure smells good in here. Snort.

[350zCommTech]

But was the superfund really a bust? It gave investors hope and caused people take a step back to think which may have prevented a mass market selloff. At the time it was nothing more than a knee jerk reaction but helped that it was endorsed by Paulson. When first mentioned it was to be worth $100 Billion. Even if it were to happen today, it would only need a fraction of that.

I guess you're right. Especially with foreigners like China coming to the rescue, they probably didn't need it.

But back to the topic of the new trade restriction. How about using just the 50dma in combination with the RSI and the MACD? 12 trades/year would be more enough for this method.

[pogo]

I'm sure I will do just fine with a 2 count IFT/month. The more money working the greater the potential. And there is only really one way to get more money and that is do your time in grade. TSP is a fiduciary account. I've earned my leverage and now I will make it work to my advantage. Gosh, the superlative bull manure smells good in here. Snort. thank god i was never in a foxhole with you birchtree,you remind me of someone at work all they every worry about is themself never looking at the whole picture just their picture. thanks for the help with our problem with the thrift board!!!!!

[Birchtree]

pogo,

The pleasure is all mine. Lots of figgy pudding for you.

[SkyPilot]

If we get stuck with the "terrible two", Birch's DCA approach makes a great deal of sense. While I have improved my returns during the years when I could move them around, I was also very happy with all those years just riding the C fund.

It's time to employ the "Serenity Prayer" here folks...

Peace to all....:)

[tsptalk]

Just wait till TSP sees a huge number of IFT's on Friday mornings then the men in black will come and visit Tom.:D
Aha! I knew that wasn't santa's helpers. They lied to me. :laugh:

[Rod]

Well, I haven't IFT'd since July.

So, I guess I've already conditioned myself.;)

:D

[Idaho Dave]

I'll reduce my contributions to the 5% matched, and put the rest into an account I can trade at my leisure. Maybe there will be a charge for trading, but at least I'll know the amount. Come to think of it, I'll know the price of what I'm buying, too. No offense to 350z--you're great at estimating the FV--but if the folks on this board don't know for sure whether we will get a FV, I don't have a chance. Reason 3--real time trading.

[James48843]

Never give up.

Winston Churchill.

By the way, TSPSHAREHOLDER.ORG newsletter number 5 is about to be sent later today. Good stuff. Watch your mailbox soon. And, by the way,

Never, never, never, never give in.

[tspgo_com]

As January 2, 2008, I will be following the Buy and Sell Signals for the S-Fund and I-Fund as triggered by the slope charts. Year to date the C-Fund has triggered 17 Signals with a return of 10.34% (C-Fund). The S-Fund has triggered 14 signals with a return of 12.09% (S-Fund). The I-Fund has triggered 18 signals with a return of 25.16% (I-Fund).
The average number of IFT's for 2007 were as follows:

Fund === I-Fund === S-Fund === C-Fund
January === 2 === 1 === 3
February === 0 === 0 === 1
March === 2 === 1 === 2
April === 0 === 0 === 2
May === 3 === 1 === 0
June === 2 === 2 === 1
July === 2 === 2 === 2
August === 0 === 0 === 1
September === 3 === 3 === 2
October === 1 === 1 === 1
November === 0 === 0 === 0
December === 3 === 2 === 2

Total === 18 === 13 === 17
Ave/Month === 1.5 === 1.08 === 1.42

[12%ayear]

As January 2, 2008, I will be following the Buy and Sell Signals for the S-Fund and I-Fund as triggered by the slope charts. Year to date the C-Fund has triggered 17 Signals with a return of 10.34% (C-Fund). The S-Fund has triggered 14 signals with a return of 12.09% (S-Fund). The I-Fund has triggered 18 signals with a return of 25.16% (I-Fund).
The average number of IFT's for 2007 were as follows:

Fund === I-Fund === S-Fund === C-Fund
January === 2 === 1 === 3
February === 0 === 0 === 1
March === 2 === 1 === 2
April === 0 === 0 === 2
May === 3 === 1 === 0
June === 2 === 2 === 1
July === 2 === 2 === 2
August === 0 === 0 === 1
September === 3 === 3 === 2
October === 1 === 1 === 1
November === 0 === 0 === 0
December === 3 === 2 === 2

Total === 18 === 13 === 17
Ave/Month === 1.5 === 1.08 === 1.42
It seems to me that you will need more than the 2 IFT to meet your system.

[tspgo_com]

It seems to me that you will need more than the 2 IFT to meet your system.

I will be using only one fund (now the I-Fund). If during the year the S-Fund becomes stronger than the I-Fund then we will move the S-Fund. I will use the following chart to determine which one is stronger: http://www.tspgo.com/images/00tsprate.gif

Thank you 12%ayear for all your contribution to this board.

[McDuck]

thank god i was never in a foxhole with you birchtree,you remind me of someone at work all they every worry about is themselves, never looking at the whole picture just their picture. thanks for the help with our problem with the thrift board!!!!!

Birch, I am also disappointed with what you said.

[McDuck]

I'll reduce my contributions to the 5% matched, and put the rest into an account I can trade at my leisure.

Me too!

[Birchtree]

Greg,

I learned long ago it's impossible to please everyone - so I've stopped trying. I'm satisfied with my balance that has taken me many years to accumulate and because I earned my leverage over time I'm now prepared to use that leverage to my advantage. Two IFTs a month pushing over $600K around will be just fine and rewarding. No one ever said it was going to be easy and you can't spend percentages only dollars.

Dennis - permabull #1

[Sonic]

I will spread it out beginning of the month. Then half way go strong with C,S, or I funds or just jump to G fund if market looks bear. In reality, this two ift a month will not work for me and most likely go to an L fund. This is frustrating situation!!

[GGal]

Are they seriously going to send letters this month?

I guess Ebb will get a letter? As will others here?

I've just been sitting put mostly.....the bouncing ball was confusing me.

GGAL

[fabijo]

I'll be doing what I started doing sometime in the middle of the year. I'm 100% long in the market as long as the 75 day EMA is above the 180 day EMA. I'll decide between the C, S, and I every couple of weeks based on which one has been exhibiting the most volatility for 5 weeks. I measure the volatility by taking the standard deviation (in Excel, the command is STDEV() ) of each fund for the previous 27 trading days. This method works well, but is scary to keep up with when the market is going nuts like it has been since July.

[hessian]

Does anybody know - The FR "Interim Rule" takes effect on Jan 07, it seems. Can we do 3 IFTs before the 7th, and not have them count against us? Not that I plan to do this - just wondering? :cheesy:

Say we try 4 or 5 IFTs in Jan, does this trigger a letter - and as a result - we can no longer make "electronic IFTs" (on the website). Doe this mean until until April (as I recall they said)? - then we can only IFT via mail (snail-mail) for the next couple months? :notrust:

Or, is it just until that particular month ends - then we will be able to electronic IFT again on the website, the next month? Any indications or guesses?? :nuts:

[alevin]

Hessian, the way I read it, you'd have to do snailmail til April if they shut you down.

[12%ayear]

So far nobody received a letter. For them to put the Jan.7th into play sounds like a bunch of crap. They needed to notify the TSPers, which they never did. I think it will not happen. The other issue is the 2 transactions which is still not official.

[hessian]

So far nobody received a letter. For them to put the Jan.7th into play sounds like a bunch of crap. They needed to notify the TSPers, which they never did. I think it will not happen. The other issue is the 2 transactions which is still not official.

Hey thanks! Hey was that a bird? No, it was a plane! No, who was that Mild-mannered Monied gent to the rescue? It was Money Man!
VR
:D

[12%ayear]

Done Deal..........Q2. What are the new restrictions on interfund transfers?
The Thrift Savings Plan will implement restrictions on the number of interfund transfers a participant can make per month in order to curb frequent trading and its associated costs to TSP participants. However, the TSP does want to provide the opportunity for participants to rebalance their accounts and to permit unrestricted access to the Government Securities Investment (G) Fund. Accordingly, the restrictions would be as follows:

Participants can make two (2) interfund transfers per calendar month. After that, they may only move money from the Fixed Income Index Investment (F) Fund, the Common Stock Index Investment (C) Fund, the Small Capitalization Stock Index Investment (S) Fund, the International Stock Index Investment (I) Fund, and the L Funds to the G Fund.
We will count the interfund transfer based on its process date, not the date the interfund transfer was requested.
If your first or second interfund transfer in a month moves money only to the G Fund, it still counts toward your two (2) interfund transfers per month limit.Q3. How will these restrictions affect me?
Based on their current behavior, these restrictions would have no impact on the investment activity of 99% of our participants.

Q4. When will the restrictions be implemented?
The restrictions will be announced in the annual TSP participant statement mailing which is scheduled for February 2008. We anticipate they will take effect in April 2008. http://www.fedweek.com/content/hfi/showpage1.php?title=2008-01-02

[alevin]

12%, my apologies for posting in your thread yesterday instead of here on this topic, this is the more appropriate location for what I had to say. It was not my intent to set anyone off.

In common with most here, I'm not thrilled about the proposal, having just gotten started in frequent trading (reasonably successfully) shortly before this all began coming to a head. Right now I'm more concerned about market fundamentals than charting so fairly inactive and indecisive about doing anything for weeks now.

Since this is the place for discussion about Plan B, I will say that, like plenty of others on this thread, I'm trying to figure out a backup plan if things don't go our way. To do that, I have to interpret as best I can from the written material what they really intend, so I can develop a coping strategy accordingly. I don't want to get caught flat-footed and unprepared when/if it actually happens. "Hope for the best, plan for the worst."

There're a lot of different personalities on the board here, and the grief cycle has many stages. I think I'm in the bargaining stage myself. Or maybe denial if I'm interpreting the text incorrectly-in which case I will instantly move back to anger (already been there, done that). Here's to everyone working to make the best of a bad situation.

[12%ayear]

12%, my apologies for posting in your thread yesterday instead of here on this topic, this is the more appropriate location for what I had to say. It was not my intent to set anyone off.

In common with most here, I'm not thrilled about the proposal, having just gotten started in frequent trading (reasonably successfully) shortly before this all began coming to a head. Right now I'm more concerned about market fundamentals than charting so fairly inactive and indecisive about doing anything for weeks now.

Since this is the place for discussion about Plan B, I will say that, like plenty of others on this thread, I'm trying to figure out a backup plan if things don't go our way. To do that, I have to interpret as best I can from the written material what they really intend, so I can develop a coping strategy accordingly. I don't want to get caught flat-footed and unprepared when/if it actually happens. "Hope for the best, plan for the worst."

There're a lot of different personalities on the board here, and the grief cycle has many stages. I think I'm in the bargaining stage myself. Or maybe denial if I'm interpreting the text incorrectly-in which case I will instantly move back to anger (already been there, done that). Here's to everyone working to make the best of a bad situation.
..No problem at all, you can post in any thread you like. You did nothing wrong. Everyone is trying to figure it out,including myself. I do not think you set anyone off because you did not do/say anything out of line.

[alevin]

I must be overly sensitive. Coulda sworn I got yelled at (not by you). anyway, thanks. I'm still feeling my way around with folks.