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ekatteng
12-12-2007, 10:13 PM
Is it the best inflation indicator?
Perhaps for the core inflation but does it includes food and energy ?

tsptalk
06-10-2021, 07:36 AM
Consumer prices jump 5% in May, fastest pace since the summer of 2008


Consumer prices for May accelerated at their fastest pace in nearly 13 years as inflation pressures continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Thursday.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/cpi-may-2021.html

Bullitt
06-10-2021, 01:50 PM
I'm still in the transitory camp. Lumber getting smashed, next stop 800. Yields lower today too.

tsptalk
06-10-2021, 02:35 PM
I don't get the lower yields, but that's not surprising. Bonds always seem to go in the opposite direction than I suspect they will.

Bullitt
06-11-2021, 09:20 AM
Used auto prices accounted for 23% of the move. Probably mostly due to low interest rates + stimulus payments + more money with everything shutdown + chip shortage. Very similar to housing right now, just a lack of inventory, but auto inventory is much easier to ramp up than housing inventory.

tsptalk
08-11-2021, 08:21 AM
CPI: July consumer prices jump 5.4%, but core inflation rises less than expected


Prices that Americans pay for everyday goods and services continued their acceleration in July, but about where economists had expected.

Excluding energy and food, CPI rose by 0.3% last month, shy of economist expectations of a 0.4% increase and well below June’s rise of 0.9%.

Used car prices, which rose rapidly between April and June, rose just 0.2% in July after a climb of more than 10% in the prior month.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/11/cpi-report-july-2021.html

TommyIV
08-11-2021, 11:08 AM
A visual chart of the 12 month comparisons of the last year.


50296

mmk119
08-11-2021, 12:52 PM
i get an invalid attachment warning message when i click on the link...

tsptalk
08-11-2021, 01:03 PM
It worked for me. Let's see if the full link works better: https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/attachment.php?attachmentid=50296

weatherweenie
09-14-2021, 07:33 AM
Consumer price index rises 5.3% year over year in August vs 5.4% estimate

tsptalk
09-14-2021, 08:48 AM
Just adding the monthly figure and a link to ww's post...

Consumer prices post smaller-than-expected increase in August


The consumer price index, which measures a basket of common products as well as various energy goods, increased 5.3% from a year earlier and 0.3% from July. A month ago, prices rose 0.5% from June.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/consumer-price-index-august-2021.html

tsptalk
10-13-2021, 08:39 AM
Consumer prices rise more than expected as energy costs surge


KEY POINTS

Consumer prices overall rose 0.4% in September, pushing the year-over-year gain to 5.4%.

Excluding food and energy, the gain was just 0.2% and 4% respectively.

Energy and food prices climbed, while used car prices, which had been a central story in the inflation picture this year, declined.
More: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/13/the-consumer-price-index-rose-5point4percent-year-over-year-in-september-vs-5point3percent-estimate.html

Bullitt
10-13-2021, 09:21 AM
Those cheering the 5.9% increase in cost of living for Social Security need to look at the other side of the coin. Health care will go up at least 5%. If anything else goes up, you're still losing money.

Health care is a joke at the federal level. I have no idea why I'm paying the same as a 65 year old diabetic.

I'm still on the transitory side though. Much of this is self fulfilling. Articles now about people doing Christmas shopping now so they don't have to worry about supply issues. The oil/energy issues are a result of bad policies and forcing solar, etc. down everyone's throats. Some type of renewable energy will be here in the future, but it won't happen overnight. No incentives for large companies to drill thanks to public shareholders (re: XOM, Engine No. 1). The only companies doing any drilling or exploration will have to be private ones that don't answer to large shareholders such as Black Rock and Vanguard bound by ESG and other acronym mandates popular on social media.

The nat gas fiasco worldwide can be blamed 100% on bad policies. Europe wants to "go green" and have NATO in their backyard, but can't break free from Nord Stream supply.

Bullitt
10-13-2021, 10:19 AM
I have no idea why I'm paying the same as a 65 year old diabetic.

Sorry if that post got off topic. To clarify here, there should be incentives for people to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Sure, there are underlying health conditions, but when you pay a flat rate no matter what, where's the incentive to stop unhealthy behaviors such as smoking? In the end we all pay for it. My health care costs are going up 10% from 2020 to 2022. That's a big hit.

tsptalk
11-10-2021, 08:27 AM
U.S. consumer prices jump 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years


The consumer price index surged 6.2% from a year ago in October, the most since December 1990.

Core inflation, stripping out food and energy, increased 4.6%, the fastest gain since November of the same year.

Energy, shelter and vehicle costs led the gains, which more than wiped out the wage increases that workers received for the month.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/consumer-price-index-october.html

tsptalk
12-10-2021, 08:24 AM
Inflation surged 6.8% in November, even more than expected, to fastest rate since 1982


Inflation rose 6.8% from a year ago in November, slightly higher than estimates according to the consumer price index released Friday.

Excluding food and energy, the CPI increased 4.9%, in line with expectations.

Surging prices for food, energy and shelter accounted for much of the gains.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/10/consumer-price-index-november-2021.html

Boghie
12-10-2021, 10:55 AM
Ah, October was the Good Ole' Days. Inflation was only at 6.2% rather than accelerating to 6.8%.

Gotta reach back to the days of Reagan/Volker to get a number like that.

A Fed Rate of 18% to beat inflation!!!

What, me worry???

Why, my cost of living increase will be around 2.7%!!!

tsptalk
01-12-2022, 09:14 AM
Inflation rises 7% over the past year, highest since 1982


The consumer price index, an inflation gauge that measures costs across dozens of items, rose 7% in December from a year earlier, the fastest pace since June 1982.

That was in line, however, with economist estimates, and stock market futures rose after the release.

Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI was up 5.5% on the year, the biggest growth since February 1991.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/12/cpi-december-2021-.html

tsptalk
02-10-2022, 08:23 AM
Inflation rises 7.5% over the past year, even more than expected and the highest since 1982


The consumer price index for all items rose 0.6% in January, driving up annual inflation by 7.5%.

That marked the biggest gain since February 1982 and was even higher than the Wall Street estimate.

Core inflation rose 6%, which also was a notch higher than expectations.

Real earnings for workers increased just 0.1% on the month when accounting for inflation.

Weekly jobless claims declined to 223,000, below the 230,000 estimate.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/january-2022-cpi-inflation-rises-7point5percent-over-the-past-year-even-more-than-expected.html

Bullitt
02-10-2022, 01:28 PM
All this talk about how workers had momentum in getting pay raises and it all came out to a .1% increase in real wages.

tsptalk
03-10-2022, 08:20 AM
Inflation rose 7.9% in February, as food and energy costs push prices to highest in more than 40 years


The consumer price index for February rose 7.9% from a year ago, the highest level since January 1982.

Excluding food and energy, both of which moved sharply higher during the month, core inflation still rose 6.4%, in line with expectations but the highest since August 1982.

Gas, groceries and shelter were the biggest contributors to the CPI gain. Auto prices eased.

Worker paychecks fell further behind, as inflation-adjusted earnings fell 0.8% in February, contributing to a 2.6% decline over the past year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/cpi-inflation-february-2022-.html

DreamboatAnnie
03-10-2022, 10:40 AM
It is expected to rise further so next month's number may not be better.

tsptalk
04-12-2022, 08:22 AM
Consumer prices rose 8.5% in March, slightly hotter than expected and the highest since 1981


Headline CPI in March rose by 8.5% from a year ago, the fastest annual gain since December 1981 and one-tenth of a percentage point above the estimate.

Surging food, energy and shelter costs helped account for the gain.

Real worker earnings fell by another 0.8% during the month as the cost of living outpaced otherwise strong pay gains.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/consumer-prices-rose-8point5percent-in-march-slightly-hotter-than-expected.html

tsptalk
05-11-2022, 08:25 AM
U.S. Inflation Eased in April to 8.3% Annual Rate


Inflation rate fell for first time in eight months as energy prices moderated

U.S. consumer inflation eased in April to an 8.3% annual rate, taking a slight edge off the steepest run of price increases in four decades as energy prices moderated.

The Labor Department’s consumer-price index reading last month marked the first decline in eight months, down from an 8.5% annual rate in March. The CPI measures what consumers pay for goods and services.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-april-2022-11652218520?st=hcl1xg8eujanb39&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

tsptalk
06-10-2022, 08:08 AM
Inflation rose 8.6% in May, highest since 1981


The consumer price index rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, the highest increase since December 1981. Core inflation excluding food and energy rose 6%. Both were higher than expected.

Surging food, gas and energy prices all contributed to the gain, with fuel oil up 106.7% over the past year.

The rise in inflation meant workers lost more ground in May, with real wages declining 0.6% from April and 3% on a 12-month basis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/consumer-price-index-may-2022.html

tsptalk
07-13-2022, 08:03 AM
Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected, as price pressures intensify


The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked another month of the fastest pace for inflation going back to December 1981.

On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 1.3% and core CPI was up 0.7%, compared to respective estimates of 1.1% and 0.5%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/inflation-rose-9point1percent-in-june-even-more-than-expected-as-price-pressures-intensify.html

tsptalk
08-10-2022, 08:06 AM
Consumer prices rose 8.5% in July, less than expected as inflation pressures ease a bit


Prices that consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose 8.5% in July from a year ago, a slowing pace from the previous month due largely to a drop in gasoline prices.

On a monthly basis, prices were flat as energy prices broadly declined 4.6% and gasoline fell 7.7%. That offset a 1.1% monthly gain in food prices and a 0.5% increase in shelter costs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/consumer-prices-rose-8point5percent-in-july-less-than-expected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-a-bit.html

James48843
08-10-2022, 12:30 PM
Consumer prices rose 8.5% in July, less than expected as inflation pressures ease a bit



https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/consumer-prices-rose-8point5percent-in-july-less-than-expected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-a-bit.html

That actually is rather good news.

I think it means the gasoline prices, which caused the big jump in inflation of everything, are coming back down, and six months from now, the inflation rate will be back to a reasonable number, without having to jack up interest rates too high. Another Fed rate hike or two, and things should be back near normal growth and normal interest rates.

Major recession avoided- and just a blip in time, in my book.


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tsptalk
09-13-2022, 08:25 AM
Inflation rose 0.1% in August even with sharp drop in gas prices


The consumer price index increased 0.1% in August. Excluding food and energy, the inflation gauge increased 0.6%, both higher than expected.

Costs were driven by increases in food, shelter and medical care services, offsetting a sharp decline in gasoline prices.

Real average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation rose 0.2% for the month. However, they remained down 2.8% from a year ago.

The consumer price index, which tracks a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.1% for the month and 8.3% over the past year.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/inflation-rose-0point1percent-in-august-even-with-sharp-drop-in-gas-prices.html

rangerray
09-13-2022, 10:50 AM
Prices for food and other goods will not come down until the trucking industry gets some relief at the pump. It's still over $5/gal for diesel in a lot of places. The big trucks can take as much as 300 gal. on a fill up. That cost is paid by everyone. We need to concentrate on the cost to operate a Kenworth T2000, not a Ford F-150.

tsptalk
10-13-2022, 07:44 AM
Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes


The consumer price index for the month increased 0.4% for the month, more than the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a 12-month basis, so-called headline inflation was up 8.2%, off its peak around 9% in June but still hovering near the highest levels since the early 1980s.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/consumer-price-index-september-2022-.html

Valkyrie
10-13-2022, 08:52 AM
Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes



https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/consumer-price-index-september-2022-.html

it would have been much higher except for the Biden administration trying to lower oil prices, otherwise the 2023 COLA increase would have been more than 10%. Instead it got below 9%.

James48843
10-13-2022, 09:39 AM
The Social Security Administration announced on Thursday an 8.7 percent increase in benefit checks for seniors starting next year, a response to the fastest inflation America has seen in four decades. The change will affect about 70.3 million Social Security beneficiaries, including roughly 8 million Supplemental Security Income recipients. The adjustment is expected to increase monthly Social Security checks by about $150 per month on
Thursday's announcement represents the largest increase in Social Security payments in roughly four decades. The Social Security Administration increased the program's benefits by 5.9 percent at the beginning of this year in response to lower -- but still substantial -- inflation in 2021. The change is known as a cost of living adjustment, or COLA.

"The guaranteed benefits provided by Social Security, including the annual COLA, are more crucial than ever, as high inflation remains a problem for older Americans," said Jo Ann Jenkins, chief executive of the AARP, which represents seniors, in a statement. "The automatic adjustment is an essential part of Social Security that helps ensure the benefit does not erode over time due to rising prices."

Full article : https://archive.ph/K3HXb

* SS =. 8.7%
I THINK that 8.7% also applies to CSRS retirees, and FERS would be 1% lower at 7.7% raise in January, if I did that correctly. Is that right?

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tsptalk
11-10-2022, 09:07 AM
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases


The consumer price index increased 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago, both lower than estimates.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis, also lower than expectations.

Prices declined for medical care services, used vehicles and apparel. Shelter costs posted their highest monthly gain since 1990.

Markets soared on the report and Treasury yields tumbled.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/consumer-prices-rose-0point4percent-in-october-less-than-expected-as-inflation-eases.html

Bullitt
11-12-2022, 08:47 AM
I'm sure the numbers were just manipulated in some way to look good. Three things below that are more important and had zero effect on the recent inflation numbers.

- Looking like a split government ahead and that's less chance for any more stimulus.

- School loan bailouts are facing serious challenges and that's creating a nice deflationary hit.

- An end to the conflict in Ukraine is closer after this past week's action.

TommyIV
12-12-2022, 10:52 AM
Tomorrow (12/13) the Consumer Price Index will be made public at 8:30 AM ET. The forecast for the year-over-year change is 7.3% (https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733).

Tomorrow will also be the beginning of the December FOMC meeting. The committee is expected to raise rates by 0.5% on Wednesday but the CPI will be fresh on their minds.

Stocks are up today despite the potential for the CPI to spark volatility tomorrow.

U.S. stocks rise as investors await inflation data and the Fed's rate decision (https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-stocks-rise-as-investors-await-inflation-data-and-the-feds-rate-decision-2962340)

tsptalk
12-12-2022, 11:10 AM
Consumers survey on inflation:


Consumers see inflation easing considerably in the next year, New York Fed survey shows


Consumers grew more optimistic about inflation in November amid expectations that both food and energy price increases would be less severe in the coming year, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday.

The central bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that respondents see one-year inflation running at a 5.2% pace, down 0.7 percentage point from the October reading.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/12/consumers-see-inflation-easing-considerably-in-the-next-year-new-york-fed-survey-shows.html

tsptalk
12-13-2022, 07:36 AM
Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, up 7.1% from a year ago


The consumer price index, which measures a wide basket of goods and services, rose just 0.1% from the previous month, and increased 7.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 0.3% monthly increase and a 7.3% 12-month rate.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI rose 0.2% on the month and 6% on an annual basis, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 6.1%.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/cpi-inflation-november-2022-.html

TommyIV
01-11-2023, 10:49 AM
Tomorrow is the release of the latest Consumer Price Index. Investors have been satisfied seeing this index consistently decrease the last five months. Last month's year-over-year CPI was below expectations coming in at 7.1%. This month the y-o-y is forecasted to be 6.5%. The y-o-y has not been below 7% since December 2021.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733)

tsptalk
01-12-2023, 08:19 AM
Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, in line with expectations from economists


The consumer price index fell 0.1% in December, meeting expectations, for the biggest drop since April 2020.

Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.3%, also in line with estimates.

On an annual basis, headline CPI rose 6.5% while core increased 5.7%.

The biggest reason for the easing in inflation came from a sharp drop in gasoline prices, which are now lower on a year-over-year basis.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/consumer-prices-fell-0point1percent-in-december-in-line-with-economists-expectations.html

weatherweenie
02-14-2023, 07:45 AM
The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% for the month, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%.

Excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% from a year ago, against respective estimates of 0.3% and 5.5%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/consumer-price-index-january-2023-.html

tsptalk
05-10-2023, 08:21 AM
Inflation rose 4.9% in April from a year ago, less than expectations


The consumer price index rose 0.4% last month, pushed higher by rising shelter, used vehicle and gas prices. The increase was in line with Wall Street expectations.

On an annual basis, the inflation rate was 4.9%, slightly less than the estimate and providing some hope that the trend is lower.

For workers, real average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.1% for the month but were still down 0.5% from a year ago.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/cpi-inflation-april-2023.html

tsptalk
06-13-2023, 08:19 AM
Inflation rose at a 4% annual rate in May, the lowest in 2 years


The consumer price index, which measures changes in a multitude of goods and services, increased just 0.1% for the month, bringing the annual level down to 4%. That 12-month increase was the smallest since March 2021, when inflation was just beginning to rise to what would become the highest in 41 years.

... core inflation rose 0.4% on the month and was still up 5.3% from a year ago


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/cpi-inflation-report-may-2023-.html

Bullitt
06-13-2023, 04:04 PM
Some good, some bad.

Transportation up 10.2%. Rents up 8%. Vehicle repair up 13%, insurance up 17%. No value added with any of those items.

All energy down double digits, nobody going to complain about that.

Health insurance down 20%, but I'll believe that when I see the rate next open season.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm

tsptalk
07-12-2023, 08:30 AM
CPI beats estimates (lower), but don't forget, prices and inflation are still going up (+3%). It's not like prices came down. They just went up less than was expected, but it's still higher than the Fed's target of 2%. But getting better. Still a 90% chance of a hike at the end of the month, but it's now more likely it could be the last, unless something changes.

-------------------------------------------------

CPI rises less than expected in June


The consumer price index rose 0.2% in June and 3% from a year ago, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a monthly increase of 0.3% and 3.1% on an annualized basis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

cmil1212
07-14-2023, 12:27 PM
CPI beats estimates (lower), but don't forget, prices and inflation are still going up (+3%). It's not like prices came down. They just went up less than was expected, but it's still higher than the Fed's target of 2%. But getting better. Still a 90% chance of a hike at the end of the month, but it's now more likely it could be the last, unless something changes.

-------------------------------------------------

CPI rises less than expected in June



https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

58430

4.8 is hardly 2%. Fed has work to do. Shouldn't have paused. But market seems to be behind here or oblivious so have to plan accordingly. Safe to say we'll be pulling back at some point.

tsptalk
08-10-2023, 08:12 AM
Inflation gauge rose 3.2% annually in July, less than expected


Prices accelerated 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. However, the annual rate was slightly below the 3.3% forecast though higher than June.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices so-called core CPI also increased 0.2% for the month, equating to a 12-month rate of 4.7%. The annual rate for core also was slightly below a Dow Jones consensus estimate for 4.8%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/cpi-inflation-july-2023-.html

Bullitt
08-11-2023, 06:11 AM
Take shelter out of the equation and we're in a deflationary environment.

58588

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1689617403922063360

St. Louis Fed projects shelter inflation to be deflationary one year from now.

58589

Note: Solid line shows actual year-over-year changes; dashed line shows average forecast, with shaded 95% confidence band.

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2023/august/where-is-shelter-inflation-headed/

tsptalk
09-13-2023, 08:00 AM
August core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, hotter than expected


Inflation posted its biggest monthly increase this year in August as consumers faced higher prices on energy and a variety of other items.

The consumer price index, which measures costs across a broad variety of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, and was up 3.7% from a year ago, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for respective increases of 0.6% and 3.6%.

However, excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% and 4.3% respectively, against estimates for 0.2% and 4.3%. Federal Reserve officials focus more on core as it provides a better indication of where inflation is heading over the long term.


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/cpi-inflation-report-august-2023-.html

tsptalk
10-12-2023, 08:28 AM
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected


The consumer price index increased 0.4% on the month and 3.7% from a year ago, above respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.6%.

Core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4.1% on a 12-month basis, both exactly in line with expectations.

Shelter costs were the main factor in the inflation increase, accounting for more than half the rise in CPI.

Real average hourly earnings fell 0.2% on the month but were up 0.5% from a year ago.


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/12/cpi-september-2023.html

tsptalk
11-14-2023, 08:27 AM
Inflation was flat in October from the prior month, core CPI hits two-year low


The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of commonly used goods and services, was flat in October from the previous month but increased 3.2% from a year ago. Both were below Wall Street estimates.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%. The annual rate was the smallest increase since September 2021.

The flat reading on headline CPI came as energy prices declined 2.5% for the month, offsetting a 0.3% increase in the food index.


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/cpi-inflation-report-october-2023.html

tsptalk
12-12-2023, 08:28 AM
Inflation slowed to a 3.1% annual rate in November


The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for no gain and a yearly rate of 3.1%.


CPI inflation report November 2023 (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/cpi-inflation-report-november-2023.html)

tsptalk
01-11-2024, 08:28 AM
Thursday’s inflation report could challenge the market outlook for big Fed rate cuts


The consumer price index is projected to have risen 0.2% in the final month of 2023, or 3.2% for the full year.

There is a wide gap between what the Fed has indicated in terms of rate cuts and what the market is expecting.

The Fed’s central mission now is calibrating policy in a way that it doesn’t ease too much and allow inflation to return or hold policy too tight so that it causes a long-anticipated recession.


Inflation report could challenge market outlook for big Fed rate cuts (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/10/thursdays-inflation-report-could-challenge-the-market-outlook-for-big-fed-rate-cuts.html)

tsptalk
01-11-2024, 10:32 AM
More from briefing.com:


Total CPI was up 0.3% month-over-month in December (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following an unrevised 0.1% increase in November. The shelter index jumped 0.5% and accounted for over half of the monthly increase in total CPI.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%).

With these December changes, total CPI was up 3.4% year-over-year, versus 3.1% in November, and core CPI was up 3.9% year-over-year, versus 4.0% in November.

Bullitt
01-11-2024, 04:43 PM
Motor vehicle insurance up 20.3% since 2023. Unreal. Partially inflation, partially thanks to Kia and Hyundai thefts.

Nat Gas down 13% but I'm still paying the same price as last year.

Food away from home up 5.2%

tsptalk
02-09-2024, 08:24 AM
Inflation in December was even lower than first reported, the government says


The prices consumers pay in the marketplace rose at an even slower pace than originally reported, according to closely watched revisions the government released Friday.

Revisions to the consumer price index showed that the broad basket of goods and services measured increased 0.2% on the month, less than the originally reported 0.3%, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.


Inflation in December was even lower than first reported, the government says (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/-inflation-in-december-was-even-lower-than-first-reported-the-government-says.html)

tsptalk
02-13-2024, 08:19 AM
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in January, more than expected, as the annual rate moved to 3.1%


Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual gain of 2.9%.


CPI inflation January 2024: Consumer prices rose 0.3% in January, more than expected, as the annual rate moved to 3.1% (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.html)

tsptalk
03-12-2024, 09:20 AM
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago


The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago. The monthly measure was in line with expectations while the 12-month reading was slightly higher.

The core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.

A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter climbed another 0.4%.


CPI inflation report February 2024: (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2024-.html)

tsptalk
04-10-2024, 08:56 AM
Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected


The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than in February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.


CPI inflation March 2024: Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/cpi-inflation-march-2024-consumer-prices-rose-3point5percent-from-a-year-ago-in-march.html)