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Spaf
10-10-2004, 11:20 AM
Market actions of last week were a bit violent. While a pull back was a possibility, the actual volume loss was unexpected. My system can't react to such voraciousness. It's like the soft patch turned into a a wash out!

In the last 15 days 9-20 to 10-8 the TSP funds have recorded gains/losses accordingly: G = .02, F = (.02), C = .01, S = .12, I = .46

Market returns are now at a critical point, presently declining to the point of possibly crossing under the moving average of 20 days and reversing signals of the P-SAR.

Current market sentiment is critical for Q4: The price of oil and other commodities, economic performance and corporate profitability are the factors likely to affect the stock market. The longer oil stays at $50 a barrel or more, and it shows no sign right now of falling, the more it will eat into consumer purchasing power, economic growth and stock prices. Future economic growth is another wild card. Recent data have given a mixed picture, with jobs creation falling short of expectations.

Presently we are in the marginal area of Bears vs Bulls. Economics are playing hard against the market. The Bearish decline of trending cycles has not been clearly broken. The present reality is one of caution, with no clear signals of what will happen tomorrow.

My consideration is that conditions now have too great a risk. Should be in the G fund, untill turbulent conditions clear.
Attached is the S&P Yahoo chart ending 10-8-04. What Monday brings:*??

Spaf
10-10-2004, 03:36 PM
Well some good news out there!
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow predicted on Sunday skyrocketing oil prices were set to go down and said Middle Eastern finance ministers had responded positively to his request to boost output quotas.
-------------------------
The First Law of Economists: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist.

The Second Law of Economists: They're both wrong.

:)

Mike
10-11-2004, 04:55 AM
The I fund made a new high for the year on Friday. The C fund came within a whisker of making a new high last week as well (just 3 cents short of it).

Gotta love the volatility though...

ou81200
10-11-2004, 05:32 AM
I went ahead and put in an order to pull out of the I fund this morning. I will have 50% C, and 50%S after changes take place. I saw some news where European stocks were coming off of five month highs.

Question for anyone. Right now I have the maximum deductions coming out for the TSP fund. This comes out to about 250 dollars every two weeks. This does not include the matching amount. After building the account to let's say 100,000 dollars, would it still be advantagious to keep the maximum deductions going in. Right now, having the deductions going in my account has a big effect on my balance. But as my account grows, this will decrease percentage wise.

Any advise is appreciated :)

Dakota
10-11-2004, 07:49 AM
always put in as much as you can. Thats the way I see it:^

Dakota
10-11-2004, 07:50 AM
Dakota wrote:
always put in as much as you can. Thats the way I see it:^


when is open season? whats the projected outlook for the week? all replies appreciated

Cinderella
10-11-2004, 08:01 AM
Dakota, The next open season is Oct 15 through Dec 31, 2004.

Please understand what I want to happen in the market and what will actually happen are two different things, but I am looking for a bull breakout any day now.

Dakota
10-11-2004, 08:18 AM
Thanks, can we (during open season ) up our contributions on-line

Cinderella
10-11-2004, 08:34 AM
The way to enroll, change the amount of your TSP contributions, or stop contributing to the TSP depends on your agency. This is explained at www.tsp.gov Click on Account Access and go into Contribution Elections.

Dakota
10-11-2004, 08:40 AM
Thanks cinderella, I guess I have to wait a few days anyhow. I appreciate:u

Cinderella
10-11-2004, 09:04 AM
ou81200 wrote:

I went ahead and put in an order to pull out of the I fund this morning. I will have 50% C, and 50%S after changes take place. I saw some news where European stocks were coming off of five month highs.

Question for anyone. Right now I have the maximum deductions coming out for the TSP fund. This comes out to about 250 dollars every two weeks. This does not include the matching amount. After building the account to let's say 100,000 dollars, would it still be advantagious to keep the maximum deductions going in. Right now, having the deductions going in my account has a big effect on my balance. But as my account grows, this will decrease percentage wise.

Any advise is appreciated :)


Hi ou81200, There are some good posts on this forum covering investment portfolios. Look under "Financial Planning Talk" and the subtitle of "Retirement Planning". A few of the threads that cover maxing the TSP and/or a TSP/IRA mix are found under "How Much Should One Save" and "TSP and Roth". Hope this helps. If not, ask more questions.

Spaf
10-11-2004, 10:06 AM
My 2 cents on Savings
In TSP the government will match a %. It would be foolish not to take advantage of this free money. Nuf said, everyone has to do the math for their own finances. Some of us will have money form inheritance, property, etc. TSP is one of three legs of the FERS retirement system. The money in TSP can be used several ways after retirement. If one transfers it to a IRA, generally 4% can be withdrawn annually and the rest can grow with retirement. However (big word), other funds are needed! Emergencies, health, roof leaks, etc. My choise was to open a seperate account that mirrowed TSP funds with Fidelity Investments, that are not tax deferred. TSP is a retirement leg, remember, you will need other funds. Wish we could all win the lottery!!
:)

Dakota
10-11-2004, 10:07 AM
I'm staying 25g 25 c 25s 25i

Cinderella
10-11-2004, 11:27 AM
Dakota wrote:

I'm staying 25g 25 c 25s 25i

Enjoy your holiday. The TSP is closed and there is nothing that you can do about your allocations today.

Paul
10-11-2004, 12:01 PM
The attached article is from Stratfor Inc., a strategic company that has done well in predicting future market directions.

Paul

ou81200
10-11-2004, 12:09 PM
Thanks All EOM:D

Dakota
10-11-2004, 01:49 PM
cinderela, thanks for the holiday greeting. fortunately I am working today and get an extra days pay. Everyone have a nice day and I hope a good week in the markets Can anyone tell me what might be going on with the EAFE its seems to be holding steady(in the green) and hasn't changedmuch today

Spaf
10-11-2004, 07:57 PM
The EAFE shound be on the home page?

I currently have a transfer pending for 100% G. I will check the Tuesday AM market reports and make a final decision to cancell or let the transfer go through.

I might try to go on the lightside, maybe 75% G, and 25% I. Heck I don't know! The volatility of the recent several days is saying caution,there is turbulence. Will wait and see what early reports look like! Anyone have suggestions? Let me know before 10 AM central??????
:#

Take care!

Mike
10-12-2004, 12:26 AM
The I fund made a new high on Friday (and probably another one Monday). You could lock in some nice gains on it. I'm tempted to move my remaining 20% out of there into G and wait for the inevitable buying opportunity that will come later. In fact, I think I'll do that.

Spaf
10-12-2004, 12:54 AM
Mike

The I fund looks like the best in returns, recently. The market itself gives me the gitters, because of the deep red candlesticks on the S&P. This is my caution flag! I don't see a trend that we can say is established for timing the market. All I see is that it could be this, or it could be that!

Three brokers were out hunting. One shot to the left of the turkey, the second shot to the right of the turkey. The third broker threw down his gun and said "We got it"!

Mike
10-12-2004, 04:25 AM
Haha that was a good one. :D

Correction: I had 15% in the I fund, not 20. In any case, I've put in the request to move it to G. I'll now be 30% G, which is very "G heavy" for me. I'll definitely be watching the markets closely for a buying opportunity now.

I'm approaching a six-day off stretch - once I get there, I'll do some sort of comprehensive study of the three stock funds in Thrift and see if I can find any trends... ah, that should be fun reading. :shock:

Spaf
10-12-2004, 09:30 AM
Early morning market check........ Starting off again in the basement. I was going to hopefully transfer and still play some of the stocks, lightly. No such stats or sentiment. No emotions or gambling: going 100% G fund. As Tom has said "That whipsaw effect can be demoralizing". The deep ups and downs recently are volatility, not trends. Currently the market exceeds my risk tolerance (too bumpy). There will be better days.

learning
10-12-2004, 03:56 PM
Question asked:

Question for anyone. Right now I have the maximum deductions coming out for the TSP fund. This comes out to about 250 dollars every two weeks. This does not include the matching amount. After building the account to let's say 100,000 dollars, would it still be advantagious to keep the maximum deductions going in.

My Two cents:

That is a good question. For me it is not how much money I have in the account but how much I have to invest. FIRST YOU MUST AT LEAST DO THE MATCHING AMOUNT. The second part is up to you. Perhaps, you may not want to max in the TSP. Instead you might want to put into a ROTH account.This way when you retire you will not have to pay taxes on it.(It may be better to pay taxes know versus later. Perhaps later is when you want to pay the taxes. That depends on where you are and where you believe you will be when you retire.)

I would suggest having money else where.If you can max the TSP and put money in elsewhere, hay great. Do it. If not, perhaps you want to put money in another area.

OneThing for me is I don't depened on any goverment retirement. It will be TSP and my retirement savings. If the goverment gives me some extra money else where, hay great.Youknow social security. I suspect a low means test or something will hit by the time I retire.

I'm just learing and there are betterpeople then I out there. This is only something to think about. Take itup with a"pro", is my final thought.:iThey will know where you are in life. We do not.

cowboy
10-12-2004, 04:55 PM
learning wrote:
Question asked:

Question for anyone. Right now I have the maximum deductions coming out for the TSP fund. This comes out to about 250 dollars every two weeks. This does not include the matching amount. After building the account to let's say 100,000 dollars, would it still be advantagious to keep the maximum deductions going in.

My Two cents:

That is a good question. For me it is not how much money I have in the account but how much I have to invest. FIRST YOU MUST AT LEAST DO THE MATCHING AMOUNT. The second part is up to you. Perhaps, you may not want to max in the TSP. Instead you might want to put into a ROTH account.This way when you retire you will not have to pay taxes on it. (It may be better to pay taxes know versus later. Perhaps later is when you want to pay the taxes. That depends on where you are and where you believe you will be when you retire.)

I would suggest having money else where.If you can max the TSP and put money in elsewhere, hay great. Do it. If not, perhaps you want to put money in another area.

OneThing for me is I don't depened on any goverment retirement. It will be TSP and my retirement savings. If the goverment gives me some extra money else where, hay great.Youknow social security. I suspect a low means test or something will hit by the time I retire.

I'm just learing and there are betterpeople then I out there. This is only something to think about. Take itup with a"pro", is my final thought.:iThey will know where you are in life. We do not.



Sounds like your thinking things thru. My Question is what is your definition of a "pro". If it's someone your willing to pay $250 every two weeks for the next two months I can be a "pro". The advantage of being the "pro" is you'll wait 30 years to find out if I'm wrong or not! My thought is there is no "pro's" what you may think is right today may be wrong tomorrow just like the stock market but if your willing to part with money I'm willing to listen.

Spaf
10-12-2004, 07:16 PM
Learning
Two books I liked: "Financial Freedom" (Suze Orman) and Mutual Funds for Dummies. TSP has options on retirement, one is a transfer toa Traditional IRA. You can withdraw 4% annually, and it should grow in retirement. You need other funds for emergencies i.e., 6 mo salary / 20K (min) in liquid assets (Money Mkt, mutuals, etc). Property investments (home, rentals) also good, but the money is not readily accessible. Married? 2 salaries, inheritances, all other factors you have to consider for your self. Have a good day Learning!

Spaf
10-12-2004, 07:41 PM
Cowboy
Your right, got to be careful of those "Pros" Wasn't it them that advocated technology stock back in the bubble years? A co-worker is paying $300 a quarter, by appointment. We are in the wrong business.

Well if TSP will ever give me a reading I should be 100% G. Hope they got the transfer! Tom posted 4 issues in Current market and fund comments. Kind of reinforces my transfer decision. Also, the current market looks like the prior bearish cycles. I want to see a good trend. Too many clouds for me, don't want to fly into a mountain.

smine
10-12-2004, 08:23 PM
Did I see that right???? The I fund -0.21? My God, why don't we put in a sieve to sift our money out of our pocket. Glad I only had 25% but 50%?? Jesus. Can we get a conservative, money saving strategy out there? Please. Gain a little, lose a little, gain a little, lose some more. Thank God I get paid to replenish this fund!

Spaf
10-12-2004, 11:18 PM
Smine
The European market didn't like the oil problems. We also had 2 prior days of steep losses on the S&P. The market is volatile. It has gone through 3 bearish cycles in Q2 and Q3. Maybe another cycle is in the making. The conditions that make the cycles have not been broken (in my opinion). There is no cushion for oil. It broke through $54 today, and closed lower. The market picture was an inverse proportional picture of the oil. I feel that we would have a fairly good market if it wasn't for the oil problems.
This year I had a good garden crop going, but a couple of goffers got in there and ruined it. Oil and goffers!!!

Mike
10-13-2004, 01:22 AM
I can't believe it- I actually made a properread on the I fund. Surely, the end is coming... :shock:

TheProphet
10-13-2004, 06:47 AM
I am not sure if a charitable trust will be the best way yet...

Any one knows about it ?

TheProphet
10-13-2004, 07:03 AM
keep it to the maximum as long as you can... it is tax deferred and help you to build your capital base even bigger... :^

TheProphet
10-13-2004, 08:06 AM
Dollar is too weak... but till when ? I do not think they going to give Dollars away for free in the streets of London, Paris, Tokio, Berlin... But very shor term... and if the oil continue going up and the dollar down... The I Fund is very attactive...

Spaf
10-13-2004, 10:30 AM
Mixed market reports with recent losses. Appears C and S fund crested 10-6 at 12.12 and 13.31 respectively. TheI fund lasted a few more days peaking on 10-8 at 13.79. Is the market catching it's breath, or do we have another cycle in the making? Will be in the hanger, watching and waiting!

I noticed this comment about the market "The market can't break out on the upside because of concerns about earnings and where the economy is going."

cowboy
10-13-2004, 10:47 AM
It's possibly in the hanger but I'm going to be 100% I fund just to make sure it keeps going! Nothing Like losing money!:D

TheProphet
10-13-2004, 01:27 PM
PATIENCE IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE ! I do not take loses... the market will turn around if I stay long enough... next time I will wait till it goes lower and will get out early... now nothing I can do just wait with patience.... :zz

Spaf
10-13-2004, 02:33 PM
LK
My system says out! Those were some big red candlesticks recently (now). The cycle appears to be back. Nowthe question is, what floor is it going to stop on?

Mike
10-13-2004, 10:06 PM
I'm always mostly invested just in case a rally develops and catches me off-guard. I'm actually somewhat appreciative of the recent downward action, because I have 30% in G waiting to pounce (plus I think we'll get the penny gain tomorrow). :)

Spaf
10-13-2004, 10:40 PM
Some of the market sentiment was expressed as:
"You've got energy stocks down, commodities stocks down, oil spiking again in late afternoon trade -- all of those things are causing downward pressure on the market," There is a concern about winter heating oil supplies, and the price of oil closed at $53.64
Stat wise:
The market pricing has declined below the 20 day moving average, and the parabolic SAR has signaled a reverse into possibly another cycle like we have been experiencing most of the year. How deep will this cycle be, only the market knows.
Allocations:
Right now I am 100% G-fund. However, I have a transfer pending to 90% G, and 10% F. The F fund allows for a little taxi time outside the hanger.

Mike
10-14-2004, 12:27 AM
We'll know soon whether or not this is short-lived.

It'll be also be another opportunity to assess the usefulness of seasonality charts. :P

Spaf
10-14-2004, 08:00 AM
Mike
Notice how volatile the market pricing was in late Sept. /early Oct. Short lived ? All depends, since we have safe funds why take the chance of a deep decline like in July. Seasonality charts are good if the same factors are relevant that molded the charts to start with. The economy, rates, profits, oil, allmake up different factors, it's not a one size fits all.

TheProphet
10-14-2004, 01:47 PM
PATIENT IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE !!!

I DO NOT TAKE LOSSES... The TSP will not give shares for free... losses are only if I let them take profit from me... History through out the year proof me that if I am patient and way... the market will rebounce up and let me get out with profit... I know I missed this time by not getting out on October the 6th... I now have to pay and go for the ride... down... up... I am certain the market will not stay low... and will not give share away for free... just has to wait... wait and wait... and learn my lesson...

:zz:zz:zz

Spaf
10-14-2004, 01:58 PM
LK
Thats a good rule! I like it. [Take no losses!]

TheProphet
10-14-2004, 02:43 PM
Sapf,

I know I am going down for awhile... but History had show me the market always comes back up... so I wait and wait and wait with PATIENCE till it comes back... I just enjoy the ride... down and up... I TAKE NO LOSSES... I loss only when I sell lower than what I paid for... PATIENCE IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE... :^

Leon

clester
10-14-2004, 06:51 PM
The I fund finished flat for thur. The efa ticker had us down about .5% guess the weak dollar helped us again. The I fund still looks good to me, above the 50 day. Trending up. I'm getting nervous on the S fund though. I believe its right at the 50 day trending down. I may get out of it for the weekend. I'll wait and see how tomorow looks before noon.
Still 50% S 50% I. Good luck everyone.

Spaf
10-14-2004, 08:44 PM
Hi clester, welcome!

Sentiment check:
I was checking the CBS MarketWatch talk. What I noticed was that earning reports looked mixed. Crude closed at $54.76. One comment, that it could peak at $60-70, and aoil thrust could get nasty. For calmness oil needed to be around $41. The dollar was depreciating. And, any election upswing was clouded with uncertainty.
Stats check:
All TSP stock funds prices have activated P-SAR stops. The F fund could break free as it has been increasing the last 5 days.
Allocation:
90% G, 10% F.

Careful!

Mike
10-14-2004, 10:03 PM
Spaf - my balance is small compared to the vast majority here and I'm a very long way from retirement, so I can afford to roll the dice on these things.

30% G is about as cautious as I'll ever get, and the fact I have that much there right now should tell you something (also, every new allocation is being dumped 100% in the G fund). :P

Unlike the last cycle, I'll have a fair-sized amount todive in withwhen it bottoms out... plus I'm still invested enough to catch any surprise rally (though I don't believe one is coming with the oil price surging as it is).

Spaf
10-14-2004, 10:18 PM
Mike - I can retire when ever I like. And I might be playing with a few more $, and in other investments.
I respect your position. Lets go for it!

:^

Dakota
10-14-2004, 11:09 PM
spaf, what part of oklahoma

Spaf
10-14-2004, 11:27 PM
Dakota - Well your gonna get a weird answer:
I work out of Oklahoma City, we are leasing a temporary residence in Edmond Oklahoma (selling our acreage (small farm) in Oklahoma County), but my permanent residence is in McIntosh County by Lake Eufaula Oklahoma, with a PO Box in Checotah Oklahoma. Weird answer!
This is the way my (near) future retirement has worked out.

Dakota
10-14-2004, 11:29 PM
I live in sterling and work for dod at the reynolds army hospital wg-11 Fort sill

Spaf
10-14-2004, 11:40 PM
Hey Dakota - I'm in the DOL - OSHA phone directory 405-278-9560 x 241.
:)

Dakota
10-14-2004, 11:43 PM
580-365-4012 home mostly day

580-458-2194 work mostly evenings and mids

Spaf
10-15-2004, 12:51 AM
Back to TSP
Declines appears to be the sentiment. Stats appear to be a short (sell). And I (my opinion) think the G fund (maybe the F fund, lightly)is the safe position, right now.
Hopefully the decline will be broken and reallocations (prices) can return profits. But where the bottom is at, is anyones guess! Maybe tommorrow, maybe not, sentiments andstatsdo not seem to favor tomorrow(s), so I'll stay on the sidelines!

Be careful out there?

Mike
10-15-2004, 02:44 AM
In spite of my own negative sentiment, I'm not lightening any more on the stocks. All that will do is lock in losses, and there's no sense in doing that. I'm gonna ride this thing out and move all-in when I believe I see a bottom... it'll be nice to have 30% of my holdings consisting of very cheap shares for a change. :^

I'll just not say anything about the other 70% - that part is just too depressing right now. :P

10-15-2004, 10:26 AM
lkatteng wrote:
PATIENT IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE !!!

I DO NOT TAKE LOSSES... The TSP will not give shares for free... losses are only if I let them take profit from me... History through out the year proof me that if I am patient and way... the market will rebounce up and let me get out with profit... I know I missed this time by not getting out on October the 6th... I now have to pay and go for the ride... down... up... I am certain the market will not stay low... and will not give share away for free... just has to wait... wait and wait... and learn my lesson...

:zz:zz:zz
That is sort of what my "old" system did, it set pre-determined buy and sell prices and you just waited for the fund prices to come to you. However, I much prefer selling and buying at a lower price for bigger gains than waiting for them to come back up to me.

Dakota
10-15-2004, 11:07 AM
just went back to moderate for monday 25 accross(except f). Maybe monday going evening going straight 100%c. got a funny feeling s and I are pulling back. maybe feel it out for a few days before I make any big unrational move. Dont know much about indicators. But I do know I enjoy reading al ya'lls theories, ideas, and speculations. Good luck Spaf, Give me a call. I put my number for the world to see, but thats the way the gov. is. numbers not names. give me a call

Spaf
10-15-2004, 12:37 PM
Prior Market Cycles

This thread is an illustration of the prior market cycles. Iam not making a prediction, less no one be led astray by a changing market. The numbers are not exact. I extracted them from BigCharts, using the S&P index.

Maybe cycle 4 will follow the others, maybe it will be completely different. Something to talk about?

Cycle 1 March 1163H 1087L 1151H lasted 28 days
Cycle 2 April-May 1146H 1076L 1142H lasted 40 days
Cycle 3 July-August 1144H 1060L 1129H lasted 44 days
Cycle 4 Oct- 1142H

Spaf
10-16-2004, 12:16 AM
Weak (week) ending
Stock funds in TSP have been on a Cycle-coaster since Feburary, trending gradually downward. We may be in another cycle down. Safe funds like G & F appear to be the best resting place for now, especially noting the recent violatility of the ups and downs.
I will be moving, and redoing my computer from DSL to Cox cable, expecting some down time to re-install hardware, software, etc.
Will leave you with the S&P chart of where we stood as of COB Friday, with the moving average of 20 days and the P-SAR plotted, for your reference.
Have a good weekend, and see you later!

TheProphet
10-18-2004, 10:08 AM
Spaf,

You are right... G is the best fund right now... but if I move from S I will loose... if I wait few weeks... I will profit... I will wait... PATIENT IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE...

Leon

VictorPR
10-18-2004, 02:54 PM
I agreed with Leon. I have learned that the market works in cycles and I have lost alot more because I tried to cut my loosesby moving to Gand I ended up lossing more. I will hold my ground and see what happens. Currently C , S and I.

clester
10-18-2004, 06:05 PM
It looks like we may have turned the corner. Two up days make a big difference. 1103 is a big resistance level on the S&P. If we were to break it we may go on down. IBM had good results so tomorow should be good, but more earnings coming.
Still 50% I 50% S.:D

clester
10-18-2004, 06:13 PM
I Just saw that the I fund was down 3 cents. Is that because of stronger dollar or better market last two day in US?
I'm still trying to figure I fund out.:(

tsptalk
10-18-2004, 07:55 PM
clester wrote:
I Just saw that the I fund was down 3 cents. Is that because of stronger dollar or better market last two day in US?
I'm still trying to figure I fund out.:(
Was the dollar up today? That would be why,but I thought it was down for some reason. Maybe the IBM news gave the dollar a boost after hours. Just a hunch. I fund may make it up tomorrow.

TheProphet
10-19-2004, 10:31 AM
I prefer not to be on I because of what Tom said... the dollar index is way down... and I do not think they will give dollars away for free in europe... I am 100% on S.

http://www.geocities.com/earn100kplus/TSP.html?1098196895296 (http://www.geocities.com/earn100kplus/TSP.html?1098196895296)

Good Luck :^

learning
10-19-2004, 02:13 PM
Sorry for the long wait, I was out of town.

When I was saying a pro- that was my way of saying someone you know and trust in this area. Here it is-we are all responsible for our trades and I do not want someone to take my word for it. They need to do the work and research. It is their responsibility. I just gave an idea. Yes, I have thought about it a lot. This is our retirement. More to the point this is my retirement. We have to accept the risk we take, and not just do what others say. I will not take the fault for another pesons error. I could very easly be wrong. As my name says I am learing.:^ Do what you will the risk is on you.

learning
10-19-2004, 02:22 PM
Spaf wrote:
Learning
Two books I liked: "Financial Freedom" (Suze Orman) and Mutual Funds for Dummies. TSP has options on retirement, one is a transfer toa Traditional IRA. You can withdraw 4% annually, and it should grow in retirement. You need other funds for emergencies i.e., 6 mo salary / 20K (min) in liquid assets (Money Mkt, mutuals, etc). Property investments (home, rentals) also good, but the money is not readily accessible. Married? 2 salaries, inheritances, all other factors you have to consider for your self. Have a good day Learning!



I agree with you. I will look up the books and others and read them. As to the last part about- Married? 2 salaries, inheritances, all other factors you have to consider for your self- that is part of the reason I said a pro who knows where you are at in life. This being a person you know and trust, (paid or otherwise) that can help guide you. And that is all any can do is help guide you. You have to make the decisions and take the responsibility. The market is a gamble and we can all lose our shirts. Happens every day:X

But thanks, I have enjoyed reading what you and others have said. You have taught me a lot :u

Ozzy
10-20-2004, 02:44 PM
You sound loke those "Hold and Hopers" back in early 2000 that watched their investements go down 65%. Some people lost 80% plus and you sound like you have their mindset. You let your crap go down 5 to 10% and then get out...do not let your investments drop 50% because you did to go up 100% just to break even.

Is Market Timer still on this board? He told me to take a look on this board and it appears I am wasting my time with you BULLSSSSSSSS!.

The market will turn tomorrow, I do not want to miss out on a gain....GREED will drive you to the poor house.

Leaving this board...wasting my time here. MT is right you sound like you listen to those talking heads on TV and puke up their advice. I AM BULLISH! BUY TECH ON THE CHEAP, QUARTER 4 IS THE BEST QUARTER. BUY IN THE FALL.

By the way...the only good stock fund is the I fund becaue the U.S. is going into recession. Every time the crude has spiked it has happened...100% of the time.

Chasing away MT was a bad move. Moving on and making cash!





lkatteng wrote:

PATIENCE IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE ! I do not take loses... the market will turn around if I stay long enough... next time I will wait till it goes lower and will get out early... now nothing I can do just wait with patience.... :zz

Ozzy
10-20-2004, 02:49 PM
Pat wrote:
You sound like those "Hold and Hopers" back in early 2000 that watched their investements go down 65%. Some people lost 80% plus and you sound like you have their mindset. You let your crap go down 5 to 10% and then get out...do not let your investments drop 50% because you did to go up 100% just to break even.

Is Market Timer still on this board? He told me to take a look on this board and it appears I am wasting my time with you BULLSSSSSSSS!.

The market will turn tomorrow, I do not want to miss out on a gain....GREED will drive you to the poor house.

Leaving this board...wasting my time here. MT is right you sound like you listen to those talking heads on TV and puke up their advice. I AM BULLISH! BUY TECH ON THE CHEAP, QUARTER 4 IS THE BEST QUARTER. BUY IN THE FALL.

By the way...the only good stock fund is the I fund becaue the U.S. is going into recession. Every time the crude has spiked it has happened...100% of the time.

Chasing away MT was a bad move. Moving on and making cash!





lkatteng wrote:

PATIENCE IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE ! I do not take loses... the market will turn around if I stay long enough... next time I will wait till it goes lower and will get out early... now nothing I can do just wait with patience.... :zz
Patience is a profitable virtue ???? Hold and hope/pray/close eyesdoes not work in bear market. MT told you about lower highs and lower lows...YOU BOUGHT AT THE TOP OF the LOWER LOW. Geez.

Ozzy
10-20-2004, 02:52 PM
Pat wrote:
Pat wrote:
You sound like those "Hold and Hopers" back in early 2000 that watched their investements go down 65%. Some people lost 80% plus and you sound like you have their mindset. You let your crap go down 5 to 10% and then get out...do not let your investments drop 50% because you did to go up 100% just to break even.

Is Market Timer still on this board? He told me to take a look on this board and it appears I am wasting my time with you BULLSSSSSSSS!.

The market will turn tomorrow, I do not want to miss out on a gain....GREED will drive you to the poor house.

Leaving this board...wasting my time here. MT is right you sound like you listen to those talking heads on TV and puke up their advice. I AM BULLISH! BUY TECH ON THE CHEAP, QUARTER 4 IS THE BEST QUARTER. BUY IN THE FALL.

By the way...the only good stock fund is the I fund becaue the U.S. is going into recession. Every time the crude has spiked it has happened...100% of the time.

Chasing away MT was a bad move. Moving on and making cash!





lkatteng wrote:

PATIENCE IS A PROFITABLE VIRTUE ! I do not take loses... the market will turn around if I stay long enough... next time I will wait till it goes lower and will get out early... now nothing I can do just wait with patience.... :zz
Patience is a profitable virtue ???? Hold and hope/pray/close eyesdoes not work in a bear market. MT told you about lower highs and lower lows...YOU BOUGHT AT THE TOP OF the LOWER HIGH. Geez. The major bear starts soon. BE READY. You really do sound like the people that lost 50% plus. Why did you let your investment go down 50%. BECAUSE I DO NOT TAKE LOSSES. HA HA.:^

Rod
10-20-2004, 02:56 PM
Pat wrote:
You sound loke those "Hold and Hopers" back in early 2000 that watched their investements go down 65%. Some people lost 80% plus and you sound like you have their mindset. You let your crap go down 5 to 10% and then get out...do not let your investments drop 50% because you did to go up 100% just to break even.

Is Market Timer still on this board? He told me to take a look on this board and it appears I am wasting my time with you BULLSSSSSSSS!.

The market will turn tomorrow, I do not want to miss out on a gain....GREED will drive you to the poor house.

Leaving this board...wasting my time here. MT is right you sound like you listen to those talking heads on TV and puke up their advice. I AM BULLISH! BUY TECH ON THE CHEAP, QUARTER 4 IS THE BEST QUARTER. BUY IN THE FALL.

By the way...the only good stock fund is the I fund becaue the U.S. is going into recession. Every time the crude has spiked it has happened...100% of the time.

Chasing away MT was a bad move. Moving on and making cash!






Are you sure you're not MT???;)

Your post has his classic signature of the quotes being on the bottom.

FWIW, tell him that I'm STILL waiting on his emails!!!:?

Rod
10-20-2004, 02:59 PM
Pat wrote:


Patience is a profitable virtue ???? Hold and hope/pray/close eyesdoes not work in a bear market. MT told you about lower highs and lower lows...YOU BOUGHT AT THE TOP OF the LOWER HIGH. Geez. The major bear starts soon. BE READY. You really do sound like the people that lost 50% plus. Why did you let your investment go down 50%. BECAUSE I DO NOT TAKE LOSSES. HA HA.:^


You sure are familiar with what MT has told us!!!;)

GOOD TO HAVE YOU BACK, MT!!!:^

cowboy
10-20-2004, 04:32 PM
Hi Pat! Your post is right on buddy anyone with a hold and hope theory is probably going to be jumping off a building somewhere. I would rather get out and lose $.20 and let the market go down then to set in it and hope it comes back. My reasoning is if it goes down another $.30 you made a dime when you bought back the shares with no risk if your setting G or F. :D

Oh by the way if your MT just post on this thread cause I like your advice!:^

Rod
10-21-2004, 02:21 AM
cowboy wrote:
Hi Pat! Your post is right on buddy anyone with a hold and hope theory is probably going to be jumping off a building somewhere. I would rather get out and lose $.20 and let the market go down then to set in it and hope it comes back. My reasoning is if it goes down another $.30 you made a dime when you bought back the shares with no risk if your setting G or F. :D

Oh by the way if your MT just post on this thread cause I like your advice!:^



MEEE TOO!!!!:^

Mike
10-21-2004, 02:49 AM
G fund holdings won't be worth anything if the gov't doesn't pay back what it borrowed from you to cover its debt. :shock:

BTW, for a recession to happen, GDP must go negative for two consecutive quarters. In spite of a mostly jobless recovery and high oil prices, the GDP will still manage about 4% growth this year... that's a long way from a recession.

Friendly reminder to those that care: each time the oil prices spike like this for an extended period of time, it benefits our economy in the long-term (although it obviously hurts in the short term)by making alternative energy sources competitive - thus encouraging greater investment in them which diminishes oil's influence on our economic output. In the 1970s, this type of oil price spike would bump us into a recession for sure. That no longer is the case.

TheProphet
10-21-2004, 07:49 AM
But I never know for sure 100% all the time if it going to be going up or down... But I know from history that if I stay long enough the fund will come back always with profit.. :^

By the way...

AN ALTERNATIVE RETIREMENT HOME

There will be no nursing home in my future.........

When I get old and feeble, I am going to get on a Princess Cruise Ship. The average cost for a nursing home is $200 per day. I have checked
on reservations at Princess and I can get a long term discount and senior discount price of $135 per day. That leaves $65 a day for:

1. Gratuities which will only be $10 per day.

2. I will have as many as 10 meals a day if I can waddle to the restaurant, or I can have room service
(which means I can have breakfast in bed every day of the week).

3. Princess has as many as three swimming pools, a workout room, free washers and dryers, and shows every night.

4. They have free toothpaste and razors, and free soap and shampoo.

5. They will even treat you like a customer, not a patient. An extra $5 worth of tips will have the entire staff scrambling to help you.

6. I will get to meet new people every 7or 14 days.

7. T.V. broken? Light bulb need changing? Need to have the mattress replaced? No Problem! They will fix everything and apologize for your inconvenience.

8. Clean sheets and towels every day, and you don't even have to ask for them.

9. If you fall in the nursing home and break a hip you are on Medicare. If you fall and break a hip on the Princess ship they will upgrade you to a suite for the rest of your life.

Now hold on for the best! Do you want to see South America, the Panama Canal, Tahiti, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, or name where you want to go? Princess will have a ship ready to go. So don't look for me in a nursing home, just call shore to ship.

P.S. And don't forget, when you die, they just dump you over the side at no charge.

Spaf
10-21-2004, 08:22 AM
LK
Hey that's good. Drop me a e-mail when U get ready. I'll make a reservation with U!

Now that's a plan!

cowboy
10-21-2004, 09:24 AM
Mike wrote:
G fund holdings won't be worth anything if the gov't doesn't pay back what it borrowed from you to cover its debt. :shock:

BTW, for a recession to happen, GDP must go negative for two consecutive quarters. In spite of a mostly jobless recovery and high oil prices, the GDP will still manage about 4% growth this year... that's a long way from a recession.

Friendly reminder to those that care: each time the oil prices spike like this for an extended period of time, it benefits our economy in the long-term (although it obviously hurts in the short term)by making alternative energy sources competitive - thus encouraging greater investment in them which diminishes oil's influence on our economic output. In the 1970s, this type of oil price spike would bump us into a recession for sure. That no longer is the case.



I don't think it matters what fund your in if they borrow from the TSP it will be covered by all the funds. Basically the government is going to take a lions share of your funds when you retire and it knows how much is in the funds that it will receive so basically their borrowing from themselves. They just give it to you to make you think your gaining more then you really are. My theory is they give you a 5% matching annually to encourage you to save knowing full well that when you withdraw you will be paying Uncle Sam back the percentage of the money depending what tax bracket your in. So basically it works as a savings account for the government also. The scary part is the politicians are borrowing from the savings to pay for special interest that everyone feels they need.

On another note yahoo has a question on which party has helped the market the most in the past, and to my suprise the democratic party was in office when the markets did the best. They always claim the republican party is for businesses but that seems to be a false statement.

Paul
10-21-2004, 09:48 AM
Yea but how many times has a Democrat inherited an economy on the upswing and a Republican inherited an economy on the downswing. Has anyone ever looked at that little statistic?

cowboy
10-21-2004, 10:29 AM
Paul wrote:
Yea but how many times has a Democrat inherited an economy on the upswing and a Republican inherited an economy on the downswing. Has anyone ever looked at that little statistic?



I knew that someone would make this comment. It always happens when you fool with politics. I guess the market doesn't care if the republican party inheritedon a downswing.Maybe you should ask yahoo to look it up! I am guessing here but maybe the market is going to go up until election day now and when Bush wins the market will start going down this kind of matches the chart where Tom was talking about Kangaroo tails. We just of well have Kangaroos, we have donkeys and elephants trying to drive the market!:D

TheProphet
10-21-2004, 10:57 AM
Interested observacion... so if the economy are meant to go down... the democrats will win... if the economy is meant to go up the republican will win...

I also think the market will go up till election... but if Bush will it will continue going up till mid January... if Kerry wins.. it will have a quick correct till December and the and up rebounce till mid January... after January... it may be bear till next September or so... but I do not have a crystal balls... and I may be totally wrong... :*

cowboy
10-21-2004, 11:11 AM
lkatteng wrote:
Interested observacion... so if the economy are meant to go down... the democrats will win... if the economy is meant to go up the republican will win...

I also think the market will go up till election... but if Bush will it will continue going up till mid January... if Kerry wins.. it will have a quick correct till December and the and up rebounce till mid January... after January... it may be bear till next September or so... but I do not have a crystal balls... and I may be totally wrong... :*





LOL!:DSure didn't mean to scramble your beanie buddy! Aren't you glad it is human nature to forget 90% of what you read, especially when it comes to politics.

TheProphet
10-21-2004, 11:46 AM
I already vote my friend... :^ I am a cool guy... :zzHave a Super Great Day... :^

tsptalk
10-21-2004, 07:01 PM
cowboy wrote:
On another note yahoo has a question on which party has helped the market the most in the past, and to my suprise the democratic party was in office when the markets did the best. They always claim the republican party is for businesses but that seems to be a false statement.

As someone pointed out a while back, the democratic president had a republican congress.

Mike
10-21-2004, 09:45 PM
If you assume the business cycle to be roughly 10 years, this is what we've had:

2001/02 - recession - Bush took office January 20th, thus "inheriting a recession".

1991/92 - recession - this ended in early 1992 but by then, voter sentiment was set and Bushlost because of it.

1981/82 - recession - Reagan inherited this one.

So, we've had the last three recessions under Republican presidents. As long as the business cycle is a fact of our economic life, whoever is president in 2011-12 will get the next one. It's inescapable. The only thing these guys can do is try to speed up the recovery / make the recession milder. Beyond that, they can't really *prevent* one. As economies grow rapidly, more people make more money and make more speculative (read: risky or stupid) investments. As more of these investments fail, it inevitably reaches a breaking point where overall economic growth slows and then declines for a time (thus putting the brakes on speculative investment). This is when the more reliable investment takes over and growth resumes. Certainly, there are external shocks involved, such as terrorism, oil problems, etc - but in the grand scheme of things, the business cycle is fairly predictable.

cowboy
10-22-2004, 10:19 AM
LOL!:DI guess I opened a can of worms! I got to agree with you Mike that the recessions run in cycles. Thats why Ithink who's President is not going to make much difference to the market.

It's a great nation we have here, that we can express our opinions because I believe that for every action there has to be a cause and an effect. Sooner or later we have to realize that we won't have it if we bleed it to death.

TheProphet
10-22-2004, 11:17 AM
If I look the market history since the 30's 40's 50's...2000's... the market always comeback up... I take no looses !!! It is my rule !!! ONLY PROFITS !!!I may go for the ride for awhile... But I always come out of the market with a BIG SMILE !!! :u

Leon :^