P&F Chart School [Archive] - TSP Talk Forums

James48843

11-17-2007, 05:45 AM

What makes P&F Charts different is that is shows trends, without regard to time. By that I mean that it shows the ups and downs, and it doesn't matter if it was up over a three-year period or a three day period, the left-to-right has no real connection to time. It IS marked with dates, but they don't have to be equal horizontally. For example, in the chart above, the years of 2005 and 2006 are shown, but you see the year 2007 has more ups and downs that the previous two years, therefore it is extending out to the right more.

First point: P&F charts show upward and downward move trends, not linear time.

The BEST place for learning the basics is this website at this link: For more in-depth reading, see: http://www.tradejuice.com/technical-analysis/point-figure-charts.html

There you will find a much better school than I can offer here- as they explain the X's and O's with tables, and I haven't yet figured out how to place HTML tables within this TSPTALK boards.

James48843

11-17-2007, 05:51 AM

X's simply represent when the stock is moving in a postive fashion.

O's simply represent when the stock is headed down.

BUT: A column of X's only becomes a column of O's when you've retraced a significant amount. You can have a little fall back, and not get the reversal signal to change from an "X" to an "O".

From "Stockcharts.com":

Here is the best explanation of how P&F charts work. I tried to cut and paste from here, but without success. My advice is to take a few minutes, and read, and digest, this:

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=support:understanding_pnf_charts

POINT TO REMEMBER: Is it important to remember that P&F charts do not show time in a linear fashion. Each column can represent one day, or many days, depending on the price movement. Because P&F charts filter out the noise associated with more traditional charting methods, every mark on the chart is significant.

James48843

11-17-2007, 06:02 AM

I was asked "What do the numbers in red mean on the right hand side of the chart?"

Answer: You'll see two numbers there. The first one in this particular chart is red at 1458.7. That number represents exactly where the stock price is now, at the time the chart was created. In this case, the chart was made at the close of business on November 16th, when the S&P500 was at 1458.74.

The second number you see lower is 1350.0 PO.

PO stands for "Price Objective". That is the point that the chart is predicting to go before things turn around. If the chart presumes the trend is down, it is how far down before you meet your price objective, and either "sell", or change direction. And if the predicted price objective is lower, the color will be RED.

If the price objective is higher, the number will be GREEN rather than red.

POINT: P&F Charts can help you decide whether to be an active trader on the rebounds, or to sit out of the market altogether. Right now it is telling it that it looks like the S&P may have a long way down before reversal. But it also allows us, if we so choose, to try and capture the upswings in volitility (knife catching). The Price Objective points help us figure out if we are changing directions in trend.

James48843

11-17-2007, 06:04 AM

BLUE LINES: The blue line underneath is a kind of a long-term trend. Kind of like the 200-day moving averages on regular charts, but not exactly. The formal name for the heavy blue line is:

THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE.

The thing to remember is that when signals appear ABOVE the bullish support line, they mean something different than if the signal appears BELOW the bullish support line. More on that later. That info is for about P&F Chart Class 303, and we're still dealing with 101 here. Any sell signals given above this line should be disregarded. This means the share should not be sold until the first sell signal after the bullish support line has been penetrated.

If the blue line (BULLISH SUPPORT LINE) is broken downward, however, a red line appears over the top side, trending down. Red lines show negative trends.

Officially, the red line is called a BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE.

Any buy signals given below this line should be disregarded. This means shares should not be purchased until the first buy signal given after penetration of the bearish resistance line.

Other than those two terms, the P&F chart opens up a whole new world of ways to look at things. You are looking at exactly the same price amounts of stock shares, but now you are looking at them in terms of overall trends, and where they are in relationship to where they have historically been, instead of simply looking at the ups and downs of candlestick linear charts.

Are P&F charts THE solution?

Nope. Not at all. They can't change world hunger, or war, or save us from the sub-prime fiasco.

But the DO add a whole new dimension for HOW to look at what you are seeing, and then serve as an additional data point from which to make YOUR OWN decision.

I won't tell you when to buy or sell. YOU have to make your own decision on that.

But YOU can learn a whole lot more when your world opens up and you see new tools to understand.

James48843

11-17-2007, 06:09 AM

That's all for now. This is lesson one. There is much more to come in the days ahead, but I've got to go now.

Go read those several links I posted above, and you'll learn a lot more about P&F charts. It's well worth the read.

P&F charts were created a long time ago, before the age of computers. Anyone with a simple piece of graph paper could create one with the morning newspaper stock price quotes, and a pencil, and update them on a daily basis in a few minutes. When computers came along, people had new and more indepth knowledge, and could create all kinds of charts, and P&F charts kind of fell out of favor.

But P&F charts are now being "rediscovered" by a new generation. And they can help you clear the clutter of the day-to-day swings, and see things in a new perspective. I only discovered them about a year ago, but I have learned already that they can become very valuable when the market starts swinging all over the place.

Good luck, and happy investing.

airlift

11-17-2007, 10:01 AM

James I haven't had the time to read your new thread in detail, but it is great. Keep up the fine work.

presskh

11-17-2007, 10:20 AM

James I haven't had the time to read your new thread in detail, but it is great. Keep up the fine work.

Agree - thanks for taking the time to create this link. It is very interesting and informative and we appreciate your time and effort.

ATCHUNTman

11-17-2007, 01:48 PM

Thanks James!

hessian

11-18-2007, 07:05 AM

Hi James,
Nice school. Started the "mandatory" reding for "clasa 101" - not so bad (its short/easy). I find you don't need to lear Ever detail, but its background for what going to come/what you'll be showing us. Congrats! Anyway, have a great vaction and look forwrd to return, for when you're ready to sart of "class 202". :)
VR

James48843

11-19-2007, 10:13 AM

Hessian:

I wrote extensively last night and this morning in my account talk thread. the breakdown below 1440 on the S&P just resulted in a big red bearish resistance line appearing this morning.

So I am licking my wounds, and moving totally over to a 50/50 mix of G and F, until things settle down, and I have a chance to think about my losses, and reasses when and where I want to get back in.

I'm out of the markets as of today.

hessian

11-19-2007, 11:27 AM

Hi James,
Yes, I saw the p&f chart red Bearish Resistance Line form too, it looked real ugly - glad to have you confirm!!!! (BTW, I did also see your "Talk Forum" posts too).

I made it out too!
I think I may need a stiches, maybe turniket (sp?) for my wounds. :o
Oh well, I guess we see how far this goes, I guess now expect quite a ways! I'll listen for a "clank" of when the bottom hits, or maybe a "spash."
By then, I should be healed up OK, and then By back in to make up losses - and then some! :rolleyes:
That's the way its supposed to work anyway, right? :cool:

But seriously, by the p&f charts, maybe it would be good to post what we all should look for as the new "real" bottom (vs maybe if you can tell just a temporary "buy" correction in the p&f charts)...

Anyway, thanks again the confirmation, and for helping me out (literally)!
VR

hessian

11-19-2007, 03:36 PM

Hey James,
Just curious - see link belowe for the EAFE p&F chart - three red "Os" added, but no Support break, no red "Bearish Resistance Line" today, or even close (that I can tell)...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=efa&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979

(click on p&F at the bottom)

James48843

11-19-2007, 06:10 PM

hessian

11-19-2007, 08:29 PM

No bearish resistance line because the bullish support line (blue) is so far down below. The falling dollar has a lot to do with how far up the EFA has come since 2002.

It is possible that there could be a LOT of O's straight down before it ever made it to a red line appearing. However, that still means we have some opportunities to jump in on upticks, where I would NOT do the same right now with the S&P. Later -J

Thanks James,
Hmmmmm, think its wait and see. I assume, as usual, OSMs will follow USMs, so tomorrow OSMs will likely be terrible! However,... if tomorrow we get a DCB - then Thurs & Fri could be good days for OSMs, maybe even Monday. Still, likely any possible gains, are outweighed by the risks. OSMs could remain in trepidation - but it is intriguing.
VR

James48843

11-19-2007, 10:09 PM

Yep.

Japan opens lower tonight, going down big time. Now showing the Nikkei as being down http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 5.52 (-1.87%)as of 11:00 pm.

The thing to look for, by the way, on that big string of "O's" is a three box X reversal. If it doesn't make it three boxes up, then it's not a buy signal. You have to have three boxes of movement for the price reversal to show up as X's rather than simply higher O's in the same column.

But again, with this kind of up and down movement- it's really more like knife catching than a true bottom and reversal signal.

Catching a knife can cause very, very bloody fingers.

Be careful out there, ya hear?

http://www.householdphysician.com/images/ch17_35.jpg

hessian

11-19-2007, 11:09 PM

Not trying to be arguementative - just inquisitive. Please don't take offense:
In order for three or moe boxes to show up we'd have to see a darn good uptrend - at least a full 2 to 3 point, maybe 4 increase of 79 to 81 to 83.0 price (that's a bout a 3% to 5% increase). Seems that this misseses the rize I'd hope to catch (short term - out Fri.) On other hand, if we don't see any more red Os, or those that appeared today (as are red) disapper, leaving less than previous (or numbers adjust), this could mean go for it (by noon).

It just that it seems that on this chart, the Blue line so far away, the USMs would have to fall really far for the OSMs to reach that Blue Support . If there's a DCB and USM go up - just seems to me why wait?

hessian

11-20-2007, 12:16 PM

Hi James,
I feel confident that your heart is true - always desiring to give folks best advice possible (and as a result sometimes feel conflict in wanting to protect folks like me, and maybe folks new to the "sport). I know that I'f fell this way if roles were reversed, as I have experieced the same thing in other aspects of my life. Anyway, up front I wanted to say thank you sincerely for those concerns. Also that you should feel good in having given the best advice and of yourself - in giving of your heart and soul, in your responses. Having done all that, never feel responsible for actions that others may take. :)

Looking forward to getting back to Class discussions.

James48843

11-20-2007, 08:28 PM

In order for three or moe boxes to show up we'd have to see a darn good uptrend - at least a full 2 to 3 point, maybe 4 increase of 79 to 81 to 83.0 price (that's a bout a 3% to 5% increase).

No offesne taken in the least. One thing to remember here is that you will not get any X's, until it rises enough to make three or more X's above the bottom. Under the P&F chart way to doing it, you will only get movement within the O column, UNTIL you have enough movement to make three X's. Now an "X" can reflect a portion of a dollar, or a full dollar, or ten dollars, etc. When, for example, the price of a stock is five bucks a share, the X's represent .10 cents at a shot. The size of what the box represents is directly porportional to the altitude at which the price is.

Seems that this misseses the rize I'd hope to catch (short term - out Fri.) On other hand, if we don't see any more red Os, or those that appeared today (as are red) disapper, leaving less than previous (or numbers adjust), this could mean go for it (by noon).

By all means, you are free to make what ever decisions you would like with your own account- it's YOUR money, and you decide what is best for you.

I guess I better clarify here- the purpose of this thread is to learn more about this one theory of charting- P&F charts. Whether YOU decide to follow that theory is totally up to you. I am going to follow it for a while, because I have found it useful. I am NOT necessarily using it relating to the "I" fund, because the "I" fund has other varibles thrown in which I am not sure yet really reflect the same amount of usefulness. Specifically, the change in the value of the dollar does have an affect on the results shown on the chart. So you won't break through that blue line until either the dollar reverses direction significantly, OR the values of overseas stocks tumble, or a combination of both. On the other hand, the use of the P&F chart for following "C" or "S" is different, and had more relevant "visuals" for me.

It just that it seems that on this chart, the Blue line so far away, the USMs would have to fall really far for the OSMs to reach that Blue Support . If there's a DCB and USM go up - just seems to me why wait?

You may want to go ahead and dive in- that's your call and that is fine with me. I am just trying to explain the P&F chart theory, so that IF you choose to lend any weight to it in your own decision making, you can have one more tool in your list of tools to use to help you decide, that's all.

What the P&F chart is doing for me right now is allowing me to see very clearly the intermediate term trend. Down. Rather than focus on the day-to-day ups and downs.

Part of me wants to jump back in and try and catch the wave. Another part of me says that the P&F chart history is more inclined to result in lower, not higher, prices a week or two from now, and it may be better to wait until things settle down before wading back in.

So I am going to wait a bit more, until I see some other indicators, before deciding what to do. P&F chart is one thing I take into account. The odds of an interest rate cut on Dec 11th is another thing I will take into account. Price of oil nearing $100 a barrel again is another thing to take into account. More sub-prime fiasco news is another thing to take into account. The change today in forecasted GDP growth next year, and higher unemployment next year is another thing I am going to take into account. Targetr same-store sales being down is another thing I am going to take into account. etc, etc, etc, all have an influence in the ultimate decision - which is ....where will my money perform the best for me in the days and weeks ahead.

Right now- not sure. So am sitting on the sidelines.

that's it. No big deal, just another datapoint to consider.

James48843

11-20-2007, 08:45 PM

ON your EFA chart- today's higher close means three X's stay in place, above the blue support line. Typically indicitive of a "Buy" signal under P&F chart theroy. If you choose to follow it- you probably will be right. More power to you.

I, however, am going to sit a while and think, however.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=EFA,P&listNum=

Take a look at that EFA P&F Chart, back in the 2002-2003 period, bottom left hand side. The last time we had seven O's, followed by three X's up, it then reversed and within a short time when down two more times.

the column I am looking at from 2002 lookes like this:

6
0
0
7
0 X
0 X
0 X
0

That COULD be where we are today- at the three X's up part in the first part of that cycle. The it tanks down later on, a lot further down.

Not sure, really. Only time will tell.

RPM

11-21-2007, 01:43 AM

Sunnyskies

11-21-2007, 08:05 AM

James, thanks for teaching about P&F charts. It's really helped.

I have a question -- what do the numbers/letters within the columns mean.

RPM

11-21-2007, 09:32 AM

James, thanks for teaching about P&F charts. It's really helped.

I have a question -- what do the numbers/letters within the columns mean.

That one, I do know. 1 through C are the months of the year, 1=Jan, 2=Feb, etc... Since P&F charts are independent of dates, the date notations show when that part of the chart got started...

James48843

11-21-2007, 10:48 AM

That one, I do know. 1 through C are the months of the year, 1=Jan, 2=Feb, etc... Since P&F charts are independent of dates, the date notations show when that part of the chart got started...

Correct-

1=Jan
2=Feb
3=Mar
4=Apr
5=May
6=Jun
7=Jul
8=Aug
9=Sep
A=Oct
B=Nov
C=Dec

The number or letter is where ever the price was on the LAST trading day of that month.

James48843

11-21-2007, 11:00 AM

James:

Thank you for this very clear explanation of this chart. I have been trying to read it through the various web sites, and not having much luck understanding it. Seeing you explain the chart as the market changes makes things a lot easier to understand.

I do have some questions on the current P&F charts of the following:

$INDU: "Descending triple bottom breakdown on Nov 20 2007" "Bearish price obj (rev??) met (12900)"

Here is a great place to learn about all the different chart formations, and what they mean:

http://www.tradejuice.com/technical-analysis/point-figure-charts.html

Here is a triple bottom:

http://www.surefire-trading.com/tsl/images/l77/TripleBottom.gif

And here is a Triple Top
http://www.surefire-trading.com/tsl/images/l77/TripleTop.gif

Patterns ar created by the movement of the share price within the range of existing data. If the price moves up or down MORE than three units of price, then you get a reversal signal (changing from O's (down) to X's(up).

But the pattern created is just one of the factors to consider.

When to Buy and Sell

When analysing the charts to determine the best time to buy and sell shares, the following criteria must be evaluated:

1. Patterns
2. Trend Lines
3. Market Indicators
4. Price Objectives (PO).

What you are asking about is the first criteria in determining when is a good time to buy and sell. It's 1. the pattern present. A good start is recognizing what the pattern present is. It can tell you where the stock has been. But by itself, it cannot tell you more than that.

So the answer to your first part of your first question, you ask: what is a "descending triple bottom breakdown"?

Answer: It means that it has hit at least two equal lows, (represented by the O's,) and then hit another, lower descending O.

James48843

11-21-2007, 11:33 AM

Then you asked: What does this mean:

"Bearish price obj (rev??) met (12900)"

It means that the Bearish price objective (PO), which is what the chart HAD been predicting as the current bottom line, based on data, has been met.

"(rev.)" means Revised. They may have originally calculated a bearish price objective to the downside higher than where is it now, based on the FIRST triple bottom breakdown which occured earlier. Then, when the chart broke downward again, it created a new, revised lower level that the chart predicted it would go before turning around. That becomes the "Bearish price objective (revised) has been met."

Here is that chart, as of right this very minute (12:32 am.)

2644

James48843

11-21-2007, 11:39 AM

As you can see in that chart, we no longer have the informaton displayed about a triple bottom breakdown, instead it now says "no new P&F formation".

And since we have postive movement yesterday, you see the three green X's have appeared at the bottom right of the formation.

Since it already met the current forecasted bottom price objective (12900), you won't see anything more for a while, until the chart decides which direction it is going in. And since we are below a "Bearish Resistance Line" *(the red line on the top), the three new green X's are not yet considered a buy signal. Instead, we would have to wait until the X's are strong enough to generate a NEW blue Bullish Support line before reentering the market.

Hope that makes sense.

James48843

11-21-2007, 11:42 AM

One thing to keep in mind about the buy and sell signals in a P&F chart.

They won't get you INTO the stock at the bottom. You have to wait until there is a clear trend before obeying the buy signals.

And they won't get you OUT of a stock at the absolute top. Again, they won't trigger a sell signal until after the crest has been reached, and they are on the way back down.

But what it CAN do is give you a way to get in, and then get out at a level higher than you got in at. And THAT is the way to be successful in the long run.

If they do in fact go through with this stupid trade limit of two per month, perhaps the P&F may be the ONLY way to make money.

We'll have to see.

James48843

11-21-2007, 11:50 AM

OK- back to chart school.

RPM, you asked:

"$NDX: "Bearish triangle breakdown on 20-Nov-2007"
"Bearish price obj (REV??) 1750"

Ok- first, your symbol of $NDX had a bearish triagle.

There are two types of triagle formations: Bullish, and Bearish.

Both triangle formations consist of higher bottoms and lower tops, generally with all prices contained between the bullish support and bearish resistance lines. The signals for the triangle formations are the first Double Top or Double Bottom signals.

Here is what a Bullish triangle looks like:

http://www.surefire-trading.com/tsl/images/l77/BullishTriangle.gif

And here is what a Bearish triangle looks like:

http://www.surefire-trading.com/tsl/images/l77/BearishTriangle.gif

The Bearish Triangle Projected (and, in this case, again, revised) Price Objective (PO) is now 1750. They think that the price is headed down, and they predict the bottom will be somewhere around 1750 before things turn around.

That projection is based on the RATE of the stock's fall, as well as the suport levels previously seen in the stock. If there is a big, open gap down before you see a lot of sideways movement, you can expect the stock to fall quite a ways before it's going to level out. Not necessarily all the way down to the last suport level show on a conventional chart, because the longer a stock has been at higher levels, the less likely it is to fall a great deal. However, this is a calculation that takes both the past suport levels, and the sidways movement into account.

James48843

11-21-2007, 11:57 AM

IN this case, your symbol $NDX, or the Nasdaq 100, is showing a brand new red Bearish Resistance Line above, it is in a downward spirial, (a new red O created today) and the new projected low that it will reach is down at 1750.

Today the index is at 2010, but the P&F chart says it may go down all the way to 1750 before hitting a reversal. That would be down to the levels of last March. Ouch.

If, however, we have some rebound action over the course of the next couple weeks, it COULD create a new, blue BULLISH SUPPORT LINE, in which case the price objective will change.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

James48843

11-21-2007, 12:10 PM

And finally, RPM, you had your third index, The S&P 500, which stated on the P&F chart:

[quote]$SPX:"Descending triple bottom breakdown on 20-Nov-2007" Bearish price obj (Rev.) 1350"{/quote]

Again, it means that it is passing through a triple bottom formation, breaking downward, and that the new, revised lower Price Objective is now set at 1350. They think the chart is showing 1350 on the downside before reversal. That COULD change, but that is what it is saying right now.

Again, those are all instances of target prices based only on Patterns. The P&F chart uses more than just patterns, to figure out when to buy and sell.

1. Patterns - That's your "Triple Bottom Breakdown"

2. Trend Lines - Those are your Bearish Resistance Lines and Bullish Support Lines.

3. Market Indicators - This is wild card here- what outside influences are being down on the price. Is there a rate cut coming? War in the middle east? Price of Oil got people down? An election around the corner, and people have uncertainty over who will win?

4. Price Objectives (PO). This is the mechincal price the charts THINK the price will get to, before a major change in direction. One thing to remember is that the Price Objective is strictly based on where the stock has been, and what it is doing now, independant of any other stock indicator. That is why the S&P Price Objective can be telling us it is going down to 1350, yet other stocks may not be headed down so far. The P&F chart is ignorant of what stocks are the actual stocks which compose the S&P 500.

If you had the time, you COULD go out to each one of those 500 stocks, check THIER P&F chart Price Objectives, and probably would find a much different number if you totaled them all up .

But then again, sometimes it's just easier to sit back in the G fund and watch things go south.

That's enough P&F Chart School class for today. MY head hurts from seeing all the red once again in the market. We'll pick up some more another day.

Class dismissed.

RPM

11-21-2007, 01:45 PM

Sunnyskies

11-21-2007, 03:08 PM

Thanks RPM and James.

presskh

11-21-2007, 03:19 PM

Nice call on the market, James. Thanks for the very informative thread. Have a nice Thanksgiving! :)

James48843

11-21-2007, 04:37 PM

James

Thank you very much for the excellent teaching. I do have another question, for another day of teaching:

What is a "high pole warning"? I think it might be on the $MSEAFE P&F chart.

Happy Thanksgivings!

RPM-

Go back and look at the chart again now. Today's close makes it is triple bottom breakdown.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$MSEAFE,P&listNum=

And in just a second here- I'll explain what a "high pole warning" is.

(Got to go get a graphic ready for you.)

James48843

11-21-2007, 04:40 PM

RPM

11-21-2007, 04:53 PM

The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future.

(How do you do a table in this message board?)

James,

Thanks, it was on SPY that I saw that warning. As to the MSEAFE, why does it say 20-Nov when it's actually today that the breakdown occurs? I don't remember seeing it yesterday...

As to attaching table, maybe just do a table and attach file like any other attachment, using the clip icon above for .doc (if table is in Word).

Again, thanks very much for all your teaching. I also stay out of the market, since I started looking at the charts, and all of them have downward signs on the indicators that I follow (mainly SLO STO, daily and weekly). I am also weary about being one of the 3000 "daytraders" who will be getting the TSP letter :rolleyes:

Happy Thanksgiving!

James48843

11-21-2007, 05:12 PM

RPM:

First, never ever give in.

They haven't changed the regulation yet. It is up to us to rally enough pressure to stop the change.

It can be done. We just have to set our minds to it.

Apply pressure. This is the government of the people, by the people, for the people. Do not let it perish from the earth.

Apply pressure. Demand that they do not make this change.

I know I am going to.

Will you do your part?

Flood the TSP's phone line.

Flood Saul's Congressional Campaign office phone voice mail.

tell them all NO - NOT WITH MY MONEY YOU DON'T!

hessian

11-21-2007, 07:53 PM

Hi James,
Classes working well so far it seems (maybe getting ahead a little - re: class101, but I expect it cant be helped), but interest is sure gaining!! Highly recommended!!!

Gonna try your atachment:
1. Below select > "Manage Attachments" , > select .jpg, .bmp, whatever, then select > browse, to find the file on the computer. (- me, I place on my desktop so I can find 'em easy).
Then select > upload the file.

NEXT, click on/select > the paper clip (or use its down arrow) - in the tools at the top/above the "reply window," and select "ADD", and that's it... You will see - until you hit the "Submit Reply" button. (make sure it has at least one a line by itself)
[ATTACH]2648
BTW please let me know - is the $MSEAFE or the $EFA the correct chart to be using for the "I" Fund??
VR

James48843

11-21-2007, 08:18 PM

Got it to work- Thanks Hessian.

Here is the Triple Bottom attachment. Let's give this a shot:

2650

hessian

11-21-2007, 09:09 PM

James48843

11-21-2007, 10:54 PM

For some reason my question ended up way ay the bottom...
Please let me know - is the $MSEAFE or EFA is the correct chart to be using for the "I" Fund! - as the correct p&f to be reading on StockCharts??
VR

Sorry- I missed that question.

The actual answer is ... neither is EXACTLY the I fund.

The EFA is just an ETF(exchange traded fund) of the EAFE. It gets traded through out the day along with the US market.
It is not the same thing as our I fund, which is based on a mirror of the the MSCI EAFE. MS being Morgan Stanley.

Unfortunately, there is no EXACT index that we can track for our I fund, although the MSCI EAFE is about as darn close as you can come.

If you are using the MSCIEAFE, you'll see almost exactly what our "I" fund is, and that should be close enough to make P&F chart informational assesments to input into your decision making.

Thanks

Jim

hessian

11-23-2007, 12:57 PM

Hi James,
Thanks. I wll be out-of-pocket for at least a couple days (have to see if I can get a dial-up to work - temp.). Anyway just wanted to say thatnk for the answer. Interesting , they look almost the same (as of Wed.) - anyway I'm all bailed (safe back in G now (for that penny on Mon., likely for the week)! Markets just too crazy.

Just 1 question, any reason there is neither bullish, or bearish lines drane on the $MSEAFE? Just curious (the EFA p&f does show a "Bullish Support Line".) Maybe p&f charts don't have to show any, if none is indicated?

James48843

11-23-2007, 01:34 PM

Hi James,
...
Just 1 question, any reason there is neither bullish, or bearish lines drane on the $MSEAFE? Just curious (the EFA p&f does show a "Bullish Support Line".) Maybe p&f charts don't have to show any, if none is indicated?

I dont' know why. Perhaps it is because the BullishSupport line may be way below (and off the chart) where we are now on that one.

We have NOT broken the bullish support line area on the $MSEAFE, to the best I can trace a guess at where it should be. But that chart only goes back into 2006, so it may be existing well below and off the chart.

I'm sticking on the sidelines until at least next week, while we let things settle a little. The "Black Friday" effect is in force today, and we'll have to wait until we hear what retail results were over the next couple days. If retail spending was good, we MAY have a good december. But if retail spending was down below estimates, we'll likely continue to struggle around here.

Have a good vacation.

Jim

James48843

11-26-2007, 05:10 PM

Ok- back to Chart School.

Today, we continue with the downward momentum. That is fine, we are out of the market sitting on the sidelines. Please take note of both the "formation", a descending Pole formation that officially was recorded as a triple bottom breakdown back on November 20th, and the predicted "Price Objective.

(See earlier lesson on a triple bottom breakdown. )

2681

As we are still in a descending "Bearish Resistance Line" formation, we are not yet ready to buy back. We sit safely on the sidelines collecting the F fund earnings, while waiting for the best opportunity to buy back in. We sold when we got the "triple bottom breakdown" indication to sell back on November 19th, when the C fund was at 1440.

There still appears to be downward pressue.

Note one (Note 1) shows where we ended up today, after Friday's bounce back showed a fake out up.

Note two (Note 2) states the "predicted price objective". That is where the P&F chart is saying we should expect to see a turnaround. We are now about 60 points above that figure.

I don't know if I am going to wait until we hit that Price Objective, or if I may start buying in earlier using the dollar cost average method. In my opinion we're going to see more down action tomorrow, and probably wednesday as well. That MAY be the opportunity to get back in- at least partially. If it does drop below 1380, be prepared to buy in at these levels. Good deal.

Remember- right now the P&F chart is telling us to expect 1350. I last sold at 1440, so anywhere here buying back in is profitable. I am not going to wait all the way to 1350, unless things change. I do predict more ups and downs and we float downward. P&F theory says not to buy back until the ups penetrate the red line upward. However, I may go earlier than that, as the market is clearly lower than when I sold- so anything here is gravey to me.

remeber this: Pigs get fat. Hogs get eaten. If we are 5% better off when we rebuy, we've improved. Don't get caught waiting to long, and missing the chance to buy back at a lower cost trying to scroe the big score. There will be more chances like this ahead.

I will be looking at possible buying opportunties soon- perhaps as early as Wednesday, particularly of the market continues this descent.

Price objective today shows 1350.

We'll see.

James48843

11-28-2007, 01:13 AM

Are we out of the woods yet?

Not by a long shot.

Today's rebound is just letting off some VX steam. You'll notice that we have a lower high than before, each of these rebounds continue to try, but we're just not ready yet to bottom out.

Take a close look at today's S&P P&F chart:

2709

You'll notice that we rebounded a little today, but not enough to create a new series of "X"s.

Eight O's down, then five Xs up, then eight zeros down, and ths rebound wasn't even as strong up as the last one. Losing the steam.

Where do we go from here?

I think we're back down again, at least near the low from day before yesterday.

After that- it could go either way.

Remember, there are four different influences on where we head.

1. Patterns - That's your "Triple Bottom Breakdown" back on Nov 20th. Nothing has changed.

2. Trend Lines - Those are your Bearish Resistance Lines and Bullish Support Lines. The red line is still in effect, and we are below the blue line. nothing has changed, so we disregard any set of three buy signal X that might appear.

3. Market Indicators - This is wild card here- what outside influences are being down on the price. Is there a rate cut coming? War in the middle east? Price of Oil got people down? An election around the corner, and people have uncertainty over who will win?

Today that was pumped by news of Abu Dabi buying Citibank shares. Not much else in the news to brighten things.

4. Price Objectives (PO). This is the mechincal price the charts THINK the price will get to, before a major change in direction. One thing to remember is that the Price Objective is strictly based on where the stock has been, and what it is doing now, independant of any other stock indicator.

Outside factors could play in tomorrow- like they did today- like the Citibank infusion of cash from Abu Dabi.

A nice, one day good news story.

But it still doesn't change the fact that the economy is not as strong as many thought just a few months ago.

Price objective still 1350.

Today's market doesn't change that at all.

RPM

11-28-2007, 01:48 AM

James:

Have you looked at the weekly charts with SLO STO at all? these charts show the 2 market dips this year very clearly, and if we can find good exit/entry points from SLO STO, then we'd only need to do a few IFT a year, which would fit well into the new TSP board scheme of things. Personally, I am also getting tired to the whiplash of moving in/out of the market on a daily basis, so I have been studying the charts to find a slower way to do things. From these weekly charts, if I can find way to dodge most of the dips, and get some of the rise, I'd be very happy! Would appreciate any input from you. TIA.

James48843

11-29-2007, 12:34 AM

Yes, I've seen the SLO STO charts- but I am not very familiar with them. Sorry, can't help you on that one.

I am blown away by what happened today. I wasn't expecting that, and I am tdy- so I can not take advantage of the info during the day.

Too bad.

I still think we'll get one more down move, though.

Today's action moved up six X's. I think we'll fade down nearly to that low- maybe not all the way, but lower than here. If we do again, I'll look hard at buying back in. If not, I may have missed the boat. We'll know at this time next week.

James48843

11-29-2007, 12:47 AM

That one threw me, and took me by surprize today.

I'm TDY, so I didn't see the markets at all today.

Missed the fun.

While I was expecting an uptick soon, that one today was much bigger than I was expecting.

2716

As you can see- six X's up. I was expecting maybe 2, for a total of five, and then another settling back. Must have been more money pouring in, or other outside influence that caused it to jump that much.

We got a new P&F Chart indicator today.

The triple bottom breakdown was replaced with a low pole up.

If it wasn't for the red line hard above, that would normally be a buy indicator in P&F charting.

However, with the red line above, the cards say to wait.

We're still within the downward trading track- that red line above continues to tell us that we're not out of the woods yet.

I'm unchanged from yesterday-

let's just call it "practice" for the TSP two moves and then you are restricted to the sidelines.

If THAT happens, I'm toast, and I have to completely rethink how I want to do investing.

Gut tells me higher tomorrow, then lower Friday and maybe even monday. We'll see.

James48843

11-29-2007, 09:19 PM

Gut tells me higher tomorrow, then lower Friday and maybe even monday. We'll see.

Well, today went just about as I expected. Ended up, but only slightly. I think tomorrow will be a profit taking day in the S&P, but probably only a little bit.

Let's recap then where we stand today in the S&P 500 chart:

2719

That big, bright red line overhead is still there. That's the Bearish resistance line, and we are below it, so we don't jump onto what normally in an up market would be the buy signals. We sit tight, and wait for a better entry point, as the Price Objective remains unchanged, and we're still not sure if the downside is finished. All the trading continues so far within that downside track. Although I am the first to admit that the up yesterday was at least a full block X higher than I was expecting it to be- which is good- an indicator that there is money out there ready to come back in once we're sure we've changed direction.

The red Bearish Resistance line and the blue Bullish Support line are now converging soon. One of them is going to be the breakout. Will it be a break down, towards our Price Objective, or will it be a break to the upside?

Normally, I'd bet on lower ahead. But the nice 10% correction cleaned out a lot of folks, and sets us up well for the future.

My gut says: tomorrow lower, but not by a lot. Maybe 10-15 lower on the S&P 500. Unless there is some outside news that influences, I'd say it will only be a slight down.

Somebody asked me when I planned on buying back in. A couple days ago I was thinking around 1350-60. Now, looking at where we're at, the next down cycle could very well be in the 1380-90 range. That would be the six to eight units down we've been tracking with the last couple swings. So I think if we get in this area soon, I may just jump back in. After all, we're about to enter a new month, and I'll have to practice my "two trade a month limit" theories, and see if they will work.

We'll see tomorrow, if we end up with a slightly lower close on the day. My thought is- 1445-1450 on the close tomorrow.

hessian

12-01-2007, 07:15 PM

James48843

12-03-2007, 08:12 AM

Hello James,
Good to be back. See I missed alot - maybe a good thing. Not sure next week will hold, may see retest -at least my hope since I'm still in G (no TV/news/internet up in the PA hills).

Anyway, a question for class:
Looking at several p&f charts now, many seem that the Red Bearish Resistance Lines do not disappear - they just get maybe broken (with Xs) passed or supassed, but remain. Wherein a new Bullisish Support (blue) line appears and passes the red. Is this normal (that the red lines remain)? Below is an example (Friday's S-Fund), of what I'm trying to ask about.

Please also let me know if you see anything else suggesting S may be improving (I note the 2 new Xs closing on the red line.).
2732

You asked "Is this normal?"

the answer is yes. the lines stay on the chart as we move forward.

Then you ask "...you see anyting else suggesting the S may be improving?"

We are still within the range- between the blue and red lines. Those lines are pointing to each other, so we will have more up and down movements until it breaks out one side or the other.

Under P&F chart theory, we should be sitting on the sidelines now. I threw my hands up on Friday and jumped back in, although the charts are showing a "wait and see" position. I'm sure I will lose as a result of my happy trigger finger last friday.

Anyway, that's what the P&F charts are saying. They are saying we are not yet in a steady direction, so keep to the sidelines and wait.

hessian

12-06-2007, 04:19 PM

James,
I know how busy you are, with website trying to save all our butts (our IFT rights). Hopefully you can espouse capability to DCA is critical (vs their "day-trading" view).

Anyway, thought I'd just post today's SPX p&F chart. I expect, no tactics change is indicated (yet), but its look is kinda interesting...
VR;)
2762

ayla

12-07-2007, 03:06 PM

Hi James,
- noticed today's reversal in the p&f charts for $SPX [and also interesting change in $EMW] (EFA & $MSEAFE unchanged/still positive). Thought others may find it intriguing, since its based on technicals - not Fed/Rate cut speculations!!
VR:laugh:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$SPX,P&listNum=
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P&listNum= (not quite reversed yet, close, but notice the PO!)

What a cliff hanger! Looks like the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 is right at 673 (or 674 depending on where you get the quote) which is the reversal point, right? How many points above that does it have to go in order for P&F to consider it BULL move? May be tomorrow we will see that solid blue support line trending up, do you think?

hessian

12-07-2007, 06:14 PM

What a cliff hanger! Looks like the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 is right at 673 (or 674 depending on where you get the quote) which is the reversal point, right? How many points above that does it have to go in order for P&F to consider it BULL move? May be tomorrow we will see that solid blue support line trending up, do you think?

Hi Ayla,
First, I need to note that I'm just a student, like you!
James has apparently been busy, so I'll try to help. OK, the $EWM is still not there yet with that red line still overhead. But note below, yesterday's $SPX chart (yesterday it filled all the blank spaces up to pass the red line w/ a new top X wearing that funny little red hat) - then suddenly today, ca-ching, the SPX got its confirmation, a new Blue Bullish line formed! :) (also that funny little red hat blew away)

Now, for the S chart ($EMW), first thing to know is: the numbers on the right move - even throughout a day, so watch those, but don't put much weight on those numbers. The cool thing today was that new Xs filled in blank spaces right up to the red line. Now this doesn't mean anything in itself - we're still under the red Bearish Resistance line - BUT, the PO (Price Objective) did suddenly move!: from being a red number, far below - to now a GREEN number, a good bit above!! I'm uncertain about what this means, except that now I want to watch more frequently - seems certain that something positive MIGHT be brewing. To me, it was these little oddities that gave me clues to think we may be close, and to watch more often! (the SPX chart below worked into its Bearish Reversal by noon the next day!)

For the S, $EMW chart, suggest, check the link provided a couple times a day - it could only need a few points up, that could give us those Xs breaking atop the red line, and that new, blue Bullish Support line to form!! Again, until we do, we are still technically under Bearish Resistance on this one. ;)
VR

James48843

12-08-2007, 12:23 PM

Hessian:

Thanks- yes I have been very , very , very busy with the other task.

But you are absolutely right. We broke the red line onto the high side Thursday, and that signals the reversal.
A techincal indicator of better times ahead. Now, we MAY have a down day or two, but overall the chart looks very, very good for a postive future.

I actually went full into stocks at the beginning of the week, so I got the gain this week. (Thank goodness), but this technical also tells me that the new price objective is that we have higher above, and we're going in a postive direction again.

Back to the other subject-
We'll keep focusing on the DCA implications as one of the prime points to stress. No one can aruge that Dollar Cost Averaging is bad for folks.

Pretty good success for a new organization so far. More than 300 signatures on the petition, but we need LOTS more before we deliver them. So spread the word around your place of work, to visit http://tspshareholder.org and sign the petition.

thanks

James48843

12-08-2007, 12:28 PM

Here is the new P&F Chart. The new bullish price objective is 1720.

We have a lot of upside ahead, according to this. I'm fully in right now, and will ride the good ride.

2781

Pretty clear indication of an upside breakthrough. If you are not already in stocks, I think you'll have some more opportunities to buy in shortly. It looks like the new lower side resistance points are going to be around 1430-1440, so if we get a dip at all, say into the 1470 or less range, that is a good time to begin loading up. If you are already in, just stay put for a while, because this is going to be a good ride. We COULD be back in the mid 1550s by Christmas.

The regular disclaimer:
As always- no one knows what the markets will do for sure. This is not advice, nor an offer to buy or sell anything. I don't tell people when to buy or sell. I have no knowledge of the future. If you want someone to complain about, Consult with a real financial planner - not me. This is not an offer to give advice, nor is it advice. No small animals were harmed in the posting of this message. If you click on the wrong button, you have to take responsibility for what you do. I would rather be on the beach at retirement than defending myself in court, so I won't tell you which fund or funds to invest in. You are on your own, and it's your own decision. There. I think I covered them all.

Oh, and yeh, I almost forgot this one: "Except in Nebraksa."

Have a good weekend.

RPM

12-09-2007, 12:30 PM

hessian

12-09-2007, 06:25 PM

James:
Have you been following this P&F chart for long? I am just starting to look at charting, and while the other types of chart allow you to compare past performance, this one doesn't. From your experience, whenever there is a turnaround with a bullish revised number, how well does the market follow it? I saw the turnaround on the DOW 12900, which is pretty much right on the dot, but that was my only experience.
Thanks for all the free training ;)

RPM, James isn't too likely to reply because he's very, very busy, with new website/petition -trying to save all our butts (our IFT rights). I'll try to answer your question - take it for what its worth. (I started as a student w/ this thread - and recomend reading it all from the start.
First p&f charts remove the element of time (focus is to identify trends.)
Below attached is the Dec 7, "S" chart (well, EFA anyway) - it gives a little different picture than the $SPX - as EFA is currently teetering on a posssible Bullish breakout - called a "Traditional Triple Top Breakout"Pattern/Traditional Triple Top Breakout (& consequently note the new "Prelim. Bullish PO")/
2783
Still however, until those Xs break atop the red line, and a new, blue Bullish Support line to forms under this, we are still technically under Bearish Resistance on this one.
Read reply to Ayla below, and maybe work to catch-up in meantime!
(And note, there is a '07 mark along bottom, and, the numbers in the chart indicated the LAST day of a particular month, but more as just an FYI - not meant to compare past performance!)
Return to this link a couple times a day to watch for changes, like Monday/Tues:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P&listNum=
And, along the chart bottom, review the various "Instructions," "about p&F Alerts", etc...
Again, expect James not much reply fully until AFTER his other undertaking concludes (he's working the petition)...
VR_____________________________________________
sign the petition, at http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/rev...fund-transfers
(http://www.tspshareholder.org/ (http://www.tspshareholder.org/) )

hessian

12-10-2007, 11:29 AM

Ayla,
To you specific question: seems the worm (S) did turn this morning at 11:17am.
VR:)
2788

RPM

12-10-2007, 12:12 PM

RPM, James isn't too likely to reply because he's very, very busy, with new website/petition -trying to save all our butts (our IFT rights). I'll try to answer your question

Hessian:

Thank you. I have been reading this post, and have followed the P&F charts for the last few weeks. However, this type of charts does not allow you to see the past, so I was just wondering how the market responded to the various bullish/bearish goals set by the charts at each turning point.

hessian

12-10-2007, 12:55 PM

RPM

12-10-2007, 11:58 PM

RPM, Good question, however neither myself, nor I expect James has a direct answer.
You might want to make it a project (as I'd like to know too) by either try compiling correlations, or maybe try googling up some correlation results. All I know its been a system in practice since before computers and apparently has been reliable as the system to determine trend direction. Also, recently, its becoming more-and-more rediscovered by many pros! VR

I just found out that you can set the date (up to date) for the P&F chart, so in a way you can go back in time and find out how the various price targets fare with the market. This is a tedious project, I might take it on when I have some time to spare!

James48843

12-11-2007, 02:11 PM

Nice.

Time to start looking at a serious entry point to dive in.

James48843

12-11-2007, 02:14 PM

These is a ton if support at levels around 1430, so it is dips below 1450-1460, you have a nice entry place to begin sliding in.

I'm in, and riding the bronco, so I'm just staying put. I think in a day or two, things will shake out, and we'll beign our move higher again.

James48843

12-11-2007, 02:18 PM

Here is the P&F chart.

2795

Notice that we've moved down four X's now, which means that we'll have a series of "O"s appear at the close today.

James48843

12-11-2007, 02:22 PM

And compare this to a conventional chart.
2796
You see that we've stopped right now for the moment, because we're hitting that 200 day moving average for a buffer. But we still have a gap down at 1425 to 1430 to fill in.

Whether or not the gap gets filled over the next couple of days is still up in the air, but the P&F chart says the floor is above the last time we went down, so it will be better soon.

weatherweenie

12-11-2007, 02:24 PM

sp500 down to 1484

James48843

12-13-2007, 05:12 PM

Ok- Sorry I have not posted recently, but I have been busy.

today we see clearly the O's which appeared on the Fed's annoucment drop, and the area below the O's before we get down to the support line.

2826

Tom, earlier this week, talked about the gap down at 1430 range that needs to be filled in. I agree that we are likely to see lower in the days ahead, perhaps not all the way down to 1430, but close, if not exactly, the 1430 and change mark.

I would consider anywhere below 1460 to be buying territory for the next wave up. I DO think we'll have the Santa Rally soon, so the question is will we be able to catch an entry point below 1460, and perhaps the floor at 1430, before the turn back up happens.

I am in now, so I am riding it out. What you do is totally up to you. What the chart is telling me is that we have the red line broken, a nice run up, then the O's down, now it's ready to drift down slightly for a buy in point, before rebounding strongly.

We'll see how it goes.

You do what is best for you. this is not advice. this is simply observation.

Except in Nebraska.

hessian

12-13-2007, 10:08 PM

James48843

12-14-2007, 09:47 AM

Hi James,
I'm looking more at the "S" Chart - still OK there, at least still today too ($EMW)-keeping fingers crossed.
Question:
In price/candle charts, today we got hammers formed in both C and S (& also in the I), so I'm thinking tomorrow, and afterwards, until at least newyears will start a fairly steady climb, mostly all up (w some dip-days). I recognize I'm no expert, certainly nowhere near your experience, so I'm asking - with hammers formed today, and FOMC/banks nonsense, and also now seasonality (especially after last 48 hour stuggle hopefully behind us now), I can't help but think we tomorrow see 15 to 30 points up! Thus, possibly creating new columns of Xs showing up! :o

Sorry- been busy, and didnt' get a chance to answer. I only am following the C closely, not the S or I charts. But I think the C does enough to tell me about elsewhere.

The C officially turned to a "high pole warning" on the 12th. Because we are in a blue line cycle now, that should have triggered me to move to safety on the 13th. I was very busy yesterday and didn't get a chance to make the move, so I am trapped in it today. I will most likely move to the sidelines today as a result of the high pole warning. The problem is I already missed the exit point by two days.

Is filling that gap, in that single chart, that much a certainty, because that will drag down the others with it?

Now you are talking relational influences between different segments. IN short answer, no, they are usually independant of each other. P&F charts have tradionally been used to track individual stocks, not indexes, so the fall in one stock can be inpendant of any other. However, since all stock indexes are a wide mixture of stocks, one can assume that you MAY see similar results across bands- because in index tracking you are seeing a LOT of stocks moving overall. Note: I fund will be different, because I also includes the varible of the value of the dollar indepenent of stock prices. Right now the dollar has ceased it's freefall of the last few months, so I would expect that, going forward, we may see smaller returns in the I than in the domestics, which is a change in the patterns from the last year, when we saw I doing better, a lot because of the compounding affect of the falling dollar on the I's rate of increase. This last cycle I reduced the amont of "I" that I am carrying, and increasing the amount of C.

Is there a necessity to fill that gap in that one chart, or other causes to predict a downward push? - I'm not hearing needs for filling that gap from other sources, but could see something of this scenario more in maybe Jan/Feb? :worried:
VR (as always).
PS I've been all in-riding wave, too>

I think the C's gap will be filled. Not sure if it will be now, but I do believe it will be filled. And since it is a major segment, you will probably see S tag along for the ride. I don't know about I, for the reasons stated above.

We'll see.

James48843

12-14-2007, 03:05 PM

Here is where we are right now:

2831

As you can see, right now we're at the 1467 level. As mentioned previously, I expect it on this cycle to drop right in around 1440-1430, and then we're at the bottom for the next strong cycle up. Yesterday I said I would think about buying in around 1460 or lower, as this market has been pretty strong, and I didn't know if we would make it all the way down to 1430 before the turnaround. Today is pretty consistent with that thought process. Anything at 1460 is a bargain comapred to the 1510 last week. And if it does go below 1440, which I think it will because we have a gap to fill, then that is plenty to load up on . If you wait until 1430 you could get burned by waiting too long.

This week's sentiment survey also confirms to me the thought. Sentiment Survey has been running a few days to a few weeks ahead of what the markets have actually done. Sentiment goes to a buy this week- so I think the next few days are a great time to do - IF it falls below 1460, and the best points in are around 1440.

Remember- pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. If someone misses the entry point, then you are out of luck.

I'm in right now, riding the broncho, because I missed the exit point two days ago. But it won't be long before the reverse again.

As always- the dispclaimer. You do what YOU want. I am no expert. Don't listen to me. Don't do what I say, and then think it will work. I don't have a clue what I am doing, and you shouldn't think that I do. Oh, yeh, this disclaimer too- I almost forogt.

Ready:

"Except in Nebraska".

(I love that one.)

hessian

12-14-2007, 11:31 PM

Hey James,
I thought it was: "Except in Nebraksa"
(Legalistically, even more clever.) ;)

Anyway, wanted to say thanks, I am beginning to pick up the concepts. Also beginning to think we may need faster ways to catch the tops & bottoms. Don't get me wrong, p&f is good, useful, but for example, in the C I recall it was about 1507, maybe Dec 6 when the Bullish Reversal Pattern actually tipped. Likewise it was ~1490 Dec 12th the "High Pole Warning" appeared - not really indiating a Reversal (to me).
The Bullish PO is even still, today calling for 1750.

I'm still all in 20,50,30. I know alot of others bailed (and they lost $$$, but I decided I'd play it long, as its my belief, since the FOMC that the bankers & financial institutions been playing the wounded bird act (but almost always turn up next day mysteriously claiming daily profits!). I think this nonsense is about ended (for now) - and Mon/Tues next week we'll see a return to a couple normal Christmas weeks, before "they" begin begin the act again (sometime in Jan), so I think a temp bottom is in. Even if we go the 1430 now, that's what, only a few points over 30 from where we are now (we could do that in a single intraday move!) - then we springboard and see 1530+.

I do think we'll see more pain - later, maybe worse even, but I think Fed wants to spread it out over time, rather than have it go all at once. Just my thinking, and strategy, given where I am today.
VR
Really appreciate all the lessons!
Matt :)

James48843

12-17-2007, 03:19 PM

Well, some feedback for today.

We're exactly on track as predicted last week. The chart is shaping up nicely. Last week I said that the S&P would have to fill in the gap around 1430 before it would reverse direction. Well, we're getting darn close to that level now. I said that a buy back in under 1460 was a good thing, and that if we were to get below the 1460 mark, we would most likely see 1430 and then the turnaround.

There is nothing today that changes that idea. We are exactly where we should be, according to history and the P&F charts.

Here is today's action, showing two more "O"s appearing, as we close in on that 1430 level. Today wer're at 1445.

2837

Because we're not able to go in at exact levels, I would say now is a good time to begin buying back in. We can't call the bottom exactly, because we have only once a day opportunities to buy, and that is at the close. I am fully in, having ridden it down this month. That's my fault for not being fully engaged here, but rather being engaged elsewhere, if you know what I mean. We've hit 2,000 signatures on the petition, and that is good, but it's only a start. More are needed, and more help in getting the word out.

Anyway, I see the P&F chart showing closing in on 1430. That's a good entry point for the next wave up. I see a postive wave coming, so we'll leave it at that.

Remember, use your own feelings, your own intellegence, and your own level of risk in deciding what to do with your own money. Don't listen to me, as I am just another federal employee, with my own ideas. You do what you want to do. This is NOT financial advice of any kind. If you decide to buy in here, around 1430, it's because YOU made that decision on your own.

Oh yea, one final disclaimer: My favorite one:

"Except in Nebraska."

Have a good day.

hessian

12-17-2007, 05:24 PM

Hi James,
The "S" p&f chart broke today (not pretty for any folks faint of heart), but I thought some may want to see it.
Personally, I was 20C,50S,30I - decided to bail to 50G,50I. I decided a good option was to DCA 20% more into "I" at a low $78.24
- and this also gives me 50G to get more in, when the time is right! (best I could figure out to do, at the time).
I think I can work a good ways back from this position.
VR
2838

James48843

12-18-2007, 10:59 PM

ok- NOW that we've followed the C P&F chart for a little bit, to get a handle on how this thing is supposed to work, I think what I am going to do is create a new account in the autotracker to reflect the buy and sell signals of the C fund via the P&F chart.

Because of the length of the cycles, the P&F charts MAY be one way to work within a two-trade type limit. I'll start making account autotracker postings with that in mind, and we'll see how it performs over time. Note: MY OWN ACCOUNT is NOT FOLLOWING THIS YET. I want to see how is does before I put my money to work following this. So, anyway, watch the autotracker, and let's see what kind of return we can get using P&F chart signals.

I am ONLY going to be tracking the C fund, no other funds. Simple, so we'll see how it works.

Here is today's action. Again we had a lower time around mid-day, where we scraped around the 1435 level:

2841

I actually think we MAY have filled that 1430 gap I was talking about today, and if so, then we will not retest it. If we do retest it, that's ok too, as we came within five points or so of that gap today. We are close enough to begin buying back in, as I said yesterday. Since we can't buy in excet for once per day, we may lag a little. I will be creating an autotracker account for the P&F chart C, and will being with an allocation tomorrow of moving to "C".

Let's see how it does for a while.

James48843

12-20-2007, 10:13 AM

OK- just an update.

Technically, we "bought in" yesterday at the closing "C" fund price of $16.37 a share. While that is not the ideal location, it's pretty darn close.

I am still expecting that last little "O" to fill in on the above chart. The 1425-1430 gap that we've been talking about for the last couple weeks. It came VERY close two days ago, when it dropped to 1435 and change. But that was not quite enough to trigger the appearance of the final "O" to fill in the chart gap on the P&F chart above the blue line.

That should happen in the next couple of days. And if it does, then we are poised for a nice move upward again, in my humble opinion.

One thing that is a caution signal is the "S" fund chart breaking below the blue support line, as Hessian mentioned. That COULD carry over into the "C". But I kind of doubt that right now. I think unless we see some outside market force affect things (world event, bad sales report, etc), then I think we have enough support here to bounce back off the 1425 level and head north from there.

We'll see.

Take care, and remember, this is not advice. You do what you want to do. Don't ask me, I'm not an investment professional. I'm only a chart watcher, so be careful, and only do what YOU are comfortable doing.

The number one guy this week on the Autotracker is sitting in "F" right now. That should tell you something.

Have a great day, and remember- be careful out there.

Except in Nebraska.

ayla

12-20-2007, 12:44 PM

Hey James (or anyone else who wants to jump in) --
speaking of the F fund, can you shed some light on the P&F chart for AGG? This chart doesn't look very user friendly to me but then I still have a long way to go with the P&F thing.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=AGG,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

editing this to add a tinyurl - doesn't look like the real one works here very well:

http://tinyurl.com/2qhqjj

James48843

12-21-2007, 10:53 AM

Here is the P&F chart for the C fund for today.

It's looking really nice. We've broken upward, gotten rid of those pesky "O"s, and are once again solidly into X territory.

It's the Santa rally, folks. And Santa is here.

2855

There is a very good support now on the down side that has developed. We didn't tweak out that last 1425-1430 range, and that's just fine. What we are seeing now is strength to the upside. Today's annoucement that November consumer sales was up is helping the markets, and since we're so close to Christmas, I see it floating upwards to about 1500 or so.

The mock "C" P&F system is in the market, and will continue for at least the next couple days that way as we float higher over the holidays. Barring some unforseen outside event, we should coast higher until after the New Year.

That's good. It gets us into another month. I'm going to try and keep the movement from P&F to the two-per-month theory just to see how it works out.

Enjoy, and Merry Christmas, everyone. And enjoy the football bowl games.

(Except in Nebraska. In Nebraska, you all have a Merry Christmas, but your Cornhuskers got beat by Colorado, so your're not going to a bowl game this year. Better luck next year.)

hessian

12-21-2007, 04:08 PM

Ayla,
I think this is one you want (not absolutely positive though). See...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$AKG&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979
At the bottom of the candlestick chart, click the "Box" labeled "p&f chart" - it does still look odd, I think because each row/box is only 2.0, but definitely showing Bearish -which right now, seems to make sense.
VR

James48843

12-24-2007, 11:54 AM

I've started a "account thread" for the P&F chart C, and begun tracking in the autotracker.

today I posted that we're near a high in the X's, and I would normally think it wouild be time to move aside. However, due to the post -christmas rally historical data, I'm going to leave it invested one more day and wait and see what Wednesday brings.

See the account talk thread for the P&F chart for today's reading and copy of the chart.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night.

James48843

02-01-2008, 01:02 PM

Alright- time to start back to Chart school. We've had enough recess for the time being.

today the P&F chart continues to show a green upside - and an anticipated price objective of around 1490.

3205

James48843

02-27-2008, 07:45 AM

An update:

Here is the P&F chart for today. Notice that we're at a significant point. the green X"s' are now bumping up against the red line.

What this means: If the market breaks upward, then we have broken the cycle, and we have more upside ahead.

But if it does not, then it will fall again, and we have downside ahead.

I am concerned because the downside, if it continues, will wipe out all of this weeks gains.

And I give a higher probability today of the downside turn that the chance of breaking though to the upside.

So, I will probably be making a move today to the sidelines, unless for some unknown reason the chart is broken to the upside through the red line today. If that happens, then I am moving to an all "in" position.

My guess is 65% chance of a down day today, and 25% chance of a breakthrough to the upside. 10% chance of remaining relatively flat. That's all guess, nothing more.

3387

That's my P&F chart call for today.

Viva_La_Migra

02-27-2008, 12:26 PM

James,

Which fund would you be going all into, if there is a break to the upside?

James48843

02-28-2008, 05:14 AM

James,

Which fund would you be going all into, if there is a break to the upside?

Definately "C".

First, the costs to the TSP for moves into and out of C are a fraction of the costs anywhere else.

Second, the chart I am following is only the C, not the S or I. One observer pointed out to me previously that I had made some comment about the C chart as it was approaching a key point a few months ago, when the S chart was already showing the break downside the day before the C chart showed it, so I am now watching a little close on the other chart. However, I am sticking with the C and G right now as my "vehciles" in order to 1. keep a low profile, and 2. Try and hit clean moves and signals. I dont' want to be distracted by seeing the C chart do one thing, and then putting money in S or I . Foregin currency exchange rates are affecting the I right now, and it is not clear to me yet that the dollar's value is going to be regular in it's moves. PLus, they have been screwing with the Fair Value in the I since October.

James48843

02-29-2008, 04:11 AM

Well, it's the end of the month. I've only made one move this month- Wednesday I bailed out into the G fund for safety, and now I am sitting and looking at whether to buy back in at this lower level. I hit that exit just right, and am feeling pretty good about it.

With the possibility of a two-per-month limit it makes things ten times harder. But it's still doable. The price of oil hit $103 a barrel yesterday, and that will reverberate through the markets for a while.

The P&F indicator says we are still expecting higher ahead- but it's also saying we're expecting lower today. I am fully expecting to go below 1350 in this next cycle, before turning northward once again. It COULD hit below 1340, but 1350 is a lot better bet in the next few days than 1340 is. So if we go below 1350, I plan on buying back in.

That would put me in a position of buying in at two percent below where I sold at. And that is just fine with me. If I can get two percent better than the S&P 500 in one month, that's darn good. If I can get 2% better than the S&P 500 each month for 12 months, then I am in position to outpace it by a good measure. With a limit of just two moves per month, it's going to be hell to find just the right setup to try and make those gains. But that just means it's a challenge to follow the market closely, and find the best entry and exit points.

Here is where we are today. I am sitting in G, having bailed on Wednesday. I am expecting another down day today. Perhaps a significant down day. I don't know. The good news is that the foreign markets are following through on the losses overnight. Japan is now down 2%. And Europe is down a percent as well. Sets us up nice for a down opening today.

3402

If it DOES go down strongly today, and hits below 1350, then I am probably going to jump back into "C" 100%, and be happy with being 2% ahead of where I was on Wednesday. My two moves for the month keep me off the radar screen for the Thrift Board, and I would then be sitting 100% in stocks, waiting for next month's new challenges.

Yes, this is a challenge. We'll see where it goes.

Happy investing everyone- and remember, I am NOT an investment counselor, what I do is what I do, not what YOU should do.

And my final word of the day:

Except, of course, in Nebraska.

Cross my fingers, and hope we get a nice tank today.

BlueMax

02-29-2008, 09:24 AM

James,

It looks like you got your 'below 1350 pop'. Are you still going in?

James48843

02-29-2008, 09:58 AM

OK- I just updated my account chat thread.

Yes Max, I think so.

More than 80% chance I am moving BACK INTO "C" today as a result of the nice pullback. I am going to wait 45 more minutes to see where things are, but unless the bottom drops out between now and then, I am planning to go in. Watch for my IFT on the autotracker in about 40 minutes.

Here is this morning's chart from ten minutes ago and 1342. We're now at 1341.

3404

I consider 1341 to be a great place to take a LEAP.

After all, it's "LEAP DAY" today.

LEAP DAY FACTS:

Since the start of the Dow in 1896, there have only been 19 Leap Years with February 29 falling on a weekday including today. The last occurrence was eight years ago in 2000. Leap Day has been a down day more than up; only the Nasdaq has had more up Leap Days than down.

February 29 and the Markets

Dow

Current: DJIA 12363.19 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Images/componentbacks/watchlist_down.gif -218.99 (-1.74%)

18 past occurrences
61% of the time down, 39% up
Avg gain of .13%
Best Feb 29 was in 1988 - the Dow soared 2.4%
Since the last Leap Year in 2000, the Dow is up almost 16%S&P

Current: SPX 1343.44 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Images/componentbacks/watchlist_down.gif -24.24 (-1.77%)

14 past occurrences
57% of the time down, 43% up
Avg gain of .2%
Best Feb 29 was in 1988 - the S&P soared 2.0%
Since the last Leap Year in 2000, the S&P is down almost 4%

James48843

03-04-2008, 11:37 AM

Quick note-

IN my account thread, I said yesterday that I was getting out because I was afriad of a breakdown on the down side.

It has occured- new P&F price target to the downside is 1250. I'ts offical- there is a double bottom breakdown occuring today.

Here is the chart:

3431

Notice the downside target level. 1250.

The bear continues.

James48843

03-07-2008, 05:48 AM

Now we continue with the downside.

It looks to me like this wave down will take us around 1280 to 1270 level.

Here is the chart- and I've put in purple the trend line underneath:

3459

I'm sitting safely in "F", hoping to catch a little up F action today. But I think we've got at least another day, if not two, on the downside, before the momentum changes. Japan was down over 3% overnight, all of Europe down over 1% each. There really isn't anything postive in the outlook, and we continue with this hungry bear market.

Da Bears rule.

Silverbird

03-07-2008, 08:10 AM

Sorry, I have a couple questions.

I have a general idea on how to use P&F charts for stocks, but I can't make heads or tails out of the AGG P&F charts for bonds as they never seem to move. Any advice on how to do a little forecasting on F?

Also, F would appear to be the play when stocks are doing a dive, but that hasn't always followed recently - is that because of the backlash on municipal bonds and no one's buying anything, or :confused:

James48843

03-07-2008, 10:18 AM

I have a general idea on how to use P&F charts for stocks, but I can't make heads or tails out of the AGG P&F charts for bonds as they never seem to move. Any advice on how to do a little forecasting on F?

The F chart doesn't move enough to do a day-to-day type of action like you can in stocks. Yes, P&F charting works in the F, but it is a much longer time period, so it is harder to see the moves. Here is the F's chart:

3461

You can see the "double top breakout" back on September 4th, a signal to move into F, and if you did, you would be a little better off than if you had stayed out. But a move from 99 to 101 over six months isn't really a lot, now is it? F does have benefits over longer terms- higher average returns than "G", but again, there are other factors weighing in on the F right now that makes it so you have to be careful.

The last time I moved to "safety", I went "G" rather than "F", and watched the F bounce up nicely while I was not in it. This time I went to "F" rather than "G" , and wouldn't you figure, the F is getting smacked.

Also, F would appear to be the play when stocks are doing a dive, but that hasn't always followed recently - is that because of the backlash on municipal bonds and no one's buying anything, or :confused:

"F" is screwed up right now because of the issues with the bond markets in general. You've probably been reading about the municipal bonds having problems attracting buyers- the secondary markets won't re-insure, and good government bond issuers are not able to get buyers as a result, unless they really jack up the yields of the bonds, and that's playing havoc with the bond market.

Until the whole sub-prime fiasco is rung out, I'm not sure where bonds are going to go. We might have some good opportunities, and then again, maybe not.

Sorry I can't help more- but my F fund crystal ball is really fogged over at the moment.

Silverbird

03-07-2008, 10:55 AM

Thanks, James. I did the ride the F at the wrong time too. Well, G may be the only sure thing right now...as in surely not going to keep up with inflation :cool: so I'll keep some in F too. I can see why investors are trying to ride gold and oil, but I think those are the next ones to go as the valuations seem like foam and not beer.

James48843

03-07-2008, 01:46 PM

Solid downside, as expected.

But the volume has not kicked in to bounce back. Look for buyers to step in over the next hour, and possibly try to capture something here.

It's looking more and more like a 1280 kind of day- if the buyers start coming in in the final hour, we'll finish better- perhaps 1290 to 1300. But if the buyers don't appear, the number is toast.

Here is the chart so far today:

3464

Notice that we' ve now built five "O"s into the downside on this wave down. By exceeding the normal four "O"s and by the continuning weakness, I'm thinking now we'll hit the 1270 mark before we feel any resistance at all. We are down five as of now. We'll probably make a little of that back before the close. But overall the trend is still lower.

And getting ten "O"s on the downside is a real possibilty here. That would make the P&F Chart target of 1230 a real possibility before we hit a resistance point if the 1270 doesn't hold.

And shows once again that the P&F chart targets seem to work pretty well.

James48843

03-10-2008, 10:58 AM

We're starting to see a little more volume start to move in, but it's premature to say that the people on the sidelines are ready to move in.

We're still on the downward move: Now 1280 level has been crossed, and then back over again. Still not enough to say that we're ready for an oversold condition, but I think we're a lot closer today than we were on Friday.

Here is the chart for today noonish:

3492

I'm sitting on the sidelines, and will continue to be there for at least another day while we watch and see what happens later today. Will buyers come in, and drive it back up? Or will weakness hold, and the effort to form a base fizzle out?

That is the question.

Silverbird

03-10-2008, 12:01 PM

Crazy buying seems to occur every time we start to touch 1275, at least that's how things appear to me. How long can it last? :(

James48843

03-10-2008, 03:39 PM

looks like everything at 1275 blew out. Now were at 1273, and most of that resistance appears to be gone.

Next- down through the 1270 mark.

If we blow threw that tomorrow- the next support level is back down around 1240 to 1230.

P&F chart price objective is showing 1230.

3500

And we could reach that in a couple days.

James48843

03-11-2008, 10:46 AM

I'm afraid I am falling for a sucker's rally. the only reason the market is up today is fed's action to make things liquid, nothing else.

The P&F chart does NOT show a break to the upside- we're still below the 1300 level necessary to break out and change the direction of the wave.

Here is the chart-

3505

I am considering cancelling my pending IFT- I think I jumped the gun. ANd I've only got minutes to make a final decision.

Sorry - I thought it was going to be different.

James48843

03-11-2008, 10:53 AM

I cancelled my IFT.

Staying 100% "F", following the P&F chart.

The chart rules over emotion today.

Silverbird

03-11-2008, 11:20 AM

Look at the SP 500 12:00 noon line of spikes in trades. Here we go again with big investors trying to hold the line. But it's not sustaining, the line is spikey but the overall trend still appears to be down. However that's just my opinion, YMMV (your mileage may vary).

felixthecat

03-11-2008, 02:22 PM

Maybe its just me...but the market took the cue and is placing a significant bet on the upside starting with today. I call it the Helicopter Ben's end-run around move catching oil and dollar traders off balance...thereby lifting the market like a rocket as big investors move to equities. Appears like a powerful move up today followed by a lesser but significant lift tomorrow. See no weakness in the trading. appears more like a solid bottom being put in here.

James48843

03-12-2008, 07:14 PM

Sorry, I missed commenting last night. Busy, you know?

Anyway, here we are again today. All the strength of yesterday got zapped out. I am glad that I stayed in "F" rather than trying to catch that bounce. That bounce was not caused by natural action of a wave (it would have, in another day or two, by the way, had the Fed not decided to become creative).

Instead, now that the markets have had a day to digest what the impact of that fed move is going to be (which, by the way, is NOT good for the taxpayer. It only delays the inevitable by a short bit. The market sucks 200 billion in cash pretty quick when you've got many times that amount about to go into foreclosure as people walk away.

By the way- I'll say it here, now, just to get it off my chest- the subprime is going to kill us. Bad. I'm 48 years old, and this is going to make the S&L crisis of my youth look mild in comparison. Full bore recession is directly ahead, and big time, and I don't see yet what will pull us out of it. In the Second World War, we had the Second World War to get us out. We're already at war, the war spending it going to Haliburton, Brown and Root in services contracts, not in building our manufacturing capacity- i.e. that is still being sent to China in droves- so I don't really see us coming out of this. for a LONG time.

Now, wasn't that a positive statement?

Ok- here is the chart for today:

3530

We lost steam this afternoon. That pretty much assures us that we're going to retest that 1270 mark, and very soon. The question is will it be a third time retest, and a bottom? Or will we break through that one, and continue downward-

Very risky business here. Once we get to the 1270 level, we're going to have to decide what we want to do.

1270 again means "third time the charm". Either we will get a nice, natural rebound wave back up to the 1310-1320 range, or, if it doesn't hold, then it's "Look out below".

A fed rate cut next week is already pretty much factored in. If it doesn't happen ( and I bet the fed is DARN worried about inflation right now, as they should be as the oil shock works it way through the system) then, well, if we break the 1270 on the downside, we next get a pause at the 1230-1240 level. Beyond that- too hazy.

I'm sitting nicely in "F", thank you very much, where bonds get a boost from 200 billion of future broken promises backing from the FED.

Too risky for me.

Note: one move this month so far for me- into "F". It was a good move. I'm sticking there for a while.

mamikin

03-13-2008, 01:27 PM

I don't really see us coming out of this. for a LONG time.

Now, wasn't that a positive statement?

Positive or not, thank you for posting your statements and observations. I would rather know the truth and deal with it, not stick my head in the sand.

James48843

03-14-2008, 04:27 AM

Well, the good news is that things seem to have settled down a little. That Fed annoucement that they were going to soak up $200 billion in sub-prime related questionable value bonds was not on the normal schedule, so it may have thrown off my crystal ball a little. Anyway, the markets have thought about that, drifted up in the normal wave a bit (to around the 1320 level), drifted back down to retest the prior lows, and then settled up yesterday at the end.

3537

What this means:
First, I highlighted the bearish resistance line above our current levels. Until this line is broken, we techincally are still in the bear market phase here. That line will continue to be an indicator of the longer term trend, which still points downward. Under true P&F theory, we would not re-enter stocks until that line gets broken, and we are ready to move up.

But another factor is at play now as well. We've retested the 1270 area twice now, and yesterday almost came down for a third. when we droped to 1282 yesterday. BUt upon reaching 1282, buyers kicked in. that was a small, good sign.

I said previously that if the 1270 line is actually hit for the third time, that would be the risky time, as a breakdown below that means we could head much lower, with the next stop downward in the 1230 area.

On the other hand, yesterday we approached that area, and then climbed back out of the hole before we reached down that far. That's a GOOD sign. It COULD mean that we have tested, and since it held, we are ready to form a base here, and may soon be ready to head north and break the bearish resistance line above.

We'll just have to see what today, and early next week bring. Either it will be more bad news, and the downward push towards 1230, or....if we get some good news for a change, we could be almost ready to break that bad ol'e bearish resistance line on top, and reverse the general trend.

We'll just have to wait and see.

I'm sitting calmly in "F", and will wait it out.

James48843

03-14-2008, 09:17 AM

Wow. What a morning.

Here is the chart from about 9:50 this morning, showing the reversal and bounce up this morning. I annotated it a bit, showing where the floor was showing, and the triangle which was about to form:

3540

My comment was going to be about how we held that 1290 level, and, with the approach of time, how that triagle that was forming was about to tell us we were going to break out, one way or the other, and very soon. I was thinking maybe Monday with a downside break, or perhaps tuesday, and that might make a good buying opportunity.

No sooner that had I finished annotating, and I looked back at the market.

Wow. The reversal is the first time I've seen both new "X"s and a whole new row of new "O"s form in the matter of fifteen minutes:

3541

Pretty incredible, actually.

Got to think about this one for a bit. Either it's about to break downward bigtime again, or it presents a unique buying opportunity. Not sure which just yet.

James48843

03-14-2008, 01:37 PM

And here comes that retest of the 1270 level again....

3544

Will it hold at the 1270 level, in which case we may very well get the reversal, or....will we get a breakdown now, and it tumble even lower?

P&F chart has been telling us to expect 1230. It told us that two weeks ago. We are well on our way there. But it is darn hard to peg a bottom to the exact day.

Only time will tell.

We're down about 3.5 % for the month, and it's only the 14th of the month. I'll take the 3.5% advantage over the "C", and lock in the benefit.

If I can ony do this every month (3.5% X 12 months, and this is a BAD year...)= :D

James48843

03-17-2008, 09:50 AM

I would make this little note here:

This morning we got hit bad right out of the gate, as the market uncertaintly following the Bear Stearns annoucement rippled through the market.

It could have been MUCH worse than it was. And it appears now that there is substaintail resistance below us. That is a good sign, in fact one that may be signaling we've about reached the bottom, at least for now. It all depends on what happens over the next couple days. Either we head back up for the short term wave, or we break lower. The next real resistance level below is in the 1230 range- as noted.

However, the 1270 level is acting very nicely as a buffer to keep us from going lower, at least this morning it is.

Here is this morning's chart- with a single "O" added on the downside this morning when we broke below 1270, but that didn't last long, and we are making back most of the morning losses as people jump in at the opportunity.

I've marked the floor support line we're holding - and marked the P&F chart's negative price objective, which appeared back on March 4th, as a signal for a downturn to reach 1250. See this post:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=152651&postcount=89

Sometime a day or two later, the chart was revised to show 1230, not 1250 on the downside. I think that was because there is little substainal data in the 1270 to 1230 range. When it went up before, it went straight up through there, and didn't build any floors inbetween.

I would tend to believe now, after digesting what happened this morning, that the chances of us hitting that 1230 level are now much lower than they were yesteday- in fact I think we may see the turnaround soon- We may have hit the floor this morning in the 1265 range. Money came in from the sidelines again, stronly, when we were below 1270. That is good. I THINK we may be ready to reverse the wave, and head higher.

that's only my opinion. I'm in to win at this point. Cross your fingers.

3559

Your mileage may vary.

James48843

03-18-2008, 09:40 AM

Nice cycle up.

However, it's still within the continuing pattern and below the bearish resistance line. While it's a nice move today in a postive direction, the overall direction remains unbroken.

Here is the chart this morning:

3563

The overall chart shows that we continue in the major bear market down cycle. The trend of this particular wave up shows we should peak out between 1310 and 1320. Once it is in that territory, the market has to make a decision- either jump north, and break that overhead bearish resistance line (which I really don't see any news anywhere to support that), or....and this is probably more likely, another down cycle in the very near future. This next scheduled down wave would take it down into the 1230 range. Once again, that range is what the predicted lower price objective is according to the projections made by the P&F chart back on March 4th.

I true follower of the P&F chart would still be sitting on the sidelines, after having sold on March 4th's reversal.

For me, I'm in, hoping that this one will be the wave that breaks to the upside. If not, then , well, it's too late for me to bail out anyway. Besides, now that I'm in, I am trying my best to limit my moves to stay within the 2 move limit the thrift board thinks is best for me. I know better, but that is another story for another day. Today, it's all about waiting for the entire world here to panic, so we can finally say we have capitulation in the market, and the turnaround which that panic will signal. Cool heads now will let us take most advantage. When others are falling out the window ledge, that's the time to scoop up bargains.

That's all for this morning. Cross your fingers, and let's see how the market likes (or does not like) whatever the fed does this afternoon.

James48843

03-18-2008, 11:37 AM

Note:

If I were a day trader- (which I am not), I would sell right here. We're now back above 1311, which puts it in the range of the top of a normal wave cycle. No metter what the fed does, it will be hard to close above here, I think. I think it would be worth bailing right here and wating for the next cycle.

James48843

03-18-2008, 02:32 PM

OK- here we are at 1322.

In the course of the current bear market cycle, this is a significant point. Specifically, we are bumping up against the "bearish resistance line", which is just above us at 1330.

Should we cross that line, then we have a shot at having a fundemental reversal of the trend, and it would be a signal under the P&F format to make a buy.

However, should it fail to penetrate that point, it then will revserve direction again, and we resume our downward course.

Here is the chart for this afternoon- and I've marked in purple the point where we are now- right up againt (within 8 points of) the bearish resistance line:

3565

Which way will it go? Will it break the six month trend and reverse now? Or will it tank????
The P&F chart still says "price objective 1230". Without a breakthrough, that is where we will be soon, I think.

That is the question.

James48843

03-19-2008, 09:43 AM

Actually a significant change this morning on the P&F chart- a buy signal--and here is why:

For the last four months, we've been on a downturn. We got a "bearish resistance line" overhead since January, and as recently as March 4th, we got another downward signal, which told us the downside price objective had been lowered to the 1250 level (and then was revised to 1230 a few days later).

I said then, when the downside price objective appeared at about 1330 headed downward, that I wasn't sure it would make it all the way down to 1250 (later 1230), but that I was selling out, then, and would buy back in around the 1270ish level on the way down. I did exactly that, making a move to F on March 3rd, and then moving back into the C fund on last Friday, as we bounced around that 1270 level.

Yesterday afternoon, I mentioned that we were bumping exactly up against that 1320 level on the bearish resistance line, and that whatever happened next would be significant.

A break upward would signal a change, if it failed to hold, then we would most likely resume the downward trend.

This morning, we broke through that line above, and registered an official breakthrough of the bearish resistance line.

Here is the chart:

3569

Notice first of all the chart signals an official reversal in the data at the top. We've switched officially from a negative price objective of 1230, to a preliminary estimate of a postive price objective of 1510. (See #1).

On Point #2, you see the "X" has crossed the bearish resistance line this morning, and penetrated above the red line.

That, combined with the "higher low" rather than a "lower low" in the last cycle confirms a change in direction on the P&F chart, and resets the trend, at least according to traditional P&F chart rules.

Point #3 shows the new "Bullish Support line" forming. Note that we only have one set of down "O"s to base it off of, so the likelyhood of a true change in direction is still a little iffy. However, it IS the first significant change we've had in a while, and is a good sign that the market has had enough. That triple whammy from the Fed seems to have had a nice effect.

Now- what I expect from here-

The normal cycle, if we are to believe that a bullish support line has formed, would tell us that we will have a day or two of rest here- and will gently float back down a little. If the bullish support line is for real, it will float downward to between 1280 and 1290 or so, hit that line, and start moving up again.

And then, if that holds, the next cycle will take us northward again, this time higher than the high we hit this morning.

So those who follow this type of chart-if you are in right now- things are looking good.

Nice place to be.

Note- this COULD just be a fakeout. You saw earlier this year (on the chart above) where the red bearish resistance line was penetrated by three "X"s, only to be torn down again a few days later, and the downturn resume. That's why it will be important to keep an eye on it over the next few days.

If you are not in right now, look for a buying opportunity in the next day or two, or several days, when we are below 1290. That will be your leg in, PROVIDED that we are in a true change of direction. If that is the case, the it will be up from there. If the 1290 on the downside holds- then we're up, up and away, when the smart money figures out that the market is changing, they will come in from the sidelines and drive it up quick. We'll just have to wait and see.

Just a theory- don't do it cause I say so- because I am just a guy, not a guru, and this is NOT investment advice.

My 2 cents, anyway.

James48843

03-20-2008, 09:45 AM

Very good morning this morning-

We did have a slight retracement this morning, as expected, although it didn't drop down below the 1290 level that I was thinking we would hit. We may still get there in the next day or two, because I have a feeling we're going to fill in the little blank square indicated on the chart. However, we have some good strength indicated as well, and we still have the new bullish price objective up above 1500.

Here is the chart this morning- now as we sit about 0.84% in the green this morning:

3575

That's all this morning. Enjoy. I'm in- see you up as we near 1490-1520 range.

BlueMax

03-20-2008, 09:59 AM

James,
How does the resistance at 1400 play in P&F charts? Or does it?

James48843

03-20-2008, 10:13 AM

James,
How does the resistance at 1400 play in P&F charts? Or does it?

In pure P&F theory, the 1400 level really doesn't have any affect at all. Yes, we may get some slowdown in that area, but what the chart is telling us is that we won't get a full-blown reversal action again until we reach up in the 1500 range- where the 1510 takes us to a point equal to, but slightly behind, the last time we had a true change in direction, or reversal.

I've marked on here the dashed green line to show- horizontally, where we pick up the next price objective- just a hair short of the last time we got a break in the bearish resistance line (red line). We are now showing a price objective of 1510, just short of the 1520 the last time we were there.

And I've filled in some brown lines about what the chart is saying is likely in the days ahead. Perhaps some zigzag movement, but overall the trend should be postive.

Again, that is all based on hypothetical data- any good "bad news" event can throw things off. The markets are driven by outside forces, so any outside event could make all this a futile exercise.

Here is the chart with comments:

3576

Hope that helps. Good luck, and let's cross our fingers.

I still think we'll get one more retracement back down in the 1290 area, which if we did, would be a great buying opportunity, but if not, then it looks, at least today, like we have a very nice bull run about to occur.

James48843

03-24-2008, 09:51 AM

Solid gains this morning- right on track. Remember, last week I noted the offical signal to a "buy" signal on the P&F chart-

Yes, we're going to get some action both ways in the immediate future- I doubt that today's close will hold this 1.75% gain this morning- but the trend is clear. We're on our way to a postive rebound here, thanks to pent-up demand for stocks, and the flow of money moving in from the sidelines. Unless some external factor- really bad news from somewhere, kicks in, then I am pretty much convinced the next turnaround will be up around the 1500-1510 level, as noted on the "price objective" on the P&F chart.

Here is today's action- I would also note that we crossed the 50 day moving average for the first time at the 1344 level today. More positive sign that we're bouncing back .

3595

Point number one shows the Price Objective indicated by the P&F chart- up to the 1500+ range is indicated.

Point number 2 is the solid Bullish Resistance line which has formed underneath- a good indicator we won't head down in the immediate future. Although we're bound to get some zig-zag action - the general trend has finally broken, and we're headed up. You have to be in to win, as they say.

Good luck- and remember- this offer not valid in any state, your mileage may vary, I am not an investment professional, this is not investment advice, and you take only the risk that you are comfortable in taking.

And all the other fine print, too.

airlift

03-25-2008, 08:37 AM

I think you are doing fine job with posting tne P&F chart with your interpretation. Can you please post today's indications if possible before 12 Estern time? Thanks.

James48843

03-25-2008, 10:54 AM

OK_ here is the chart for today.

We're still within the upside trading range- although we had a little of the red this morning, that's fully to be expected, as we've had a nice runup over the last week, and the market needs to take a breather.

What is interesting is how strong the market is, despite having to take a breather. Here in the chart, I've marked two points. The top one, in purple, is where we are right now- about 1348 level. We ran up to 1354 this morning- and then eased off. I expect that this little wave is going to go lower this afternoon as well, as those who have made some real money are taking their profits off the table today.

3600

On the down side, we're due for a slight pullback. That's ok. The second point I've marked is the 1310 level, where we were the last time we were down here. The bullish support line is still solid, AND we've crossed above the 50 day moving average. That tells me that while we're likely to have a slight pullback this afternoon, overall, the trend is still for higher ahead. There appears to be lots of money on the sidelines looking to get in, so I would venture to guess that the next "low" here, in teh next couple days, will not be below the 1310-1320 range, and if it does slide down there, lots of money will pour in, and we'll retake the 1355 number again within a very short time.

I'm in, I'm staying, and let's see how it plays out. I plan to continue to hold, within "C", and expect a longer term upside here. Next exit for me will be either 1490ish, on the upside, or a stop-loss out should it turn down in a big way. My guess is the former, not the latter.

Best of luck.

James48843

03-26-2008, 08:13 AM

Today should be the day for a little breather. That's ok. We've moved up a LOT in the last five trading sessions. I just did the numbers, and we're up over 6% in five days. we got our buy signal back on March 20, and we're looking good so far. So we are due for a rest, just to consolidate the nice move north we just had.

We got our "buy signal" on the 19th. We're in for the run. A pullback today is to be expected, although based on the fact that the S fund had a LOT of money pouring in over the last few days- and gained more than the S&P500, I'd say that there continues to be a lot of money ready to jump back in. That is a real sign to me that we're going to continue higher over the next week, except for today's minor pullback expected.

What is good here is that we are now in postive territory for the month overall. If that holds, and we end the month on a postive, that will be the first time since October that we've had a green month. If you go back over the course of history in the S&P500, there are very , very few instances where we've had five months in a row go bad. This is the break that we needed to break the curse.

Here is today's pre-market chart:

3601

I have marked as point #1 , in brown, the new trend line that we are seeing is the new direction. I expect the range on the top will fall right along that line. The chart is telling us we're headed to above 1500 before we get a faulter. I don't think we'll make it all the way there, but I DO think we'll make it much higher than here today.

I have marked as point #2, in orange, where I expect today's market to take us- perhaps back down to the 1320 range. That will simply be a consolidation stroke, nothing more. That's fine. And then I expect it to start right back north again.

Because it's likely we will have a lot of market action, I chose yesterday not to try and bail and take advantage of today's fall. The reason is that I think it will be either a quick snap down, and then the buyers will pour back in, meaning that our noon deadline doesn't give us a good opportunity to make a play here. I think we'll spend very little time at the 1320-1330 range before it will snap right back up into the 1350+ range, so it's not worth expending two moves to try and caputre it- my thoughts are that if it does reach down to 1320 range, it will only be for a matter of minutes or hours, not days, and that means little chance of a once-a-day move being able to hit it just right. Plus, money will flow in during the last hour, and bring it back close to today's opening level.

Anyway, that's my thoughts. I could be completely wrong. I have been before.

I'm sitting nicely in "C". And will continue to sit here, waiting for the month to be over, and then looking at where I need to be, to be ready for a quick-two-step in April.

My goal these days is to only make no more than 2 moves per month, within the intent of the proposed limits- while still fighting against the limits full bore.

If I can beat the S&P on two moves per month, strategically timed, then I have met my goal. If I can better the S&P500 (which, by the way, I am doing so far this year- by 2% per month- not bad if you ask me), then I've exceeded my goal.

airlift

03-26-2008, 08:38 AM

Good job James. Great news from NTEU's backing. Stay with it!

Wrngway

03-26-2008, 09:54 AM

James,

Thanks for your input and posts! I've incorporated the P&F into my daily items to check now.

One question...The predicted upper end of the current trend, 1500+ in this case...How is that determined?

I know we halted the last decline prior to the predicted low of 1320 and I also don't expect to get all the way up to 1500, but I'm curious as to how that number is arrived at.

Guest2

03-26-2008, 01:11 PM

Today should be the day for a little breather.

Thanks for all your hard work James!

James48843

03-26-2008, 01:25 PM

it's actually holding up better than I thought it would. I figured we'd be about 5 to 8 points lower than we are about now, at least. I still think we may run down a tad more, but probably not much. I think an hour from now money will start flowing back in, and we'll only have about half the loss for the day that we have now.

Im thinking we'll finish slightly lower for the day today, maybe even finish tomorrow in the 1325 range-and then next week, provided there is any good news at all out there- we go back up again. We need to get the three "O"s to form here- which means we need to get below 1330, before we head back up again. We're not there just quite yet.

We'll see how it works out.

James48843

03-27-2008, 10:14 AM

Today's read:

Market is holding up exaclty as expected. Yesterday I said we'd dip below 1330 , and need to wallow around a bit between 1320 and maybe even touch below 1320 before we head back north again. We touched the 1330 mark this morning. I HOPE we drop to 1325 today, so we can get it out of the our system, and start moving north again. But the market is showing a LOT of strength now- so we might have hit the low when we have hit the 1330 mark. Not sure yet.

Here is the chart for this morning, and I expect we may got just a tad lower, but everything continues to tell me that next week is going to be a full recovery and headed north once again once we get through this slight breather period.

3606

I've put a little orange arrow in showing where I think we need to go to get the "O"S, to appear, that will single the uptick is ready to start. We have to get below 1330 for them to appear, and we haven't got that yet, at least not as of 10:45 this morning.

Removed1

03-27-2008, 10:26 AM

James48843

03-27-2008, 10:18 PM

OK- here we go. tomorrow will be the good day- and here's what is going to happen.

Tomorrow morning, we'll have a dip in the first hour. I say that because we STILL did not get the "O"s to appear today- we need to drop below 1320 for those "O"s to show up, and that should happen in the morning tomorrow.

Here is the chart from today- with a close at 1325.76 we ALMOST made it to the stage of "O"s appearing, but no cigar today.

3623

Again, what this is REALLY telling us, is there is a WHOLE LOT of strength out there ready to come back into the market- it's not been enough to get the "O"s to appear, so when it does tomorrow moring, we're at the place we need to be to build the foundation to start moving back up.

I could be wrong, but as of 11 pm. estern time- this is my thought-

Tomorrow, within the first two hours, we'll break below the 1320 level, and that will mark the appearance of those "O"s. that's where those "O's will appear by the orange line I have drawn, and that's what we need to get in order to turn things around and head north.

Provided that there isn't any adverse news tomorrow (and that is probably the one thing that could derail this), then by afternoon we'll get money flooding in for the last hour, and we COULD close higher tomorrow- like 1335, and headed north for the weekend.

Not sure- but that is what my gut is telling me. Lower morning, followed by the rebound in the afternoon.

Good luck, and happy investing. We'll see by late tomorrow afternoon whether or not this is the case.

James48843

03-27-2008, 10:21 PM

Hi James,
I am still learning,what is the relation of TYX and the F (or agg),one time 350Z explained if TNX goes up,agg (F) will go down or vice versa and how about TYX??TIA
appreciate your analysis and contribution to the board.TIA

Sorry, I have no idea. I can't answer that. Try asking 350Z, if he is the person who told you before. F (AGG) is not my area- I only use it as a holding vehicle, nothing else. I don't study it.

James48843

03-28-2008, 02:40 PM

OK- FINALLY we got the downside nick that I was expecting.

I think what that tells me- the fact that it took three days and a lot of effort to break far enough for the "O"s to appear, is that there is a lot of money trying very hard to work it's way in, and kept proping it up.

That's ok- it's not really a bad sign at all that it took this long. Remember, the P&F charts horizontally do not have a relation to clock time. It only has a relation to vertical movement.

So now we've crossed below the 1320 mark, and are wallowing around between 1310 and 1320.

Here is this afternoon's chart:

3626

I have put in and marked the Orange line showing the appearance finally of the "O" column.

If we really did in fact have the reversal on March 19th like the chart is showing, we're now within range of the bullish resistance line below. That means we've come down about as far as it is going to go (give or take 10 points, I'd say) and we'll be ready to head north again shortly.

Hang on- let's see what the last 20 minutes of trading does today. We're actually negative for the month now, which would make it the fifith month in a row in the red for the S&P500- something that has not happened in a LONG long time.

James48843

03-31-2008, 08:49 AM

OK- here is the theroy for today-

We've now settled the 1312 bottom here- and, according to the P&F chart, we should consolidate here in this range (no lower than 1300, but going between 1300 and 1310 area is possible. ) And then, according to that heavy blue "bullish support line", we SHOULD bounce back upward again.

At least that would be true if in fact we have broken the bear market jinx. We'll just have to wait and see what we get.

Here is the chart on the open this morning. I've marked in where we are, and made a hail-mary prediction. If in fact we've broken the bear, then we should shoot back up to the 1350 range very soon.

3636

We could use a little good news from somewhere, to give the markets a shot in the arm. Whether it comes today, this week, or even in the next couple weeks, I don't know. But we need a good sign from someone to kick the money flow loose and head north again.

My gut tells me, that even though we started off in the red today, that we're ready for a bounce upward. Hang on, cause it should be here any time now.

That's it for today. Cross your fingers and let's see if we in fact head north shortly, or if everything falls apart, and we resume the bear market action.

Only time will tell.

James48843

03-31-2008, 11:08 AM

James what is your allocation and are you planning any changes today? I'm picking up the G penny and contemplating C/S/I.

I am, and have been since March 19th, 100% "C" fund.

I am not playing these minor ups and downs, as I am trying my best to limit my personal moves to no more than 2 per month. I'm doing that not because I got a letter or anything (I did not) , but because I want to see how well I can do on a two-per-month theory.

I am in now because we got the major turn signal from red to blue. I'll stay in UNLESS we break below the bullish support line, OR, unless we get close to the "price objective" shown in the 1500 range. Those will be my two major indicators of making a move either in or out.

Other than that, I won't pull out UNLESS I see some kind of classic opportunity to escape on a down wave-where I see I have a very high likehood of moving out and then buying back in at a lower level. I've actually done that a couple of times this year- so techincally I am 6.5% or so ahead of the "C" fund, while being in the "C" the majority of the time, so I have caught the rebounds every time.

Hope that helps - I don't want to do quick ins and outs as I am trying to keep the number of moves to the minimum.

James48843

04-01-2008, 09:25 AM

... I've marked in where we are, and made a hail-mary prediction. If in fact we've broken the bear, then we should shoot back up to the 1350 range very soon.

3636

We could use a little good news from somewhere, to give the markets a shot in the arm. ....

My gut tells me, that even though we started off in the red today, that we're ready for a bounce upward. Hang on, cause it should be here any time now.

That's it for today. Cross your fingers and let's see if we in fact head north shortly, or if everything falls apart, and we resume the bear market action.

Only time will tell.

Bingo. Strong move.

whitemingo

04-01-2008, 09:28 AM

James,

I am still working on learing to understand the chart. When we get to 1350 is that when the Xs will start to fill in for an upward move?

James48843

04-01-2008, 09:42 AM

Yes- The "X"s will appear when we get three boxes away from the bottom of the "O"s. I am not sure exactly whether that will show up at 1350 or 1360- not sure exactly where the low was. But in either case, I see us hitting a "higher high" on this cycle, before the wave washes out, and the tide turns back to a higher low.

SHORT LESSON: IT TAKES THREE BOXES OF PRICE MOVEMENT TO GET THE OPPOSITE SYMBOL TO APPEAR.

Again, the whole thing is telling me we hit the bottom when the blue lined formed underneath- so unless some outside factor hits us (which CAN happen-) then we will continue with the waves of higher highs, and higher lows, until we reach up to the "price objective" territory.

Here is this morning's chart so far:

3645

I've marked off that the chart is saying we should reach into the 1360-70 range as a "higher high" before it lets off and goes back down a little again.

In general, we've had a pretty consistent "waves" flowing up and down recently. Time to start thinking about whether to catch one of these waves, and try to make it work for me. I THINK we may have another up day tomorrow- in that case we'll son reach upward to that 1360-1370 area.

What I have been trying to do is to only move ONCE PER MONTH OUT, and then once back in, in trying to keep in tune with FTRIB's proposal (which I adamently oppose, by the way).

But only if I get a VERY HIGH LIKELYHOOD of catching the wave at the right point. If I can better the S&P 500 by 1 to 2% EACH MONTH in this fashion, then I would consider it very, very successful. So far this year, so good- I'm above the S&P, and trying only to make very in frequent moves, and just catch a wave here and there. When we have periods like this when we have pretty good ups and downs, then we have something to work with.

That's my 2 cents- your milage may vary. I'm not a professional, so don't listen to me. You are warned.

whitemingo

04-01-2008, 09:46 AM

Thank you. The chart just answered my question also.

James48843

04-01-2008, 10:21 AM

OK- now we've had the "X"s appear- here is the chart:

3646

By the way, the number "4" appears to signify that is where the chart was on the open on the 4th month (april 1st).

And I have penciled in a fourth "X" in orange, predicting what I think is about to happen. I think we'll get that fourth "X", up around the 1360 level, before we slack off again.

One little note here. I WAS expecting a 1350-1360 ralley to appear. However, I was also expecting to go a tad bit lower before bouncing up. Since we only got a three "O" reversal, not a four "O" reversal, I am on guard that we MAY have a higher high into the 1370's this time, and it may happen very quick. That is NOT what I necessarily wanted- because the action is too quick to take advantage of. I would have rather it took three or four days to climb, so that I would have a good end-of-day target to bail out on.

Instead, with this quick of moves, I think I'll continue to just stay put for a while, and ride the rollar coaster some more.

James48843

04-01-2008, 02:54 PM

Nice.

The money pouring in indicated to me that we'll probably continue with a tweak up tomorrow, just a little more, just based on the momentum this afternoon.

But we've filled in that fourth "X" just today. Wham. Nice move up.

Here is the chart- showing we're right on track on the uptick here, sustaining the idea that we've chagned from a bear market, to a bullish one back towards the next indicated green price objective (P.O.) of 1510 or so.

3647

My gut tells me another day up, maybe 1370-1380 range tomorrow, and then we'll settle back a little from this run.

That's it for today. Congrats to everyone who is in right now.

Bullitt

04-01-2008, 02:58 PM

Something positive is a brewin'.

airlift

04-02-2008, 07:24 AM

James,
Although TA isn't an exact science, it is an excellent tool(s). There will be hits and misses, but it works. Your charts and explanation were impressive. Keep up the fine work. Thanks!

James48843

04-02-2008, 10:49 AM

Actually, things are looking pretty good- pretty impressive all the way around. After yesterday's big push up, I said we'd probably get some carry through into today, and that's true. This morning we saw a little bit of red as people took some profits, but overall, the trend looks exactly on course. I think today we'll pop above 1380 for a bit, and if we do, we should get a fifth "X" green above where we are now. Then, we should get a breather for bit. The good news is that these cycles or waves are pretty dog gone consistant, so I will pencil in here the next down wave bottom, with a penciled in orange "O", showing that I expect the next down cycle to only reach down into the 1340-1350 range. It may be a few days before we do that, but the likehood of doing it seem pretty good according to the chart.

Here is today's chart, as of 11:30.

3652

As I said before, I'm not going to try and catch any of these slight up and down waves here, unless I see a classic opportunity to set up and do it with a very high likelyhood of success. At the present time, we're getting too quick of swings for me to bank on a sure bet, so I'm just going to sit in, and enjoy the ride for a while.

Everything so far tells me the bullish support is back, at least for a while, so I am riding the waves and crests without moving. If, for some reason, we get some kind of breakdown ahead, then I'll bail, but it not, I'll be staying in for the time being, and watching for just the right moment (in a place with a little more stability) to catch a short profit on my two-moves per month.

Have a great day-
This is not advice, this is not a recommendation. I'm just a fed, not an investment professional. Don't do what I do, cause so far this year I 'm just in the middle of the pack.

Oh yea, and one more thing..."except in nebraska", my favorite disclaimer.

airlift

04-02-2008, 11:28 AM

James,
Your opinion and interpretation are important. Don't worry that you are not a professional. Neither are most of us. The value is that most people here are as bright or brighter than many professionals. Also, don't fail to post your short-term interpretations because some of us have both long and short term issues to manage. Thanks!

James48843

04-03-2008, 10:45 AM

Although there is no change today at all in anything in the P&F chart, something else, and I have no idea what it is, is compelling me to bail out today. The back of my neck started tingling last night, and I'm bailing out to "F" today, "just because".

No data to support this at all. None. Nada.

But I'm doing it.

Moving 100% F today.

sdouglas3

04-03-2008, 10:49 AM

James,

I appreciate your charting and honesty. Like you, I bailed yesterday. To much resistence right here and with the job numbers coming out tomorrow I just didn't feel like the market could sustain this run. I want to buy back in around the 50 day MA if it moves to that area.

Steve

Elgallo

04-03-2008, 12:55 PM

Interesting article here regarding payroll # and its effects on GDP. I Hope It's ok to post this as it is from a non pay site.

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?SiteName=Investor&ArticleId=NS20080403095732TheBigPicture

James48843

04-05-2008, 08:30 PM

OK- enough of the fireworks- I just used up my one-single trade this month on a hunch that I could pick off a tiny win on an up "F" day, and I did it. There was nothing saying that I should have moved my own account COB thursday to "F", the only thing that told me to do so was a little voice that I listened to, not the chart. I popped off an extra fraction from the "F" fund action, and am now back in "C", having moved back in on Friday- sorry for the sidetrack out there, but I got to catch them when I can, you know?

Anyway, here is where we are back on the PF Chart for C:

This is a classic formation here. We got a little more tweak out of the C fund on Friday, enought to form a sixth "X" above the line (shown here in green)

3667

That is a good, solid push up. And six up "X" squares means we increased momentum, rather than decreasing mometum. That is another sign that we are again in a strong upwave here, and it very well may be that we've broken the back of that bear that has been biting us for months.

What I would expect from here is perhaps a stronger day on Monday, with a repeat above that 1380 figure that caused the sixth up "X" to appear, followed very, very soon by some relief on a down wave. We've gotten a lot of upside over the last week, and the market soon will need a breather to take it all in. Whether the down mark comes monday (I would doubt that, it's possible of course, but the signs are showing continued strength, so I am thinking right now probably a 60% possibility or more of a positive day Monday), followed soon after by a releif drop.

When the drop comes, however, it will not be a whole lot on the down side. The indicators now are showing that when we go for the down side here, it looks a lot like we're only going to fall down to the 1350-1340 range. (I placed an orange (forecast) "O" where I think the retracement will come =down to the 1340 level).

The next question is when will we get there- back down to the 1340 range. That's a tough question. We've just run a number of days to the upside, and there appears to continue to be a lot of money on the sidelines ready to move in, as shown by the "S" strength last week. So it maybe tuesday or wednesday this week when we let off a little steam, or then again, maybe not. (See how non-committal I am? I could be a TV weatherman with forecasts like that, no? ) . When we head down, it looks to me like we will get just three "O"S down this cycle. With six up "X"s now, and forecasting three "O"s shortly ahead, all signs continue to point to a higher future here. The only thing that is going to break that is if we get some really bad unexpected news from somewhere. Remember, the charts are pretty good indicators, right up until some outside influence screws something up. But we tossed aside a poor jobs report on Friday and kept on going. That tells me the news that will change this cycle will have to be pretty dog gone bad to realy have an impact.

Anyway- this is what my gut is telling me today. Monday, probably a slight tick higher, followed this week by letting off a small amount of steam. Absolutely no reason to bail out is indicated if you are in for the longer term- these cycles appear to be getting pretty regular.

IF I hadn't blown my one trade for the month already, I think I MIGHT think about trying to move to the sidelines Monday, and hope for a slide back down later in the week to buy back in. As it is, however, it's not a clear enough opportunity for me now, so I'll sit tight in "C" now, and enjoy the ride.

That's it for today. Enjoy.

James48843

04-05-2008, 08:52 PM

Interesting tidbit to consider:

I just checked the TSPTALK Daily Autotracker "IFT of the Day", and found 25 of the last 30 moves were people moving from stocks to a position of 50% or more safety.

That's pretty abnormal, even for here. We seldom get that many all moving in the same direction in the same couple of days.

And ten of the top twelve performers on the autotracker are now sitting in the safety of either "G" or "F" right now.

Just another useless factoid --many TSPTALKERS seem to go both ways- right and wrong- overall, - but I thought it was a piece of intereesting information to toss out there.

BigJohn

04-05-2008, 09:22 PM

I, for one, happen to think we are near the end of the downturn. I have no economic data or charts to back me up...one of the main reasons I rarely post, for fear of leading someone off a cliff. It just seems to me the media keeps feeding on itself with all the negative and things don't appear to be so bad...the stimulus checks hit next month (and even if on a purely economic basis they should have little impact) I think they will because the media will keep talking about it. Which just completes the circle of economic events that have an impact that is skewed by what the talking heads decided to make it out to be...they have been trying to "sell" recession for weeks, and it hasn't quite jived with the numbers, at least not yet. So for me, I think it is a good time to look at getting in. BUT WHAT DO I KNOW, I WAS A POLY SCI MAJOR....

So, as one of those currently in the G and in the top twelve...I am looking at getting back in the game very soon.

BigJohn

James48843

04-07-2008, 10:23 AM

Nothing new to report in today's chart. It is essentially the same as Friday's chart. Friday we hit 1380.91, this morning we hit 1380.52.

Both marks were a little more stretch than the market was ready for, and they promptly took profits to the sidelines. So we've hit the 1380+ mark twice in two days, the second day not quite as high as the first day. Evidence, however, small, that we're a little stretched here.

I could put up the chart- but I won't, because there is absolutely nothing new in the P&F today. That tells me that we continue on track for what I said last week- a very real possibility of a slightly higher close today than we had on friday, but we've stretched it out pretty good now, and we should expect a small retracement sometime this week.

My gut tells me we'll take a small breather the next couple of days, but the downside will only be to between the 1340 and 1350 marks. Then we'll have another wave higher soon.

Of course, I could be wrong- have been many times before. But the market seems to be holding up very, very well, considering we had some not so pleasent news on the jobs report last week, Oil hitting $107 again this morning, and, well, generally we wil get news this week about 1st quarter reports out of several of the Dow components. If the earnings reports are negative in nature, which they very well may be, it will be time to let off a little steam tomorrow and perhaps wednesday. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

If we were in an environment that didn't matter at all about the number of IFT's, I would probably move out today, at least partially, through dollar cost averaging. Maybe move half to the sidelines.

But nowadays they are all very sensitive to movement- so I will simply let things ride through this next wave cycle. I've made my two moves for the month- so I don't really plan to move any more.

Best of luck- and let's see what the rest of today brings.

My prediction- slightly higher by the close, and then down a little tomorrow.

We'll see how it pans out.

James48843

04-08-2008, 01:11 AM

Yep- we ended yesterady with a wimper, after being up all day, ending up closing just a tad higher.

That means we're ready to dump off a lot of steam today. A down day today expected. (Tuesday).

I expect we'll be back down to 1345 shortly, with the projected bottom of this wave down being 1340 to 1350. I doubt it will get much below that, unless some really bad news comes out.

Hang on- here we go for the roller coaster ride again.

James48843

04-09-2008, 09:08 AM

Yesterday's selling, and this morning's slight downturn, are perfectly on track for what is expected. On Monday I said we'd hit the top for a couple days, and were ready for some steam to be let out, and that's exactly what the chart is showing.

If we continue with the "expected" off the chart, then expect the next few days to come down to the 1340's range. We're at 1360ish now. I've penciled in, in orange, where the chart is telling us this is expected to go- I've put in several orange dots, and an orange "O" at the point that I think this wave will take us down to. If the bullish support line is going to hold (I think it should), then we'll see the 1340 range shortly. (1350 to 1340 is about 95% possible in my book, 1330 is only 50% possibility in my book, and anything below 1320 is highly UNlikely, unless we get some outside bad news for some reason.)

Anyway- here is the chart-

3687

Don't look for any upside tick again until we get at least three "O"s to appear- which should be in the next day or two. There seems to be a lot of money still out there, so it may not be today, and it might not even be tomorrow, but I do think we'll get those "O"s to appear in the not too distant future. And that's what we need- a good solid 1340's number, before we're headed north again.

It will take 1350 broken to get the three "O"s to appear. And I think we'll get that easily. A 1340 would get us a fourth "O' on the downside. That's about all I would expect based on current data.

Good luck- and let's see how it pans out.

James48843

04-09-2008, 02:39 PM

Almost 1350....:)

1350.13 at 2:11 CST. Heading up?

Nope- in my opinion it may have bottomed for today, but it's not over with the wave down yet- the three "O"s have not yet appeared- it didn't cross 1350. So it's not hit bottom today.

My gut tells me it will take at least another day to reach down below 1350 into the 1340 range, the "O"s will appear, and then we get a chance to back up again.

This thing seems to work very well- let's see if that theroy holds water or not.

hessian

04-09-2008, 03:15 PM

Hey James,
FYI, the 3 "O"s are now showing on the p&f.
Also we broke the 1350, at one point today.
(Day's Range: 1349.97 - 1368.39)
So is this not good enough, for bounce/run-up tomorrow?:)
VR
3689

James48843

04-09-2008, 03:27 PM

My My- so we did break through the 1350 for a minute today to 1349.97.

Amazing.

And sure enough- the breakthrough was enough to make three red "O"s appear.

But if you look closely, there is still one more box that looks like it needs to be filled in in order to keep the pattern going.

My hunch is still that we will fill the box in that last box shortly- like probably tomorrow (maybe not, maybe friday, but I think tomorrow ought to do it).

Here is the chart- with the orange line to show the one box that needs to get filled in.

3690

Tomorrow is another day.

whitemingo

04-09-2008, 03:29 PM

Hessian,

I am still trying to learn to use this chart but see the note on the high pole warning.

The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future

whitemingo

04-09-2008, 03:36 PM

James,

Am I correct in seeing that there was high pole warnings at the start of the two down trend red lines?

RPM

04-09-2008, 04:08 PM

It will take 1350 broken to get the three "O"s to appear. And I think we'll get that easily. A 1340 would get us a fourth "O' on the downside. That's about all I would expect based on current data.

Good luck- and let's see how it pans out.

We got the three "O"s end of today! You are good! Thank you :)

James48843

04-09-2008, 04:42 PM

Yes- thanks for picking up on the "High Pole" warning- I didn't even catch that when I posted earlier.

Here is what a "High Pole" warning is:

See my message here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=133644&postcount=36

And then let's talk a little about this.

3691

Could be an indicator of change here- but not totally, and in a minute, I 'll post why:

James48843

04-09-2008, 04:48 PM

From:

Here is what they say for guidelines:

Guidelines
Below are some useful guidelines to consider when buying stocks (reverse for selling stocks):

Buy stocks when the percentage of bullish stocks has a column of Xs, especially on an upturn from below 10%.
Buy stocks whose sector relative strength chart has a column of Xs.
Buy stocks whose relative strength chart has a column of Xs.
Buy stocks that are above their Bullish Support and Bearish Resistance Lines.
Buy stocks that have some kind of bullish signal.
Consider buying some stocks that are in a pullback, but whose relative strength has a column of Xs.
Look to take profits whenever the percentage of bullish stocks is above 70% (and especially above 80%) and have a column of Os.
Rising bottoms are stronger than flat bottoms.
Based on a research study, the strength of bullish signals in order are: Triple Top, Spread Triple Top, Bullish Signal, Double Top

Tidbit number 8 is interesting here- since it's a rising bottom, and we're above the bullish support line, I'm thinking we're more likely than not to simply bounce off the bottom and resume the upward movement in a few days.

However, the fact that we have an official "High Pole Warning" puts me at a much higher state of alert, and I'll be watching tomorrow to see what to do before the noon cutoff. Since I can't do anything else this month (already moved twice) while staying within my self-imposed two-move per month limit (I'm trying it on for size, not because it's imposed yet, but rather I am trying to see how I can manage to do things with that kind of limit), I'm not going to pull any triggers yet.

However, I will be on-guard in case things go south in a hurry.

Again, my expectation is 1340ish, maybe 1330ish, but not anything lower than that. A big downturn below 1320 would cause me to pull a safety trigger and bail out.

James48843

04-10-2008, 05:29 AM

OK_ Just for the record-here goes a statement:

When Janaury first rolled around this year, I created an autotracker account that is called "P&F chart C". It was intended to be an account on the autotracker that mimics the buy and sell signals from this P&F chart.

Unfortunately, I was busy doing some other things (like trying to gain signatures for the tspshareholder.org thing), so I missed the sell signal a few days after the first of the year.

Since I missed that sell signal, I have simply "let it ride" the last four months- and it has exactly followed the S&P 500 *(The C fund) ever since. I never moved anything when the P&F chart moved- I simply let it ride.

Now that I'm done with the signature thing, I will begin to watch more closely, and make buys and sells when the P&F chart does.

Techincally, yesterday, at the close, the P&F chart hit a "High Pole Warning". That's a sell signal. So today, in the autotracker, I will be executing a trade to sell, and from here on out, I will be using the P&F chart signals for that autotracker account (which is different from my own pesonal account".

So we'll see if the P&F chart does better, or worse, than either staying in the C fund all the time, or my own actively managed account (my own being limited to two times per month, as I try and make decisions based on the proposed rules).

The High Pole warning means a sell signal at the close of business today. I'll enter the "PF Chart C" IFT today before noon.

thanks for watching.

James48843

04-10-2008, 10:49 AM

OK. Two questions - just your opinions, please James.

We seem to be headed up today. Is this a bounce off 1350 that will give us another leg up, or do you think we will head back down to 1340 by the end of the day?Answer: My gut is telling me there is lots of money on the sidelines, the bullish support line is below us still, and the fluctuations here are people trying to buy in for the future. Again, that's just gut feeling, nothing else. I still think we'll end up slightly down into the 1340's, before we head higher, but again, that's my gut. My gut is saying it may take a couple days to get that 1340's out of our system.

Q: Would that give us another row of "0's"?

Answer: No. We won't get another row of "O"S down, until we get another row of "X"s up. It takes three squares of movement to change direction. We are now within the existing row of "O"s, and that will continue, until such time as we either add another "O" below where we are now, in which case the chart is filled in, and we'll be ready to move higher (my gut again, just opinion), -OR-

OR we've already seen the downside here, and we'll get a new row of "X"s when the market rebounds here upward, and travels more than three units up, thereby reversing the "O" appearance from yesterday.

Q: High pole warning giving a sell signal to those in C. So would that be a buy signal for those sitting on the sidelines in F and G?

Answer: No- that would be a signal for everyone to go to the sidelines, and then wait for a new postive buying signal to appear.

James48843

04-10-2008, 10:54 AM

Looking again at the chart just now- I'd say it's possible we have hit bottom and are rebounding up now. It will take crossing over the 1380 mark on the upside to get the "X"s to appear, in which case I have NO IDEA what that High Pole warning yesteday was all about.

I am keeping my OWN funds in stocks today, not trading out.(see last night's comments), although I am going to go ahead with the PF Chart C autotracker account and make a move out on that.

RPM

04-10-2008, 01:56 PM

James:

Do you why there is such difference between $SPX and SPY on the P&F charts? TIA

James48843

04-10-2008, 03:28 PM

James:

Do you why there is such difference between $SPX and SPY on the P&F charts? TIA

You ask an interesting question.

I'll try and write something up in answer, and post it tonight in this thread:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3493

The sum of your question comes down to "Why don't ETF's perform exactly in line with the indexes they are supposed to represent?"

And that answer will take more than I can do here.

See you over on that thread later tonight.

James48843

04-11-2008, 09:53 AM

Yep- it will have to dip down below the magic 1340 in order to get that last "O" to appear.

Either today, or Monday, would be a good timeframe for it to happen.

Remember, in P&F charting, timeframes have NO impact whatsoever on the chart. It could be today, it could be two weeks from now. What DOES seem to work in this theory is the numbers, not the times. It's "two dimensional" tracking.

But isn't it interesting, techincally, to watch how it works?

James48843

04-11-2008, 11:34 AM

That 1340 number is holding up pretty well, no? Interesting how we are RIGHT on the cusp of that puppy, and it hasn't broken yet.

EW_ret

04-11-2008, 12:49 PM

It broke below 1339 at 1:30 pm. What does it mean when S&P500 breaks 1340 and another O is added? Watch out for further weakness, or its next move is back up, next week, in two weeks, or next month?

James48843

04-11-2008, 01:09 PM

OK- Bingo. We got the 1340 broken, and the "O" has appeared:

3703

Now, what SHOULD happen, is that we can roll around here a little bit, but the 1330 floor underneath us is solid at steel. Since we're still above that blue "Bullish Support Line", we MAY spend a day or two in the 1330-1340 range, BUT-- then we should head back up. IF and when we do, the next cycle up will be to the 1390-1400 range. That assumes we go up.

That's IF the bullish support line holds. I tend to think it will, only because we're in an up-slope line, and because although the news isn't very pleaseant these days, we seem to get money flowing back in each time we've gotten to the bottom of these waves for the last couple times.

The fact that we got a "high pole warning" on April 9th means that we COULD be in for some trouble here, though. We'll just have to wait and see how it works out.

Our make-believe "PF Chart C" account in the autotracker made the move to safety yesterday. We'll continue to watch now and see what happens over the longer term.

Isn't this fun?

Intrepid_Timer

04-11-2008, 11:09 PM

This should help us next week:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080411/credit_crisis.html

James48843

04-14-2008, 08:43 AM

BY all accounts-if you subscribe to the theroy that we're still in the up cycle here, then the floor should stay above the blue "bullish support line".

That means we COULD fall as low as 1320, and still remain in the upward trend. A fall below 1320 and we could get the break of the bullish support line. (I am not exaclty sure here is the magic number is 1320 or 1310 to break downward the bullish support line, it' s kind of hard to tell here in this graphic:

3724

However, the general trend is still showing that we should not expect lower than a 1330, so for now, that remains the low side target on this wave.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

I'm still in, waiting to see if the blue bullish support line is penetrated. If not, then we should go back north very shortly. If it does get penetrated to the downside, then we have a long way down, and I will bail out.

Let's see how the day goes.

My money is riding (literally) on the bottom being at the 1330 level. We'll see.

James48843

04-14-2008, 10:05 AM

Yep- we bounced down to 1328.49, and then came right back up above the 1330 level.

We'll see what that means later today.

The move below 1330 caused the new "O" to appear-

3725

We're still good for the turnaround shortly, PROVIDED that there is no new bad news as an outside driver.

Remember- this thing works most of the time- except that outside forces can and do drive changes in direction.

I'm still banking on the 1320 will hold, and we'll go back up. In fact, that 1330 has been a pretty solid resistance force, except for that one little blip this morning.

We'll see how it pans out.

James48843

04-16-2008, 09:47 AM

Yep - now here is where it gets very interesting.

Take a look at two possible scenarios from here on out.

The first is this:

Scenario #1: IF we are truely still in a bear market, then the index will rise only enough to get the next row of "X"s, which should cap out around 1360 to 1370 range, and then we head back down.

I've penciled in an orange "Bearish resistance line" that would then officially form, and we continue to head downward. This is labled as possiblity #1.

3733

However, I think a MORE likely scenario is possibility #2.

Secnario #2: IF, (and only if) we are going to continue in a positive direction, THEN, we will very shortly break above 1360, and keep going higher. The chart shows that IF we truely hit bottom a couple weeks ago, and IF we are now headed higher for the future, THEN we have a nice big upturn coming in over the near future. Under Scenario #2, then we have a 1390 to 1400 range well within site, before we get the next breather.

My gut tells me we are MUCH MORE likely to be experiencing possibility #2 than possibility #1.

I say that because EVEN WITH all the negative news out there, there seems to be an awful lot of money on the sidelines, ready to jump in, every time we get even a hint that things are not so bad after all.

True, it doesn't really make a lot of sense, what with the amount of money evaporating with the mortgage meltdown, etc., etc.

Why then do I think this?

Personally, I think we're past the April 15th slaughter- where lots of people take money out of the market prior to Tax day, knowing that they have to use that money to pay their taxes.

Me? I'm fine this year. I did my taxes over the weekend, and, because of some things I did last year, I will end up getting a healthier refund than I was expecting.

So some of that money that I have sitting in "emergency standby" mode, just in the unlikely event that I had an unexpectedly high tax bill, - well, that money is now free to be plugged into the market. And it will be. And I think there are others out there like me. (Injection of money to market #1).

And when I get that refund in a couple weeks, (Injection #2), I may take a bit of that money and invest it. That will be a tick up perhaps three or four weeks from now.

And then, when the "stimulus check" for me arrives in May-- a few weeks after than- well, to me, that looks like injection of money #3, and it only looks like a much higher May and June ahead.

That's my 2 cents worth, anyway.

James48843

04-16-2008, 02:35 PM

Now comes the critical time.

We've reached 1360- so far, so good. And that makes the next row of "X"s appear.

3737

However- this is why we're at a critical juncture-

As I said this morning- if we are truely in a recovery phase, then the market will continue upwards (even though we may get a slight pullback tomorrow, as we went up very quick and need a small rest),

--OR---

If we're NOT in a recovery phase, then this was just a quick runup before a major downturn.

If the 1360 holds- then our next stop up for a pause is in the 1390 to 1400 range.

But if we're truely in a bear market, then we're about to head STRAIGHT DOWN and into the toilet, breaking the bullish support line underneath, and tanking downward significantly.

My money is still on a recovery- as I outlined this morning. I see at least three new waves of money about to flow into the market (Wave #1 started to come in today).

So be especially on guard - and be ready to be nimble- pay VERY CLOSE ATTENTION over the next couple days, and if it looks like things head south (which COULD very well happen- especially since Oil hit $115 today), then things could go very bad, very quick, and we'll want to jump to the sidelines quickly.

I'm in --to win.

Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Steadygain

04-16-2008, 04:07 PM

I'm in --to win.

Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Amen brother, I'm right there with ya.

James48843

04-18-2008, 07:47 AM

Yesterday's action was just as I expected- a little consolidation for the A.M., and ended up just a smidge higher for the day. One more postive sign that we continue in the upswing, and have thrown off the nay-sayers.

I talked a couple days ago about the next leg up here. All signs continue to point to this wave reaching higher- specifically, I'm thinking into the 1390 to 1400 range, before we take another pause and fall back a little.

Below, I've penciled in where I think today --and maybe Monday--will lead. I've penciled in three more "X"s in Orange. That would take us up to the 1390 level. It's possible we'll even break a fourth "X", to 1400, but I am not as sure about that. Anyway, the reason I say 1390 is, as before, the charts have been pretty dog-gone consistant lately, and the 1390 range is where the sloping uptick is taking us.

Anyway- here is the chart- with the three new ORANGE predicted "X"s that I think will appear shortly.

3750

I feel about 75% or better sure that we'll get that 1390 level shortly. Not quite as sure about 1400, although I think we're probably 50/50 on that.

Anyway, that's what my crystal ball --and the P&F chart-- is saying to me this morning. Your mileage can vary, I have been wrong many times, and we really won't know until the markets digest all the news of the day.

P.S.- watch out for earthquakes in the mid-west. You NEVER know when some piece of news you weren't expecting to see falls out of the sky, or wells up from below, and "shakes" the market when you least expect it. Who knows- we could have the single biggest down-day in Dow history, if just one or two significant things shake up things. After all- its PEOPLE who buy and sell shares, and PEOPLE can be the MOST unpredictable things in the end.
'

James48843

04-18-2008, 09:03 AM

How about that!

3751

My guess is we'll eek out another half-dozen points before the end of the day today, to above 1390, maybe even hit 1396-98, and then it will be time for a rest.

Steadygain

04-18-2008, 11:26 AM

P.S.- watch out for earthquakes in the mid-west.

I own a nice sized home (and please forgive me if it sounds like I'm bragging) - but it would really take a powerful force to even remotely move it.

I live where tornados are fairly common and still long to see one - always hoping when a warning sounds on our alert system or on the radio that I can find a spot to watch it.

Well this morning I woke to actually feeling the foundations of my house moving - now that means the whole house - so of course I'm thinking whoa "IT HAS TO BE..." But there wasn't the "Train sounding wind" and it only lasted for a few seconds - so I thought Whew!! it must have been just the outer edge as it bounced along it's path. So my wife asked if I felt anything this morning and was relieved it was not her imagination. Then as soon as I'm driving to work the radio let me know what happended.

WELL ENOUGH - NOTHING DAMAGED AND I'M GLAD TO HAVE HAD THE EXPERIENCE.

Thanks for your guidance my friend - the extra money feels good; I still have all the confidence in the world I'll end the year with gains.

James48843

04-18-2008, 12:02 PM

OK- so we got the extra "X" today. I was thinking we would, but we got it so early, that I think we're going to eek out one more "X" out of the deal before we pause.

My prediction is we'll hold this level today, and maybe even squeek out one more "X", above the 1400 level, either today, or Monday.

And then, it will be time for a rest. I am seriously considering making a move before noon on Monday to capture the gains and hold it a few days. I have already made one in and out move this month. I have said I am trying as hard as I can to keep to the "two move per month" ideal of Tracey Ray, and I did so last month. I scalped a good 1.6% gain earlier this month doing the in-and-out over two days, but this one is looking much more like a better candidate to take the profits, so I MAY try and do it again with a quick out and then back in next week.

We'll have to wait until Monday morning to see how the stars are lining up- but my gut is saying Monday higher still, (by a fraction), and then lower on tuesday, etc, as profit takers move in. We'll see. the other possibility is to buy up some SDS on Monday in my brokerage account, and do it that way as well. Not sure yet, but the pickings look pretty good.

As I said before- now that we are past the April 15th tax day deadline, more money will be flowing into the markets, so that 1510 price target (PRICE OBJECTIVE- orP.O.) is not too far away over the course of the next month or so. At least that is what I am thinking, but we should have some good see-saw action between now and then.

here is the chart, as of 12:45. I'm done with lunch, and back to work- but it sure seems to be predictable with the P&F chart backing, no?

3753

I've drawn in an overhead line-just to show where the trend is- that we should hit possibly one more "X" today or monday, and then we'll be ready to come back down a bit. The trend is your friend, and we've seen the bullish support line hold several times now, so I am thinking we're going to get the wave next week (down a little, and then back up again).

See ya.

JTH

04-18-2008, 12:53 PM

I am seriously considering making a move before noon on Monday to capture the gains and hold it a few days.

I've been playing between 40C & 60C with the rest in G for the entire month. I've been able to keep some nice gains with limited risk.

This little piggy is packing up his marbles and going home to G. I'd rather hold on to my gains for the month and wait for a good re-entry point. It seems the Media has had a positive bias lately. I'm not convienced the market has been acting rational. I just have to believe oil and gas prices will trickle down. :cool:

James48843

04-18-2008, 09:35 PM

Days ends with this:

Triple top breakout.

Triple Top Breakout
3759

Triple Top Breakout
A triple top breakout is similar to a double top breakout except that the price at which the breakout occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. This implies that the price level is a more significant area of resistance (area where sellers are willing to sell the stock and create supply that outstrips demand) than what is seen on a double top. The breakout above this level implies that the buyers are now creating more demand than there is supply and therefore the prices are breaking out.

Very interesting. I think we'll see higher on Monday, so I am hanging on, although I am preparing to bail - you may have noticed on the conventional charts, a slight gap up this morning- meaning that we'll soon be back here to retrace and fill in the gap- I think it' likely we'll pop up a few more points on Monday, and then later in the week drift back down into that 1350-1360 range to fill in the gap.

Got my fingers crossed, anyway- I'm in till at least Monday- we'll see how it goes then.

TSPinWV

04-19-2008, 09:00 AM

Got my fingers crossed, anyway- I'm in till at least Monday- we'll see how it goes then.

thanks for the information. :)
I wish you well with the early part of the week. I moved Friday AM and locked in the gains, in anticipation of a rough start to next week.

JTH

04-24-2008, 07:46 PM

Bump...

I miss this thread :(

James48843

04-25-2008, 10:54 PM

Here is my take-

We closed today at 1397 and change. that's pretty darn good for the week. We fell back a little earlier this week, but today, being a friday, the market decided it wanted to sneak up and retest that area.

3800

We're still showing a gap down around 1364 or so. The market TRIED to go down and fill in that gap, but it didn't make it down that far on the first attempt. Fine- that 's ok.

And if I were to take a random guess, I would probably say that that gap IS going to get filled in sometime, the question is when. We've seen recent similar moves where it took two, or even three cycles between lowers and highers for gaps to get filled in, and then move again. I missed the timing of the first attempt down, but I think I hit it better today for a possible second drift down I anticipate next week.

We dropped back earlier this week and ALMOST made it down to the gap at 1364, but we didn't make it.

Then we bounced right back up again,

That bouce was proof that there is lots of money on the sidelines that is more interested in proving the momentum has changed, rather than the money on the sideline actually taking news and reports into account.

Is that money "real money?" Yes, but only to a little extent. The "REAL money" is probably looking at these waves and licking it's chops and the possiblity to make money.

After all, oil spiked up all week, we had an oil tanker attacked one day, and the U.S. fire on an Iranian vessle another day. Syria's nukes were in the news, the economy is stumbing, the price of gas jumped a quarter over the last three weeks. You would figure that at SOME point, the market would take notice, and dump. But so far, people are more anticipating that the bottom has been seen, and that all is well in Flyover country. So a lot of little people on the sidelines have begun buying back in. The "real money" is being cautious though- and looking for the right opportunities. Will they see them this week?

I think what were seeing is just a temp uptick right now- that we WILL come back and fill in the 1364 gap- but more importantly, although the conventional chart looks like a coiled spring to me about to go north, I really think (perhaps 60%) that we;'ll have at least one more cooling off and down a little, before the spring up happens.

We'll see.

My bet is- Monday slightly higher, then tuesday, and maybe wednesday will be lower.

I am hoping a Tuesday buying opportunity will present itself- for one last "hurrah" before the new limits take affect.
Thrity days in April- . Which means I'd have to place a buy before noon on Tuesday next week, if I wanted to enter the month of May INVESTED rather than on the sidelines trying to take a quick snippet.
It's possible it will go either way- but I am thinking higher monday, then down Tuesday. I'm going to try and clip a little before we enter May.

This is all just Opnion only- not investment advice. Make your own decisions, educate youself.

Education - because a mind is a terrible thing to waste.....

airlift

04-26-2008, 10:31 AM

Thanks for posting the chart. Great tool!

James48843

04-28-2008, 09:30 PM

OK_ I'm going to go Waayyyy out on a limb here with tonight's theroy-

and remember, it's just a theroy, nothing more.

Today the S&P tried to break higher- but it ran out of steam in the last hour. It DID make it up enough to generate that expected new single "X" higher, as I said last Friday. I expected today would be just a tad higher, but then I said I thought the steam would run out, and we'd start to retrace a bit.

That's about what happened today. Morning started out pretty good, all day it struggled to tack on a few more points, and then, in the last hour, it petered out and couldn't hold the gain. (I bailed out friday into "G").

Here is how the chart actually looks right now:

3815

I've marked in two orange lines. The first shows the new green "X" that formed today, when we crossed that magical 1400 line earlier today.

Then I also penciled in where I expect it to go next--back down to fill in that missing 1364 number. I think we're out of steam on the upside. In fact, by all accounts, the down side could be back down around 1350. I know there is a lot of money on the sidelines, so I don't know if it will make it back down to 1350, but I am more convinced that we will see 1364 pretty soon.

I am not sure if we'll start downward tomorrow, or if things will perk higher for one more day. I am hoping for a nice dive tomorrow- so that I can buy back in at lower tomorrow, and be setting pretty invested for the start of the new month. Don't know for sure when the drop will come, but we should expect a nice wave down over the next couple of days.

Now, this is only perhaps a 60%-70% odds- at least that's what my gut it telling me today. I COULD be all wrong. I've been wrong before.

What is going to make the difference are two things-
1. What happens in the rest of the world overnight tonight- (remember, Japan is closed, I think for some kind of holiday), and
2. What the FED decides to do later this week.

The last time they met, we had a rate cut. And the markets loved it for an afternoon, and then pounded down lower the next day. I'm thinking the same things COULD happen here- we could get one day up with the fed, and then reality will set in, when people realize that the fed is only dropping rates because they are worried that the economy is softening.

And now we're worried about inflation. Gas prices zooming up. Food costing more. Inflation is working it's way through the economy, and soon the FED will be much more worried about inflation than in jump starting the econmy. So, if the FED annouces that they are done moving interest rates, then the whole shebang could go out of whack again, and we could have a tumble in the markets. We'll know more by the end of the week.

Anyway- this is where I stand tonight. I'm out, I'm waiting to see what will happen tomorrow, and hoping to be able to buy lower later this week.

We'll see if it works out that way.

Be careful out there. As always, this is not advice. YOU do what is best for YOU, making your own decisions- don't listen to me- I work for a living.

Some people are saying that it's coiled up ready to break much higher. Personally, I don't think so. At least not yet. I think we'll have another down wave before we break higher once again. This wave action- up and down, has been pretty consistant lately. My account it going to risk that we'll do it again.

Again, I could be wrong. You decide what you want to do. This is what I am going to do- I'm out, and going to patiently wait for an opportunity to jump back in lower that here.

Money COULD be better soon- what with the "stimulus" checks all floating out there soon. And I got my tax return back this past weekend. Maybe some others did too, and maybe that is what we saw earlier today. Who knows for sure?

IF it goes down tomorrow- watch for the 1370 mark for the "O"S to appear, and then perhaps the 1360 mark could get broken this week as well. We'll just have to wait and find out. I think we've seen the highs aobve 1400 for this wave- I don't think we'll cross 1410. It's possible, but highly unlikely in my book. I'd say perhaps a guess of 30% chance of crossing 1410, but a 60% chance or higher of moving down to below 1370 in the next couple -or three- days. We'll see.

Anyway-

Good luck- and be careful out there.

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN DECISIONS.

JTH

04-28-2008, 10:43 PM

Thanks James I enjoyed your analysis. I too have been patiently sitting back looking for a good opportunity to jump back in before the end of the month. I just hope I jump in low enough at the right time before everyone else does. :D

Guest2

04-29-2008, 05:39 AM

I still think your right about the retrace. How does 1330 strike you
as being a reasonable level of resistance based on the P&F Chart?
:worried:

James48843

04-29-2008, 07:21 PM

Amazing.

That held up today much better than I expected. Yes, we're off slightly from where we were a couple days ago, but I can honestly say I was expected it to be weaker than it has been.

We don't know where the Fed will come down tomorrow- The market is expecting another cut, and that seems to be priced in. If recent history is any example, that would mean a runup after the annoucement. But it's also worked out that those runnups lately have been followed within a few days with lower numbers.

AND- the big question of course is "Is that all there is..? "

If the fed decides that one more is enough, and says they are then neutral while waiting to see the results of their actions so far, then al bets are off, and we could take a tumble tomorrow.

We'll just have to wait and see.

I am still feeling we'll get 1350 to 1360 in the next few days. we'll have to wait and see.

As far as 1330?

I guess that's possible, but I am much more comfortable calling a 1360 ahead than a 1330 ahead. 1330 may be too much to ask for, especially after seeing how strong the last two days have been.

Sitting tight. Holding- and waiting for the right opportunity.

Guest2

04-29-2008, 07:28 PM

airlift

04-29-2008, 10:05 PM

On April 25, 2008, last Friday, the SPX 20 DMA was at around 1361 and today it's at around 1370-1371. I am trying to make sense out of this rising 20 DMA. Some TA analysts subscribe to the idea that rising moving averages serve as very good support areas. In particular, many traders, including some of us who are not traders, tend to wait an entry point at significant lows such as the 20 and 50 DMA. It is my understanding that many trading programs use these support levels, and thus it helps to become a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts to see the SPX for example make a bounce at these junctures. There are no guarantees of this happening again, but this is something to keep an eye on.

James48843

05-01-2008, 09:50 PM

Well, today really through me for a loop.

I was expecting a fall-off after yesterday's annoucement, and the pre-market news this morning that unemployment was up, a gallon of gas nationally was at an all-time high (at $3.72), and some soft earnings reports that came out this morning.

But the market completely blew that bad news off, and ran.

The only thing I can figure out is that people on the sidelines (remember, I mentioned the last few days that there seemed to be a lot of money ready to jump in, keeping it from dropping back down), decided to move in today.

I think the fed saying "that's all there will be for a while", and having two members of the fed vote against the rate cut, (last time there was just one), means that people are interpreting it to mean that the economy is not in such bad shape after all.

So they dove in today. By 11:00 a.m. this morning I decided with my own funds to jump back in, and placed my IFT for today- and went C/S/I split three ways.

We begin the month on a strong note. Of course, it could be that all of you who have been sidelined for the last month decided to buy back in, and those millions of dollars flowing in on the first of the month was just the 500 or so TSPTALKERS who were locked out. Could be YOU drove the rally today!

Anyway, here is the chart for today. A new high- showing with the number "5" rather than an "X" today, because today is the first day of the fifth month.

3822

I've penciled in the new "5", and then also penciled in the possible downside risk area of the 1360 level.

But my gut is telling me enough has changed that people want to get back in, and we'll have a nice run over the next month up to the 1500 area (1510 is showing as the price objective".) The heard is suddenly bullish with the Fed's annoucement that they don't think they need to cut any more. We'll see how that pans out.

So there you have it. You never know which way things will go.

I'm now "in to win." IFT'd in today.

Cross your fingers.

airlift

05-01-2008, 11:04 PM

Good luck!

catt1

05-01-2008, 11:12 PM

I have been reading your posts for months. The security software at work won't let me post. You IFT'd in and I IFT'd out today.
I like your idea of the market heading back down to the 1360 range. According to your P&F chart we have a nice trading channel going and I can't believe that we are ready to break out to far because there is still a lot of negative news out there. The job lay-offs are going to start showing up here soon.
BTW thanks for your posts and the P&F charts school I have learned a lot from you and the other members of this board.

luv2read

05-09-2008, 09:21 AM

1390 broken...new chart?

James48843

05-09-2008, 06:19 PM

Sorry LUV2READ- I've been off TDY this week, and didn't have a chance to post.

Anyway- here is today's chart.

I think we're in pretty good shape- I am thinking we should fill in that gap at 1364 early next week. But not much below that, UNLESS the price of gas really hits the economy hard in the next week or so. Those price shocks have been pretty tough on the markets-

Here is the chart-

3853

What the chart is telling me is at least two more, and likely three more, "O"s on the downside shortly.
So I have penciled in up to three more "O"s before a reversal again. Those are in orange above.

if we get the 1364 gap, that' two orange marks. Below 1360 would get us a third, and I think that's probably 50/50 we'll get there.

We COULD even get a fourth additional "O" on the downside here-- that would be below 1340, ---I made that one purple-- and even then we'd still keep our bullish spring back going. I think that's only a 30 to 40% possibility, but it COULD happen. We'd still be above that blue bullish support line. But I don't think we'll go taht low- although the price of gas could hammer us some more and we could get there.

We don't want to break below the bullish support line below us. If we break that, then all bets are off, and we're headed lower in a bear market again.

But if the 1364 gap DOES get filled in, then the chart will show a classic formation, ready to rebound higher again for another up cycle.

This last cycle stretched up higher than normal- so it goes to figure we'll retreat now at least half of that gain, and more likely 3/4s of it. But we still seem to be in a pretty good place overall for the future.

I'm saving a move this month, because I think we'll have another opportunity later to sell high again. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

too bad we don't have unlimited moves- because this would be a fairly good set to do it in. Unfortunately, we just have go with the flow, and find a good point to use up the move when we have a very high probability of success.

luv2read

05-09-2008, 06:24 PM

Thanks James!

I went to the P&F chart site and saw what was up, tried to post the new chart here but for some reason couldn't. I still have trouble posting pictures and graphs.

Thanks for the analysis. I took my F fund profit today, I'm happy! Now just waiting to put more into C/S/I.:)

airlift

05-10-2008, 03:24 PM

James,

Always a useful analysis. Thanks for the P&F chart.

James48843

05-13-2008, 05:51 AM

No change in the chart. I'm still thinking we'll get to the 1360-1365 range to fill in that gap, before heading north again for another wave.
I'm TDY all week, so I might not be able to check the charts for a while.
Good luck.

luv2read

05-13-2008, 01:02 PM

I just looked at a P&F Chart for DJW 4500 Complet, which is what our S Fund tracks. It just needs one more X to look like the $SPX P&F Chart. If I remember correctly, the C fund usually leads the way on upswings, the S & I follow. Once the S catches up, they all head back down. Looks like this is happening this week. C fund started back down Friday, is moving lateral now while S fund catches up. C fund not doing much today while S fund is taking off big time. We'll see if C heads down into that 1360 range this week after S gets that next X box.:rolleyes:

James or anyone, any thoughts on this?

James48843

05-14-2008, 05:09 PM

A powerful amount of money flowing in still, and pushing stock prices higher. Don't know where it's all coming from, but today we got an uptick reversal and new set of green "X's. I wasn't expecting that, and I am still amazed sometimes how much support there is in this market, even with all the gloom and doom about mortgage foreclosures, falling earnings, higher oil prices, etc.

3877
It just amazes me sometimes.

So what is going on? Is everybody putting stock purchases on their credit cards?

James48843

05-16-2008, 06:02 AM

No change in the chart today- we're showing those three postive "X"s, and a lot of white space surrounding it. Tht white space below and to the right of our current three "X" move here looks bare to me. Bare, or "BEAR". I don't really understand why this segment has appeared the way that it is, and it makes me a bit nervous:

3888

We've had a nice run up already this month, and we've recouped much of this year's earlier losses. But now we're banging right up against that 200 day moving average, the price of oil is seriously goingn to affect all segments of our economy, (gasoline up 30% in 90 days!) and I don't understand what the driver is that brought us here in stocks so quickly. Those are all signs that we have to be REALLY ready to bail at a moment's notice.

Unfortunately, with limits now, we have to save those moves for when they are really important. I have moved once this month, and have a second ready to go should it be needed. But I really had hoped to stay in stocks for the rest of the month, so I could try and catch some safety of "G" next month, and then be ready to jump back in at a lower level. So far, we've not seen a real downturn yet this month. I can't imagine it going on for much longer.

But I am in, and hanging on.

Anyway- let's see what today brings.

I am STILL thinking we head back down to fill that gap at 1364 before the month is over. Only time will tell if that in fact does take place.

Be careful out there.

Guest2

05-16-2008, 08:16 AM

James, could it possibly mean a new level of an upward trend ? :embarrest:

luv2read

05-19-2008, 10:46 AM

triple top breakout 5/19. New box.:)

James48843

05-19-2008, 11:13 AM

All I can say is "Wow". We're still building higher. I don't know what the driver is on this, but I'm in, so I will happily take it.

3899

I've penciled in a purple line to show the direction we're headed. The top of this seems to be the 1510 level as the "price objective" on this wave. I didn't expect it to be reaching there now, but we are well on the way.

I am beginning to think, now that we've broken over the 200 day moving average, that this is NOT a bear market, but rather just a consolidation, and that we're past the worst of it.

Of course, the first time I say something like that, is the time that everything tanks. So I will remain reserved, ready to bail out at the first sign of difficulty, but will hold on for the wild ride each day as we move forward.

A little tidbit to leave you with- The last couple of times we've had five months in a row lower, that was broken by several months of strongly higher afterwards. We got five months lower between October and March. Now we're looking at a nice rise for May, and we had a great April. So perhaps we're going to see good months this month and next. Who knows.

I'm in...to win.

Good luck.

luv2read

05-19-2008, 02:13 PM

broke 1440. Add another box.;)

James48843

05-19-2008, 05:41 PM

...Of course, the first time I say something like that, is the time that everything tanks.

Yep.

I jinxed it.

Dang! I HATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS.

luv2read

05-19-2008, 08:56 PM

Yep.

I jinxed it.

Dang! I HATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS.
Dang! James, almost got 2 boxes down today too!:laugh:

luv2read

05-20-2008, 02:11 PM

3 0's.....:rolleyes:

where will it go?

luv2read

05-21-2008, 01:42 PM

4 0's. Filling in the gap?:blink:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$spx,pltad[pa][da][f!3!!]&pnf=y

luv2read

05-21-2008, 02:56 PM

5 of em. 1360 next?:blink:

James48843

05-21-2008, 08:15 PM

remember this number: 1364.

There is a gap to be filled at 1364. At the rate we're headed, that is still above the bullish support line. If it breaks below that line, then we're in trouble. If it stays about that line, we're ok.

the magic number is 1362 to 1364.

luv2read

05-21-2008, 08:23 PM

I agree James. Did you see this post?

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=165239&postcount=24

luv2read

05-23-2008, 09:35 AM

1380 broken. Bullish signal reversed. Closing the gap down to 1360?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$spx,pltad[pa][da][f!3!!]&pnf=y

James48843

05-24-2008, 11:36 AM

Dang.

Price objective reversed, and now it's showing a downturn to 1310 .

I'm most likely going to go to G on monday.

Missed it. (the peak).

Bummer.

And can't get back into stocks until next month, if I pull the trigger on Monday.

Thank goodness it's close to the end of the month.

Silverbird

05-27-2008, 02:06 PM

Still hasn't broken 1370. More or less appears to have re-gained Friday losses. May follow the usual of late upday/downday pattern; tommorow should be interesting. :blink:

Viva_La_Migra

06-04-2008, 08:20 PM

Haven't seen a new chart in about a week now. Where is the market at right now and where do we think it is going to go? Are we still waiting for the chart to get to 1364 before moving back in? My trigger finger is getting itchy and I got both barrels loaded!:nuts::nuts:

James48843

06-05-2008, 11:12 PM

Sorry- been very, very busy at work lately.

Here is the chart for today.

4009

Personally, I'm in, because I wanted to save my moves due to only being able to do one per month. What I am looking for now is a peak up in the 1440-1450 range, so that I can bail out, hope it drops 30 points or so back into the 1405 range, and then go back in again if conditions are right. That's a tall order, but that's what I am indicating on this P&F chart, with the little purple dots. That's where it COULD be going over the next week or so.

There were a couple of opportunities last month near the end of the month where I WOULD have bailed, if I knew I could get back in. Since I knew if I bailed last month I COULDN'T get back in until after June 1, I waited. And held my move to position myself to get ready for this month. One out and one back in per month is killing me.

We didnt' hit the 1364 I was looking for. We only made it to 1370 on that last cycle.

But that MAY be the fill in of the gap we were missing, but ONLY if this market is a lot stronger than I gave it credit for last month. Again, with all the economic news being rather bad, I still can't figure out where the money is coming from that keeps pounding back in. It just doesn't make sense to me. But yes, I have to admit it's happening.

So, at the moment, I'm in.

If we are truely going back up on this ride, then we have a strong up move ahead shortly, then the next pull back won't come until the 1440-1450 range or higher.

On the other hand, this COULD be a fakeout.

Reminder: During times of bear markets one has to be extremely careful not to get caught on the wrong side.

So there you have it. I'm in, waiting for the right moment to take a high risk venture and try to capture 20 to 30 points on a down cycle after the next peak.

What you choose to do is soley up to you.

(A favorite line from a movie is appropriate here:

(I know what you're thinking-
Was that five O's down, or was it six?

Do you feel lucky?

Well, do you?)

This is a gamble. that's all.

Guest2

06-06-2008, 02:30 AM

"One out and one back in per month is killing me."

James, as always, thank you for finding the time to share your P&F expertise. We listen closely to what you have to say and appreciate
your every thought!

Please forgive me for possibly misunderstanding, but I have to say this.
The above quote would lead a person to believe that you only have two
moves available. (one in,,,,one out) I'm sure you know that you have
more then just two moves available to you. Is that your goal for each
month? To move into a Fund,,,hit your goal,,,then move back to the (G)
while only using just two move?
:confused:

James48843

06-06-2008, 06:11 AM

I'm sure you know that you have
more then just two moves available to you. Is that your goal for each
month? To move into a Fund,,,hit your goal,,,then move back to the (G)
while only using just two move?
:confused:

Yes, yes. I am aware of "The move to "G"" possibiltiy. But that is NOT my goal. My goal is to stay invested when I can, and then look for the opportunities to get OUT, when I think the market is about to go DOWN, and then get back in at a cheaper price.

Clip an extra 1% here, clip an extra 1% there, and pretty soon we're talking about real money. Not big clips, but little ones.

But I don't like what they did to be able to go to "G".

If you ask my opinion, that is the WORST possible thing that the TSP board did. It will result in huge losses for thousands of TSP share holders.

Why?

Because the one thing that people will do when they panic, is move to "G".

And then, by not being able to move into stocks, they will lock in those huge losses.

Look at January. the biggest volume day for the month was January 22nd, when the market tanked. And literally thousands of people moved to "G".

But if you had to wait until February 1st to move BACK into stocks, then you would be more than 4 % below others who were able to move back in the next day.

No, the "G" thing is HORRIBLE for people. The worst thing they could have done.

Now, that said, my technique for ME, is to watch for over value, then get out, then let it fall, then get back in.

I am not wise enough to maintain most of my time in G, and then try to take a stab at moving IN to catch an upside, and then get back out again.

My focus instead, and my technique that I have been trying to follow, is exactly the opposite- it's to stay IN as long as I can, and then only get out when I see a high probability to preserve money in a short period of a down turn. I can't guess when stocks are going to go up, but I have a higher chance of guessing right when stocks are going to go down.

So that is why I am focused on the two-move limit. One out to "G", and then one back in to stocks.

Yes, there is a third move possible, to "G", but you would have to convince me that we're going to have continued decline all the way to the end of the month, before I would pull that trigger. And right now I don't see that.

Hope that helps put things in perspective.

mamikin

06-06-2008, 09:15 AM

Thank you, James, for reappearing and providing your insight. I know, I know, you make it quite clear that this is only your opinion and that we should make our own decisions, which most of us do anyway. But several of us do look to you and others for insight - can you blame us? I think it was Georgia Gal who asked "Where are James and Griffin? I can't do this on my own!"

Guest2

06-06-2008, 10:42 AM

Thank You for having the patience in dealing with my confussion
and giving such a detailed explanation for all to see & understand.
:)

Silverbird

06-06-2008, 01:27 PM

Arrgh, it went below 1370....:sick:

luv2read

06-06-2008, 01:49 PM

Arrgh, it went below 1370....:sick:another box. 1364-1368 is support...

Birchtree

06-06-2008, 02:12 PM

A heart beater has to love this volatility - it makes you feel alive. I don't get depressed but I do like my adrenaline.

James48843

06-06-2008, 02:40 PM

Arrgh, it went below 1370....:sick:

That's ok. It still needs to get to 1362-1364 to fill in a gap that is still needing to be filled. Perhaps tomorrow will be that chance. If so, this COULD be an excellent buying opportunity for those who are out now.

But then again, maybe not, because the P&F chart is saying we're to expect 1310 before we hit bottom. I'm happy where I am- I still have a LONG way to go before I can retire.

The chart is now at 1368, and there is a new value for the "Bearish price objective" on the downside showing at 1290. That tells me a high possiblity of 1290 to 1300 range is ahead, IF, and ONLY IF, we break below the blue suport line right below where we are now.

If that happens- if the blue line below is crossed, then we head down big to 1290's range.

I'll be watching closely.

4014

If it DOESN't break below that blue line right beneath us, then we rebound strongly back up to the 1440's range.

P.S.- THIS, my friends, is what it is all about. Volitility.
It's like waterskiiing barefoot. It can be exciting, and it can be extremely painful. Or not.

Don't you just love the excitement?

We just have to wait and see what happens.

James48843

06-06-2008, 02:45 PM

A heart beater has to love this volatility - it makes you feel alive. I don't get depressed but I do like my adrenaline.

I could not agree more with you birch. I love this stuff this way.

4015

luv2read

06-06-2008, 04:39 PM

Broke through...another box at 1360. Down she goes...at least next week. OPEX and earnings is the following week. This is a setup....just like March:p

hessian

06-07-2008, 01:26 PM

Broke through...another box at 1360. Down she goes...at least next week. OPEX and earnings is the following week. This is a setup....just like March:p
Yes, James,
The intraday low did punch below 1360 (low hit 1359.90) - why didn't that show the blue support line broke?
I didn't think it is just the closing price, rather that an intraday break would take out the blue support line, that it should now be shown as 1360 was busted?? - and therefore, the overhead red downtrend line should have formed, and now be shown??
Thanks for the lessons -VR!!
4019

James48843

06-08-2008, 12:01 AM

Yes, James,
The intraday low did punch below 1360 (low hit 1359.90) - why didn't that show the blue support line broke?
4019

I think that the 1359.60 is why that last "O" formed at the bottom of the stack. And I think that for the blue line to be broken, it will take below 1350 to punch through on the downside.

My prediction is that we'll head back upward from here.

But, of course, I COULD be wrong.

We'll just have to wait and see what Monday brings.

If it punches downward, then I am considering bailing out. Otherwise, I'm staying in for the coming cycle upward.

James48843

06-09-2008, 01:37 PM

Things are looking ugly.

I didn't bail out today, although I probably should have. Was busy and didn't look at the chart until this afternoon.

The chart now is showing a "Bearish price objective" at the 1270 level. that's down 20 points more than it was last week. And I am beginning to believe that we'll head much closer to that.

That- the fact that I'm more pessimistic, is a good sign, as it means that I may bail out any time now. And if I bail out, then you'll probably do better than me by doing the opposite of what I do. :-)

If your still on the sidelines and waiting to find a good spot to jump in- well, I don't think we're done on the downside yet.

Could be a bloody week.

We haven't crossed the blue line underneath just yet, but we are darn close. And if it does go, then it's a long way down to the next resistance point.

Just my 2 cents.

luv2read

06-09-2008, 01:53 PM

sell in May and go away didn't happen...maybe this is sell in June then shoot the moon...;)

Anyway, IMO this is the same kind of setup (lows) we saw in March before OPEX week. I hope it turns out the same. Maybe we are just testing those lows.

James48843

06-11-2008, 09:50 AM

The floor did not hold. And it's down again today.

I'm moving out today.

The signal was back on May 23rd. I should have listened to it. But now we're breaking the blue support line, and about to turn even uglier.

Bottom price objective is revised even lower today. Now showing 1250 area is expected bottom. Bad. The P&F chart is predicting we reach down to the previous low. That hurts.

4041

I'm out- cob today.

luv2read

06-11-2008, 03:01 PM

4050

EWWWWWWWWWWWW.:eek:

Silverbird

06-11-2008, 03:32 PM

You've gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run....

James48843

06-15-2008, 07:52 PM

So now I'm TDY, and won't be able to post or make decisions tomorrow- will be at 35 thousand feet at cutoff time...

Drats.

You know, sometimes you eat the bear,
and sometimes the bear eats you.

luv2read

06-16-2008, 12:01 AM

So now I'm TDY, and won't be able to post or make decisions tomorrow- will be at 35 thousand feet at cutoff time...

Drats.

You know, sometimes you eat the bear,
and sometimes the bear eats you.
I fund all the way....do it tonight.

airlift

06-16-2008, 03:40 AM

L2R,
In your opinion, will the U.S. stock funds make money too, or is this comment applicable only to the I fund? Tia.

I fund all the way....do it tonight.

luv2read

06-16-2008, 09:37 AM

L2R,
In your opinion, will the U.S. stock funds make money too, or is this comment applicable only to the I fund? Tia.
This week is quad witching, OPEX. I think USM and OSM will be up if it follows the pattern of the last one which was the same type of setup. Still a bear market, so take your profits quick and don't be greedy. I set stops and stick with them.

James48843

06-19-2008, 02:24 AM

It's ugly in Asia tonight. Japan is down 2% as I write this, and Shanghei is now down 5.63%. In another thread here in techincal analysis we're talking about a Hindenberg Omen reappearing twice- a VERY bad sign historically.

And the P&F chart has had it's downward price objective slip a little bit more, now showing only 1230 as the floor here.

Here is today's chart:

4092

First, the bearish resistance line has appeared- bloody red. No relief in site any time soon. The downward price objective has been reset to 1230. It was at 1290 when we got the sell signal back on May 23rd, and it slipped to 1270, 1250, and now 1230. That 1230 is so far down it's now off the chart. Ouch. Bad news- I don't think Ive' seen three resets on the downside like that before. SO I think we're going down, big time now.

I'm sitting at this moment 50% in G and 50% in F. The G for safety, and the F to perk and try and make up some of those losses. I missed the sell signal on May 23rd and hung on too long- but at least I'm still ahead of the start of the year, not bad considering I've been invested in the market for far more days this year than out of the market. Just got to cross fingers and look for a good reentry point. At this point though, I don't see it anywhere in sight.

Whitewater rafting ahead.

luv2read

06-20-2008, 09:17 AM

danger Will Robinson! Danger! Danger!!

4102

Guest2

06-20-2008, 11:20 AM

Are we talking 1230 or what,,,,,ouch ! :blink:

luv2read

06-20-2008, 11:21 AM

look at the revised off-the-chart number....1210. Got diving gear?;)

Guest2

06-20-2008, 11:50 AM

I'm certified to use an SCBA. (Landlover)
I'll leave the SCUBA gear alone. At least until
the great flood. (of people back into the G).

luv2read

06-20-2008, 01:10 PM

I don't think SCUBA will be adequate. Better get one of those old-fashioned diving suits with helmets. Bearish price objective is now.....1190!!!!!

So much for sell in May and go away...looks like buy in June....and shoot the moon

4104

Silverbird

06-20-2008, 01:25 PM

Right now it's sell in May and wait for the day. :notrust:

James48843

06-20-2008, 01:36 PM

I'm TDY so I am only able to peek in to TSP talk a little- but it is clear to me that we're going to take a nice chunk out here, and go lower.

There is a resistance point around 1260 to 1270 that may hold. Or maybe not. If it doesn't, then we're next down around the low 12's.

This reminds me of a June descent back --when was it- in 2000 or so?

- I'll have to go look at the charts and see exactly what year that was, but there was a heck of nice pullback in June that year. I remember because I was stuck at a National Guard summer AT, was locked into C, and was nailed big time. This time at least I am in G right now, watching it fall. Nice.

Now the big task is figuring out when to jump back in. At 1270? Or wait?

Down she goes.......

James48843

06-22-2008, 12:13 AM

One note:

We've lost 5.71% on the C fund this month- that is abnormal even for a bear market. Look for a day or two more of downside, and look for a place to get back in, because the last few days of the month we are bound to get some kind of a bounce back up, even if the whole trend is downward.

This looks very much like the year 2002. That year, the C fund ended up losing over 22% for the year. This year is shaping up much like that one did...

http://tsp.gov/rates/history_2002.html

4115

What do you think- is this a repeat?

tsptalk

06-22-2008, 12:52 AM

The scary part is, 2002 was the 3rd year of that bear market. Things look bad now but people are still calling for a bottom here. That probably means we have more downside to go. We need to see a puke bottom like June/July/September of 2002.

Interestly enough, the AAII bearish percentages hit higher levels this year than they did in 2002. Go figure.

But yes, we can pick our spots to make some money in the bear market rallies, but this leg down will likely take out the March lows first.

James48843

06-24-2008, 06:40 AM

No change in the P&F chart.

Looks very, very negative for the next couple days. Yesterday I kind of expected a little bounce back. It didn't happen. That means no support or moneyflow back into stocks. Which means today is not going to be pretty. And maybe tomorrow as well.

Still showing 1190 as the downside price objective. I wouldn't even think about buying back in for a while. While I don't think it will hit 1190 (I think we'll get resistance at 1270, and again at 1230 levels), I DO think we'll get a lot closer to 1190 than where we are now.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$SPX,PLTCDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!4!20]&pnf=y

Not a pretty chart.

I am thinking 1270 before we get a little rebound, and then it will only come back half the distance before heading south again.

I'm looking for a 1270-ish entry point to get back in for a quick ride up to 1340, then back out again as it continues to fall back down.

Not a good place to be.