Market Talk

[Spaf]

In mid to late September the market had a upward stall at the S&P 1131, and started another cycle down. However, that cycle was interrupted at 1102 on Seprember 28th. A new upward trend developed going into the Q4, and currently 1131.

Q4 and January are generally good months. Factors that could hinder market growth now come from earnings, employment, and oil. The big picture of 2004 places the market in bearish cycles. Will Q4 be a break out? Possible, if the factors mentioned stay in check. We have a delicate favorable trend of gains that needs to be watched with caution. If factors stay controlled, market sentiment would improve. We will just have to wait and see.

For the S-fund (^DWCP) the 20 day moving average and the parabolic SAR (for now) are under the price, (indicating to go long). Historical seasonality charts (Q4+Jan.) look good.

Stats + sentiment = favorable.Pending reports + oil = caution.

Currently 70%S, and 30%I (fingers crossed).

Have a great day. :^But, be careful! Rgds

[TheProphet]

Spaf,

According to the stocktraders almanac there are

six good months and six bad months...

Year trend... Nov 1 thru May 1 is bullish

and May 1 thru Nov 1 is bearish...

They also adjust them with the MACD indicator...

so I agree with you... we are moving into the best six

months of the year... I am planning to profit from it...

:^

[Spaf]

Ikatteng Hi!

We could use a good 6 months. Pls feel free to share tidbits from your almanac. I like almanacs!
FYI I have attached a yahoo chart of the S&P for 12 months. Noting that if you/we/? held stock, the first of the year equals about where we are today (the red line). We have gone through 3 up and down cycles (green V's). If you sold high and bought low there was some gains to be made.
Here's hoping that the cycles are ending, your almanac, and the other seasonality factors take over market sentiment, and someone keeps a lid on oil.

[Mike]

S&P has broken through the 1130 level. This is very good news. :^

[cowboy]

Cowboy looks at market, feels good with the way things are going. Will go 100% I effective Tuesday and will get out of the F fund. My gut feeling is I is lagging on the bounce and maybe go higher on Tuesday, of course I have been wrong before. Markets are all on a rise and hitting newlevels very good sign!I will see if my gun barrel is bentin the next couple days my F fund move didn't work and I blaimedit onmy aim!

[TheProphet]

Spaf,

Send me your email and I will sent you copy of the monthly news letter I received from the stocktraders almanac...

My email is: Leon.Kattengell@us.army.mil (mailto:Leon.Kattengell@us.army.mil) my home email is ekattengell@msn.com (mailto:ekattengell@msn.com)

Leon

[Spaf]

LK
Thanks, home e-mail: marq457@mail.com (mailto:marq457@mail.com) also listed on this site in Members.

[TheProphet]

Spaf, We may be moving into the DomeHouse... Leon

[nnuut]

What about the Jobs Report friday? Anyone have any ideas as to what the results will be? could be a great chance to "get out":l or "get in",:u it's one on me. Hate to miss a Opportunityand get burned.:@

[tsptalk]

nnuut wrote:
What about the Jobs Report friday? Anyone have any ideas as to what the results will be? could be a great chance to "get out":l or "get in",:u it's one on me. Hate to miss a Opportunityand get burned.:@
The rumor I am hearing is 75,000 over the 175,000 estimate and upward revisions for prior months. If this is true, I hope it's not too high to create interest rate hike fears again.

[nnuut]

I'm back in "G" Tuesday, Pluck, Pluck the NNUUT is chicken. Don't want my feathers burned:oo. Think there might be a pull back.Thinking aboutgetting back in Friday if I hear some more good news, but not too goooood! Decisions, decisions.:%

[Spaf]

Well!

Nnuut you could be right. For now I'll cautiously stay in stocks, there could be apull back or profit taking (a fact of the market). But, the market has shot up a bit. The stats, the moving averages and indicators are good. Sentiment is the caution. Oil will continue to be a driver, earnings will be a driver, and so will economics. We are not out of the woods. I don't like bailing out of the plane just yet, the upturn has given us some altitude! There will be some down days, but the up days so far look pretty good, we have broken through some resistance, hopefully. Just when I say something like this, I wind up eating my words, well I've got my fingers crossed!


LK thanks for the AI Newsletter! Really neat! Your newsletter calendar did have a caution, I think would or could be a tidbit warning to all superstitious investors: Mark your calendar October 19, 1987 CRASH Dow down 22.6%. :end:... Hows that for a tidbit?

[nnuut]

Guess it's not such a good idea to try and get so cute with the market going on an upward trend, but don't want to lose these gains.:? July really hurt me bad, just trying to get up to the level I was at in January! Bad to be in a hole because of a few bad decisions!:*I fell into the same trap that Tom fell into.:@Come on GREEN>

[TheProphet]

Great ! I will be on 100% on S till Friday I will be100 %G Monday and Tuesday and be back 100% on S Wed... I do not think the interest rate will go up because is to close to election... It may right after... but not before... :^

[nnuut]

Hey Ikatteng !! That was my plan--------------> if things don't change. :XHopeCrude drops a little friday morning. :l$$$$$$$$ Let it be GREEN!

[Dakota]

hey, let me know!! My e-mail is tdm432@msn.com

[Dakota]

this thing is killijng me:*

[cowboy]

Dakota wrote:
this thing is killijng me:*


LOL!:DBy the way Dakota I live in the warmer part of the Sioux handle you use!

[Spaf]

October 5, 2004

Item 1. I needed a faster response for TSP daily returns, TSPMoney has this, but slow: 8-9 PM sometimes. Cowboy showed me a page at TSP.gov (Rtns and share prices/share prices) that post the returns more promptly! FYI.

Item 2. When Intnl mkts do good and US mkts fizzle. The returns can somewhat be equalized (as today). Thus if 100%S is felt to be too risky, and the $ is low, mix the funds ie x%S and x%I.

Item 3. Today the Dow skids in oil, just reinforces that oil and stocks don't mix. Keep wondering when they will get the rigs in the gulf back in production?

Bee careful out there!

[Mike]

Spaf, I heard that they expect to get it back up to full production in the gulf by the end of the month.

My I fund holdings basically nullified the S fund loss today. That's why they say to diversify. :)

Does anyone else get the feeling that oil is the new "tech bubble"? The prices are continuing to move up on speculation alone. Every story I've read indicates that traders fear a supply disruption. However, if the price was following actual supply and demand, it would be considerably lower than this. I don't know when or where oil will top out, but I expect a major correction at some point - back to $35 / barrel.

[nnuut]

I think it will continue this basic upward trend until the oil companys get their fill $. :UMost of the problems with oilappears to bespeculative, but the price continues to go up even if the supply is ample.Reminds me of weather forcasting. If a frog farts in Chile it changes the weather patterns. You think that Gas is high in the US, buy a literin Europe. Someone is making big bucks and it's not us.:*Yes it will go down, when, I have no idea. :%

[Spaf]

A check of market sentiment for today indicated a concern for profit warnings. A lot of the comments were somewhat negative. This generally gave a unsettled attitude. I think Tom was right, the market is resting.

Oil is going to be a problem until the supply and demand has a cushion. There is a greed factor involved, which doesn't help us. It was kind of neat the way the S&I funds offset each other yesterday so you didn't take a smack on US funds.

My stats (MA+P-SAR) indicate to stay the course in S&I, for now.I just wish the sentiment was better!

[nnuut]

I've been looking for indicators of what might happen with the Jobs Report or oil on Friday:

:^+ Treasurys prices fell for a second straight day Wednesday, amid ongoing concerns that Friday's payrolls report may illustrate a strengthening economy in September.

:%+/- Investors looking to Friday's employment report as a catalyst for a fresh move to the upside.

:i+ The market is trying to disconnect itself from the daily price movements of oil," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst at S.W. Bach.

:oo+/_ "It is trying to focus on a new catalyst and that new catalyst could be stronger economic activity and that couldshow up in this week's employment numbers," he said.

:^? TOM,The rumor I am hearing is 75,000 over the 175,000 estimate and upward revisions for prior months. If this is true, I hope it's not too high to create interest rate hike fears again.:h

:end:Oil ?? Who knows? It doesn't seem to hold the same price range for long and the Market seems to not pay to much attention lately.

Looking more and more like Friday is my day to get in. I'm no expert so use your own discretion. It's a definitemabye that stocks will go GREEN? :*What? Thank You?

[Spaf]

Right on nnuut! It's a absolute possibility!

[ou81200]

Hello Guys---

So far this week, inspite of the news, the market has been holding its own. All we need is a catylyst to get another run. I hope it is this Friday.:)

[TheProphet]

We are in the same boat... S will perform better that C this week according with the seasonality charts S&P versus Nasdaq... GREEN this week... Good Luck on your investments... :^

[ou81200]

The Dow took off the last hour today. Seemed to me like alot of investors covering their short positions. Any input???

[Mike]

What does the Nasdaq have to do with S or C? C is the S&P. S is a small cap index fund (not the Nasdaq).

Today, the C fund was up 0.09, S was up 0.10, and I was flat.

Oil settled above $52 today on ... fear. Again. The US gov't is now saying that gulf of mexico oil production won't be fully restored for another 45-90 days. :?

... and the market went up anyway. :^

[tsptalk]

ou81200 wrote:
The Dow took off the last hour today. Seemed to me like alot of investors covering their short positions. Any input???
Yeah. Everytime the bears think the market is ready to turn over, the market moves up again and the short covering rally exaggerates it. It's the trap I keep saying the bears are getting caught in. Since sentiment has been so low lately, this type of thing can continue for a while. It's also why I keep recommending buying any pullbacks.They should be pretty tame.

[tsptalk]

Mike wrote:
What does the Nasdaq have to do with S or C? C is the S&P. S is a small cap index fund (not the Nasdaq).

The Nasdaq the stocks of smaller companies than the big S&P indices but it also has large tech stocks. The correlation between S and the Nasdaq isn't great because of those big techs whose movement has a bigeffect on that index.

[cowboy]

Tom can you tell me what the Bulls to Bear ratio is this week. I'm 100% I hoing it shoots for the moon tomorrow!:^

[debrac]

what does bulls vs bears mean to a novice/? can you break it down in simple terms pls

[tsptalk]

cowboy wrote:
Tom can you tell me what the Bulls to Bear ratio is this week. I'm 100% I hoing it shoots for the moon tomorrow!:^
That comes out on Thursdays. I'll try to post it tomorrow if it's available early enough.

Debrac wrote:

what does bulls vs bears mean to a novice/? can you break it down in simple terms pls

Debrac -
bulls vs. bears compareshow many people say they are bullish (think the market is going to go higher) vs. how many people are say they are bearish (think the market is going to go lower).

This is a sentiment indicatorthat tells us theattitudes of investors. It is a contrarian indicator in that the more people that think the market will go up (bulls), the more likely it is to go down. The more thatpeople think it is going to go down (bears) the more likely the market will go up. The closer the bearish percentage is to 40% the better for the market.

I'll explain why this is so in another post :). Just know that it is a strong indicator. One caveat is that what investors say in these polls may not be what they are doing. So there is another indicator that tracks what these investors are doing (i.e. buying or selling). It is better to act on what they are doing rather than what they are saying.

I'll go further for those of you now saying, but if the market goes up, doesn't that mean there are more people buying than selling (and viceversa). It's usually not the case. When someone buys a stock, someone else is selling it. Where they meetis the agreed upon price. If you have one savvy investor with big bucks buying 100,000 shares of XYZ for $25 each and 100 smaller investors selling 1000 shares at $25. Mr big bucks is out numbered 100-1 butMr big bucks is probably making the best deal as he is dealing with 100 emotional investors bailing out - probably near the bottom.

Hope that helps.
Tom

[Spaf]

Mike wrote:
My I fund holdings basically nullified the S fund loss today. That's why they say to diversify. :)

Mike posted this on October 6, 2004, and he is basically right. When US mkts drop and Euro markets rise, they can off set. My approach is when there is an upturn in the market, is to diversify between S & I, and Tom is right to use the I fund when the dollar is low. The problem is to understand the big picture of stats. We are in a bearish trending market with cycles and cautious sentiment. The cycles have varied from forty or more days, thus suggecting a moving average (MA) of 20 days or so. As of September the TSP funds indicate: C=1.11, S=3.92, I=2.05. In the last 15 days: C=1.76, S=3.66. I=2.47. If 3.66+2.47=6.13 then x=3.16x100/6.13=52. Thus investment betwenS&I should be 52%S, 48%I. However, 30% I fund is the maximum for me due to other countries risk/money, and my own feelings.

We need to develope our own strategy, personally! We are all in different positions, all novices, and all in ado-it-yourself savingsplan that is really not a plan! At least I haven't seen "the plan". There are no goverenment "guru's" telling us how to invest, consider the liability, if there was one!

My talk on this web site is only my opinion, based on my stats and my feeling of mkt sentiment, not advice! TSP members are responsible for their own accounts in investing. As they say we don't have crystal ball. But, we do have this site to talk about it, and learn!

Have a good day, and be careful out there! :)

[Mike]

... and one day later, the C and S gains offset the flat I fund that did nothing. :P

... all of this with oil around $52.

[TheProphet]

Tom,

Would you please educate me more... are you refering to cover calls and cover puts ?Would you please explain how does it really works... Thanks you...

Leon

[TheProphet]

I think the I fund is in a bubble that sooner or later will burst... the dollar will not go low forever... they do not going to be giving free dollars on the strees of europe anymore... specially they not being our good friends anymore... Iprefer S fund it will give me more peace of mind... :zz

[TheProphet]

The market has become aligned and paralleled to the oil price... the higher the oil the higher the market... inflation raise the S&P... companies value goes up... kind of contrary of what we are just to... or had seem lately... high oil... low market... :*

[Dakota]

Thanks cowboy, Im just an okie waiting to see :!if the sooners or the pokes can go. I like watching your comments( all ya'll) as we cowboys say. thanks

[cowboy]

I a m transfering my 100% to S today as I think the S will rebound tomorrow. If not then the funds may sell off.:cool:

[tsptalk]

cowboy wrote:
Tom can you tell me what the Bulls to Bear ratio is this week. I'm 100% I hoing it shoots for the moon tomorrow!:^
Sorry I am getting back to you so late cowboy. I usually don't have access to the site during the day.

Bad news on the sentiment front. I will write about it in tonight's comments but the bullish percentage is up to 57% and the bears 20%. That is not good. I'm sure Thursday's drop changed that a some but 20% bears may take a little damage to fix.

If we knew that Wednesday maybe we could have lightened up. Now the S&P has pulled back to support (I hope) so I won't make a move just yet.

[tsptalk]

lkatteng wrote:
Tom,

Would you please educate me more... are you refering to cover calls and cover puts ?Would you please explain how does it really works... Thanks you...

Leon

Leon -
You might have to remind me of what I said. :? Bulls/bears talk or was it about options?

Soryy,
Tom

[ou81200]

One word for todays market. OUCH!!!

[Spaf]

Thursday was about a three day set back, a hefty drop, that was not expected. Jitters ahead of tomorrow's September employment report spooked the
market, plus a record close for oil with low inventories, and sluggish
retail sales (with higher energy costs) also weighed in on the decline. I hope the engine restarts.

[tsptalk]

ou81200 wrote:
One word for todays market. OUCH!!!
The only good news is that it stopped at the support level (1130). We need to rally Friday or that theory will be down the drain.

[Spaf]

That was a long red candlestick Thursday.......Wow!
Don't worry. Pres. Bush has a fix in to lower the price of oil! He is pushing to use smaller barrels!
Well, tomorrow is the October 8th and as cowboy has said a "definite maybe"!

[Mike]

With oil crossing $52, and with a jobs report looming, I'd say yesterday is precisely what is supposed to happen in an overbought market. That should scare some of those bulls back into bear mode, which is good.

Here's to a positive report and green across the board! :^

[tsptalk]

The news followed the market. Jobs report disappoints w/ jobs 96,000 added. So much for the rumors of 250,000.

[tsptalk]

I am stumped. The bad jobs report was initially greeted by the emotional "dumb" money withselling but the Dow isnow green. There are reasons for me to bail here and reasons to stick with the plan and stay invested. It's hard to make a call.

With jobs down, interest rate fears are waning and that should help smaller stocks. The dollar is also way down this morning on the news which at least temporarily helps the I fund.

No moves just yet. Stay posted.

Thanks,
Tom

[Mike]

Ugh. This could prompt the market to resume its cycling.

I'll wait a few days and watch things closely - it might be wise to bail out at some point here and wait 'til the seemingly inevitable post-election take-off. :?

[Dakota]

I believe next week is comeback week. I'm a little disapointed in thurs and things dont look so well today 25g 25c 25s 25i

Good luck all ya'll:#

[Spaf]

Yesterday the market closed at 1131 (S&P). My bear-bull indicator places us in marginal territory 1080 . . ..^. . .1160.
We have been in the woods since Feburary. Late Sept, early Oct looked like the market might break thebearish cyclic trends. It seems to want too, but the economic conditions keep holding it down (oil, jobs, earnings, weather, etc). This 6 month period could be the best time for the market and TSP. But for now,we sit in a state of somewhat uncertainty.

[Spaf]

Afternoon market reports will deteriorate to far. Prices will go under the moving average (20 days) and the Parabolic SAR sould signal a stop level above the current price.

Will be transfering to the G fund 100%

TSP operations will be down monday. Unsure when the transfer will take effect.

Market weather is too bad for flying at this time. Will wait for better days!

[ou81200]

Thing is---

With my luck, as soon as I bail out, the market will recover. After two down days, there has to be some correction. I may move out of the I fund, but will definately stay in stocks.:^

[nnuut]

Well, Well, Well See what happens when you plan, get expert advise, and are pretty well sure your gonna make a little money. Based on every thing I read the Jobs report was estimated to be 150,000 or greater. So I'm in on Friday-- Bam, Bam that hurt! :*Gotta do better than this! Still in stocks, maybe it will jump Monday, but I don't think so?:@It's good when it's good!:U

[Spaf]

Could it be that on Thursday the market knew that the job report pending on Friday was going to be very low (96K), while others were saying jobs were going to be on track (133K)? Kind of like what Tom says, the market preceeded the news! Oil at record height of 53.31. Kind of like having your pocket picked!

Well I'm back at (at, not, in) the G fund. However, TSP is closed Monday. I'll be in stocks like it or not. The transfer will take place COB Tuesday,so if things look green I can cancell. I cancelled once before, when I shouldnt have done it, didn't want to believe the system, had a gut feeling. Now as I look back, I think it was the hot sauce.

[tsptalk]

nnuut wrote:
Well, Well, Well See what happens when you plan, get expert advise, and are pretty well sure your gonna make a little money. Based on every thing I read the Jobs report was estimated to be 150,000 or greater. So I'm in on Friday-- Bam, Bam that hurt! :*Gotta do better than this! Still in stocks, maybe it will jump Monday, but I don't think so?:@It's good when it's good!:U
nnuut - I'm not sure what your allocation was Friday, but I'm pretty relieved that I had a little hedge with that 50% in the I fund. If youalso were 50% S and 50% I, you maynot have done as badly as you think. On Friday that 50/50allocation lost only .06%. That's because the bad economic news that killed the U.S. funds, also killed the dollar and gave the I fund a 10 cent gain. The S fund was down 11 cents so all in all not too bad considering. Even Thursday the I fund lost only 2 cents. And considering we are coming off a 7% rally, again notbad. If you were 100% S or C unfortuanately you were hit harder but I suspect those funds will rebound more.

We'll get'em next week. :D

[Spaf]

tsptalk wrote:
We'll get'em next week. :D

I would hope thats true, but the soft patch is still lingering! The eco (oil, jobs, gains) problem remains to be fixed. TSP isn't helping with their closing on Monday. I don't see a good weather forecast! My system is indicating "sell". However,I have a time lag, that only lets me see the trends. So far, the trends do not seem to be good, the sentiment does not seem favorable. It's kind of like being one step behind. Right now I'm in a state of uncertainity. I'm sitting on a transfer to the G fund, but I have to wait till Tuesday to make a decision to go, or cancell. "Next week" is too uncertain! I need a better meter, to check the risk, given the recent history of the market ; cycles andslow bearish downtrend. Right now I am playing for caution, thevolitile soft patch is still a reality, at least for now. I wish I could be moreup beat , but the facts leave a measure of uncertainty that seems to me to over shadow the risk of being in stocks at th present time. Tomorrow, may be a different story, based on analysis andsentiment! However, I don't have cystal ball for tomorrow!

[Mike]

We're all stuck where we're at 'til the end of Tuesday anyway. My payday allocations are 100% G, so I have that as a hedge (I'm still young enough for that to be about 2% of my overall Thrift account).

A weak jobs report might do us some good, based on what Tom said elsewhere with the contrary market responses following these reports (up long-term after weak reports, down after strong ones). Still, in the short term, I expect some hits before we get another rally.

[nnuut]

Tom, I was reluctant to go 100% Friday, was 20% "C" and 20% "S" still took a hit, but not as bad as it could have been. I was watching the Dollar againstthe EURO and didn't see a drop in the dollar to justify going into the "I" fund. Where do you get your info on the strength of the dollar? If I had the correct info I may have made a better choice. I noticed you have beendivided between the "I" and the "S" for a while and the "I" has been steadly edging up for a couple of weeks, thought it might be ready for a down.:U. Good call on your part.:^

I'm still in with the 40% (no choice ). What about next week, do you think we are going to get a bounce or more of the same?:%

[tsptalk]

nnuut wrote:
Where do you get your info on the strength of the dollar?
I use that decisionpoint.com chart that I add to my market comments periodically. Whenever economic data comes out, you hope it will be strong, but if not, the falling dollar witllgive the I fund a boost. Of coursethe I fund won't do as well if the economic news is good.


I'm still in with the 40% (no choice ). What about next week, do you think we are going to get a bounce or more of the same?
That recent bullish sentiment tells us we need a little shakedown. Whether Thursday and Friday did that I don't know. Like someone else said, as soon as you jump out, we'll get the rebound. That whipsaw effect can be demoralizing. I'm staying the course knowing when all is said and done this year, the market should do OK.

[TheProphet]

Tom, You was talking about short cover... Leon