Turkey

[James48843]

This could be a real problem for the U.S.

[offtrack]

What am I supposed to eat for Thanksgiving,... ham? Damn bird flu!!

[James48843]

Turkey has moved tanks up along the border with Iraq, and the Turkish Parlement is supposed to vote within the next few hours whether to authorize their army to cross the Iraq border and begin combat operations against Kurdisk Iraqi locations.

http://www.euronews.net/index.php?page=info&article=448652&lng=1

If they vote to authorize, and if the tanks go across the border, then watch the stock markets tank (no pun intended) worldwide.

Tanks are lined up on the border ready to go, and have been for a few days now:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article2631279.ece

[charmed855]

Turkish MPs back attacks in Iraq (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7049348.stm)

Turkey's parliament has given permission for the government to launch military operations into Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish rebels. The vote was taken in defiance of pressure from the US and Iraq, which have called on Turkey for restraint. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the motion does not mean a military operation is imminent. But he said Turkey needed to be able to respond to a recent rise in bomb attacks blamed on PKK rebels from Iraq. Turkish MPs backed him overwhelmingly, by 507 votes to 19.

[James48843]

Gee- a foreign country is now threatening to invade Iraq with military force.

Hmmm.... Where have I heard that before?

[Bullitt]

Richard Clarke wrote a fiction novel titled 'Scorpion's Gate' about a similar futuristic scenario. In his book we've downsized our prescence significantly in Iraq and China has become a force to be reckoned with. China decides to conquer Iraq in order to control a vast portion of the world oil fields somewhere along the storyline. It was a pretty interesting story written by an insider and is probably a sign of things to come as other world powers emerge.

[James48843]

Jeeze- things heating up today in Turkey/Iraq border region. A 50-vehcile convoy loaded up and moved closer, and with the 12 killed and 8 missing Turkish soliders, there is a lot of reason for Turkey to cross over and deal with the PKK.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071022/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey

If Turkey crosses the border tonight, markets could really react negatively.

[hessian]

Hi James,
Been following your account talk for awhile, and I've gotten great input from your advice. I didn't mention foreign issues, like Turkey, in today's post, but agree whole PKK debacle could flare any day now - more reason for caution.

We know someone in Gov. thinks about implications/ramifications of geopolitical issues like this, so I'm just asking your opinion, do you think threre will be consideration of this in how FOMC responds next week? Increase/decrease likelyhood of a rate cut?

I realize how terrrible this sounds (as completely self-serving), but this isn't the case. I personally, wish an adequate solution could be found for the Kurds - a persecuted people that either need welcomed as an integrated population, or given a country of their own. PKK just isn't the answer, not a means to any good end. Its unfortunate for Turkey, a good and maybe best ally in the region (and recognize this whole issue is apparently an issue of importance to you as well).

[James48843]

Hi James,

We know someone in Gov. thinks about implications/ramifications of geopolitical issues like this, so I'm just asking your opinion, do you think threre will be consideration of this in how FOMC responds next week? Increase/decrease likelyhood of a rate cut?

....

Nope. Not in the slightest. No affect on what the FOMC does one way or the other.

The affect will not be on FOMC, who are intellegent people who look at the big picture. The affect will be on Joe Sixpack.

If Turkey invades Iraq, it will be an affect on Joe Six Pack, who doesn't have a CLUE as to the real ramifications, other than what he will see when oil prices spike as a result of the removal of northern Iraq oil supplies for the overall market.

When Joe Sixpack hears that Turkey has invaded Iraq, Joe won't even figure out that Turkey is a muslim country, and that Iraq's Kurdish population will be in big trouble. All Joe Sixpack will know is "Hey, there's more fighting in the mideast- Yep, G.W. was right- we got World War III breaking out." And they will pull money from stocks to safety.

By the way- I wish Joe and his kin would click the channel over on the TV and watch some "Link TV" from time to time. He'd get a whole 'nother perspective on the world if he did.

My 2 cents.

[James48843]

P.S.-

Reports this morning that the Turks are shelling the Kurds across the border with artillery, and have sent helicopters over- although Turkey denies any helicopters have crossed the border.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071024/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_iraq&printer=1;_ylt=AgvV1tux2b8CB.Wm1dYKywAUewgF