350Z's I fund thread OCT 07

[350zCommTech]

Thursday will be a very important day.

The ECB and BOE will announce their interest rates intentions early in the morning. I believe they will follow the US Fed and cut interest rates to help the US dollar. I'm thinking S or C fund for Thursday.

[Minnow]

Good to have you back 350!!!! ---you are back, right?

perhaps, you never left...

[350zCommTech]

Good to have you back 350!!!! ---you are back, right?

perhaps, you never left...

Thank you,

Yes, I'm back...:)

[Minnow]

cool as the other side of the pillow I see...

now on to $$$... I'm thinking I need more "C"owbell as well on Thursday but how much do you see the dollar climbing... just based on prospective rate cuts from the foreign banks??

[350zCommTech]

cool as the other side of the pillow I see...

now on to $$$... I'm thinking I need more "C"owbell as well on Thursday but how much do you see the dollar climbing... just based on prospective rate cuts from the foreign banks??

Yes, and it's also how much of a cut. If they cut .25% each, the dollar could jump as much as .5%, maybe more. We might be seeing hints now with the dollar rising in the last two days. This could have been an oversold bounce, but the dollar should have fallen today on the worst than expected pending home sales. I think currency traders are expecting cuts on Thursday.

[Minnow]

So, the S or C (or both) could outshine the I until the end of the year and possibly beyond?

[350zCommTech]

So, the S or C (or both) could outshine the I until the end of the year and possibly beyond?

No, I'm just talking Thursday.

[Minnow]

No, I'm just talking Thursday.

gotcha! thanks!

good to have u back...

[Robo5555]

Welcome back 350Z....we missed you.

[Aspiration]

Welcome back 350!:)

[SkyPilot]

Nikkei +.91% :)

[James48843]

I fund now showing up .13 cents in overnight trading....
I'm out of the loop TDY - so can't post updates today.

p.s. to those on autotracker- please feel free to use the line for text to explaing WHY you are making the moves you are. it helps all of us if you do.

[Robo5555]

Seems to me that based on all the interest rate cut hoopla coming out the best bet is going to be the S fund for Thursday. 350z and Ebb agree with this. How can you go against these two titans? Whats ur opinion James? Is it a trifecta?

[Robo5555]

35 people viewing this and no one has a comment......

[wv-girl]

35 people viewing this and no one has a comment......
That is because you addressed James

[Robo5555]

That is because you addressed James

My bad....

[airlift]

I have very limited access to the internet at work. Therefore, I would appreciate periodic posts to see how the I-Fund is doing. I am sure that many others will appreciate this and will be thankful as well.

[Robo5555]

I have very limited access to the internet at work. Therefore, I would appreciate periodic posts to see how the I-Fund is doing. I am sure that many others will appreciate this and will be thankful as well.

We started the day up 13 cents...I'm sure that has dropped by now.

[350zCommTech]

currently up 5 cents.

[350zCommTech]

The view is still mixed on ECB and BOE, but I think they will cut. Even if they hold, the dollar should still go up. Just look at what it's doing today, despite the lower than expected ADP.

[12%ayear]

Be careful with the US DOLLAR. IMO, you will see a strong bounce and the I Fund will tank. I Fund is mighty frothy near term.

[12%ayear]

what is the final est..350z? ty

[350zCommTech]

uup 4 cents.

[Frixxxx]

what is the final est..350z? ty
And the price of oil/gold... isn't keeping that in check?? What do you think will cause the breakthrough for the dollar?:cool:

[Birchtree]

The surprise for the rest of this year may be a rising dollar - as the market starts to discount lower economic growth in the Euro zone and the major commodity economies. You have time - it will be a slow prolonged process.

[weatherweenie]

EAFE +0.19%

Now to see if we keep from getting a -FV today.

[newbie2]

I think the best way to take advantage of I fund is to predict the trend of the dollar and take advantage of the fall of it. Day trading I fund might not be the best way to take advantage of currency change. If, example there is a new interest cut, they might be a change of value on the dollar. It might be good time to buy I fund right after the interest cut. I don't have knowledge of all the details here as a newbie..[/quote]

[nnuut]

Welcome to the Board newbie2, best of luck.
Norman:D

[12%ayear]

-fv ?

[Frixxxx]

I think the best way to take advantage of I fund is to predict the trend of the dollar and take advantage of the fall of it. Day trading I fund might not be the best way to take advantage of currency change. If, example there is a new interest cut, they might be a change of value on the dollar. It might be good time to buy I fund right after the interest cut. I don't have knowledge of all the details here as a newbie..
Wow newbie2...welcome...heck of a lot to say in your first post. Been trading currency long? :cool:

[350zCommTech]

-fv ?

It could be a -FV of 18 cents, plus 5 from today, total should be -13 cents.

[The_Technician]

It could be a -FV of 18 cents, plus 5 from today, total should be -13 cents.
I've been looking at a - .17 fv to 24.26 all afternoon....I had an indication one could occur earlier before deadline.

[ebbnflow]

If there is a -FV, it'll be because of the rising dollar.

If there is no -FV, the I-fund will start lower tonight on the get-go because the dollar rose after our noon deadline. It's a carry over.

[ATCJeff]

I move some out of the I today, hence will get a -FV today.:mad:

[Nimrod1193]

I move some out of the I today, hence will get a -FV today.:mad:

No kidding. I caught the $#*% end of the stick going in and coming out on this one. :(

[newbie2]

Wow newbie2...welcome...heck of a lot to say in your first post. Been trading currency long? :cool:

Never traded currency before, but don't you think I fund is the best way to trade currency - the cost is zero :)

My question for all your experts here is: what kind of impact this coming rate cut (if there is one) will have on the dollar? what kind of window will we have for this particular impact?

If we can somewhat quantify these 2 factors, we would know how to make more money in I fund, hopefully, or at least we will have better calculated odds.

Newbie

[12%ayear]

http://www.itisplanb.com/board/images/smilies/sad3.gif Looks like a -fvhttp://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Sad/bigcry.gifhttp://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Sad/skinned-knee.gifhttp://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Sad/cry-baby.gif

[GGal]

Sometimes s##t happens. I just put on my big girl panties and deal with it.

GGAL

[James48843]

Note:

Here is a quesiton to ponder.....

I was thinking today- you know the TSPTALK Sentiment Survey signaled a sell last week.

I was wondering.....if Ebb & TSPTALK were combined...what would the return have been. I.E. if we followed EBB during the times that TSPTALK sentiment survey was IN the markets, and then pulled out to "G" say, two days after the Sentiment Survey signaled a sideline move, what would the return have been?

I've been thinking that would be a good set of values to run and see how it works out.

[James48843]

G= 12.14 unchanged
F= 11.61 unchanged
C= 17.28 -.07
S= 20.81 -.12
I= 25.28 -.11

[350zCommTech]

G= 12.14 unchanged
F= 11.61 unchanged
C= 17.28 -.07
S= 20.81 -.12
I= 25.28 -.11


That's a -16 cent FV.

[Nimrod1193]

Note:

Here is a quesiton to ponder.....

I was thnking today- you know the TSPTALK Sentiment Survey signaled a sell last week.

I was wondering.....if Ebb & TSPTALK were combined...what would the return have been. I.E. if we followed EBB during the times that TSPTALK sentiment survey was IN the markets, and then pulled out to "G" say, two days after the Sentiment Survey signaled a sideline move, what would the return have been?

I've been thinking that would be a good set of values to run and see how it works out.

I've also wondered what the return would be if we used the Sentiment Survey to decide whether to follow the contrarian move on the EbbTracker (i.e. if the contrarian move is to go to the safety of the G-fund, you do it only if the Sentiment Survey says 'Sell'.)

[Spaf]

Nimrod,
What I'm running is the results from the free and premium services: TSPTalk, Ebb, Sentiment, Trader Fred and Rev. Shark. These 5 inputs give me the best data that I consider available.
I look back to 2004 and see what we had then and then to 2007 and see what we have now. I also see the multitude of outside news letters, and their prices, wow!
TSPTalk has a lot of good stuff going.
My 2 cents
Spaf


I've also wondered what the return would be if we used the Sentiment Survey to decide whether to follow the contrarian move on the EbbTracker (i.e. if the contrarian move is to go to the safety of the G-fund, you do it only if the Sentiment Survey says 'Sell'.)

[ebbnflow]

If there is a -FV, it'll be because of the rising dollar.

If there is no -FV, the I-fund will start lower tonight on the get-go because the dollar rose after our noon deadline. It's a carry over.

Oops, wrong statement. They do carry it over with or without an FV. I-funders starting in the hole with a carry over of -.25% (from the dollar rise after our noon deadline). But they still have the 16 cents (+.63%) cushion from the FV correction. :o

[James48843]

Last night's falling Japan has given way unexpectedly (at least in my book) to a much stronger morning in London. The expected (and FV'd) decline has not happened.

Right now, I showing up 3 cents - plus whatever the F was yesterday. Was it 16 cents FV? Anyone remember?

If so, we're looking like we're up 19 cents already, if that is the case.....

[easyrydr]

I think I am going to stay 25% C, 25% G, and 50% I. Wish me luck:) y'all.

[James48843]

Now showing down 1 cent, plus the .16 cents FV from yesterday- equals a gain of 15 cents.

[Robo5555]

Thats a great start....and I went to the S fund..:-(

[12%ayear]

Change...-9.130 %.. Change..-0.393
From Bloomberg...16 cents-9 cents=+7 cents

[350zCommTech]

Well, it looks like both the ECB and the BOE have more backbone than Helicopter Ben. They did the right thing and held rates. This will cause the dollar to continue it's down trend. I wish I knew what tomorrow's jobs number is going to be.:nuts:

[12%ayear]

Well, it looks like both the ECB and the BOE have more backbone than Helicopter Ben. They did the right thing and held rates. This will cause the dollar to continue it's down trend. I wish I knew what tomorrow's jobs number is going to be.:nuts:
They see inflation.

[Robo5555]

Where are u guys going to be for Friday?

[weatherweenie]

Where are u guys going to be for Friday?

In Colorado. :toung:

[12%ayear]

In Colorado. :toung:
BOSTON BABY!!! I do hope the Cubs win. Like underdogs. Time to remove the goat tale and Bartman jinx. Anyway S Fund for Friday. We might get some -fv this afternoon.

[350zCommTech]

Where are u guys going to be for Friday?

I'm thinking G, but I don;t have a clue right now. Economist are expecting a 100k jobs. If it comes in as expected, the market will tank and the dollar will rise.

[ATCJeff]

Where are u guys going to be for Friday?


In Colorado. :toung:

Now that's funny!:D

[budnipper1]

I'm thinking G, but I don;t have a clue right now. Economist are expecting a 100k jobs. If it comes in as expected, the market will tank and the dollar will rise.
How does this coming Monday holiday factor in? Is Columbus Day a holiday for the US markets? Maybe not, since I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere today.

[350zCommTech]

Down 3 cents, plus 16 cents -FVC, total is 13.

[350zCommTech]

How does this coming Monday holiday factor in? Is Columbus Day a holiday for the US markets? Maybe not, since I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere today.

Good question. I'm thinking C or S for Tuesday because of the FOMC minutes. If the market goes up tomorrow, I'll want to be in the I fund for Monday. I think the markets will open Monday?

[SCHAGAN]

Good question. I'm thinking C or S for Tuesday because of the FOMC minutes. If the market goes up tomorrow, I'll want to be in the I fund for Monday. I think the markets will open Monday?
Remaining 2007 Market Holidays and Early Closures

27 November (Thanksgiving)
28 November (Early Closure-1 p.m. EST)
25 December (Christmas)

[budnipper1]

Good question. I'm thinking C or S for Tuesday because of the FOMC minutes. If the market goes up tomorrow, I'll want to be in the I fund for Monday. I think the markets will open Monday?
ok, thank you...
markets are open on Monday and SCHAGAN beat me to it..thanks

ps...all the little graphy thingys at the bottom are pointing down now:mad:

[SCHAGAN]

Remaining 2007 Market Holidays and Early Closures

27 November (Thanksgiving)
28 November (Early Closure-1 p.m. EST)
25 December (Christmas)

2008 Market Holidays and Early Closures

New Year's Day 1 Jan
MLK, Jr Day 21 Jan
President's Day 18 Feb
Good Friday 21 Mar
Memorial Day 26 May
Independence Day 4 Jul
Labor Day 1 Sep
Thanksgiving 27 Nov
Early Closure (1 EST) 28 Nov
Christmas 25 Dec

[Frixxxx]

ps...all the little graphy thingys at the bottom are pointing down now:mad:

Who started that?:cool:

[Frixxxx]

We may be out of the woods on all that recession talk!

http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSN0439786820071004:cool:

[SCHAGAN]

Remaining 2007 Market Holidays and Early Closures

27 November (Thanksgiving)
28 November (Early Closure-1 p.m. EST)
25 December (Christmas)

I apologize, I gave you 2008 market closures. 2007 is as follows:

22 November (Thanksgiving)
23 November (Early Closure-1 p.m. EST)
25 December (Christmas)

Sorry for the confusion. :(

[12%ayear]

I think the bond market is closed for Columbus Day, but the markets are open. BTW...for those who did not see this....
****off topic http://www.break.com/index/veteran-c...ican-flag.html (http://www.break.com/index/veteran-cuts-down-mexican-flag.html) wow!! He is 100% right!! That guy is my hero.
__________________

[weatherweenie]

Eafe -0.16%

[ebbnflow]

-0.16% or -.04 cents +.16 cents (FVC) = +.12 cents for the I-funders. :)

[Jonathan]

We may be out of the woods on all that recession talk!

http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSN0439786820071004:cool:

Time will tell...economists have about a .000 batting average when it comes to predicting recessions :(

[12%ayear]

A .50% basis cut does not cure the Economy. There are many elements that are brewing. A large batch of interest-only loans soon expire. The sub-prime is not resolved,slower real estate sales(mind you, we are heading into the winter),retailers are sluggish,a nosediving US Dollar,higher oil prices...need I to go on. We are heading into a bad business cycle. The markets have not had a bad year since March 2003, the start of the Iraq War. Greenspan also said the days of borrowing cheap are over. Look at Europe, they did not cut.Why? they know inflationary pressure is there. Also, they want to keep the US Dollar down. Everything will come to a head . In Asia the Chinese Market is another Tulip Scam. Bloated is an understatement to say the least. Hang Seng broke a new high....28,199.75. The Hang Seng index is up 41 percent since the start of the year..Remember March 2000, when NASDAQ imploded? Problems with the Economy and Wall Street do not get resolved in a month or two.

[SkyPilot]

Time will tell...economists have about a .000 batting average when it comes to predicting recessions :(

I keep hearing they predicted 10 of the last 3! :D

[newbie2]

A .50% basis cut does not cure the Economy. There are many elements that are brewing. A large batch of interest-only loans soon expire. The sub-prime is not resolved,slower real estate sales(mind you, we are heading into the winter),retailers are sluggish,a nosediving US Dollar,higher oil prices...need I to go on. We are heading into a bad business cycle. The markets have not had a bad year since March 2003, the start of the Iraq War. Greenspan also said the days of borrowing cheap are over. Look at Europe, they did not cut.Why? they know inflationary pressure is there. Also, they want to keep the US Dollar down. Everything will come to a head . In Asia the Chinese Market is another Tulip Scam. Bloated is an understatement to say the least. Hang Seng broke a new high....28,199.75. The Hang Seng index is up 41 percent since the start of the year..Remember March 2000, when NASDAQ imploded? Problems with the Economy and Wall Street do not get resolved in a month or two.

If the Fed continues to cut interest rate, real estate market will sustain (it is cheaper to borrow therefore reducing the cost of owning real estates), which in turn means sub prime problems will be minor problems (if people can sell their home with decent prices, their sub-prime problems will go away). I also believe the falling dollar will have the real estate market as well. for one, real estate will hold its intrinsic value. Also, foreign money will flow in for cheaper US real estate. So I think we will have some of problems, but not all of them at the same time, at least not in the short term period.

just some brainstorming by a newbie..

[350zCommTech]

A .50% basis cut does not cure the Economy. There are many elements that are brewing. A large batch of interest-only loans soon expire. The sub-prime is not resolved,slower real estate sales(mind you, we are heading into the winter),retailers are sluggish,a nosediving US Dollar,higher oil prices...need I to go on. We are heading into a bad business cycle. The markets have not had a bad year since March 2003, the start of the Iraq War. Greenspan also said the days of borrowing cheap are over. Look at Europe, they did not cut.Why? they know inflationary pressure is there. Also, they want to keep the US Dollar down. Everything will come to a head . In Asia the Chinese Market is another Tulip Scam. Bloated is an understatement to say the least. Hang Seng broke a new high....28,199.75. The Hang Seng index is up 41 percent since the start of the year..Remember March 2000, when NASDAQ imploded? Problems with the Economy and Wall Street do not get resolved in a month or two.

I'm not certain that part of their intent was to keep the US dollar down, since their exporters are already screaming about the high Euro. But you are absolutely correct about their inflation concerns. Their actions today was basically them giving the finger to Bernake and Paulson. I applaud them for their actions. The job of any CB is to fight inflation, not to bail out wall street. Ben Bernake said so himself, but as we now know, he lied.

I also agree with you about the Hang Sang, we need to watch them tonight. They're obviously a bubble, just like the Shanghai index. The Hang Sang had a big reversal the other night and it fell 500 points last night.

[350zCommTech]

If the Fed continues to cut interest rate, real estate market will sustain (it is cheaper to borrow therefore reducing the cost of owning real estates), which in turn means sub prime problems will be minor problems (if people can sell their home with decent prices, their sub-prime problems will go away). I also believe the falling dollar will have the real estate market as well. for one, real estate will hold its intrinsic value. Also, foreign money will flow in for cheaper US real estate. So I think we will have some of problems, but not all of them at the same time, at least not in the short term period.

just some brainstorming by a newbie..

I disagree. The Fed does not control long term interest rates. Their .50% cut actually caused inflation concerns, which drove up long term bond yields. Those are what sets your mortgage rates. Besides, for the housing market to turn around, inventory and price needs to drop substantially, more so than interest rates.

[newbie2]

I disagree. The Fed does not control long term interest rates. Their .50% cut actually caused inflation concerns, which drove up long term bond yields. Those are what sets your mortgage rates. Besides, for the housing market to turn around, inventory and price needs to drop substantially, more so than interest rates.

Point taken. However, I believe inflation effect itself will cause the house price to go up (if money is worth less than before, price of goods will go up. history shows that land always appreciate more than inflation. So the total effect will mean real estate price will go up). Cheaper fed rate will make short term loans and line of credit cheaper, which in turn helps real estate market and purchasing power of average consumers.

[easyrydr]

Yea I made somemore money today:):) It looks like almost .20 on the dollar. I can almost retire:D

[12%ayear]

Another thing to look at will be earnings. Starting Mid-October, we will see a flood of numbers. I cannot see how they can possible be can be postive. The guidance will have to be lower at best. The only ones that have some bufferzone are the multi-nationals with the currency built in. Not trying to be negative..but please find some good news in this...subprime woes,China's tulipmania market, higher oil prices..$100 a barrel?,lenders tighting up the vaults,Iran( possible strike, you never know with Pres. Bush), Bear Sterns,Credit Suisee laying off,sluggish car sales,even state lotteries are down. People are broke...Over burden with credit card debts. Home Equity Loans are maxed. Anyway, look for one more push over 14000s before we correct. Looking for 14100s tomorrow, then I will bailout.

[12%ayear]

Point taken. However, I believe inflation effect itself will cause the house price to go up (if money is worth less than before, price of goods will go up. history shows that land always appreciate more than inflation. So the total effect will mean real estate price will go up). Cheaper fed rate will make short term loans and line of credit cheaper, which in turn helps real estate market and purchasing power of average consumers.
I disagree with that with real estate. Supply/demand. More supply/less demand currently causes inventory problems. That causes buyers to be in control and offer less on the property like in the early 1990s. The Fed can only cut to a point. Inflation means they have to go up..lol

[ebbnflow]

I apologize, I gave you 2008 market closures. 2007 is as follows:

22 November (Thanksgiving)
23 November (Early Closure-1 p.m. EST)
25 December (Christmas)

Sorry for the confusion. :(

I got a question for anybody. Can we do an IFT on Monday morning? The market is open, but is the TSP office able to do transactions for that day or are they closed? :confused:

[ATCJeff]

I got a question for anybody. Can we do an IFT on Monday morning? The market is open, but is the TSP office able to do transactions for that day or are they closed? :confused:

No notice on Tsp.gov so I guess, yes.

[ebbnflow]

Okay, thanks ATCJeff! :)

[airlift]

It's a Federal Holiday. Are they Federal employees?

[buda]

It's a Federal Holiday. Are they Federal employees?

I would guess they were Federal. Do they actually work or does the computer do all the work?

Bud's

[fabijo]

It's a Federal Holiday. Are they Federal employees?

Last year, the TSP site only showed the announcement the day after Columbus Day that their offices would be closed the day prior and IFTs will only take affect the next day. See here, from last year's Market Talk thread:


Is it me or was this just posted today?

The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Monday, October 10th, in observance of Columbus Day. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 9th) will be processed Tuesday night (October 10th), at Tuesday's closing share prices.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=59108&postcount=33

[Robo5555]

In Colorado. :toung:

Used to live there... go rockies!!

[James48843]

I would guess they were Federal.
Bud's


They are now contractor employees, not federal employees. They USED to be federal employees until they were ousted about a year or a year and a half ago.


Not sure if they will be open on Monday or not. Fabijo pulled the message from last year showing they were closed on Columbus day. TSP site this year doesn't have any info posted on it yet one way or the other.

[350zCommTech]

FYI:

Japan will closed on Monday.

[budnipper1]

They are now contractor employees, not federal employees. They USED to be federal employees until they were ousted about a year or a year and a half ago.


Not sure if they will be open on Monday or not. Fabijo pulled the message from last year showing they were closed on Columbus day. TSP site this year doesn't have any info posted on it yet one way or the other.
They finally announced it...
http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html (click "account access" tab)
The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Monday, October 8th, in observance of Columbus Day. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 8th) will be processed Tuesday night (October 9th), at Tuesday's closing share prices.

The switch to account numbers is scheduled for October 9, 2007
http://www.tsp.gov/curinfo/login/accountnumber.html

[airlift]

When is the last opportunity to do an IFT to be in a fund on Tuesday? Sunday, Monday?

[12%ayear]

When is the last opportunity to do an IFT to be in a fund on Tuesday? Sunday, Monday?
By today's deadline I would think. Treat Monday as a Holiday to make a transfer.

[airlift]

Thanks 12%.

Have you decided where to go for Monday and Tuesday?

[James48843]

They finally announced it...
http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html (click "account access" tab)
The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Monday, October 8th, in observance of Columbus Day. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 8th) will be processed Tuesday night (October 9th), at Tuesday's closing share prices.

The switch to account numbers is scheduled for October 9, 2007
http://www.tsp.gov/curinfo/login/accountnumber.html (http://www.tsp.gov/curinfo/login/accountnumber.html)



Thanks for posting that.

Does everybody have their NEW account numbers ready at hand?

[airlift]

I do! Now we also have to change the codes for employeexpress. Aside from a photografic memory, does someone have any useful lessons or ideas as to where to store so many security passwords and codes?

[FundSurfer]

Aside from a photografic memory, does someone have any useful lessons or ideas as to where to store so many security passwords and codes?

How about a little black book next to your computer?

Got my #...

[weatherweenie]

Jobs number seems to have been well received overseas at least. FTSE is climbing.

[fedgolfer]

Is this morning's job report good for the dollar and bad for the I fund?

On a sidenote, the upward revision (although well recieved by morning advances in futures) really says the Fed acted on bad jobs data when they used that as the excuse to cut .50 basis points. Oh well, I'll take the pop even though it looks like the Fed either doesn't know what its doing or its rate policy is really manipulated by Wall St.

[Jonathan]

If the Fed continues to cut interest rate, real estate market will sustain (it is cheaper to borrow therefore reducing the cost of owning real estates), which in turn means sub prime problems will be minor problems (if people can sell their home with decent prices, their sub-prime problems will go away).


From everything I'm reading, it simply won't solve things. The fundamental issue is you have millions of people who bought houses who couldn't have afforded normal payments on fixed 30-year mortgages (normal mortgages) even when interest rates were rock-bottom, and those sub-prime mortgages have found their way into everything. The fed cutting rates now won't fix that problem.

Those people are insolvent, period, and barring some sort of legislation a very large number will either short-sale or be foreclosed upon. Either way, a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money, and it won't be (isn't) confined to the sub-prime market.

(EDIT: Sorry about the late reply post; was out most of yesterday...)

[350zCommTech]

Is this morning's job report good for the dollar and bad for the I fund?

On a sidenote, the upward revision (although well recieved by morning advances in futures) really says the Fed acted on bad jobs data when they used that as the excuse to cut .50 basis points. Oh well, I'll take the pop even though it looks like the Fed either doesn't know what its doing or its rate policy is really manipulated by Wall St.


Yes, this is good for the dollar and hurts the I fund. With Japan being closed on Monday, I'm not sure if I'll stick to my plan to be in the I fund for Monday and Tuesday. The dollar could really move up without the US trader's influence.

As for the Fed, I have an opinion on why they did a .50% cut, but today's jobs number does make Ben look like an idiot.:toung:

[James48843]

I fund now showing up 9 cents as of 9:21.

Also- many TSPTALKERS are talking about doing a separate "autotracker" and/or a separate "message board" thread inside the members only area for premium subscribers. We (moderators) are talking about that now- how to do it, what it would take, etc. We here you, and are evalutaing the ideas now. Will try and let you all know more later- it's been a real push to deal with all the changes so far, so please give us some time to work things through. thanks

[350zCommTech]

As for the Fed, I have an opinion on why they did a .50% cut, but today's jobs number does make Ben look like an idiot.:toung:


Here's a crazy thought:

What if today's jobs number and the upward revisions are just a response to the falling dollar?

[ChemEng]

August revised from a -4K decline to a 89K rise.

A 93K correction for non-farm payrolls for August? :rolleyes:

Looks like someone was trying to wag the dog. And the Fed wagged appropriately with an interest cut.

[Ed_the_Fed]

The American dollar is in serious trouble. The Canadian dollar is now worth more than the US dollar. I realized this the other day when I was working on a trip to Whistler, British Columbia. It is no longer a cheap trip to Canada. I never thought I would see this in my lifetime. The american dollar has always been worth anywhere from $1.07 to $1.31 canadian and this is rather distressing news. I honestly don't know where the US markets will go in the future because we don't have any historical data on how they react under the current environment. It just hasn't happened before now. I will be real curious to see what happens to the dollar in the next few months. I sure hope it has hit bottom and will begin to rebound. This is scary folks.

[James48843]

Nice open.

"I" fund now showing up .19 cents

[350zCommTech]

A 93K correction for non-farm payrolls for August? :rolleyes:

Looks like someone was trying to wag the dog. And the Fed wagged appropriately with an interest cut.


Well, all that wagging has pushed the long term bond yields up significantly since Sept. 18. That's not helping the housing industry.:laugh:

[ChemEng]

The American dollar is in serious trouble.

I tend to agree with you Ed, but the $ is at an all time low. Are you suggesting it will continue to drop? This would be a case for a long position in I fund.

[350zCommTech]

A 93K correction for non-farm payrolls for August? :rolleyes:

Looks like someone was trying to wag the dog. And the Fed wagged appropriately with an interest cut.


Well, all that wagging has pushed the long term bond yields up significantly since Sept. 18. That's not helping the housing industry.:laugh:

LOL!!! Some idiot guess on CNBC just said that today's jobs number shows that the Fed acted timely on Sept. 18.:laugh:

[Robo5555]

Is shaping to be a good Friday so far. Hope it holds up!

[Robo5555]

Good question. I'm thinking C or S for Tuesday because of the FOMC minutes. If the market goes up tomorrow, I'll want to be in the I fund for Monday. I think the markets will open Monday?

What's everyones plan?

[SCHAGAN]

What's everyones plan?

I'm thinking I am going to take today's gain and hide until after the market digests the Fed's minutes.

[merlin]

Thanks for posting that.

Does everybody have their NEW account numbers ready at hand?

Have not received mine.

[350zCommTech]

What's everyones plan?

The dollar reversed and is now unchanged and heading back down again, so I'm still thinking I fund.

But the reaction in the currency markets suggest that they think the today's employment report is BS. I agree with them. So, the market could reverse later today. Perhaps a -FV? That would be nice...:D

[merlin]

Have not received mine.


Should I call Them today?

[350zCommTech]

I'm thinking I am going to take today's gain and hide until after the market digests the Fed's minutes.

Good idea, are you thinking that the reaction to the Feds minutes will be muted because of today's jobs number?

[Robo5555]

Should I call Them today?

I would call them....everyone got theirs where I work.

[tspgo_com]

What's everyones plan?

This is TSPGO's plan for the HR:

Thu 04/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: S
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Tue 09/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 10, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Wed 10/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 11, 07 ==> Pointing to: F/I
Thu 11/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 12, 07 ==> Pointing to: I

and it comes from these sets of probabilities:

10/04/07 = For => 10/05/07 ==> F(2)57 ==> I(5)65 ==> G(7) ==> F(1)46 ==> S(6)72 Pointing to: S
10/05/07 = For => 10/09/07 ==> 0 ==> I(1)60 ==> S(5)51 ==> G(7) ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/09/07 = For => 10/10/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> C(7)73 Pointing to: I
10/10/07 = For => 10/11/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(5)74 ==> F(5)48 Pointing to: F/I
10/11/07 = For => 10/12/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I

[NyteTracker]

What's up with all the votes in Sentiment Survey (http://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php); more than double the average.:blink:
I wonder if this will make it more or less accurate.
BTW it was way off last week with Sell and the market up over 2% (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?pg=ch&symb=95899W10&time=5dy&freq=15mi&charts=0&comp=efa&compidx=SP500%7E3377&ind_compind=&uf=0&lf=1&ma=0&maval=60)(S Fund).

[James48843]

What's up with all the votes in Sentiment Survey (http://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php); more than double the average.:blink:
I wonder if this will make it more or less accurate.
BTW it was way off last week with Sell and the market up over 2% (http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?pg=ch&symb=95899W10&time=5dy&freq=15mi&charts=0&comp=efa&compidx=SP500%7E3377&ind_compind=&uf=0&lf=1&ma=0&maval=60)(S Fund).

Tom made a change this week.

Previously- the survey was a small chart on the right hand side of his main page. AND/OR he mailed out an email asking you to participate in the survey. Normally he got between 350 and 400 people to vote every time.

Even though we got a lot of new visitors and members in the last few months, the number of people voting in the survey remained flat.

So tom thought it would be a good idea to try to expand the pool of voters, by placing the actual survey right dead center in his daily comments. Theroy was more people would see it then, and more people would vote.

It obviously worked.


Now, the only problem is.....will the data gained from double the number of people voting (and the ratios of bulls to bears, vs. return, etc), still hold up with the same consitency with 900 people voting,

as when it was just the 350-400 people?

that becomes the question.

[James48843]

Tom made a change this week.

Previously- the survey was a small chart on the right hand side of his main page. AND/OR he mailed out an email asking you to participate in the survey. Normally he got between 350 and 400 people to vote every time.

Even though we got a lot of new visitors and members in the last few months, the number of people voting in the survey remained flat.

So tom thought it would be a good idea to try to expand the pool of voters, by placing the actual survey right dead center in his daily comments. Theroy was more people would see it then, and more people would vote.

It obviously worked.


Now, the only problem is.....will the data gained from double the number of people voting (and the ratios of bulls to bears, vs. return, etc), still hold up with the same consitency with 900 people voting,

as when it was just the 350-400 people?

that becomes the question.

Another quick observation- the "sell signals" are frequently a few days to a few weeks ahead of the actual downturns. I use it not a a quick, hard, fast rule to follow, but rather as a signal to myself to pay much closer attention, and to be prepared to bail out if other fundelementals change.

It's more of a bright yellow caution light to me rather than a strict red light stop signal. I may just step on the gas and speed through the light, knowning that there may be an accident ahead to watch out for.

[NyteTracker]

Thanks James, and good observation.

[LimaFox]

Any estimates?

[350zCommTech]

Any estimates?


Up 15 cents.

[frokker]

Have not received mine.

Me neither.

[LimaFox]

Thanks!

[Ed_the_Fed]

One of my co-workers has not recieved his. He is in CSRS and is making his own contributions to TSP. Are either of you who haven't recieved an account number in CSRS? I am in FERS and recieved my new number a while ago, perhaps as much as a month now.

[350zCommTech]

Final:

Up 16 cents.

[NyteTracker]

I smell +FV, a tough choice for the I. :worried:

[Frixxxx]

One of my co-workers has not recieved his. He is in CSRS and is making his own contributions to TSP. Are either of you who haven't recieved an account number in CSRS? I am in FERS and recieved my new number a while ago, perhaps as much as a month now.

Got mine two weeks ago - FERS:cool:

[SCHAGAN]

I smell +FV, a tough choice for the I. :worried:

Me too. That is why I couldn't follow the herd. I already had I for today anyway. Time to take the profit today and hide for a couple of days.

[CopterDoc]

I'm going back to the G fund and see what happens next
Scott

[frokker]

One of my co-workers has not recieved his. He is in CSRS and is making his own contributions to TSP. Are either of you who haven't recieved an account number in CSRS? I am in FERS and recieved my new number a while ago, perhaps as much as a month now.

Im Military.

[pogo]

moving to the tsp news column with some result.

[Corvette]

One of my co-workers has not recieved his. He is in CSRS and is making his own contributions to TSP. Are either of you who haven't recieved an account number in CSRS? I am in FERS and recieved my new number a while ago, perhaps as much as a month now.

I am a CSRS employee. I received the letter about a week ago. I almost threw it out. It looks like junk mail. Ask him if he threw out a small blue letter?

I generally check the postage. I open first class mail and trash the rest. I get too much mail.

[ebbnflow]

Final MSCI EAFE = +.71% or +.18 cents.

That's without any FV consideration. :)

[SkyPilot]

I am a CSRS employee. I received the letter about a week ago. I almost threw it out. It looks like junk mail. Ask him if he threw out a small blue letter?

I generally check the postage. I open first class mail and trash the rest. I get too much mail.

Bet someone at TSP wanted to send it out in another DVD :D .

[charmed855]

Here comes the profit taking. There may not be a +FV if this holds.

[The_Technician]

Here comes the profit taking. There may not be a +FV if this holds.
I don't see an FV applying on todays action, at least it didn't show up on the Crystal Ball today, but u never really know do u???

Carnac

[ebbnflow]

G 12.15 even
F 11.57 -.06 -0.52%
C 17.48 +.17 +0.98%
S 21.18 +.32 +1.53%
I 25.58 +.18 +0.71%

Congrats to all, especially the S-funders! :)

[12%ayear]

G 12.15 even
F 11.57 -.06 -0.52%
C 17.48 +.17 +0.98%
S 21.18 +.32 +1.53%
I 25.58 +.18 +0.71%

Congrats to all, especially the S-funders! :)
ty ebby:)

[Wolverine]

Yes, thanks for the update. I had not looked yet.

Whoooo Hoooooooo LOL

[12%ayear]

Anyone have yesterday close for the C, S, I, and F with %s?? I need to record it in my ledger..ty

[fabijo]

I do! Now we also have to change the codes for employeexpress. Aside from a photografic memory, does someone have any useful lessons or ideas as to where to store so many security passwords and codes?

http://keepass.info/

I've heard many good things about this one. Right now, I just use a little memo book with my own encrypted messages to myself. I've been meaning to get a program like this for my wife, because I have all kinds of web accounts that she has no clue how to access and I really don't want to write it all down in plain sight. The problem is that this program does not run on a Mac.

[Robo5555]

Another quick observation- the "sell signals" are frequently a few days to a few weeks ahead of the actual downturns. I use it not a a quick, hard, fast rule to follow, but rather as a signal to myself to pay much closer attention, and to be prepared to bail out if other fundelementals change.

It's more of a bright yellow caution light to me rather than a strict red light stop signal. I may just step on the gas and speed through the light, knowning that there may be an accident ahead to watch out for.

Thanks James.

[airlift]

Fab,

Thanks for the information and for opening a window into your private life.:)


http://keepass.info/

I've heard many good things about this one. Right now, I just use a little memo book with my own encrypted messages to myself. I've been meaning to get a program like this for my wife, because I have all kinds of web accounts that she has no clue how to access and I really don't want to write it all down in plain sight. The problem is that this program does not run on a Mac.

[Robo5555]

It was a good week for the S fund and not so good for the I fund. Next week I'll prob be mostly in the I fund but devating if a 50/50 split might be a better bet.... Guess we won't know that until next Friday.

[12%ayear]

Merrill suffers $5.5B subprime hit http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/05/news/companies/merrill_lynch/index.htm?postversion=2007100516 BAD NEWS..........Monday sell-off

[camper65]

Merrill suffers $5.5B subprime hit http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/05/news/companies/merrill_lynch/index.htm?postversion=2007100516 BAD NEWS..........Monday sell-off

A Monday sell off wouldn't surprise me after Fridays gains, but, more that one finance Co. reported losses, (Sub-prime related) last week and they were rewarded with stock gains! Comment?

[pogo]

Merrill suffers $5.5B subprime hit http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/05/news/companies/merrill_lynch/index.htm?postversion=2007100516 BAD NEWS..........Monday sell-off

that call was before the market was closed-i think? if it was the market shurg it off on friday before the close and the share where still up for the day--could be wrong

[pogo]

A Monday sell off wouldn't surprise me after Fridays gains, but, more that one finance Co. reported losses, (Sub-prime related) last week and they were rewarded with stock gains! Comment?camper65 you beat me by 30-seconds on the remarks to 12%

[camper65]

camper65 you beat me by 30-seconds on the remarks to 12%
(and I'n a two finger typer!!! hahaha)

[airlift]

It's your ideas we are after, not the way you type. Don't worry about it.

[12%ayear]

Although many banks rallied last week on bad news, there will be a wall of worry going forward. Many banks reported warnings including MER., which BTW did report the bad news before the close. However;now they will start to worry that the FED will not cut based on that unemployment report. Retail sales are estimated to be very bad for the holidays. On the other side of the coin..inflation is creeping ...OIL higher. Europe did not cut this week. Remember that the employment number can easily be fluffed up to support the economy.

[Griffin]

The Tokyo stock exchange is closed for National Sports Day 8 October. The rest of Asia is on the move.

[James48843]

Japan is closed.

That makes me think tomorrow will be a big day for Japan- they missed out on Friday's big move up because they ended before it happened- and they are closed today. So I think tomorrow will be a powerful up day in Japan.


Dollar is a tad stronger against the Yen this morning- and the European markets are mixed. Basically a flat "I" so far, we'll have to wait a bit more to see if a direction comes out of European trading today.

[James48843]

Just a short note and reminder-

We are carrying about 87 accounts now in the autotracker.

Anyone else who wants to join, (or compete, depending on how you view it) is welcome to join in, establish an autotracker account, and begin making IFT moves (or leaving it in one place, you choice).

All it takes is ten posts, and agreement to follow the terms of service for the autotracker, found here. (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=113427#post113427)

Please feel free to sign up if you meet those qualifications, and if you have any problems, feel free to PM a moderator for help signing up.

Thanks- and happy investing!

[James48843]

Tidbit of the day:

In the autotracker, you are allowed to make a text entry along with your IFT.

Feel free to tell us WHY you are moving to the place you are moving- what is your motivator? What news or signal did you see to make you move where you moved? Or what do you think will happen in a day or two?

Feel free to add some commentary in that autotracker text line. We can learn from each other when we know what is triggering your move.

That's why we allow the text line of info in there.

Just remember- do NOT put in there that you are following one of the premium services. (Ebb, Reb Shark, Trader Fred).

Anything other than that is welcome.

[Robo5555]

There is talk of no interest rate cut on MSNBC today. The market was expecting another cut and it might not happen.

[Robo5555]

Futures are down so far this morning. Its going to be a hard week to call...like every week. No easy action.

[James48843]

I don't have my handy ChemEng spreadsheet at home, so I can't give a good I fund number for today- remember also that Japan is closed, so that cell should read "0" change today, if anyone is going to run the spreadsheet.

CAC now down .23%
DAX now down .34%
FSTE now down by .51%

And the dollar is up a full penny against the Euro.

I think that makes it pretty clear that the "I" is going to be down pretty good today.

[sdouglas3]

All the talk from the TSP board about decreasing interfund transactions(and increasing costs to support increased transactions) should stop now. The damn TSP office is closed today while the market is open. This is a negative display by the TSP board. If the board and office wants to act like a big mutual fund then they need to act like one and be open when the market is open and have cut off times at 2:00 like the mutual fund companies do. JMO :)

Steve

[Nimrod1193]

Current estimate: -18 cents (-5 from markets, -13 from dollar)

[350zCommTech]

Final:

Down 18 cents.

[Robo5555]

We have a lot of ground to make up. Japan is up as expected.

[dell]

Anyone jumping in the I Fund today?

[James48843]

Question-

ChemEng's spreadsheet is now showing a postive .06 cents right now. My question is does that take into account yesterday's decline in European markets, or do we have to factor that in as well?

[Robo5555]

Anyone jumping in the I Fund today?

Am already all in the I fund did the IFT from the S fund Friday am. My dilema is if it would be better to split 50/50 S/I than all in I fund. The 50/50 might be better if the dollar keeps gaining strenth.

[Robo5555]

USM futures are up and getting better b4 the open.

[ChemEng]

Question-

ChemEng's spreadsheet is now showing a postive .06 cents right now. My question is does that take into account yesterday's decline in European markets, or do we have to factor that in as well?

I dont think so. The % will be right for todays action, but the amounts would be off because the TSP share price wasnt updated yesterday.

You could "fake" it by typing in what yesterdays share prices should have been in S4 reference of cell G30. Instead of =F32-S4 it would look like =F32-25.40. (Also make the same change to the S4 reference in cell F32.)

Just remember to undo this work around for tomorrow.

[James48843]

You could "fake" it by typing in what yesterdays share prices should have been in S4 reference of cell G30. Instead of =F32-S4 it would look like =F32-25.40. (Also make the same change to the S4 reference in cell F32.)



Whoa..nelly!

Sorry- beyond my techincal ability. :confused:

Since I don't know what yesterday's share price would have been (Japan was closed, and I didn't look at 11:38 yesterday), I am simply lost.

How about you tell me how many cents it WOULD have been down yesterday, and then we subtract it from whatever positive number pops up today? That might be easier for me to figure out. :blink:

You say you think it would have been 25.40? So it would have been a decline of .18 cents yesterday?

So we should show today -- a minus .18 cents, and a plus .06 cents for today, or a net loss of .12.

Right?

[dell]

I am having trouble logging into TSP this morning. It keeps telling me I am entering incorrect log-in information.

Anyone else having a problem?

Dell

[Wrngway]

I am having trouble logging into TSP this morning. It keeps telling me I am entering incorrect log-in information.

Anyone else having a problem?

Dell

Are you using your new account number? They're required starting today.

[Aspiration]

I am having trouble logging into TSP this morning. It keeps telling me I am entering incorrect log-in information.

Anyone else having a problem?

Dell

You need to use the new TSP account # you were mailed by TSP in the last month. TSP no longer uses Social Security numbers.

[darwat]

Yes. I could not log in as well. So now I have to wait until they send me my account number so I can make an IFT!!

[dell]

I do not recall receiving a letter from TSP, although I have been tdy in Washington for several months. My wife who is still in Atlanta is pretty good about saving the mail for when I get home.

Advice?

[Aviator_Guy]

I would recommend just giving the TSP a call if you want to make an IFT. They might make an exception if you havent received it in the mail, good luck...:cool::cool:

TSP 877-968-3778

[Robo5555]

Yes. I could not log in as well. So now I have to wait until they send me my account number so I can make an IFT!!

I just went into my account with the new account number....no problems.

[James48843]

As of this morning you have to use your 13 digit TSP account number they mailed out.

According to people on this board, it looks like quite a few people didn't receive it, or didn't see it when it came in. (It looked like a small blue envelope- appearance much like junk mail, some people said it looked like a "net-flixs" or "best buy coupon" cardboard mailer).

You can still use the thriftline to make moves.

My suggestion would be to use the thirftline, and also call them and ask for a new number to be sent, but it will take a while for you to get it.

I presume if just 5% of the TSP account holders did not receive their account number in the mail, that would equate to somewhere around 150,000 people, and if just 10% of those are calling in the next couple days asking to get a number mailed to them, and to make a trade, that the TSP thriftline is going to get REALLY bogged down.

We did a whole 'nother thread that deals only with this topic-

See the thread at:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=4708

[Nimrod1193]

If I'm reading the spreadsheet right, we are currently +10 cents from yesterday's close, for a net -8 cents.

[Robo5555]

If I'm reading the spreadsheet right, we are currently +10 cents from yesterday's close, for a net -8 cents.

Thx for the update Nimrod.

[Nimrod1193]

The closing time for the I-fund is 11:30 EDT, correct?

[Robo5555]

The closing time for the I-fund is 11:30 EDT, correct?

Thats correct sir. After that possible FV applies.

[Nimrod1193]

Currently +14 cents from yesterday's close, for a net -4 cents

[mayday]

Anyone notice the dollar is falling in the last half hour.

[James48843]

Currently up +.18, minus the - .16 equals a plus +.02

[Nimrod1193]

@ 11:30 EDT

+.19 from yesterday's close for a net +.01

[Minnow]

alright... it's been way too quiet in here today and I've been entertained by the sick leave discussions as well... but I need my "I" fund call from 350z the greenback did OK vs. the yen but poorly vs. the euro, right?

[James48843]

Net plus .01 sounds about right to me. I was showing a new plus .02 at about that time, so it's close either way.

[Minnow]

thanks James... dollar being mixed against other foreign currencies didn't help the I at all, huh?

[Nimrod1193]

Net plus .01 sounds about right to me. I was showing a new plus .02 at about that time, so it's close either way.

You were subtracting .16 for yesterday instead of .18

[weatherweenie]

Looks like there will be a +FV in the I fund tonight.

[weatherweenie]

Eafe +0.71%

[ebbnflow]

Final MSCI EAFE = +.71%

We're even from Monday (-.71%) and Tuesday (+.71%).

[PonyBoy]

Has anyone seen this on http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/Nikkei+1,103.68+6.47%18,168.72

Is this correct?

[350zCommTech]

Might be a 15 cents +FV.

[vol46]

I believed they just goofed. Should be 17,159

[James48843]

Has anyone seen this on http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/Nikkei+1,103.68+6.47%18,168.72

Is this correct?

No.

Must be a typo on CNN.

Yahoo is showing Nikkei 225 climbed just 0.06% last night, and is at 17,159. And the Nikkei 300, which is what "I" contains, only went up 0.07% last night.

the finance news headlines are consistent with the Yahoo numbers, not the CNN number you state.

Sorry.

[airlift]

Great!
Now we can ride the gravy train!

QUOTE=ebbnflow;121516]Final MSCI EAFE = +.71%

We're even from Monday (-.71%) and Tuesday (+.71%).[/QUOTE]

[weatherweenie]

G 12.15 unch
F 11.57 unch
C 17.57 +0.09
S 21.27 +0.09
I 25.73 +0.15

[12%ayear]

fv+.15 cents

[12%ayear]

Great!
Now we can ride the gravy train!

QUOTE=ebbnflow;121516]Final MSCI EAFE = +.71%

We're even from Monday (-.71%) and Tuesday (+.71%).[/quote]
no...+.58% for the two day combo........=+.15 fv

[350zCommTech]

Might be a 15 cents +FV.


G 12.15 unch
F 11.57 unch
C 17.57 +0.09
S 21.27 +0.09
I 25.73 +0.15


fv+.15 cents

The gains for the C & S don't look right.

[weatherweenie]

On Oct 5th the C fund was 17.48, the S fund was 21.18


The gains for the C & S don't look right.

[12%ayear]

The gains for the C & S don't look right.
They are correct, do not forget they were down yesterday and up today. I think they were both down .30% yesterday..BTW nice job nailing the +fv to the T.

[Nimrod1193]

Final MSCI EAFE = +.71%

We're even from Monday (-.71%) and Tuesday (+.71%).

So at what time do you check ChemEng's chart to get the final number? At 11:30 EDT it has us at +.01 for the two-day period.

[350zCommTech]

On Oct 5th the C fund was 17.48, the S fund was 21.18

LOL!!! Crap! I forgot about yesterday...:D


They are correct, do not forget they were down yesterday and up today. I think they were both down .30% yesterday..BTW nice job nailing the +fv to the T.

Thanks 12%.

[Griffin]

That would make it a +.586 FV for today - that seems reasonable

[ebbnflow]

So at what time do you check ChemEng's chart to get the final number? At 11:30 EDT it has us at +.01 for the two-day period.

Both days were from:

http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/stdindex/performance.jsp

You can check after 2:30 or 3:00 PM EST.

When you get to the site, change the calendar date to today's date then click on the search button.

Look for EAFE under Day. :)

[Robo5555]

.15 cents....not bad for a day that started in the red.

[Robo5555]

Looks like a good start for Wed. Japan is up .32% so far!!

[Guest2]

I want to learn more about "Fair Valuation". Any links come to mind?:confused:

[Robo5555]

I want to learn more about "Fair Valuation". Any links come to mind?:confused:

Look on this thread but for the month of Sept. A lot of good info on FV.

[Robo5555]

What are you looking for on FV?

[Guest2]

Look on this thread but for the month of Sept. A lot of good info on FV.

Thanks, I certainly appreciate the suggestion.;)
I'm oblivious to anything concerning the term.
Study,,,,Study,,,Study

[Robo5555]

The easiest way to explain it is....the I fund closes at 11:30 EST and the US markets at 4 PM EST. During the 4 1/2 hour lagg (11:30 to 4) the market moves up or down. If the move reaches a certain percent...about .5% from the 11:30 price then they will adjust the price of the I fund taking into consideration the .5% or more move. That way the I fund will reflect the full US market impact. Hope this is clear as mud...

[Griffin]

I want to learn more about "Fair Valuation". Any links come to mind?:confused:

We seperated out a couple of conversations that expalin the FV process for exactly this purpose:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3868

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3111

[James48843]

CAC, DAX, FSTE and Japan barely budged- a mixed market this morning.

All make it look like a pretty flat open and probable flat day ahead.

[mayday]

CAC, DAX, FSTE and Japan barely budged- a mixed market this morning.

All make it look like a pretty flat open and probable flat day ahead.

Pre-option expiration week pullback.

[Nimrod1193]

CAC, DAX, FSTE and Japan barely budged- a mixed market this morning.

All make it look like a pretty flat open and probable flat day ahead.

The falling dollar seems to be helping out though.

[James48843]

Yes, dollar is getting hit pretty good right now.

First run of the spreadsheet this morning shows +.01 for the stocks, plus .09 for the falling dollar, equals a postive ten cents so far, as of 8:47 am.

[Robo5555]

A dime up is a good start. Anytime we start on the green is good.

[Robo5555]

Holiday quarter plus election year coming....might be a great time to be invested in stocks!

[12%ayear]

http://smiliesftw.com/x/koolaid.gif (http://smiliesftw.com/) not looking too bad....watch for some+fv this afternoon IMO

[James48843]

Now showing a plus .07.

However, I am forgetting that we had a FV yesterday. Wasn't it a .15 cent FV? If so, then we are actually in the hole today.

[12%ayear]

Now showing a plus .07.

However, I am forgetting that we had a FV yesterday. Wasn't it a .15 cent FV? If so, then we are actually in the hole today.
yes down a net 8 cents..However; watch how we close green. Went to the G Fund for Thursday..thinking some +fv this afternoon
http://smiliesftw.com/x/koolaid.gif (http://smiliesftw.com/)

[Minnow]

Hey 350, anything extremely significant gonna come out of the BOJ meeting, in your opinion?

[budnipper1]

Hey 350, anything extremely significant gonna come out of the BOJ meeting, in your opinion?
Paulson talking on CNBC right now.

[350zCommTech]

Hey 350, anything extremely significant gonna come out of the BOJ meeting, in your opinion?


No, they will hold as expected. Should be good news for the Nikkei.

[Minnow]

Paulson talking on CNBC right now.

Thanks bud, don't have a TV here -- did he pretty much say what 350 just said?

"No, they will hold as expected. Should be good news for the Nikkei."

I'm thinking the "I" looks pretty tasty for Thurs. and Fri. even with the G probably paying on Thurs.

Anyone seeing any pitfalls in the "I" closing out the week?

[350zCommTech]

I'm thinking the "I" looks pretty tasty for Thurs. and Fri. even with the G probably paying on Thurs.

Anyone seeing any pitfalls in the "I" closing out the week?

G should pay tonight.

[Frixxxx]

Anyone seeing any pitfalls in the "I" closing out the week?

I'm in the same ocean with ya minnow!:cool: "I" all the way!

[Minnow]

G should pay tonight.

Oops! I think I made this G mistake the last time we had a holiday and the holiday had nothing to do with it, right? -- gotta read that G fund thread more closely next time.

I still see the "I" looking good Thursday and Friday just based on the economic calendar.

[budnipper1]

Thanks bud, don't have a TV here -- did he pretty much say what 350 just said?

"No, they will hold as expected. Should be good news for the Nikkei."

I'm thinking the "I" looks pretty tasty for Thurs. and Fri. even with the G probably paying on Thurs.

Anyone seeing any pitfalls in the "I" closing out the week?
He didn't talk as long as I expected, but he was speaking positively, about steps being put in place to "aid", or help prevent mortgage foreclosures relative to the sub-prime problems.

[Minnow]

I'm in the same ocean with ya minnow!:cool: "I" all the way!

Frixxxx! long time no talk great to hear from ya! -- I just don't see anything in the upcoming reports rattling us (not trying to jinx anyone here) -- It seems that even bad news is good news here lately and I'm OK with that for the time being. What's your take on the OSMs short-term?

[Frixxxx]

Frixxxx! long time no talk great to hear from ya! -- I just don't see anything in the upcoming reports rattling us (not trying to jinx anyone here) -- It seems that even bad news is good news here lately and I'm OK with that for the time being. What's your take on the OSMs short-term?

I don't know...looks like Chrysler employees are walking:suspicious:!
I hate it when people can't talk!...

We'll See:cool:

[Nimrod1193]

@ 11:17 Edt

+.10 -.15fvc = -.05

[Minnow]

He didn't talk as long as I expected, but he was speaking positively, about steps being put in place to "aid", or help prevent mortgage foreclosures relative to the sub-prime problems.

Thanks bud, So good news is good news as well. Looks like the markets are perking up as well. And now we'll be good ticker watchers and wait for the 11:30 quote.

[Frixxxx]

Thanks bud, So good news is good news as well. Looks like the markets are perking up as well. And now we'll be good ticker watchers and wait for the 11:30 quote.


I don't know...looks like Chrysler employees are walking:suspicious:!
I hate it when people can't talk!...

We'll See:cool:


See more Good news!:cool:

[350zCommTech]

Down 2 cents today.

[Nimrod1193]

Down 2 cents today.

Not bad at all. :)

[James48843]

Oh-oh.

What just happened?

S fund looks like it's tanking.

[12%ayear]

so far no additional -fv....I still think markets will crawl back.

[Boxholder]

As long as this doesn't snowball in the afternoon hours, this may be very healthy for the market. But once it goes over 200 points down, we may be in for a few days of "deer in the headlights" affect. I think the market is just saying "don't get too greedy".

[fabijo]

Oh-oh.

What just happened?

S fund looks like it's tanking.

:D
Thanks again, James!

[weatherweenie]

eafe +0.46%

[weatherweenie]

In the green now. That's 2 days running for the James reverse jinx. :D


Oh-oh.

What just happened?

S fund looks like it's tanking.

[Minnow]

In the green now. That's 2 days running for the James reverse jinx. :D

Does that make James a "market mover?":cheesy:

[Frixxxx]

Oh-oh.

What just happened?

S fund looks like it's tanking.


S coming back from the dead....C may get to "greener" pastures before its over!:cool:

[Removed1]

S coming back from the dead....C may get to "greener" pastures before its over!:cool:
350Z... do you see +fv today? TY

[Frixxxx]

350Z... do you see +fv today? TY

I see a -.15 FV:cool:

[Minnow]

Yeah, pretty much has to be a -fv today after yesterday.

Someone feel free to correct me if I have made a false statement.

[Removed1]

I see a -.15 FV:cool:
yes ,that carries over from yesterday,but I just wonder the come back of C and S enough to ignite another fv for today? ty