Transfer 9/23 for 9/24/04

[tsptalk]

I went 100% S fund. This will be effective Friday morning.

tsptalk wrote:
I went 100% S fund. This will be effective Friday morning.
100% G fund since 21 Sep.

Do not want to get in front of this report that comes out tomorrow. With the rising inventory rates and the warnings of shipment...want to be on the defensive and let Mr Market tell us when to dabble again.

Dr. Bill

Durable Goods Orders

Importance (A-F): This release merits a B.
Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.
Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 26th of the month (data for month prior).
Raw Data Available At: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm (http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm).
The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as goods whose intended lifespan is three years or more). Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it a less than perfect indicator. These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders. An increase based solely on strength in one sector tends to be discounted, while the market is more impressed with broadbased increases in orders.
Also notable in this report is the narrow category of nondefense capital goods. These goods mirror the GDP category producers' durable equipment (PDE) -- the largest component of business investment. Shipments of nondefense capital goods are a good proxy for PDE in the current quarter, while nondefense capital goods orders provide an indication of PDE growth in the quarters ahead.

[Spaf]

tsptalk wrote:
I went 100% S fund. This will be effective Friday morning.


Why are U going to the S fund? I don't understand.

[puertorico]

:s:s:s:s:s

good luck...:shock:

I think he is on tilt. It is best the S fund get crushed today and bounces tomorrow for him. However, I do not think anyone wants to be heavy in stocks over the weekend. All ways dangerous to sell on Fridays for this reason.

Will be interesting to read his comments for this move!
MT



Spaf wrote:

tsptalk wrote:
I went 100% S fund. This will be effective Friday morning.


Why are U going to the S fund? I don't understand.

[puertorico]

I want to see it, like when u waiting for the boxing-match

Hope u gave it...:D

THis is getting interesting...:^

...go Tom ,GO TOM..:D

[cowboy]

mmmmmm? Tom has been typically quick in this market by several days, market may not move that fast. Maybe down again Friday to 1095. Maybe Monday play again. :^

Go Tom! Go!

GoNamor! Go!

Down trend very risky but there is money to be made or lost!

[TheProphet]

http://www.geocities.com/earn100kplus/TSP.html?1095858478156

[tsptalk]

Spaf wrote:
Why are U going to the S fund? I don't understand.

Being aggressive.

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote:
I want to see it, like when u waiting for the boxing-match

Hope u gave it...:D

THis is getting interesting...:^

...go Tom ,GO TOM..:D

I wish I saw your "falling knife" post earlier. I respect your judgement.

[tsptalk]

cowboy wrote:
mmmmmm? Tom has been typically quick in this market by several days, market may not move that fast.

So true. I am usually early to the party.You are wise cowboy. So much for my patience. :) I just think the downside risk is limited. It still may take a week or more to muddle through this however. I just don't want to miss the dance. If we get a big move upward late one day, we wouldn't be able to get back in for two days (because of the deadline). If I was more bearish I'd be more concerned about preserving capital. Now I'm concerned about missing rallies.

I wish I saw this earlier. Bulls 51%, bears 27%. That shocks me. Maybe I am premature.

[cowboy]

Oh!!OH! :s Not a good sign when bulls strong, but I don't think its a bad move the market will breath some and maybe give you some coin!! Play it short though. I'm thinking this market is going to give you and Namor .03 to .06 cents or take you for .10 or so tomorrow. If you lose the .10 cents stick it out till Monday when it may give it all back. I'm thinking like MT the C fund is a weak fund it dropped below it's 30 day average and usually the other 2 follow it down but not without breathing some. If the market is up 10 cents tomorrow I would take it and head for your burrow and be happy. I was watching the I fund and figured if that would drop to the 13.25 - 13.15 value on Friday thenI would buy and hope it bounced on Monday.If I don't like the markets on Friday I'll wait for next week. The trend is now downand harder to play then when it is climbing. If it doesn't feel good I may wait til Oct. 7th when MT thinks the bottum will be in! :^

[tsptalk]

Yes, that 27% bears is disturbing. I am seriously considering stepping aside again today. I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but that 27% and the end of September weakness is a good reason to. It won't be 100% G because of my bullish "discipline". Since I am still very bullish over the intermediate term (3 to 6 months) I won't go below 50% stocks right now.

Obviously we are seeing a little bounce this morning and as you mention cowboy, I should be happy with that (if it holds). I will post any changeas soon as Idecide. Probably closer to the deadline.

[cowboy]

I was looking at the markets and NFC, TSP center is going to be down from 12:00 today till 12:00 Monday. I was going to jump into the I along with Namor as I looks to be going to make a move but now will not be able to pull out till Tuesday may not be good, will watch the markets as you have to be in two days.

cowboy wrote:
Oh!!OH! :s Not a good sign when bulls strong, but I don't think its a bad move the market will breath some and maybe give you some coin!! Play it short though. I'm thinking this market is going to give you and Namor .03 to .06 cents or take you for .10 or so tomorrow. If you lose the .10 cents stick it out till Monday when it may give it all back. I'm thinking like MT the C fund is a weak fund it dropped below it's 30 day average and usually the other 2 follow it down but not without breathing some. If the market is up 10 cents tomorrow I would take it and head for your burrow and be happy. I was watching the I fund and figured if that would drop to the 13.25 - 13.15 value on Friday thenI would buy and hope it bounced on Monday.If I don't like the markets on Friday I'll wait for next week. The trend is now downand harder to play then when it is climbing. If it doesn't feel good I may wait til Oct. 7th when MT thinks the bottum will be in! :^
Cowboy,

Appreciate your comments (you are talking my lingo :cool:). I want to see the damage next week andhow the first debate goes. I am glad you are not losing money now. C fund is acting like crap right now. Sfundis not far behind. Stay away from the I Fund, my friend. The job report (my guess) is going to be light and the I fund will sell off on Monday.

Be patient...this market will rip off a limb if you let it.

MT

Cowboy,

Just be patient. I reread your post and you need just to relax and wait. The last uptrend was so hard and fast (that start mid Aug) because the previous downturn was bloody that started early Jul.

Look at Jul to mid Aug...that was a bad time to be in the market (right Tom? :P).

Bear market - lower highs and lower lows - people keep getting sucked in with this sideways downtrend crap. I believe we are looking at a 2000 type market and the ball will drop off the table around lateJan 2005.

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/_/_ixic.gif

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
I believe we are looking at a 2000 type market and the ball will drop off the table around lateJan 2005.

2000? This market is nothing like 2000. The market is undervalued. The economy is not smoking, but it is strengthening. In 2000, when the Nasdaq was 5000, we had problems.

tsptalk wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
I believe we are looking at a 2000 type market and the ball will drop off the table around lateJan 2005.



2000? This market is nothing like 2000. The market is undervalued. The economy is not smoking, but it is strengthening. In 2000, when the Nasdaq was 5000, we had problems.
Tom,

If options on stocks get charged as a one time expense next year the average PEs of the tech stocks will be over 781. Lucent, Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, Dell, etc, etc have more options then the float.

Colgate got smoked last week and still have a pe 17.