FundSurfer account talk

[FundSurfer]

Today I'm 50% G, 40% C, 5% S, and 5% I.

(I was 77% C, 11.5% S, 11.5% I since end of June and actually made this switch 9/20, but for purposes of tracking and not Monday Quarterbacking I'll track my gains/loss from today forward. I wish I'd gone 100% G like so many others but I wasn't totally confident. I guess more time will help my comfort level. So far I've done well with just a peaks and valleys long term type approach. It hasn't worked well in this choppy market and I'm moving toward being more aggressive.)

[namor]

Thanks for the plug.

I hope nobody took my advice in October. That second week made the whole month like trying to climb out of the Grand Canyon. But, luckily, the market never stops trading, we will always have next week to look forward to.

Good luck in November.

[FundSurfer]

Yeah you got caught in a bad place for 3-4 days and it killed your month. Have you managed to bail yourself out? I haven't had time to enter in moves to see where everyone is for the month.

[FundSurfer]

Moved to 30%G, 30% C, 30% S. The I fund had a couple down days after a long run up, time for me to bail. I'll get back in fairly quickly once this trend ends. I'll probably miss a bounce but I'm sticking to what my system is telling me.... now I'll sound like Milk_Man.

FundSurfer wrote:
Moved to 30%G, 30% C, 30% S. The I fund had a couple down days after a long run up, time for me to bail. I'll get back in fairly quickly once this trend ends. I'll probably miss a bounce but I'm sticking to what my system is telling me.... now I'll sound like Milk_Man.
Is that a bad thing? :shock:It is a variation of my old system right? :P

Good luck,

M_M

FundSurfer wrote:
Moved to 30%G, 30% C, 30% S. The I fund had a couple down days after a long run up, time for me to bail. I'll get back in fairly quickly once this trend ends. I'll probably miss a bounce but I'm sticking to what my system is telling me.... now I'll sound like Milk_Man.
Is that a bad thing? :shock:It is a variation of my old system right? :P

Good luck,

M_M

[FundSurfer]

Yes, variation on your old system. No I don't think it is a bad thing, but I did think it was funny when I wrote it. :>

[FundSurfer]

Just pulled the trigger to go to 100%S. My justification is that S fund looks like it is going to have a big down day today. I think that this is too early in the month for a market slide to begin. I think a bounce will occur tommorrow and that the biggest bounce will be S fund. A drop of greater than 1% in a Bull market gives my indicators a buy. Right now S is down >1%. Don't know if it will hold for the day.

I've seen Namor do this on many occasions and be a winner (a couple losers but mainly winners).

[puertorico]

agree tomorrow a good rally I bet on S too :D.
after a sell off = rally...:^

[retiredcg]

Fundsurfer -

What is you prognostication for the I fund over the next day or so? Is it common for the EAFE to follow the same trend as the S - generally? I took a quick glance over the last year or so at the end of month/beginning of month periods. I see that with the exception of one month, the I fund showed a fair gain each time... I moved my remaining 20G into the I for the next few days... I'm now 25C, 25S and 50I.

I've been buy and hold for some time, but I'd like to do some more frequent moves...

Jim

[FundSurfer]

The dollar is up, thus the I-fund is down. Rumors about Japan trying to make moves to stabilize the dollar would act to strenghten dollar (or at least slow decline) adds to much chance for error for me. I will add that those who have gambled on the I-fund have been well rewarded of late. I like a little more confidence in my 'bets'. I have mixed feelings about I-fund thus I'm staying away. I will say that today is a good day to buy Ifor long term hold though.

[cowboy]

retiredcg wrote:
Fundsurfer -

What is you prognostication for the I fund over the next day or so? Is it common for the EAFE to follow the same trend as the S - generally? I took a quick glance over the last year or so at the end of month/beginning of month periods. I see that with the exception of one month, the I fund showed a fair gain each time... I moved my remaining 20G into the I for the next few days... I'm now 25C, 25S and 50I.

I've been buy and hold for some time, but I'd like to do some more frequent moves...

Jim

My thought is the I fund will drop tomorrow and maybe even the S & C funds also as were at the top of the hill and now we will be going down until it hits the new support level. Good luck everyone!

[Safetyguy]

cowboy wrote:
My thought is the I fund will drop tomorrow and maybe even the S & C funds also as were at the top of the hill and now we will be going down until it hits the new support level. Good luck everyone!

I think what Fundsurfer is trying to do is to catch the "chop" which will occur whether or not the overall trend is upward or downward. The theory is to buy when the price dips and sell when it is high. (Namor hit a good one in December.)

For instance let's say it is a downward trend as Cowboy assumes -- it still doesn't matter. There will be someonewho will snap up the "bargain" on day 2AFTER a big price drop on day 1. This will bring the price up (but maybe not has high as it was on day 1.)This is why the chart lines wiggle.

In this particular case, if Fundsurfer buys S on Day 1 at 98.42% (a decline of 1.58%) of the price that existed the trading day before AND it goes up 1% on Day 2, he made 1% on his money. This is the whole theory on day trading.

[cowboy]

Safetyguy wrote:
cowboy wrote:
My thought is the I fund will drop tomorrow and maybe even the S & C funds also as were at the top of the hill and now we will be going down until it hits the new support level. Good luck everyone!


I think what Fundsurfer is trying to do is to catch the "chop" which will occur whether or not the overall trend is upward or downward. The theory is to buy when the price dips and sell when it is high. (Namor hit a good one in December.)

For instance let's say it is a downward trend as Cowboy assumes -- it still doesn't matter. There will be someonewho will snap up the "bargain" on day 2AFTER a big price drop on day 1. This will bring the price up (but maybe not has high as it was on day 1.)This is why the chart lines wiggle.

In this particular case, if Fundsurfer buys S on Day 1 at 98.42% (a decline of 1.58%) of the price that existed the trading day before AND it goes up 1% on Day 2, he made 1% on his money. This is the whole theory on day trading.
Yes, I know what Fundsurfer is doing. I have done this myself all year long as so many others are doing. I was going to do the same thing today as I pulled out last Wednesday and went 100% F but then I got to thinking about it and it may be a day or two of down before we hit a support. My prognosis was for the I fund not in regard to what Fundsurfer was doing. Patients may be a vertue here for a couple of days but what is going to happen is anybodys guess. Fundsurfer's move was a good one if your playing daily. I would play it short though. This is just my thought. If it drops again tomorrow I may stick some in but I may wait for the F fund to hit $10.45 or better before I make that leap. If S&C go up tomorrow then I will just wait and watch.

[cowboy]

The market is red now guys, what is the move? This is a short move by Fundsurfer what will he do stick or jump? I have played the dips all year and if you get a dip on the uphill climb it most always pays. On the downhill descent it is less likely and much more risky. I still believe we need to see some support somewhere first. Tom your a good chart reader give me a possible support number, please! If S drops the C will fall but maybe not as much. It may be that C may go up tomorrow as it is lagging behind in my opinion. I fund will go down today and possibly stabilize tomorrow. I may make a move today! I believe I will make a 50% S & 50% C move today as there may be support now and the S has dropped over 2 %. I fund will possibly go down again tomorrow. I will try this bounce and hope it works!:^

[Mike]

My analysis in brief:

C: $11.25 / S $11.87 / I $12.80 <- the bottom on August 12th

C: $12.93 / S $14.75 / I $15.47* <- the high on December 30th (I know, the I went up one more penny but I'm trying this for simplicity's sake)

C: +$1.68 / S: +$2.88 / I: +$2.67* <- trough to peak

Yesterday, we lost $0.10 (C), $0.23 (S), and $0.07 (I). Things aren't going well today, either. C will probably lose another $0.10, S another $0.15, and I $0.20 based on the strength of the dollar. This translates into 10-15% losses off the highs... in two days... in spite of very strong seasonality data (ahem, remember July?). I have no crystal ball, I'm not clairvoyant, but I can tell you that this is the "breather" the market has been looking for... it'll probably scare a lot of those bullish people back into the bear camp (particularly the odd lot traders), and that is a very good thing.

[cowboy]

MMmmm! The markets fell for a second straight day. It has been a long time since we seen this possibly July like Mike says. C -1.98% S -3.28% and I -1.38% in the last 2 days. It only took 2 days to lose most all of December profits. :shock:

I went 50% C & 50% S today. I am hoping for some support tomorrow. I am thinking I fund may have more to lose here. It is usually last to follow and I look for it to maybe fall another 1% or more tomorrow or shortly. I'm thinking I fund down to possibly $14.90. If C & S recover then it may take them several days to go up. If the C&S go up and I fund down I may get into the I fund again. I am thinking this as a short term play right at the moment. I have jumped too quickly before and who knows I may be early again. If this market doesn't cooperate I will bail and watch again.

Good luck everyone!

[cowboy]

I am going 100% S today as the C fund is holding and S is dropping at this time and I want to be fully invested in S in case of a rally if not then I will pull out possibly or then go to I fund.

[Mike]

Update on the prices / percentage of gain off August lows given back:

The bottom fell out of the S fund - $0.69 off the high (23.95% of gains lost).

C fund is $0.32 off its high (19.05% of gains given back).

I fund is $0.32 off its high (11.99%).

I'm hoping the pullback ends at 25%... that should scare enough people out.

The I fund is holding up better than the C, which is surprising.

[FundSurfer]

Well I guess I got lucky??? Maybe... day isn't over yet. My trade did not go through yesterday. I knew I was close to the deadline when I made the switch. I'm still 100% S at this point and have to decide if I will cancel or make a switch.

[Mike]

I'd say you were fortunate. I think the S fund will recover some today... and hopefully a lot tomorrow after the jobs report.

[Rod]

Mike wrote:
I think the S fund will recover some today... and hopefully a lot tomorrow after the jobs report.
That's what I'm hoping for! It looks like we got a few pennies today. Hopefully more will come falling from heaven tomorrow!:cool:

God Bless:^

[pyriel]

I hope you guys are right....;)

[FundSurfer]

Well as of tommorrow I'll be 30C 40S 30I so I hope we are starting a new trend up.

[Mike]

Copycat. :P:^

[Skip]

I got to see something other than lower highs to get back in...

All 3 stock funds made a lower high today. But there was some green:cool:
Maybe the bottom ? Time will tell.

Skip

[pyriel]

Mike wrote:
Copycat. :P:^
Geez, I guess you can say the same thing to me. Either I go your route or I go 100I tomorrow. We'll see...

Pyriel

[Mike]

Take your pick:
"Great minds think alike"
-or-
"Three blind mice"

:^

[FundSurfer]

Hey, Mike, I think I had it first....although it didn't actually go through the first time.

[FundSurfer]

Trying out a new Avitar!

(THANKS W_W!) :cool:

[Mike]

FundSurfer wrote:
Hey, Mike, I think I had it first....although it didn't actually go through the first time.

My short term memory is spotty, and I don't remember reading about that allocation from you before I made mine, so mine counts as an original idea. :^

Memory loss is a wonderful thing. It allows you to forget bad dates, bad work experiences, bad market conditions... :D

[pyriel]

FundSurfer wrote:
Trying out a new Avitar!

(THANKS W_W!) :cool:
I really like your Avitar.

[FundSurfer]

Switching to 40 C - 30 S - 30 I effective COB. Looks like we are bouncing back. I don't know how long this will last so I will be bailing quickly if needed.

I haven't done well here lately, so maybe this is a signal to the rest of you to switch to G. :D

Parabolic SAR should give a buy signal today if today's trend continues.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=p&a=&c]http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=p&a=&c

[FundSurfer]

How in the heck does this board do links? You'd think it would be easier than this.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=p&a=&c

[FundSurfer]

Going to 50%F 50%C for tommorrow (as of COB). My thought is that we'll see a slight pull back following todays jump. I just hope it holds till COB. I'll probably get fully invested following a slight pull back.

WARNING: I'm also the guy who went to 100% S for 1/4 thinking there would be a bounce...boy was that dumb.

[vectorman]

FundSurfer wrote:
How in the heck does this board do links? You'd think it would be easier than this.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=p&a=&c



Try right clicking on the link you want to use.Click on copy, then paste in with your reply.:^

[FundSurfer]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=p&a=&c

[FundSurfer]

nope....

[pyriel]

Fund, I was going 100g yesterday to get that penny from g (today) but decided to go 50c50s because I am hoping that c/s will tank today(which would be a good day to buy). We'll see what happens. It seems like the market is starting in the negative.

Pyriel

[FundSurfer]

Moving to 75% G & 25% I. Seems many others have moved in that direction as well. I had some in F but that fund is headed in the wrong direction so I'm moving my F to G and moving my C to I. It is hard to argue against the I-fund right now. It might have a short drop but I had a friend who got recommended to get into foriegn market mutual fund as part of an IRA investment. My guess is that the foriegn market funds did well last year and when people look at last years performance to decide where to put IRA contributions, many more than usual will jump into the foriegn markets. Maybe this will explain the trend a little. Anyway, I'm not going to argue with a wave, just try and catch part of it.

[mlk_man]

Hiya FundSurfer, welcome back to the world of "being tracked". Good luck with that new "system". :)

Why is this thread so wide?

M_M

[FundSurfer]

Have no idea on the width. I didn't notice anything different.

Kind of hard to get used to posting in two places. Life used to be simpler.

Onward and upward!

[FundSurfer]

.... must come down....

Had some nice gains since 12/30, time to retreat to safety.

If you look at days of the week, Mondays are the weakest. I think investors digest what happened last week and take some profits on Monday.

100% G as of COB 1/6

I think this trend will continue and will not likely be on sidelines long.

[FundSurfer]

Moved to 50%G, 25%C, 25%S.

See comments in account thread.

[mlk_man]

FS, you're suppose to make comments here and not in the other..........:rolleyes:

Silly goose............:p

[FundSurfer]

I-fund closed 1/26 at 18.45 and I expect it to close over 18.5 for today. The I-fund has a slight positive bias from yesterday late plus a positive for today. That should surpass my target of 18.5. I-fund could keep going but I'm following my system - what goes up will come down. A target to get back in would be for the fund to fall below 18.3 and then show a positive day. Dollar has been on the rise last couple days in anticipation of fed move probably. I'll wait.

S-fund closed at 17.18. My target was 17.4. I've revised that target to 17.3. Based on 11:00 estimate, if we closed right now we would be at 17.27. Very close to my estimate. Add to that the Monday negative bias and the fact the G-fund should pay Monday or Tuesday and that spells sell. I will wait for the fund to drop back to 17 before getting back in after positive day following a drop.

100% G as of COB 1/27.

Milkman - I was in heap big hurry, had to go. You got cohonnes going into S-fund on up Friday. I thought that was against your system?

[mlk_man]

Not against my system at all. Never has been as far as I know.........

The days not over yet either...........:eek:

OH, and yes I do............:p

Good luck,

M_M

[FundSurfer]

I said target of 18.3 for I and 17 for S. I didn't say a target for C but my target for C has been reached. However, I'm not jumping under a falling knife trying to guess a bottom. Got too many burn marks that have taught me a lesson for that. I'll move into C-fund if it begins moving up. A bunch of analysis are touting Large Caps as the place to be because they have all gotten better P/E ratios than they have had for a long time and have scaled back their debt from the low interest rates the past few years. C-fund is lagging and well over due. I think I-fund is also a good place to be after a little more pullback. Might get back into all three funds next week if we see an end to the drop.

For now I'm sticking to 100% G.

[FundSurfer]

All my targets have been met looking for a sign the downward movement is over before jumping in. I'd like to see a couple up or sideways days as a signal, but my trigger is getting ichy. I usually get burned when I anticipate too much.

Time will tell if I feel lucky...:D

[FundSurfer]

I'm back in but on shaky ground. I will bail to G quickly if we don't get some bounce. This morning it looked like a solid up day. The late day down turn turned today to be slightly negative which isn't too bad, but I'd rather see some positive upward movement. I'll give it a few days unless the market drops like a rock.

[Wizard]

Today was a reversal day. :)

[FundSurfer]

My targets for CSI are $14.10, $17.30, and $18.70 in the short term, long term C&S down through March, I-fund who knows? The C&S are currently $14.01 and $17.18 and showing weakness. The I-fund is moving into a stall because dollar is moving upward at a rate similar to foriegn markets. When this happens, I'm not confident of a move up from here. I've decided to bail to G&F because C&S are close to the target and it looks like the market could pause. I'll watch for signs of life in the I-fund and get back into I-fund then since it has the most to gain at this point (probably when the dollar uptrend turns around). I'm in F as well as G because the anticipated rate hikes may have a positive effect and the F-fund is over due.

[FundSurfer]

I said I was watching for signs of life in I-fund. Yesterday was positive, today looks positive as well. I'm not totally convinced yet which is why I'm going 50% G, 50% I. I'll increase my I-fund again tommorrow if it continues up. My target for I-fund would be $18.70 and then bail at weakness.

[FundSurfer]

I moved all in to the I-fund. I'm seeing more postive signs I was looking for. The dollar looks to be slowing and needs a rest, today might actually show dollar index down. A couple positives in a row and the best technicals in terms of up potiential. I am all in for the I-fund. 100% I.

[FundSurfer]

The S-fund currently has room to move upward in addition to the I-fund. In fact the S-fund may even have a little more room to go up. I'm staying away from the C-fund since it is at the upper end of the trading range. It may go higher but should head lower soon to present better buying opportunity. I've attached graphs that I hope will show what I'm looking at. I'm targeting the I-fund for $18.75 and will exit following weakness. The S-fund, I'm targeting $17.6 and will exit following weakness. Regardless, a sharp downward move in either fund will also cause me to bail to G.

If you do the math, the upward for S is about 1.5% and for I is about 0.8%. I'm staying heavier in the I-fund because I think the dollar is set for a drop which could really push I-fund as high as $19 which would be a 2% gain over current level.

[Fivetears]

I think I'm finally beginning to understand these charts. Yours seem much easier to read for some reason; less clutter I guess. Do these charts also correlate with the "over-bought" and "over-sold" conditions mentioned throughout TSPtalk?

[FundSurfer]

I don't look at "overbought" or "oversold"as Tom talks about it. I look at the fact that a fund will cycle up and down through a trading range. Looking at the cycle, when the chart gets toward the top of the range as it is with the C-fund currently, I'd consider that risky territory. Funds do break out of trading ranges so you have to be careful. In the case of C-fund, if I was in the fund I would ride the fund up and look for weakness as an indicator to bail out to G. I also look for strong upward for multiple days as another signal. I might get in at that point depending on where the other funds were. The same can be true of going down. A couple strong days down and I'll bail to G quickly. Once we break out of the trend, I'll watch for the next trend to form.

[FundSurfer]

Todays big move down in S-fund is strike one. Another move down tommorrow and I'll bail. I did not want to bail today and miss a bounce back up. My system calls for multiple days weakness, although today looks to be a major move.

I-fund looks mixed because international stocks are down but the dollar looks to also be falling. Those could end up cancelling each other out. Tommorrow could be very good for the I-fund if dollar continues to fall and international stocks bounce.

I'm staying put at 40% S and 60% I.

[FundSurfer]

I-fund reached the target I was shooting for just prior to drop yesterday. Looks like it might get back there today. Dollar direction isn't clear so I'm moving to safety of G with my I-funds. The S-fund still has room to go but I'm still watching very closely. If it closes down today or tommorrow, I'll assume dead cat bounce and bail out of it as well. I stuck 10% in C fund because I keep hearing how under valued the S&P is from different areas and it has a fairly steady trend going. I'm watching it closely as well since it could easily go above it's trading cycle and be in uncharted territory.

50% G 10%C 40% S

[Fivetears]

...dead cat bounce and bail out...LMAO! :D
Looks like that cat ate a bucket of superballs; gotta pretty good bounce. :D

[FundSurfer]

I-fund and C-fund seem close to the top of their trading ranges. I had S-fund at mid range but I can think a change in trading range may be forming which would put S at top of range. Also since I think C and I are high possible for going down, they would likely drag S with them. Safety on the sidelines until the murkyness clears. Also, I think that traders try to anticipate a move down like last year in March which means you have to anticipate the anticipators. Last year had a big move down a couple weeks into March. Add to this that several people on this board whose opinion I value are also moving toward more conservative positions, and that add up to a move to G.

I put 50% into F because I think it is more likely to go up on Monday than not. Have to admit this isn't a system move for F since it hasn't been be having well lately but rather a guess... :eek:

[FundSurfer]

Basically the funds have dropped to the bottom of the trading range and then showed some positive signs. I'm being a little more aggressive than I probably should. I'd like to see a couple days of positive signs (which C did show). In retrospect, I probably should have waited since the S-fund only had one positive day and the I-fund should be positive today. Today's down day could mean a further slide negative. I can't complain too much because I did step aside just in time to avoid this last big drop and thus can afford to be a little agressive getting back in.

I've attached a graph showing the trading ranges I'm looking at.

[Fivetears]

I saw on one of your posts you were interested in / waiting for news about this today.
U.S. Treasuries Head for Third Weekly Decline on Concern About Jobs Report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html

[FundSurfer]

Thanks Five Tears... Not sure if that is good news or bad for I-fund. If it keeps the dollar moving up that will hurt the I-fund.

I'm moving out of F-fund because I may have limited access to internet next week. I therefore went to a very diverse in stocks position. The market may go down some more but I've already avoided over a percent loss in this move so I'm counting myself lucky and getting back in knowing that the market will come back up.

If I have access to the internet, here is what I will do. Two consecutive down days and I'd step aside back to G and wait for positive. To the upside, my targets to get out are $14.15 for C, $17.4 for S, and $18.7 for I. After reaching those targets, I'd bail to G following any weakness. I don't expect to reach those targets next week.

Will be 33C, 33S, 34I at COB Friday.

[FundSurfer]

I expect I to be up today but profit taking to occur also. Target reached. C&S have a ways to go so I'm 50% C & 50% S at COB today/

I'm on dial-up so that's it.

[FundSurfer]

I bailed to G last Friday because it looked like stocks were stalling at the top of the trading channel.

Today I'm going 100% I because of a special case. The foriegn markets are down big at noon and dollar was headed up. This is a double whammy for I-fund negative. Also American markets took off at about 10:30 which is too late for foriegn stocks to react for the day. I expect them to follow the US stocks and rally tommorrow. Admittedly this is a big gamble since this is the I-fund we are talking about. As much as I've followed the I-fund, you'd think I know better but I am actually following the pattern I've seen before. A "fair valuation" could throw things off but we will see.

[FundSurfer]

Surprise, surprise, surprise.....

Foriegn markets turned around late, and dollar also turned around. Could actually be positive day for I-fund. The EFA is pointed up which combined with upward pointed C & S, if continued through the day, will mean a positive bias start to tommorrow. I'd planned to bail to G and accept a loss for a bad gamble but I guess I'll stay another day in the I-fund.

I don't have a target since we are above my trading range. My target is signs of weakness. A day or two of down and I'll quickly bail out of I-fund. We are in uncharted charts.

[mlk_man]

Looking a bit like 2003. :D

[Birchtree]

Ain't it though - starting to feel like it too.

[FundSurfer]

Should have done this yesterday. The market is at the top of a trading range and can't make up its mind if it will go higher or fall back into the range. I thought we might be seeing the market deciding to go higher it looks to be going backward again. I'm moving to G-fund till things become more clear.

Foriegn markets are mixed with slight upside bias. Dollar is headed higher which is bad for I-fund. Since the EFA is headed sharply lower, I'm bailing out and hoping that the impact is felt tommorrow and not today.

100% G @ COB

[Gilligan]

Should have done this yesterday. .... I'm moving to G-fund ...
Don't hit your self over the head. On Wednesday morning I thought the I-fund would close higher on Thursday also, but I didn't want to take the chance and bailed out to the G-fund.

[Rod]

Don't hit your self over the head. On Wednesday morning I thought the I-fund would close higher on Thursday also, but I didn't want to take the chance and bailed out to the G-fund.

Yeah, we all have our good and bad days. Heck, if we could accurately predict the market we would all be super rich!:D

What I like about this site is that the majority of us give one another moral support when needed and don't shove "bad moves" in each other's faces.

ONLY the good ones... that WE make!:p :D

Otherwise, we're a rather swell group of investors.:)

[FundSurfer]

My system has some signals for getting into funds even if at the top of a trading range. They are based on persistant movement which signals Bull moves. I'm getting into S and I because they have triggered and C has not, although if todays gains continue C could trigger as well. Because I'm at the top of a trading range, I will also be quick to exit.

Dollar index shows dollar dropping today and I hope that continues for a few days.

[FundSurfer]

I'm in a funny position and have a hard choice to make. I'm got a sell signal but the target to get back in could be reached today/tommorrow. I've got spotty internet access so I'm inclined to just stay invested and wait it out and not try to time the market too close. I agree with Birchtree that with so many pundits talking bear that is probably contrarian indicator. The problem is how long will the lag last before the switch back to upward.

If I was out of stocks, I'd be getting back in at 14.05 for C, 17.5 for S, and 19.2 for I. I would look for some sign of positive or at least lateral movement before pulling the trigger to make sure we do not slip past support. At this point those will also be my targets for getting out. We pass those points and the market will take us another 1-2% lower before the next support.

Too bad we can't set up automatic stops and buys with tsp.gov. That would be cool. Oh well. I'm still 50%S and 50% I, hoping the bleeding stops soon.

[FundSurfer]

We are at the bottom of all trading channels for stocks. CS & I all look to rebound this week if the trend is to continue. I missed getting out at the top and rode the trend down but I'm hoping for a rebound and for the trend to continue. See attached charts for trends.

The trends are not all the same. The C fund has been gaining $0.04 per week average since November; S fund has been gaining at $0.10 per week average for a little over a month and I-fund has been gaining at $0.19 per week for a little over a month. I don't expect the S&I to continue doing this long but I'm gonna ride the wave as long as possible.

If any fund breaks the trend, I'm bailing quickly.

I'm sticking with 50% S and 50% I. I may more more into I-fund to 75%I and 25%S if rebound becomes more obvious.

[FundSurfer]

I've attached a graph of each of the funds and the trading range. All funds went back to previous highs. From here to the top of the trading range, anywhere a drop could happen. Upper end targets would be $14.35 for C, $18.2 for S, and $20.10 for I.

At this point, I'm looking for a sign of weakness as a signal to bail back to G-fund. I think we may set new highs through the next day or so before falling back.

I'm not touching F-fund, it isn't worth the risk since it is trending down. It may trend up with talk of interest rate hikes being done but I've got to see a change before I'm a believer.

The foriegn markets are all up this morning and dollar may bounce a little. I expect an up day for the I-fund. I think I-fund is owed a little right now so I'm not sure when I'll get out.

[FundSurfer]

I had an attack of chicken. I've passed my first targets and was looking for weakness to bail. I see markets again going up strong so I'm headed to the sideline. I expect I-fund to do well today but for the dollar to begin to strengthen from here. The S-fund will set new highs but should experiance profit taking.

[FundSurfer]

Moving to 30% C, 35% S, 35% I.

C and S are at the bottom of trading channels, they are poised to move up.

I-fund - the day started out really red. Should rebound tommorrow. The dollar is dropping like a rock (right now) following Berny's comments to congress. You have to think this might trigger a FV but hopefully not and dollar loss will get figured in tommorrow. I can only hope.

I've spread my risk to all three stock funds cause this market has been acting jittery.

Surf's up! :cool:

(I'll post my target's tommorrow.)

[FundSurfer]

I-fund went above its trading channel yesterday, above target, today likely profit taking but I'd need to have bailed yesterday to avoid. Hopefully today won't be too bad.

C-fund near top of trading channel, target reached, I would normally wait for weakness to bail (and we may see some today on profit taking), but spotty internet access has me getting out while I can.

S-fund has room to go up, however, the whole market seems near a top. It could bring down the S because of that. I debated staying in the S-fund but decided against since I may not be able to react quickly over the next few days.

Bailed to 100% G. I don't like the looks of the F-fund which is trending down.

[Griffin]

Fundsurfer,

There's still time to cancel that IFT. Yesterday's surge was sure to produce a small reverse dead cat bounce......The sentiment is still bullish.

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/05/03/europe.stocks.reut/index.html

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/05/03/asiastox.wednesday.reut/index.html

[Pilgrim]

Fundsurfer,

G is clearly the place to be today, but what about tomorrow?? European markets are down almost 1% and the dollar is basically flat. I am sitting in G and thinking hard about going all I-fund for tomorrow. Wanna bet on a bounce back up?

[FundSurfer]

I'm stepping back in early trying to anticipate a bounce on Monday. Hopefully it isn't too early. A less risky approach would be to wait for signs of positive and then react.

C and S funds are at or slightly below recent trading channels. I-fund was above its channel and this pull back is just bringing it back into the channel. I think the dollar has another 4-5% to drop. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts at the end of today.

50%S, 50%I at COB for Monday.

[The_Technician]

I'm stepping back in early trying to anticipate a bounce on Monday. Hopefully it isn't too early. A less risky approach would be to wait for signs of positive and then react.

C and S funds are at or slightly below recent trading channels. I-fund was above its channel and this pull back is just bringing it back into the channel. I think the dollar has another 4-5% to drop. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts at the end of today.

50%S, 50%I at COB for Monday.

I'm expecting some more correction.....you sure you wanna keep deaf ears.....???? ;)

Always consider ones abilities.....and try to know what they may be doing.....because it may be beneficial....:blink:

[mlk_man]

Looks like Techy is in the recruiting business these days. :rolleyes:

Like I've said before, every broken clock is correct twice a day..........

[Pilgrim]

Enjoying your loss on Friday eh MM......boy, that was a real dooooozie..!!;)

I don't generally get involved in these unpleasant exchanges, but this seems out of line, not only because I got hurt Friday but because its real bad for the board. We all suffer losses if we choose to play and I think that explicitly rubbing it in should be strongly discouraged. Too much of this and the board will fall apart.

[FundSurfer]

I've got real broad shoulders and can carry the load. I bought on Friday knowing full well (as indicated in my comments that Monday could as easily be down as up). I did buy cheaper than I sold so compared to buy and hold, it was a victory to me.

I'm not sure I understand Techy myself. He is currently about as low on the list of returns as you can get and he is dishing out advice like there is no tommorrow. It is customary to establish some credibility prior to proclaiming yourself to be an expert. Admittedly I've poked a few jabs at Techy, but they were an attempt to suggest that either a) consider the possibility that your methodology could use some adjustment [and to his credit he has said that he has learned a few things and could use some fine tuning] and b) to make sure others who read the message board are aware of the source and track record of those making pronouncements and at the same time make Techy aware of how others percieve his post.

It seems Techy has taken my post as more of a personal attack and after reading my post, that's justified. My post did have a certain edge and did point to what is probably a big sore spot for Techy, his return. If he wants to give a little back in my account thread, that is fine and better here than other places on the board. If our places were reversed, I keep quiet a little longer till I had more to show for myself. If he makes great strides with his interfund transfers and moves, I'll be one of the first to pat him on the back.

[Griffin]

I'm not sure I understand Techy myself. He is currently about as low on the list of returns as you can get and he is dishing out advice like there is no tommorrow. It is customary to establish some credibility prior to proclaiming yourself to be an expert. Admittedly I've poked a few jabs at Techy, but they were an attempt to suggest that either a) consider the possibility that your methodology could use some adjustment [and to his credit he has said that he has learned a few things and could use some fine tuning] and b) to make sure others who read the message board are aware of the source and track record of those making pronouncements and at the same time make Techy aware of how others percieve his post.

Fundsurfer, do not be too diplomatic, Tech goes beyond the scope of alternative viewpoints, and those that would consider his advice need to be aware of how poor his performance has been. You, me and everyone else has just as much capability to go into capital preservation mode as Tech does, however, he does not have as much to protect, and that is something to be considered.

[Show-me]

:eek: :laugh: :nuts: :cheesy:

Just not enough smiles in the world.

[nnuut]

LOOK! Tech has his own technique for losing his money. We all do our thing, and it's nobodys business how somebody invests their money. Just read his posts and shut up!!! I like all of you, but you are getting on my nerves!!:nuts: :nuts:

[FundSurfer]

Ouch! That hurt. Now I'm in noman's land. The market has dropped further than I thought it would yesterday when I jumped overboard. Now we look to have a bounce but I can't take advantage since it could be short lived. I think I'll just sit and wait for the next trend to become clear. Could mean I miss a really good bounce but that's the breaks.

[FundSurfer]

C-fund and S-fund have retraced to where I'd consider the bottom of a mid-cycle down. This has been long over due. I'm thinking we should climb from here. Likely to be some chop but I don't think we'll be able to time the chop very well.

I'm avoiding the I-fund for now since it's trend is less clear. Dollar index appears like it may have changed directions at least short term. I expect the foreign markets to bounce but until dollar direction is more clear, to me it is less risky to be in C & S. I-fund could end up out performing, but my goals include risk and gains combined. I’ve moved to 50% C and 50% S. My targets are $14.20 for C and $17.8 for S. I will spread to the I-fund if its trend changes and looks to advance quicker.

[FundSurfer]

Revising my targets to c @ $14.00 and S @ $17.4 -- so much chop. I will bail quickly if the market goes red a couple days in a row and goes below my buy-in point.

[FundSurfer]

Both targets have been reached. Didn't think they would reach today. I will be transferring to G at the first sign of weakness, which I expect tommorrow. Hopefully, the market will not drop back down like a rock. I expect we'll get about a $0.20 (1%) retracement once it begins.

[Griffin]

I'm a bit concerned that today came too far too fast and will ignite some selling. In fact, I have been seriously considering playing the action, because it could lead to a retest of the 24th.

Why do you think it will only retrace 1% and not retest?

[FundSurfer]

I'm a bit concerned that today came too far too fast and will ignite some selling.

Agreed. If we had more flexibility with our accounts, I would have sold this afternoon. I'm actually hoping for at least a sideways day tommorrow - I'd probably transfer.


Why do you think it will only retrace 1% and not retest?

Actually, I should have said minimum 1%. My estimate is based upon my expectation of the amplitude of the chop figuring in a little cushion since we can't time very well. I typically wait for there to be signs of positive before getting back into the market, so if it drops like a rock I'll wait longer. I don't have to hit the peaks and valleys exactly to meet my goal.

What goes up, must come down. The hard part for me is being patient.

[FundSurfer]

OK, today qualifies as "dropped like a rock". My targets have been reached. I'll be looking to get back into the market with some signs of life. The question is how long before we bounce. I think it will be fairly quickly and I'll probably get back into the market tommorrow unless we have another drop like a rock day which I don't expect.

[FundSurfer]

50% S, 50% I ... betting on a bounce. The I-fund is VERY risky right now, but I think we'll see the beginning of a bounce in US this afternoon with foriegn following tommorrow. I also think the dollar will decline after this bounce because of European Central Banks raising rates will drop dollar in relation to Euro. Japan is also overdue for some relief.

[FundSurfer]

Mistake! This drop has taken us below support level and could go deeper before going back up. I stepped aside back to G-fund with some thrown at F-fund as well. It isn't about what we are doing today but likely what we are going to do tommorrow. If we have gone to a new low, we should not V right back up. There will be opportunity to get back in at near the bottom, even if it is formed today.

[FundSurfer]

The risk taker in me wants to get back into this market figuring that we have to be near a bottom. The level headed side says, you've been here before a jumped in trying to anticipate instead of waiting for postive market moves to give a signal. After a couple of mistakes costing some losses, this time I'll listen to the level headed side and wait.

If I was in I-fund today, I would bail out. I expect the US drop today will drag down foriegn stocks tommorrow. S-fund might rebound but might not also...

[FundSurfer]

The Risk-taker in me won out. I guess I diversified into C,S, & I to mitigate the risk somewhat. It looks like we are getting to long term valley of a long term trading range. I'm thinking that this area will act as an area of support. I may be early (wouldn't be the first time). I was encourage by the move positive heading toward noon. Hopefully this will bode well for tommorrow. Hopefully the CPI tommorrow will not torpedo the market and instead start a rally. How's that for optimistic?

[FundSurfer]

I'm getting back out. I don't trust this market and I can always get back in if more positive shows up. I-fund will be a nice place to be if today can stay positive.

[FundSurfer]

I started to get into the market this morning in a diversified way (30C, 35S, 35I) thinking the markets were due for an uptick. Looking at the morning movement, stocks have started strong to the positive. It may not keep this level of positive for the day but this could signal foriegn markets to move higher tommorrow. I therefore shifted more of my allocation into I-fund. The dollar seems to have dropped slightly. The market maybe anticipating language from the fed that signals we are nearing an end to rate hikes. I think the fed will give us this language (they have given this language several times already which started mini-rally's only to talk out of the other side of their mouth days later.) I therefore switched to 20C, 20S, and 60I. I guess I'm not confident enough to go 100% I although I do think the I-fund will outperform all funds tommorrow.

[FundSurfer]

I was thinking the same thing as what Tom had in his comments today. (That's actually a little scary since Tom seems to be early in his predictions lately.) Also I-fund looks to be down so a good day to buy I. C&S down early but who knows where they'll end up. Hopefully they'll turn around by days end an lead another leg up.

[tsptalk]

So are you voting against a retest for the S&P 500 FS?

[FundSurfer]

I think we'll see another jog down but maybe not a retest. I think we'll have a couple up days first.

[FundSurfer]

Probably more damage will be done today based on early indications (Pre-market and overseas). I think that I will ride this one out as I don't see us crashing to completely new lows. I can't move close to deadline today so I've got to decide now, and I guess I've decided to stay put for today.

[FundSurfer]

Well, I didn't think we'd go this low. If I was out of the market I'd be looking for any positive to signal getting back in the market. Right now I'm staying put since I think the chances of turning around are greater than the chances of going down. I'm just going to continue riding it out.

[FundSurfer]

Foriegn markets should follow the US today and the dollar could/should fall some more. This sets I up as a good place to be tommorrow. This is a high risk move since world events could change things around and the day isn't over yet. A late day reversal could get the I-fund hammered tommorrow (FV today in favor of current holders of I-fund that gets taken away tommorrow is likely).

[FundSurfer]

Going 50%G, 50%S. I expect S might bounce tommorrow and I got out of I because it is likely to get whacked. I may move back into I tommorrow.

[Jeremy]

Fundsurfer, I have a question for you. You say in your post that your going to put your money in this fund one day and another fund the next day. How do you allocate your funds so fast? I go on the www.tsp.gov (http://www.tsp.gov) page and it seems like it takes a while to do interfund transfers, for example, a few days. :confused:

[FundSurfer]

To see how to do an interfund transfer, see the link below:

http://www.tsptalk.com/help.html

Here's the skinny. If you make an interfund transfer before noon, the transfer takes place using the share prices at the end of that day. The next day you are then in your new allocation. If you make a transfer at just after noon, your transfer does not occur until COB the next business day. That is why you will see a flurry of activity in the member allocation thread before noon. Everyone is beating the deadline and then posting their new allocation for the purposes of the tracker.

Hope that helps and welcome to tsptalk.

[FundSurfer]

I went 25% C, 50% S, and 25% I at COB Monday. I'm thinking I will stay here for a little while. This market has been acting very unpredictable lately. And if you can find any trend, that trend is that there really isn't an established trend. Right now you might do well to sell green days and buy red days since there has been sooooo much chop. I haven't been able to stay ahead of the chop which is why I have the spread allocation. Yesterday the Small Caps gained, lost, and regained a percent. That is chop that is happening too quickly for us to be able to react. Looking at the charts, the S-fund seems to have been hit the hardest in the latest pull back which is why I have a higher amount of S-fund. The dollar seems to have a slight up trend but I think it will be dropping again soon. I'll like it a whole lot better when the market gains a little more predictability.

[nnuut]

Amen Brother!:)

[FundSurfer]

Forget what I said yesterday about staying put. We've had several up days in a row. I expect a little profit taking and thus pullback. (I don't know how much of a pullback so I'll let the market tell me when to get back in.) I also look ahead to tommorrows economic releases and predict that news may be slightly good and thus sell the news. I'll be looking to get back in with a diversified allocation shortly since overall I'm bullish. I'm just hoping to sell a green day so I can buy back on a red day.

[FundSurfer]

Although I've missed 1-2% move up, I'm still going to sit tight. This market has been moving down as quickly as it moves up. Jumping in now is likely to get you whipsawed. I agree with I think it was Wheels who said that the move up in anticipation of a rate hike stop by the fed is setting up up for a sell the news move down. We may also have a larger euphoric upward move when many of the less active traders see the fed stop as a time to get invested and a market move up. I can wait for a pull back to get back into the market. Who knows, the Fed may raise rates one more time and give a more difinitive signal that they are about to pause. That would likely add volitility as the market tries to figure out how to react to that.

What goes up will go down.

[ChemEng]

I agree exactly FundSurfer. Getting out today to see how things pan out early next week.

[FundSurfer]

I made a late move. The drop looks like it might be a good buy and I think the Fed may stop and will have a good jump in the market. I look to get out quickly. I'm still bearish for short term.

[Griffin]

I made a late move. The drop looks like it might be a good buy and I think the Fed may stop and will have a good jump in the market. I look to get out quickly. I'm still bearish for short term.

FS, how short do you expect this rally to be? Are you going to bail today, or do you expect the top to form and hold through the next couple of days?

[FundSurfer]

It would be really tough to bail today since you would have to decide before any Fed news is announced. However, I do expect a euphoric rise following a Fed decision to stop followed by a reversal when people begin to digest what the Fed has actually said and reality of oil/Middle East sets in. I actually haven't decided yet.

[FundSurfer]

I decided that I'm more comfortable in G for tommorrow than being in stocks. I expect the market to turn around shortly and I'd rather wait on a better buy-in point. I'm hopeful that my one day gamble pays off and the market takes off following a Fed announce of pause. It was a gamble, but at least a well thought out gamble.

[FundSurfer]

The dice came up snake eyes! Ouch, that 20% in the S-fund is gonna leave a mark. I wouldn't want to be in the I-fund tommorrow. Be interesting to see how the internationals react to the US market dive. My bet is not good.

[nnuut]

Looks like a good day to hit "Happy Hour", I'm gone, be back later when I'm in a better mood!:D Hic!!!

[nnuut]

Hic!:D

[FundSurfer]

This up and down market has been classic buy the red sell the green. With everyone talking stall on Friday, I'd almost expect to see Thursday be red in anticipation as people begin to sell in advance and short sellers begin to set up and then Friday take off as as people buy the bargins and the shorts get squeezed.

I think I'll wait to buy back into the market, maybe tommorrow.

Ping-pong anyone?

(Note to self: Buy red, sell green)

[FundSurfer]

Ping: Market up 1% in the morning
Pong: Market gives it all back by 10:00
Ping: Market dashes back forward and retakes days high by noon.
Pong: Market fades back to even by 3:00
Ping: Market dives toward market close to negaitve territory

This is sure some choppy water. I wonder what tommorrow will bring.

[FUTURESTRADER]

question is.. "where will the market be at Friday's close?"..too late to worry about tomorrow :)

[FundSurfer]

question is.. "where will the market be at Friday's close?"..

It is anybody's guess. I'm still thinking it will be a red day tommorrow, although it might start green.

[FundSurfer]

The I fund is going to be hit hard and I'm betting will bounce on Monday. The C and S funds have recovered from morning drop and headed green. I expect them to turn to red this afternoon. I don't think we'll get a pop on Friday because of the terrorist plot will un-nerve a bunch of investors and keep people from jumping on a band wagon. Just my thoughts. I went 60% I and 40% G to hedge my bets.

[FundSurfer]

I bailed out to 100% G cause I'm expecting the market to take a little rest. This is also Friday of options expiration and we could see related selling today or Monday. I'll wait till Monday to see if it is time to get back in. S-fund is lagging and I'll probably weight a little more in that direction.

[Fivetears]

IMHO... the last week of August should make for 3 nice cliffs to hang glide from.
We'll just have to pick one... or two. Maybe do a little of all three. :)

[FundSurfer]

Looks like cliff #1 in the making. Housing down turn has makets headed red. I'm not going to jump in too early. I expect overseas to follow tommorrow (down). Tommorrow might be a better day to get back in the market depending on what this afternoon brings. I'm staying on the sidelines.

[FundSurfer]

Today's charts are not inspiring me to be a buyer. I think I'll spend another day on the sidelines.

[FundSurfer]

I'm leaning toward moving some money into the I-fund this morning and staying away from the C&S. My current thinking has to do with Friday. If we move into the market, we will be in the market for Monday which means we'll have the weekend ahead of us. The tropical depression could upgrade to a hurricane headed toward the heart of the gulf by Monday. That would likely send oil prices higher and raise economic fears short term on Monday. Oil going up is actually good for the I-fund short term since the I-fund has several oil stocks. The value of the dollar could be headed lower but that can depend on what Berny says at 10:00. The overseas markets will be ahead of the US market and if the US goes red would follow on Tuesday. Maybe I'm over analyzing and double thinkin' stuff but that's the way I'm leaning. -- S-fund is looking pretty beat up.... I need to check if Wheels is still in the S-fund....It'll be time to buy when he bails... ;) (Sorry Dave, couldn't resist.)

[Fireant]

Your thinking is very similar to mine... however I'm worried about the end of the month ultimatum with Iran and the repurcussions in addition to all the other geo-political messes...all in all this looks like it might be shaping up into the perfect "ernesto/economic" storm and until I can somewhat figure it out I am going to preserve and sit in the G... your analysis on the oil play is dead-on but my overriding concern is the u.s. market... I believe it needs a serious correction and concerned the internationals will follow... I love the I fund over any of the funds at the present moment but just waiting for the entry level and don't want to jump too soon... anyway just my 2 cents... good luck... DA FIREANT>>>

[FundSurfer]

I did go 40% IFT to I-fund. We may see the dollar slide some more and overseas goi up. I'm not completely convinced which is why only 40%.

[FundSurfer]

Moved 20% more into I-fund. Basically I think there is a positive bias for I-fund for tommorrow, but not enough to go 100% I like many are doing today. Overseas may follow US market move occuring today. (Might also reverse tommorrow.) Generally I'm bullish on I-fund so buying the recent dip makes sense anyway. I put 20% into F because I think the G-fund will pay the penny today and F has been trending up at a pace that exceeds the G. The lower oil prices lowers inflation risk and lessens chance of Fed increase and slowing economic outlook increases chance of Fed pullback (I don't think it will happen but those that think it possible will increase bonds). I'm 20% G, 20% F, 60% I as of COB.

[FundSurfer]

I went into a conservative spread of funds. 40%G, 25%C, 25%S, 10%I. This spreading of funds is how I deal with not knowing what direction the market will take. I think this market is very volitile and thus the conservative slant toward G. I think I-fund will give back gains tommorrow. Hopefully I can get out without getting smacked by an FV that takes away todays gains based on a guess by Barclay that I-fund will go down tommorrow (even though that's my guess). I've put some into C and S because I think they may increase prior to the holiday. As to to taking money out of the F-fund, I'm not very good as short term predictions for F so I'll go to the safety of G.

[Wheels]

Hopefully I can get out without getting smacked by an FV that takes away todays gains based on a guess by Barclay that I-fund will go down tommorrow (even though that's my guess).

On the contrary, I think you (and sugar) are going to steal some FV tonight. The dollar fell pretty hard after the Fed minutes.

It's been hard enough catching you two what with my own goofs. But it's going to be downright impossible if you guys keep getting these gifts.

Dave
<><

[FundSurfer]

I don't get it. The Fed, if anything, sounded hawkish on inflation and if anything more like they were considering another rate hike. This should have sent the dollar higher, not lower. The only explanation is that the market was figuring on a hike and the Fed comments were not hawkish enough. Sell the news? No complaints on my part, I'd be nice to get some extra FV after all the ones who have gone against me. If I get one my way it will only be because of S&S's luck with FV's out weighing my bad luck with FV's.

[ebbnflow]

On the contrary, I think you (and sugar) are going to steal some FV tonight. The dollar fell pretty hard after the Fed minutes.


Yep, we should definitely get an FV today. I noticed the Barclay people being gun-shy a couple of times. Maybe they were getting a lot of hate mail from TSP'ers. :D

[FundSurfer]

I think the hammer is gonna come down in the next couple days. It could start tommorrow afternoon or wait till next Tuesday. I think I'll sit on the sidelines. What goes up will come down. I don't have to hit every peak and valley. I see a bunch of folks jumping in hoping to catch tommorrows seasonal peak day. The contrarian in me says to get to the sidelines. My system says to bail at the first sign of any red. Therefore I'm going 100% G.

[Wheels]

It's been hard enough catching you two what with my own goofs. But it's going to be downright impossible if you guys keep getting these gifts.


I was pretty bent last night when I went to bed and realized that each of the 3 people ahead of me in the Tally had bailed on the I fund and in doing so had padded there accounts with a large chunk of extra FV. However seeing my account balance rise helped sooth me today.

Still, it looks like I am going to have to roll up my sleeves and hit the books (books = charts, articles, commentaries, posts, etc) to reel you guys in (thus making more money, more money, more money, which afterall is the real goal).

[Griffin]

I was pretty bent last night when I went to bed and realized that each of the 3 people ahead of me in the Tally had bailed on the I fund and in doing so had padded there accounts with a large chunk of extra FV. However seeing my account balance rise helped sooth me today.

Still, it looks like I am going to have to roll up my sleeves and hit the books (books = charts, articles, commentaries, posts, etc) to reel you guys in (thus making more money, more money, more money, which afterall is the real goal).

Dave, I know you got beat up pretty hard by the S-fund, but the shift to small caps we were both hoping for weeks ago has finally started. Despite, the bad move I made in June and being out of the timing game most of the rest of the summer, I have been steady gaining using the S since I got back.

Have you read M_M's comments about the tally - he's got a good point: if your making risky/unsound moves gambling to get back in the game, then the tally is self destructive. Use the Tally for what it's worth - a list of people who have good handle on what their doing.

This is a turtle race - and just like in elementary school - every kid is a winner. In any given year it is theoretically possible to make or lose upwards of 100% or more using TSP. The fact that we are all hoping to capture 10-15% of that should help put the onsies/twosies in perspective.

One last thing - for all her self deprecation and denial - S&S knows what she's doing - it ain't luck.

[Wheels]

Dave, I know you got beat up pretty hard by the S-fund, but the shift to small caps we were both hoping for weeks ago has finally started. Despite, the bad move I made in June and being out of the timing game most of the rest of the summer, I have been steady gaining using the S since I got back.

Have you read M_M's comments about the tally - he's got a good point: if your making risky/unsound moves gambling to get back in the game, then the tally is self destructive. Use the Tally for what it's worth - a list of people who have good handle on what their doing.

This is a turtle race - and just like in elementary school - every kid is a winner. In any given year it is theoretically possible to make or lose upwards of 100% or more using TSP. The fact that we are all hoping to capture 10-15% of that should help put the onsies/twosies in perspective.

One last thing - for all her self deprecation and denial - S&S knows what she's doing - it ain't luck.

Yes. The S fund is outperforming a bit this week and it is good to finally get on the right side of it. If today's gains hold then I will be getting a little closer to approaching my high's for the year.

I did read M_M's comments. Did you read my post further down in the thread.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=54631&postcount=31.

S&S is doing very well but there has been a little luck. I would guess 2-3% of her return is from FV's that went her way. But even without that 2-3% she is doing very well. The self deprecation just makes it a little hard to take her posts seriously. But I guess many others here still find it humorous so power to her.

[Griffin]

I did read M_M's comments. Did you read my post further down in the thread.


I did not catch that post on the first read. I agree with you about the competition issue. Competition is a great motivator (procrastination to the point of panic is my other personal favorite :D) - If I wasn't in the military - I would be a dope smoking hippie, which brings me to the other point

It is a little hard to take a S&S seriously - but then again, why should you trust anyone on a free website? She's like the Oracle of Delphi and I'm not going to knock it, luck favors the bold.

[Wheels]

Sorry FS for hi-jacking your thread. I'll release it now.

[Griffin]

Sorry FS for hi-jacking your thread. I'll release it now.

Me too, I apologize -

FS, your the only beating her, do you watch what she does? you mentioned that her good luck trumps your bad luck - do you think it is all luck or some skill?

[FundSurfer]

Nope... all interesting read...

No, I respect what S&S does and do not account everything as luck. The statement I made about her good luck trumping my bad was meant more as a statement of my bad luck when it has come to FV's. She has said that some of the moves she made were because she was hoping to catch the right end of an FV. If you look at when she made those moves, it was going into the I-fund not out. I think that Barclay's is over guessing the FV's so that tact may be very smart indeed. Besides, she can be very entertaining...:D

Do I watch her? Yes I watch everyone who is doing well...

[FundSurfer]

I'm sitting here playing with spreadsheets and daydreaming about this weekend. I'm in safe harbor (G-fund) for now and thinking I got out too early. It's easy to Monday morning QB your own moves. I have to stay in G now since I don't want to be in the market for Tuesday at this point. If the market was diving I'd be considering it, but it isn't. Y'all have a nice weekend.

[FundSurfer]

The drop has occurred that I was looking for. I'm possibly jumping in a little early which is why I didn't go in 100%. I'm also spread between CSI to help spread the risk. If tommorrow is down again I'll probably push in the rest.

[sugarandspice]

I was feeling the same way about jumping in. Decided to wait 1 more day though. I jumped in too early about 10 days ago but still managed to amke a little anyway. I think that made me wait this time and if it is flat to down tomorrow I will probably go all in.


Fundsurfer,
Sorry for the intrusion. I tried to stop her but it was too late.

[nnuut]

Not much driving the market tomorrow. Have;
OIL is looking pretty good now days, little more drop may lift the market some. Consumer Credit report shouldn't effect the market unless the predictions are way off, so tomorrow may be kinda flat, unless something that we don't know about happens, as always.:o
Consumer Credit

Importance (A-F): This release merits a D-.
Source: Federal Reserve.
Release Time: 15:00 ET on the fifth business day of the month (data for two months prior).
Raw Data Available At: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G19/Current/ (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G19/Current/).This monthly measure of consumer debt is volatile and subject to massive revisions. It is also released well after every other consumer spending indicator, including weekly chain store sales, auto sales, consumer confidence, retail sales, and personal consumption. For these reasons, the market almost never reacts to the consumer credit report.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[FundSurfer]

The late day sell off has me wishing I'd waited... Oh well, I'll still have 30% with which to buy on further pullback.

[FundSurfer]

Buying back in cheaper than I sold so a successful trade. Now I'll sit and wait for it to rebound back up. I've chosen a diverse allocation since my interenet access may be spotty next week. If I had good access and knew I could easily bail, I'd probably gone 100% I or 50S, 50I.

[FundSurfer]

C&S Funds reaching the top of their channels and seeing resistance, I'll probably reduce the amount I have of those 2 funds. I-fund near bottom of its channel. It would be tough to buy more I-fund since it follows the US lead typically and I think US is headed lower (short term). However, I think the dollar is headed lower still (it dropped some this morning already), I may go ahead and increase the amount of I-fund I currently have since it may still out produce the G-fund.

It's good to be back in front of a computer... I'm glad I got lucky while away.

[FundSurfer]

Ended up going 100%G. US markets have not rebounded from this morning and foriegn markets may close lower tommorrow as a result. I'll likely stay on the sidelines till middle of next week unless the I-fund shows signs of life at which time I'll jump on board the I-fund.

[Birchtree]

We may possibly already be in the first quadrant of a new 4 year cycle. FWIW.

[FundSurfer]

We may possibly already be in the first quadrant of a new 4 year cycle. FWIW.

FWIW, I agree. However, what goes up must come down and I'm thinking I can sell here and buy back in cheaper in a few days. I'm bullish just not for the next few days. If I miss a percent cause it jumps without me, I'll be OK and jump on for the ride. I got my spurs ready to ride the bull. YeeHaw!

[FundSurfer]

Thinking of moving into the I-fund tommorrow for the following reasons:

1: I-fund remains at the bottom of its short term channel/trough.

2: The I-fund today remained solid.

3: The C&S did not reverse on a day when they clearly should given quad-witching and the fact they were at top of trading range.

4: The dollar reversed back down following a sharp morning increase.

5: I think the Fed will continue its pause for now and thus dollar may drop following their meeting.


I posted the above yesterday in the I-fund thread. The red this morning concerned me a little but the C&S markets moving latterally adds a little comfort. I'm expecting the dollar to drop tommorow following a no-action move by the Fed. I have not moved everything into the I-fund. I'm looking at today's red as a buying opportunity with the I-fund riding the bottom of it's channel. If dollar spikes or OSM dropps tommorrow, I'll likely buy more I-fund with my 50% I left in G.

I've been following TSPGO's 4 year cycle post and find it interesting. I think we will likely see a drop in C&S since they are at the top of their trading channels. This may affect the I-fund some but the I-fund is likely to bounce back quicker if it does.

As to the f-fund, I'm staying clear. It has had a nice ride but is getting closer to what I would see as the top of a long term trading channel for the f-fund (look at a 1 year chart to see what I'm talking about.) It doesn't pay well enough for me to risk it right now.

Just my rambling thoughts for the morning. Tommorrow should be interesting but we will not know anything till after thetrading deadline.

[FundSurfer]

Well, I'm wishing I'd been more agressive yesterday. No sense looking back, got to look forward. There is a chance of reversal tommorrow of the move forward this morning (or this afternoon for that matter). I still think the Fed will keep rates constant and dollar will slide some as tensions in Thailand ease and investors betting on rate increase bail out which will help I-fund even if reversal does occur. I still don't trust C&S, though I'd feel safer in C considering the drops in C have been mild compared to S, both are high in their channels. I see several others are leading the way toward I-fund (Show-me, Griffin, WOZ; ebbnflow, pyriel, Fivetears, S&S already there).

[Retire]

Well, I'm wishing I'd been more agressive yesterday. No sense looking back, got to look forward. There is a chance of reversal tommorrow of the move forward this morning (or this afternoon for that matter). I still think the Fed will keep rates constant and dollar will slide some as tensions in Thailand ease and investors betting on rate increase bail out which will help I-fund even if reversal does occur. I still don't trust C&S, though I'd feel safer in C considering the drops in C have been mild compared to S, both are high in their channels. I see several others are leading the way toward I-fund (Show-me, Griffin, WOZ; ebbnflow, pyriel, Fivetears, S&S already there).

Here is a tough question for the TSP studs. I don't know how to ask this question without being invasive, please don't take offense. Many of you are taking very significant risk with 100% moves primarily in the I, S, or C fund. How does the value of your account affect your decisions? Without getting into specifics, could we use some generalized numbers say like: Under 100K(apples), Over 200K(oranges), Over 400K(bananas). I am not looking for anyone to disclose account balances. We all watch each others moves, yet we never know if we are comparing ourselves to apples, oranges, or bananas. I am trying to assess if am taking appropriate risks for the capital I am working with. Yes, I realize as we get closer to retirement we should preserve capital and take less risk. I have 13 years to my MRA, and find myself being driven more by account balances than years to retirement. Any insights would be appreciated.

[Griffin]

... Many of you are taking very significant risk with 100% moves primarily in the I, S, or C fund. How does the value of your account affect your decisions? Without getting into specifics, could we use some generalized numbers say like: Under 100K(apples), Over 200K(oranges), Over 400K(bananas). I have 13 years to my MRA, and find myself being driven more by account balances than years to retirement. Any insights would be appreciated....

Retire,

I am a few months from migrating out of the apples category. I got a long way to go. I consider all of this to be a great experiment, if I can consistently meet or beat the market for the next 3 to 4 years, I will be satisfied that this is worth continuing at 100%, probably INTO retirement (if I am truely that successful). I actually feel safer by managing my money then letting it sit, oblivious.

Keep in mind, all those models (100%-your age = stocks, etc....) are geared for people who DO NOT manage their money on a daily basis. The risks we are taking are insignificant within the time frame's that we are moving - at anytime I can cease what I'm doing. If your not good at it and/or your not willing to commit the time to know what you are doing, then you have to factor that it in and adjust accordingly.

I think of it as Monopoly money (even though I'm putting in 20%+ of my salary not counting the match), right now I'm playing with the pink stuff, someday I' expect to be doing the same thing with the tan and the orange stuff. Keep in mind that these are hugh index funds and even a 100% concentration in one fund is extremely diversified. TSP timing is orders of magnitude safer then trading individual stocks.

[FundSurfer]

Good question. We've had discussions before along these lines. To answer your question, I'm mid-career with 16 years to go until I'm eligible to retire. I'm in the oranges category. I have quite a bit of money that I'm moving around and I recognize myself as being very aggressive with my account. My agressiveness has not occurred over night. Like Tom, I started moving my money around back when there was as much as a month and a half delay in when your money actually moved. As time has gone on I have gotten much more confident in my abilities and thus become very aggressive. I look at my past gains which have taken me well above a 100% c-fund allocation and I am comfortable that if a 5-10% correction occured and I was on the wrong side, I'd still be better off for having been aggressive.

I agree totally with what Griffin said. Each person's risk tolerance is different and you have to be able to sleep at night. Wheels has said that he is in the Bannana's + category and I would classify him as agressive as well.

So far what has affected my aggressiveness has really been my ability to pay attention to the market. During those times when I do not have internet access or know that I'll be too busy to be able to follow the market you will see me take a diversified but agressive stance (30%C, 35% S, 35%I) unless we are in a bear market which would change my thinking.

I'm working on a spreadsheet that will track the Tally on a daily basis and allow us to evaluate maximum account drawdown which could be used to evaluate level of risk. (If I could concentrate on one thing at a time I'd probably finish one of my projects but...)

I don't know how my aggressiveness will change as I approach retirement but I'd be willing to bet I'd still be more agressive than the average person. Hope that answered your question.

[Wheels]

Wheels has said that he is in the Bannana's + category and I would classify him as agressive as well.

Correct on both counts. I pretty much mirror exactly what FS said. That is, I recognize that I am aggressive and that I expose myself to some risk. However I have beaten the C every since I started to more closely manage my account (2003) and I'll keep going until I get burned.

[Retire]

Hey guys, thanks so much! I too started taking an active approach in 2001. Active, yet a little passive. Unfortunately I did not find this site until July 06. Since you all disclosed, I am a ripe orange. I really appreciate this site and all your input. The major take away is that there is safety in the multitude of counselors. So, consider the awesome service this site provides. For me, being able to see agreement for moves adds a level of confidence I had been lacking. I plan to continue my pursuit to be aggressive on moves, when the risk/reward is there. Thanks to all for being a team to help each player succeed! :D

[CountryBoy]

I'd like to add an amen to Retire's comments. This site sure has been a great help to me also. Thanks for sharing all y'all's insight. :)

CB

[AIF]

I'd like to echo CountyBoy's comments about Retire's post. I've only been here a short time but I've gained a greater understanding about this entire process. I was out there trying to act on my own with little confidence about the decisions I was making and why. I stopped by this site often but never took the time to really see what was going on. I'm glad I decided to stop and take the time.

[FundSurfer]

I considered taking some off the table this morning; however, I is still low in the channel and dollar is still due to drop in my opinion. I've seen some professionals taking profits (we saw a dip this morning but a rebound) which had me wondering. This time of year tends to be choppy and move laterally. I'm kind of in a grey area for how I approach the market. October/November through May I look for a couple red days after my target has been reached as a signal to switch. Over the summer I'm much quicker on the trigger. I've decided to let this dog run a little but I'll bail out quickly. I've got a target of 20.9 for the I-fund but I don't expect the ride there to be a rocket. There may be some dips yet in September so I'll be watching US markets as indicator leads for I-fund. Bottom line: US markets are green so I'm stayin put in the I-fund.

[FundSurfer]

I posted charts for F, C, S, and I in the threads for each respective fund. The slope (rate of short term daily gain) is still greatest for the I-fund followed by S and then C. The S-fund is near bottom of both a short term channel and a longer term channel which is why I added to my position in the S-fund. The I fund is at the bottom of a short term cycle and near the top of a longer term channel. The I-fund has also been hit with a rising dollar these last few days which has acted like an anchor for gains. In the recent past these turn arounds in dollar value have gone back down fairly quickly. Reading some dollar tracking websites leads me to believe that the dollar is likely to continue upwards for the next few days. I'm staying away from the C-fund since it is at the top of short term and long term channel. i realize money is rotating into the C-fund; however, the gains (slope) still trails the S and I. I'll be paying attention to those channels in order to determine when I get defensive (either funds break below the bottom or approach the top of the channel will trigger defensive moves on my part.)

[Birchtree]

I'm particularly glad you don't like that awful C fund - keep up the reasons not to own that dull fund. I want it all to my selfish self. Hooah!

[FundSurfer]

I'm moving to 100%G. This actually goes against what my system/method tells me to do and is based on market conditions and gut reaction. My method calls for me to ride a wave of green up till we have some red signals. So far we've had a good green run and there is still room to improve upward in the channels (except C which is breaking out to the upside). However, I've done well and have decided that I need to protect my gains rather than try and get to the top. My gut is worried about what will happen once the quarter is over and the need for window dressing is gone. Couple that with the euphoria over reaching new highs and my "counter the herd" instinct is pointing toward the sideline as well.

I know the dollar is ripe for a drop; however, if we see a 1-2% drop in the US markets this will affect the overseas market and since it is more volitile we could see a drop in OSM that is greater than any affect a dropping dollar might provide.

What goes up will come back down. I'll step aside and wait for the roller coaster to come back down before getting back on.

[fabijo]

Looks like you didn't miss out on waiting a day. I fund looks to be breaking even today.

[airlift]

Fundsurfer, --

I like your technical analysis and your opinions are very important to me. A couple of days ago, you posted these charts and I used them successfully to confirm my own belief as to what are the markets' most probable direction. Admittedly, I have been subscribed to RM.com for many years, and I have learned quite a lot from the fine technical analysts who write there on a daily basis (including Rev SharK). But in Tom Crowley's daily analysis and charts, as well as your posting of the TSP charts, I can receive information which is tailored specifically to the TSP funds. Without detracting or excluding other fine colleagues who have come to my help in this site, I want to thank you for your important contribution. Keep it up, and Good Luck! --




I posted charts for F, C, S, and I in the threads for each respective fund. The slope (rate of short term daily gain) is still greatest for the I-fund followed by S and then C. The S-fund is near bottom of both a short term channel and a longer term channel which is why I added to my position in the S-fund. The I fund is at the bottom of a short term cycle and near the top of a longer term channel. The I-fund has also been hit with a rising dollar these last few days which has acted like an anchor for gains. In the recent past these turn arounds in dollar value have gone back down fairly quickly. Reading some dollar tracking websites leads me to believe that the dollar is likely to continue upwards for the next few days. I'm staying away from the C-fund since it is at the top of short term and long term channel. i realize money is rotating into the C-fund; however, the gains (slope) still trails the S and I. I'll be paying attention to those channels in order to determine when I get defensive (either funds break below the bottom or approach the top of the channel will trigger defensive moves on my part.)

[FundSurfer]

Thanks for the feedback. Like you, I learned a lot from others on this site. Thanks to Tom for putting together and spending so much time on it .

[FundSurfer]

I'm jumping back in (guess I'm a jumping bean). I'm admittedly on the edge of my seat. This feels errily like May to me. I'm still waiting on the bottom to fall out however, I think we have seasonality and dropping oil prices on our side. All three stock funds are low in their channels. The C-fund is in a rising wedge with a rapidly narrowing channel. C & S showing green is good for forecast for I-fund for tommorrow. I had the I-fund down slightly today last time I looked. The dollar has a slight positive trend here lately probably mainly due to decreasing oil prices. That will not last forever but I have to admit I was surprised when it went below $60.

Like Wheels, a part of me just wants to go 100% I-fund for the rest of the year but I just can't bring myself to do it.

[nnuut]

I'm jumping back in (guess I'm a jumping bean). I'm admittedly on the edge of my seat. This feels errily like May to me. I'm still waiting on the bottom to fall out however, I think we have seasonality and dropping oil prices on our side. All three stock funds are low in their channels. The C-fund is in a rising wedge with a rapidly narrowing channel. C & S showing green is good for forecast for I-fund for tommorrow. I had the I-fund down slightly today last time I looked. The dollar has a slight positive trend here lately probably mainly due to decreasing oil prices. That will not last forever but I have to admit I was surprised when it went below $60.

Like Wheels, a part of me just wants to go 100% I-fund for the rest of the year but I just can't bring myself to do it.

HEE! Beloooow $58:D

[Show-me]

Looks like the dollar is give'n it back. The rumor on the street is that the FED will possibly lower rates. This should have a weakening effect on the dollar.


I'm jumping back in (guess I'm a jumping bean). I'm admittedly on the edge of my seat. This feels errily like May to me. I'm still waiting on the bottom to fall out however, I think we have seasonality and dropping oil prices on our side. All three stock funds are low in their channels. The C-fund is in a rising wedge with a rapidly narrowing channel. C & S showing green is good for forecast for I-fund for tommorrow. I had the I-fund down slightly today last time I looked. The dollar has a slight positive trend here lately probably mainly due to decreasing oil prices. That will not last forever but I have to admit I was surprised when it went below $60.

Like Wheels, a part of me just wants to go 100% I-fund for the rest of the year but I just can't bring myself to do it.

[Griffin]

Looks like the dollar is give'n it back. The rumor on the street is that the FED will possibly lower rates. This should have a weakening effect on the dollar.

Did you catch CopterDoc's post about the ECB raising the rate on the Euro? When in doubt, the I will be my fund of choice.

[Show-me]

I just did. The MB was real busy today and I popped in and out a number of times trying to keep up. That one must have slipped through the cracks.

Looking like the dollar is being set up for a big decline. ECB raising rates and the possibility of the FED lowering. Double whammy!


Did you catch CopterDoc's post about the ECB raising the rate on the Euro? When in doubt, the I will be my fund of choice.

[ChemEng]

Im 100% in I hoping thats true... :)

[nnuut]

Im 100% in I hoping thats true... :)
I really don't think that the FED will lower rates this month, just my gut feeling. They are not going to jump so quickly, it would make their last raise look unnecessary. I think it may be next month, if things don't change. This is based on nothing just my thoughts. DUH!:notrust:

[Show-me]

That's OK too nnuut. Rumor news thing. By the time they lower rates the market may already have it priced in.


Ireally don't think that the FED will lower rates this month, just my gut feeling. They are not going to jump so quickly, it would make their last raise look unnecessary. I think it may be next month, if things don't change. This is based on nothing just my thoughts. DUH!:notrust:

[FundSurfer]

Hmmmm... Have I mentioned I hate the I-fund.... I got caught on the wrong side of an FV again. I would not mind if Barclay's was a decent GUESSER...

Now that I've vented, everything is still positive for now and moving forward. Some healthy profit taking but definitely a market that want to go up.

If you looked at just the charts and ranked them. S-fund best bet, then I-fund, then C-fund. C-fund seems poised for a pull back. We could also be seeing the a shift upward for S&P long term outlook - I'm sure Birchy would agree. Look at about a 20 year chart for S&P to see if you see those changes. I don't think those are predictable. You just notice and use them when the are visible.

I'm staying put for now.

[FundSurfer]

I'm bailing to G-fund. S-fund has reached the top of a very short term channel and has been green for quite a few days. C-fund is in need of a rest as well and may be loosing steam. I-fund seems to very risky right now. The dollar has been trending upward and if anything escalates with NK or Iran, I'd expect the dollar to go higher temporarily. I expect the dollar to head lower after oil begins to go back up. I'd like to see a healthy 1-2% pullback followed by the forth quarter Santa rally.

[airlift]

There is no douby in my mind that you made a wise decision. With a rising dollar perhaps Birchtree is on to something in looking at the possibility that the C fund might benefit primarily more than the I fund. At least we have to consider this possibikity. --



I'm bailing to G-fund. S-fund has reached the top of a very short term channel and has been green for quite a few days. C-fund is in need of a rest as well and may be loosing steam. I-fund seems to very risky right now. The dollar has been trending upward and if anything escalates with NK or Iran, I'd expect the dollar to go higher temporarily. I expect the dollar to head lower after oil begins to go back up. I'd like to see a healthy 1-2% pullback followed by the forth quarter Santa rally.

[airlift]

Sorry for the misspelling!

[Birchtree]

Sponsor,

The C fund will continue to do better with a lower dollar - it makes our export prices cheaper and more competitive. We need more spending on goods and services produced in the good ole USA.

[airlift]

I believe this is true. But with a lower dollar, the I fund also benefits with the currency differential. --



Sponsor,

The C fund will continue to do better with a lower dollar - it makes our export prices cheaper and more competitive. We need more spending on goods and services produced in the good ole USA.

[Birchtree]

Sponsor,

The I fund is not a currency transaction - they are large cap companies and most of their product will be going into emerging countries. The I fund will continue to do fine with 1021 companies, of which 24% is financial. I wouldn't even bother with the dollar distractions - concentrate on the earnings.

[airlift]

Thanks for the information and advise! --



Sponsor,

The I fund is not a currency transaction - they are large cap companies and most of their product will be going into emerging countries. The I fund will continue to do fine with 1021 companies, of which 24% is financial. I wouldn't even bother with the dollar distractions - concentrate on the earnings.

[FundSurfer]

Do you ever get the feeling the market is looking over your shoulders? Market is headed for a flat to possibly positive day. You say you are going to pack it in and bail to the G-fund and then BAM! the market tanks after you've made your move.

[Griffin]

Do you ever get the feeling the market is looking over your shoulders? Market is headed for a flat to possibly positive day. You say you are going to pack it in and bail to the G-fund and then BAM! the market tanks after you've made your move.


I often feel like the italian in "The Princess Bride" where he gets in the contest with the dread pirate Roberts over which cup of wine has the poison in it, only to find out they were both poisoned.....a little too late.

[mlk_man]

Do you ever get the feeling the market is looking over your shoulders? Market is headed for a flat to possibly positive day. You say you are going to pack it in and bail to the G-fund and then BAM! the market tanks after you've made your move.

You can always buy and hold FS...........:p

[FundSurfer]

This morning's drop does look enticing. The key is when will investors on the sidelines begin to get back into the market. Having been on the sidelines during the recent run-up makes me want to jump on the first opportunity. I'm not jumping in till I see that we are not continuing to fall. I've been through this before and jumped right into the market too quickly, only to loose money and have to jump back out again. May comes to mind. The market dropped, bounced ever so slightly, I jumped into the market and we had a 2% drop the next day. I did jump back out and avoided more on the downside. I haven't forgotten that sting. I know this isn't May, so I'll not dally too much before getting back in, but I am a little gun shy.

I'll wait.

[mlk_man]

Ya gonna miss it..................:p

[FundSurfer]

Maybe..... :D :worried: :notrust: :blink:

[mlk_man]

Sorry FS................:(

[FundSurfer]

Sorry FS................:(

For what? Did I miss something? Doesn't look like the market has made up its mind yet.

[weatherweenie]

For what? Did I miss something? Doesn't look like the market has made up its mind yet.

Yet another example of the futures setting up the sucker punch.

We had a gap up, now the Naz and S are in the red. C is flat.

[mlk_man]

Thought it was gonna take off this morning but it retraced............:sick:

[FundSurfer]

I went 100% I because the dollar went up too much too fast IMHO. When that happens, it has been retracing the following day. I'm still very nervous about this market and hoping that I don't get whacked. This is admittedly a gamble. In the past I've occasionally gotten bitten by a FV that goes against me in these situations as well. Time will tell.

[FundSurfer]

Went 40% S, 60% I just for diversification purposes. Like I said, I'm hanging out the boxcar door looking for a soft spot to jump toward if I see trouble ahead.

[Show-me]

Road trip! Sounds like fun, I'm in the car behind ya. :D

[sugarandspice]

I already jumped.

[FUTURESTRADER]

Went 40% S, 60% I just for diversification purposes. Like I said, I'm hanging out the boxcar door looking for a soft spot to jump toward if I see trouble ahead.

Stochastically,everything is overbought, but everything can stay overbought :)

[Birchtree]

As I continue to run in front of this train I can tell you that the tracks look clear. I'm maintaining a steady pace and perhaps next week I'll sell a beauty and do some more wall flower shopping. I have to burn 200 more trades before the year ends - well I don't have to burn them, but they are free. Once we hit 1528 on the SPX those stocks will explode and up goes the C fund. It's going to be called outperformance.

[FundSurfer]

The G-fund penny should come on Monday. The gain will be equivalent to an annual rate of return of 21.5% (0.086% gain for the day * 250 trading days a year).

Given that the markets are stretched...

Given that today started out red...

Given that Iran is boasting that they have doubled uranium production rates...

The penny is looking mighty good right now... a definite soft spot.

[coolhand]

No telling when we might get that elusive pullback, however there are a lot of traders out there that have been waiting a long time for one and may jump at the opportunity to get in before any meaningful pullback has a chance.

Currently 100% S myself and contemplating a 50% hedge to G fund just to be safe. Noticed that the dollar is under more pressure this morning and yet the I fund is still down over .6 percent.

you're doing very well this year FS. Good job.

[FundSurfer]

No telling when we might get that elusive pullback, however there are a lot of traders out there that have been waiting a long time for one and may jump at the opportunity to get in before any meaningful pullback has a chance.

Currently 100% S myself and contemplating a 50% hedge to G fund just to be safe. Noticed that the dollar is under more pressure this morning and yet the I fund is still down over .6 percent.

you're doing very well this year FS. Good job.

Yeah, I hear what you are saying. Dip buyers will be out in full force. Already seeing it this morning. When I'm not sure, I like being out of the market over the weekend. A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush.

There are also a bunch of people who have been expecting the pullback and will be going short (which causes the market to go down by their selling short).

Thanks for the compliment.

[FundSurfer]

I went to G-fund to get the penny and missed. I need to pay better attention to my calculations. I did not think to check how close the penny prediction was (less than 0.0005). Live and learn.

Back to 100% S. I would diversify into the I-fund but I'm not sure where dollar is headed short term. I'll wait till that is clearer before getting into I-fund.

[EW_ret]

100% S at COB 11/30.

I hope you meant the IFT to 100% S for date 10/30, and not 11/30. Was this correct on my part? You normaly don't post a month ahead, so I assume this was an error in the date.

[FundSurfer]

Yes, I meant 10/30... slip of the finger...

[BigJohn]

Fundsurfer,

Just wanted to pass along a thank-you as a new member but long time watcher for the information that you post. I am attempting to educate myself on the markets and trends that this information might (or might not) bear on my TSP account. It is obvious that you and many others make an earnest attempt to gauge market conditions and post your thoughts on what they mean: it is a real source of information to all of us on this site.

Thanks again.

BigJohn

[FundSurfer]

U R Welcome. I get a bunch out of this board as well.

[FundSurfer]

I have was travelling yesterday and didn't have access to net. Probably a good thing since I might have jumped and missed a potiential bounce today. I'm travelling again so I've got to decide now what to do. Well, I'll sit tight in the S-fund.

[FundSurfer]

I changed to a distributed allocation. I'm spreading my risk somewhat. I did not jump to the safety of the G-fund because I think this pullback will be limited. We are in a strong time of year. With all the talk of stocks going down after the elections, I'm beginning to think the we could get a reversal on election day. A reverse sell the news (ie buy the bad news) type reaction. i remember last year everyone was talking about the previous years post new years drop in the market and thus jumped out prior to the new year. We then had a new years day pop in the market. Could the same thing happen as a result of the elections? I don't know but I'm beginning to get that same feeling.

On a system note, my system calls for me to get out when we reached the top of the channel and have a couple down days. Well we had a couple down days and one was a whopper for me in the S-fund. The C-fund is near the bottom of the channel, I-fund near bottom of an extremely narrow channel and S-fund is in the middle of the channel but has dropped from a position above the channel that had the s-fund been at the top of the channel it would now be the bottom... probably confusing...sorry. For these reasons I'm hesitant to get out. If we go below the channel bottoms, I'll bail out at that point.

[Pilgrim]

On a system note, my system calls for me to get out when we reached the top of the channel and have a couple down days. Well we had a couple down days and one was a whopper for me in the S-fund. The C-fund is near the bottom of the channel, I-fund near bottom of an extremely narrow channel and S-fund is in the middle of the channel but has dropped from a position above the channel that had the s-fund been at the top of the channel it would now be the bottom... probably confusing...sorry. For these reasons I'm hesitant to get out. If we go below the channel bottoms, I'll bail out at that point.

I know I should do my own homework, but if you could just tell us, what are the numbers that you see as the "bottom" of each of those three channels? Where are the exit points for you?

[Birchtree]

I wouldn't give you my edge. Providing I had any kind of edge.

[Pilgrim]

I wouldn't give you my edge. Providing I had any kind of edge.

Are we being mean-spirited?? You wouldn't save me the trouble of printing three graphs and drawing the lines myself if you had already done it? And as for your edge, despite the fact that you buy and hold, so I obviously don't watch your moves, I think highly of what you have to say and feel the better for the fact that you do share. If you're in the mood to sound like a hard ass, go ahead. We know you're not.

[Birchtree]

The best way to learn the money game is simply by doing it. The more homework you do, the better you get. Looks like Fundsurfer is going for the value play. If he's right then I'm right by default.

[FundSurfer]

1171
1173
1172
Here are my current short term charts with the channels I'm watching. You can do the same thing for longer term channels. See my long term below for s-fund. The channel is the area between the two slanting lines. Hope that helps.
1174

[CountryBoy]

Fundsurfer,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and charts. I thought I understood what you were saying and charts just reinforced them. Thank goodness for osmosis, there's hope for me yet. :D

Good luck on your strategy.

Rus

[FundSurfer]

BIRCHTREE Sell SIGNAL CONFIRMED!!!! Run for the hills!....

Just kidding...

I'm moving to G because I expect profit selling to kick in soon and give us a little pull back. We've gone pretty far pretty fast. We are above the channels I have for S and at the top for C & I. If I was to stick to my plan/system, I'd wait till I saw actual red day before bailing.

[FundSurfer]

Went 100% I. I-fund started out in a big hole. The dollar is getting bumped up right now which could counter a late rally of OSM. I'm hoping it at least holds off a positive FV. The USM has advanced nicely. I wish I was more confident it would stay that way. A late day reversal would put those of us that jumped to I fund in a hurting way for tommorrow. I see a bunch of folks are jumping on the same indicators as me this morning. I may not stay long. But for now I'm jumpin'.

[FundSurfer]

Defensive move to 30C, 40S, 30I. I'm not sure if I'll have internet access till the weekend. I don't want to be caught 100% I and unable to move. I'm planning on going to G on Friday if I have access. Happy Thanksgiving!

[sugarandspice]

You really should learn how to use the thriftline to make an IFT. It can save you a lot of money when you don't have access and you get that funny feeling the floor is crumbling. It has saved my a$$ plenty.

[WIND_HUNTER]

You really should learn how to use the thriftline to make an IFT. It can save you a lot of money when you don't have access and you get that funny feeling the floor is crumbling. It has saved my a$$ plenty.

Where do I sign-up for this thrift line course? I am in dire need of a$$ saving strategery.:o

[sugarandspice]

I am about to use it. I will time it from start to finish.

42 seconds

[FundSurfer]

You really should learn how to use the thriftline to make an IFT. It can save you a lot of money when you don't have access and you get that funny feeling the floor is crumbling. It has saved my a$$ plenty.
The problem is looking at how the market is doing prior to the deadline. That ain't thrift. I used to use the thriftline a bunch prior to the web access. I probably should write down the number.

[fedgolfer]

... i subscribe to web access on the mobile phone for the sole purpose of being away from a PC or TV. Since I'm on the golf course or road sometimes near IFT deadlines, i'll look of the main indices and call the thriftline for an ift. It's only paid off a few times, but its nice having a little extra security.

[FundSurfer]

I've given the mobile phone thingy some thought. Not sure I'm that addicted to the market ... yet....

I went out of I fund to 20%G, 40% C, 40% S. Basically I think the dollar will bounce after the big drop. The OSM may also bounce, but I'd rather keep what I got today. I'm staying in C&S today, and planning on going to G after noon today so I'll have a pending transfer for Friday.

[mlk_man]

I've given the mobile phone thingy some thought. Not sure I'm that addicted to the market ... yet....



Verizon only charges me $5 a month for it....................

[FundSurfer]

Went 100% G. This is stepping away from my system/plan. I should be staying 100% invested. I am just feeling like people are seeing this as a no-brainer time to be in the market. I just have a feeling I don't want to be in the market over the weekend. Maybe it was dinner... burp...but I'd just feel a little better on the sidelines. There have been folks calling for a correction for a while now, eventually they will be right.

[airlift]

I agrre with you. Today I am going 100% G. Good Luck!


Went 100% G. This is stepping away from my system/plan. I should be staying 100% invested. I am just feeling like people are seeing this as a no-brainer time to be in the market. I just have a feeling I don't want to be in the market over the weekend. Maybe it was dinner... burp...but I'd just feel a little better on the sidelines. There have been folks calling for a correction for a while now, eventually they will be right.

[mailmanusa]

I use cell phone almost exclusivly for tsp trading. With my provider(cingular) Mobile Mail is much cheaper than web access or Media Mail as Cingular calls it. I subscribe to a handfull of threads on this site and get emails when posts are made. I use that info along with my own sentiment to make decisions. I have gotten very quick navigating the Thriftline menu and can get a change in usually about 2 mins. Its a good idea to practice navigating the Thriftline if you would be calling close to the deadline. I believe I have found one glitch in my system though. You get an email from this site when a message is posted to a thread you have subscribed to. I think, but I am not sure, that you wont get a second email for that same thread untill you actually visit that thread on this site. So the problem for me comes when someone makes a move and then edits the move or posts a second time in the same thread. I dont get an email of the second move. It doesnt happen often but it is a minor glitch of the cell phone email operation tactic I use.

[FundSurfer]

I'm staying G-fund for another day at least. I don't want to jump back into a dead cat bounce like I did last May... I know that this is a different season with expectations of the seasonal Santa Rally however, which make the probability of a sustained decline smallish.

I can afford to wait another day or two.

[FundSurfer]

Looking at the charts, I think S-fund is in the best shape to continue another 1%-1.5%. C and I both can go up but may go up a little slower than S. I'm also worried about a dollar bounce slowing down he I-fund. There always seems to be someone who will bail out the dollar. I think it is the big dollar holders that buy dollars to protect their investment. Of course China is getting tired of doing that and we knew that would happen. We may be able to get them to go for it again but no gurantee. I think the dollar is headed back to the lows of 2005, but we could see a small bounce first.

All this to say I'm leaning toward getting back into S-fund. I may diversify into C and I as well. Probably will not make up my mind till closer to the deadline. I'm sure there will be people jumping into the I-fund thinking the I will benefit tommorrow from this bounce. The problem is that OSM led this bounce not vice versa.

[Birchtree]

Small stocks have gone back to beating large company shares so far in the fourth quarter despite headline-grabbing rallies in major market measures. Such outsize performance by small stocks runs counter to the scenario that most of Wall Street has been pushing lately: that big names are best-positioned to weather slowing U.S. economic growth. Many of the factors that have helped the Dow and S&P 500 recently have helped small stocks, too. Last week, small stocks in particular were helped by a wave of merger activity on Wall Street. And for my negative bias: Stocks in the small cap indexes face big risks from falling housing prices. Financial companies, including many regional banks, now make up more than a third of these indexes and may see big declines in fourth quarter profits once those results begin to be released early next year. I'm peeling some off over time.

[FundSurfer]

Bought back in at 100% S. I decided against spreading the risk. I think S will out perform I short term. We could be seeing a transition of the trading ranges. I expect this is being caused by preparation for end of year.

[FundSurfer]

EOM jitters? I went into a five corners spread.

[Griffin]

Desperado convince you to move to the "know nothing allocation"? :D

[FundSurfer]

Yep, my dart split 5 ways....:D

[FundSurfer]

I think I'll stay where I'm at. Short term channels are looking like buys. Long term channels not so much. S still has room to go though. I'll wait to see what Monday brings.

1210

[airlift]

Fundsurfer,
As I told weatherweenie, "Sorry to post this here, but it's the quickest way of requesting your opinion in another thread. Thanks in advance!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/icons/icon1.gif Re: Health-Plan Options
Weatherweenie and Scout333 have posted important cost-rises and also BCBS increases. Help anyone! Can someone give a summary of the best Health-Plan option. I've always been with BCBS for my wife and me, and I don't like the HMO thing. Rather I have the preferred physician or PPO ( don't know the exact name). I also am re-enlisting in the FSA (Fexible Savings accounts) for 2007. So far it's working well, as explained by Fundsurfer. Now I am looking to join the new dental plan. Has anyone compared which is the better Dental Plan? I heard say that BCBS was not selected as an intermediary for this. Thanks in advance for your opinions!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/misc/progress.gif

[FundSurfer]

Haven't really looked into the dental plan ting yet. Not sure if it is worth the money. guess I need to look at it and take the tax implications into account as well.



Fundsurfer,
As I told weatherweenie, "Sorry to post this here, but it's the quickest way of requesting your opinion in another thread. Thanks in advance!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/icons/icon1.gif Re: Health-Plan Options
Weatherweenie and Scout333 have posted important cost-rises and also BCBS increases. Help anyone! Can someone give a summary of the best Health-Plan option. I've always been with BCBS for my wife and me, and I don't like the HMO thing. Rather I have the preferred physician or PPO ( don't know the exact name). I also am re-enlisting in the FSA (Fexible Savings accounts) for 2007. So far it's working well, as explained by Fundsurfer. Now I am looking to join the new dental plan. Has anyone compared which is the better Dental Plan? I heard say that BCBS was not selected as an intermediary for this. Thanks in advance for your opinions!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/misc/progress.gif

[Rydogg]

I looked into the Dental plans pretty intensely but they aren't really worth it :( IF you're just going in for routine dental work/cleanings. Use your FSA for that you'll be ahead of the game.

If you're having some type of surgery or crowns or something, then I'd say go for it. I got the Metlife High plan and I'm having one crown put in next year and it's actually paying me back double :nuts: my annual premiums.

If you're going for orthodontics WATCHOUT, you need to have coverage for two years BEFORE you get braces or they don't pay out anything. Even with that the plans only cover ~$1500 total:mad:. Not worth it in my opinion.

FSA all the way!!! Hope this helps.

[GUCHI]

rydogg

my dentist has been saying for years that my wife and i will need crowns to replace these old fillings and at $ 1200 a pop we can't afford them. so your saying metlife looks like the way to go for a procedure like that ?? :confused: i have bcbs currently. does met have a 1 year wait on a procedure like crowns?? and how about the cost difference ??? do you know anything about aetna ???

thanks for the info

guchi:)

[Rydogg]

my dentist has been saying for years that my wife and i will need crowns to replace these old fillings and at $ 1200 a pop we can't afford them. so your saying metlife looks like the way to go for a procedure like that ?? :confused: i have bcbs currently. does met have a 1 year wait on a procedure like crowns?? and how about the cost difference ??? do you know anything about aetna ???


I'll try and answer your q's one at a time here: The cheapest one I could find was the MetLife High plan (but I just figured it with the SINGLE person premiums).

To calculate that, I took into consideration % coverage, annual premiums, copays, FSA discount, Maximum Benefit limit..... blah blah blah. Sufice it to say, if you're spending over $1200/person then MetLife High is the plan you need, NO QUESTION! You may want to compare your premiums to mine though, which cost me $311/year.

There is no waiting period on anything else, just braces (amen).:D
In your case, if your crowns cost $1200, then $600 of that will be covered by MetLife and the rest you can knock down with your FSA. (Keep in mind that I did all my totals assuming that my FSA would buy down my out-of-pocket costs in the end).

I looked at Aetna and they were actually the most expensive plan out there ...by a long shot!!!:blink:

I don't know everything about your situation but what you told me, so if you have kids or other extenuating circumstances, you'd have to figure those in too. Good luck and keep up the good work on the funds, your returns this year are very enviable.
--Ryan

[GUCHI]

rydogg

i appreciate your info. it was very helpful. what is a fsa ???:confused: and where did you see my returns,:confused: since i have not posted them, i'm just watching the big dogs and trying to come up with my own comfort level.
thanks for the info.

guchi

[Rydogg]

i appreciate your info. it was very helpful. what is a fsa ???:confused: and where did you see my returns,:confused: since i have not posted them, i'm just watching the big dogs and trying to come up with my own comfort level.

My mistake, I wasn't paying attention to your display name, thought it was FundSurfer I was talking to.

An FSA is a Flexible Spending Account that Federal employees (I'm not sure if enlisted personel can use it) can put aside UP to $5k pre-tax dollars each year to fund almost all medical related expenses. It covers asprin, persrciption drugs, doctor copay's, dental implants, eye surgery... you get the picture. If your interested, check it out at www.FSAFEDS.com. Some people call it an HSA or Health Savings Account, more or less the same thing.