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Ed_the_Fed
08-11-2007, 03:22 PM
The S Fund is currently sitting almost 8% below its July 13 21.21 high. A rebound back up to this level would yield about 8.4% gain. The markets are so volatile right now that we may see large ups and downs in the near term. Get out your malox tabs folks!

BeaverState
09-02-2007, 08:51 AM
The S Fund is currently sitting almost 8% below its July 13 21.21 high. A rebound back up to this level would yield about 8.4% gain. The markets are so volatile right now that we may see large ups and downs in the near term. Get out your malox tabs folks!
I suspect it will do better come October.

Bullitt
09-05-2007, 04:39 AM
Any particular reasons why S fund should do better come Oct?

qibovin
09-05-2007, 06:13 AM
Any particular reasons why S fund should do better come Oct?Seasonality

Robo5555
09-19-2007, 09:28 AM
Mid Sept and the S fund is already rebounding.

Ed_the_Fed
09-19-2007, 05:18 PM
The S has had a nice little run. I expect to see a little pullback here in order to set up another upward run. A 15-20 point pullback on the DW4500 would be perfect. With all of the gloom and doom currently going on, sooner or later, this market run up has to stop? But until it does, I plan to make lots of money on it!

Robo5555
09-27-2007, 08:55 AM
This fund might be a good place to be for the last quarter. We should look at the posibility. It might outperform the I fund during certain streaks.

Robo5555
10-03-2007, 08:32 AM
I'll be all in S fund for Thrusday.

Ed_the_Fed
10-04-2007, 10:01 AM
I hate the noon cut off. Out here in AZ, that is 9am. I was in a meeting with a co-worker in my office, glanced up and saw it was 9:12 yesterday. I had planned to move into the S fund for today. Now will have to rethink for Friday. DW4500 has pulled back about 26% from its most recent run up 9/25 to 10/2. I keep an eye on pullback ratios to see if they meet fibonnacci trends. The previous pullback was about 45%. Ideally, I like to see a red candle with a long tail to the downside. That generally fuels a nice multi-day rally up. The DW4500 is now gone green with a nice long tail to the down side. I think I may jump back in. Have to now decide whether to go 100 S or split it with the I.

Ed_the_Fed
10-05-2007, 08:39 AM
S fund is off to a good start this morning. The question is whether to stay in for Monday or bail to the pond?

Ed_the_Fed
10-05-2007, 10:50 AM
S fund is currently up 0.24. I'll take it! A review of the chart is telling me that the S fund will probably be up on Tuesday as well but I have decided to play it safe with the Holiday weekend and move to the G. The DW4500 is currently in a nice upward trending position with higher highs following higher lows. Pretty!

Ed_the_Fed
10-08-2007, 01:08 PM
S fund is down about a half a percent today. Glad I moved to the sideline. I plan to stay in G for the next few days.

Robo5555
10-10-2007, 08:40 AM
S fund did good yesterday and down a lil so far shortly after the open. Might be a good time to jump in.

Ed_the_Fed
10-10-2007, 09:50 AM
RSI on the DW4500 has hit the 70 mark. I am weary of a pullback down to the 50 level on the RSI. The index has been almost straight up for the past 2 months or so. Could be due for a sizeable pullback (anywhere from 20 to 65 points). The index has gained about 80 points in the last two months. I think you can play it on the dips hoping for an up day following but be ready to pull out if it is down a couple of days in a row. My methods of evaluation have me on the sideline for this week. May either re-enter tomorrow COB or Friday COB but most likely in the I.

DCguy
10-12-2007, 02:22 PM
S's been doing very well, but what will happen if the fed doesn't cut interest rates?

SkyPilot
10-12-2007, 03:18 PM
S's been doing very well, but what will happen if the fed doesn't cut interest rates?

I don't think another rate cut at the next FOMC meeting is really a strong expectation at this point. If that's the case, then no cut should not have a significant impact.

As always, the way they write the minutes and the fed speak surrounding the meeting will likely have a greater impact on the market either way.

Boxholder
10-12-2007, 03:35 PM
S fund should have made +.14 today and the C +.08

Boxholder
10-12-2007, 06:48 PM
By this way of looking at it..What did S do yesterday by comparison?

Thanks
Today's final was C +.08 and S +.13
Yesterday was C -.09 and S -.17

Boxholder
10-13-2007, 12:00 AM
First of all, thank you for the patient reply.

So if I understand this correctly..If I was in S yesterday, I technically lost .17 cents/share...and if I was still in S today, I earned technically .13 cents/share...Then if I jumped out of S for another fund for Monday, that means my net loss for the Thursday and Friday was .04 cents/share...

Correct my thinking please if I'm way off..

Thanks again...
You got it, Dennis!

Ed_the_Fed
10-15-2007, 11:38 AM
Sorry I missed some of the blog late last week. I was on my RDO and was busy on a garage sale deal over Friday and Saturday mornings. I am staying put in the G fund most likely for the rest of this week but certainly for another day or two. The S Fund was due for a pullback and now it is a question of how much. After todays close, I will take a look at the chart and try to come up with some projected pullback levels (Fibonnocci). The RSI on the DW4500 was also up there hitting 70 on Wednesday. RSI of 70 usually is indicative of a pullback coming. The current RSI is 62. I would like to see that come down to around 50. That might be a good reentry area. The index was up 62.5 points since September 14 through October 11. A 20 to 40 point pullback wouldn't be out of the question. It has already pulled back almost 15.5 points with todays action so far.

As a side note, energy stocks are exploding up and are offsetting what would be bigger losses in the market. I have a portfolio of energy stock options that I am playing with. This morning, all of my current holdings eclipsed the 70 levels on RSI. I elected to sell everything and bank some huge gains of over 100%. I think the energy stocks will be pulling back and that will have a huge effect on the market possibly pulling it down with them. Once the energy stocks pull back, I will probaby buy some more long options. I am feeling wary about the markets right now.

S fund is currently down around 0.9% for the day (-$0.19).

Short term, I am in the G 100%.

Robo5555
10-15-2007, 08:57 PM
I moved from the I to the S fund for Tuesday. Think small caps will roll after todays drop. free for all!!

Ed_the_Fed
10-16-2007, 09:35 AM
I have just been doing some chart analysis and found some interesting numbers. The DW4500 has currently retraced 45% of its September 25 low, 75.7% of its October 4 low and its RSI has dropped down to 56. A drop below 50 could signal a trend change with a much larger drop towards the August lows. We have currently retraced about 18.7% of the August low. I am hoping for another upward bounce and will move into the S for tomorrow. This may be the last upleg before a much larger pullback or it may just be a continuation of the uptrend. I will keep my finger on the trigger to pull my funds if anything starts to go wrong!

DCguy
10-17-2007, 01:08 PM
hm.. C and S lost all gains in the morning and are down 1%... will probably end up in the red.. It's too late for an IFT...

fedgolfer
10-17-2007, 03:02 PM
hm.. C and S lost all gains in the morning and are down 1%... will probably end up in the red.. It's too late for an IFT...

Good thing you couldn't IFT... S fund looks like it'll get .26%.

ChemEng
10-17-2007, 04:23 PM
Anyone thinking tomorrow there will be some follow through of the last 2 hours of today's action?

SCHAGAN
10-17-2007, 04:28 PM
Anyone thinking tomorrow there will be some follow through of the last 2 hours of today's action?

I think the only reason it rebounded was because oil closed lower. It is really being a catalyst to the earnings season.

Ed_the_Fed
10-17-2007, 05:49 PM
I think tomorrow could be a good one. Keep your eye on the Nikei tonight. That will be the catalyst. Today actually came out ok with a small gain of around 1/4%.

Ed_the_Fed
10-18-2007, 01:02 PM
The S Fund just went green after being red all morning. Current estimate is up $0.03. Hope it holds. I am staying in the S fund for Friday.

Boxholder
10-18-2007, 03:27 PM
I show both C & S funds up 1 penny and F up 2 pennies today.

SCHAGAN
10-18-2007, 03:32 PM
I show both C & S funds up 1 penny and F up 2 pennies today.

The C fund will be down 1 cent.

Boxholder
10-18-2007, 03:36 PM
You're right, Schagan. I figured it, then forgot it was negative. Thanks.

Minnow
10-18-2007, 03:53 PM
Hmmm??? the C -.01, the S +.01 the I +.09 the F +.02 (or .03) anybody sensing a BIG Friday tomorrow? I am... let's keep our fingers crossed :D:D

Ed_the_Fed
10-18-2007, 05:07 PM
I even have my toes crossed.

Frixxxx
10-18-2007, 05:10 PM
Hmmm??? the C -.01, the S +.01 the I +.09 the F +.02 (or .03) anybody sensing a BIG Friday tomorrow? I am... let's keep our fingers crossed :D:D

The dollar will bounce back tomorrow....The I may even -FV....I jumped el"S"ewhere.:cool:

pethsm
10-18-2007, 06:02 PM
Hope predictions are right for Friday. If it opens up, will you do IFT and get out or will it continue up next week? Historically, last week of October is usually pretty good, but unsure if next week is the last week or the next week.

Robo5555
10-18-2007, 10:00 PM
Hmmm??? the C -.01, the S +.01 the I +.09 the F +.02 (or .03) anybody sensing a BIG Friday tomorrow? I am... let's keep our fingers crossed :D:D

I hope so....would be nice to end this crazy week on a positive note!

Minnow
10-19-2007, 08:48 AM
Minnow..I'm glad the weather missed you..I know what Stormadoes are like, living here in central OK.

Anywho, How do you compute the actual $$$ for the percentages in gains or losses, as you did here? I was hoping to learn this by seeing what peeps are doing, but I've yet to figure it out or to learn how...If it is a complex formula of various sources of input..then never mind..I'll just will wait for someone more savvy than me to reveal the daily tally such as you did here..I figure I can't learn if I don't ask though...Thanks

Hey Dennis.... today was easy...
G fund: paid on Wednesday so it wasn't going to pay the penny again that soon. (350z, James and SCHAGAN are real good at calling when the G-penny will pay again -- it's a formula I can't seem to follow whenever there is a holiday)

F fund: ended the day around .17% or so (sometimes it takes awhile to reconcile that one) therefore yesterday's "share" price 11.66 x .0017 = .01982 (round up to two pennies:))

C fund: ended the day around -.06% or so -- yesterday's "share" price 17.29 x .0006 = .0103 (don't round up)

S fund: ended the day around .05% or so -- yesterday's "share" price 20.94 x .0005 = .0104 (don't round up)

I fund: consult 350z's I fund thread (12% a year gave the EAFE link in one post) but basically look at www.mscibarra.com (http://www.mscibarra.com) EAFE index around 11:30am to 12:00pm and if there aren't any big market movements or dollar fluctuations, then that will be pretty close to accurate. just a note: for the I fund, I basically just watch 350z's thread cuz that dude is really good at calling the "I" fund for the day before the TSP board posts the returns at 7:00pm ET.

If you wanna see approximately how much money you made, then multiply the new "share" price times the number of "shares" of each fund you own. But then again, who wants to count their chickens before they hatch. As Kenny Rogers says, you never count your money, while it's sitting on the table, there'll be time enough for countin' ... when the dealings done. :nuts:

Hope this helps :D

Ed_the_Fed
10-19-2007, 10:00 AM
I am kicking myself here this morning for jumping back into the S the other day. The charts were not clear. By this I mean, it could have gone either way (continue down or rebound) and I moved back in hoping it would rebound nicely. When you look at the August 16 low of 604.38 and the October 11 high of 713.32 on the DW4500, the current pullback to 687.4 is about 24%. While it is possible that this level could hold, we could also see a substantial pullback by as much as 68%. This leaves a wide range of further drop possible. And with the RSI still above 50, that leaves a lot of downside opportunity still. Look at late July/ealry August where the RSI drop from just above 50 down to below 30 encompassed about 70 points (10% loss!!). I am bailing tonight. Not worth the risk.

DCguy
10-19-2007, 01:43 PM
wow.. bad time to be invested heavily in stock. I guess I'll just stay in S and see what'll happen next week... Will we see what happened in August in the next week? hope not.. too late for an IFT..

Birchtree
10-19-2007, 02:07 PM
Be right and sit tight. Watch Griffin, he'll show how to bleed in the S fund. He's already bled 3.6% and will do so again today.

Boxholder
10-19-2007, 05:08 PM
Looks like the C Fund lost about -.44 and the S about -.53 today. According to 350z's estimate on the I, between -.47 and -.57, depending on the -FV. I would guess the F made about 3 or 4 pennies.

Birchtree
10-19-2007, 05:45 PM
I think the "Cooler" should be held responsible for some of this mess.

Minnow
10-19-2007, 06:11 PM
Hmmm??? the C -.01, the S +.01 the I +.09 the F +.02 (or .03) anybody sensing a BIG Friday tomorrow? I am... let's keep our fingers crossed :D:D

Note to self: next time your spider senses are tingling... that's not good... yikes... good luck to all of us next week. I need a very stiff drink!!!

pethsm
10-20-2007, 05:28 AM
Ouch, Ouch, Ouch. I should have stuck to my plan, and didn't as always. I think you are better in this voliatile market, to stay in G, and wait for these drops, and jump in. Then ride it up 3-4% and get out and wait patiently again. Did I Do it? No... today hurt.

Oh well, hope for a big run up next week.

Robo5555
10-21-2007, 10:57 AM
Negative...why?.......you'all will be back to where you were in no time. The G fund is always there if you can't handle this type of storms. Most of us have been through this many times. No big deal. Better days ahead!

Ed_the_Fed
10-22-2007, 09:58 AM
I am going to sit in G until I see a bottom. RSI has been as low as 40 today. At this point, I believe it is more likely to continue to drop to the 30 level than to go back up. Maybe by the end of the week, we will reach an entry point.

SkiUtah
10-22-2007, 12:37 PM
IMHO - Entry Point was Fridays close....


I am going to sit in G until I see a bottom. RSI has been as low as 40 today. At this point, I believe it is more likely to continue to drop to the 30 level than to go back up. Maybe by the end of the week, we will reach an entry point.

Robo5555
10-22-2007, 02:22 PM
Might be a great fund to be for the next couple of days!!

Ed_the_Fed
10-22-2007, 03:58 PM
Today's rebound and positive close look good. The next few days should tell where we stand. We may see a pullback and retest of todays low which would be another opportunity to jump in provided the low holds! I will be watching for a retest.

Robo5555
10-22-2007, 04:51 PM
Today's rebound and positive close look good. The next few days should tell where we stand. We may see a pullback and retest of todays low which would be another opportunity to jump in provided the low holds! I will be watching for a retest.

The problem is that if you miss the boat the first day in short play you miss most of the ride.

Ed_the_Fed
10-24-2007, 10:11 AM
Ugly day for the S fund. I hate the spot we are in right now. We have to make a decision by noon if we are in or out of the market and yet, the market has to decide this afternoon whether it will hold here or continue down. It looks like it could go either way IMHO. My cautious nature will keep me on the sidelines for tomorrow. On the DW4500, a retest of 670.85 is possible which is another 8 points down from current levels. If the market goes that route, the retest could be this afternoon or tomorrow. RSI is at 45ish so it still has plenty of room to drop. G fund feels like the place for me right now!

Ed_the_Fed
10-24-2007, 10:13 AM
Current estimate on S fund is down 35 cents (-1.71%).

Birchtree
10-24-2007, 10:33 AM
It's just taking back what was delivered the last two days - it's a nice opportunity for someone that is interested in a DCA program to acquire more shares at a lower price.

Ed_the_Fed
10-25-2007, 09:07 AM
After yesterdays market action, I was thinking we might have found a solid bottom and was preparing to move "All In" COB today. However, now the market is dropping. The S fund was down another 0.5% a few minutes ago. It is now rising again. I think if it holds up without breaking down further between now and 11:45, I will move to either S or C. Even now in the time it took me to write this and hold a conversation with a co-worker, it has jumped back up to only 0.17% down. Maybe we have found a bottom!

DCguy
10-26-2007, 11:22 AM
S's slowly coming down. It's still green, but lost most of its gain in the morning.

Ed_the_Fed
10-26-2007, 03:19 PM
Nice close. Looks like the S is up 0.25 or 0.26 for the day. Not sure how they treat rounding.

weatherweenie
10-31-2007, 08:01 PM
Anybody all in S for tomorrow?

Thoughts after todays rollercoaster ride?

Not quite all in, but am in 60%

Wolverine
10-31-2007, 08:05 PM
Anybody all in S for tomorrow?

Thoughts after todays rollercoaster ride?

Yes, I was all in S today as I stayed all in for tomorrow also.

Frixxxx
11-01-2007, 12:12 PM
Sniff,sniff,sniff....Do I smell rally?:cool:

Wolverine
11-02-2007, 01:53 PM
LOL........Great picture

ctkling192
11-04-2007, 07:51 AM
I've been a fed employee for about 8 years now and only changed my allocations rarely. I have been following this board since the end of Jully and have found a wealth of information. Just wanted to say thanks guys.

Ed_the_Fed
11-08-2007, 11:03 AM
I have been sitting back watching the action lately. I remain 60 S 40C. Will probably move to 100S COB Friday. I think next week might be a good one.

Wolverine
11-08-2007, 04:14 PM
I was wondering that myself, looking at the Nasdaq and then the Yahoo chart here. I couldn't believe the difference between the two.

Frixxxx
11-08-2007, 04:46 PM
I think the S closed in the green.. +.25%...am I wrong?

yes, 0.25%:cool:

Robo5555
11-30-2007, 08:48 AM
I went back to the I fund. I know this fund looks good due to being behind but not to sure about a big pop from now to years end. Then again in this market we are not even sure of today...

ContrarianJeff
12-06-2007, 10:00 AM
It looks like small-caps are outperforming large-caps big time today. Besides oversold rebounds, this is the first I've seen that in a long time. Maybe we're seeing the beginnings of a break out for the S-Fund.

hessian
12-07-2007, 04:54 PM
It looks like small-caps are outperforming large-caps big time today. Besides oversold rebounds, this is the first I've seen that in a long time. Maybe we're seeing the beginnings of a break out for the S-Fund.

Hey Contrary,
I wanted to say I've been wondering the same thing. In addition to seeing moves you mention, today of all the stock funds, S was the ONLY one to close higher! Stiil maybe a little early to say for sure, but personally I am going to start giving it my biggest play!!

nnuut
12-07-2007, 06:00 PM
Hey Contrary,
I wanted to say I've been wondering the same thing. In addition to seeing moves you mention, today of all the stock funds, S was the ONLY one to close higher! Stiil maybe a little early to say for sure, but personally I am going to start giving it my biggest play!!
The rotation between higher gains between the "C" and the "S" funds changes depending on the state of the Market. You have to Analise the Market on a daily basis to predict which fund is HOT and which fund is NOT!:cool:

chezhoy
12-27-2007, 06:47 PM
I wish they would create one for the NASDAQ. I know some of the NASDAQ stocks like Apple are in the S&P 500. Am I missing something?

hessian
12-31-2007, 08:16 PM
Hi Paladin,
Hope my response today in my new AcctTalk was adequate. It was just that a bunch of folks all hit asking questions at once...

To your qustion, I found out (the hard way) that different sources have different lookup symbols for the same Funds/Indexes (or often similar, but incorrect!!). You will find the correct symbol on SharpCharts for S is $EMW. On Yahoo, I believe DWCP (but don't quote me, because I've learned to pick one source and stick with it). Its likely yet a symbol with other sources like Google (no idea why).

To illustrate, 350 just informed me that on SharpCharts, I should have used $NDX for the Nasdaq 100 Index (not $COMPQ -"NASDAQ Composite" was the name given there). Well, at least I continue to learn! -I'll try to be more careful in future.

To see how confusing it can be, go to this SharpCharts link... http://stockcharts.com/symsearch?nasdaq at the top use its search - notice that I got 79 hits for NASDAQ!!! [Which would you have selected? >try the search >at the "Style" dropdown >select "Lookup Symbol", then at >"Symbol" choose something to enter (if you're unsure just enter NASDAQ, or any of your choice). Now honestly, how is anyone to know which one without help?! :)
Hope this helps!
VR

Birchtree
01-07-2008, 07:51 PM
The year 2007 will be the first time since 1998 that small-cap stocks have posted lower returns than large stocks. That would end an 8 year streak of outperformance for small stocks, second only to a 10-year run from 1974 through 1983. These market cycles are not short lived.

Show-me
01-07-2008, 09:23 PM
VXF is a ETF that tracks it also.

alevin
01-10-2008, 09:13 AM
I tried to use both EMW and VXF in Big Charts. VCF will work, EMW does not. I finally have something useable besides DWCFP to keep backtrack on S longer than 5 days! thank you Show-me.


VXF is a ETF that tracks it also.

justbizness45
10-05-2008, 08:37 PM
I posted this on my thread but wanted to ask the question here also"

I am thinking about changing my stock exposure from 50/50 C/S to 100C based on the credit lockup. Small businesses are probably having a hard time getting credit (I saw this on someone elses thread but I don't remember who to give credit to). I would appreciate any thoughts from other members on the validity of a strong "S" bounce or not.

Fivetears
10-08-2008, 12:38 AM
S fund has lost $4.83 in share value over the last 12 days. :blink:

Guest2
10-08-2008, 12:48 AM
I tried to use both EMW and VXF in Big Charts. VCF will work, EMW does not. I finally have something useable besides DWCFP to keep backtrack on S longer than 5 days! thank you Show-me.

Put a $ sign in front of EMW ,,,,,,, or $EMW
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$emw

InvertedNyBot
10-08-2008, 12:52 AM
See
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDWCPF&t=5d

this 5-day chart should include Fri Oct 3. (day of interest).

Notice the __400 Million__ share spike in the morning before the market sold the news about the Bailout passing Congress.

Is this a multi-billion dollar short position?

Seeing this makes me want to stay clear of the S fund for several quarters at least -- I don't care how low it goes, even less than $10.

--
Mark

Braveheart
10-09-2008, 03:50 AM
I posted this on my thread but wanted to ask the question here also"

I am thinking about changing my stock exposure from 50/50 C/S to 100C based on the credit lockup. Small businesses are probably having a hard time getting credit (I saw this on someone elses thread but I don't remember who to give credit to). I would appreciate any thoughts from other members on the validity of a strong "S" bounce or not.

Only the Strong Shall Survive - C Fund vs. S Fund = C Fund at least for the next month IMO. The small caps need money which they don't have to stay in business. The small caps were loaded in hedge funds who are dumping right now since their market has been called by the Banks and the panic sells.

When you see BAC drop and Goldman drop huge the past 2 days that would make me worry about all stocks esp. the S Fund. If you notice the past 2 days the S Fund has dropped much more than the C Fund.

I also heard a very large Hedge Fund dumped at a loss yesterday 4 million shares of stocks.

mick504
10-10-2008, 04:22 AM
I don't have any fancy charts, analyzeeeeze info to say but I figure that since the financials were and are being beat up or down if you prefer the most, and they are in the C mostly; I would say (they)....the C will come back the fastest! However the difference between the S and C in the climb may not differ substantially over time. When I decide to move from the G...which may be soon....I'm puting in all in the C. Good Luck in your choice.

Birchtree
10-10-2008, 09:31 AM
In 2003 the S fund had a 43% gain off that triple bottom - I don't believe they (small caps) will outperform this time around. C fund has been my choice since 2004.

Minnow
10-10-2008, 12:26 PM
Yahoo finally got their DWCPF (S fund) to reflect the correct valuations.

weatherweenie
10-10-2008, 12:34 PM
Yahoo finally got their DWCPF (S fund) to reflect the correct valuations.

What a relief! It's only down 5.6% :laugh:

Minnow
10-10-2008, 12:36 PM
What a relief! It's only down 5.6% :laugh:

Should've given the following caveat... "it still ain't pretty!" :laugh: