The Hindenburg Omen

[Show-me]

Hindenburg Omen
http://i.investopedia.com/inv/dictionary/1.gifA technical indicator (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/HindenburgOmen.asp#) named after the famous crash of the German airship of the late 1930s. The Hindenburg omen was developed to predict the potential for a financial market crash. It is created by monitoring the number of securities that form new 52-week highs relative to the number of securities that form new 52-week lows - the number of securities must be abnormally large. This criteria is deemed to be met when both numbers are greater than 2.2% of the total number of issues that trade on the NYSE (for that specific day). http://i.investopedia.com/inv/dictionary/2.gifTraders (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/HindenburgOmen.asp#) use an abnormally high number of 52-week highs/lows because it suggests that market participants are starting to become unsure of the market's future direction and therefore could be due for a major correction. Proponents of this indicator argue that it has been very accurate in predicting sharp sell-offs in the past and that there are few indicators that can predict a market crash as accurately.

[Show-me]

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BDA451070-3B84-4BCE-ADAD-11B3D26FDE87%7D&siteid=mktw (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BDA451070-3B84-4BCE-ADAD-11B3D26FDE87%7D&siteid=mktw)

http://www.safehaven.com/article-3880.htm

[Show-me]

Blackstone IPO…a sign of a top in the Market?
Meanwhile, another action associated with a market top is the Blackstone Group's initial public offering of its stock (IPO). This is the largest public offering since 2002 (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070621/pl_nm/blackstone_ipo_dc_7), bringing in $4.13 billion. Is the smart money cashing out? (http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A9j8euzL4ntGlnUBBQPQtDMD;_ylu=X3oDMTBjb3ZrYjN kBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNzcg--/SIG=14adrcl1t/EXP=1182610507/**http%3a/www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx%3fcpath=20070617%255cACQDJON2007061 71945DOWJONESDJONLINE000328.htm%26)
A second Hindenburg sighting...and a third!
Yesterday's market gave us a second Hindenburg Omen (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen)sighting…and today's activity in the market may give us yet a third zeppelin sighting. This now confirms the probability of a major decline in the next 120 days. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%. (Source: Wikepedia.com)
The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. :blink::worried::eek::eek:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1349.html

[Birchtree]

The Ducati is oiled and ready to ride the next cycle purge - so let's walk the talk and bring it. My bet is 1400 Dow before the end of July - providing the Fed changes their wording some. They are data dependent and the data is looking fine.

[tsptalk]

My bet is 1400 Dow before the end of July - providing the Fed changes their wording some.
And I thought you were bullish. :D

[budnipper1]

I hope that's a typo...:worried:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Birchtree http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=100611#post100611)
My bet is 1400 Dow before the end of July - providing the Fed changes their wording some.


And I thought you were bullish. :D

[Griffin]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-3880.htm

Read through the stats on this thing. A Hindenburg event can be as little as 5% to register (i.e. something like we saw in February) and the time frames from signal to event can lag as much a 4 months.

This indicator is about as useful for us as: "What goes up must come down" :laugh:

[Griffin]

That's the only reason we know of it :notrust:. If it was called the Apollo 13 Omen, people would ignore it :D.


You have to admit though that it does have a scary name. :blink:

The Hindenburg Omen
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/84/Hindenburg_burning.jpg/300px-Hindenburg_burning.jpg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hindenburg_burning.jpg)

[tsptalk]

I just got an Andria Doria signal. :D

I actually like these historical pattern signals.

[NTXDiver]

Well....at least everyone is cheery while this little debacle 'warms up' !!
Markets look pretty good for the moment though :worried:

[nnuut]

Don't look now!:sick:

[Birchtree]

It was a typo - I meant 14,000. Let the good times of summer begin.

[Show-me]

Link courtesy of Birchtree.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7823.htm

The Dow Industrials Drop 185 Points Friday, the day after we got a Confirmed Hindenburg Omen
by Robert McHugh
http://www.safehaven.com/images/pixel.gifThe Dow Industrials fell sharply again, down 185.58 points to close at 13,360.26 Friday. Volume was huge on the decline in all major averages, which is not good. NYSE volume was 134 percent of its 10 day average, with downside volume leading at 78 percent, with declining issues at 74 percent, with S&P 500 downside points leading at a near panic 89 percent. NYSE New 52 week Highs came in at 88, with New Lows at 73, and for all intents and purposes, we got a third Hindenburg Omen Friday.

The Dow Industrials Drop 185 Points Friday, the day after we got a Confirmed Hindenburg Omen
by Robert McHugh
http://www.safehaven.com/images/pixel.gifThe Dow Industrials fell sharply again, down 185.58 points to close at 13,360.26 Friday. Volume was huge on the decline in all major averages, which is not good. NYSE volume was 134 percent of its 10 day average, with downside volume leading at 78 percent, with declining issues at 74 percent, with S&P 500 downside points leading at a near panic 89 percent. NYSE New 52 week Highs came in at 88, with New Lows at 73, and for all intents and purposes, we got a third Hindenburg Omen Friday.

Oftentimes equities will rally after a Hindenburg Omen occurs, faking folks out, then the plunge comes on the other side of the hilltop. 1987 is a perfect example of that, as was 2006.

[Birchtree]

"It is the presence of this Hindenburg Omen that makes us take Tuesday's plunge very seriously."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7935.htm

[Show-me]

So Where Are the Dow Industrials Headed?

Mon, Jul 9 2007, 14:32 GMT
by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
Main Line Investors, Inc. (http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contributors/contributor.aspx?Id=c2b1db62-7c0a-4a82-954e-4de7a6af76a1)



Short term, the Dow Industrials are approaching an Intermediate term top. However, there is evidence that suggests more upside is likely over the next few weeks, leading to that top. The below pattern in the Dow Industrials is an Ascending Expanding Wedge, with diverging upper and lower boundaries, which suggests a top here of significance. Once complete, prices can be expected to drop to about the start of the pattern, at a minimum, meaning into the 9,000s over the intermediate-term, although if the PPT responds by hyperinflating the money supply, it could be 9,000 in real dollars (gold adjusted), not nominal. A confirmed Hindenburg Omen remains on the clock until October, 2007.

http://www.fxstreet.com/futures/market-review/financial-markets-forecast-and-analysis/2007-07-09.html

[James48843]

Thursday was third wave up.


Keep in mind the Hindenberg.

Any day now....

(this photo of the Hindenberg crashing edited out by request of some viewers.)

[Bullitt]

Short term, the Dow Industrials are approaching an Intermediate term top. However, there is evidence that suggests more upside is likely over the next few weeks, leading to that top.

What is that guy's articulable reason for a top? A major problem with technical analysis is that people overdo it and draw trendlines that are insignificant. The only significant line will be whether or not 1540 is our new support. Picking tops is too much guesswork. IBD has been recommending caution for about 11 months now.

[James48843]

Time to bring this thread back to life?

[weatherweenie]

Time to bring this thread back to life?

Yep, you beat a drum long enough and you're bound to be right, sooner or later. :rolleyes:

[James48843]

It was reported that there was a third Hindenberg Omen yesterday.

Can anyone provide a link to confirm?

[Show-me]

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/S&P+500-market+crash-Hindenburg+Omen-breadth-wide-divergence/index/a/14554

[James48843]

And here:

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp

Dang- how did we miss that?

Third Hindenberg Omen.


Everybody- expect a nice big fall from here!

[qibovin]

Third Hindenberg Omen.


Everybody- expect a nice big fall from here!
Doesn't the original back in June expire after 120 days?
And didn't we already have a >5% (9.7%) decline?
Is this the start of a new omen or a continuation?
Any data on occurances this far apart?

[tsptalk]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-3882.htm

"Hindenburg Omens are relatively rare. In checking them from 1997, going back to 1970, Jim found that they usually occurred prior to major declines, with relatively few false signals. Sometimes two or three signals occurred in a row, within days of each other. I consider that a signal expires 30 days after its last occurrence, unless a decline has taken place within that time. There was only one signal before the 7% drop in October of 1989, but there were several days of signals in both 1987, and again in June- July before the 20% drop into October, 1990. There were several before the 10% drop in March 1994."

[Show-me]

A reminder of the Omen. Does not always come true but when you see one use caution.

[alevin]

I will be giving Hindenburgs strong consideration forever after from here on out as sell/wait signal. I've learned from brute experience the last 3 months not to brush them off. I had been out in late October, but went back in 10%C,10%S first week of Nov (Sentiment Survey indicator? don't remember why now). Unfortunately I stayed in all the way til a couple weeks ago. It hurt. At least I stopped the pain lately, but currently poised on knife edge what to do with token F holding between now and upturn in stocks, whenever that happens.

[Bullitt]

(Begin humming Dark Side theme from Star Wars before continuing reading)

We got our second Hindenburg Omen of the month yesterday from Dr Doom and Gloom (Robert McHugh). Probability of a panic sell is 41% and the big crash is 24%.

Did you buy your SDS today at the sucker's gap up? Maybe I should have waited on re-balancing my portfolio last week!

Last summer when the Hindenburg came to town, the Dow shed 185 the next day.


So what is a Hindenburg Omen?It is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market - specifically the NYSE - such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high. This Omen has appeared before all of the stock market crashes, or panic events, of the past 22 years.All of them. No panic sell-off occurred over the past 22 years without the presence of a Hindenburg Omen. Another way of looking at it is, without a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, we are pretty safe. But we have one as of June 22nd, 2007. The way Peter Eliades put it in his Daily Update, September 21, 2005 (Peter is well worth the read, believe me), "The rationale behind the indicator is that, under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows - but not both." When both new highs and new lows are large, "it indicates the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence - many stocks establishing new highs and many setting new lows as well. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising prices. A healthy market requires some semblance of internal uniformity, and it doesn't matter what direction that uniformity takes. Many new highs and very few lows is obviously bullish, but so is a great many new lows accompanied by few or no new highs. This is the condition that leads to important market bottoms."http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mchugh062407pv.html

The saga continues...

[nnuut]

Hindenburg Omen, I ain't scared of no Hindenburg Omen!! And we don't need no "Stinkin' Badges Senior". Doe's that sound like I'm speaking from the heart? Sometimes the HO is real, most of the time it's NOT!:cool:

[Fivetears]

VqomZQMZQCQ
...And we don't need no "Stinkin' Badges Senior".

[Show-me]

Oh, goodie! Thank you so much for the update as I have been way out of the loop the last few weeks.

[James48843]

I missed any talk of Hindenburg Omen.

If that is in fact the case, that aligns with other indicators as well- P&F says down ahead. If there's a Hindenberg going on, then it's all hands to the lifeboats.

[luv2read]

twice in the past week Bullyboy.

[James48843]

I'm TDY so I missed it before just now. Thanks.

Yes, the P&F chart is also showing a revised downward estimated price objective. I can't post it up from here right now (location, eh? ) but it is now showing 1230 as the downside target figure.

I didn't believe that when I saw it earlier today. But if there is a double hindenburg omen, I believe it.

I'm on the sidelines now- and will keep it there until the dive comes. See you in the mid 1200's. If it happens - and goes back into the mid 1200's- I'm diving back in then.

If not, then, well, the sidelines is a nice place to be today.

[airlift]

The article that Corepuncher posted in his thread is sufficient grounds to at least consider very seriously that the Hindenburg Omen might be a reality soon to occur. The article relates to the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) advising its clients to be aware of the potential crash. Coming from this institution, one must take this very seriously and consider capital preservation during the summer and through September at least! Bankers are realists and not usually doomsayers...

"RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage."


twice in the past week Bullyboy.

[XL-entLady]

"Economic woes are expected to continue until at least mid-2009, and things may get worse before they get better, according to a quarterly survey of chief financial officers. "This could be the longest slowdown since the double dip recession of 1979-81," John Graham, director of the survey, told CNNMoney.com."

And some more Happy Talk. :sick: G Fund is lookin' pret-ty go-o-od!

Lady

[Christopher]

Some sunshine, in light of so many gloomy forecasts:

"In the second halves of all presidential election years over the past 110 years, the Dow has gained an average of 9.7%. In the second halves of all other years, in contrast, the Dow's second-half gain has been 2.7%, or barely more than a quarter as much. This difference turns out to be marginally significant from a statistical point of view."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/historical-precedents-rest-year/story.aspx?guid=%7BDEF80991%2DB50F%2D4787%2DA867%2 DDED7AF8F88C4%7D&siteid=yhoof ;)

[Bullitt]

The latest from McHugh. Omen setup still in progress.


Still, it is interesting that even with the heavy liquidity the Fed has been pumping around the time of the past two signals, the odds of a 5 percent decline or more remain pretty high at 76.9 percent.http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/mchugh070408.html

[tsptalk]

The latest from McHugh. Omen setup still in progress.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/mchugh070408.html


... the NYSE 10 Week Moving Average is also Rising, which we consider met if it is higher than the level 10 weeks earlier
I wonder how he is determining the 10-week MA? Looking at a weekly chart of the NYSE, the 10-week simple MA does not appear to be higher. It is now 9384, where you can see below that is has been falling for months. That is also true when you use the exponential MA. Maybe my assumption that a 50-day MA is the same as a 10-week MA (10 x 5 days?) is wrong.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/temp/nyse.gif

[Bullitt]

Tom, you may be sensing my sarcasm when it comes to Mr. McHugh. I read that thing twice and the theory is less clear to me now than before. I understand the rational behind a prelude to a drop when the market is rising and the A/D Line is declining, but that's about it.

How many crashes have we seen since the Hindenburg's inception? Maybe 2? Data mining at it's finest but you've gotta love it.

[Christopher]

WELLLLLLL.......so much for THAT "marginally significant" statistic! :o SO MANY stats have been kicked to the curb this year - Friday's anticipated (statistical) sizable 'bump' could turn out to be a sizable 'burp' instead...

There's a ton of green in the markets today, floating atop a sea of red that's swirling around us like a whirlpool. Locked gains for 2008, moved from 50/25/0/0/25 G/F/C/S/I to 100% G before noon - the sun will come out..."TOMORROW"!

Happy New Years cheers to everyone...may your 2009 be blessed with lives full of health and vigor, and relationships full of love, truth, and honor. Real prosperity doesn't exist without these...

Please consider a year-end donation to the charity of your choice... :)

Christopher


Some sunshine, in light of so many gloomy forecasts:

"In the second halves of all presidential election years over the past 110 years, the Dow has gained an average of 9.7%. In the second halves of all other years, in contrast, the Dow's second-half gain has been 2.7%, or barely more than a quarter as much. This difference turns out to be marginally significant from a statistical point of view."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/historical-precedents-rest-year/story.aspx?guid=%7BDEF80991%2DB50F%2D4787%2DA867%2 DDED7AF8F88C4%7D&siteid=yhoof ;)

[Bullitt]

Still no signs of a Hindenburg Omen yet.

[James48843]

Still no signs of a Hindenburg Omen yet.

So your're a believer now I take it. I know I am!

Yep- they are pretty rare. But when one rear's it's ugly head look out .

[airlift]

When was the last time that a Hindenburg Omen occurred?

[James48843]

When was the last time that a Hindenburg Omen occurred?


June of 08- with Dow at 12000 and falling.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=168389&postcount=33

it began to fall off a cliff shortly after that.

Ended up falling down to 6469 (March 09) after that, before reversing.

[airlift]

Thank you. We have to be on our toes.

[Bullitt]

I think the jury is still out. I wouldn't call this thing "precise" based off the historical occurrences in the link below.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=13753

McHugh says it's time to start preparing for the catastrophic wave C down.

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp

[James48843]

Well, I'll tell you all what. The last time the Hindenberg Omen came up in conversaton, I missed it because I was TDY, and not watching closely.

From here on out- if ANYONE sees anything written saying that a Hindenberg Omen is occuring, Please- BY ALL MEANS- send me a PM and let me know.

Thanks to all for the future.

[Bullitt]

We'll watch your six James.

Honestly, I'm thinking one is looming on the horizon.

[Bullitt]

For those who are a bit rattled after today's selloff, I'm not sure if this guy remembers he posted this blog entry or plans on updating it, but it's worth monitoring.


I will be keeping a lookout for the Hindenburg Omen since NO MAJOR DECLINE has started without one over the past 25 years. Needless to say, one did occur at the start of the primary run down.http://hit-the-bid.blogspot.com/2009/06/calculating-hindenburg-omen-indicator.html

[Bullitt]

So we have rules number 1 and 2, waiting for more new 52 week lows to be made. This will require a sell-off of a portion, or sector of the index to start throwing it out of balance. Nothing that will happen over night.

Rule number 3, the 10 week MA is satisfied, and will stay there for awhile.

Rule number 4 needs to be checked daily, but one should not concern themselves until we start seeing more 52 week lows.

Rule number 5, can not even kick in until rules number 1 and 2 are satisfied.

...The best thing to do for now is to keep your eyes on the weaker sectors...As the lows start increasing I am sure it will fill the blogs with chat, and most will be aware of an approaching Hindenburg Omen before it gets confirmed.http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/2009/10/hindenburg-omen.html

[Birchtree]

I've been run over by several Hindenburg Omens in the past - not any fun. Thanks Bullitt for the educational information.

[Bullitt]

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. Anybody else hear those zeppelin engines humming in the distance?

[tsptalk]

Can we go over the Omen rules again? I forget.


So we have rules number 1 and 2, waiting for more new 52 week lows to be made. This will require a sell-off of a portion, or sector of the index to start throwing it out of balance. Nothing that will happen over night.

Rule number 3, the 10 week MA is satisfied, and will stay there for awhile.

Rule number 4 needs to be checked daily, but one should not concern themselves until we start seeing more 52 week lows.

Rule number 5, can not even kick in until rules number 1 and 2 are satisfied.

...The best thing to do for now is to keep your eyes on the weaker sectors...As the lows start increasing I am sure it will fill the blogs with chat, and most will be aware of an approaching Hindenburg Omen before it gets confirmed.

[Bullitt]

The 52 week lows should start rolling in sooner than later. The rally was so sharp off the oversold March lows that 52 week lows have been a far cry all along- until now.

[tsptalk]

Thanks. I should have just looked at the first post. :)

Hindenburg Omen
A technical indicator (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/HindenburgOmen.asp#) named after the famous crash of the German airship of the late 1930s. The Hindenburg omen was developed to predict the potential for a financial market crash.

It is created by monitoring the number of securities that form new 52-week highs relative to the number of securities that form new 52-week lows - the number of securities must be abnormally large. This criteria is deemed to be met when both numbers are greater than 2.2% of the total number of issues that trade on the NYSE (for that specific day).

Traders (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/HindenburgOmen.asp#) use an abnormally high number of 52-week highs/lows because it suggests that market participants are starting to become unsure of the market's future direction and therefore could be due for a major correction. Proponents of this indicator argue that it has been very accurate in predicting sharp sell-offs in the past and that there are few indicators that can predict a market crash as accurately.

[Bullitt]

Ayyy-O!

Not from the doctor himself, but apparently this persons numbers say we've had more than one. I am surprised it took this long to get the signal seeing how big the run up was off March 2009's lows, but here they come. Remember, there is no such thing as 'one perfect indicator'.


The Hindenburg Omen showed itself again for the second consecutive day which confirms the signal that the market is likely to achieve at least a ten percent correction in the next few months. The last time we had a confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal was in May 2008. We can all remember what happened from that point.http://www.safehaven.com/article/17822/bounce-but-hindenburg-omen-reappears

[James48843]

Here is another report that says Hindenberg Omen:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-13/-hindenburg-omen-suggests-another-leg-down-in-stocks-technical-analysis.html

It's too late to do anything today- BUT

I will take a good look at this over the weekend and most likely bail out Monday.


Everybody- pay attention- if this really is a Hindenberg Omen it's time to look seriously at the lifeboats, and quick.

[Birchtree]

Really?

[Bullitt]

Something to keep in mind here is that a brokerage house (Schaeffer's) will NEVER tell you to go to 100% cash. That's like Apple coming out and telling you not to buy an iPhone. It is always in the best interest of Wall Street for the individual investor to stay invested while the bank proprietary accounts run to cash. The only way for this indicator to trip is for institutional money to be selling and going to cash/bonds.


Hindenburg Omen Flashes

Its creator, a blind mathematician named Jim Miekka, said his indicator is now predicting a market meltdown in September.

The Omen was behind every market crash since 1987, but also has occurred many other times without an ensuing significant downturn. Market analysts said only about 25% of Omen appearances have led to stock-market declines that can be considered crashes.

"The Hindenburg Omen does show some deteriorating internals, which signals some major concerns," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "But it isn't a reason to move to 100% in cash. We're taking a wait-and-see approach, but considering its recent history, we're considering it more than other indicators."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703321004575427791421316112.html?K EYWORDS=hindenburg

Something to keep in mind here is that a brokerage house will NEVER tell you to go to 100% cash. That's like Apple coming out and telling you not to buy an iPhone.

[Warrenlm]

But remember, even if this really is this thing, the potential additional downside may not be as great as the name implies. ........Right? I think I heard that from someone paid a lot of money to yak on CNBC.

[Boghie]

I'll hide 100% of my assets in the 'G Fund' because something that is correct 25% of the time tells me to...

:nuts:

[coolhand]

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2010/08/hindenburg-omen-tracking-chart.html

[James48843]

August 23, 2010, 2:01 PM ET

Yes Folks, Hindenburg Omen Tripped Again

The Hindenburg Omen reared its ugly head late last week, signaling more doom and gloom as stocks plod along amid the dog days of summer.
The Omen, a technical indicator which uses a plethora of data to foreshadow a stock-market crash, was tripped again on Friday, marking the second time since Aug. 12 it has occurred. (It also came close on Thursday, but one of its criteria fell short.)

The latest trigger has prompted the Omen’s creator, Jim Miekka, to exit the market. “I’m taking it seriously and I’m fully out of the market now,” Miekka, a blind mathematician, said in a telephone interview from his home in Surry, Maine. “I would’ve probably stayed in until the beginning of September,” depending on how the indicators varied. “That was my basic plan, until the Hindenburg came along.”

more: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/08/23/yes-folks-hindenburg-omen-tripped-again/

( I am moving out today. )

[Bullitt]

I wonder how the creator feels about this attention since he seems like a humble guy to me. As for the Wall Streeters who say 'bah Humbug' to this signal, understand this: We have been in a downtrend for the past 4 months.

Take a look at how commercial the Omen has become, but some astute TSP'ers were able to start threads about it before the Omen jumped the shark. (chart courtesy Google Trends) Parabolic.


http://www.google.com/trends/viz?q=hindenburg+omen&graph=weekly_img&sa=N

[tsptalk]

That's one reason why I mentioned in my commentary this week, that it may not "work" this time. I mentioned that I saw it on a Drudge Report headline and Glenn Beck mentioned it on a show this past week. Glenn has been pretty good with some political and economic predictions, but I don't think I want to hear him giving technical indicators.

It's kind of like when our barbers were recommending buying shares of .com stocks - time to sell. :)

By the way, I am currently out of stocks and would actually like to see a little crach / sell-off to take advantage of. But this type of bearish exposure scares me to think that I may not get that chance.

[Steel_Magnolia]

CXO Advisory Group, which tries to objectively analyze financial ideas using scientific methods, published an article recently on the Hindenburg Omen.

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/technical-trading/hindenburg-omens/

The article couches its conclusion in the proper scientific weasel-words, but bottom line according to CXO is that the omen is of dubious help.

"In summary, evidence from simple tests of a publicly available set of “confirmed” Hindenburg Omens suggests the possibility of usefulness, but reservations regarding small sample size and potential sample bias are strong."

Maggie

[Show-me]

Simply the Hindenburg has a 25% chance of a major market decline. With all the attention it may effect the short term dynamics, but the intermediate term to long term seem to show real risk.

FOMC is posturing in advance, hmmmmm. I love statements like GDP was revised down but was better than expected. My take, you were wrong not once but twice. Why should we believe you this time?:nuts:

[tsptalk]

FOMC is posturing in advance, hmmmmm. I love statements like GDP was revised down but was better than expected. My take, you were wrong not once but twice. Why should we believe you this time?:nuts:
Agree. This is their way of saying, the market was selling off on the rumor of a downward revision, but you can buy the news since it was not as bad as we thought. But if that's the good news, we could be in trouble.

[Bullitt]

Love or hate the Hindenburg but take a step back and look where the majors are right now compared to August 13th when we got our first Omen alert. Yeah. Bulls haven't got much of an argument here as the market has done NOTHING since then.

[Birchtree]

Yesterday, internally, there were 248 new NYSE highs and only 9 lows. Someting is happening under the radar.

[Show-me]

Hindenburg Omen Blog - April 24, 2012 - Albertarocks - Seeking Alpha (http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/357305-albertarocks/543261-hindenburg-omen-blog-april-24-2012)

Don't Ignore This Chart!: Hindenburg Omen Triggers as New Lows Surge (http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2012/07/hindenburg-omen-triggers-as-new-lows-surge-nyhl-nahl-nya.html)

[bmneveu]

Albertarocks' TA Discussions (http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.ca/)

This guy is saying the first official HO signal since August, 2010 came today, and just barely at the close. I followed the blog pretty closely today as he updated a few times throughout with the Highs/Lows count. Seems pretty legit. And the stats he posts are pretty scary. They are based on past performance of the signal, so no speculation. Here is his clearest description of the odds:

Major Crash - 27% probability
Selling panic of at least 10-15% - 39% probability
Sharp decline of at least 8-10% - 54% probability
Meaningful decline of at least 5-8% - 77% probability
Mild decline of at least 2-5% - 92% probability
The HO signal is an outright miss - 7.7% probability (one out of 13 times)

[FAB1]

Ooo scary well we have the mild decline behind us already. oh the huge manatee!

[tsptalk]

Hindenburg Omen Creator: ‘I’m Hunkering Down for Possible Rough Ride’

"In a chat with MoneyBeat Sunday evening, Jim Miekka — a blind former high-school physics teacher and the newsletter writer who devised the Hindenburg Omen — confirmed all the criteria were met on Friday that triggered the indicator. He said he’s still invested in the market, for now, and is waiting for “a strong up day this week” before he gets out of stocks and potentially starts shorting the market."

Hindenburg Omen Creator: 'I'm Hunkering Down for Possible Rough Ride' - MoneyBeat - WSJ (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/06/03/hindenburg-omen-creator-im-hunkering-down-for-possible-rough-ride/)

[James48843]

That's it. I'm bailing out.


The Hindenberg Omen has proven enough to me over time that I seriously think it bears paying attention to. Yes, it's playing on my fears- but I'll go with it today and bail out just based on the second occurance as outlined above.


Thanks for posting, Tom. I hadn't seen it before, and am bailing now.

[bmneveu]

Hindenburg Omen Creator: ‘I’m Hunkering Down for Possible Rough Ride’

"In a chat with MoneyBeat Sunday evening, Jim Miekka — a blind former high-school physics teacher and the newsletter writer who devised the Hindenburg Omen — confirmed all the criteria were met on Friday that triggered the indicator. He said he’s still invested in the market, for now, and is waiting for “a strong up day this week” before he gets out of stocks and potentially starts shorting the market."

Hindenburg Omen Creator: 'I'm Hunkering Down for Possible Rough Ride' - MoneyBeat - WSJ (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/06/03/hindenburg-omen-creator-im-hunkering-down-for-possible-rough-ride/)

That's 2 signals in exactly a month and a half.

[James48843]

FIVE instances of the Hindenberg Omen within a very short period of time.

Even the TV guys have noted it.

Cashin: Hindenburg Omen Now Raising Alert Flags - Video on NBCNews.com (http://www.nbcnews.com/video/cnbc/52168193#52168193)

Danger- danger- danger.

She's going down.

24071

[tsptalk]

If you missed it, see today's commentary for prior instances of 5 HO signals in a 2 week period.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/2466-pause-another-omen.html

[law87]

FIVE instances of the Hindenberg Omen within a very short period of time.

Even the TV guys have noted it.

Cashin: Hindenburg Omen Now Raising Alert Flags - Video on NBCNews.com (http://www.nbcnews.com/video/cnbc/52168193#52168193)

Danger- danger- danger.

She's going down.

24071


if people expect it, it wont happen.

[bmneveu]

HO issued another signal this past Wednesday, June 19. Quite a cluster for something that doesn't officially happen very often (last official event was August 2010). And it will stop posting signals soon when the 50 day MA turns south, as it has to be moving up for the HO system to be "online" and able to issue a signal.

April 15th - First signal since August '10. The following 3 days also come very close to each recording a signal.

May 31st - Second signal issued. Too many days after first signal to start an official event (missed by 4 trading days).

June 4th - 3rd signal. Being within 30 trading days of previous signal, this "confirming" signal starts the official HO event.

June 10th - Another redundant signal.
June 13th - Very close to another.
June 19th - Another redundant signal.

24229
FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free (http://www.freestockcharts.com)

Here are the stats again, based on past results:

Major Crash - 27% probability
Selling panic of at least 10-15% - 39% probability
Sharp decline of at least 8-10% - 54% probability
Meaningful decline of at least 5-8% - 77% probability
Mild decline of at least 2-5% - 92% probability
The HO signal is an outright miss - 7.7% probability (one out of 13 times)
Albertarocks' TA Discussions (http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.ca/)

June 4th was the official start of the HO event. The S&P closed at 1631 that day. On Thursday we hit a low of 1584, a sell off of 47 points, or 2.9%. The HO said there was a 92% chance of that happening. Unfortunately, odds are we are heading even further south. We have a 77% chance of dropping at least another 2-5%. Ouch.

[James48843]

I am looking for another 5 to 8% for a nice place to jump back in.

80% of my holdings are out of stocks right now, and have been since the 3rd.

thank you for the Omen heads up-it saved me lots of bucks.

[bmneveu]

I am looking for another 5 to 8% for a nice place to jump back in.

80% of my holdings are out of stocks right now, and have been since the 3rd.

thank you for the Omen heads up-it saved me lots of bucks.

Wish I could say the same. I moved "out of the way" to the F fund and am still getting hammered! :rolleyes:

[Bquat]

Wish I could say the same. I moved "out of the way" to the F fund and am still getting hammered! :rolleyes: Yeah I'm right there with you buddy. I didn't realize the threat of stopping the money pump would effect the F fund also.:embarrest:

[bmneveu]

By the way, as of this morning -- The Hindenburg Omen is officially offline and not issuing any new signals due to the 50 day MA turning south at the open.

Don't mistake this for thinking we are in the clear though. We are still very much in the thick of the event.

Edit: Which is possibly coinciding perfectly with Tom's 1987 chart comparison.

[bmneveu]

Is the event over? If so, I would say the HO signal was a success, calling a decent correction of 4.8% from 1652 to 1573.

[Birchtree]

A correction doesn't happen until we lose 10% or more - we experienced a mild consolidation. If the Kress cycles are important hell arrives in 2014.

[tsptalk]

Is the event over? If so, I would say the HO signal was a success, calling a decent correction of 4.8% from 1652 to 1573.
Close...

"From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%"

"Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines."

- WSJ

[bmneveu]

Albertarocks' TA Discussions: Hindenburg Omen Fires Off Another Volley (http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/2013/08/hindenburg-omen-fires-off-another-volley.html#disqus_thread)

HO signals reported for August 5th and August 6th.

[uscfanhawaii]

Albertarocks' TA Discussions: Hindenburg Omen Fires Off Another Volley (http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/2013/08/hindenburg-omen-fires-off-another-volley.html#disqus_thread)

HO signals reported for August 5th and August 6th.

I know I'm jumping the gun here, but I can't wait.....any new HO for 8-7?

I am sitting on the fence as to whether now is a good dip buying opportunity or not. :blink:

[bmneveu]

I know I'm jumping the gun here, but I can't wait.....any new HO for 8-7?

I am sitting on the fence as to whether now is a good dip buying opportunity or not. :blink:

I haven't seen anything yet, but I'm lookin' for ya

[James48843]

oh fiddlesticks- not another round of ho's! yuk.

[tsptalk]

Albertarocks' TA Discussions: Hindenburg Omen Fires Off Another Volley (http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.com/2013/08/hindenburg-omen-fires-off-another-volley.html#disqus_thread)

HO signals reported for August 5th and August 6th.
Now I have to mention you in the commentary again. :D

Thanks for the heads up.

[Birchtree]

We are in the strongest bull market in 65 years - have no fear of Hindenburg. They are simply trying to scare you away from investing.

[bmneveu]

I know I'm jumping the gun here, but I can't wait.....any new HO for 8-7?

I am sitting on the fence as to whether now is a good dip buying opportunity or not. :blink:

No signal for the 7th, but there was a 3rd signal yesterday, August 8th. That 3 signals in 4 days, quite a "cluster", as these guys call it (which starts a new event, I am assuming). Some quick facts based on historical results of official signals:

73% chance there will NOT be a major stock market crash!

Decline of at least 2-5% -- 92% chance
Decline of at least 5-8% -- 77% chance
Decline of at least 8-10% -- 54% chance
Decline of at least 10-15% -- 39% chance
Decline of more than 15% -- 27% chance

[Warrenlm]

We are in the strongest bull market in 65 years - have no fear of Hindenburg. They are simply trying to scare you away from investing. This conclusion is supported by Marc Faber becoming the most strident he has ever been about an imminent crash. He's becoming ever more frustrated. :)

[PLANO]

Hasn't he been predicting a major correction about every other month since January??? I guess if you keep saying something often enough, eventually you'll be right.


This conclusion is supported by Marc Faber becoming the most strident he has ever been about an imminent crash. He's becoming ever more frustrated. :)

[k0nkuzh0n]

No signal for the 7th, but there was a 3rd signal yesterday, August 8th. That 3 signals in 4 days, quite a "cluster", as these guys call it (which starts a new event, I am assuming). Some quick facts based on historical results of official signals:

73% chance there will NOT be a major stock market crash!

Decline of at least 2-5% -- 92% chance
Decline of at least 5-8% -- 77% chance
Decline of at least 8-10% -- 54% chance
Decline of at least 10-15% -- 39% chance
Decline of more than 15% -- 27% chance

Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?

[bmneveu]

Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?

That's actually the chance of a decline after the 2nd signal. One of the requirements for an official event is 2 signals within xx days of each other (somewhere around 30 days, sorry can't remember exactly), the 2nd being a "confirming signal". So this 3rd signal doesn't change anything really, just adds to the cluster. It's just saying that market polarity (# stocks hitting all-time highs and # stocks hitting all-time lows) is growing and may result in some fear/panic selling soon.

[bmneveu]

Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?

And I don't know the answer to your second question. I wish I did. Interesting thought. I could look it up later, maybe this weekend sometime.

[k0nkuzh0n]

That's actually the chance of a decline after the 2nd signal. One of the requirements for an official event is 2 signals within xx days of each other (somewhere around 30 days, sorry can't remember exactly), the 2nd being a "confirming signal". So this 3rd signal doesn't change anything really, just adds to the cluster. It's just saying that market polarity (# stocks hitting all-time highs and # stocks hitting all-time lows) is growing and may result in some fear/panic selling soon.

Then do you know when the percent decline would be measured from? The 1st signal, 2nd signal, or last signal? I'd assume the 2nd signal if that is the official event.

[bmneveu]

Then do you know when the percent decline would be measured from? The 1st signal, 2nd signal, or last signal? I'd assume the 2nd signal if that is the official event.

Yes it should be the 2nd signal for that reason. I'll try to dig in and confirm that the statistics reflect that later as well.

[tsptalk]

Dow down 130 - Oh, the humanity! :)


(I assume it's not too soon for that joke.)

[James48843]

Here is another "doom and gloom" report that ties in:

"Dr. Doom says- crash coming."

Dr. Doom: A 1987-style crash is coming - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dr-doom-1987-style-crash-191545676.html)

[tsptalk]

I think he'll be on CNBC's Fast Money today at 5 PM ET.

[James48843]

Hindenberg Omen spotted just outside of Ardmore, Oklahoma.....


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf_VRYa3BO8

[James48843]

Nice writeup of the Hindenberg Omen over in the Christian Science Monitor-
Hindenburg Omen: Time to sell your stocks? - CSMonitor.com (http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2013/0813/Hindenburg-Omen-Time-to-sell-your-stocks)

They are saying there were five Omen signals in the last eight trading sessions.


I bailed today. I believe in that stuff.

Good luck.

[bmneveu]

Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?


A recent post over at Albertarocks' TA Discussions (http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.ca/) shows some new, compelling research regarding HO signals. To paraphrase, the probability of / severity of a decline has no correlation to how many signals per HO event, or how closely clustered they are. That pretty much hits right on that 2nd question of yours.

But, the real gem in the research is the confirmation that the pace of the rising market before a confirmed HO is a direct indicator (based on almost 30 years of data) of the severity of the upcoming decline. More or less, the faster we go up before the HO, the farther we go down after. This last ride clocks in as the fastest ever. Strap in!

[tsptalk]

Great stuff, bmneveu! Keep it coming!

[sniper]

A recent post over at Albertarocks' TA Discussions (http://albertarocks-ta-discussions.blogspot.ca/) shows some new, compelling research regarding HO signals. To paraphrase, the probability of / severity of a decline has no correlation to how many signals per HO event, or how closely clustered they are. That pretty much hits right on that 2nd question of yours.

But, the real gem in the research is the confirmation that the pace of the rising market before a confirmed HO is a direct indicator (based on almost 30 years of data) of the severity of the upcoming decline. More or less, the faster we go up before the HO, the farther we go down after. This last ride clocks in as the fastest ever. Strap in!


let it come, i'm on the sidelines in cash waiting to go all in

[bmneveu]

We've retraced about 60 points now on the S&P500 from ~1690 when the 2nd signal fired off on August 6th. That's just over 3.5%. Sure feels like more. I would already consider this another successful prediction, but I won't be surprised to see more selling pressure to come.

[James48843]

Note to all- The Hindenburg Omen reappeared on Monday this week- according to this source:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-wuhan-coronavirus-spreads-to-the-stock-market-and-triggers-the-deadly-hindenburg-omen-163418385.html

Remember we had a series of multiple Hindenburg Omens in November, and now this one this week.

Personally, I'm going to do what I think is prudent, in light of the Omen, plus the Chinese virus thing, plus everything else that is going on.

You do what you want to to- as for me- I'm out, waiting better weather.

If you are not familiar with "The Hindenburg Omen", this thread helps explain it. Go back to the early posts and read.

There is almost nothing NEW in the stock market- it's patterns that seem to repeat from time to time. Part of doing well in the market is recognizing when strange patterns appear, and what to do about them.


Have a great day!

[James48843]

There was a series of 8 Hindenburg Omens in late January/early February. It is likely now that the downtrend will continue for some time. I think tomorrow’s bounce will be a one day fluke that will be followed by lower in the six months ahead.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4323788-new-cluster-of-hindenburg-omens-betrays-bullish-case-for-stocks



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[James48843]

Blackstone IPO…a sign of a top in the Market?
Meanwhile, another action associated with a market top is the Blackstone Group's initial public offering of its stock (IPO). This is the largest public offering since 2002 (https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.yahoo.com%2Fs%2Fnm%2F2 0070621%2Fpl_nm%2Fblackstone_ipo_dc_7), bringing in $4.13 billion. Is the smart money cashing out? (https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Frds.yahoo.com%2F_ylt%3DA9j8 euzL4ntGlnUBBQPQtDMD%3B_ylu%3DX3oDMTBjb3ZrYjNkBHBv cwM0BHNlYwNzcg--%2FSIG%3D14adrcl1t%2FEXP%3D1182610507%2F%2A%2Ahttp %253a%2Fwww.nasdaq.com%2Faspxcontent%2FNewsStory.a spx%253fcpath%3D20070617%25255cACQDJON200706171945 DOWJONESDJONLINE000328.htm%2526)
A second Hindenburg sighting...and a third!
Yesterday's market gave us a second Hindenburg Omen (https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FH indenburg_Omen)sighting…and today's activity in the market may give us yet a third zeppelin sighting. This now confirms the probability of a major decline in the next 120 days. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%. (Source: Wikepedia.com)
The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. :blink::worried::eek::eek:


That was from Member "Showme" back in the summer of 2007. Shortly before a significant market downturn.

We just got another 8-alarm bell Hindenberg Omen end of January- first week of February 2020.

Just saying- watch out.

[Bullitt]

Monday was the sixth since January 31, 2020.

Not a timing mechanism because of many false positives, but you can't have a crash without one.

[James48843]

I guess everybody here ought to learn about that Hindenburg Omen.

Once again proved it’s worth- did it’s stuff- signaled loudly it was here- just before the crash.

45702



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[tsptalk]

I guess everybody here ought to learn about that Hindenburg Omen.

Once again proved it’s worth- did it’s stuff- signaled loudly it was here- just before the crash.

I was calling it the boy who cried wolf for a couple of years since we saw it so often. I think I wrote about that once or twice. Yup, the boy was right this time.

[James48843]

Whenever an Omen appears, I perk up and start running much more extensive reviews every day of what’s happening, just to watch for any unusual things that catch my eye.

In this case, back on 1-31, I saw some funny motions up and down within a range, remembered the Hindenburg Omen had signaled in November, and then did a quick google search, only to find out it had repeated a couple of days before in the last week of January with a series of Omen signals. I had not seen that anywhere else, and so I sat up In my chair, and posted the wArning in this thread on Jan 31st - and moved my own money to safety based on the double Omen of November/Jan. Thank God I did, cause it, plus the signal from TSP Plus system, convinced me something wasn’t right- and that move saved me from a $ 70,000 loss.

So - an Omen, combined with a TSPPlus sell signal, is now, to me, worth its weight in gold.

The problem now is going to be figuring out when a good time to buy back in will be. I’m thinking now it may not be until July or August at the earliest, and could be much, much more severe. The pandemic is the wildcard. Could be a few months, or this could created a HUGE shift in economic activity that hurts for years.


We’ll see. I think Covid-19 is now going to dominate the recession about to hit. It’s going to be a bad one.




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[James48843]

Again, from my 2-25-20 posting-


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4323788-new-cluster-of-hindenburg-omens-betrays-bullish-case-for-stocks


A New Cluster Of Hindenburg Omens Betrays The Bullish Case For Stocks
Feb. 13, 2020 7:16

Summary

While an individual signal has very little value in forecasting a stock market crash, a cluster of signals can be valuable in that it signals a pattern of dispersion that is not compatible with a healthy uptrend.

In the past, these clusters have marked important intermediate and long-term reversals.

Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen another cluster of 8 individual signals between the NYSE and Nasdaq.

(Link above for complete article)


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[Bullitt]

No Hindenburg warnings out there right now. Just a lot of pre-election uncertainty going on the past two weeks.

[bmneveu]

No Hindenburg warnings out there right now. Just a lot of pre-election uncertainty going on the past two weeks.

You fooled me with the thread bump. I saw it and thought, oh man here we go!

[Bullitt]

Looking for confirmation from the NYSE.


Using Refinitiv data, a more stringent construction of the indicator shows a signal popped up Tuesday on the Nasdaq. The last signal developed 12 trading days ahead of the Nasdaq's Feb. 19, 2020 top and what would then prove to be a 33% swoon in the tech-laden index into its March trough. No signal occurred on the NYSE on Tuesday. Its last occurrence was the Feb. 3, 2020 date.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/live-markets-hindenburg-omen-buzzing-the-tower-xcdw6ay835bkseu.html

[James48843]

Oh great. A Hindenburg Omen- Just when I had dived in.

Well, thank you Bullitt for posting that. Definitely has me on my toes. Here is the NASDAQ chart which also is scary to me today:

48569


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[tsptalk]

Recent Hindenburg Omen signals have produced little downside. But if they start to get ignored, that's when they'll likely be effective again.

[Bullitt]

Agree, there have been so many false alarms with this thing over the years. It's seems to be complicated indicator, but most importantly it follows the new highs and lows coupled with McClellan Oscillator.

Today the lows on the NYSE ended at 154, the highest since March 30 when it was 180. McClellan is also in negative territory currently.

[Bullitt]

Some good points since we're probably going to be starting Operation Twist II soon.


Finally got a Hindenburg Omen on March 4. One. They tend to matter more when they gang up together. Not a guarantee of anything, but a warning. Noteworthy is that none of the HOs in 2013 mattered, under QE3. Also noteworthy: QE4 is still running 2x anything seen in QE3.

https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1367645222813900804

[Bullitt]

New NYSE HO on the 16th.

[Bullitt]

Second NYSE HO on 17th.

[Bullitt]

Third HO this week on the 20th. This signal precedes all crashes, but doesn't mean a crash will happen. Good chart below showing how often it triggers.

https://confoundedinterest.net/2021/08/20/alarm-hindenburg-omen-flashes-warning-again-as-is-the-buffet-indicator-and-shillers-cape-ratio/

[James48843]

That's it.

Third Hindenberg Omen and I'm out. See you in a couple of months- I'm expecting a good retrenchment within 30 days.

[James48843]

Somebody just asked me what the Hindenberg Omen means. Here is the thread - it's not ALWAYS a signal of a decline, but it DOES have a history ot significant falls afterwards. I've seen it work several times , so I am moving to safety.

[tsptalk]

More often then not, HO warnings are false alarms, but as bullitt said, basically all crashes are preceded by one or more signals. Generally, the more signals in a short period, the more vulnerable the market becomes. Watch the new highs / new lows lists each day. High numbers of both trigger this warning.

[tom4jean]

Somebody just asked me what the Hindenberg Omen means. Here is the thread - it's not ALWAYS a signal of a decline, but it DOES have a history ot significant falls afterwards. I've seen it work several times , so I am moving to safety.Link? Thanks!

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[James48843]

Link? Thanks!

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Go back to the very first post in this thread- and that explains what it is. Thanks. Good luck.

We just had a second and third. Historically, this is from back in June 2007, leading up to the crash in 2008.


“A second and a third!

Yesterday's market gave us a second Hindenburg Omen sighting…and today's activity in the market may give us yet a third zeppelin sighting. This now confirms the probability of a major decline in the next 120 days. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%. (Source: Wikepedia.com)
The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. “

(From earlier in this thread).



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[James48843]

Remember the discussion about the Hindenburg Omen?

Well,here we are.


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[tsptalk]

Yup, and month of negative diverging indicators. But like a broken clock is right twice a day, the bears eventually get to say, I told you. But first they are wrong for a looonng time.

Jim Chanos was on CNBC today and they were talking about Evergrande and the Chinese real estate development market. They brought him on because he was bearish on Chinese real estate since 2009!! I mean, seriously. Is he claiming victory because of today's selling? :laugh:

Probably more to it than that, but it's funny how CNBC brings out all the bears on a day like today, when every other day up until today it was 90% bulls.

[eastj]

I read about this too and had a chuckle. :laugh: Not to disparage the bears, but I love how people I haven't heard from for weeks are now coming out to brag "I told you so." But it's ok...everyone deserves to have their day in the sun. :smile:


Yup, and month of negative diverging indicators. But like a broken clock is right twice a day, the bears eventually get to say, I told you. But first they are wrong for a looonng time.

Jim Chanos was on CNBC today and they were talking about Evergrande and the Chinese real estate development market. They brought him on because he was bearish on Chinese real estate since 2009!! I mean, seriously. Is he claiming victory because of today's selling? :laugh:

Probably more to it than that, but it's funny how CNBC brings out all the bears on a day like today, when every other day up until today it was 90% bulls.

[Bullitt]

The Hindenburg Omen is on the clock until December 17, but if bears want to strike, late September to October is a better time seasonality wise.

Timing for Chanos was wrong by more than a decade, so that doesn't mean he was right.

[Bullitt]

Nasdaq has even more HO warnings than NYSE. They're starting to rack up just like crypto and EV mania.


This week saw the Nasdaq trigger its 13th and 14th Hindenburg Omens of the year. In the past, this degree of persistent dispersion has been a consistent precursor to corrections or bear markets in the index.

https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/17/the-fasten-seat-belt-sign-just-lit-up/

[tsptalk]

Yes, 200+ new lows on the Nasdaq yesterday despite the big rally in the Nasdaq.

[tsptalk]

More signals?

166 new 52-week highs today on the Nasdaq, 249 new lows. And that was with the Nasdaq 100 closing flat.

[Bullitt]

Yes, and NYSE produced another one yesterday. Now waiting for a second confirmation within 30 days to make it a true "Hindenburg Omen". We're still on the watch from the previous one though so this will just extend the due date.

[retread]

Yes, and NYSE produced another one yesterday. Now waiting for a second confirmation within 30 days to make it a true "Hindenburg Omen". We're still on the watch from the previous one though so this will just extend the due date.

I seem to recall we had a bunch of HO's back in late summer/August timeframe. Do the latest HO's "add" weight to what happened then or can they be thought of as separate entities? Does anyone have a history of these things and can do a frequency count to see how number of HO's during a timeframe correlate with price action?

[Bullitt]

Retread,

There is much out there in the Googlesphere regarding this phenomena. I've read that no crash has ever occurred without one and that it doesn't matter how many you get in one period of time, but five or more increases the probability for a crash. There have been many false warnings, most recently in March 2021.

Nasdaq seems to throw off more than NYSE, probably because the index is often levitated by either GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, APPL on any given day. I only follow the NYSE.

Essentially it's all about watching for deteriorating internals. For example, today the SP500 and Nasdaq are up, but NYSE has .4 advancers for every 1 decline and Nasdaq has .3 advancers for every 1 decline.

https://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/Hindenburg.pdf

It really didn't work too well during the 1990's bubble period.

https://sentimentrader.com/blog/ultimate-guide-to-the-hindenburg-omen/

See the chart in the link below for Nasdaq perspective if you have not already.

https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/17/the-fasten-seat-belt-sign-just-lit-up/



(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen)

[Bullitt]

Another one for the NYSE confirmed yesterday. That makes three since September.

There were three from October 2019 to January 2020 before the COVID crash (or oil crash which also contributed).

Markets are always uncertain, but the good news always comes out at the top. Anything EV going up, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT lifting all market indicies, crypto going mainstream are some examples.

[bleeck]

Only a few stock being pumped up via short term option playing daily( big boys). That is causing the DOW, NASDAQ and SPY to end green for the day when the Advance- Decline is way in favor of the Decliners. Someone is pumping these up and it is not retail traders! Amazon up yesterday (4%) and the news was about the deal with 1 Starbuck store in NYC, Starbucks down? A lot of action in the 3700 calls, which close out mostly each day, which pushes stock higher without having to buy the stock. Looks like they are at it again today. The game!

[tsptalk]

Current new highs / lows as of 11:22 AM EST

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/111921c.gif

[James48843]

I’m very, very concerned again with the rapid reappearance of the Hindenburg omen. I’m seriously considering bailing out in the next few days.


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[tsptalk]

This is Monday's new highs / new lows. The Nasdaq made a new all time this morning, and had 554 new 52-week lows on the same day.
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/112221i.gif

[Bullitt]

Yep, yesterday was a fourth Hindenburg Omen.

[nasa1974]

Yep the "S" fund is kicking my ass. ;damnit

[James48843]

Hindenburg Omen is blowing up the market today. I’m out. Good luck!


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[Bullitt]

The only thing preventing a full blown crash is TSLA, MSFT (both heavy insider selling), AAPL, NVDA. The beauty of market cap weighted indexes is one or two stocks can move an entire index regardless of what everything else does.

So many stocks are down 50-75% from their highs. Stocks that were supposed to be the new era, PTON, ZM, ZG, TDOC, BYND, ROKU, PLTR, SQ, SPOT..... The darlings that rocketed high have only managed to fall even faster out of flavor.

Tax loss selling has been a major drag on markets and seems to be accelerating.

[DreamboatAnnie]

Interesting comment on tax loss selling. Hummm... I thought that would happen more towards end of December. Thanks for your insight Bullitt!

[bmneveu]

The only thing preventing a full blown crash is TSLA, MSFT (both heavy insider selling), AAPL, NVDA. The beauty of market cap weighted indexes is one or two stocks can move an entire index regardless of what everything else does.

So many stocks are down 50-75% from their highs. Stocks that were supposed to be the new era, PTON, ZM, ZG, TDOC, BYND, ROKU, PLTR, SQ, SPOT..... The darlings that rocketed high have only managed to fall even faster out of flavor.

Tax loss selling has been a major drag on markets and seems to be accelerating.

I wonder if it has to do with profitability. So many of those are not profitable yet. Everyone piles in early expecting explosive revenue growth with hopes for profits later. When the profits don't come, or turmoil hits, investors move to profitable companies, aka those megacaps you mentioned. Just a thought/theory.

[retread]

Hindenburg Omen is blowing up the market today. I’m out. Good luck!


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So does this recent pull back negate all the HO's we've been seeing since the summer? When do HO's get "reset" for the next surge? When is it ok to stop worrying about the large number of HO's recently? Thanks.

[Bullitt]

They have a set date. I think this one is on until mid-February 2022.

[Tsunami]

https://sentimentrader.com/blog/ultimate-guide-to-the-hindenburg-omen/

[Bullitt]

On the NYSE, there was one on Monday and one yesterday.

[James48843]

Uh-oh.

Dow futures are down over 2% already tonight.

52371


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[tsptalk]

-700 doesn't sound right with the S&P futures down < 1%.

"They" want mom and pop panic selling in the morning so they can buy on Tuesday. ;)

... I don't know. :)

[DreamboatAnnie]

Agree. The -700 doesn't seem correct. CNBC has Dow mini down -273 right now. I've been watching this evening and earlier it was down around -240. Russell mini down 41, with implied open of 2128... which is not good. I guess around -1%. Santa may not come until after Christmas... Jobs, confidence and more inflation info comes out later this week.

https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

[James48843]

DOW FUTURES SHOWING DOWN MORE THAN 900 NOW. -2.69%.


DOW FUTURES



-961.00-2.69%



Level 34,830.00
Fair Value 35,247.25
Implied Open-417.25


S&P 500 FUTURES



-60.00-1.30%



Level4,550.00
Fair Value4,610.82
Implied Open-60.82


NASDAQ FUTURES



-310.75-1.96%



Level15,556.00
Fair Value15,793.92
Implied Open-237.92








Data as of December 20, 8:46 AM EST. Based on March 2022 contract. Fair value provided by IndexArb.com.

[joblin20]

Things are getting ugly.

[nasa1974]

Things are getting ugly.

It's been ugly the whole month. I like roller coaster rides, but this month is making me seasick. :sick:

[BigTex]

It's been ugly the whole month. I like roller coaster rides, but this month is making me seasick. :sick:

I hope I'm wrong, but the so-called "Santa bump" may very well be a lump of coal for investors!

[Bullitt]

Hindenburg Omen on NYSE yesterday. That makes seven.

[Bullitt]

March 8th was the 8th HO on NYSE.

[Bullitt]

Another HO on the NYSE April 8. There were 3 near misses during the week.

The issue is that the "rally" has been narrow with contributions coming mainly from large caps. Small and mid caps are not adding any upside. The large companies will do okay since they actually make money, but many small cap stocks have yet to even turn a profit and have only moved higher on hope via PE expansion. With historically low lending rates being over with (until the fed has to cut again), profits will be ever more elusive for those small cap companies.

From a recent Lowry's note:
Both the S&P 400 and S&P 600 Indexes have been in decline relative to the S&P 500 for well over a year. After two months of improving relative strength following the S&P 500’s January all-time high, both smaller-cap indexes lagged during the rebound rally. The relative declines since the March low serve as more evidence of a narrow rally that lacks staying power.

[Bullitt]

Another NYSE Hindenburg on April 12 for those still keeping score.

[James48843]

I'm KEEPING MYSELF FAR AWAY from stocks these days.

That Hindenberg seems to be accurate this time. We need a while to stop the bleeding, and I don't know if we are anywhere near that. I'm thinking another couple of months before we hit bottom.

[retread]

Another NYSE Hindenburg on April 12 for those still keeping score.

When was the last the last "reset" (when it went to 0)? Is the time span between new HO's getting shorter (are we getting them more rapidly)? Interested in change over time. Increasing, decreasing? Do you have anything like "here are the number of days between peak HO and crash"? I realize this type of data is esoteric and probably doesn't support hard facts like I am hoping for. Whatever clarity you can provide is appreciated. Thanks.

[retread]

When was the last the last "reset" (when it went to 0)? Is the time span between new HO's getting shorter (are we getting them more rapidly)? Interested in change over time. Increasing, decreasing? Do you have anything like "here are the number of days between peak HO and crash"? I realize this type of data is esoteric and probably doesn't support hard facts like I am hoping for. Whatever clarity you can provide is appreciated. Thanks.

Went back on this thread and found this link which suggests numbers around 13 are concerning.

https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/17/the-fasten-seat-belt-sign-just-lit-up/

[Bullitt]

It's like everything else. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Allegedly every crash has been preceded by a HO warning.

Basically, it's looking for deterioration of market breadth. One problem in the past 10 years or so is that the whole entire market has been lifted by FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA. It only takes a few of those stocks to be up during the day to create a positive market leading to more HO signs than in years past.

See the historical chart here https://sentimentrader.com/blog/ultimate-guide-to-the-hindenburg-omen

Some have their own "enhanced" way of computing the number. Here is the original.


Here is the formula for triggering a Hindenburg Omen, as written by Jim Miekka himself:

- First, the number of issues in a specific exchange hitting 52-week highs (left lane of traffic) and lows (right lane of traffic) must both exceed 2.8 percent of the number of issues in said exchange. (Many articles report a requirement of 2.2 percent, which is incorrect.)

- Second, the benchmark index for the exchange must be above the value it had 50 trading days, or 10 weeks, ago. (Again, many sources get this incorrect, referencing an exchange must be above its 50-day moving average. This is not accurate.)

- Once the two aforementioned events have occurred, the signal is valid for 30 trading days. During the 30 days, the signal is activated whenever the McClellan Oscillator (MCO) is negative, but deactivated whenever the MCO is positive. (This is an extremely important distinction that many publications inexplicably omit.)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4070634-why-hindenburg-omen-is-just-scary-name

[Bullitt]

Word is there was a Hindenburg Omen on Monday.