Interfund Transfer 6/22 for 6/25/07

[tsptalk]

We are seeing another dip this morning but support has held so far. The sentiment survey says 100% S fund next week, and the Ebbchart goes back into the I fund for Monday. I'll join in and make an Interfund Transfer to 100% S fund this morning. Maybe Trader Fred will join in COB.

[tsptalk]

In todays' commentary (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_6_22_07.html)I mentioned that yesterday's drop didn't look like a panic sell-off as support held very neatly. This morning however, saw a break of the prior day's low and then another quick half percent dive which seemed to take out the stop losses. That was followed by a bounce, a test, and another bounce.
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/temp1.gif


So far so good, but Friday sell-offs can be dangerous to Monday mornings as the herd tends to get wind of the weakness and sells the open. That's when panic can really set in but it can also set up a capitulation bottom.

I hate to talk about capitulations during a market that is barely off all time highs, but you know what I mean. This is a strong bull market that has rewarded those brave enough to buy modest weakness.

If the recent Friday buyers decide it won't work this week, we could get a late sell-off as well. We'll see.

[tsptalk]

Closed at the day's low. Not always a good sign for early Monday trading...

Index Value:13,360.26
Trade Time:4:08PM ET
Change:http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 185.58 (1.37%)
Prev Close:13,545.84
Open:13,545.03
Day's Range:13,359.69 - 13,545.11
52wk Range:10,658.30 - 13,756.70

I'm a bit worried about China again as it failed to make a new high after getting back all of last month's losses. It fell hard last night, and now faces a possible tightening of rates this weekend.

If China sells off again on Sunday night (our time) based on a rate hike, that could make for a nervous Monday morning for U.S. stocks. But of course, when you try to buy low, you are buying the fear - which usually turns out good.

[easyrydr]

Boy did I go wrong on the market today. Just after I put 90% in I fund. That hurt!!!!!

[tsptalk]

The positive holiday bias is a little stronger leading up to the 4th than afterward. With he sentiment survey giving us a sell for next week, I'm thinking of possibly lightening up again Tuesday morning for Thursday. I hope the EbbChart and/or Trader Fred will concur. I'll feel better about exiting.