Market Talk

[Spaf]

A review of recent market trends.

From the low of August 12th to the closing of September 10th.

Funds: G= .04 F = .18 C= .66 S= .97 andI =.58

Investing proportionally:

G = 20% F = 80 % Bearish (100%) Caution: interest rates are rising!

Bullish (100%) C = 30% S = 45% and I = 25%

Days up: 16, days down: 5

Moving averages (short term) = Bullish for August/Sept. Moving averages (long term) = Bearish for March/ Sept. Current cycles (peak to peak) averaged about 33 days from April/June.

Other factors:

Last week.
Advancers led decliners, with some companies reporting cost cutting.
Oil was lower below $43, as hurricane threat eased (but a war/supply factor exists).
DOW had the lowest Increase up 0.2%, NASD 1.3%, and S&P 0.5%.

Market comments (by others):

Could be upper end, or breakout.

My comments:

Short term: Current allocation Bullish 0-0-35-45-20, with feelings that C-S-I funds seem to be dry due to short termup trends, but since this (also) appears to be a monsoon season (cycles), always bring rain gear (G-fund) along. Long term: Bearish, too many current problems, with cylic moving averages, and overall trend since March has beenaveraging (on a slow slope) downward.

Got to go back and review [tsptalks] chart on upswings during presidential election years. I'm an optimist, needing my shot of good news!

Have a good week! :) But, please be careful out there.

If we can get by Tuesday/Wednesday next week (Retail Sales/Business Inventories) we could have a great week. Triple Witching Friday is also a wild card. Volumes are still Augustish (vacation period for laree traders). My plan is to sell into the 21st Fed Hike and buy again if we get a end of month sell off - that is my thesis and I am sticking to it.

In my opinion the S Fund is topping out and will need to retreat to build a base.

MT

[Spaf]

MT

On June 1st the S fund was at 12.92, as of Sept 10th it was at 12.84

I know that you have indicators based on the SOXX Index (semiconductors) listed at yahoo finance under ^SOXX. Tom (tsptalk) has indicators listed at yahoo finance under the Dow Jones Transportation Avg, ^DTX.

Please see the moving averages i.e., that you can plot using yahoo for i.e., 20 days for ^DTX.

We (I) have no crystal ball. But the economy for the short term looks good. The future is not ours to tell. We need to break out of this years bearish market to help our TSP accounts, do we have a break out? You say Yes. I'll wait to see if S&P crosses through the 1140 level, then I'll say yes.

For now, I am bullish, in the stockat TSP: 0-0-30-45-25.

Have a good week :)

[Mike]

This year is not a bearish market. Sideways, yes. Bearish? no.

[tsptalk]

Mike wrote:
This year is not a bearish market. Sideways, yes. Bearish? no.

I agree. I've called it a consolidation. After the last six months of this consolidation, The S&P 500 isabout 3% from a new multi-year high.

[Spaf]

Mike/ Tom

Sorry, I don't figure sideways.

The stock market went up last year and into a portion of this year. However, after Feburary it started going through down and up cycles with a S&P high of about 1163 in March, to 1125 where it was last friday. Bearish seemed like word that wouldn't offend anyone, but would reflect the overall trend of downsloping through the cycles.Be it correction, consolidation, constipation, whatever.

[Spaf]

Monday, September 13th

The markets were doing real good this morning. :)About 1 PM I left for a visit to my dentist. When I got home about 4 PM, I looked at the markets again. Wow, what a stall! The NASD seemed to fare ok, but the other ones really fizzled out. :(

The DJTA looked like it fell off a cliff!

What happened out there ? ?

[tsptalk]

Spaf wrote:
Monday, September 13th

The markets were doing real good this morning. :)About 1 PM I left for a visit to my dentist. When I got home about 4 PM, I looked at the markets again. Wow, what a stall! The NASD seemed to fare ok, but the other ones really fizzled out. :(

The DJTA looked like it fell off a cliff!

What happened out there ? ?

You are getting a bit carried away. The DJTA dropped $1 or .04%. Another higher high and higher low on the S&P 500. I am concerned that the fall off started after the S&P 500 reached up to 1130. Right about where we will see a pullback if we get one (as I mentioned on 8/20 (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_8_20_04.html)). We could see some selling here but how the market reacts will be the key.

[Spaf]

Got 3 more dental appointments, don't know if I can take it!!

[tsptalk]

:l

[Mike]

Has Ivan been priced into the oil market already? It has already led to a number of shutdowns by oil companies in the Gulf.

[Spaf]

Mike

Ivan is not a good thing. Winds 155mph and waves 15-20 feet. News today reported Oil prices shot up nearly $1.50 a barrel Monday as oil and natural gas producers evacuated rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Shell Oil said it was evacuating 750 workers from the gulf.

Ouch! I wish Ivan had gone the other way, so do a lot of folks in the gulf! The price of cuban cigars will probably be puffed up. in the short term.

Love this planet ( it's the only one we have)! Hey, have a good day!

[Cinderella]

Spaf wrote:

Mike

Ivan is not a good thing. Winds 155mph and waves 15-20 feet. News today reported Oil prices shot up nearly $1.50 a barrel Monday as oil and natural gas producers evacuated rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Shell Oil said it was evacuating 750 workers from the gulf.

Ouch! I wish Ivan had gone the other way, so do a lot of folks in the gulf! The price of cuban cigars will probably go up. in the short time, but at least they can still make them. Love this planet ( it's the only one we have)! Hey, have a good day!



Special Notice for Sept 14, 2004: Because of Hurricane Ivan, the New Orleans data center is closed. Therefore, the Account Access of the TSP web site is currently unavailable.

They anticipate service will be restored no later than Monday, Sept 20, 2004.

Cinderella wrote:


Special Notice for Sept 14, 2004: Because of Hurricane Ivan, the New Orleans data center is closed. Therefore, the Account Access of the TSP web site is currently unavailable.

They anticipate service will be restored no later than Monday, Sept 20, 2004.Wow, kind of glad I'm in G fund then. Thanks for the info.....

[azanon]

I can see it now: Ivan speeds back up to a cat 5 and gives New Orleans a direct hit causing them to go down another full week over anticipated. At the same time S&P500 peaks cause its at the top of the price channel and then bears hard all next week.

[neirbod]

Hi,

I've been lurking here several weeks, but haven't posted anything until now. Just wanted to pass on that I called the TSP center to ask what happened to any changes made earlier today. The person didn't know. She said they have only the same message we have on the TSP web page. So, no way to know if that interfund transfer I made this morning will take place tomorrow or Monday.

While I'm here, thanks all for the very interesting dialogue and valuable information. Thanks especially to guys like Tom and Mlk_man for being so generous with their systems and rationale for trades. This site is atremendous asset. Thanks Tom!

Dave

neirbod wrote:
Hi,

I've been lurking here several weeks, but haven't posted anything until now. Just wanted to pass on that I called the TSP center to ask what happened to any changes made earlier today. The person didn't know. She said they have only the same message we have on the TSP web page. So, no way to know if that interfund transfer I made this morning will take place tomorrow or Monday.

While I'm here, thanks all for the very interesting dialogue and valuable information. Thanks especially to guys like Tom and Mlk_man for being so generous with their systems and rationale for trades. This site is atremendous asset. Thanks Tom!

Dave

Welcome neirbod, I hope our comments have been helpful. Good luck to ya! :^

M_M

[Spaf]

Ivan :@

[tsptalk]

neirbod wrote:
While I'm here, thanks all for the very interesting dialogue and valuable information.
Thanks neirbod, and welcome! We hope to hear more from you in the future.

[neirbod]

Everyone's comments are very helpful. Mlk_man, your system seems be right on for the current market. I am watching your allocations closely (as well as others). I appreciate the updates, and hope you keep them coming.

Dave

[Mike]

Az, that was NOT funny man!

I guess for the next week, we're all buy and holders. :P

[Spaf]

Mike

Just holders!!!

Wednesday: Coca Cola Fizzled!

Since The start of this month (September) the market has posted 7 days up and 3 days down. Moving averages for 20 days are still ok! The temporary closing of TSP leaves us at the mercy of the market, but it was trending up.

Cinderella wrote:" in my opinion it is not sound long-term investing to use your IRA as if it were an ATM". I have recorded your comment as a classic, damn near fell out of the chair laughing! Please give a warning so that I can put a pillow behind my chair!

Ivan as Martha would say is not a good thing. Will see what Tom and member comments are, but as you imply, for now, good, bad or whatever, we are stuck!

[Cinderella]

Spaf wrote:



Cinderella wrote: " in my opinion it is not sound long-term investing to use your IRA as if it were an ATM". I have recorded your comment as a classic, damn near fell out of the chair laughing! Please give a warning so that I can put a pillow behind my chair!





Feel free to remember the quote and use it.... lol

I was just trying to make my point that a person needs to have some cash on hand. Sometimes, a difference of opinion is met with a great deal of resistance on this board.

I am glad that a few people appreciate my "light-hearted spin" on these serious topics.

[Spaf]

The TSP has neen non operational since September 14, and they expect restoration no later than Monday Sept 20th. I and others did not realize that the system would shut down. One member indicated knowingof this possibility, transfered to the G fund, but didn't tell others, till after the fact of the TSP close down.

The web site for TSPMoney.com has likewise been non operational since about September 13th.

The world is full of good and bad folks, some are financial advisors and some just want to be. Be careful, check, and evaluate what you hear. Be Informed!

If you hear something you don't understand, find out about it! If someone discusses moving averages, then find out about it! ie, see: http://www.incrediblecharts.com, Or see: http://www.investopedia.com

There are serious things to consider: What is the volatility of the TSP securities fund, the bond fund and the 3 stock funds. Buy and hold investing refers to long term investing (10 or more years). Contributions to your TSP account are basically dollar cost averaging. Are you aware of how compounding affects your investments? Do you know what are the expense ratios for the TSP funds, and how they compare to other funds? The historical returns for stocks is 11%, bonds 5.2%. Historical inflation was 4%, average inflation was 3.1%. To manage your retirement portfolio was 1.2%. And the real consideration is that a withdrawal rate of over 4% is generally to high for a retirement portfolio.

Thus if I wanted TSP transfered to XYZ retirement account, and I wanted $1,000 a month and I could take out 4% per year, I would need $300,000 in the account. For today. Remember 11% is the average, minus 4% inflation leaves 8%. You have to factor in a cost of living allowance (4%) and the result seems to be 4% is about all you can withdraw. A retirement account should consider expense ratios of the funds. The lower the better!

For buy and hold, this site has some good recommendations in long term investing. For those of us that chose to time the market, there are some good recommendations (and some not so good). I will say that the 20 day moving average, 1/2 of the 30-40 day cycles gives a fairly good picture of possible entry and exit actions. The 2003 bullish market was fairly stable for a buy and hold option, however since from about Feburary 2004 the market has been cyclic (and somewhat bearish) indicating that market timing could produce some gains, if you kept up with the cycles's and acted accordingly. RE: attached chart (yellow/orange=cycles, Green=bull, red=20dayMA, and blue=S&P500):

[Cinderella]

Spaf wrote:



The world is full of good and bad folks, some are financial advisors and some just want to be. Be careful, check, and evaluate what you hear. Be Informed!

If you hear something you don't understand, find out about it! If someone discusses moving averages, then find out about it! ie, see: http://www.incrediblecharts.com, Or see: http://www.investopedia.com

There are serious things to consider: What is the volatility of the TSP securities fund, the bond fund and the 3 stock funds. Buy and hold investing refers to long term investing (10 or more years). Contributions to your TSP account are basically dollar cost averaging. Are you aware of how compounding affects your investments?






Excellent points to consider and websites to help find the answers to questions.

Spaf, do you receive the weekly review of the Dow, S&P500, Gold, and major indices offered at www.incrediblecharts.com ?

I would like to read some posts on how compounding affects our TSP.

[Spaf]

Sorry no subscription. There are a lot of good free sites.

See: stockchart.com Go to Free Chart. Go to Gallery View. Type in $SPX, and hit go.

Compounding makes money grow, it gets greeener (works great on mutual funds). Just the opposite of using IRA as a ATM! :)See: investopedia.com, type in what U want and it will give a definition.

[Mike]

Yay for up days. We just erased most of Thursday's pullback (at least on the S&P). :P

[Spaf]

Thanks neirbob, tsptalk, M_M, azanon, MT. Cinderella, be careful with them charts, they will dazzle ya, look at the big picture! PS: It didn't hurt to hard when I fell out of my chair! Mike we can close with your noted remarks "Yay for up days"! Hope you all have plenty of up days!

[tsptalk]

Cinderella wrote:
I would like to read some posts on how compounding affects our TSP.

Albert Einstein said "compound interest"was the human race's greatest invention.