Bear Market?

Lower highs and lower lows. Tom your chart outlines my concern since I have join this board:

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/9804a.gif

[tsptalk]

I called it a consolidation, after a 40% rally (closer to 25% on the S&P 500), rather a bear market.

Tom,

This year looks a lot like 2000. Notice inSeptember we test the highs set in July? Then after September we fall off the table on lower highs and higher lows:



http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/_/_gspc.gif

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/6m/_/_gspc.gif

This chart helps prove my point about buying opportunities even in bear markets. If you look at 2004 you'll see 3 little dips that I turned into gains. If you look at each preceding year, you'll see at least 3 dips, or profit opportunities as I like to call them.

In 2003 you only see one major dip, but since the market was bullish all year, you'd want to just stay in and ride anyway. :^

Come joing me for the adventure of a lifetime!!!! May take awhile, but you'll be happy you did..............;)

FYI, if you are in FERS and make $60000 a year and contribute 10% to your TSP, you'll have $2,342,661 in 20 years at an annual return of 20% (my goal). Not too shabby!!

[Cinderella]

M_M, TSP goal of 2,342,661 is not too shabby..... I guess that is why they call us the "Millionaire's Club".

Just curious if your strategy of the 30-day moving averages indicated all of the three dips or "profit opportunities"?

Cinderella wrote:
M_M, TSP goal of 2,342,661 is not too shabby..... I guess that is why they call us the "Millionaire's Club".

Just curious if your strategy of the 30-day moving averages indicated all of the three dips or "profit opportunities"?
I just started using 30-day moving averages but my 63-day moving averages did. I actually think the 30-day will work even better and afford me the opportunity to a)buy into even smaller dips, or b) stay out longer when the market is sliding.

I'm keeping track of both so we'll.

Have a good weekend.........

M_M

[Spaf]

The use of moving averages (MA) has a good show for the current market. The MA I like is 1/2 of the difference between market cycles (peak to peak) which I approximate as 30 to 40 days, resulting in a MA of 15-20 days. Yahoo finance has a good chart with a lot of variables you can play with.

:)

[Cinderella]

Spaf, Thank-you for the advice on MA's. I have worked with M_M's strategy of the 30 day and 63 day MA and I can see that the MA's do fit the current market. I will try to make some time this weekend to work with the chart on Yahoo Finance.

So is my strategy hurting or helping? Feedback is always appreciated. Sometimes I feel so un-loved!!!!!!!!!!! :oo

[Spaf]

M_M

Your strategy is a confirmation that using moving averages (MA) is appropriate for trending the current market which has been cycling up and down.

We are in the Forum for long term outlook, with short term topics :? must be all them cycles we ate!

mlk_man wrote:
So is my strategy hurting or helping? Feedback is always appreciated. Sometimes I feel so un-loved!!!!!!!!!!! :oo
Milk,

Your strategy is great. I do the opposite of what you are doing it has worked out great so far. Keep me posted on your future changes :^.

MT

MarketTimer wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
So is my strategy hurting or helping? Feedback is always appreciated. Sometimes I feel so un-loved!!!!!!!!!!! :oo
Milk,

Your strategy is great. I do the opposite of what you are doing it has worked out great so far. Keep me posted on your future changes :^.

MT
Hey MT, your getting old very quickly. If you don't like what I do, don't watch. Of course we all know you can't resist a chance to mouth off though. Always adjusting the facts to fit your needs. Are you a politician?

[Cinderella]

mlk_man wrote:

So is my strategy hurting or helping? Feedback is always appreciated. Sometimes I feel so un-loved!!!!!!!!!!! :oo

Thank you for sharing your investment strategy and account moves with this board. You are very brave to expose yourself to such scrutiny.

I had been investing with a mixed bag of emotions and variables such as Greenspan talking, price of oil, unemployment figures, market sentiment, & surrounding circumstances. Now, I am tracking and maintaining the MA's. I haven't made any bold investment moves by using this system yet, but I am testing it on paper and it appears to fit the current market.

Presently, I am in the process of completing some major projects and I don't have a lot of spare time, but I am planning to purchase some books on investing. I have a list of books mentioned on this forum and I believe Tom suggested "Trading for a Living" by Alexander Elder.

mlk_man wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
So is my strategy hurting or helping? Feedback is always appreciated. Sometimes I feel so un-loved!!!!!!!!!!! :oo
Milk,

Your strategy is great. I do the opposite of what you are doing it has worked out great so far. Keep me posted on your future changes :^.

MT
Hey MT, your getting old very quickly. If you don't like what I do, don't watch. Of course we all know you can't resist a chance to mouth off though. Always adjusting the facts to fit your needs. Are you a politician?
Stingng because you were out of the market during one of the best weeks of the year? Call 1-800-WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

Facts: Who called the down Friday? Who said there would be a RNC rally last week?Those who followed me made money, those who followed you didn't. :^

MT

MarketTimer wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
So is my strategy hurting or helping? Feedback is always appreciated. Sometimes I feel so un-loved!!!!!!!!!!! :oo
Milk,

Your strategy is great. I do the opposite of what you are doing it has worked out great so far. Keep me posted on your future changes :^.

MT
Hey MT, your getting old very quickly. If you don't like what I do, don't watch. Of course we all know you can't resist a chance to mouth off though. Always adjusting the facts to fit your needs. Are you a politician?
Stingng because you were out of the market during one of the best weeks of the year? Call 1-800-WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

Facts: Who called the down Friday? Who said there would be a RNC rally last week?Those who followed me made money, those who followed you didn't. :^

MT

Oh yeah,

Who said that the Monday of Triple Witching Week would be a up day? You talked Joel into getting out10 Sep.

That means he missed out on .02 C, .07 S and .05 I per share!!!

"Okay, where do I start? First I'll start with Joel. Thank you for the kind words. Nice to be appreciated! At least someone "gets" what I'm trying to do. My goal is and always has been to make 20% a year with the "least" amount of effort and risk. I'm right on track for this year."

Is that to gain 20% per year or leave 20% on the table per year???

"What happened MT, crystal ball fog up?"

Hmm I said 3 Sep would be a down day, we would get a RNC bounce and that 13 Sep would be a up date (Monday prior to triple witching). That could of made you $2625, like I did :^in my TSP.

MT

MarketTimer wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
So is my strategy hurting or helping? Feedback is always appreciated. Sometimes I feel so un-loved!!!!!!!!!!! :oo
Milk,

Your strategy is great. I do the opposite of what you are doing it has worked out great so far. Keep me posted on your future changes :^.

MT
Hey MT, your getting old very quickly. If you don't like what I do, don't watch. Of course we all know you can't resist a chance to mouth off though. Always adjusting the facts to fit your needs. Are you a politician?
Stingng because you were out of the market during one of the best weeks of the year? Call 1-800-WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

Facts: Who called the down Friday? Who said there would be a RNC rally last week?Those who followed me made money, those who followed you didn't. :^

MT

Oh yeah,

Who said that the Monday of Triple Witching Week would be a up day? You talked Joel into getting out10 Sep.

That means he missed out on .02 C, .07 S and .05 I per share!!!

"Okay, where do I start? First I'll start with Joel. Thank you for the kind words. Nice to be appreciated! At least someone "gets" what I'm trying to do. My goal is and always has been to make 20% a year with the "least" amount of effort and risk. I'm right on track for this year."

Is that to gain 20% per year or leave 20% on the table per year???

"What happened MT, crystal ball fog up?"

Hmm I said 3 Sep would be a down day, we would get a RNC bounce and that 13 Sep would be a up date (Monday prior to triple witching). That could of made you $2625, like I did :^in my TSP.

MT



First of all, I didn't "talk" Joel into anything. Secondly, for anyone who has been following me all me year, they have made 16.81% on only five transactions. Thirdly, my transactions are documented, are yours? You say today that you went 80% G on Monday, why not say it BEFORE you do it? You seem to make the "right" call at exactly the right time. Shouldn't you be hanging out with Warren Buffet or something? Fourthly, I was also out that Friday. Fifthly, most of us here don't want to trade every day, we have lives. Give me my 20% every year and I'm happy.

So where you been the past few days? In the "hospital" again or just adjusting your meds?

Lastly, why are you here? You're no longer with the govt. You call us "dip wits" and yell at us. Why not just leave? Go to investors anonymous or something. Better yet, why not go to New Orleans and get the TSP back up and running. Wear concrete shoes please.............

Bye MT, you've just been "iggied"

I am here to P.O. you off!

Hopefully some folks like my inputs.

I only yell at you :P.

The sell off is starting...good luck!

MT

MarketTimer wrote:
I am here to P.O. you off!

Hopefully some folks like my inputs.

I only yell at you :P.

The sell off is starting...good luck!

MT



By the way I told Tom I was going 80% G fund over the weekend. I do not put all my secrets on this board because of people like you.

He can back me up!

MT

MarketTimer wrote:
I am here to P.O. you off!

Hopefully some folks like my inputs.

I only yell at you :P.

The sell off is starting...good luck!

MT



And you are a BOLD face liar sir! And what the hell is "P.O. you off"?

Im 100% G remember?

MarketTimer wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
I am here to P.O. you off!

Hopefully some folks like my inputs.

I only yell at you :P.

The sell off is starting...good luck!

MT




By the way I told Tom I was going 80% G fund over the weekend. I do not put all my secrets on this board because of people like you.

He can back me up!

MT

Then leave, we're here to help each other not yell at each other.

Milk,

You were the person that started it. With the take your med comments. If you can not take it...do not dish it out.

If you are cool with me I am cool with you.

:)

MT