Spaf
09-04-2004, 08:22 PM
Typically, September is thethe worst month of the yearfor stocks; mutual funds dump their losing stocks at the end of the fiscal year, and some companies discover they've run over budget and cut spending.
Some analysts believe this September could be different, however. For one thing, election-year Septembers are typically positive. Tom (tsptalk) had a chart for election years. Maybe, he could relist it or tell us where he archived it. If Iraq settles down or oil prices fall, or if President Bush, Wall Street's favorite horse in the November presidential race seems to gain ground on his challenger, John Kerry, (D-Mass.), then stocks could gain steam.
Some folks have said that the week following the convention could be choppy.
I agree with MT that we are in a bear market. The 2003 bull market ended in the first part of 2004. Since then, we have been in oscillating marketconditions that did run in about 30 day cycles, and where the overalltrend has curved downward (bearish). What I am saying is what is onthe S&P 500 chart for 1yr. For short term investors, you have to be careful if you are in stocks, you will have to play the cycles the market is now in. Having better or worsethingsto do, thats what I do! But, you better have a system, and not just a guess, thats gambling. For long term, you should be in the G fund where it is stable, no losses and some profits.The YTD returns for the TSP that I found on another site were:
G=2.9%, F=2.4%, C=1.3%, S=1.4% and I=1.9% If you are a long term investor, and don't care for market timing. The numbers tell you where you should be!
And, I would not be in the F fund with interest rates on the rise.
The following S&P 550 chart is from Yahoo. Ihave overlayed a 20 day moving average (solid red line), and a parabolic SAR (dots). I use the trends. When the market is going up I'll be in the C-S-I funds, generally on a ratio reflective of their historical returns of 15 days. When the trend starts going down, I go to the G fund.
I wish the market was like it was in 2003, but that's not the case now! In 2003 the S fund was up 43%. You could invest and let it ride coaster up! That was 2003.....
Some analysts believe this September could be different, however. For one thing, election-year Septembers are typically positive. Tom (tsptalk) had a chart for election years. Maybe, he could relist it or tell us where he archived it. If Iraq settles down or oil prices fall, or if President Bush, Wall Street's favorite horse in the November presidential race seems to gain ground on his challenger, John Kerry, (D-Mass.), then stocks could gain steam.
Some folks have said that the week following the convention could be choppy.
I agree with MT that we are in a bear market. The 2003 bull market ended in the first part of 2004. Since then, we have been in oscillating marketconditions that did run in about 30 day cycles, and where the overalltrend has curved downward (bearish). What I am saying is what is onthe S&P 500 chart for 1yr. For short term investors, you have to be careful if you are in stocks, you will have to play the cycles the market is now in. Having better or worsethingsto do, thats what I do! But, you better have a system, and not just a guess, thats gambling. For long term, you should be in the G fund where it is stable, no losses and some profits.The YTD returns for the TSP that I found on another site were:
G=2.9%, F=2.4%, C=1.3%, S=1.4% and I=1.9% If you are a long term investor, and don't care for market timing. The numbers tell you where you should be!
And, I would not be in the F fund with interest rates on the rise.
The following S&P 550 chart is from Yahoo. Ihave overlayed a 20 day moving average (solid red line), and a parabolic SAR (dots). I use the trends. When the market is going up I'll be in the C-S-I funds, generally on a ratio reflective of their historical returns of 15 days. When the trend starts going down, I go to the G fund.
I wish the market was like it was in 2003, but that's not the case now! In 2003 the S fund was up 43%. You could invest and let it ride coaster up! That was 2003.....