Interfund Transfer 4/23 for 4/24/07

[tsptalk]

I will initiate an interfund transfer Monday morning going to 100% F fund.

[MarkB]

Tom

Curious of your reasoning to buy F right now vs stocks?


F Fund
http://quotes.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=VBMFX
I fund
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=EFA
C Fund
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=VFINX
S Fund
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=DSC

[tsptalk]

Hi Mark -

The AGG chart broke a short-term down trend. See http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_4_18_07.html.

Stocks are overbought at this point. Could hold if already in, but not buying here.

[azanon]

Could hold if already in, but not buying here.

There's absolutely no logic to this statement. If one shouldn't be in stocks today, it should make no difference what one has invested in yesterday. The converse is true too.

This is the same kind of logic that makes someone think red is more likely to hit on a roulette table just because they can see it has hit black the past 7 times. In reality, past decisions don't effect future ones. Probability 101.

[Birchtree]

Azanon,

Hey, it's his money win or lose. I'm thinking of using him as my contrary indicator - when he gets in the bulls get out. He may stay on the wrong side for the next one thousand points - so be it. I'll humbly take mine now.

[tsptalk]

Quote:


Originally Posted by tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=90821#post90821)
Could hold if already in, but not buying here.
There's absolutely no logic to this statement. If one shouldn't be in stocks today, it should make no difference what one has invested in yesterday. The converse is true too.
Would you tell your mother to buy here if she were currently in cash? No. Would you tell Birchtree to hold here since he's made good money the last several months? Yes. It's called money management - OPM. Works the same for gambling.

The only thing that doesn't make sense is why you only show up when the Dow is up 100 points. :rolleyes:

[tsptalk]

I'm thinking of using him as my contrary indicator - when he gets in the bulls get out. He may stay on the wrong side for the next one thousand points - so be it. I'll humbly take mine now.
Watch it Birch. I'm not in a good mood. You guys are in my house. ;)

[Birchtree]

Tom,

The Dow went up from 12,000 to 13,000 in 127 trading days - approximately in six months. What happens if this momentum carries us another 1,000 points in another six months. Currently my price projection is 14,500 by the end of the year. Remember, it was 2003 when the Dow traveled 3,000 points in one year. Wouldn't you like to see 1995 again? Sorry to leave that wheel barrow load of manure on your front lawn.

[350zCommTech]

Tom,

What is your opinion on the $VIX's actions in the last few days? Today was another strange one. It finished up a little while the SPX was up 1%. From what I've seen, this is normally a very short term buy signal. But with most of the indices' now in the overbought territory, TA wise, I think a sell off is at hand. I just hope they wait till Friday.

[tsptalk]

To be honest 350z, I don't watch the VIX on a day to day basis so I don't really have an opinion on that. I will follow the long-term readings for signs of fear and euphoria though. I assume the short-term is a microcosm of the long-term but you are right, this move up is rather strange considering the big rally. I noticed the OEX put/call ratio went up as well, which is the opposite of what we're used to seeing. Maybe the rally still has room to run?

[ATCJeff]

Tom,

Somehow I feel that the three thousand members on this site are keeping you from trading your account the way you would normally. I'm sure your email account is over-flowing with hate mail tonight. It's got to be tough. I would not want to be in your position. But your smart enough to know that the market could have just as easily lost 150 pts today.

Please remember that the majority of members appreciate what your are doing for all of us. I for one appreciate the sacrifice that you have made on our behalf. Keep putting family first and the rest will work out over the long term.

On another note, Trader Fred's system generated a great buy signal. You brought him to us.

I thank you and your family.

Sincerely,

Jeff

[Spaf]

Quote:


Originally Posted by tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=90821#post90821)
Could hold if already in, but not buying here.
There's absolutely no logic to this statement. If one shouldn't be in stocks today, it should make no difference what one has invested in yesterday. The converse is true too.


Would you tell your mother to buy here if she were currently in cash? No. Would you tell Birchtree to hold here since he's made good money the last several months? Yes. It's called money management - OPM. Works the same for gambling.

The only thing that doesn't make sense is why you only show up when the Dow is up 100 points. :rolleyes:

The best time to have bought in on this bullish trend would have been about April 9th. However, there was a problem. The problem was that there were four days of low volume.

Volume is used as a confirming indicator. In other words bullishness is confirmed by a higher-than-average trading volume. That is why technicians say, "Volume confirms price."

To buy in around April the 9th was the correct call, in hindsight, if you disregard risk. Without hindsight it would have been a gamble. Afterwards, you would just be chasing a trend.

[tsptalk]

I thank you and your family.

Sincerely,

Jeff
Thanks for the kind words Jeff!

[Show-me]

Tom,

Your beating me. Hope that helps a little.

[tsptalk]

Bond yields really moving higher (prices down) this morning. Are the bond traders sniffing trouble in the GDP and other inflationary related reports due out tomorrow?

[ATCJeff]

Bond yields really moving higher (prices down) this morning. Are the bond traders sniffing trouble in the GDP and other inflationary related reports due out tomorrow?

I was thinking the same thing. If GDP comes out higher than 2.0. Bonds will sell off tomorrow. My feelings have the Feds leaning towards hike vs cut. High GDP will only fuel the fire towards increase. Though housing troubles put the Fed Board in a tough spot.

[tsptalk]

It seems strange that the Dow Transports are down over 1% while bond yields are up so much. Transports tend to go down when economic data is weak, and bond yields usually move down on weak economic data. Something seems out of whack.

[tsptalk]

Could hold if already in, but not buying here.


There's absolutely no logic to this statement. If one shouldn't be in stocks today, it should make no difference what one has invested in yesterday. The converse is true too.

Would you tell your mother to buy here if she were currently in cash? No. Would you tell Birchtree to hold here since he's made good money the last several months? Yes. It's called money management - OPM. Works the same for gambling.

The only thing that doesn't make sense is why you only show up when the Dow is up 100 points. :rolleyes:
I guess Jim Cramer has no logic either. Either that or he read my post yesterday. ;)



Stop Worrying and Hold On
http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/c.gif
By Jim Cramer (http://apps.thestreet.com/cms/email/rmyEmailStory.do?storyId=10353213&authorId=269&storyUrl=/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10353213.html)
RealMoney.com Columnist
4/26/2007 3:32 PM EDT
...Stop worrying. Wait for a pullback, and get in. If you are in already, the toughest thing is to hold on, and you must do the toughest thing right now.


So, hold if you are already in, but wait for a pullback to buy? Hmmm. Good advice. :D

[350zCommTech]

Tom,

After Mondays big drop in yields, I'd expected a reversal in yields, especially with the recent good news on ISM and durable orders. I find yesterdays' and todays' bond movements very interesting. Could it be that traders are expecting more surprising bad economic news? i.e. a very low jobs number? Are you planning on staying in the F fund for the job numbers? Every time that I've gamble on the jobs numbers, in the F fund, I've lost big.

I know you don't watch the vix on a daily basis, but my view of today's vix (upside down candle stick) is that despite todays' rally, traders were pricing in risk towards the end of the day. I have a feeling we're going to see some profit taking tomorrow.

[tsptalk]

It definitely was strange activity recently but it probably had to do with the $ 0.382 dividend paid yesterday. Looking at just the closing prices, the AGG is actually behaving rather "normal" and well. It is riding the 20-day MA but I guess a stronger than expected employment report could send it down to the 50-day MA. But right now I like the action, the trend remains positive and stable. Only a move below 99 would change that at the moment.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/agg5.gif

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/agg4.gif

[tsptalk]

If the AGG can hold up and pick up what looks like .02 today, we'll have a new record close for the AGG (F fund). Woohoo! Where's the CNBC flashing record high banner for that one? :D :rolleyes:

Oh, yeah, and Monday the G fund will make a new all-time high too. :D

[insert flashing banner here]

[350zCommTech]

If the AGG can hold up and pick up what looks like .02 today, we'll have a new record close for the AGG (F fund). Woohoo! Where's the CNBC flashing record high banner for that one? :D :rolleyes:

Oh, yeah, and Monday the G fund will make a new all-time high too. :D

[insert flashing banner here]

I'm surprise you didn't move to the G fund.

[tsptalk]

I thought about it. It seems like when I do that - just to pick up the penny - the F fund does as well or better. So I'll stick with the short-term uptrend of the AGG. It seems to be hanging above that 20-day MA.