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tsptalk
09-02-2004, 09:14 AM
Please discuss namor's strategy and account transactions here.

09-03-2004, 07:31 AM
Sorry about that F fund yesterday namor, good luck with the S today........

tsptalk
09-21-2004, 06:40 PM
Nice going on that I fund Namor! :^

namor
09-22-2004, 09:16 AM
There is no rule six!



No change today. If the market looks down again tomorrow morning, watch out.



100% F Fund today.

cowboy
09-22-2004, 09:32 AM
I'm right with you Namor, except I'm thinking this market might drop all week. I got burned on this deal back in April when the market peaked then went down 40+ cents in 3 days. I'm thinking this might drop real quick and scare everyone out then come shooting up again. Currently 100% G and smiling!:cool:If only we had that crystalball.

namor
09-22-2004, 11:02 AM
The market has dropped so much today, I made a last minute decision based on a gut feeling and went to the S Fund.

Hope this works out for me. I can't resist when the market falls more than a percent.

cowboy
09-22-2004, 11:10 AM
I know what you mean I'm going to set out I have anice gain and will preserve my funds. The funds have peaked and if C can hold 1115 tomorrow then I might make a play other wise I'll let the bears eat! Nothing worse then a hungry Bear. Good Luck to you!:^

Mike
09-22-2004, 11:13 AM
We might lose a lot more than 1% if this continues. :shock:

Strange. I made a last-minute decision against all my better judgment and requested an interfund transfer to 50 F / 50 G. I don't know if I was able to sneak it in before the deadline or not - it was close. Now I don't expect more long-term weakness this fall - I'm just hoping to capitalize on a short-term plunge to buy back my stock fund shares at a much lower price.

namor
09-23-2004, 10:19 AM
I decided to go toe to toe with the markets and am playing the S fund for two straight days.

Hope I don't get knocked on my can!

Cmon S fund. Pick up today and rebound tomorrow!

FundSurfer
09-23-2004, 11:18 AM
Can someone check my math? (The reason I'm asking is because I'm using a modified version of Tom's spreadsheet and the trade date is important. I think I've got it straight but wanted to make sure. namors account is a good check cause he has tracked his trades well and has made a bunch of them.)

For the month, I've got namor at 1.13%

For the month, I've got 0.28% G, 0.68% F, 0.68% C, 2.07% S, & 1.29% I. (If you compare my numbers to tspmoney.com I'm right on except they start the month from 8/31 and I started calculating for namor on 9/1...If I started from 8/31 my numbers match tspmoney.com.)

namor, how about giving us a little bit of a clue as to your decision making process.

namor
09-23-2004, 11:57 AM
Fundsurfer:

I am not tracking my percentage, but I know from my daily balance how well I am doing.

I posted my strategy earlier in the Short Term Strategies category:

"I never stay more thana couple days in a single fund. I retreat to G and F if I feel that I need to wait and see. If a fund goes down for more than two days, I try to play the bounce. Rarely do the funds drop day after day after day, so if you get lucky and time things right, you can come out ahead of any single fund."



That is why I termed my strategy Vegas/Boxer. . . its a gambler's strategy of looking at fluctuations. I look at all the funds. If one drops a little more than the others, then I will try to play its 'bounce.' I check the price of oil, whether there is earnings news, Fed news, any reports coming up and try to time it right, kind of like looking over a Daily Racing Form before a big stakes race.

Its not really a system. Its more of a calculated gamble.

Good luck in your investment decisions.

namor
09-23-2004, 05:06 PM
Between rounds:

Cmon, namor, don't let him keep hitting you with that left! Throw some more punches!

:*

OKay, I am going back out there for more!(I left it in the S Fund)

S Fund, be good to me. :h

cowboy
09-23-2004, 06:04 PM
LoL!!!! Get back up Namor fight him cowboy style, kick him in the groin. LoL!!! I'm laughing tonight, you and Tom will laugh tomorrow, when you pickup that gain tomorrow before the weekend, if not, maybe Monday. :l

namor
09-23-2004, 09:19 PM
Wow.

After looking at the fund prices I didn't do bad at all yesterday. Hardly hurt a bit. Now I need an S rally.





"This guy ain't got nuthin' on you. You have him.Throw your right!"

Go S Fund, lets get a K.O.

namor
09-24-2004, 09:12 AM
The I fund has been knocked around for most of the week, so I am betting that it does a rebound Monday. It's a gamble, because there are two weekend days that world events could affect it.

This, of course, is only my opinion. There are no guarantees.

Good luck to you.

namor
09-28-2004, 10:38 AM
The price of coffee is scaring me back into the F Fund until further notice. ;)



Today: 100% S Fund

Tomorrow: 100% F Fund

TheProphet
09-28-2004, 10:50 AM
For me F funds is a waste... G is more secure...

C, S and I more profitables whenbullish time comes...

Leon

TheProphet
09-28-2004, 10:59 AM
My position and short comment is on my freepersonal webpage...

http://www.geocities.com/earn100kplus/TSP.html?1096036971578

Leon

namor
09-28-2004, 11:36 AM
lkatteng wrote:
For me F funds is a waste... G is more secure...

C, S and I more profitables whenbullish time comes...

Leon



Each of us has their own strategy. As for the comment in the transaction account (where no comments are supposed to be made, btw according to tsptalk's 'rules') about never taking a loss, you could be losing by waiting for a gain while other markets are fluctuating. For those who play fluctuations, staying put can lose you money.

Sometimes you have to takea punch to land two.

Sometimes you have to have to take a seven out on a point that is fourto hit the next point with better odds.(dice talk)

I will post my monthly 'statement' on October 1.

Good luck to you in your investments.

TheProphet
09-28-2004, 12:29 PM
You are right everyone has different strategies...

for different situations... Etc...

Good Luck in your investments too...

namor
09-29-2004, 08:57 AM
I put all my eggs into the C Fund basket for the last day of the month. It looks like the market may be a little down or flat today. If it picks up and shows a positive move before 11 AM, I may change this.

Tomorrow: 100% C Fund

Roll them bones!

tsptalk
09-29-2004, 08:59 AM
Namor-

Great job with the account. Since you are one of the more active traders, is there any chance we can get you to put the fund prices and / or returns of your trades when they are completed? Anything thatwill help us see how you are doing.

Thanks again!
Tom

namor
09-29-2004, 09:23 AM
tsptalk wrote:
Namor-

Great job with the account. Since you are one of the more active traders, is there any chance we can get you to put the fund prices and / or returns of your trades when they are completed? Anything thatwill help us see how you are doing.

Thanks again!
Tom



I'm on it already Tom. I have charted my progress for this month and will be posting it on Friday, along with a mythical account of$10,000 invested in my moves would have made. I'd rather do that once a month, as I spend most of the other time trying to figure out what to play.

FundSurfer
09-29-2004, 08:39 PM
Namor, have you ever had a trade delayed beyond the end of the day when you have made a trade by 11:00 am? Since you make a bunch of trades, I figure you'd be more likely than most for this to happen to.

tsptalk
09-30-2004, 12:46 AM
namor wrote:
I have charted my progress for this month and will be posting it on Friday, along with a mythical account of$10,000 invested in my moves would have made. I'd rather do that once a month, as I spend most of the other time trying to figure out what to play.

Great!

namor
09-30-2004, 08:20 AM
FundSurfer wrote:
Namor, have you ever had a trade delayed beyond the end of the day when you have made a trade by 11:00 am? Since you make a bunch of trades, I figure you'd be more likely than most for this to happen to.
No.

I have never experienced a delay as long as I make it by 11 AM CT. One time I made my change last minute, at 10:57 AM, and it took by the COB.

Good luck in your investments.

namor
09-30-2004, 10:27 AM
It's a new month!

I am starting fresh with a clean sheet to track my October funds. To start the new month, I am going aggressive again and putting it all into the S fund.

31 days to gamble this month.

Sep 30 - 100% C

Oct 1 - 100% S

namor
10-01-2004, 08:38 AM
SEPTEMBER 2004

Date Fund Bought SoldGain/Loss Balance
1 I 13.17 13.20 22.78 10022.78
2 F 10.30 10.27 (29.19) 9993.59
3 S 12.71 12.65 (47.18) 9946.41
7-9 F 10.23 10.28 48.61 9995.02
10 I 13.24 13.38 105.69 10100.71
13 S 12.84 12.91 55.07 10155.78
14-20 F 10.30 10.35 49.29 10205.07
21 I 13.33 13.56 176.08 10381.15
22 F10.35 10.37 20.06 10401.21
23-24 S 12.84 12.86 16.20 10417.41
27-28 I 13.32 13.30 (15.64) 10401.77
29 F 10.36 10.33 (30.12) 10371.65
30 C 11.82 11.82 0.00 10371.65

Total gain in September: 3.716 %

This chart uses a mythical investment amount of $10,000. The dateis what happened on that date; the bought is the previous day'sclose price, and the sell is the end of that day's price.The Gain/Loss column shows what the shares did for that day, and are added or subtracted from the previous day's balance. I used the new balance figure after gain/loss to purchase the next round of shares. All figures are rounded to the nearest penny.

Using $10,000 as a base investment figure makes it easy to apply that number to what your overall fund would have done by multiplying. For instance, if you have $45,000 in your account, just multiply the total earned by 4.5. It also makes it easier to calculate the total percentage gain/loss.

If you followed the 13 moves I made in the month of September, you would have earned $371.66 for each $10,000.00 invested. September wasn't that great on returns for me, but overall, I'll take a 3.716% gain.

Luckily, the game never ends.:u

Let's all have a great October.

TheProphet
10-01-2004, 09:35 AM
CONGRATULATIONS !

Namor,

in 12 years you will be able to turn $10,000 into about $2 Millions at that rate...

I expect to do similar...

Good for You...

Leon

cowboy
10-01-2004, 10:41 AM
Yeh Namor!! Looks like you are going to get some nice gains again for the start of October! Hopefully F will pay off some on Monday too! I hope so as that is where I am at at the moment! :^

10-01-2004, 10:55 AM
Nice job namor, sure which I could rely on someones hunches, :P

tsptalk
10-01-2004, 01:16 PM
Leon, please ask your questions in the "Account Talk" forum rather than the "Account" forum. Thanks. I moved this one...

From lkatteng...

namor,

Why do you like so much the F Fund ?

Am I missing something...

For me G for safety...

and C, S for Stock agressive advancements...

I also sound good when the $ index is going down...

Would you please tell me what do you find so attractive on the F Fund ?

Just Curious ?

Thanks...



Namor's reponse...

Leon:

Thanks for the question.

Here is why I find the F Fund more attractive in most cases than the G Fund:

As I stated in one of my first posts, I am a gambler. I play Vegas the same way as I play the markets. I look for possible fluctuation. Markets go up, and they go down. If I see losses two days in a row, I am likely to go into that fund, because the high risk funds can fluctuate at a more frenzied pace.

G Fund will always pay a penny about once a week. We all know that. It's nice to be in the G when it pays that penny, but its not if you are sitting in there the other four daysand seeing other funds making big gains. To me, a loss is staying even while missing a big gain, even if its just a day. F Fund, meanwhile, may go up a few pennies while the market is on a down day, making it the only fund to have the potential togain more than a penny for that particular day. If F Fund loses, its rare that it loses more than anickel. A nickel can be made up easily by staying in the F Fund and getting outwhen it fluctuates, or by hitting the high risk funds on a good day.

Hope this helps you understand my strategy. Good luck in your investments.

Cinderella
10-01-2004, 01:56 PM
Namor, Did you know that college students are taking in some poker, roulette, and live music? Not for pleasure - for college credit. There is a growing movement toward college educated blackjack dealers, casino security experts, restaurant & entertainment managers, and gaming managers. Class laboratories take on new definitions in these courses that include green felt poker tables, and red & black roulette wheels. Casino nights to benefit charities, and field trips to Vegas, Atlantic City, and the countless Indian-owned casinos in between are part of the course load. Gambling 101 is a pioneer effort that could expand to a four-year degree in entertainment and gaming electronics at some colleges. It's a tough life, but somebody has to do it! :D

By-the-way, thank-you for sharing your account moves with us. I am astounded that you are so successful with your gambling strategy. Thank you again. I must get back to my charts, MA's, etc, etc... which I have named project CSI: ella

namor
10-01-2004, 02:13 PM
Cinderella:

Wow, Gambling 101 as a course? Thats interesting.

As for being astounded about my strategy, you really don't have to be. It's all in timing. For instance,if anybodyhad made only one buy and sellmove all month, you would have beaten my system. Aug 31 - Buy S Sep 30 - Sell S

Of course, you would have to know which day to buy and which day to sell. If you just sat in the S all year, you would have made and lostYTD and end up with just a slightly smaller gain thanif you just bought at the end of August and sold at the end of September. You would have missed opportunities as they came up.

I only hit 8 of my 13 moves. But that's the gambler/boxer strategy, you have to take yourlosses and not worry, then get out of those funds to try to get into one that is set to go up.

Thank you for your comments.

FundSurfer
10-01-2004, 03:01 PM
Thanks for posting the table of numbers, it helped me find a datingerror in the way I calculate based gains.

tsptalk
10-03-2004, 08:13 PM
This has been difficult to enforce so I'll have tocontinue to remind everyonethat if you have a question or comment about namor's account, please post it here. Do not use the actual "Account" forum for his purpose. The "Account Talk" forums are for that purpose.

That is true of all the members' accounts. I have to delete the posts in the "Account" forums to keep them clean so we can go in and quickly see what that member is doing.

Much appreciation.
Tom

namor
10-06-2004, 10:52 AM
It has been difficult to sit idling in the F this week, and I am going to jump into the S river and swim downstream a ways.

Hope there's no waterfalls ahead. I'm rolling the dice. . .

Today: 100% FFund

Tomorrow: 100% S Fund

namor
10-15-2004, 10:26 AM
I feel the need for SPEED! Top gunning it into the I fund.



Today: S Fund 100%

Tomorrow: I fund 100%

tsptalk
10-15-2004, 06:49 PM
Good for you namor. All or nothing :^.

How's your return doing since you started the account?

namor
10-18-2004, 10:52 AM
I am changing my allocation again.



Today: I Fund 100%

Tomorrow: C Fund 100%



Note: Tom, I will do another chart at the end of month detailing all my October moves as well as gains/losses.

namor
10-19-2004, 10:03 AM
Back to the Future:



I am gambling that the future is in S.



Today: 100% C Fund

Tomorrow: 100% S Fund

FundSurfer
10-19-2004, 11:01 AM
Namor, you got a lot of room for improvement!

The maximum possible gain for September was 11.9%, you only got 3.7%. There is plenty of room for improvement! (The largest possible loss was -8.3% BTW.)

Now this is just tongue in cheek because you beat the C-fund (0.9%), S-fund (3.2%), and the I-fund (1.8%)... (and me for that matter (1.47%) for September.

I guess what I am confirming is what you already know, that the stakes are pretty high and that there is a bunch of possible gain if you pick'em right.

namor
10-19-2004, 11:40 AM
If I ever have a month where I pick every single gain possible, that would be fantastic. Like winning the lottery.

I would probably have to start a TSP advisor business!

But alas, it will probably never happen to any of us.



Good luck in your investments.

namor
10-20-2004, 07:56 AM
As a gambler, a sure thing is worth betting on.



Today: 100% S fund

Tomorrow: 100% G fund

namor
10-21-2004, 10:16 AM
Did you say NIAGARA FALLS?! Slowly I turned. . .

Clawing my way back. . .



Today 100% G (as in GO PENNY!)

Tomorrow: 100% F Fund

namor
10-22-2004, 10:02 AM
I'm playing this one off the wall. ..



Today: F Fund

Monday: C Fund

tsptalk
10-22-2004, 07:02 PM
namor wrote:
I'm playing this one off the wall. ..

Today: F Fund

Monday: C Fund

I like it. Playing the chop of the market.

namor
10-26-2004, 09:27 AM
It's been a tough battle this month, the early rounds had me reeling. But this week looks promising. I can't resist a low dollar and oil.

Able was I ere I saw Elba. Its time to spend a day or two in the I fund.



Today: 100% C fund

Tomorrow: 100% I fund

namor
10-27-2004, 09:19 AM
The right horse came in (C) yesterday! but. . .

I am not staying long. 88 mph. . . Back to theF(uture)



Today: 100% I fund

Tomorrow: 100% F Fund

namor
10-28-2004, 10:00 AM
Wow, what a month its been trying to climb out of this gorge. I am parkinG on the last day of the month.

Today: 100% F

Tomorrow: 100% G

namor
10-28-2004, 10:55 AM
Last minute change!



Today: 100% F

Tomorrow: 100% C

FundSurfer
10-28-2004, 01:46 PM
Isn't this going against your standard strategy? C is up for 2 days big and looks at 11 am like it may be ralleying late to go positive again. Seems like you be buying on 3 positive days. Wouldn't you think there would be a rest? Or do you see the market running and you are trying to jump on board? I guess I still have work to do to figure you out.

namor
10-28-2004, 01:51 PM
I saw a flat market, verging on a loss at the time I made this decision. I see that the market has picked up this afternoon, however.

You're right, if the market was positive this morning, I would have stayed with my original G play. I can only hope at this point that this decision will play out in my favor.

10-28-2004, 01:57 PM
I would hope that the C took a breather tomorrow if you are buying so you get a lower price. Correct? That's why I was hoping the S would be down today.

Comment TTD?

FundSurfer
10-28-2004, 02:04 PM
He owns C as of tonight so tommorrows gains or losses are his.

I was looking at the general trend for the day and it looked like it was headed positive although you are right it was flat around 11 but that was after it had recovered from starting down. Looks to me like it will end positive but not as great a day as the last two. We'll see.

namor
10-29-2004, 10:19 AM
It's the end of the month as we know it.

Gee, time to move some money.



Today: 100% C

Monday: 100% G

namor
11-01-2004, 08:22 AM
Result for October 2004:

DateFund Bought Sold10000 G/LBALANCE
1-3 S 12.98 13.18 154.08 10154.08
4-6 F 10.29 10.29 (0.00) 10154.08
7-14 S 13.31 12.91 (305.16) 9848.92
15-18 I 13.62 13.59 (21.69) 9827.23
19 C 11.82 11.71 (91.45) 9735.78
20 S 12.87 12.92 37.82 9773.60
21 G 10.59 10.59 (0.00) 9773.60
22-24 F 10.40 10.41 9.40 9783.00
25-26 C 11.63 11.79 134.59 9917.59
27 I 13.71 13.85 101.27 10018.86
28 F 10.38 10.38 (0.00) 10018.86
29 C 11.97 12.00 25.11 10043.97

Total gain/loss in October: .43% (that's .43 of one percent ;)

This chart uses a mythical investment amount of $10,000. The date is what happened on that date; the bought is the previous close price, and the sell is the end of that day's price. I used the new balance figure after gain/loss to purchase the next round of shares.

Using $10,000 as a base investment figure makes it easy to apply that number to what your overall fund would have done by multiplying. For instance, if you have $45,000 in your account, just multiply the total earned by 4.5. It also makes it easier to calculate the total percentage gain/loss.

As you can see, it was a battle to get back to even for most of October. I am glad to be able to show anything over the original $10,000.

As always: Good luck to you in your investments.

namor
11-01-2004, 08:23 AM
For election day, I elect to to go into the F fund.



Today: 100% G fund

Tomorrow: 100% F Fund

namor
11-01-2004, 11:57 AM
Let's go to the RACES!

For NovemberI am going to do a strategy based on horse racing. It does seem likeyour horse has come inwhen you hit the right fund, so I am going toplay based on that similarity.

Each day will be a new race between the five funds. The good part about a five horse race is that there are fewer horses to choose from, increasing your chance of winning. Of course, you have a pretty good idea that G Fund is not always going to be a favorite. That doesn't meanthat Gwon't finish first, it just will remain the same during many of the races. The race each day will usually be between the S, F, and C funds. Its something different, but as you all know, I am a gambler, this is just another way oflooking at gambling with your TSP.

Place your wagers early to avoid being shut out!

My bet today is on the G Fund to win. Tomorrow's race I am betting on F.

namor
11-02-2004, 09:45 AM
Yesterday's race result:

1. S fund (by a nose)

2. I Fund

3. C Fund/G Fund(tie)



Morning line: I think the horse from overseas will take the post election race day.

Today: F Fund

Tomorrow: I Fund

namor
11-03-2004, 08:41 AM
Race result for Tuesday:

Win - I Fund (rolls home in the stretch)

Place - F Fund



Today I am 100% I Fund, I am betting the S will still have the horses tomorrow to come in first.

Cinderella
11-03-2004, 09:24 AM
Namor, my friend, don't you mean the S fund ? Please don't make the same mistake on your tsp interfund transfer.

namor
11-03-2004, 11:16 AM
Cinderella wrote:
Namor, my friend, don't you mean the S fund ? Please don't make the same mistake on your tsp interfund transfer.


Hey Cinde:

The posted 'race results' will always be based on the previous day's close, whichever fund would have paid you the most money. So at the end of Tuesday, the I Fund gained the most with 11 cents, the F Fund finished second with a 1 cent gain, and none of the other funds evenhad a gain.

For today Ihope the I Fund comes in first, and I am picking the S fund tobe the winnertomorrow.

Hopes this helps to understand my racing analogy, as off base as it may seem. ;) Good luck in your investments.

Cinderella
11-03-2004, 12:32 PM
Namor, Thank you for clearing that up for me. I was in a hurry this morning and I didn't catch that you were referring to Tuesday's race. Good Luck.

namor
11-03-2004, 05:51 PM
Results are Official for Nov 3:

WIN - S Fund (Handily, up at finish)

PLACE - C Fund (Always in in the race, slowed in the stretch)

SHOW - I Fund (Close finish third)

note: SHOW result willonly be posted in the November Races in instances where the amount nets a substantial gain for the player.

TheProphet
11-04-2004, 07:30 AM
I am certain I will see the S&P on 1200in the next few couple months !!!

namor
11-04-2004, 09:26 AM
Morning Line for Friday's race:

Gomango Steady run in last few races, but not enough speed in the stretch.

Funkybean Could challenge at the finish.

C-How TheyrunCould burn out in the backstretch.

Special Delivery Early speed could finish this one early.

I-ransofarOverseas entry faces too much in this race.



Analysis: Funkybean has more than he showed recently. Today: 100% S fund. Tomorrow: 100% F Fund.

namor
11-04-2004, 05:30 PM
November 4, 2004 - Today's Race Result



PHOTO



HOLD ALL TICKETS!

namor
11-04-2004, 05:52 PM
Today's Race Result:

WIN- C FUND
PLACE- I FUND
SHOW- S FUND

Highlights: I Fund raced to an early lead, but tired quickly and was overtaken by S Fund and C Fund in the backstretch. C Fund stayed ahead of a persistent S Fund most of the way,and finished strong while I Fund nosed past a fading S in the photo finish for the place.

namor
11-05-2004, 08:48 AM
Morning LineforMonday's race


G)Scent of Penny Possible spoiler. Steady pacer.
Fundbags Easily the favorite
C-Moss Early speed, but could falter.
SnakeOil Could slip low earlybut have a great finish.
Icon Bet your bottom dollar.


Analysis: Slow and steady race could favor Fundbags, but Icon could surprise.

Today: 100% on Funkybean

Monday: 100% on Icon

namor
11-05-2004, 05:55 PM
namor wrote:
Morning Line for Friday's race:

Gomango Steady run in last few races, but not enough speed in the stretch.

Funkybean Could challenge at the finish.

C-How TheyrunCould burn out in the backstretch.

Special Delivery Early speed could finish this one early.

I-ransofarOverseas entry faces too much in this race.



Analysis: Funkybean has more than he showed recently. Today: 100% S fund. Tomorrow: 100% F Fund.

FRIDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN I-Ransofar
PLACE C-How Theyrun
SHOW Special Delivery


C-How Theyrun broke from the gate early, held the pace through the backstretch, but was overtaken by a surging I-Ransofar and Special Delivery as Funkybean languished in the rear. Pace slowed at the far turn, allowing Special Delivery to close in the stretch before C-How Theyrun pulled out the place.

FundSurfer
11-05-2004, 08:38 PM
You are really getting into this race analogy thing aren't you namor? My grandmother used to watch to see which horse took the last whiz before race time and that is how she bet. Sometimes I feel thats how I make my decisions. Look for the fund that just got some relief and jump on it!

namor
11-05-2004, 09:12 PM
To be honest, looking and studying the numbers/trends all the time gets boring as hell. I'd rather have fun with it. Same numbers, different analogy. Beats the heck out of charts all the time, imho. Wait until you see Derby week ;)

Good luck in your investments.

namor
11-08-2004, 09:45 AM
Morning Line: Tuesday's Race entries

GyroZero Not much expected here.
FramedMe Could Surprise ahead of fed
Checkmate Cautious, but could finish
S-cargo Anything could happen
InterestPaid Low dollar could surprise

namor's pick: Low dollar, low oil , my I. Today: Icon. Tomorrow: Interest paid.

namor
11-08-2004, 06:29 PM
namor wrote:
Morning LineforMonday's race


G)Scent of Penny Possible spoiler. Steady pacer.
Fundbags Easily the favorite
C-Moss Early speed, but could falter.
SnakeOil Could slip low earlybut have a great finish.
Icon Bet your bottom dollar.


Analysis: Slow and steady race could favor Fundbags, but Icon could surprise.

Today: 100% on Funkybean

Monday: 100% on Icon

MONDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN G) Scent of Penny
PLACE Fundbags
NO SHOW

Icon stumbled early and it was C-Moss at the break, but was overtaken by SnakeOil before the first turn. Both faltered in the backstretch, allowing Fundbags and Scent of Penny to catch up going into the final stretch. It was Scent of Penny going home.

Safetyguy
11-08-2004, 08:52 PM
namor wrote:
That is why I termed my strategy Vegas/Boxer. . . its a gambler's strategy of looking at fluctuations. I look at all the funds. If one drops a little more than the others, then I will try to play its 'bounce.' I check the price of oil, whether there is earnings news, Fed news, any reports coming up and try to time it right, kind of like looking over a Daily Racing Form before a big stakes race.

Its not really a system. Its more of a calculated gamble.

Good luck in your investment decisions.

I dunno about the thoroughbred analogy --BUT if it makes you happy, keep at it ...

What would be helpful is more of the "stats"from Namor's "Daily Racing Forum" -- sort of to explain the method to your madness and your entire handicapping method. Basically, your unexplained strategy seems to work (even though I do think you are off by a day or two -- maybe on the early side). However, it makes complete sense to buy when a fund is down and play the bounce.

With that said, the 100 % F on Friday and the 100%I on Monday were not great "bets" for you. 100% inF wouldn't have been abad"bet" for Monday (and may have paid off if treasuries weren't sold in large quantities in anticipation of Wed.'s Fed Reserve meeting & possible rate hike. At least it broke even on Monday -- it could have been another bad day for the F fund like Friday). Ilike the factthat you are still in I for Tuesday -- the dollar is low right now.

Maybe with some more insight into your methods, some other TSPers can help you fine tune your "calculated gambles".

namor
11-08-2004, 09:25 PM
Thanks for your comments.

The thoroughbred analogy is simpler if you look at its basic design: You have to make a bet EVERY DAY.You might get lucky and hit the right fund (or horse) onetime or you might be looking ahead to the next race if you didn't win.

As for the handicapping,I hope nobody thinks that I have some information backing the Morning Line. I don't.Its all a guess based on some Yahoo info and the basic philosophy of racing:

Its a five horse race. You have a 20% chance to pick the winner.

Analogy: Its a lot more fun if you have 100% in the winning fund.

Good luck in your investments.

namor
11-09-2004, 08:36 AM
Morning Line: Wednesday's Race

Gomango Doubtful factor
Funkybean Could Surprise
C-How Theyrun Expect a lot
Special Delivery Could show something here
I-ransofar Has early speed

namor's pick: The Bean has been in a funk and could be a factor, but C-How Theyrun has been resilient. Today: InterestPaid Tomorrow: Special Delivery

namor
11-09-2004, 06:01 PM
namor wrote:
Morning Line: Tuesday's Race entries

GyroZero Not much expected here.
FramedMe Could Surprise ahead of fed
Checkmate Cautious, but could finish
S-cargo Anything could happen
InterestPaid Low dollar could surprise

namor's pick: Low dollar, low oil , my I. Today: Icon. Tomorrow: Interest paid.



TUESDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN - S-Cargo
PLACE - GyroZero

It was box to wire for S-Cargo in a relatively slow race. GyroZero gets the place solely on the steady record.

namor
11-10-2004, 08:35 AM
Morning Line: EDIT: FRIDAY'S Race entries

GeezoPeezo A slow pace could favor
F'd Up Showing nothing of late
C Ken Destroy Late finisher
Styletto Could be a contender
IshotthesheriffMarley's favorite

namor's pick: I'm bettin on Styletto to have a good race. Ishotthesherriff has the early pace but C Ken Destroy has the late speed. Today and tomorrow: 100% S


I forgot that the TSP returns won't post until Friday. So this is actually Friday's race.

namor
11-10-2004, 06:27 PM
namor wrote:
Morning Line: Wednesday's Race

Gomango Doubtful factor
Funkybean Could Surprise
C-How Theyrun Expect a lot
Special Delivery Could show something here
I-ransofar Has early speed

namor's pick: The Bean has been in a funk and could be a factor, but C-How Theyrun has been resilient. Today: InterestPaid Tomorrow: Special Delivery



WEDNESDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN Special Delivery
PLACE Gomango

C-How Theyrun and Iransofar set an early pace, but tired in the backstretch. Special Delivery showed late speed for the win while Gomango plodded in for the place.

namor
11-12-2004, 10:29 AM
Morning LineforMonday's race


G)Scent of Penny Slow pace could favor.
Fundbags Due for a place
C-Moss Computed for a good race.
SnakeOilPossible spoiler.
Icon Could do well here.


namor's pick: It could be a slow race, but if there's any speed, C-Moss should do well, with possible challenges by SnakeOil and Icon.

tsptalk
11-12-2004, 12:41 PM
Wheel the S for me will ya? S - all. And throw in an I-S exacta just in case. :)

Safetyguy
11-12-2004, 03:00 PM
tsptalk wrote:
Wheel the S for me will ya? S - all. And throw in an I-S exacta just in case. :)
I thinkNamor's 100% "bet" is on C, but it is hard to tell. Here's hoping for S to finish in the money.

namor
11-12-2004, 06:30 PM
Safetyguy wrote:

I thinkNamor's 100% "bet" is on C, but it is hard to tell. Here's hoping for S to finish in the money.




Actually, if you check my account that isn't the talk account, its easier to track where my bet is. Iput it in S on Tuesday morning. Just waitin for the returns to see how Styletto finished :)



Good luck in your investments.

namor
11-12-2004, 07:58 PM
namor wrote:
Morning Line: EDIT: FRIDAY'S Race entries

GeezoPeezo A slow pace could favor
F'd Up Showing nothing of late
C Ken Destroy Late finisher
Styletto Could be a contender
IshotthesheriffMarley's favorite

namor's pick: I'm bettin on Styletto to have a good race. Ishotthesherriff has the early pace but C Ken Destroy has the late speed. Today and tomorrow: 100% S


I forgot that the TSP returns won't post until Friday. So this is actually Friday's race.

FRIDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN Ishotthesheriff
PLACE Styletto
SHOW C Ken Destroy

It was C Ken Destroy and Styletto out at the break, and setting a sizzling pace. In the backstretch, Styletto took the lead, until Ishotthesheriff came flying in the homestretch to win going away.

namor
11-15-2004, 09:55 AM
Morning Line: Tuesday's Race

GyroZero Play it safe here
FramedMe Could show a lot
Checkmate Possible contender
S-cargo Is on a hot streak
InterestPaid Favorable conditions

namor's analysis: Will it be another slow day, or will S-Cargo outrun everybody? InterestPaid and Checkmate could challenge S-cargo.

namor
11-15-2004, 10:06 AM
I am sitting in the C Fund. For this month, I am trying to catch fluctuations by staying in each change that I have initiatedfor at least two days.

That's two days, by the book, Mr. Saavik.



Good luck in your investments!

namor
11-15-2004, 06:34 PM
namor wrote:
Morning LineforMonday's race


G)Scent of Penny Slow pace could favor.
Fundbags Due for a place
C-Moss Computed for a good race.
SnakeOilPossible spoiler.
Icon Could do well here.


namor's pick: It could be a slow race, but if there's any speed, C-Moss should do well, with possible challenges by SnakeOil and Icon.

MONDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN Snakeoil
PLACE Fundbags

In a relatively slow race, Snakeoil and C-Moss set a slow pace that grounded most of the challengers. Snakeoil brought the homestretch runthat tired C-Moss out of the place.

namor
11-16-2004, 09:35 AM
Morning Line: Wednesday's Race

Gomango steady as the 'toitle'
Funkybean A has bean?
C-How Theyrun Could squeak one out here
Special Delivery Absolutely positively will finish overnight
I-ransofar Could slip on oil

namor's analysis: Safe havens in a slow race favor the Bean and the mango.

namor
11-16-2004, 06:10 PM
namor wrote:
Morning Line: Tuesday's Race

GyroZero Play it safe here
FramedMe Could show a lot
Checkmate Possible contender
S-cargo Is on a hot streak
InterestPaid Favorable conditions

namor's analysis: Will it be another slow day, or will S-Cargo outrun everybody? InterestPaid and Checkmate could challenge S-cargo.

TUESDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN GyroZero
PLACE NO PLACE

In a strange race, Checkmate, S-Cargo and InterestPaid had a pile-up in the first turn, bringing FramedMe with them. GyroZero went aroundthe pile-up and galloped in for the easy victory.

namor
11-17-2004, 08:53 AM
MORNING LINE: THURSDAY'S RACE

GeezoPeezo Not expecting much
F'd Up Could be up
C Ken Destroy Doubtful contender
Styletto Maybe some speed
Ishotthesheriff Confident entry

namor's pick: F'd Up is due for a win if its a slow race.

namor
11-17-2004, 09:08 AM
I have changed my allocation for tomorrow:


Today: 100% F

Tomorrow: 100% I

namor
11-17-2004, 05:58 PM
namor wrote:

Morning Line: Wednesday's Race

Gomango steady as the 'toitle'
Funkybean A has bean?
C-How Theyrun Could squeak one out here
Special Delivery Absolutely positively will finish overnight
I-ransofar Could slip on oil

namor's analysis: Safe havens in a slow race favor the Bean and the mango.




WEDNESDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN I-ransofar
PLACE Special Delivery
SHOW C-How Theyrun

It was a three horse race. C-How Theyrun jumped out to a quick lead and set a fast pace. I-ransofar came from nowhere to take the win.

namor
11-18-2004, 09:33 AM
Morning Line: Friday's Race

G)Scent of Penny Could surprise here
Fundbags Has been steady
C-Moss Up for the weekend
SnakeOilMay give the slip
Icon Could show here

analysis: Fundbags has been steady, but is this Icon's big race?

namor
11-18-2004, 06:43 PM
namor wrote:
MORNING LINE: THURSDAY'S RACE

GeezoPeezo Not expecting much
F'd Up Could be up
C Ken Destroy Doubtful contender
Styletto Maybe some speed
Ishotthesheriff Confident entry

namor's pick: F'd Up is due for a win if its a slow race.

THURSDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN F'd Up
PLACE C Ken Destroy


C Ken Destroy and Styletto set a bisltering pace early. They both faded in the backstretch as F'd Up came home with the win.

11-19-2004, 06:32 AM
namor wrote:
THURSDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN F'd Up
PLACE C Ken Destroy


C Ken Destroy and Styletto set a bisltering pace early. They both faded in the backstretch as F'd Up came home with the win.


So that's why I made money in F yesterday, because of the nic...................:shock:

namor
11-19-2004, 08:45 AM
Morning Line: Monday's Race

GyroZero Doesn't make cents
FramedMe Not expecting much
Checkmate Could get rooked
S-cargo Fast track favors
InterestPaid Shaky foundation

namor's analysis: S-Cargo is no snail here.2 hours 15 minutes until Post Time! Place your wagers early to avoid being shut out!

namor
11-19-2004, 05:53 PM
namor wrote:
Morning Line: Friday's Race

G)Scent of Penny Could surprise here
Fundbags Has been steady
C-Moss Up for the weekend
SnakeOilMay give the slip
Icon Could show here

analysis: Fundbags has been steady, but is this Icon's big race?

FRIDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN - G)Scent of Penny
NO PLACE OR SHOW

Track conditions did not favor any type of race, and no finishers beyond Scent of Penny.

namor
11-22-2004, 08:59 AM
Morning Line: Tuesday's Race

GomangoFast conditions do not favor
Funkybean Not expecting much
C-How TheyrunCould surprise here
Special Delivery Hope springs
I-ransofar May be up

namor's analysis: Hoping for a fast start and a good finish for Special Delivery.

namor
11-22-2004, 07:07 PM
namor wrote:
Morning Line: Monday's Race

GyroZero Doesn't make cents
FramedMe Not expecting much
Checkmate Could get rooked
S-cargo Fast track favors
InterestPaid Shaky foundation

namor's analysis: S-Cargo is no snail here.2 hours 15 minutes until Post Time! Place your wagers early to avoid being shut out!
MONDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN S-Cargo
PLACE Checkmate

InterestPaid stumbled out of the gate and never recovered. S-Cargo and Checkmate were slow into the first turn, but turned it up in the backstretch, with S-Cargo going away in the homestretch.

namor
11-23-2004, 09:46 AM
Morning Line: Wednesday's Race

Gomango Could show something
Funkybean A turkey of late
C-How Theyrun has the horsepower
Special Delivery Possible contender
I-ransofar Due for a gain?

namor's analysis: C How Theyrun and Special Delivery duke it out. I-ransofar is a dark horse. 1 hour and 14 minutes to Post Time!

namor
11-23-2004, 06:10 PM
namor wrote:
Morning Line: Tuesday's Race

GomangoFast conditions do not favor
Funkybean Not expecting much
C-How TheyrunCould surprise here
Special Delivery Hope springs
I-ransofar May be up

namor's analysis: Hoping for a fast start and a good finish for Special Delivery.

TUESDAY'S RACE RESULT

WIN Special Delivery
PLACE I-ransofar

Two horse race but 'Special' Delivers at the wire.

namor
11-24-2004, 10:31 AM
T-BONE STAKES
Friday November 26
Starts W P S
GyroZero 2 1 1 0
F'd Up 2 1 0 0
C Ken Destroy2 0 1 1
S-Cargo 2 1 0 0
I-shotthesheriff2 1 0 0
Analysis: Anything could happen in the first Stakes race! C-Ken Destroy does not have a win, but could very easily finish ahead here. S-Cargo is hot hot hot, and I-shotthesheriff has been strong. Slow pace will favor F'd Up and GyroZero. 30 minutes to POST TIME! Make your wagers early to avoid being shut out!

namor
11-24-2004, 06:23 PM
namor wrote:
Morning Line: Wednesday's Race

Gomango Could show something
Funkybean A turkey of late
C-How Theyrun has the horsepower
Special Delivery Possible contender
I-ransofar Due for a gain?

namor's analysis: C How Theyrun and Special Delivery duke it out. I-ransofar is a dark horse. 1 hour and 14 minutes to Post Time!

WEDNESDAY'S RESULT

WIN Special Delivery
PLACE C-How Theyrun
SHOW I-ransofar

Special Delivery is just too good right now. Took command early and led throughout. These three will probably duke it out again in one of next week's stakes races.

namor
11-26-2004, 05:13 PM
Morning Line
PRINCESS REBECCA'S CUP
NOVEMBER 29, 2004

STARTS W P S
G)Scent of Penny 3 2 0 0
Fundbags 3 0 2 0
C-How Theyrun 5 0 2 1
Special Delivery 5 3 1 1
I-ransofar 5 2 11

Analysis: The best finishers from the A stablesmeet for this Cup race, a prelude to Wednesday's Championship. Scent of Penny is looking good, anf if the pace is slow, Fundbags can run too. Special Delivery can fly with anybody, and rivals C-How Theyrun and I-ransofar are here to challenge again.

pick: Fundbags in a surprise long shot.

Note: I posted this twice before this morning, but the posts mysteriously 'disappeared.' Luckily, this is for fun only, and no one was waiting to bet on these 'horse's.'

namor
11-26-2004, 06:06 PM
namor wrote:

T-BONE STAKES
Friday November 26
Starts W P S
GyroZero 2 1 1 0
F'd Up 2 1 0 0
C Ken Destroy2 0 1 1
S-Cargo 2 1 0 0
I-shotthesheriff2 1 0 0

Analysis: Anything could happen in the first Stakes race! C-Ken Destroy does not have a win, but could very easily finish ahead here. S-Cargo is hot hot hot, and I-shotthesheriff has been strong. Slow pace will favor F'd Up and GyroZero. 30 minutes to POST TIME! Make your wagers early to avoid being shut out!
T-BONE STAKES RESULT

Order of finish:

WIN I-shotthesheriff
PLACE S-Cargo
SHOWC Ken Destroy
4TH GyroZero
5TH F'd Up

I-shotthesheriff had the strong race from the gate, with only a slight challenge from S-Cargo in the stretch. Those two will move on tothe Sweepstakes Derby on Nov 30.

namor
11-29-2004, 12:05 PM
I switched my allocation to the S Fund for tomorrow's beeswax.

Today: F Fund

Tomorrow: S Fund



Race Update for Princess Rebecca's Cup:

At the break it's I-ransofar with a big jump, Special Delivery and C-HowTheyrun are out early, trailed by Fundbags and Scent of Penny can see them all. Into the first turn, it's I-ransofar in the lead. Fundbags and Scent of Penny are making a push in the stretch, and are trying to run down the leader. . . (continued at 7 PM ET)

Timer
11-29-2004, 01:02 PM
namor wrote:
WIN I-shotthesheriff
PLACE S-Cargo
SHOWC Ken Destroy
4TH GyroZero
5TH F'd Up

You are a clever dude namor.

namor
11-29-2004, 02:16 PM
Thanks Timer.

Iget bored with the usual info out there, so I have to make up my own based on the returns. ;)

namor
11-29-2004, 06:58 PM
namor wrote:

PRINCESS REBECCA'S CUP ENTRIES

STARTS W P S
G)Scent of Penny 3 2 0 0
Fundbags 3 0 2 0
C-How Theyrun 5 0 2 1
Special Delivery 5 3 1 1
I-ransofar 5 2 11
At the break it's I-ransofar with a big jump, Special Delivery and C-HowTheyrun are out early, trailed by Fundbags and Scent of Penny can see them all. Into the first turn, it's I-ransofar in the lead. Fundbags and Scent of Penny are making a push in the stretch, and are trying to run down the leader. . .

the pace begins to slow, perhaps tired by the big lead, and into the far turn, its Special Delivery, one of the hot ones this month,moving up, and down the stretch. . .SD begins an assault on I-ransofar's lead as the rest of the field fades, its I-ransofar at the wire, with Special Delivery a couple lengths back for the place.


RESULTS:

WIN I-ransofar
PLACE Special Delivery
SHOWG)Scent of Penny
4. Fundbags
Last C-How Theyrun

namor
11-29-2004, 07:33 PM
SWEEPSTAKES DERBY
November 30, 2004
Entries: Starts W P S

G) Scent of Penny4 2 01
F) Special Delivery6 3 2 1
C) S-Cargo31 1 0
S) I-shotthesheriff3 2 0 0
I)I-ransofar 6 3 1 1

Analysis: It's anybody's race in this classic championship run of the year. The speed belongstoSpecial Delivery and S-Cargo,while theI entries are too consistent to not be favorites. Scent of Penny could surprise anytime, anywhere.

Pick: S-Cargo

tsptalk
11-29-2004, 10:33 PM
You're really enjoying this aren't you? :D

namor
11-30-2004, 08:18 AM
Tom:

In case this is not a rhetorical question:

I have to jazz it up somehow. My gawd, I think I would go insane if I was a fund manager and had to do this for a living!

This is the last race, then the month long horse racing card is over. Then its back to the same old, same old 'wonder which fund is going to go up' daily routine.

I hope anybody who read alonghad fun with it, because no matter what fund your money was in for November, you had a bet in my racetrack.

I will post my returns charttomorrow.

Good luck in your investments. Hope you have the right horse(s) today. ;)

-namor

namor
11-30-2004, 07:39 PM
namor wrote:

SWEEPSTAKES DERBY

Entries: Starts W P S

G) Scent of Penny4 2 01
F) Special Delivery6 3 2 1
C) S-Cargo31 1 0
S) I-shotthesheriff3 2 0 0
I)I-ransofar 6 3 1 1

SWEEPSTAKES DERBY RESULT

WIN Scent of Penny
PLACE Special Delivery
SHOW I-shotthesheriff
4. S-Cargo
5. I-ransofar


Summary: At the break it was Scent of Penny, followed closely by S-Cargo and I-shotthesheriff, with Special Delivery and I-ransofar trailing into the first turn. They stay that way on a steady pace into the backstretch, and S-Cargo takes the lead! S-Cargo and Scent of Penny do battle into the final turn! Down the stretch they come! It's Scent of Penny, then S-Cargo and Special Delivery, who has finished in the money in each race he's seen, is overtaking a fading S-Cargo to challenge the Penny!

At the wire, and 2004 Derby champion: SCENT OF PENNY!

namor
12-01-2004, 08:43 AM
Here is my chart of activity for the month of November:

Date Fund Bought Sold 10000 G/L BALANCE
1 G 10.69 10.69 (0.00) 10000.00
2 F 10.38 10.39 9.63 10009.63
3 I 14.09 14.22 92.35 10101.98
4 S 13.42 13.57 112.91 10214.89
5 F 10.40 10.35 (49.11) 10165.78
6-9 I 14.48 14.36 (84.25) 10081.53
10-14 S 13.63 13.95 236.69 10318.22
15-16 C 12.59 12.50 (73.76) 10244.46
17 F10.35 10.38 29.69 10274.15
18 I 14.74 14.69 (34.85) 10239.30
19-26 S 13.98 14.14 117.19 10356.49
29 F 10.36 10.33 (29.99) 10326.50
30 S 14.16 14.14* (14.59) 10311.91

*currently holding

Total gain/loss in November: 3.12%

This chart uses a mythical investment amount of $10,000. The date is what happened on that date; the bought is the previous close price, and the sell is the end of that day's price. I used the new balance figure after gain/loss to purchase the next round of shares.

Using $10,000 as a base investment figure makes it easy to apply that number to what your overall fund would have done by multiplying. For instance, if you have $45,000 in your account, just multiply the total earned by 4.5. It also makes it easier to calculate the total percentage gain/loss.

I will post my 90 day compounded chart tomorrow. Good luck to you in your investments.

namor
12-01-2004, 10:56 AM
With a Barreras-type flurry, I plan an aggressive December.

Changing my allocation. . .

Today: 100%S fund

Tomorrow: 100% I Fund

namor
12-02-2004, 09:05 AM
COMPOUNDED CHART:

SEPTEMBER
Date Fund Bought Sold Gain/Loss Balance
1 I 13.17 13.20 22.78 10022.78
2 F 10.30 10.27 (29.19) 9993.59
3 S 12.71 12.65 (47.18) 9946.41
7-9 F 10.23 10.28 48.61 9995.02
10 I 13.24 13.38 105.69 10100.71
13 S12.84 12.91 55.07 10155.78
14-20 F 10.30 10.35 49.29 10205.07
21 I 13.33 13.56 176.08 10381.15
22 F 10.35 10.37 20.06 10401.21
23-24 S 12.84 12.86 16.20 10417.41
27-28I 13.32 13.30 (15.64) 10401.77
29 F 10.36 10.33 (30.12)10371.65
30 C 11.82 11.82 0.00 10371.65

OCTOBER
1-3 S 12.98 13.18 159.81 10531.46
4-6 F 10.29 10.29 (0.00) 10531.46
7-14 S 13.31 12.91 (316.50) 10214.96
15-18 I 13.62 13.59 (22.50) 10192.46
19 C 11.82 11.71 (94.85) 10097.61
20 S 12.87 12.92 39.23 10136.84
21 G 10.59 10.59 (0.00) 10136.84
22-24 F 10.40 10.41 9.75 10146.59
25-26 C 11.63 11.79 139.59 10286.18
27 I 13.71 13.85 105.04 10391.22
28 F 10.38 10.38 (0.00) 10391.22
29 C 11.97 12.00 26.04 10417.26

NOVEMBER
1 G 10.69 10.69 (0.00) 10417.26
2 F 10.38 10.39 10.04 10427.30
3 I 14.09 14.22 96.21 10523.51
4 S 13.42 13.57 117.62 10641.13
5 F 10.40 10.35 (51.16) 10589.97
6-9 I 14.48 14.36 (87.76) 10502.21
10-14 S 13.63 13.95 246.57 10748.78
15-16 C 12.59 12.50 (76.83) 10671.95
17 F 10.35 10.38 30.93 10702.88
18 I 14.74 14.69 (36.31) 10666.57
19-26 S 13.98 14.14 122.08 10788.65
29 F 10.36 10.33 (31.24) 10757.41
30 S 14.16 14.14 (15.19) 10742.22


These figures are nothing new, the charts are the individual monthly charts that I have posted in the past. But this chart shows how your returns work for you with compounding. Conversely, your losses are higher too than if you had just started out with 10,000 each month, instead of rolling over your gains/losses.

Good luck to you in your investments.

12-02-2004, 09:08 AM
namor wrote:


These figures are nothing new, the charts are the individual monthly charts that I have posted in the past. But this chart shows how your returns work for you with compounding. Conversely, your losses are higher too than if you had just started out with 10,000 each month, instead of rolling over your gains/losses.

Good luck to you in your investments.


Which is why I now post my results two ways. :)

namor
12-02-2004, 09:20 AM
I am switching my allocation again.

Today: 100% I Fund

Tomorrow: 100% C fund

namor
12-03-2004, 10:40 AM
I am changing my allocation for Monday.

Forgot about posting daily returns:

Dec 1 Sold S Fund @ 14.33 ($.17 per share gain)

Dec 2 Sold I Fund@ 15.00 ($.01 per share loss)

Today: C Fund

Monday: I Fund

namor
12-07-2004, 08:37 AM
Sold I fund yesterday for a loss of $.03 per share.

Jumping back into I for tomorrow.

Today: S Fund

Tomorrow: I Fund

namor
12-07-2004, 11:02 AM
namor wrote:
Sold I fund yesterday for a loss of $.03 per share.

Jumping back into I for tomorrow.

Today: S Fund

Tomorrow: I Fund



I have cancelled this request. I will remain in S Fund for tomorrow.

Today: 100% S Fund

Tomorrow: 100% S fund

Dakota
12-07-2004, 11:13 AM
namor wrote:
Sold I fund yesterday for a loss of $.03 per share.

Jumping back into I for tomorrow.

Today: S Fund

Tomorrow: I Fund
you're kind of like me change like the oklahoma wind are you doing good? I hope so. just thought I'd say hi and good luck

Dakota
12-07-2004, 11:34 AM
hey Namor

what's the odds on my sooners taking USC

namor
12-07-2004, 12:21 PM
Dakota wrote:
hey Namor

what's the odds on my sooners taking USC

I haven't seen any odds out of Vegas for this bowl gameyet.

My personal opinion is that while USC will be favored because of thier #1 ranking all season, the Sooners have a real good chance to make this a contest. The Trojans have turned back every opponent they have faced, but they were lucky to win the UCLA game and Cal gave them a good run also.

OK is in a little different position than they were last year. They are not traveling to thehome territoryof their opponent to play this game (like last yearvs. LSU in New Orleans) and SC is not playing practically at home again (like last year's Rose Bowl) Also, OK is not coming off an upset in the Big 12 championship.


Good luck in your investments. That goes for Bowl games too ;)

tsptalk
12-11-2004, 10:12 PM
Dakota wrote:
what's the odds on my sooners taking USC

USC - 3 (points), -150 on the money line

namor
12-13-2004, 09:42 AM
tsptalk wrote:
Dakota wrote:
what's the odds on my sooners taking USC

USC - 3 (points), -150 on the money line
I was off the lineby a point. I had sent Dakota a private messagetelling him thatthe lineprobably would be USC by 4. Take OK and the points!

I am switching my 100% allocation to I Fund. Currently in S Fund.

vectorman
12-13-2004, 09:56 AM
I wish I did that friday, but Ididn't have the boldness to pull the trigger. I was hoping for a bottom, but didn't have the experience to follow through. Good luck!!!

Rod
12-13-2004, 10:35 AM
Hey, the Naz and S&P are neck-n-neck at .21... where's yer calls at???

Let's get-a-race'n!!!:dude:

namor
12-13-2004, 10:48 AM
Rod wrote:
Hey, the Naz and S&P are neck-n-neck at .21... where's yer calls at???

Let's get-a-race'n!!!:dude:



Rod:

I only did the horse racing analogy for November. HOWEVER, I may do a variation on the racing thing in January. This time tho, I would use horses that represent members allocations. That could make things interesting. I am still working on it.

Thanks for the replies. Good luck in your investments.

Rod
12-13-2004, 02:33 PM
Rod wrote:
Hey, the Naz and S&P are neck-n-neck at .21... where's yer calls at???

Let's get-a-race'n!!!:dude:

They are NOW neck-n-neck @ .81%!:D

What an exciting race it is, folks!:dude:

Hey namor, I noticed you posted, but it's stuck in "the matrix". That's been happening a lot lately.:P

Rod
12-13-2004, 02:35 PM
namor wrote:
Rod:

I only did the horse racing analogy for November. HOWEVER, I may do a variation on the racing thing in January. This time tho, I would use horses that represent members allocations. That could make things interesting. I am still working on it.

Thanks for the replies. Good luck in your investments.

That's funny, my post knocked your's out of "the matrix".:D

Gotcha, Brother.:^

Safetyguy
12-13-2004, 03:21 PM
namor wrote:
Rod:

I only did the horse racing analogy for November. HOWEVER, I may do a variation on the racing thing in January. This time tho, I would use horses that represent members allocations. That could make things interesting. I am still working on it.

Thanks for the replies. Good luck in your investments.

How about a Blackjack analogy for January? You could give your hand (the 100% call) and give the dealer's down card. For instance, if you are sure you made a good move, you could say you have two Kings and the dealer's down card is a Six of Clubs.

Just a thought...

Rod
12-13-2004, 03:34 PM
How about UNO for us simpler folk???:D

"The I Fund has just made the Sdraw 4!":P

Safetyguy
12-13-2004, 08:47 PM
Rod wrote:
How about UNO for us simpler folk???:D

"The I Fund has just made the Sdraw 4!":P









You may be on to something except that namor is a betting sort -- playing the TSP like he'sa Vegas high roller.If he did want to go withclassic kid's games forthe monthly analogy, how about a TSP version of "Chutes and Ladders"? Here's hoping for some more "ladders" in December to pay back for all the "Chutes" from the summer!!

namor
12-14-2004, 08:37 AM
Sold S Fund at COB yesterday, it finally came back. Made .03 per share.

I am switching to 100% C fund for tomorrow.

Today: 100% I fund

Tomorrow: 100% C Fund

namor
12-23-2004, 09:27 AM
Well, since I can't sit on the sidelines without action, I am switching to 100% I fund for the long weekend!

Today: 100%S Fund

Tomorrow/Monday: 100% I Fund

Merry Christmas and good luck in your investments!

namor
12-23-2004, 10:20 AM
smine wrote in my Vegas Boxer Account:

Why? I have 50% I and need a good reason to jump in with both feet (other than just plan risky!) International up and running this Friday, and doing well.:ooYou agree?



Oil dropped, Dollar is low, US Markets are green. That's good enough for me. If it happens, great, if not, well, Merry Christmas. I'll only be there til COB MOnday.

namor
12-27-2004, 08:23 AM
Back to the C Fund!

Today: 100% I Fund

Tomorrow: 100% C Fund

namor
12-27-2004, 11:01 AM
LAST MINUTE SWITCH!

I am going to go into S fund instead of C fund.



Today: 100% I Fund

Tomorrow: 100% S Fund

Safetyguy
12-27-2004, 02:56 PM
namor wrote:
LAST MINUTE SWITCH!

I am going to go into S fund instead of C fund.


Today: 100% I Fund

Tomorrow: 100% S Fund

You may have the best move of the day with this one...

namor
12-27-2004, 03:53 PM
Thanks for your comment SafetyGuy. Only time will tell on this one.

Good luck to you in your investments.

FundSurfer
12-28-2004, 09:40 PM
Nice call Namor!

namor
12-28-2004, 10:20 PM
Thanks Fundsurfer.

All gamblers will hita good pot every once in a while.

Looking over the returns since Sep 1, be darned if buying thenholding S or I all that time was not the play of the year. But gawd, who could stand riding that roller coaster for that time?!I mean, I do risky stuff but that's really risky!

Good luck in your investments.

namor
12-29-2004, 08:31 AM
2005:

This site has been flagged by Websense asbeing a non-work related website visit. Although I can post on lunch hours, I feel Ihave no choice butto abandon my Vegas Boxer account.

I'll try to post any moves in the next couple daysan early lunch break, but I would lose the effect and don't want to look like a Monday Morning QB. Maybe there is another way I can post stuff during the evening hours, perhaps some schtick based on the daily returns.

I'll post my Decembergain/loss when the month is over, plus a compounded chart since I began charting inSeptember.

It's been a blast, and if you were reading my madness, I hope you enjoyed it.

-namor

Spaf
12-29-2004, 10:11 AM
namor wrote:
2005:

This site has been flagged by Websense asbeing a non-work related website visit.

Although I can post on lunch hours, I feel Ihave no choice butto abandon my Vegas Boxer account.

I'll try to post any moves in the next couple daysan early lunch break,

It's been a blast, and if you were reading my madness, I hope you enjoyed it.

-namor

namor.... enjoyed :)! Please save or better yet post the names you gave the TSP funds. They sort of need to be renamed from time to time.

Why can't you use the computer during your break times at work?? Our department doesn't mind so long as we don't abuse it. It seems as though the government has all sorts of different policies regarding computer usage.

Who is "Websense"?

namor
12-29-2004, 06:22 PM
Hey Spaf:

I can certainly post those racehorse names for the funds I made up, but if theold info doesn't get purged, it should remain here.

Websense: a software that blocks websites that the administrator deems as non-work sites.

I am in a field office and our HQ has the IT personnel who can check onvisited web sites and judge whether they should be accessed from a government computer. If they don't deem it necessary, they use Websense to blockthe site. Apparently, each office has a limit on the bandwidth we can use. I was once told by IT: "Your office is exceeding your allotted bandwidth" as a reason for a slow computer.

I am glad you enjoyed my posts. They weren't very informative and I apologize for that. There is no 'system' that truly works in gambling. Too much information could kill your bet.

I think I am going to go to the C Fund for New Year's Eve. Currently: 100% S Fund.

(this sucks to have to post allocations this 'early' I can tell you that right now)

tsptalk
12-29-2004, 11:24 PM
namor wrote:
Looking over the returns since Sep 1, be darned if buying thenholding S or I all that time was not the play of the year. But gawd, who could stand riding that roller coaster for that time?!I mean, I do risky stuff but that's really risky!
I get emails all the time asking"Why didn't you just stay in the XXX fund? You would have done better." :shock: The thing they don't understand is thatwe have to make our decisions before the results. Seems simple after the fact.

So namor, who do you like in yesterday's race? :D

tsptalk
12-29-2004, 11:27 PM
namor wrote:
This site has been flagged by Websense asbeing a non-work related website visit. Although I can post on lunch hours, I feel Ihave no choice butto abandon my Vegas Boxer account.
crappo :@

namor
12-29-2004, 11:52 PM
tsptalk wrote:
I get emails all the time asking"Why didn't you just stay in the XXX fund? You would have done better." :shock: The thing they don't understand is thatwe have to make our decisions before the results. Seems simple after the fact.

So namor, who do you like in yesterday's race? :D
Tom:

You would get those emails because you own this site and have center stage for posting your thoughts. A lot of your readers are going to hold you responsible if they lose ANY money on your predictions. I know, I get the same thing from the small amount of accounts that I manage. It seems if you dispense advice, you had better be right 100% of the time or youcan expect email. My mother called me once after reading a 4 day old paper that had a story about stocks being down, asking: "Did I lose money on that?"

Don't forget about your audience. All internet. In today's internet environment, people are quick to point out mistakes, especially if hits their pocketbooks.

Remember people, the ultimate power to make decisions on your retirement account(s) lies with you. Don't blame anyone else but yourself if you made a change and it loses money. You might have made a change on someone else's advice, but in the end, you did not really have to take that advice. There is not a single person amongst us who hasn't experienced that. Just hope that your future changes are the right changes, and you come out ahead in the end. I'll guarantee you that if youhave switched out of F or G Funds after visiting this website, than you are AHEADof 95% of all government workers who have TSP. Because that's how many just sit in G Fund year after year.

Happy New Year.

12-30-2004, 06:31 AM
Bravo, well said Namor:^.

namor
12-30-2004, 05:28 PM
namor wrote:

I think I am going to go to the C Fund for New Year's Eve. Currently: 100% S Fund.

(this sucks to have to post allocations this 'early' I can tell you that right now)



I did make this change today. Unfortunately, I am now blocked at work so I couldn't come in here before 11 AM Central time and let everyone know. Sorry about that. If anybody is tracking me,you can just make it effective a day later. Ican't stand Monday Morning QBing myself. Hindsight is 20/20.

Today: S

Tomorrow: C

namor
01-03-2005, 09:28 PM
December 2004 OFFICIAL RETURN FOR NAMOR

Date Fund OPEN CLOSE 10000 G/L BALANCE
1 S 14.14 14.33 134.37 10134.37
2 I 15.01 15.00 (6.75) 10127.62
3 C 12.67 12.67 (0.00) 10113.32
6 I 15.09 15.06 (20.13) 10093.19
7 S 14.30 14.33 21.13 10114.32
14 I 14.87 14.90 20.41 10134.73
15 C 12.81 12.81 0.00 10134.73
17 S 14.44 14.62 126.33 10261.06
24 I 15.26 15.41 100.86 10361.92
28-31 S 14.54 14.73 135.40 10497.38

December gain/loss: 4.97%

Here is my chart of loss/gains for December 2004.
I always use a mythical $10,000 starting balance.
The Fund is obvious: G, F, C, S, or I funds.
The OPEN is the share price at COB the previous day.
The CLOSE is the share price at the end of that day's trading.
The 10000 G/L is the gain/loss using the previous day's COB BALANCE to purchase share's at the same day closing price.
The BALANCE is what you own at the end of that day's trading after you add/subtract the day's gain/loss.
Feel free to check my math at any time; that is why I provide the criteria to do so.

Sources:
'Funds' and 'dates bought' canONLY be verified in "namor's Vegas Boxer Account", the AUTHORITY on my TSP moves. Unfortunately, the "namor's Vegas Boxer Account" is officially closed. At least temporarily.

TSP prices can be verified at tsp.gov

I will post my compounded chart since Septemberwhen I return on Thursday from a day trip.

Good luck in your investments.

namor
01-04-2005, 08:03 AM
OOPS! Slight mistake in my chart. Here is the corrected chart:

Date Fund OPEN CLOSE 10000 G/L BALANCE
1 S 14.14 14.33 134.37 10134.37
2 I 15.01 15.00 (6.75) 10127.62
3 C 12.67 12.67 (0.00) 10127.62
6 I 15.09 15.06 (20.13) 10093.19
7 S 14.30 14.33 21.17 10114.36
14 I 14.87 14.90 20.41 10134.77
15 C 12.81 12.81 0.00 10134.77
17 S 14.44 14.62 126.33 10261.10
24 I 15.26 15.41 100.86 10361.96
28-31 S 14.54 14.73 135.40 10497.36

FundSurfer
01-04-2005, 10:01 AM
I can see I'm going to have to change the way I do my Tally. My calcs and yours differ for the same reason that Rod and mine's do. I started on 12/1. You started on 11/30 (which is the start price for 12/1). I see the error of my ways. The start price for 12/1 (thus the close price for 11/30) is better for calculating the monthly return than using the close price of 12/1, which doesn't count gain on 12/1. Thus, thanks Namor (and Rod) for setting me straight.

namor
01-24-2005, 09:06 AM
I AM BACK!

After a short hiatus in which my access to this site at work was blocked, I have re-gained access!

Cigar anyone? Smoke em if you got em!


Here is my appeal to anyone else that experiences this unfortunate form of micromanagement:

Dear Administrator:

Recently, tsptalk.com was blocked after being identifed as a chat website by the web blocking software. I am presenting information why tsptalk.com should not be blocked. Although there are similarities to entertainment message boards, this website is actually an informational site for those who invest a percentage of Federal Government pay into the Thrift Savings Plan.

Because the website's function is to inform those who have invested in Thrift Savings Plan, it is not unlike websites that inform government employees about other benefits, such as Health Benefits Plans. Recently, tsp.gov enabled those with TSP accounts to change allocations on a daily basis rather than a monthly basis.

I am requesting that this website be taken off the list of blocked websites so that our agency's TSP investors can have the best information available when making changes to our investments.

Thank you for your consideration.

namor
01-24-2005, 09:08 AM
I will be in the I Fund effective with COB today.



Tomorrow the I Fund.

tsptalk
01-24-2005, 09:25 AM
namor wrote:
I AM BACK!

After a short hiatus in which my access to this site at work was blocked, I have re-gained access!

Cigar anyone? Smoke em if you got em!

Congratulations namor! Nice job!

Maybe you can cut-n-paste this into the "Report Problems" forum for others to see if they have problems?

Thanks!
Tom

namor
01-24-2005, 09:54 AM
Done.

Good luck in your investments.

namor
01-26-2005, 09:47 AM
I am changing my allocation to C fund.

Today: 100% I Fund

Tomorrow: 100% C fund

Rod
01-26-2005, 11:36 AM
Great call for being 100(I) today!:^ You will be enjoying some nice gains which will hopefully make up for any JAN losses.

God Bless:)

namor
01-27-2005, 10:57 AM
I am changing my allocation:

Today: 100% C

Tomorrow: 100% F

namor
01-28-2005, 09:08 AM
I am moving into the C Fund for the last day of the month.

Today: F Fund

Monday: C Fund

Good luck in your investments.

vectorman
01-31-2005, 10:03 AM
What do you think Namor? What does the roll of the dice say for tomorrow? Good luck!!! :^

namor
01-31-2005, 10:47 AM
I am going to playfor a roll of S fund!

100% S Fund allocation change!

Place your bets!



Today: 100% C Fund

Tomorrow: 100% S Fund



Good luck in your investments.

01-31-2005, 08:57 PM
Does "namor" come from the comic book? "Namor the submariner" or something like that? I think they gonna make a movie of it.

Rolo
01-31-2005, 10:10 PM
I thought it was "roman", backwards..?

02-01-2005, 05:20 AM
Rolo wrote:
I thought it was "roman", backwards..?
Isn't Rolo short for Colorado backwards? *LOL* You see, the fact that you think namor thinks as you do merely reflects on your own thoughts. ;) BTW, don't pick the Columbines. It's a crime.

namor
02-01-2005, 07:15 AM
Very good, tsptorture.

You get an A+

Nobody spells their names backwards online, do they?

That's PRINCE NAMOR, The Sub-Mariner, ruler of ALL ATLANTIS(for you neophytes out there)



Good luck in your investments.

namor
02-01-2005, 08:30 AM
I am sure if I think about this move long enough, I'll switch it to F before 11 am.

But for now, gamblers like a sure thing and I'm hoping the penny doesn't come in a day early.

Today: 100% S Fund

Tomorrow: 100% G Fund



Good luck in your investments.

Timer
02-01-2005, 08:57 AM
saraho wrote:
BTW, don't pick the Columbines. It's a crime.

CO's state flower.

namor
02-02-2005, 08:29 AM
I have this weird feeling about the F fund doing well tomorrow. Even if it doesn't, how low can it go?

Today: 100% G fund GO PENNY!

Tomorrow: 100% F Fund BUY BONDS!



Good luck in your investments.

namor
02-03-2005, 08:50 AM
I am jumping into the cold water like a polar bear. Back to the S fund for an anticipatedFriday mini-rally.

Today: 100% F Fund

Tomorrow: 100% S Fund

namor
02-04-2005, 09:14 AM
I am going to spend the first part ofnext week in the I fund. Watch for the falling dollar.

Today: 100% SFund

Monday: 100% I Fund

namor
02-07-2005, 09:35 AM
I am going to play it safe for a couple days.

Today: 100% I Fund

Tomorrow: 100% G Fund

namor
02-10-2005, 09:51 AM
After making the market miss me with a few shots, it's my turn.This Vegas Boxeris swinging back.

Today 100% G fund.

Tomorrow: 100% S Fund.

namor
02-11-2005, 10:18 AM
C'mon Happy Hour!

GO GREEN!

Going to hope this small comeback holds, then seeing what happens Monday.

Today: 100% S Fund

Monday: 100% F Fund

Ragin Cajun
02-11-2005, 10:23 AM
You're in the zone, Namor! Keep it up!. :^

Rajun Cajun

cowboy
02-11-2005, 10:43 AM
Just wondering if your account updated namor. Mine did not with yesterdays move and has big yellow box stating technical difficulties and did not update my account.

namor
02-11-2005, 11:02 AM
Did you get the email confirmation last night, cowboy?

They'll update your fund after they fix whatever they are doing, but the email confirmation tells you it was done. I received mine about 7 PM on the night of the transfer.

cowboy
02-11-2005, 11:05 AM
I will have to check to see if I received it. I did mine shortly after you so hopefully I did. Thanks Namor!

cowboy
02-11-2005, 01:21 PM
Namor went into account fully 100% S today!!!! Ride that wild thing!!!!!!!!!!! Gone to F for Monday!!

Show-me
02-11-2005, 01:30 PM
Way to go guy's! I did the same but think the rally may extend into Mon. so I left 50% in. GO, GO, GO, GREEN. I'll get burned, I'm over due.:l

cowboy
02-11-2005, 01:40 PM
Only Monday will tell!!

namor
02-11-2005, 01:57 PM
Its definitely a solid right-left combo and

DOWN GOES FRAZIER! LOL



I knew it would bea fun ride. I play all or nothing, so I had to hope for the best and then pull back. Good call guys!

namor
02-14-2005, 09:28 AM
I have this strange feeling of deja vu. Smokin Joe is back on his feet.

I am going to go G fund for at least a couple days and see what transpires, oil still making things slippery.

Today: 100% F Fund.

Tomorrow: 100% G Fund.

namor
02-16-2005, 10:10 AM
The cancellation of the NHL season can only be good for the economy. In view of that, I must tarry in the G Fund no longer.

Punching my way out of this paper bag:


Today: 100% G Fund.

Tomorrow: 100% C Fund.

namor
02-18-2005, 09:16 AM
Update from Daytona:

I am hoping for a bounce today from yesterday's crash on turn 1. The car is still in the race, and we're going to go I fund for the long holiday weekend. This could backfire, as there may be an oil slick on the track in turn 1from my crash. It's an unfortunate thing for the Pair-o-Dice casino car.

Today: 100% C fund

Monday/Tuesday: 100% I Fund

namor
02-25-2005, 09:36 AM
I am pulling out of the I. I am starting a new job with another agency on Monday. I'll find out then if I can access this site togive transfer info. If not, I'll email it to a tracker.

Today: 100% I fund.

Monday: 100% F Fund.



Good luck in your investments.

namor
03-02-2005, 10:02 AM
Today 100% F

Tomorrow: 100% I



Don't know why. A feeling.

namor
03-04-2005, 06:13 AM
I was able to start posting again on Januaury 24, 2005.
So here is my return from that time until the end of January.
Since Monday Morning QBing is not allowed, only those who
receive my tips know how I did from January 1-24.

JANUARY 25-312005
Date Fund OPEN CLOSE 10000 G/L BALANCE
10000.00
25 I 15.03 15.15 79.84 10079.84
27 C 12.52 12.49 (24.15) 10055.69
28 F 10.46 10.48 19.23 10074.92
31 C 12.49 12.60 88.73 10163.65

January 25-31 return: 1.637%

I always use a mythical $10,000 starting balance, just to make the calculated return easier.
The Fund is obvious: G, F, C, S, or I funds.
The OPEN is the share price at COB the previous day.
The CLOSE is the share price at the end of that day's trading.
The 10000 G/L is the gain/loss using the previous day's COB BALANCE to purchase share's at the same day closing price.
The BALANCE is what you own at the end of that day's trading after you add/subtract the day's gain/loss.
Feel free to check my math at any time; that is why I provide the criteria to do so.

Sources:
'Funds' and 'dates bought' can ONLY be verified in "namor's Vegas Boxer Account", the AUTHORITY on my TSP moves.

TSP prices can be verified at tsp.gov

Good luck in your investments.

namor
03-04-2005, 06:24 AM
My official return for
FEBRUARY 2005

Date Fund OPEN CLOSE 10000 G/L BALANCE
1 S 14.23 14.32 77.30 10077.30
2 G 10.72 10.72 (0.00) 10077.30
3 F 10.49 10.48 (9.61) 10067.69
4 S 14.36 14.53 119.19 10186.88
7 I 15.33 15.30 (19.93) 10166.95
8 G 10.73 10.73 (0.00) 10166.95
11 S 14.38 14.53 106.05 10273.90
14 F 10.52 10.52 (0.00) 10273.90
15 G 10.74 10.74 (0.00) 10273.90
17 C 12.93 12.83 (79.46) 10194.44
21 I 15.65 15.82 110.74 10305.18
28 F 10.45 10.42 (29.58) 10275.60

February 2005 return: 2.756%

I always use a mythical $10,000 starting balance, just to make the calculated return easier.
The Fund is obvious: G, F, C, S, or I funds.
The OPEN is the share price at COB the previous day.
The CLOSE is the share price at the end of that day's trading.
The 10000 G/L is the gain/loss using the previous day's COB BALANCE to purchase share's at the same day closing price.
The BALANCE is what you own at the end of that day's trading after you add/subtract the day's gain/loss.
Feel free to check my math at any time; that is why I provide the criteria to do so.

Sources:
'Funds' and 'dates bought' can ONLY be verified in "namor's Vegas Boxer Account", the AUTHORITY on my TSP moves.

TSP prices can be verified at tsp.gov

Good luck in your investments.

namor
03-04-2005, 10:54 AM
Yesterday's roller coaster made me nervous.

Darn it all I am missing a rally but the S looks lagged.

I'll spend the first part of the week in S.

Today: 100% F Fund
Monday 100% S Fund

namor
03-08-2005, 10:05 AM
If I funddrops two days in a row, I have to buy.

Today: 100% S Fund
Tomorrow: 100% I fund

MacKenzieiii
03-08-2005, 10:13 AM
namor wrote:
If I funddrops two days in a row, I have to buy.

Today: 100% S Fund
Tomorrow: 100% I fund
Drops 2 days in a row? Is I dropping? I see the "iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA)" up .30% right now. (Yes I know the I fund doesn't always track this that well. But I also see the dollar dropping so seems like today is likely an up day for I fund.

namor
03-08-2005, 12:03 PM
I am not sure if the I is dropping or not. I'm just taking a chance. Although the dollar is dropping, the markets seem down. It's a crap shoot.

Cmon shooter, roll that point!

namor
03-09-2005, 09:16 AM
I am going to buy the S fund at COB, if only for the bargain rate (I hope)

Today: 100% I fund
Tomorrow: 100% S Fund

cowboy
03-09-2005, 09:44 AM
I think you made a good move buddy. I fund looks about ready to drop to me.BesidesS needs fuel.

namor
03-09-2005, 09:54 AM
I am watching this closely and may cancel it if the S comes back before 11 AM CT.

cowboy
03-09-2005, 10:17 PM
namor wrote:
I am watching this closely and may cancel it if the S comes back before 11 AM CT.
You stayed with the move didn't you Namor?

namor
03-10-2005, 06:08 AM
Yes, Cowboy,I am vested in the S fund today.

If I had cancelled, I would have posted the cancellation.

I am hoping for a bit of a bounce today, and then Intel gives a good report so Friday will be a money maker.

Good luck in your investments.

namor
03-11-2005, 09:09 AM
I am retreating to the safety of the I fund.

Today: 100%S Fund
Monday: 100% I Fund

namor
03-17-2005, 09:33 AM
This is madness. . . MARCH Madness.

Good games, good moods, I think it will be GREEN!

Today: I Fund

Tomorrow: S Fund

namor
03-21-2005, 10:01 AM
I've taken my licks and am stopping this fight.
I will have to train hard and come out smokin at the next opportunity. Manager: the towel please!

Today: 100% S
Tomorrow: 100% G

namor
03-23-2005, 09:49 AM
I am hoping for a bounce, but this may be a come out smokin opportunity.

Back into the ring to go toe to toe with the market.

DING DING! Round 1!

Today: 100% G Fund

Tomorrow: 100%S Fund

Good luck in your investments!

namor
03-24-2005, 09:28 AM
Quoting U2: "I will follow. . ."
Think so? Hope so. Gotta have action tho.
Punchin out.

Today: 100% S Fund
Tomorrow: 100% I Fund

namor
03-28-2005, 09:42 AM
Jumping back to the S fund.

Today: 100% I fund

Tomorrow: 100% S Fund

Good luck in your investments.

namor
03-29-2005, 09:49 AM
Hoping the green stays green and then banking it.

Today: 100% S Fund

Tomorrow:100% F Fund

namor
04-04-2005, 09:52 AM
Hoping for a bounce like a March Madness basketball.

Today: 100% F

Tomorrow: 100%S

namor
04-06-2005, 09:51 AM
AYE, captain! There's money on the horizon! Hoist high the Jolly Roger!

Going to steal some I fund income, I hope ;)

Today: 100% S Fund
Tomorrow: 100% I fund

CSI
04-06-2005, 10:04 AM
With US stocks rallying today and the dollar ready for a retreat, maybe the overseas markets will be up tomorrow and the dollar down. A double up for the I fund captain.

:!

namor
04-07-2005, 06:36 AM
March 2005
Date Fund OPEN CLOSE G/L BALANCE
1 F 10.42 10.42 (0.00) 10000.00
3 I 15.79 15.81 12.66 10012.66
4 F 10.42 10.45 28.83 10041.49
7 S 14.75 14.70 (34.04) 10007.45
9 I 16.06 16.04 (12.46) 9994.99
10 S 14.54 14.47 (48.12) 9946.87
14 I 16.04 15.86 (111.62) 9835.25
18 S14.44 14.38 (54.49) 9780.76
21 G 10.78 10.79 9.07 9789.83
24 S 14.16 14.21 34.57 9824.40
25 I 15.45 15.41 (25.44) 9798.96
29 S 14.19 14.02 (117.39) 9681.57
30-31 F 10.33 10.37 37.49 9719.06

Total gain/loss in March: (2.81%)

This chart uses a mythical investment amount of $10,000. The date is what happened on that date; the bought is the previous close price, and the sell is the end of that day's price. All figures are rounded to the nearest penny. I used the new balance figure after gain/loss to purchase the next round of shares. Moves are posted in namor's Vegas Boxer account, the authority on moves made by me.

Using $10,000 as a base investment figure makes it easy to apply that number to what your overall fund would have done by multiplying. For instance, if you have $45,000 in your account, just multiply the total earned by 4.5. It also makes it easier to calculate the total percentage gain/loss.

What a crappy month that was. Thank Gawd it's behind me.

namor
04-07-2005, 09:48 AM
Switchin to Glide. . .

Hoping the Penny doesn't pay today.

Today: 100% I Fund

Tomorrow: 100% G Fund

namor
04-08-2005, 09:53 AM
I think the markets will be F'd on Monday.

Today: 100% G
Monday: 100% F

namor
04-11-2005, 09:58 AM
Its raining and Monday. No wonder the market is down. ;)

Today: F Fund
Tomorrow: S Fund

namor
04-13-2005, 09:32 AM
Dollars getting weaker! Aye aye sir!

Today: S fund

Tomorrow: I fund

cowboy
04-13-2005, 10:07 AM
namor wrote:
Dollars getting weaker! Aye aye sir!

Today: S fund

Tomorrow: I fund
Interesting Namor! You thinking the same as I amthat S may play the same trick it did yesterday. Really a tough play but could happen.

namor
04-25-2005, 10:56 AM
I am still in I Fund, for you trackers out there, which is strange for me. I want my money back. I haven't quit posting.

namor
04-27-2005, 09:38 AM
Enough of this palaber! I has not been my friend on this run. Switching to S for a few days, maybe only one.



Today:I fund

Tomorrow:S fund

namor
05-02-2005, 09:52 AM
Fed meeting scares me in these choppy seas

Today S Fund

Tomorrow F Fund

namor
05-04-2005, 10:51 AM
Dollar down. I am switching to the I fund. I YAM WHO I YAM!

Today: F Fund
Tomorrow: I fund

TSP GO! (OOPS, not my line!) Sorry, Tspgo! ;)

namor
05-05-2005, 09:49 AM
I am sure nobody remembers this Dustin Hoffman movie reference: Is it saFe?

Today: I Fund
Tomorrow: F Fund

Birchtree
05-05-2005, 08:07 PM
Was it in the Marathon Man movie?

namor
05-06-2005, 09:45 AM
BINGO!

Very good!

Kudos to you, Birchtree!

namor
05-06-2005, 10:53 AM
oh say can you C?



Today: F Fund

Monday: C fund

namor
05-18-2005, 08:39 PM
namor wrote:
C spot run. Run spot run.


Today: C fund

Namor not making a TSP Fund change for 12 days!

NEW LEAGUE RECORD!

Still hanging in the C but by no means am I joining the forces of the buy and holders. There IS a method to this madness.

Sell at the S&P 500 1200 point. That's my strategy. It's just taking a little longer than I thought.

Good luck in your investments!

namor
05-27-2005, 10:35 AM
Getting the F out!

have a nice long weekend everybody!

Today: C Fund

Tuesday: F Fund

namor
06-01-2005, 09:35 AM
I am hoping the I does a rapid rise for a few days.

Hang on to your hats!

Today: 100% F Fund

Tomorrow: 100% I Fund

namor
06-02-2005, 10:06 AM
C how they run!

Today: I fund

Tomorrow: C Fund

namor
06-03-2005, 10:09 AM
"It's fun until somebody loses an I"

Today: C fund.

Monday: I Fund

namor
06-06-2005, 10:26 AM
Hoping for a bounce!

Today: 100% I fund

Tomorrow: 100%S Fund

namor
06-09-2005, 10:48 AM
Go Go S Car go! Don't be a snail!

Ok that was real bad. Thinking the market is due to F up for a few weeks.

Today: S Fund
Tomorrow: F Fund

Good luck in your investments.

namor
06-13-2005, 09:02 AM
I'm putting my PASS bet down. Roll them bones!

Today: F Fund
Tomorrow: S Fund

namor
06-15-2005, 08:26 AM
I am hoping for a big day today: I hope the reports are good.

But I am also cautious, and after today, no matter what what happens I am going to wait in the G for the penny.

Good luck to all. The green flag is up!

Today: 100% S
Tomorrow: 100% G

mlk_man
06-15-2005, 08:38 AM
Nice moves this week namor! Keep it up!

M_M

namor
06-20-2005, 08:24 AM
Picked up the penny, and I cannot tarry here any longer. Going to sit in F and see how this week shapes up.

Today: G Fund
Tomorrow: F Fund

06-20-2005, 08:28 AM
How is the sports betting going?

I do sports betting on NFL games.

Baseball with the long season is pointless - IMHO. You never know when they are going to rest a bunch of guys for a game.

namor
06-21-2005, 08:48 AM
Actually, you can make a lot of money on baseball if you crunch the numbers enough. Baseball parlays are known for a better payout then, say an NFL parlay.

I am not playing much with the sports of late. I may get back in after the Fourth.



Good luck in your investments.

06-21-2005, 09:00 AM
Yes the old parlay bet.

Remember that game about6 years ago when the Steelers won the coin toss but the Vikings choice to receive? AndCowherdid not say anything? Then the next drive Vikings ran it in for a touchdown. The score was Pittsburg 20 Vikings 0 at half time. If the Steelers would of won that game I would of won $136,000 on a perfect Sunday Pick in Reno (choicing all the winningteams on that Sunday). Instead I got ZERO. 13 out of 14 - NOTA. :(

:( I live overseas now - hard for me to sports bet. Even with Sat TV, lucky to get a couple games a week. Actually I can not sit through a whole baseball game anymore - way to slow for me now. 20 seconds betweenpitches - Zzzzzzzzz.

Good luck to you Namor. Hope you like the new job. :D

namor
06-24-2005, 09:01 AM
It's always Fund until somebody loses an I.

Although the G is tempting me once again with its penny, I am going to go all in and take a shot at the bull's I.

Today: F Fund
Monday: I Fund

Go TSP! Row dee oh!

"Cmon, who's with me?!" -Bluto

namor
06-27-2005, 10:17 AM
I am hoping for OPEC to open the floodgates and get that price down and good news from the Feds. Fireworks are appropo this week!

Today: I Fund
Tomorrow: S Fund

tennisguy
06-28-2005, 02:06 PM
Good call in the S fund today. Good luck
Tennisguy

namor
06-29-2005, 10:04 AM
The market has been so choppy of late, that I don't want to rock the boat, fall into the water and be swallowed whole, like Quint in Jaws:

Movie quote:

"Cage is in the water, shark's in the water. Our shark. Farewell and adieu to you fair Spanish lady. . ."

Today: S Fund
Tomorrow: F Fund

namor
07-01-2005, 07:21 AM
Since the markets are closed on Monday, I am going to hope the overseas is rallying while we are shooting off fireworks.
Have a happy Fourth everyone.

Today: F Fund
COB Today: I Fund

namor
07-05-2005, 08:48 AM
I am going to spend two or three days in the G Fund, pick up the penny and watch the market. Place your wagers early to avoid being shut out!
Good luck in your investments.

Today: I Fund

Tomorrow: G fund

vectorman
07-06-2005, 11:04 AM
namor wrote:
I am going to spend two or three days in the G Fund, pick up the penny and watch the market. Place your wagers early to avoid being shut out!
Good luck in your investments.

Today: I Fund

Tomorrow: G fund



No move for tomorrow?????

namor
07-06-2005, 11:13 AM
I missed the penny, but I will stay in and watch from this safe perch. It looks like it's going to be flat today. At this point, I don't want to get caught in a fall, if there is one. I will probably go F myself tomorrow, tho. ;)

Thank you for your question. Good luck in your investments.

namor
07-08-2005, 07:51 AM
The market has been an eyesore. That makes the I a good buy, imho, if its not up today. I'll keep watch and if its WAY up around 11 AM EST, I might just switch it buy F.

Today: 100% G Fund
Monday: 100% I Fund

namor
07-08-2005, 10:12 AM
I am changing my I buy and instead going into F.

Today: 100% G Fund
Monday: 100%F Fund