Transfer 9/1 for 9/2/04

[tsptalk]

Initiating a transfer to 70% S and 30% I, before today's deadline. That will make it effective tomorrow, 9/2/04.

The man loves pain. I love ya Tom. Today is profit taking from the index funds having to buy stock yesterday.

What made you change today???

MT

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
The man loves pain. I love ya Tom. Today is profit taking from the index funds having to buy stock yesterday.

MT

Not that I believe your theory because the first several days of the month are historically the strongest on average, but the transfer, as I stated, is effective tomorrow. I actually hope we get a little pullback today but this market is looking strong.


What made you change today???
That's what my daily comments are for :) (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_9_1_04.html)) 9/1/04

TSP,

This is an interesting market. Looks like the hedge funds are selling bonds and buying oil. The cowards in Russia are killing hostages and I am 100% G Fund.

I wish you look!

MT

[puertorico]

I HAVE been lucky this week being 100% on I-FUND..[ABOUT TIME]

BEING LOOSING 2CENT IN I-FUND AND WINNIN ABOUT 23-PENNIES.

tHAt put me even in the game.

Today I still 100% on I-fund and hope euro still up over dollar....:^

I-fund have been paying even when sometimes dow jones look loosing...:D



My plan is taying for more$$$$$$$ {greedy again}I thinks we still in the

way up .And olmost in the top I gonna just play 40 in the stock and 60-G

{NOT YET}We are not in the top ,so still looking for more pennies.

for today stay put-100% I-FUND 8-WED-1ST...:^

Mr Rico,

Bonds are selling off big time today!!!! RED ALERT. That means the yields are going up and the F Fund will go down. It looks like the hedge funds are selling bonds (where they have been hiding) and are back in the oil patch again.

This is a hard market to keep gains. You may want to look at the bond market today.

MT

[jonwayner]

I am new, I just discovered TSP Talk recently and this is my first experience with this message program. My question is that from your experience, when isyour interfund tranfere effective? The instructions are contridictary- within 5 businessdays, within 2 business days, or if done before 11:00am is effective by 6:00pm that same day? I have my funds in 100% C. Thank you in advance for your reply.

Jon,

You are new!!! Welcome. TSPTALK (Tom) has answered this one a couple times today. Keep reading the recent posts. But in my experience...if I make the change prior to 11am I get the closing NAV for that day.

Good hunting!

MT

The 5-day thing is just to cover their butts I think. Typicallly, if you request before noon EST, it'll be effective the next day at the previous days ending price per share.

Welcome aboard!!

M_M

[puertorico]

mlk_man wrote:
The 5-day thing is just to cover their butts I think. Typicallly, if you request before noon EST, it'll be effective the next day at the previous days ending price per share.

Welcome aboard!!

M_M



agree...:^

[jonwayner]

Thank you Tom, reading TSP talk is educating me and giving me more confidence. I was like this :s and now I hope by the time I retire I am like this :dude:, with a little hair gel, or like this :cool:will do too. Thanks again.

Jon

Check out tspmoney.com and fundadvice.com. Please do not give Tom a big head. He has been on a roll lately. Which is great. :^ This is a great site and Tom has some solid well thought out guidance.:end: Watch what happens when the auto report comes out this afternoon to the markets.

I think most of the people who are investing right now are amateur investor's. You think they care?

Milk,

I do not like it when people lose money. But it is good practice for them I guess. School of hard knocks. :x

Namor made a hell ofa call thou.

The Intel report is going to be a wake up call thou.

MT

Great call? Looks like S is up more than I..................:%

Milk,

He switch to I fund effective today. I posted the international markets had a bang up day today. He said he was going 100% F today.

MT

MarketTimer wrote:
Milk,

I do not like it when people lose money. But it is good practice for them I guess. School of hard knocks. :x

Wasn't talking about the people here, talking about people in general. I don't think the report will do a whole lot at all. We'll see............

MarketTimer wrote:
Milk,

He switch to I fund effective today. I posted the international markets had a bang up day today. He said he was going 100% F today.

MT
Like I said..............

[tsptalk]

jonwayner wrote:
Thank you Tom, reading TSP talk is educating me and giving me more confidence. I was like this :s and now I hope by the time I retire I am like this :dude:, with a little hair gel, or like this :cool:will do too. Thanks again.

Jon

Great! Welcome Jon.

MarketTimer wrote:
Watch what happens when the auto report comes out this afternoon to the markets.
Damn, thanks for the warning MT. S fund + 9 cents.........LOL :P

mlk_man wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
Milk,

I do not like it when people lose money. But it is good practice for them I guess. School of hard knocks. :x

Wasn't talking about the people here, talking about people in general. I don't think the report will do a whole lot at all. We'll see............God I hate when I'm right, :!

[puertorico]

from 100 I-fund

moving today 50-G 10-C 10-S 30-I

EFFECTIVE FRIDAY [3RD]

BECOUSE

BULLS MAKE MONEY,BEARS MAKE MONEY

AND PIGS GET SLAUGHTERD "JAMES CRAMMER"....:^

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
The man loves pain. I love ya Tom. Today is profit taking from the index funds having to buy stock yesterday.

What made you change today???

MT

No follow-up? :P

I'm sure the market will give me a helping of humble pie shortly, but this underlying worry is what will keep the market afloat. This looked a little like a short covering rally because of the explosiveness. We've talked about that quite a bit lately so I won't rehash.

[puertorico]

Todays nasdag have been hammered baddly will be interesting

to put some in S for monday ? thinking abou it ,20 minute left !

BUt september is the worse month in the season.

dOnt know where to move ?...:D

[Cinderella]

Keep in mind that Monday is a holiday.

[puertorico]

thank cindy

holidays ,Can be a weekend for terrosism...:?

[oneyoungbuck]

After reading your Allocation report today I couldnt help but say "Now I get it". I understand the "Trap" you are talking about. I assumed the Market would be down today but I stayed invested with the thought it was just a trend of some sort. But now I see the "LIGHT", well done.

[nnuut]

So thats what it was! I could see no good reason for such a strong, short rally? :?It was the Darn BEARS selling off!! Too bad I'm all "G", but had no warning? Learn something every day!:i

What's your predictions for the middle of september and mid october?

:dude:

Joined I fund at 12.81 just jumped ship at 13.15 to the G fund for the weekend thanks for the advice. :^

[tsptalk]

oneyoungbuck wrote:
After reading your Allocation report today I couldnt help but say "Now I get it". I understand the "Trap" you are talking about. I assumed the Market would be down today but I stayed invested with the thought it was just a trend of some sort. But now I see the "LIGHT", well done.
I'm glad someone got it.:) I'm not the best writer and I don't always convey my message very well.

[tsptalk]

FBGATC wrote:
What's your predictions for the middle of september and mid october?

:dude:

Welcome FBGATC!

I have been sticking with the thought that we will have a very good year before it is over. I'm not ruling out 15% to 25% gains. So the way I am playing it is to stay invested as much as possible.

This is one of those situations where if someone guaranteedme a 20% gain if Istayed invested, then I tried to squeeze out 25% by trading and timing things. It doesn't always go according to plan so I'm going to try to get that"20%" gain without getting too cute.

It reminds me of the jokeabout the guy who gives his friend a tip to bet on the home team in tonight'sbasketball game. The guy tells him the visitors have amajor injury that has not been reported. The ref is from the home town and has been bribed to make calls go their way.The visitor's plane was delayed several hours and the they had to travel the entire night. His friend says, "Wow! Great!". Now can you give me another team so I can parlay it?

The moral - Don't screw up a sure thing bytrying to make more. I am often guilty of that :?.

We caught Osama and the job reportwill begang busters was a sucker's rally (Thursday). I believe Friday was the reality and Thursday was political smoke and mirrows in front of the big speech. Intel moved their earnings guidance report from mid afternoon to the close. If that report came out midafternoon as scheduled that would of been a bad day to be in the S fund. It is hard to time when key reports are moved.

However, the raising inventories while cutting prices in the auto reports is not bullish. Do not have the exact numbers but lots of negative sales growth in their reports even with these 0% five year interest plans and rebates. Squeezing margins. Good for the consumer short term, then bad for stocks then bad for the economy. Like dominoes...they are starting to fall.

mlk_man wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:
Watch what happens when the auto report comes out this afternoon to the markets.
Damn, thanks for the warning MT. S fund + 9 cents.........LOL :P

Oink, Oink Mr Rico,

You got greedy. You moved out of a fund that dropped .15 per share. The goal is to buy them after they fell 15 cents.

Cramer in March 2000 said buy tech funds "hands over fist" because this is a great buying opportunity to buy cheap tech stocks of their Jan 00 lows. The NASDAQ went on to drop -38.7 the rest of the year.

He has been talking up Nortel and Intel since June - what are they down now 50%. Never, never take 50% loses in a stock. When it drops 5% sell.

MT

puertorico wrote:

from 100 I-fund

moving today 50-G 10-C 10-S 30-I

EFFECTIVE FRIDAY [3RD]

BECOUSE

BULLS MAKE MONEY,BEARS MAKE MONEY

AND PIGS GET SLAUGHTERD "JAMES CRAMMER"....:^

Tom,

We caught Osama and the Friday job report will be gang buster rally rumour got you excited???? Sucker's rally. Anyone that bought into that on Thursday eat crow Friday.

If the market has to go up with rumours and false reports I do not want to be in it.\

What is your outlook for next week?

MT

tsptalk wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
The man loves pain. I love ya Tom. Today is profit taking from the index funds having to buy stock yesterday.

What made you change today???

MT

No follow-up? :P

I'm sure the market will give me a helping of humble pie shortly, but this underlying worry is what will keep the market afloat. This looked a little like a short covering rally because of the explosiveness. We've talked about that quite a bit lately so I won't rehash.

Tom was really sick on Wednesday and was in the hospital Thursday and just got "out". The rally was a fools rally....gang buster job report and we caught Osama rally. Wonder who started that rumour the day prior to the pres speech? X Files stuff.

At 2:05 there was a report that the job report would be gang busters and we caught Osama. Then the shorts got squeeze by amystical rally reason and everyone had a happy face when the DOW was up 127 and turned into the RNC that night. You have to learn not to get flip flop based on rumours and false reports. X files stuff. That is not investing that is speculating.

MT

Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2004 2:19 pm Post subject: Osama to be paraded as a victory after GOP Convention


nnuut wrote: [/b]

So thats what it was! I could see no good reason for such a strong, short rally? :?It was the Darn BEARS selling off!! Too bad I'm all "G", but had no warning? Learn something every day!:i

I know you guys think I am a fool but that means:

S fund you were down .06 per share

I fund you were down .15 per share.

That is a pretty large lose in one day in my opinion.

tsptalk wrote:

Initiating a transfer to 70% S and 30% I, before today's deadline. That will make it effective tomorrow, 9/2/04.

tsptalk wrote:
FBGATC wrote:
What's your predictions for the middle of september and mid october?

:dude:

Welcome FBGATC!

I have been sticking with the thought that we will have a very good year before it is over. I'm not ruling out 15% to 25% gains. So the way I am playing it is to stay invested as much as possible.

This is one of those situations where if someone guaranteedme a 20% gain if Istayed invested, then I tried to squeeze out 25% by trading and timing things. It doesn't always go according to plan so I'm going to try to get that"20%" gain without getting too cute.

It reminds me of the jokeabout the guy who gives his friend a tip to bet on the home team in tonight'sbasketball game. The guy tells him the visitors have amajor injury that has not been reported. The ref is from the home town and has been bribed to make calls go their way.The visitor's plane was delayed several hours and the they had to travel the entire night. His friend says, "Wow! Great!". Now can you give me another team so I can parlay it?

The moral - Don't screw up a sure thing bytrying to make more. I am often guilty of that :?.



Tom,

Why should the market gain 15-25% from here?

MT

MarketTimer wrote:
Tom,

We caught Osama and the Friday job report will be gang buster rally rumour got you excited???? Sucker's rally. Anyone that bought into that on Thursday eat crow Friday.

If the market has to go up with rumours and false reports I do not want to be in it.

What is your outlook for next week?

MT

Sorry Tom!!! You were one of those suckers that bought on Thursday :shock:.

"Initiating a transfer to 70% S and 30% I, before today's deadline. That will make it effective tomorrow, 9/2/04."

NNut you were doing the correct thing. A sucker rally is nothing to lose sleep over.

MT




nnuut wrote: [/b]

So thats what it was! I could see no good reason for such a strong, short rally? :?It was the Darn BEARS selling off!! Too bad I'm all "G", but had no warning? Learn something every day!:i

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
Sorry Tom!!! You were one of those suckers that bought on Thursday :shock:.

You are confused again MT. I was in the S 70% and I fund 30% both Thursday and Friday. No regrets. Made .07 on S fund and lost .05 on I fund.

Yes, you bought on Thursday. No confusion to me there.

Buy high sell low! I am hoping you did not buy at the top. I fund has not seen 13.30 in a long time been over a month and a half for the S fund at 12.71 :s.

Worried about LAX?

I am 100% stock right now and I am nervous as:#.

Got to TSP.GOV and look at past months of Sep for the stock funds. Pretty :shock:.

MT

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
Tom,

Why should the market gain 15-25% from here?

MT

When compared to the 10 year treasury note, the S&P 500 is actually undervalued by about 32% (as of 9/1/04). The 10 year treasury is currently yielding about 4.28 while the S&P 500 yield is 6.37. Back in 2000, we saw the exact opposite. The 10 year treasury was over 6.5% and the S&P earnings yield was down near 4%.

The combination of interest rates and stocksrising, a gain of 15% to 25% would still have stocksfairly valued.

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
Yes, you bought on Thursday. No confusion to me there.

MT

You say I bought on Thursday, but I actuallybought the Wednesday closing price and was in the new funds on Thursday morning.


This markettimer will be 100% G fund on 2 Sep and hope the best for you guys.

MT



I am 100% stock right now [9/4] and I am nervous

MT
You are getting a bit out of control on us MT. You have been calling us nuts for being invested Thursday and crying bear, saying you were 85% G then claim on 9/2 you will be 100% Gbut today, 9/4you say you are 100% in stocks? What are you doing?

Please start an account if you wish to have us follow you. I really appreciate your contributions to the board but these daily ramblings abut your account aren't doing us much good. You are confusing people more than helping.

Thanks,
Tom

MarketTimer wrote:
Tom was really sick on Wednesday and was in the hospital Thursday and just got "out". The rally was a fools rally....gang buster job report and we caught Osama rally. Wonder who started that rumour the day prior to the pres speech? X Files stuff.
Looney bin MT? Be interested in seein your return for te year. You call me nuts for sellin Tursday for a profit and not bein invested Friday wen te market drops? mmmmmmm I like wat I did!!! :^

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
Got to TSP.GOV and look at past months of Sep for the stock funds. Pretty :shock:.

MT

Doesn't anyone read my comments anymore? ;) From 9/2 comments... (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_9_2_04.html)

"Here are the last 40 years of returns for September during presidential election years...

09/64 2.9%
09/68 3.9%
09/72 -0.5%
09/76 2.3%
09/80 2.5%
09/84 -0.3%
09/88 4.0%
09/92 0.9%
09/96 5.4%
09/00 -5.3%

Other than the bear market year of 2000, when the three legs of the bull market were very weak, September has been pretty strong during presidential election years. Now those three legs are quite strong so I am not too worried."

Tom

[Spaf]

Yes! We read your messages, they are good messages, some.

This site is big, you are wearing my mouse out! I think I saw some smoke from my wheel on the mouse?

Caution. As your home page indicates, a lot of TSP money may not have been invested to maximize returns.

Well, most of us are novices, "totally" clueless on where or how we are investing our retirement our future. The CSRS govenment people don't care. TSP is not their system! However, they are generally above FERS people, and so is congress, who initiated this system. Not that it isn't or couldn't be a good system. And, not that it might not be the system of the future for other employees. People in the FERS system, etc., are not informed/educated on what they are in. The Union I am in doesn't understand the risk involved, also clueless.

The problem with your members, is that they are with few exceptions all novices. It would be great if the market of 2003 was the rule. But it's not. There are few points in the last 5 years that you could have rolled over a TSP into a IRA and not suffered (generic) losses. We are federal workers, in uniform or civilian cloths. as I see it TSPTALK is trying to make the best of a very uneducated FERS system.

Tom, you are the commander of this web site. Steer us clear of the ice-burgs. Because I have learned that FERS can be another word, it was called the Titanic.

PS: not responsible for spelling errors, my compUTER did it!

[rokid]

Spaf,

You're right. The government needs to provide its employees with solid TSP investment guidance. Their current "no advice" approach isirresponsible.The unions have alsobeen amazingly silenton this issue. TSPplans tofinesse the problemby offering a 'life cycle" plan that provides aggressive to conservativeasset allocation based on an employee's retirement date. It can't come soon enough! I'm assuming theplan will besimilar to the Vanguard "life cycle" plans, e.g. Vanguard 2045.

Conservatively, you can withdraw 5% of your investments per year in retirement and notrun out of money before you die.For example, a$70K per yearincome requires $1.4Min TSP assets.Therefore, FERS participants need to start investing ASAPand not make too many dumb mistakes.

Recently, Pete1referenced the http://www.coffeehouseinvestor.com/ (http://www.coffeehouseinvestor.com/). This interesting site advocates the "buy and hold, I'm not going to try to beat the market", approach. This is the approach recommended byall investmentacademics,Nobel Prize winners, and such experts as John Bogel, Charles Ellis, Burton Malkiel, and Roger Ibbotson. Of course, Wall Street wants investors to believe that they can beat the market - duh, more fees.

As a CSRS employee, I’m using the TSPsweetenmy pension. However, if I was in FERS, I'd want to make absolutelycertain that I was employing the bestinvesting approach. As I learn more about investing, I firmly believe the average TSP investor shoulddiversify across the funds andtake what the global markets give them,i.e. buy and hold.Market timing has considerable entertainment value, but it canbe hazardous to your long term financial health.

[rokid]

FYI. The following info from the Dalbar Inc. web site. Dalbar is a financial research firm.

http://www.dalbarinc.com/content/showpage.asp?page=qaib (http://www.dalbarinc.com/content/showpage.asp?page=qaib)

During the greatest Bull market in history:

Motivated more by fear and greed than intellect, these investors chase market returns to the detriment of their pocket books. An update to DALBAR's Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB) study shows that since 1984, equity mutual fund shareholders have held their funds for just a little over two years, and as a result have earned less than inflation. Investors in fixed income products do a little better but still earn far less than posted returns.


The average equity investor earned a paltry 2.57% annually; compared to inflation of 3.14% and the 12.22% that the S & P 500 index earned annually for the last 19 years.
The average fixed income investor earned 4.24% annually; compared to the long-term government bond index of 11.70%.
Like the children of Lake Wobegonwe're all above average, but......

Something to think about.;)

[puertorico]

MR MT

I dont think I did bad at all that friday.

AFter 1-week 100% in I-fund winning ,then thursday

I went to 50%stock but effective friday that means

that I cacth up other 10 cent in I-FUND "100%"THAT was thURday.



So, winning about 2 week"100%" in I-fund

and loosing only one day 50% in stock.

So,I grap some profit .and remember you cant no be

perfect in two week not have a least one day loosing.

and when you lose ,that day only beeing 50 % in stock.

Wao that was very very average winning...:^.

by the way thank to you wake-up call thatI did the move

to 50%-G that friday,. aNd that was a "grap the profit rules"...:D

other rule that aply is....

"after days of gain take half out of the table"

So,no that bad week...:^. I was very lucky that I came back to

the game and still up.Before that friday I was in the high ever

in my account after friday still 2nd high in my account....;).

so,keep punching...:D

[nnuut]

How about that I fund? How do you think their rally will affect stocks here? I'm 100% "G", don't want to miss another NICE!:%
WHAT?

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Monday as top world exporter Saudi Arabia slashed prices for its crude sales to the United States and Europe in an effort to shift the large volumes it is offering to cool world markets.

Brent crude futures for October delivery fell 33 cents to $40.90 a barrel in London. Trade was subdued, with U.S. markets closed because of the Labor Day holiday.





Man! is it gonna be green?

[tsptalk]

nnuut wrote:
How about that I fund? How do you think their rally will affect stocks here? I'm 100% "G", don't want to miss another NICE!:%
WHAT?

Europe is up modestly but Japan was up over 2% Monday morning. It sure won't hurt. :)

[puertorico]

I HOPe the market still in the way up unstil raise rate again

As all seeN-when rate raise ,stock go down.

When rate cut, the market go up...:^

But I dont think I gonna make the same mistake i DID before.

after having some gains, gonna play 50% stock not a 100% again.

And IF still up, almost in the top only 30% stock ,,,,70%-G...:D

[puertorico]

what in the menu for thursday most of the time down :shock:

This Thursday we have the intial job claims reports that has not been rosy for awhile.

We also got earnings from National Semiconductor that could be a INTEL Part II.

Hate to be a flip flopper you are making be bearish again :)!!!!

The SOXX is scaring me. The indexes follow the SOXX:

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/6m/_/_soxx.gif