Sep: The Cruelest Month

[Rod]

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/31/markets/september/index.htm?cnn=yes

What are your thoughts?

Does it have anything to do with Fiscal Year end?

[Timer]

Rod, It's a good article. I'm betting that Sept will not be kind. I've pulled back to a conservative position.

[Rod]

Yeah, I'm remaining 100%G until further notice.

Here's another point of view. It is an election year. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040825/markets_stocks_conventions_1.html

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
Here's another point of view. It is an election year. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040825/markets_stocks_conventions_1.html


That still places a big fat ? on the month of September, since October is the month after the GOP.

My outlook for Sep.

This Friday is going to be a blood bath. The day after Intel reports their earnings outlook is going to be bad. The end of the month may be good (like 31 Aug) from mutual funds buying stocks to pad there quarterly statements. Keep in mind that the mutual funds do not do that at 3:45 30 Sep anymore but a couple days prior to avoid the SEC stuff.

I know money will flow in the end of the month. By the time it starts it will be after the TSP cut off to get in. I may go 100% in stocks on 28 Sep to roll the dice and try to catch that buying.

This is a tough market. If you can get a couple cents here a couple cents there and preserve your capital you are beating the pros at this point.

MT

Rod wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
Here's another point of view. It is an election year. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040825/markets_stocks_conventions_1.html


That still places a big fat ? on the month of September, since October is the month after the GOP.


But, it actually started in Aug? LOL :oo

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
Rod wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
Here's another point of view. It is an election year. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040825/markets_stocks_conventions_1.html


That still places a big fat ? on the month of September, since October is the month after the GOP.


But, it actually started in Aug? LOL :oo
We're not talking about the start, but rather the end.

So, the month after the end of theconvention is October. ;)

From the article:

"A group of trading strategists at Credit Suisse First Boston studied changes in the Standard & Poor's 500 index (CBOE:^SPX (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5espx) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=_spx)) before, during and after the last 18 GOP conventions."

"We have looked at what has happened (after the conventions), especially since the S&P 500 has been in such a tight range all year," said Phil Mackintosh, a portfolio trading strategist at CSFB based in New York."

"Investors looking for market gains after the convention need to be patient, the study suggested. The market has generally tended to be flat during the convention itself and weak in the week immediately after it ended."

So technically, the month after the convention (after meaning- the end)is October.;)

I am looking for substained market direction after the election. Right now we will trend lower like we have since the start of the year. Not sure why the market is up right now since we just got a bad ISM index report and oil is up nearly $1.00.

Anyone have any ideas?

"Investors looking for market gains after the convention need to be patient, the study suggested. The market has generally tended to be flat during the convention itself and weak in the week immediately after it ended."

So technically, the month after the convention (after meaning- the end)is October.;)




What about the two weeks after the week immediately after the end? They disappear? Does the RNC always start the last week of August?

MarketTimer wrote:
I am looking for substained market direction after the election. Right now we will trend lower like we have since the start of the year. Not sure why the market is up right now since we just got a bad ISM index report and oil is up nearly $1.00.

Anyone have any ideas?


The so called "odd investors" maybe?

If the volume was higher I would get excited about this market. Hopefully the mutual funds do not come in and sell to lock in a gain for the year soon. The indexes are approaching a gain for the year (after management fees). If we make it through the week without no major hits I will get more bullish. I may "lose" some money this week but I can make it up later when things look clearer.

We will see what happens when the auto/truck report comes out this afternoon. Just to many minefields for me right now.

MT

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:


"Investors looking for market gains after the convention need to be patient, the study suggested. The market has generally tended to be flat during the convention itself and weak in the week immediately after it ended."

So technically, the month after the convention (after meaning- the end)is October.;)




What about the two weeks after the week immediately after the end? They disappear? Does the RNC always start the last week of August?

Those "two weeks" are not always the last two weeks of themonth of convention end. They could fall into the following month.

No, they haven't always started the last week of August. Sometimes they fell in the middle of June,July and August. Check out this link:

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781449.html