My strategy - The Boxer/Vegas Gambler play

[namor]

I discovered in mid-May how addicting allocating your TSP can be. I am not sure what to call my strategy, other than stick and move. I go to Vegas frequently, so I do like to gamble,hence I play fluctuations alot.

I don't diversify my funds, rather, I usually invest 100% intoone fund.I try to time everythingand buy when the market is low and get out when its high. Its definitely risky strategy, but I figure unless the market makes an incredible drop, you can always jump out before you lose too much. I track all the markets, internationalas well as domestic dialy, and then try to predict what will happentomorrowbased on this morning.

I have done well since May, and now several people in my office wait for me to advise them and follow me in allocating daily.It was my success/luck that led me to your site; I wondered if anyone was out there discussing TSP allocations. Very interesting site.

Anyhow, here is what I am in now: 100% C fund. I jumped in here yesterday morning after seeing the market go down early. I am going to probably pull it back to 100% G before today's deadline, and see if I can bank today's profit.

Good luck everyone.

[tsptalk]

Welcome namor!

I see no profits the rest of the week. Other then a possible bump up when the military tsp cash hits on 2 Sep. Reports have been revised down and we are still missing them. Intel is going to hurt the market again. The old one two punch. Goes news on Monday (decrease chip size) bad news on 2 Sep with growing inventory and slowing growth - IMO.

MT

[namor]

Sometimes you have to take a punch to score a punch. We'll see what happens.

The markets have been good to me this summer.

[namor]

UPDATE:

Using a counterpunch strategy, I am changing my allocation for COB from 100% G to 100% I fund.

Hoping for a bounce tomorrow.

Good luck to everyone.

Namor Garcia,

"The markets have been good to me this summer. "

What market are you in???

July August (so far)

C -3.24 -.23

S -5.52 -.63

I -3.26 .26 (Foreign stocks had a bad day today)

I have done will with my Austria, Brazil and Australia EFTsbut not this market in the TSP. Have hit some doubles on the short side. I do not like to lose a red cent. And if you were long this summer you are underwater for the year.

In the previous 53 years September is the worse month for the U.S. stock market. I see no reason why this trend should change this year.

I think Mohammed Ali had the you got to take a punch to give a punch philosophy..that worked out well for him. The key to being a good investor is to know when to come out of the corner and when to throw in the towel. :end: Yes the market will go back up. We are stillin a repair status(P/Es constricting).Iwill stay in my foxhole and let the shells hitothers.

Good luck.

MT

Namor,

Bad move, the U.S. dollar is hitting three month highs against major currencies. This means their huge imports gives them less of their currency (less corporate profits).

A bad job report will knock them harder then our market.

Last job report - I fund went from 13.48 to 13.34

C fund 11.88 to 11.79

If you want to be that aggressive I would beat on the F fund going up because the 10% yield keeps falling...but that would be a very short term beat. When the yields start rising the NAV will drop very fast.

Anyone else have thoughts on going 100% I fund now?

MT

MarketTimer wrote:
I think Mohammed Ali had the you got to take a punch to give a punch philosophy..that worked out well for him. MT



Wasn't boxings fault what happened to Ali.

It took me two months to gain a profit when I bought the S fund in late April, that means I have 3 weeks to make a profit from when I bought S this time in mid July. Even though the market is downtrending right now, I still expect it to get back to $13. I'll wait it out. I refuse to take a loss from when I bought at $12.64.

namor wrote:
UPDATE:

Using a counterpunch strategy, I am changing my allocation for COB from 100% G to 100% I fund.

Hoping for a bounce tomorrow.

Good luck to everyone.

You may have missed it by a day my brother. Probable when you try to time it daily. But you'll be ok. Lot of rounds left............Get up Rock, get up!!!!!!!!!!:P

Milk,

That was a metaphor :cool:.The last time the S fund was at 12.64 was 22 Mar.I do not see the S fund testing that again forawhile. The NASDAQ would have to close about 1933 or 110 points from here. It will get back up there, eventually. I rather bank the gains and put them in G and get .01 oncea week. There will be much better times to purchase later. You got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them. Hold and hope the nav will come back is a losing game.

MT

Notice you don't have an account here? Why not? I'll go against for ya for the year. :P

Down goes Frazier!!!! :l

[namor]

Not sure where the Garcia comes from, BUT

let me reiterate how the markets have been good to me this summer.

I have been changing my 100% allocation DAILY. Even though a particularfund may have lost overall fora givenmonth, there are days when it gains and when it loses.

I never stay more thana couple days in a single fund. I retreat to G and F if I feel that I need to wait and see. If a fund goes down for more than two days, I try to play the bounce. Rarely do the funds drop day after day after day, so if you get lucky and time things right, you can come out ahead of any single fund. I wish I had found this site earlier so I could have posted what I did all summer, but alas, I am starting with today.

It's not foolproof, but then again nothing is.

The S&P finished up today, so having my 100% in C today should give me more than the 100% F (whereI hadit yesterday) International markets have been dropping this weekso far. I hope I made the right play for tomorrow.

Its a crap shoot, but I do like to play that game too. Good luck to everyone.

[puertorico]

Namor

different but interesting,You means if you see S is wAy down today ,next

day you bet on S go up ?

So if hopkins is ahead on the bets, u pick Delahoya ?

by the way who gonna win oscar o hopkins ?:D

That's kind of contrarian for next day...:cool:



Nice and interesting...good point...:^

I do that betwen stock .

If S-FUND IS UP MORE THAN C

NEXT DAYi GO TO C-fund

bUT sometimes when you dothe transfer you don't know todays result

exatly unstil closed .

[Timer]

namor wrote:

I never stay more thana couple days in a single fund. I retreat to G and F if I feel that I need to wait and see. If a fund goes down for more than two days, I try to play the bounce. Rarely do the funds drop day after day after day, so if you get lucky and time things right, you can come out ahead of any single fund. I wish I had found this site earlier so I could have posted what I did all summer, but alas, I am starting with today.



Food for thought. Welcome Namor

[namor]

puertorico wrote:
Namor

different but interesting,You means if you see S is wAy down today ,next

day you bet on S go up ?

So if hopkins is ahead on the bets, u pick Delahoya ?

by the way who gonna win oscar o hopkins ?:D



It's not exactly that cut and dried, just betting on a fund to come back if it is down. I look at other things, like if Greenspan is going to speak, where the price of oil is at, unemployment figures etc etc. These market drivers don't happen every day, but they cangive you a good idea what to play.

TSP funds are a more fair fight than a true boxing match. They will go up and down and up and down and in the long run, will give you more or less if you just stayed in that particular fund. Just try to hit the right fund that is due to go up. In a boxing match, I wouldn't bet round by round, I'd bet on the outcome.

To answer your boxing question:

As for Oscar De La Hoya vs. Bernard Hopkins, my first feeling is that De La Hoya showed his age inhis last fight, and he looks finished as a fighter. Hopkins has proved he is tough, but his business manager has always scared the heck out of me (himself) HasHopkins had enough matches? or did Oscar use his last fight as a tune-up and is actually ready for a comeback? I think its his age and if I was in Vegas, I'd take Hopkins.

Good luck in sportsbooks and TSP funds. :^

[puertorico]

My LaSt talk about boxing.I saw Oscar was out of shape he

look like a cow.Now he is in great shape and u well see his

8-pack...And not gonna be that easy for hopking that has

39 years ,Oscar 31.Not body give oscar a chance .Ithink he

has the tools to win.[I can't wait to sep.18]



Now we continue to money talk...or Tom gonna get mad...:D

Hey Namor Welcome aboard ok...:^Thanks

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote:
Now we continue to money talk...or Tom gonna get mad...:D

Nah. There's life outside themarket.... Someone told me that once. :D

June 30th to July 19th........One up day? Aug 2nd to Aug 9th.........down everyday? May 17th to june 2nd.........up everday?

How much u think you are up for the year?

MarketTimer wrote:
I see no profits the rest of the week. Other then a possible bump up when the military tsp cash hits on 2 Sep. Reports have been revised down and we are still missing them. Intel is going to hurt the market again. The old one two punch. Goes news on Monday (decrease chip size) bad news on 2 Sep with growing inventory and slowing growth - IMO.

MT
Hey MT, I made 7 cents in the S fund yesterday..........:P

Milk.

I brained farted the S&P 500 reallocation that was effective 31 Aug. Forcing index funds to buy stock. Stupid mistake on my part. Whoever sold 31 Aug made a very good move (and if I would of followed my old advice I would of too).

Licks wounds move forward.

MT

Hey, nobody's perfect. :D

Milk,

Hey thanks for that. I am still kicking myself forforgetting about the forced buying that would come into the market on 31 Aug so that index funds would be in compliance with the revised 500 index. I just about fell over at 3:45 when the markets took off. It was like a current went through me.Themain reason last week I was planning to go 100% G fund31 Aug was for that reason. Then the CNBC guy rubbed it and and said "here comes the institution buying for the S&P 500 index change" at 3:55.

What day do you think the bulk buying will hit the end of Sep to padquarterly performance numbers? The old time was 3:45 the lastmarket day of the quarter. But since the SEC has cracked down it is normally the second to last market day of the quarter. That will be interesting to watch.

But thanks for that message. Was like dropping a wide open touchdown pass. There is not many days we have asure thing. Reallocation index days are one of those and I dropped the ball.

I am glad you were able to get that gain.

MT

[namor]

mlk_man wrote:
June 30th to July 19th........One up day? Aug 2nd to Aug 9th.........down everyday? May 17th to june 2nd.........up everday?

How much u think you are up for the year?


Milk:

Luckily, I wasn't in those funds when they were down.

I have increased my fund substantially since I started doing this on a daily basis in May. Before that, I just left it in one fund and rode the wave. Although I am happy for my success so far, I hesitate to rest on my laurels. Therefore, I'll post my moves in the proper forum here on the message board and see how it goes.

After all, anybody could come in here and whoop it up about making a lot of money on past moves, right?

Like I posted earlier, if I hadn't been doing well, I would have probably dumped it all back into C and rode the wave, never looking at it until the statements came out. It's when you do have success that hooks you into doing this regulary. The thrill when you hit the right funds is a lot like seeing your horse come in in a stakes race.

Good luck to you.

[tsptalk]

namor wrote:
After all, anybody could come in here and whoop it up about making a lot of money on past moves, right?

We see a lot of that. You can create an account here as many have done already, where you would post your transactions and returns. If you might be interested I'll set it up for you...

How it works - http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/91.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/91.html)

Other accounts - http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/ (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/)

Thanks!
Tom

I guess you a-holes are talking about me :D. Please set me up. I have posted a lot on this site but have not rooted around yet to the other areas. In about 60 minutes I will be off the internet until I start feeling better.

100% G fund since 30 Aug.

I wish you :dude::dude:sa good week!

MT

MarketTimer wrote:
I guess you a-holes are talking about me :D. Please set me up. I have posted a lot on this site but have not rooted around yet to the other areas. In about 60 minutes I will be off the internet until I start feeling better.

100% G fund since 30 Aug.

I wish you :dude::dude:sa good week!

MT

Easy big daddy, guilty conscience? LOL They may be talking about me....:P

Actually, I've posted a spreadsheet detailing my moves and earnings already. :^

Still with me Joel? Haven't heard from ya in awhile..........

Hey MT, lot's of conversation today huh? Maybe it's a sign the market is improving? Pretty quite when we head south..................:iHey another "indicator"!!! LMAO

I will do up a spreadsheet also. We need to come up with something that is easier to track. Maybe have all of us on one page. I got a idea!!! How about have three or four groups of five playing "the TSP" funds against each other. At least one bull, one bear and one newbie. That would be fun. Not using real TSP accounts. Just playing like we are.

I am bearish because no one is worried about the job report on Friday. It is like touching a flame (last month) and going back to get burned again. I am just glad I am out again right now.

Have a great day!
MT

MarketTimer wrote:
I will do up a spreadsheet also. We need to come up with something that is easier to track. Maybe have all of us on one page. I got a idea!!! How about have three or four groups of five playing "the TSP" funds against each other. At least one bull, one bear and one newbie. That would be fun. Not using real TSP accounts. Just playing like we are.




Only if we hold hands................:!:!:!:!