View Full Version : NEXT BUBBLE TO BURST

08-29-2004, 11:41 AM
forecloses are up double digits in most states and mortage rates are still at 50 year lows. When mortgage rates starts to raise we will see some serious hurting (and great buys :cool:). Keeping hording cash. Recent headlines:

Foreclosure pros say business is booming

Foreclosure Rates Reaching Crisis Levels
August 28, 2004 — Foreclosure rates in the U.S. are reaching crisis levels inmost states.


With the boom in housing prices property taxes and higher house insurance this will squeeze out spare change of overstrapped folks. Before opening your next house insurance statement - please sit down - mine went up 18%. Hey milk prices have doubled in the last eight months...how is the inflation rate at 2.1%????

Median home price up 9.1%

By Sandra Block, USA TODAY
If you think home prices in your area are high, be glad you're not house-hunting in Orange County, Calif.
In the second quarter, the median price for an existing home in Orange County was $655,300, up nearly 39% from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. For the first time, median home prices in Orange County surpassed those in the San Francisco Bay Area, which had been the USA's highest-priced housing market since the late 1990s. (Chart: Home prices for selected areas (http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2004-08-26-metroprices.htm))

The median price for homes in the San Francisco Bay Area was $647,300, up 15.5% from a year earlier.

Nationally, the median home price was $183,800 in the second quarter, up 9.1% from a year earlier, according to the NAR. The association's survey of 128 metropolitan regions found a record 49 metro areas with double-digit annual increases. Tight housing supplies created a sellers' market in many parts of the country, the NAR said.

Orange County has a limited supply of land for new construction, which has driven up prices on existing homes, says Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. In addition, Southern California's economy is growing faster than Northern California's, she says.

A limited supply of homes also helped the median home price in Las Vegas jump 52.4% to $269,900, the fastest growth in the nation. Las Vegas had a 1.7-month supply of homes on the market, vs. an average 4.2-month supply for the nation.

08-29-2004, 12:41 PM
So, MT, I know you believe that we are in a bear market, are you turning bearish over the recent run up in stocks? Do you think the RNC will be bad for the Market? Doesn't the Market like the GOP?

08-29-2004, 12:50 PM

The recent run up was on very low volume. When the market goes down it is on high volume. We are in a bear market. I know we are the fast food society but bear markets last longer then 4 years. Bull market runs in bear markets last on average 10 months. The last bull market run was about 10 months - middle of March 2003 to the middle of December 2004. Now we are faced with lower highs and lower lows just like 2000 before the big drop off. The bull run was on the back of the tax cuts and child care checks. Now GDP is slowing, employment is slowing and we have a crushing deficit.

The market likes the GOP. However NYC does not like the GOP. Why is the RNC being held there???


NEW YORK -- Nearly half of the relatives of victims who died in the World Trade Center attack say the Republican National Convention should have been held elsewhere, and about a quarter believe the GOP chose New York "to capitalize on Sept. 11," according to a new survey.

08-29-2004, 02:36 PM
MarketTimer wrote:

Why is the RNC being held there???

Does a healthy man need a physician?


08-29-2004, 04:19 PM
I still say you are over overestimating the volume thing. Half of Wall St. is on vacation the last week or so of August. That is why the volume was low. It is always low in August. Volume has been above average this year compared to atypical August. Wait to see what happens after Labor Day.

I still expect a little rest here in the short term but it wouldn'tsurprise me if the market strength continues because everyone is expecting a pause. The market likes to do the opposite of what the majority think will happen.