View Full Version : Buy H(I)gh... Sell H(I)gher!
High Risk! Not for the faint of heart!
Shaking the dust off from hunkering down in (G) since July, I brought in the New Year by going 100 (I).
I would like this thread to become a quick reference for new (I) Fund highs.
We can specifically discuss recent highs and try to estimate the next top before a sell-off. Doing so will save us losses. I've been trying to do this since the new year and have made 3.31% YTD.
I don't claim to have a system. I simply pay attention to where the (I) price is, has been, & may go in proportion to where the dollar and markets stand.
So, let's get started!
A new high of 22.68 was set on Feb 2.
Prior highs:
22.66: Feb 1 (Rod sold)
22.53: Jan 24 (Rod sold)
22.45: Jan 23
22.44: Jan 3
22.22: Dec 29 (Rod bought)
22.21: Dec 28 (in G)
22.18: Dec 27 (in G)
IMO, for the (I) to break through higher than 22.68, it needs to fall lower.
So, the question remains... how much lower before it proceeds to climb higher, thus breaking through 22.68?
It's pretty easy to call "tops"- the highest a price climbs before it begins to fall-, but IMO it's much harder to call "bottoms"- the lowest a price falls before it begins to recover and climb.
The bottom here may be anywhere between 22.24-22.53 before it proceeds to climb higher. Remember, (I) was @ 22.24 only a week ago. This was 1 trading day before the 5-day run-up we just experienced. The high prior to 22.24 was 22.53. This is how I established my bottom range.
For illustrative purposes, the (I) could very well gain another .07 on Monday, bringing it to 22.75. But where will it go Tuesday? If it continues to climb on Tuesday, then a new high has definitetly been established. But if it climbs to 22.75 on Monday, only to fall to 22.60 by Tuesday, it's not considered a new high in my book. It's still fluctuating, trying to find its new high. I like to see two consecutive days of gains before I call it a new high.
Now, you may have a better method to your own madness. If so, by all means post it! That's what this thread is all about. It's not about me, it's about us working together as a team to beat the pants off the (I)!
God Bless:)
Disclaimer:
I will be in a military exercise Feb 5-10 and will not be able to closely monitor the markets.
350zCommTech
02-03-2007, 11:06 PM
Now, you may have a better method to your own madness. If so, by all means post it! That's what this thread is all about. It's not about me, it's about us working together as a team to beat the pants off the (I)!
Rod,
I look at everything except the I fund price. :D
Rod,
I look at everything except the I fund price. :D
Well then, we're make a great team!:D
Birchtree
02-04-2007, 03:14 PM
As of December 2006, Japan's investment trusts held more than 40% of their funds in foreign currencies, up from roughly 20% at the start of 2004. The Japanese currency's weakness is sounding alarm bells in Europe, they are concerned that a falling yen will make European exports too expensive for Japanese customers. The I fund could see $21.75 before it reaches $22.75. Now that most all mutual funds are weighted down with internationals it may be time for a shift back to the USA. The hedge funds will start the mass movement to be out the door first.
As of December 2006, Japan's investment trusts held more than 40% of their funds in foreign currencies, up from roughly 20% at the start of 2004. The Japanese currency's weakness is sounding alarm bells in Europe, they are concerned that a falling yen will make European exports too expensive for Japanese customers. The I fund could see $21.75 before it reaches $22.75. Now that most all mutual funds are weighted down with internationals it may be time for a shift back to the USA. The hedge funds will start the mass movement to be out the door first.
We were at 21.75 just a little over 3 weeks ago. That wouldn't be so bad.
I'd love to see it drop to at least 21.00. That would be a decent buying opportunity.
Heck, when it was down to 17.73 on June 13 would have been the ideal time to buy.
But, I do believe it is due for a correction which we will see soon enough.
Just when that will be... who knows?
In the meantime, we'll just try to call the highs and try to get back in on the bottoms.
weatherweenie
02-04-2007, 09:26 PM
We were at 21.75 just a little over 3 weeks ago. That wouldn't be so bad.
I'd love to see it drop to at least 21.00. That would be a decent buying opportunity.
Nikkei 300 -1.30% would be a good start towards a decent buying opp.
Nikkei 300 -1.30% would be a good start towards a decent buying opp.
This is what I was anticipating since it hit a high on Friday.
Still a few more hours left in their trading day.
Hope to wake up in the morning and see it down further.
As of 11:04 EST:
Nikk 300: -1.52%
Nikk 225: -1.21%
Looking good.
Good night...
weatherweenie
02-04-2007, 10:32 PM
As of 11:04 EST:
Nikk 300: -1.52%
Nikk 225: -1.21%
Looking good.
Good night...
Haven't paid too much attention, but it seems the I hasn't been tracking the Nikkei too closely of late.
With 100% G for myself, I'm hoping for a drop across the board.
James48843
02-05-2007, 06:02 AM
Everybody seems to be hoping for a drop, and many here are on the lilly pad this morning. Big frogs, small pond. Lilly pads almost sinking from the weight of all the lilly paders ready to jump.
Who knows?
If it starts down, I guess we will have to hold on until it settles. With my luck, it will set new highs all week.
This morning-
Nikkei down
CAC down
DAX down
FSTE down.
Perhaps it's finally time for some air.
HAILSTORM
02-05-2007, 07:05 AM
Now this is the really hard part...for those of us who got out Friday before noon, now do we get back in by noon today...or do we wait another day to see what happens? Thoughts?
Show-me
02-05-2007, 07:10 AM
Always the hard part. Is this a burp, a breath, a sigh, or a big gulp of air?
The_Technician
02-05-2007, 07:40 AM
Everybody seems to be hoping for a drop, and many here are on the lilly pad this morning. Big frogs, small pond. Lilly pads almost sinking from the weight of all the lilly paders ready to jump.
Who knows?
If it starts down, I guess we will have to hold on until it settles. With my luck, it will set new highs all week.
This morning-
Nikkei down
CAC down
DAX down
FSTE down.
Perhaps it's finally time for some air.
I was thinking this weekend, the connnotation of the term "Lilly Pad" is very negative based on the posts of certain members since the term appeared.
I learned alot while sitting on that pad and hence I would like to change that term to something else.
Maybe something for monkeys like the Monkeys Bar or maybe the Smart Pad......you do gather alot of info while you're there, if you're looking.
:cool:
The_Technician
02-05-2007, 07:40 AM
Everybody seems to be hoping for a drop, and many here are on the lilly pad this morning. Big frogs, small pond. Lilly pads almost sinking from the weight of all the lilly paders ready to jump.
Who knows?
If it starts down, I guess we will have to hold on until it settles. With my luck, it will set new highs all week.
This morning-
Nikkei down
CAC down
DAX down
FSTE down.
Perhaps it's finally time for some air.
I was thinking this weekend, the connnotation of the term "Lilly Pad" is very negative based on the posts of certain members since the term appeared.
I learned alot while sitting on that pad and hence I would like to change that term to something else.
Maybe something like the Monkeys Bar or maybe the Smart Pad......you do gather alot of info while you're there, if you're looking.
:cool:
fabijo
02-05-2007, 09:12 AM
Always the hard part. Is this a burp, a breath, a sigh, or a big gulp of air?
The sad part is that we will only know for sure a few years from now, when we can look back at the big picture.
qibovin
02-05-2007, 11:00 AM
I was thinking this weekend, the connnotation of the term "Lilly Pad" is very negative based on the posts of certain members since the term appeared.......you do gather alot of info while you're there, if you're looking.
:cool:
Yes, but I have learned to remind myself that it DOES increase in value as well. I have gained a lot from this board over just less than the past year. One of those is demonstrated well by the 3-4+%ers this January. There is a time for the lily pad and a time to swim big. Even at 3% a month, only six selective months in stocks and 6 in the G will give you around 20% for the year. I can live with that.
Birchtree
02-05-2007, 11:20 AM
Blame that "Lilly Pad" stuff on Spaf - that's what he named his boat. You could be like some and ask yourself every day - am I missing out here? Of course you are but it's only money. A stronger than expected economy, tame inflation and solid earnings should cause stocks to keep churning higher, ultimately winning over the skeptics. Buying panic on the horizon.
HAILSTORM
02-05-2007, 11:50 AM
Fabijo, Technician, Gilligan, 350z, or anyone else:
Anyone working on some way to figure out the anticipated FV changes in their daily predictions (beyond knowing that a given plus or minus FV assessment may be recouped in a day or two)? I'm thinking that the answer is that it's impossible, because only transactions that occur between noon and the market close can create a FV adjustment???? Thanks in advance!
The_Technician
02-05-2007, 11:53 AM
Fabijo, Technician, Gilligan, 350z, or anyone else:
Anyone working on some way to figure out the anticipated FV changes in their daily predictions (beyond knowing that a given plus or minus FV assessment may be recouped in a day or two)? Thanks in advance!
Yeah, I got some thoughts, theories really, it seems to be evolving at the moment......
wv-girl
02-05-2007, 12:19 PM
Found some literature from MarketWatch (if you are interested)
"Challenging the dollar's dominance
Currency diversification may not be as scary as the market thinks"
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...B16A4C322CC%7D (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/currency-diversification-may-not-scary/story.aspx?guid=%7BB99AD4C5%2D178D%2D4288%2D88C5%2 DCB16A4C322CC%7D)
Hope the link works(1st try)
Could make up some losses today.
Dollar is down... and OSM don't look too shabby.
Too bad I'll be too busy and miss all the fun...
Congrats to those who have been in (I) the past 2 days.:cool:
I'm surprised to see it at 22.85. It'll be nice to be able to pay attention again to the markets next week.
Until then, I look forward to seeing how high this baby climbs!
Good luck too all!
Congrats to those who have been in (I) the past 2 days.:cool:
I'm surprised to see it at 22.85. It'll be nice to be able to pay attention again to the markets next week.
Until then, I look forward to seeing how high this baby climbs!
Good luck too all!
Of utmost importance to us all - what time is the ECB meeting Thursday?
GA
weatherweenie
02-07-2007, 10:51 PM
Hasn't been much of an indicator the last couple of days, but the Nikkei 300 opened up about 0.25% and is now down 0.71%.
roguewave
02-07-2007, 10:52 PM
Congrats to those who have been in (I) the past 2 days.:cool:
I'm surprised to see it at 22.85. It'll be nice to be able to pay attention again to the markets next week.
Until then, I look forward to seeing how high this baby climbs!
Good luck too all!
How about for those that have been in 34 out of the last 37 months?
How about for those that have been in 34 out of the last 37 months?
I'm CEO of the entire Western Hemisphere, and can fire you all on the spot, but it's not on our tracker, so it's moot; consequently, I just do not get the respect I deserve. LOL
GA
roguewave
02-08-2007, 09:01 AM
I'm CEO of the entire Western Hemisphere, and can fire you all on the spot, but it's not on our tracker, so it's moot; consequently, I just do not get the respect I deserve. LOL
GA
It's a tough game. One of understanding. Good luck.
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/merk/0206.html
Per 350's early estimate of a loss of .17 will simply bring the (I) back to the price of 22.68- .02 above where I sold it at in anticipation of a sell-off.
Still waiting for a drop further which may come Friday.
If 350Z's estimates are correct (and they normally are), the (I) will lose around .11 tonight if the -18 FV is applied. That will bring the (I) share price to 22.59 and closer to my bottom range of:
22.24-22.53
With it jumping around so much lately it may need to settle lower than 22.59 before it really grabs my attention. But, I will not tie my hands to my bottom range. If a good buying opportunity presents itself next week, I may jump aboard. In the meantime, I'll continue to "relax" in (G).
Kudos goes out to 350Z for his continue faithfulness in posting (I) estimates.:cool:
God Bless:)
350zCommTech
02-09-2007, 04:28 PM
Kudos goes out to 350Z for his continue faithfulness in posting (I) estimates.:cool:
God Bless:)
Thanks Rod. Enjoy your weekend.:)
12%ayear
02-09-2007, 06:32 PM
Very nice indeed
Looks like (I) lucked out tonight. UP .08
With it jumping around so much lately it may need to settle lower than 22.59 before it really grabs my attention. But, I will not tie my hands to my bottom range. If a good buying opportunity presents itself next week, I may jump aboard. In the meantime, I'll continue to "relax" in (G).
God Bless:)
I believe I missed an ideal buying opportunity Monday @ 22.63.
Wednesday will more than likely see more gains and set a new high in (I).
If I was in (I), I would consider bailing by COB Wednesday.
God Bless:)
roguewave
02-14-2007, 09:15 AM
I believe I missed an ideal buying opportunity Monday @ 22.63.
Wednesday will more than likely see more gains and set a new high in (I).
If I was in (I), I would consider bailing by COB Wednesday.
God Bless:)
Why would you consider bailing out of a fund that has such a well established trend line moving in your direction based on T/A and, more importantly, fundamental analysis?
Why would you consider bailing out of a fund that has such a well established trend line moving in your direction based on T/A and, more importantly, fundamental analysis?
Because my own personal short-term strategy is to sell the high which is the best thing for me to do since I am not a buy-n-holder. That said, the (I) will more than likely hit a new high today. Thus, I would sell that high in anticipation of a "sell-off" which I believe will occur by the end of the week.
I'm just trying to call the highs here, then sell them. The difficulty of it all is calling the lows and deciding when to jump back in. I missed the most recent @ 22.63. It probably would have leaned in my favor if the -FV was "caught" on Friday, which it was not. Instead, the (I) posted a .08 gain.
Overall, my main goal is not to get caught up in the eventual sell-off. That may mean missing some intermediate gains. But I'm happy with that as long as I don't get whipsawed on the way down like I did last summer. Please remember, I'm not being bearish but optimistically cautious because of the lesson I learned from the summer sell-off.
Good luck with your trades & God Bless:)
roguewave
02-14-2007, 10:10 AM
Because my own personal short-term strategy is to sell the high which is the best thing for me to do since I am not a buy-n-holder. That said, the (I) will more than likely hit a new high today. Thus, I would sell that high in anticipation of a "sell-off" which I believe will occur by the end of the week.
I'm just trying to call the highs here, then sell them. The difficulty of it all is calling the lows and deciding when to jump back in. I missed the most recent @ 22.63. It probably would have leaned in my favor if the -FV was "caught" on Friday, which it was not. Instead, the (I) posted a .08 gain.
Overall, my main goal is not to get caught up in the eventual sell-off. That may mean missing some intermediate gains. But I'm happy with that as long as I don't get whipsawed on the way down like I did last summer. Please remember, I'm not being bearish but optimistically cautious because of the lesson I learned from the summer sell-off.
Good luck with your trades & God Bless:)
I won't argue with you concerning last May's sell off, it was brutal. I actually transferred from I to G for the first time in two years but after reassessing why it happened, I transferred back in 100% in September and have stayed put since then. We might again have another brutal sell off in all equity markets around the world but it won't phase me as I understand why they're occuring. Good luck trading the uptrend.
This is why the I is on fire as of today.
http://www.mineweb.net/mining_finance/628738.htm
Revising my bottom or "buy-in" range:
22.68-22.85
Again, these are simply "educated guesses" from comparing Feb (I) share prices.
God Bless:)
Birchtree
02-17-2007, 02:34 PM
The internationals have been doing too well for too long - all the mutual fund new money is going international. The public is chasing. If you really want to be in at the best price which I think may be $1.00 lower, simply DCA your way down. That's a dollar lower from your entry price. Some members may have their foot already in the bear trap. If a gator gets you, you drown. You can always get away from the bear trap - simply leave your foot behind. Be prepared for the blind side. You're asking what's wrong with the permabull - fear is winning out over greed. You wanna see my scars? At least it's not my foot.
If you really want to be in at the best price which I think may be $1.00 lower, simply DCA your way down. That's a dollar lower from your entry price
So, you're thinking 22.17? Or a dollar lower from 22.85?
Thanx!
If anyone is interested, so far weekly the (I) has netted +.95 for 2007.
The breakdown is as follows:
week 1: (-.23)
week 2: (+.15)
week 3: (+.19)
week 4: (-.09)
week 5: (+.44)
week 6: (+.10)
week 7: (+.39)
God Bless:)
James48843
02-20-2007, 03:42 PM
You're asking what's wrong with the permabull - fear is winning out over greed. You wanna see my scars? At least it's not my foot.
Wow. The Birch? Permabull Birch? The "snort train" permabull Birch is getting itchy?
Hmmm.....
Now THERE's something to think about.
Finally... looks like folks are taking profit.
Hopefully USM will end in the red today being another catalyst for OSM to take more profit tomorrow.
Targeting (I) to drop below 23.00 by COB Thurs.
Perhaps a buy for myself COB Fri.
God Bless:)
Finally... looks like folks are taking profit.
Hopefully USM will end in the red today being another catalyst for OSM to take more profit tomorrow.
Targeting (I) to drop below 23.00 by COB Thurs.
Perhaps a buy for myself COB Fri.
God Bless:)
Dollar is in free-fall mode & I-Fund remains resilient... UP about .16 at this point in time.
That would give it a new high.
Something's gotta give... and real soon.
BUT, good on you if you have been riding this bull.:cool:
Something's gotta give... and real soon.
let it give... or would that be "take"???
For those of you currently stuck in the (I), you might be tempted to pull out today, and I can't say I blame you.
As you all know, I got caught up in the summer sell-off of 2006 and rode that (I) down until it got too painful.
BUT, if I would had simply stayed put in (I), I would had made back all my losses and then some.
So, what I'm saying is this- DO NOT allow your emotions to dictate your moves, ESPECIALLY if you are in (I) for the long-term.
Keep in mind, you do not lose any $$$ UNTIL you sell. In the meantime, your shares will remain intact.
The (I) WILL return to its previous high. Just give it time.
I just hate to see a lot of folks selling their emotions today.
You need to judge whether or not you intend to ride this thing out like I should have done last summer.
GOOD LUCK & GOD BLESS!:)
GUCHI
02-27-2007, 02:41 PM
rod
so your saying if i'm in the I and let it ride i will be picking up shares at a lower price regardless of whether i'm contributing to the I fund ????
tsptalk
02-27-2007, 05:12 PM
rod
so your saying if i'm in the I and let it ride i will be picking up shares at a lower price regardless of whether i'm contributing to the I fund ????
I don't think that's what he's saying. I think he is just saying don't let the pain of losing be the reason you sell because you could be selling at the bottom. I'm not saying whether I agree with that or not, but that's what he seems to be saying. Nothing about picking up shares.
Revising my bottom or "buy-in" range:
22.68-22.85
Again, these are simply "educated guesses" from comparing Feb (I) share prices.
God Bless:)
I now feel pretty good about this bottom range estimate I gave on Feb 17 since the (I) is now at 22.67, merely a cent from my bottom.
Like I said earlier, it's really hard trying to call the exact bottom. With the OSM definitely in for a sell-off on the 28th in reaction to USM, we could see more volatility through Thursday.
Now that the price has reached below my bottom range, I will not estimate another bottom range until we have some UP days in the future.
In the meantime, we may see more significant losses at least through Wednesday. I may consider buying in by Friday, depending on how Thursday behaves. I have to be careful not to buy the "slide".
Good Luck & God Bless!:)
PS: Thanx Tom. You summed it up.
Now that the price has reached below my bottom range, I will not estimate another bottom range until we have some UP days in the future.
Correction... I meant to say:
Now that the price has reached below my bottom range, I will not estimate my top range (the range to sell-off) until we have some UP days in the future.
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