Transfer 8/25 for 8/26/04

[tsptalk]

I'm getting a little conservative for a few days moving to 40% G, 20% C, 20% S, 20% I.Check out Wednesday's comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_8_25_04.html)for details...

Hello,

Fund Advice just changed their model to dip into the QQQs (S Fund). You may of switched at the wrong time (again). Ha ha.

Take care!

MT

[puertorico]

I'm getting in today after one week out

Tomorrow thurds. 26 {60-s 40-i}

Hey Tom look like we're playing differente game plan.

And I have the wrong-one:D

good luck ...:D

[puertorico]

Tom u getting out and I getting in:sI hope we get flat "even"

"no contest for thurds":^

I am thinking about moving more over to the S fund also.

Right now I am85% G, 5%C, 5% S, and 5% I which Imoved over 13 Aug from G and got a little gain going.

But is anyone surprised the airline crashes in Russia has not effected the market?

Anyone think the Rep Convention will be good for the market?

Very hard time to be investing since we can not short only go long.

Good hunting!

MT

[tsptalk]

This move goes under my category of "playing games." It will be very temporary. I havetaken a lot of crap about my 4% lossthis year, and the only way to beat the indices is to be out when they go down. A healthly (~ 2%) pullback would be good for the market after this recent4% rally.

The week following optionsexpirations week is typically weaker than normal and Thursday is historically the worst of those day (today, Wednesday, is the only positive day). So today may be the day to get out (for tomorrow) if we are going to do it. Plus we may see some nervousness as we approach the Republican convention. Sometime next week I'll be fully invested again. If I'm wrong, I'm still 60% invested.

I know some of you think this is easy (I'm talking about the drunk monkey emails :P:D) so I encourage anyone to start their own account forum here and show us how it is done.

For the record, in June I was beating all of the funds in return for the year, but Julyblindsided me and there is nothing I can do but look ahead.

Good luck

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
But is anyone surprised the airline crashes in Russia has not effected the market?

I thought it was strange that Russia has come out and said this is not terrorism. They must be pretty smart to come to that conclusion so quickly. I thought I heard the hijack button was hit on one of the flights.

But yes, I expected more of a negative response. Maybe that is the strength of the market shining through.

[Timer]

tsptalk wrote:
I know some of you think this is easy (I'm talking about the drunk monkey emails :D) so I encourage anyone to start their own account forum here and show us how it is done. For the record, in June I was beating all of the funds in return for the year, but Julyblind sided me and there is nothing I can do but look ahead.

Good luck

Tom, You haven't lost any credibility with me. I am always interested in what you have to say. I especially like the detail you give behind the logic in your moves. I have read your recent comments and I can see why you would go conservative at this point. I am trying to time on a longer cycle than you however and I am going to let my chips ride in stocks. The only change I am making is to pull out of I and put that in S. I am concerned about the dollar being strong. I'm going to travel the next few days so if something goes haywire in the markets, I can't react but as I said, I am taking a longer view than the next couple of weeks.

I am betting that regardless of oil prices and the Republican convention the general trend from now to the end of the election is up. Once the electorate sees the outcome of the elction, that will inject some certainty into the market and that will be a good time to decide to either 1) ride or 2) take profits.

I've learned a lot on your website and feel like I am a much more informed investor.

At least that's my take.

[puertorico]

I's just my opinion and point of view

If the market not went down in options expiration

if the market not went down in oil 45 to 49

if the market not went down in terrorism news

That means the economi still strong

Nowwe past the options, and oil is in the down move from"49 to 44;)

sO,the market have been flat in those bads time ,May a bad news is

a good news.I think is ready to go up and up.



I agree wich Market-Timer Nice forum to learn u own strategy

But u know how Tom sais THE market is not easy game and play very

difficult.

I follow Tom most of the time and like his writing about the market.

Sometimes I have to go contrarian;)when everybody thing is bad,

then the market hit the roof:D

[puertorico]

I still bullish becouse the market is in the way up.:D

But not go direct up ,two up and one little down and up again unstill the roof:^

[I hope but who knows]...:D

[Rod]

I'm staying put!:^

Anyways, oil is down and we're looking greener and greener.

[tsptalk]

Timer wrote:
I've learned a lot on your website and feel like I am a much more informed investor.

That was my goal Timer. Thanks!

I almost feel forced to make this move because of people emailing me expecting me to beat all of the indices. But I agree, the intermediate term move is up and if you don't make many moves, being fully invested in the stock funds for the intermediate term should be the goal.

Thanks,
Tom

[tsptalk]

This is some of that short covering "explosive" rally I talked about a few days ago. With oil dropping, the bears are getting worried and buying back those short positions. This market is strong, even if we do get a pause.

Tom,

Was your change effective on the 25 August net asset values???

I hope so.

Good hunting!

MT

P.S. Shorting the QQQsand SOXXs now for 2% each. Need to lose my KKD gains! Going long scares me :s.

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
Was your change effective on the 25 August net asset values???

Yes. It is effective today (8/26) so I got 8/25 closing prices.

By the way, welcome MT! We've had a lot of new board members recently and I haven't kept track very well of who I have greeted.

Thank you for greet and nice site!

I am happy you got the 25 Aug price because it feels like there will be a lot of selling going prior to the weekend. A lot of the mid size traders in NY will be out of town due to the RNC and will not want to be checking in every couple of minutes to watch positions from their vacation spot.

Call me crazy but it feels like we are now in 2000 again. We bounced around in a tight trading range for the entire year of 2000 getting close to a market top on the DOW many times (to keep the bulls bullish) and then the shoe dropped on us.

Does anyone else feel that way?

Good hunting - I am doing nothing today accept home my money market yield goes up :Pagain.

MT

For what it's worth, I really don't feel people should be getting out of the markets right now unless you plan on getting back in very, very soon

Milk,

I respect your opinion. This markettimer will be 100% G fund on 2 Sep and hope the best for you guys. GDP and earnings are slowing, the 2003 Quarter 4 earnings reports were block busters and this year will not top them (miss earnings). P/Es (price to earnings) have not been adjusted yet for oil over $40 a barrel and when the are revised you will see P/Es go to mid 20s. The sign of when a bear market is over is when P/Es hit around 5-8. Job growth is slowing, inflating is raising and the fed is tighting....mortage rates will raise and retails slows are flat lining.

A bull market climbs a wall of worry (I know) but the fundamentals are shot to heck. We the U.S. owes our bankers (China/Japan) over $400B in outstanding treasuries debt.

Good hunting! I will be a shorting short cake so your red will be my green.

MT

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
I will be a shorting short cake so your red will be my green.
The great humbler (the market) is watching. And it loves to eat short cake. ;)

[Rolo]

MarketTimer wrote:

Does anyone else feel that way?


I have been wondering if we had started a 50% correction. I will lean more in that direction if we pierce the current low.

Hey, you should start your own "MarketTimer's Account" and "MarketTimer's Account Talk" topics so we can follow your transfers...maybe go back to Jan 04 if you can.

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
maybe go back to Jan 04 if you can.

Everyone's returns are always better before they start posting. ;)

Interesting tidbit for ya:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040825/markets_stocks_conventions_1.html

Milk,

I would say if the election was not so close this may be true. Right now depending on the poll Bush is winning another poll has Kerry winning. The market like a clear picture. It looks pretty cloudy to me.

MT