Anyone interested

[ChemEng]

I know that many people on these boards already have a tool or set of tools to aid in their TSP decision making, but Im wondering if there is any interest in putting one together collaboratively--sort of an "open source" project if you will. It would give an opportunity for newer people to understand some of the key variables and another chance for the experienced gurus to share some knowledge...

I think if we can get 5 interested contributors, that would be enough to get this thing rolling... Soooo.... Any takers?

[SkyPilot]

Let's start with the monkey dart index!

[VirginiaBob]

I'd be interested.

[Spaf]

CE,

I parked my funds while I tried an analysis using a financial investment advisor. The paper chase got out of sync. I'm going back to another decision system.

I'm working on a new system right now.

Your idea sounds great.......................Count me in!

We need a Forum
The forum needs to be free of chit chat stuff, but we could have a sub forum for that!
We need a universal file i.e., PDF [Not everone has Excel]
probably need a narrative
Stats
Analysis
Comments
And some folks to control and moderate it

These are just some thrown together ideas

Rgds
Spaf



I know that many people on these boards already have a tool or set of tools to aid in their TSP decision making, but Im wondering if there is any interest in putting one together collaboratively--sort of an "open source" project if you will. It would give an opportunity for newer people to understand some of the key variables and another chance for the experienced gurus to share some knowledge...

I think if we can get 5 interested contributors, that would be enough to get this thing rolling... Soooo.... Any takers?

[VirginiaBob]

I do think we should use excel. PDF is no more universal than excel. The big difference is that excel can actually calculate things.

[Spaf]

VB
OK, but everone needs to at least have an Excel reader. Hey we could even use a regular post file!

If you take our top 6 leaders (Thanks rokid!!!!.....:D ) and throw in our top two newbies

The aggressive allocation is:
G=28.....F=15.....C=02.....S=15.....I=40

However we need to tone this down for folks nearing or in retirement!

It's not just reward.....You gotta figure in risk!


I do think we should use excel. PDF is no more universal than excel. The big difference is that excel can actually calculate things.

[ayla]

If you mean like one individual updating the RSI spread sheets and another the slow stochastics, and another moving averages/MACD, etc., yes I think I would be happy to participate. Would kinda like to know about what I might be getting myself into though before final commitment.

What I"m seeing with my own setup is a page I call the ALARMS. Most of the results on this sheet are either "TRUE/FALSE" or "buy/sell" or something that can make it easier to make a decision quickly or to see a trend quickly.

For example, I want to know when the RSI for a particular fund transitions from above 80 to below 80 or maybe above 70 and below 70, agreeing on the levels might be difficult to reach a consensus on. I'm beginning to think that I want to use different criteria for the different funds. The I fund rarely goes into "oversold" it seems.

And agreeing on the alarms and trying to keep the alarms to a manageable quantity might be the hardest part of this project. Or would you want people to come up with their own alarms using the data posted?

Another problem is that this type of system seems to naturally grow. You don't find yourself eliminating variables/columns. How can it be kept to a relatively simple level but still useful?

Given the rate I'm adding to my own spreadsheets, my ability to evaluate very quickly is going to be seriously hampered very soon.

Also, given that quality control would be important, eventually it would be nice to have two handling one indicator so they could be checked against each other (or something like that.) Guess this is getting a bit ahead of things. KISS, KISS, KISS (gotta keep reminding myself).

[ChemEng]

I think that the best way to work it would be to have 1 common sets of decision tools--whatever they end up being. Im thinking that all that can probably be put into 1 excel workbook. (although size constraints may require posting them on here in a different form like pdf and working the workbook by email.) But any additional information that is worth tracking can also be kept, but separately from the decision tool as supplementary information.

Keeping it simple is definately a good idea. I think the first thing that has to happen is to develop a goal for the decision tool -- a purpose. Is it's goal to find opportunities for day to day trades to make? Weekly trades? Is it trying to maximize returns or minimize risk? Answering questions like this will help make sure that the tool is pointed sharply and serve as a good measuring stick to see if it fits in the decision tool or the supplementary information referenced above.

I have an idea about what I would like, but we need to make sure the collaborators are all pointed in the same direction.

[Spaf]

ayla,

The alarms are easy: 5% any one fund, 2% total portfolio.

We can use some indicators. Stockcharts.com has some great ones!

PS: You have already committed yourself....................:D


If you mean like one individual updating the RSI spread sheets and another the slow stochastics, and another moving averages/MACD, etc., yes I think I would be happy to participate. Would kinda like to know about what I might be getting myself into though before final commitment.

What I"m seeing with my own setup is a page I call the ALARMS. Most of the results on this sheet are either "TRUE/FALSE" or "buy/sell" or something that can make it easier to make a decision quickly or to see a trend quickly.

[Spaf]

Lets go for it!

Try it as a paper chase for a while, if it works.....great!

[nnuut]

Yeah! I'm with YA!
I can help with my knowledge of Oil Slick Stuff and Red Wine!!:cool:

[fabijo]

Yo, count me in! I'm always playing around with data within Excel. Every time I try to do a task, I learn a bunch of new Excel functions. So far, the best data set out there is the S&P 500, because they give you the day's open, close, high, and low price, plus the volume for every day since the 1950's.

I know the F Fund tracks Lehman's U.S. Bonds Composite Index, but I seem to remember the TSP site showing the F fund returns compared to a treasury note return ( I think it was the 3 month). Am I just making this up in my head? Now the TSP site shows the F Fund compared to the Lehman index.

As far as file format, we could post excel tests as a pdf. But if we are trying to analyze data, we'd need to share the Excel workbooks.

[fabijo]

The ultimate goal I hope to accomplish with this would be a standalone program that allows you to customize what criteria you are willing to trade into and out of the funds. And to allow you to backtest your criteria over different periods. The program may be a long way off, but all it takes is baby steps. The algorithms we are using in Excel could easily be put into any programming language.

[Buckeye]

ChemEng,
Speaking from an inexperienced newbie point of view, this spreadsheet you speak of sounds fantastic. I'm sure it would help me and other newer members/investors to make wiser decisions. Thank you for taking the initiative to attempt something that will help all. And thanks to everyone else for helping me learn as well. It seems the more I know, the more I realize how much I don't know. I don't bring much to the table at this time, but I support your idea 100% and I will do all I can to help if I can.

[VirginiaBob]

I am guessing many of us already have a spreadsheet going. Maybe we can discuss what we all have already and decide what we want in the combined spreadsheet.

[VirginiaBob]

I was also thinking we can incorporate one the indicators that shows how strong of a trend we are in such as ADX. But this may be getting too complicated.

[ChemEng]

Sorry for not putting anything up last night. I was working a plumbing issue. Fortunately, it looks like I will have it fixed this evening. Unfortunately, it looks like I will have to call in a plumber.

At any rate, I am talking with Tom about getting a separate sub-forum set up for this project so keep an eye out for it soon.

[mayday]

Sorry for not putting anything up last night. I was working a plumbing issue. Fortunately, it looks like I will have it fixed this evening. Unfortunately, it looks like I will have to call in a plumber.

At any rate, I am talking with Tom about getting a separate sub-forum set up for this project so keep an eye out for it soon.

Whats the problem I'm mister fix-it around here?

[ayla]

I was also thinking we can incorporate one the indicators that shows how strong of a trend we are in such as ADX. But this may be getting too complicated.


I have been searching for indexes or more indicators to assist in timing on a daily/weekly basis. The VIX seems to be a great indicator for me fo major downs and ups but I don't have one for the minor little fluctuations that occur daily or weekly except for the stochastics, etc.

I would like to know more about ADX or anything else. I looked ADX up on Yahoo and got something like "Adams Express company" or something like that. Must not be an equity or index. Hopefully this new subforum, once it is set up will be the type of thing that will help educate us where some of us have gaps.

I'm wondering about this idea, though. We all don't use the same system or strategy. Seems like how the indicators are displayed/calculated will be a reflection on a particular system ... maybe ChemEng's system since he/she thought of this. That would seem only fair and I don't mind helping but I don't want to spend a lot of time on something if it isn't part of my system.

Don't mean to sound contrary but just trying to spell out concerns or issues that will likely come up. Might as well try to get them resolved early..

p.s. Just thought of an idea to "enhance" the development of these indicators. Pardon me if someone has already said this but we could "compete" with multiple strategies. Anyone reading the subforum could review the different strategies and see how they compared.(I think Motley fool does this or at least they used to do this.) Part of the requirement for competition would be that the strategy would have to be publicly defined based on some type of logic and/or indicators and criteria that can be measured (even if it is the full moon).

Of course use of the same indicators would overlap for most of the strategies so I'm not disagreeing with the original premise of providing data... need to think on this a bit more.

[Ed]

Please keep me posted of your progress. I'm interested in your project and let me know how I can help, if possibile.

Ed

[ChemEng]

Just thought of an idea to "enhance" the development of these indicators. Pardon me if someone has already said this but we could "compete" with multiple strategies. Anyone reading the subforum could review the different strategies and see how they compared.(I think Motley fool does this or at least they used to do this.) Part of the requirement for competition would be that the strategy would have to be publicly defined based on some type of logic and/or indicators and criteria that can be measured (even if it is the full moon).

This sounds like a good idea, although its not really a competition as much as it is startegies informing other strategies. The sub-forum is set up for anyone to post progress of their anaytical decision making tools, not necessarily the community one that I am starting. Take advantage of the traffic and the knowledge these forums bring!

The subforum would be a great place for individual run threads similar to the account talk threads in the "Member Allocation Talk" where their decision making tools are discussed, refined, and worked. People can contribute with the community one when they want to or have the time, and can also post updates to their personal tools in their individual threads. Its definately not an exclusionary process.