Transfer 7/28 for 7/29/04

[tsptalk]

Going back to 75% S, 25% C before today's deadline which will be effectiveThursday morning.

[puertorico]

Tom I think if today is big time down.Would be the best time

to be in stock 100% to buy low and stay put in there

BECOUSE would be to low"stock"

" the euro is big time down for now bad to I-FUND TODAY"

good luck.:^

[puertorico]

MORNING CALL CNBC:shock:

OIL HIT 43 MARK...:s

tHat's the olnly think I worry about it:X

By other way look like the market is near bottom :D

[Rolo]

Tom's question continues to echo in my mind: Just how much is built into prices?

A lot of oil companies have increased profit margins and I wonder if part of that is in anticipation of rising oil costs, thereby leaving their stock prices intact.

VLCCF, TNPand SUN are up today, everything else is down, except ARO (a clothing retailer). NAT has me a little concerned since it has started following the Market rather than its sector, but its 10% yield makes it sooo lovable.

[tsptalk]

I'm watching 1078 on the S&P 500, Monday's low, and May's low of 1076. Any droptoday that stays above those numbers I look at as a gift (because I'm in the F fund today) after missing yesterday's rally.

[Rolo]

hehe, ya, I was just checkin' out the Wilshire 4500 (DWCP)lows, too, thinking 415 is "it". I am a bit surprised (should I be?) that today's black day is as large as yesterday's white day--i.e. dumping just about exactly yesterday's gains. What do you think of this wide price movement? I don't know what to think of it.

And I haven't checked volume...and I hate tohave to ask, again, where can I see index volume?

(baha...if I don't have an anyeurism by 60, I surely will have lost my mindby then...so, ya, time horizon.)

[tsptalk]

We could waffle around fora while down here. Check out May's lows. It took about 12 trading days before the rallycame off of the bottom. Volume seemed to have been heavier this morning but it seems to have lightned up. We are off our lows for the day right now with the Dow down only 40.

Volume for Nas and NYSE can be found herehttp://finance.yahoo.com/indices?u

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
Volume for Nas and NYSE can be found herehttp://finance.yahoo.com/indices?u


oooOOOOooooh....yeaaaaahhh..... It's on my links bar now. :)

So it looks like we only had an intraday SAAaaaaaAAAG; prices have gone back up. (except for my lolligagging satellite radio holdings...phooey)



Oh, wow, I see it: DWCP is behaving exactly like it did May 10-12. Let's see if tomorrow is a narrow trading range around 420.

[tsptalk]

Today was a very positive day. The buyers stepped up and didn't let Monday's low get taken out. Things are shaping up.

[puertorico]

sell-off means "rally"

Hope to see green today



what in the menu for monday ? 15 min

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote:
what in the menu for monday ?

More of the same for me.

[VictorPR]

Hello you guys......I have learned a great deal since I started reading this site and one thing that I have learned is that we must not panic when the market goes down, stand in your ground and do not start jumping in and out every other day, since it may only increase your losses. Also, diversified, I used to only go into one (1) fund (100%) and try to catch the "big numbers" I have learned that the key is to diversified and you eventually will get back what you have lost. Thanks to Tom and the rest of you.

[TSP-roulette]

Greetings Tom, due to the latest terror threats what will suggestions be for Tue. I can't do anything about Monday which just might bea bad day. With the highest level of security around the financial institutions, I wonder if things might just be ok as far as tomorrow is concerned.I am just looking for suggestions as to what everyone's plans are for Tue. Thanks Tom.

[Rod]

I may play it safe on Tuesday since it's too late to do anything about Monday.

But, itall depends on how the market reacts to the news tomorrow.

[tsptalk]

With the new terror threats and I hear Kerry jumped four points in the ratings,the market has reason to be under some pressure. How the market reacts may tell us something about the strength of this, what I call, the third phase of the bull market. It's supposed to be a time when bad news is shrugged off.

As I mentioned the other day, we may have to retest last Mondays's low before going higher. That couldget that bearish percent up to 40%. I also mentioned that any drops here would be good buying opportunities for anyone not still invested.

But always remember to stay within your comfort zone. Know your telerance levels for risk and volatility.

[shift_dawg]

I expect the dollar to drop, the I Fund is a good place to be right now.

[Mike]

http://usatoday.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=USATODAY.com+-+Poll%3A+No+boost+for+Kerry+after+convention&expir e=&urlID=11186062&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fhttp://www.usatoday.com%2Fnews%2Fpoliticselections%2Fnati on%2Fpresident%2F2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm&partnerID=1660]http://usatoday.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=USATODAY.com+-+Poll%3A+No+boost+for+Kerry+after+convention&expir e=&urlID=11186062&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fhttp://www.usatoday.com%2Fnews%2Fpoliticselections%2Fnati on%2Fpresident%2F2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm&partnerID=1660

USA Today/Gallup shows no bounce for Kerry. Even the Newsweek bounce of 4% is tiny. In other words, last week's political convention and its effect on the race are non-events.

The issues to focus on are oil prices and terror warnings.

[tsptalk]

shift_dawg wrote:
I expect the dollar to drop, the I Fund is a good place to be right now.
Welcome Dawg!

[tsptalk]

Mike wrote:
The issues to focus on are oil prices and terror warnings.

Agree Mike. Both are peaking now, in my opinion. Buy thefear? Since my indicators tell me to be bullish, I try to find the positive spin on everything right now. :)

[Mike]

I just hate it when I try copy-pasting links into here and they display like that... oh well. I'm too lazy to try to fix it more than once. :D

Tom, I just read an article which stated there aren't any really good deals in the stock market right now - and that most fund managers have fairly substantial cash holdings (20% or more in many cases). It went on to state that the best buying opportunities are likely to happen in late August/September. What's your opinion on all of that?

[puertorico]

september/october

That used to be the worse months ever

but we are in election year I just gonna be

caution those month that have the biggest down on history.;)



AUGUST,I be 100% stock

september/october 70 G 30 stock

[tsptalk]

Mike wrote:
I just hate it when I try copy-pasting links into here and they display like that... oh well. I'm too lazy to try to fix it more than once. :D

I saw a site called tinylink.com that is supposed to eliminate that. I was going to try it with some of those Yahoo quote links that can't be posted.


Tom, I just read an article which stated there aren't any really good deals in the stock market right now - and that most fund managers have fairly substantial cash holdings (20% or more in many cases). It went on to state that the best buying opportunities are likely to happen in late August/September. What's your opinion on all of that?
Since fund managers have rules about the limit of cash they can hold, it might be a "last one in is a rotten egg" buying frenzy. :) OK, maybe that's too optimistic. My real answer is earnings are growing an a rate not seen in years and stocks are flat to down over the last six to eight months. Add the fact that the economy is growing. I can't see them not buying. It's that wall of worry.

Tom

[Mike]

Maybe the fund managers are watching the investor sentiment surveys for stronger bear sentiment before they buy more shares. :P

[tsptalk]

Mike wrote:
Maybe the fund managers are watching the investor sentiment surveys for stronger bear sentiment before they buy more shares. :P
Only the smart ones. :)

[Rolo]

hehehehe...gold, Jerry.....gold!

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
hehehehe...gold, Jerry.....gold!
Thanks Bania.

[smine]

Tom said Sunday "It's supposed to be a time when bad news is shrugged off."
That looks like what happened today. More crying WOLF has left most people continuing whatever they were doing. Even though this threat was "more specific" than the last ones, what's a person to do? Carry on, Wall Street. Glad I have 66% in C/S; 34 in G.

[Mike]

Here's an AP article on yesterday's action (or lack thereof):


Stocks shake off terrorism fears
Seth Sutel, Associated Press
August 3, 2004 STOCK0803

NEW YORK -- Investors struggled Monday past concerns over the potential for a terrorist strike, sending stocks modestly higher after an upbeat earnings report from Procter & Gamble Co. and a positive reading on manufacturing activity.

Financial stocks were under pressure after the government warned over the weekend that terrorists could target U.S. financial institutions, including the New York Stock Exchange, Citigroup Inc., Prudential Financial Inc. and the World Bank.

But after spending much of the day in a slump, the main market indicators ended modestly higher after a late round of buying, repeating a now-familiar pattern.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 39.45 or 0.4 percent, at 10,179.16. It was the Dow's fifth-straight advance, its longest rally of the year and the first time since early December that it put together five consecutive winning sessions.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 4.90 or 0.4 percent to 1,106.62, and the Nasdaq composite index was up 4.73 or 0.3 percent to 1,892.09.

Bryan Piskorowski, a market analyst at Wachovia Securities based in Richmond, Va., attributed the late bounce to six weeks of an oversold market rather than a turnaround in sentiment.

"We toughed it out today," Piskorowski said. Despite the afternoon comeback, he said, trading volume was light, which shows some weakness. "You don't get much of a sense of conviction. ... It's hard to conjure up a scenario for an up, up and away August."

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's, said concerns about terrorism, along with high oil prices and uncertainty about the economy, have been part of what investors are calling Wall Street's "wall of worry."

"And it's not just everyday terrorism concerns. It's linked to the conventions, the Olympics," Stovall said. "How do you factor in an unknown event?"

[oneyoungbuck]

This section is for the Administrators comments on his TSP allocations and why he believes the market will do certain things (up or down). This is not for someone to write, should I say copy, an article out of the newspaper about the days action on the market. Have a little more respect for his ingenuity (Administrator) for he is the founder of this incredible website.