Transfer 7/26/ for 7/27/04

[tsptalk]

Going to 100% F fund during the Democratic Convention... just in case.

I will do some research to see when it might be best to go back to stocks after the convention. Maybe Friday or early next week.

[tsptalk]

We lost the opening gains a lot faster than I thought we would. Ugh!

[GTO1970]

I was amazed too! It wasn't even a good speed bump.

[DrD]

I'd be interested to see how jumping in and out compares with a long term strategy. I went 70% S, 20%I, 10% C in January when I did my annual rebalancing. I think that was and is still a pretty good call - and I think that with the lag in the TSP buy process, that you might miss the few big bump ups that make the year if you are bouncing in and out. So I intend to hold my course, and if things go down I look at them as buying opportunities for the dollar-cost averaging approach.

Thanks for the board - I try to read it frequently.



DrD

DrD wrote:
I'd be interested to see how jumping in and out compares with a long term strategy. I went 70% S, 20%I, 10% C in January when I did my annual rebalancing. I think that was and is still a pretty good call - and I think that with the lag in the TSP buy process, that you might miss the few big bump ups that make the year if you are bouncing in and out. So I intend to hold my course, and if things go down I look at them as buying opportunities for the dollar-cost averaging approach.

Thanks for the board - I try to read it frequently.



DrD

Hello DrD, welcome. As you can see with this chart, my system is beating the snot out of buy-and-hold strategies. This is all with only a few moves in and out.

"http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/mlk_mans_data.xls

Good luck!

[tsptalk]

Hi DrD -
Welcome. It seems to be a different strokes for different folks thing. I've had good years and less than good years trying to time the market but in the 4 1/2 years I have kept close track of my trades, I have beaten the market averages.

In there we had a bad bear market and a strong 2003. During the bear market I did have losing years but I did manage to do better than the market indices over that period. The key is to have a conservative bias during those bear markets and get very aggressive during the bull markets. Sure things always don't work out but I think if you play the risk / reward based on certain market indicators, it can pay off.

http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html

Thanks for joining us,
Tom

[Rolo]

Welcome, DrD!

[Rolo]

GTO1970 wrote:
I was amazed too! It wasn't even a good speed bump.
baha!

Yeah, when I first saw my gains 20 minutes after the open, I thought, "Oh, this isn't going to last at all."

It's a good thing Scottrade doesn't have a "Sell all holdings" button; I probably would have used it during that speed bump. :D

[GTO1970]

Rolo

I like to know more about this Scottrade thing.

Maybe pull a loan out of G. P. TSP and reinvest it

what u :i

GTO

[tsptalk]

Was there any doubt what would happen in the market today, the day I head for safety? :X It seems like literally a relief rally. Relief that nothing happened at the convention last might.

[Rod]

Don't feel so bad... I'll be 100% F tomorrow along with you. But If I were you, I wouldn't jumpback injust yet.

Who know's what the end of the day may look like.

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote:
Was there any doubt what would happen in the market today, the day I head for safety? :X It seems like literally a relief rally. Relief that nothing happened at the convention last might.
I described my recent move as "hiding during the Democratic Convention." Now I'd like to hide under a rock. Stocks up, bond down.

I told you I'd be a good contrarian indicator. I capitulated at the height of fear and we rebounded. Not too surprising. Frustrating as hell, but not surprising. We may reverse back down tomorrow, we may not. But the long awaited bottom is close at hand.

[tsptalk]

Remember my bull market discipline of staying at least 60 to 70% in stocks no matter what this summer? It would have been nice if Ididn't abondon it today... of all days. :dah:

[Rod]

Don't be so hard on yourself, Tom.:)

I just hope it doesn't do the same thing tomorrow since I'll be in F. hehe:P

[tsptalk]

I don't care about me so much as the people who follow my moves.

[Rod]

Oh well, they do follow at their own risk.

[Rolo]

GTO1970 wrote:
I like to know more about this Scottrade thing.

Maybe pull a loan out of G. P. TSP and reinvest it

Check out their site and read about trading stocks; they have a "Scottrade U." Morningstar also has good primers. There are bajiddles of sites that teach the basics.

I firmly do not believe in borrowing your own money.

tsptalk wrote:
I described my recent move as "hiding during the Democratic Convention." Now I'd like to hide under a rock.

Bahaha! Poor guy. Perhaps the "I'm going against my plan" isn't a good idea?

tsptalk wrote:
I don't care about me so much as the people who follow my moves.

It is our money and we are responsible for it. Period.

(I loathe that brokers were sued purely on the premise that a person lost money,especially whenthat a person takes a big risk out of greed, then sues the broker because they did not hit the "jackpot".)

Besides...I would be more concerned that I were making Az's case for him. :D

[fuzzduzz]

I think today was more of an oversold bounce than a new leg up. Volume was light. The internals have been horrible lately (up vs down volume, new highs vs new lows) etc... I think this will be a good shortable bounce (I'm already short the market :x)

We'll see if we any follow thru during the rest of the week :%

[Pete1]

Tom, don't sweat it. You still have a couple of days in the F fund and the way that rallies have been gobbled up lately, you may still end up ahead by Friday. :)

[GS083]

I feel sick, my 100% G transfer was effective this morning. I was 80 S 20 I.Any other time it takes them two days to process.I just changed back 60G 40 S

[tsptalk]

I think today was more of an oversold bounce than a new leg up. Volume was light. The internals have been horrible lately (up vs down volume, new highs vs new lows) etc... I think this will be a good shortable bounce
I wouldn't say the volume wasn't light. There have only been 3 heavier days since early May on the NYSE.You may be right about it being a shortable bounce but that remains to be seen.


We'll see if we any follow thru during the rest of the week
Exactly. Follow through on high volume will be the tell.

[tsptalk]

Pete1 wrote:
Tom, don't sweat it. You still have a couple of days in the F fund and the way that rallies have been gobbled up lately, you may still end up ahead by Friday. :)
Thanks Pete.It's tough to be out of the market and root for a rebound but that's where I am.I don't want to see new lows but I sure don't want the market to take off without me.:*

[$hunter]

I'm fairly new but have read the post daily for a couple of months. I've developed a highly scientific new strategy based on recent observations. I'm going to follow Tom's moves by waiting one day. Just kidding. Keep up the good work. Great site. Learning a lot.

[tsptalk]

$hunter wrote:
I'm going to follow Tom's moves by waiting one day.
Me too. :)

[Mike]

Here is an AP article that might be of interest to those with their eyes on interest rates / yields:

Rates on short-term T-bills rise
http://www.twincities.com/images/common/spacer.gif


WASHINGTON — Interest rates on short-term Treasury bills rose in Monday's auction to the highest level since 2002.

The Treasury Department auctioned $18 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 1.425 percent. Another $16 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 1.735 percent.

The three-month rate was up from 1.330 percent last week and was the highest since three-month bills averaged 1.550 percent on Oct. 28, 2002. The six-month rate was up from 1.650 percent last week and was the highest since 1.765 percent on June 24, 2002.

The new discount rates understate the actual return to investors — 1.449 percent for three-month bills with a $10,000 bill selling for $9,964.00 and 1.774 percent for a six-month bill selling for $9,912.30.

In a separate report, the Federal Reserve said Monday that the average yield for one-year Treasury bills, a popular index for making changes in adjustable-rate mortgages, rose to 2.12 percent last week from 2.07 percent the previous week.

[EddieC]

If choosing to use market timing, I believe you and your readers wouldgreatly benefit fromthe FREE "mechanical"market timing tools for the U.S. Stock and Bond market (Applicable to Funds C, S,...and F) available at http://www.fundadvice.com.

The FREE Market Timing tools are explained in detail andwill surely be of more service thanguessing:shock:. Not to mention the website provides a lotmore FREE information and advice on retirement, allocations, etc. Definitely worth reading!

[Rolo]

$hunter wrote:
I've developed a highly scientific new strategy based on recent observations. I'm going to follow Tom's moves by waiting one day. Just kidding.
heheyaha! That's funny, because there is truth to it. I know I have prevented myself from bungling trades by "sleeping on it" and after which, decided that my idea was hare-brained.

At least you didn't suggest an "Inverse Tom Fund". :D

(hehehe...hey! If you can't laugh at yourself....then laugh at other people!)



In other boneheaded news...

Tip Of The Day: Do not forget about your open sell limit orders.

I have been expecting my WBSN to start another run-up for a month now. My target price was $40 with the possibility of raising it to $42. I got a little pessimistic during this dip and changed my target price to $36. I forgot all about it as I read WBSN's stellar earnings report last night and expected today to be quite awesometastic.

It opened at $35.81 (just two days ago it was $30.01) with a high of $38.28. I was enjoying my 16% gain today untilI noticed "SOLD WBSN $36.00" under "Today's executions". D'OH! oh....oh.... (birds fly away)

I really wanted to hold WBSN for a few months to $42-$44. Now what do I do? :? Will it digest and correct or will it run away without me? I hate these prickly snafus.