ask tom

[bluesrogie]

boy am i new at this !!!! cant find my way around at all but maybee thats bcause im a caveman with these newfangled gagets i guess a thread is a question ??? trying to ask tom when i go to tsp talk website and click for update on funds which gives me the market thats related to each fund for the i shares it gives 2 amex efa and amx agg what is the differance between them and do they both effect ishares and if so are they averaged together or what whew i did all that with 1 finger thanx caveman:confused:

[tsptalk]

Welcome bluerogie!

EFA is used for the I fund.
AGG is the F fund.

See the charts at the bottom of this page...

Tom

[bluesrogie]

then how come they both say ishares at the top

[Show-me]

Ishare is a company name brand.

http://www.ishares.com/splash.jhtml?c=M41AB&CID=KNC-Google&HBX_PK=ishare&HBX_OU=50&_requestid=28612&_requestid=28612

:D

[bluesrogie]

thnx 4 info is it important 2 put in profile and allocations?

[Show-me]

Profile just tells other people about you. You may not want that information out for everyone to veiw. It is a personal choice as is posting your allocation. You may want to jump right in or sit back a watch how everyone else is doing it. No matter what you do good luck!

[swsop]

Hay Tom;

I see the number of guest on line keep getting larger every day; they now out number the members on line at any given time. Now what does that tell you? They like what they see and read for free.

Swsop :) :)

[tsptalk]

Actually.... a lot of those guests are search engine spiders snooping around.

[GGal]

Actually.... a lot of those guests are search engine spiders snooping around.

Tom,

What's a search engine spider, and what are they snooping for?

Thanks
GA

[Oldcoin]

I don't like the idea of spiders crawling around on this site! :worried:

I’m with you Paladin, I couldn’t make it through the first 20 minutes of Arachnophobia :D

[ChemEng]

Tom,

What's a search engine spider, and what are they snooping for?

Thanks
GA

A search engine spider is a tool that search engines like Google and Yahoo use to harvest keyword data for different websites. Based on the results of the analysis of that data, the associated website will either be higher or lower on searches for those keywords based on their magical search algorithms. Im pretty sure that they are also used to make the recommendations for what each pages adsense ad will be as well.

Hope that helps...

[tsptalk]

If you ever wondered how you can type in something like "TSP" into Google and get 16 million hits back in .06 seconds, it's the spiders that are constantly gathering the info. They are crawling here and every site on the web.

[GUCHI]

tom

can someone post a house for sale under the classified thread ????

[tsptalk]

Sure. And I'll only charge a 5% commission. :D - kidding.

[tsptalk]

There are a lot of threads in the I fund forums and anyone can start one. 350 started his own to discuss his take. As long as it is active, I guess it's OK, although I see where it can be confusing. But it is fine.

[mlk_man]

Hey Tom,

Pear is to apple as potato is to?
Banana
Radish
Strawberry
Peach
Lettuce

[ATCJeff]

Hey Tom,

Pear is to apple as potato is to?

Banana
Radish
Strawberry
Peach
Lettuce

2. Radish:D

[weatherweenie]

Where's the 5/8 commentary?

[tsptalk]

It's there. Try going to www.tsptalk.com/comments.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html) and hold down the ctrl-key and hit the browser's refresh button at the same time. That will bypass your system's cache of the old comments.

[mlk_man]

2. Radish:D

Very good Tom!! :p

[SkiUtah]

Tom, enjoyed you comments today... and the EbbTracker incorporates the near full and full moons into his charts, his track record is pretty remarkable...

[Spaf]

erichschuette,
Don't tell Ebb, but he has been doing so good I enclude him in with the "Tribes". Shuuuuu!..... now don't tell Ebb lest he get the big head...:D


Tom, enjoyed you comments today... and the EbbTracker incorporates the near full and full moons into his charts, his track record is pretty remarkable...

[tsptalk]

No. You can't delete your own posts. I don't think that was ever allowed.

[tsptalk]

Are you sure? This comes from the FAQ and I'm sure that I deleted one of my own posts not that long ago.
I'm almost certain. Moderators have the permission to delete posts but I don't recall ever having it set so that anyone can delete a post, but I won't swear to it :D - Although it is true that it can be set that way.

Does anyone else remember having the ability to delete a post?

[Spaf]

Are you sure? This comes from the FAQ and I'm sure that I deleted one of my own posts not that long ago.

If you have registered, you will be able to edit and delete your posts. Note that the administrator can disable this ability as he desires. Your ability to edit your posts may also be time-limited, depending on how the administrator has set up the forum.

To edit or delete your posts, click the http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/buttons/edit.gif button by the post you want to edit. If your post was the first in the thread, then deleting the post may result in the removal of the entire thread.

Paladin,

Sorry, only the administrator or moderator(s) can delete posts/theads!

We have to be very careful with that function, because vBulletin does not have a archive. So when it's physically removed, it's a gone duck!

If it is your own post, PM a moderator, we'll work with ya!.......:cheesy:

[nnuut]

Are you sure? This comes from the FAQ and I'm sure that I deleted one of my own posts not that long ago.

If you have registered, you will be able to edit and delete your posts. Note that the administrator can disable this ability as he desires. Your ability to edit your posts may also be time-limited, depending on how the administrator has set up the forum.

To edit or delete your posts, click the http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/buttons/edit.gif button by the post you want to edit. If your post was the first in the thread, then deleting the post may result in the removal of the entire thread.
Paladin, I can't Edit or Delete in this thread myself because I don't have permissions.

[Spaf]

Paladin,

Wierd things happen!

When Tom first got this edition of vBulletin I was able to cross over to vBulletin. Scared the ^%$# out of me! It was like being in the Twi-light Zone!

So I've gotton use to ghost too! vBulletin is the same as Stargate!...:D If I find your "delete button" I'll save it for Ya!....:cheesy:

[tsptalk]

Still, I'm POSITIVE that I've hit the delete button before, otherwise why would I be missing it now? :confused: I remember that it appeared as soon as I hit the Edit button...
That's where it would be so I believe you. I must have had it temporarily active.

I have a ghost in my house, a lady wearing a long white nightgown that floats in the air. My wife and son have both seen her on separate occasions, but not me. Then last week our neighbor said that he saw her once down at the end of our driveway. I love ghosts, they don't scare me none!
Cool!

[ebbnflow]

OFF TOPIC: I have a ghost in my house, a lady wearing a long white nightgown that floats in the air. My wife and son have both seen her on separate occasions, but not me. Then last week our neighbor said that he saw her once down at the end of our driveway. I love ghosts, they don't scare me none!

After my father died and a couple hours later, I heard the loudest thud I've heard all year (like something real heavy fell on the floor). I checked everywhere to see what happened. Found nothing. A day later, my nephew living about an hour from us told his mother he heard a loud crashing noise. He checked their basement, every room in the house and found nothing amiss. Has anyone experienced the same thing? :eek:

[Tempest]

Stuff happens

[Spaf]

Stuff happens

Yes, but we might not know it. I was studying for a mininistry in 1985 when my Dad died. I didn't known it, but he left at at a time that I could best say thanks for being my Dad. As a ship sails to a foreign port, we wave goodby!

[Tempest]

Yes, but we might not know it. I was studying for a mininistry in 1985 when my Dad died. I didn't known it, but he left at at a time that I could best say thanks for being my Dad. As a ship sails to a foreign port, we wave goodby!

Actually I edited my post-had a long story. But deleted it.
Yes strange things to happen.

[wv-girl]

After my father died and a couple hours later, I heard the loudest thud I've heard all year (like something real heavy fell on the floor). I checked everywhere to see what happened. Found nothing. A day later, my nephew living about an hour from us told his mother he heard a loud crashing noise. He checked their basement, every room in the house and found nothing amiss. Has anyone experienced the same thing? :eek:


Yes, when my Mom passed it was sudden and I wasn't with her, but I heard her voice telling me goodbye and that she was fine but that it was her time to go. I asked her to wait and I would go with her, but she said it wasn't my time, just hers. Not more than a few minutes later, I got the phone call. :(

[SkyPilot]

The last couple of days my Grandmother was with us, she began to speak of a "train" that was coming for her.

In the middle of the afternoon, while my mother and sister were running some errands and were on their way back to the hospice, heard a train whistle going through the city... (fairly uncommon during the day) and found that Grandmother had passed when they returned...

When they heard the whistle they "felt" that she had passed on...

This Train is bound for Glory, This Train..... :)

[marga]

I have the problem that my automated IFT didn't go through yesterday and TSP can't give me the time it went through til Monday close of business. They say the automated system is updated close of business for being able to retrieve time of request. Oh brother.

[tsptalk]

I pity the trackers trying to figure this mess out today. Many people intended and tried to do IFTs but were unable to access their accounts either through the TSP website or via the thriftline due to security updates being implemented. After trying for 45 minutes, mine finally went through at 11:55 am. Other people were not as lucky. Is there anything we can do to make the trackers' job easier for today?
Since we don't compare actual transactions to the ones reported here, simply post your transaction here as you would have liked to have done, regardless of whether TSP was able to process your transaction. We don't want your return to suffer in our "game" because TSP had technical problems.

[EW_ret]

I waited until 11:45 pm to attempt a IFT. I could not complete the transaction online or through the Thriftline. They had major problems today with the new security acknowledgement process. The problems cleared up at 12:07 pm ET and I could complete the IFT online, but it was too late for today. I have never had a problem with Thriftline until today. Even last week when the new passwords were implemented, the Thriftline worked. I guess they were just overwhelmed on the telephone circuits.

[FUTURESTRADER]

I have the problem that my automated IFT didn't go through yesterday and TSP can't give me the time it went through til Monday close of business. They say the automated system is updated close of business for being able to retrieve time of request. Oh brother.

hmmm...maybe I did 'confirm' yesterday but 'the system' failed??

[wht00ss]

Tom do you use the ECRI's weekly leading index in any of your commentary/forecasting??

thanks

white

[tsptalk]

white-
I was actually just reading the Kirk Report you linked to that talked about it. I do not use it but I will now look into it.

Thanks!

[ucanbreached]

In the TSP calculater spreadsheet, what does the below actually mean.

A positive number indicates your
return > other allocation.
- A negative number indicates your
return < other allocation.

What is other allocation? In addition does this tool take into account that you may have sold high/low and bought low/high respectively?

[tsptalk]

It's comparing your return the different TSP funds. If you are up 5&#37; and the G fund is up 3%, it will show you a positve 2% as you are beating the G fund by 2%.

If your return is 2%, then it would show you a -1% as your return is behind the G fund by 1%.

Hope that helps.

[tsptalk]

You're the 2nd to ask today so here ya go...

I'll also post it on the comments page before the end of the week. There's a lot of green in early July. Mid-July is another story.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/seasonality_july.gif

[wht00ss]

You may or may not have answered this question but I'm sure it has been presented to you in some form or another.

When looking at performance to date the I fund ranks significantly higher than alot of the participants who actively manage their TSP accounts.

Since your board has been around and tracking IFT changes how have the numbers matched up when comparing the managed accounts to the indices? In other words, have the majority of actively managed accounts outperformed say for example just leaving you money in the C fund and have you determined from the empirical evidence that it makes sense to actively manage accounts not because of the psychology of feeling in control but evidence that their is on average a better performance rate than a passively managed account?

Just curious your take on this
.

thanks

white :)

[tsptalk]

According to Rokid's tallies, about 1/3 of the members being tracked have beaten the C fund over the last 2 years. My longer-term account has but not my active account.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=104887&postcount=29

[pyriel]

Can you pls show us the seasonality for August. TY

[tsptalk]

Can you pls show us the seasonality for August. TY
August (http://www.tsptalk.com/images/seasonality_august.gif)

[wht00ss]

okay Tom what's the game plan for today?? Sit tight on the S or are we looking at a dead cat bounce and time to reduce the stress level on the sidelines?? ;)

white

[tsptalk]

The market is way oversold. Still looking for a rally. Maybe this afternoon into Monday? If not, we could be in trouble. sentimentrader.com had this to say about a gap down after a lopsided down day...

If the futures hold somewhere around where they are now, with a negative gap down of about 0.25&#37;, then I can find four other precedents for that kind of gap following a 10-to-1 negative breadth day like we had yesterday.

Since the introduction of the futures markets (which more clearly show gap openings than the cash indices), the following table highlights the S&P's performance going forward, from that day's open:

Date..........Open to Close..........1 Day Later..........5 Days Later..........1 Month Later
10/19/87...(25.1%).....................(19.6%).......... ......(18.1%)....................(9.8%)
10/16/89...+6.2%.......................+6.0%............ .......+7.3%......................+4.7%
03/11/96...+1.9%.......................+1.2%............ .......+5.2%......................+1.0%
10/28/97...+6.9%.......................+6.9%............ .......+8.9%......................+10.4%

[James48843]

Since the introduction of the futures markets (which more clearly show gap openings than the cash indices), the following table highlights the S&P's performance going forward, from that day's open:

Date..........Open to Close..........1 Day Later..........5 Days Later..........1 Month Later
10/19/87...(25.1&#37;).....................(19.6%).......... ......(18.1%)....................(9.8%)
10/16/89...+6.2%.......................+6.0%............ .......+7.3%......................+4.7%
03/11/96...+1.9%.......................+1.2%............ .......+5.2%......................+1.0%
10/28/97...+6.9%.......................+6.9%............ .......+8.9%......................+10.4%

7/27/07 ...-1.6% ................?......................... ?..................... ?


Now I know how the porcipine feels when we wants to lick his wounds......

[tsptalk]

Historical data is great, isn't it. It always seems so clean.

That data tells us we did not crash like '87, but we didn't get a bounce like the other 3 times. Can't we get some consistancy around here? :D

[nnuut]

Yea, I'm really pissed at my stupidity!:embarrest:

[McDuck]

Yea, I'm really pissed at my stupidity!:embarrest:
Me too !

[nnuut]

Tanks

[vectorman]

Tom where do you get the ideas for your TSP Poll questions? When we participant do you get paid? Thanks

[tsptalk]

Tom where do you get the ideas for your TSP Poll questions? When we participant do you get paid? Thanks
No, I don't get paid. It's just usually something I have recently saw on the news, or read about, been thinking about, etc.

[MADDOG]

No, I don't get paid. It's just usually something I have recently saw on the news, or read about, been thinking about, etc.
we used to do the same thing;
some questoins made you think;
IF YOU AND YOUR WIFE CHECKED INTO A MOTEL
AND THERE WERE ONLY TWO DOUBLE / TWIN BEDS
WOULD YOU USE BOTH OF THEM
OR WOULD YOU ONE ONE?

[budnipper1]

we used to do the same thing;
some questoins made you think;
IF YOU AND YOUR WIFE CHECKED INTO A MOTEL
AND THERE WERE ONLY TWO DOUBLE / TWIN BEDS
WOULD YOU USE BOTH OF THEM
OR WOULD YOU ONE ONE?

Well, that depends on whether we were in the same motel or different motels...:D

[McDuck]

Tom said > I have the worst market instincts in the world

Tom, Didn't beat yourself up. I still think you're a good guy!

[tsptalk]

Sure - It will be in Monday's comments.

[Removed1]

Hello Tom,
As I post on EBB thread,I think the pay pal button should be on the home page so anyone who wants to contribute to TSPTALK,EBB has the way to do it I think many people will.My husband suggests that you can ask people who get to this web site should click on the ads so you can get credit for that.Thanks for replying to me last time,I have known this site about 10 months I don't know anything about Rev Shark,if I don't know anything about his investing style I hesistate to sucribe..that is one of disadvantages of charging you only get limited number of subcriptions to people already know him.You still get the revenue from the ads and still have pay pal contribution.Thx

[Show-me]

Hello Ebb,James,Showme and Nutt,
After reading all the definitions of Ebb that James provided I fell off the chair!!!
it is so halarious.Thanks to all of you for the contribution to this board,it cheers me up on my down days because not listening to EBB,I learned costly lessons.Last week one day I saw pay pal button on home page,I clicked on,see registration page..then one of my patients called,I had to get off..for few minutes,then that pay pal button disapeared,anyone knew what was happenning??? maybe TOm knows.Thx.
I think the pay pal button should be on the home page if anyone wants to contribute to EBB and I think that many people do.

We got great people on here!

Zimmy,

I'm not sure, but I will PM Tom or better yet I can ask it on the Ask Tom Thread. I know he has rearrange the homepage to make it easier navigate. Ill copy it over there and provide a link here. :D http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=112018#post112018

[Show-me]

Don't freak out, I copied both of your post here Zimmy. :D

[tsptalk]

Don't freak out, I copied both of your post here Zimmy. :D
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=114882#post114882

[McDuck]

Tom, You said this morning "moving the stop loss up for this trade to ensure a profit."

For those of us in Rio Linda, what does that mean?

[tsptalk]

Tom, You said this morning "moving the stop loss up for this trade to ensure a profit."

For those of us in Rio Linda, what does that mean?

Trader Fred's F-fund trade bought in at 11.37. The old stop loss was 11.31. He is moving that to 11.39 so as to not take a loss if for some reason the bond market starts to head down to that level without getting a sell signal first. System Stop Loss Analysis (http://www.tsptalk.com/system/stops)

[tsptalk]

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/seasonality_october.gif

[Spaf]

Ask Tom,
Question: RE: Inverse Funds/Forward indicators.
I know that there are a lot of funds that react opposite to other funds.
i.e., Rates go up, bonds go down. Dollar goes down, Gold goes up!
What are some other funds relative to TSP funds that we might watch??
Are any of the funds kind of forward indicators?
Spaf

[tsptalk]

Euphoria peaks, stocks go down. Fear peaks, stocks go up.

But serious, I'll have to think about that.

[James48843]

Attention all who tried to sign up today-

We are still having some issues.

Tom has written a brief info piece at this web address:

http://www.tsptalk.com/problems.doc

Ocean is aware of the problem with the autotracker too, and is working the issue.

Sorry- we'll try and keep everyone updated as best we can.

Thank you for waiting- we're trying to get it right.....

[cap32]

No worries here I'll wait until every thing smothers out:D

[James48843]

OK- update- as of 7:41 pm.

Ocean has the Autotracker fixed. It works now.

We still don't have today's fund prices fixed.


As for the premium service issues, Tom is still working it.

Please stand by.....

[James48843]

Tom has posted that things are working now.

Here is Tom's latest message, from the "problems.doc" link above. You can go there and get additional details.

Anyway- here is what Tom just posted a short time ago:
**************************************************
UPDATE: 10/01/07 – 8:30 PM ET

It looks like we are good to go. . You can try again to use credit cards.
All credit cards that were processed before this post (8:30 PM ET) have been voided."

**************************************************

[mait13]

Two questions

1. Does the G fund just keep going up until it is $30 or more and pays a penny?
2. What happens to the dividends paid to the stock funds?

[James48843]

Two questions

1. Does the G fund just keep going up until it is $30 or more and pays a penny?

answer: yes, the g fund just continues to pay, there is no upper limit. It is investing in government fixed rate funds- so it will pay a market based interest rate payout with no chance of going down. The payout is now very low historically speaking. In the 80's and early 90's, it paid about 8% per year. right now that is down around the 4% per year mark, meaing it will pay a penny about once every 6.72 days. This month the penny should be paying on thursdays.



2. What happens to the dividends paid to the stock funds?

Answer: they are rolled into fund value price as they are paid out, so we never see a seperate line item for dividends.

[James48843]

Tom-

Several people have asked this in several threads.


http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=120668&postcount=1850

Do you have an answer yet?

Thanks

Jim

[SkiUtah]

TOM, You give the time to make the change, but not the date....
If I make an interfund transfer today, Fri, after noon, it should be processed and in effect for Tues.... correct.
********
Note from Tom:
If you are planning on making an interfund transfer in the near future, the TSP had this posted on their website:

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/100507c.gif

I believe that means if you want to make a transfer that will be effective on Tuesday of next week, it has to be done between 12 noon ET and possibly 4 PM ET (I'm not certain of the latter time). The market is open Monday, but the TSP does not process transactions because of the Federal holiday.

[MADDOG]

tom;

where can i find all the months seasonality charts
maybe you could put them where everyone can access them

maddog

[tsptalk]

Maddog - I just post the current chart on the comments page. They are "loaned" from sentimentrader.com who let's me use their data as long as I don't abuse the priviledge.

I would highly recommend sentimentrader.com - they have hundreds of fascinating charts on their sites. They do cost $19.95/mo though :eek: :).

[Milson]

Actually.... a lot of those guests are search engine spiders snooping around.
Been a lurker for over a year now. Had to request my password be reset to log on. Seems my last official visit was 09-18-2006 according to the welcome message at the top right corner of this window, but I read your market comment almost daily. I didn't write down the exact number but I find it very unlikely that 250+ guests being reported currently are spiders. I'll check again tomorrow and be even more doubtful that many spiders would be checking us out daily.

Although I may be wrong. :confused:

[Show-me]

Milson,

Welcome to the mb!

[Show-me]

Or maybe they will do nothing and take their chance that some will not use any s/l. That would be better than paying everyone. I plan to get the full benefit.

[nnuut]

Been a lurker for over a year now. Had to request my password be reset to log on. Seems my last official visit was 09-18-2006 according to the welcome message at the top right corner of this window, but I read your market comment almost daily. I didn't write down the exact number but I find it very unlikely that 250+ guests being reported currently are spiders. I'll check again tomorrow and be even more doubtful that many spiders would be checking us out daily.

Although I may be wrong. :confused:
What? be more explicit and we may be able to answer your question.
And welcome to our Message Board!!:D By the way, we don't count spiders!!

[Milson]

What? be more explicit and we may be able to answer your question.
And welcome to our Message Board!!:D By the way, we don't count spiders!!

Thanks for the warm welcome, I wasn't really asking a question but rather pointing out that few if any of the guests reported visiting the site on a daily basis would actually be spiders. Give yourself credit where credit is due Tom :D I can personally verify that at least one guest each day was actually a guest aka me :cheesy:

Perhaps this will inspire the other 'Lurkers' to stand up and be counted.

[FUTURESTRADER]

Tom,

Is it possible to put at least the L2040 YTD return back on your "Returns" page?

[tsptalk]

Tom,

Is it possible to put at least the L2040 YTD return back on your "Returns" page?
Yes. I think I know what you are talking about. I'll add it to my to do list.

[FUTURESTRADER]

Yes. I think I know what you are talking about. I'll add it to my to do list.

Probably can disregard this, as the L funds are tracked quite adequately in the new automated tracker. I suppose your 'returns' page may go away as well, though it is more convenient in that format.

[tsptalk]

True - but I'll leave that page there for those who don't have a login in to the autotracker.

[camper65]

Tom, Is there some reason why the thread concerning IFT's (Fees) is no longer there?.
As we are approcing an election year and half the senators (Congress) are at risk, seems as though this would be the time to make some noise! And,, just for my own information, is there any documentation about the board meetings and there discussion of IFT Fees?

[FUTURESTRADER]

YAY...L2040 performance is back..thanks Tom. I consider L2040 and 20% Split as benchmark strategies.

[tsptalk]

Tom, Is there some reason why the thread concerning IFT's (Fees) is no longer there?.
As we are approcing an election year and half the senators (Congress) are at risk, seems as though this would be the time to make some noise! And,, just for my own information, is there any documentation about the board meetings and there discussion of IFT Fees?
I don't remember deleting it. It should be around somewhere.

[TSP-roulette]

Tom: I joined the TSP.talk about 3 year ago. I rarely post, just don't have time as my job keeps me outdoors 10 hours/day. I do subscribe to Ebb's system, but just have enough time to make quick transfers before 12:00 noon before heading out to the great outdoors. My question: Has the 2 transfer/month rule been officially implemented, are we right now limited to this. I notice members still making daily tranfers. I follow Ebb, he still makes changes regularly. Just a bit confused; as I mentioned, I have no access to internet out in the field.

[Rod]

I'll jump in and answer in case Tom is busy.

From my understanding, it will not be implemented until Mar or Apr of 2008.

-Rod

[Sunnyskies]

We have windows on either side of our bed. The window on my side is in the backyard, behind the fence and close to the gate. I always had an uneasy feeling about that window and was afraid a burglar would come through it someday. I had this feeling for over 5 years.

One night, in the wee hours, someone knocked on that window!! I was petrified and hubby crawled over the top of me to get to the window while I was begging him to duck down for safety. He pulled the curtain back and his mom was there. My first thought was that someone had died, like her husband, or hubby's brother. I ran out to the drive as she came out of the backyard and she told me my Dad had died. Dad's wife had called her and asked her to tell me. She knew which side of the bed I slept on, and thought that she could wake me without distrurbing Steve -- huh??

We invited them in (FIL was with her) and as we sat talking, my Dad's mantel clock which hadn't run in years, chimed and a few minutes later the plastic sheet in my kitchen light hit the floor and broke. It was truly spooky. He died in Oregon, thousands of miles away. Anyway, my fear of the window vanished that night and I even open it at night now and again. The clock never chimed again.

Yep, they're out there!

[Frozen]

Tom (or anyone), I am in Alaska with a 4 hour delay from EST, and have wondered what the zone is for which the times are listed for the posts on this forum. It would also be helpful not to post "today" and "yesterday", as this is often misleading given the various time zones and, importantly, the trading cutoff time for TSP.

[James48843]

Tom (or anyone), I am in Alaska with a 4 hour delay from EST, and have wondered what the zone is for which the times are listed for the posts on this forum. It would also be helpful not to post "today" and "yesterday", as this is often misleading given the various time zones and, importantly, the trading cutoff time for TSP.

In your "user control panel" there is a button for "Edit Options".

There in your profile, you will find an option to edit your date and time that is displayed.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/profile.php?do=editoptions

Set it at YOUR time zone, and it will display the messages in YOUR time.

[James48843]

Here is what that panel looks like:


3088

[tom1tom1]

Thanks, that is very helpful

[tom1tom1]

Nice to have the correct date & time for Mt. time zone

[tsptalk]

Tom (or anyone), I am in Alaska with a 4 hour delay from EST, and have wondered what the zone is for which the times are listed for the posts on this forum. It would also be helpful not to post "today" and "yesterday", as this is often misleading given the various time zones and, importantly, the trading cutoff time for TSP.
I hope bullishreturn's response helps. That's what I would have said. But I know what you mean. I guess "yesterday", "today", "tomorrow" are all relative depending on when you read it. :)

[Scout333]

Tom, Just a quick question re the TSPTalk Polls. When I attempt to respond I get a message that I have already answered when this is the first time I attempted to respond to this particular poll. Then I get a message saying that my response will not be counted?

[tom1tom1]

You think the premium services will stay the same if the interfund transfers are limited to 2 a month?

[tom1tom1]

I would think it would be a negative for that system

[tsptalk]

Tom, Just a quick question re the TSPTalk Polls. When I attempt to respond I get a message that I have already answered when this is the first time I attempted to respond to this particular poll. Then I get a message saying that my response will not be counted?
I would think it is a cookie setting on your system. Try deleting your cookies then responding in a new window. Also try holding down the ctrl-key and hitting the browser's refresh button at the same time. It will clear your system's cache.

[tsptalk]

You think the premium services will stay the same if the interfund transfers are limited to 2 a month?
They [the systems] are making adjustments. FYI, the system that made the largest gain in 2007 was the sentiment survey, and it made only 16 transfers all year. I don't know how it will turn out, but I still believe the systems will be able to beat the market with 24 trades a year if it comes to that. they will just have to approach things from a different time frame.

They will also continue to post the old active moves for those using IRA and personal accounts to trade the SPY, VXF, AGG, and EFA.

[McDuck]

Tom, What do you think about being in the F-fund at this time?

[tsptalk]

Tom, What do you think about being in the F-fund at this time?
Looks a little overextended, and with rate cuts priced in, we could see a short-term pullback. But if we are in fact going to see a recession it should be a part of any diversified account looking out more than a couple of weeks.

[Timmie-O]

You think the premium services will stay the same if the interfund transfers are limited to 2 a month?

I received a Special Interfund Transfer Warning letter dated Jan 24, 2008. It said I was identified a frequent trader in the TSP (1 of 3,000). Unless you reduce your trading activity to no more than three IFT's per month we may require you to request IFT's by mail only.
So, is three the magic number now. I plan to stick to three per month.

[tsptalk]

I don't think they even know at this point. 2, 3, 2 plus unlimted G, ????

[wlee]

It is confusing. This came from the TSP web site.


the Agency likely will amend its regulations (via a separate publication in the Federal Register) to permit two interfund transfers (account rebalancings) per calendar month with subsequent unlimited interfund transfers into the G Fund


The way I read it, you get 2 trades per month with F,C,S,I and the
L Fund and one safety move to the G Fund.

[FUTURESTRADER]

if your 1st or second move is in to G, any %, thats considered one of your first two moves. And I still think you can have unlimited safety moves into G after the first two

[wlee]

After reading more carefully, I agree.

[camper65]

Well,,,, it appears that the 'F" fund may be tapped out and CSI may be retracting for the next couple of days,,, What do we do now??? We need more choices!!!

(All dressed up and no place to go!!!)

[cyoa1fan]

Hi Tom,

Love your site been a loyal fan for 6 years now. Thanks a billion. I love the tsp and your site and it has me very interested in investing now.

Question#1- Administration fees, management fees and trading costs. How much are we being charged for each of these?

I've noticed that the TSP site talks a lot about Adminstration fees being so low (.30 per $1000 for 2006). With the talk of trading costs going up I have not seen a change in admistration fees.

I've researched this for year and at first thought we were not recieving dividends. But after lots of more research I see we are recieving them but our fees are eating them up. I've found there are 3 different fees we are being charged for our TSP accounts- Admistration fees, Management fees, and trading costs.

For 2006 I've calculated the fees for the I fund to be about $20+ per $1000 invested.

Q#2 -Have you come across any statements or literature to support or dismiss that we are being charged 3 different fees for our accounts?

Thank for all you've done I've got at least 30 people looking at your site daily.

Butch:)

[tsptalk]

Hi Butch. I don't have anything concrete on the fee structure (admin, management, trading). This may be a question for show-me who have been researching it a lot more. You can probably find them here ... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forumdisplay.php?f=103

Thanks for spreading the word!

[Scout333]

Hello Tom, I've had problems getting in the last two days. Seems to be running very slowly. I tried at home and at work and it seems to be slow both places. Is there a server problem or is there anything I might do to improve things on my end?
Thanks,

[tsptalk]

Hi Scout. I have not noticed a slowdown. Where exactly are you seeing the problem (the board, members' area, atoutracker, site in general, etc.?).

Has anyone else noticed a problem?

Thanks!

[poolman]

Hi Scout. I have not noticed a slowdown. Where exactly are you seeing the problem (the board, members' area, atoutracker, site in general, etc.?).

Has anyone else noticed a problem?

Thanks!

I have not noticed any problem on my end. Also I am on Cable modem. :)

[Scout333]

Hi Scout. I have not noticed a slowdown. Where exactly are you seeing the problem (the board, members' area, atoutracker, site in general, etc.?).

Has anyone else noticed a problem?

Thanks!

Tom, Problem is with getting the site to open and also in the message board area. Could be a problem with the servers on my end being overloaded for some reason. Oh well, thanks for answering. I tried deleting my favorites link and adding it back but that didn't make any difference. It does seem to be better in the last hour or so. I'll keep trying.:(

[McDuck]

Do you think getting/staying in the F-fund between now and June/July would be a good idea?

[tsptalk]

I wish I knew greg. I still expect a bear market rally in stocks between now and then, but I don't know how much damage will be done in stocks when the next leg is done.

Keep an eye on the chart of the AGG. As long as the trend is up, stick with F.

[lindalyc]

Tom:

in your daily commentary, you said "...As I write this, the fed funds futures are showing a 52% chance of a full 1% rate cut tomorrow, and a 48% chance of a 0.75% cut. No one is talking 0.50% anymore..."

would you please point it out to me where you'd find such information?
Many thanks for your hard work.

[tsptalk]

I heard it on Bloomberg TV. :)

[airlift]

Tom,
I need all of the help I can. Does someone know whether there is an internal administrative appeal process in the regulations with respect to TSP issues? Thank you.

[tsptalk]

airlift -

I hope you get your answer. Maybe you need to contact an attorney? I'm sure there are those who specialize in TSP / IRA issues.

[airlift]

Thanks Tom. We shall see. I am consdering taking a loan at TSP as a possible alternative. Meantime I'll have to do the slow snail walk, until we convince the authorities that there are more palatable solutions.

[McDuck]

Tom,

A friend told me about a TSP-fund IFT-strategy that someone else (person B) told him about. Person B said it performed 5 or 6 times better than any other strategy that he analyzed.

I would like to hear if you have heard of this one before and what you think of it.

It is a very simple strategy. It consists of: at the beginning of each month IFT into the fund that performed the best the previous month (i.e., at beginning of July IFT into the fund that performed the best during June.)

I back-tested it for the years 2001 thru 2007; 2001 was the first year with all 5 funds.
Using this strategy over those 7 years gave a return of 114%.
Staying in the I-fund the same years returned 74%.
The S-fund returned 69%.
The F-fund returned 49%.
The G-fund returned 38%.
The C-fund returned 25%.

Supposedly, person B has been using this strategy for several years with success. It seems too simple. But I can see why it would work. And it does take the emotions out of IFTing and it would fit in any restricted-IFT rules that they throw at us.

This strategy could also be back-tested all the way back to the beginning to TSP using the G, F, C funds. I haven't done that yet.

Also, staying in a fund (that performed best the previous year) all year seems to be a very good strategy too.

Of course, all of this is taking the multi-year view.

Sincerely,
Greg

[tsptalk]

Interesting. It sounds like it's worth watching.

Want to start a Account Talk thread for it so you can follow it?

Thanks!

[airlift]

Tom,
Before I ask you a question, I read your commentary today. I fully support you and agree with you. I hope you can find a way to let those who voluntarily want to roll-over, to do so. Especially in light of the fact that TSP is trying to change their promised and currently established ability to do daily IFTs without our consent. I hope you succeed!

In pertinent part, you said,"If they do in fact implement the limits, and they are not official yet, I will strongly consider cutting my contributions to 5% to get my agencies match amount, then move the rest into an IRA. I will also find out if there is a way to move any of our money that is currently in the TSP, into that IRA. I feel we were misled. I have contributed a lot of money over years with the understanding that I would have unlimited transfers available if I needed them. Now that the rules have changed, I feel we should have the right to make a one time rollover without penalty. I wish things could have been different."

My question, to change the subject: In your 4/09/08 commentary (yesterday) you stated,

"As long as the S&P is trading below the 200-day moving average (DMA), and the 20 DMA is below the 50 DMA, we have to be on our guard. It is a bear market until proven otherwise. Some of the rallies are playable, but once the indices become overbought, it's back to defense."

If you chart the S&P500 using a mix of simple and exponential moving averages, it shows that EMA(20) has already crossed-over the SMA(50). Is it a mistake to mix the EMA and the SMA indistictively? Maybe it has something to do with faster or slower indicators? Thank you.

[wv-girl]

Tom,
I have been hearing a lot lately about the redefining of the words "roll-over" versus "transfer". It seems that some now feel that "roll-over" means to get your $ and then put it somewhere else yourself instead of having the agency involved do it for you(ie. "transfer"). I think to be safe, it might be prudent for the participant to discuss those phrases with the person doing the 'transfer' so that there are no suprises. Just a suggestion, but an important one.
debbie

[tsptalk]

"As long as the S&P is trading below the 200-day moving average (DMA), and the 20 DMA is below the 50 DMA, we have to be on our guard. It is a bear market until proven otherwise. Some of the rallies are playable, but once the indices become overbought, it's back to defense."

If you chart the S&P500 using a mix of simple and exponential moving averages, it shows that EMA(20) has already crossed-over the SMA(50). Is it a mistake to mix the EMA and the SMA indistictively? Maybe it has something to do with faster or slower indicators? Thank you.
Some use the SMA, some EMA. Since decision point uses the EMA, I look for the trends in those averages. You can easily use the SMA, you just want to be consistant. If you want to use a mix, always use that mix. Know what I mean?

[tsptalk]

Tom,
I have been hearing a lot lately about the redefining of the words "roll-over" versus "transfer". It seems that some now feel that "roll-over" means to get your $ and then put it somewhere else yourself instead of having the agency involved do it for you(ie. "transfer"). I think to be safe, it might be prudent for the participant to discuss those phrases with the person doing the 'transfer' so that there are no suprises. Just a suggestion, but an important one.
debbie
Good idea Debbie. I am not even up on the distinction, but I guess I better start looking into it. Thanks!

[RPM]

Tom:

I'd like to test the "Go away in May" theory with the TSP funds. On Stocktrader's Almanac, they posted the triggers date going back when. Do you have a spreadsheet with all the TSP share prices from inception? I was going to download them from tsp.gov, but thought I'd check with you first. You seem to have everything :)

Will post the results after I am done with it.

Thanks,

[tsptalk]

Sorry RPM, I don't.

[McDuck]

Tom, Do you ever hear from my archenemy m&m mikey?

[ucanbreached]

Tom,

In today's commentary you put references to the sentiment trader.com analysis. The chart of historical activity and its possibility on the next three months. It seems that you have misplaced the princeton 8.6 yr cycle chart you put up 20 march. link - http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_3_20_08.html

Well, I am trying it out since the analysis you put up that day showed a strong historical accuracy. I actually bought at that march low and am now doing pretty good as a result.

That ref chart in the above link stated the market is supposed to go up until 1 qtr 2009 and then big drop for two years. Since I am somewhat young, I am going to play that chart; albeit I will definitly sell by Dec 08. Based on history and that chart, if someone would have followed it from its creation they would have done EXTREMELY well.

Anyway just wondering why you are using the short term sentiment trader analysis and not the longer term successful analysis you put up before.

[tsptalk]

Hi ucanbreached -

Although there can be decent historical correlations, no one model is going to be totally accurate, all of the time. The business cycle chart you are referring to shows the peaks and troughs of the economic cycle, and sometimes the market does not move hand in hand with the economic cycle. But your point is taken.

That said, there will be good buying opps and selling opps within that cycle - of course acting on them is easier said than done.

[McDuck]

Tom, What do you think about being 100% F-fund for the rest of July?

[tsptalk]

Bonds have held up better than I thought, but with the rate cuts over and rate hikes (or the threat of them) in the air, it should keep a drag on the bond market, in my opinion. They are good for days when there's a run for quality, but the rallies "should not" last too long.

[lindalyc]

Tom:
Quote from "Bear Market Rules Apply"by Carl Swenlin (January 18, 2008)
"The questions remain as to how far down prices will go and how long the bear market will last? In the shorter term we have a minimum downside projection from the double top neckline of about 1160 on the S&P 500 Index. That could mark a medium-term low from which a bear market rally could rise...." (http://decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/080118_bear.html)

I look at daily, weekly and monthly, couldn't see the "double top neckline of 1160" he mentioned above. where is the double tops and 1160 came from?

thanks

[tsptalk]

I look at daily, weekly and monthly, couldn't see the "double top neckline of 1160" he mentioned above. where is the double tops and 1160 came from?

thanks

The projection below the break of the neckline is equal to the distance from the peak to the neckline. So 1575 to 1375 = 200 pts. 1375 - 200 = 1175. He says 1160 so perhaps he is using the first peak in the double top.

I hope that helps...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/temp/071108.gif

[lindalyc]

many thanks, Tom.
I overlooked then word "Projection...."

[RPM]

Tom:

I have another favor to ask. Would it be possible to have a direct link to the Automatic Tracker from the message board? As I read the members' discussion on their moves, it would be great to be able to go there directly. Right now, I have to go back out to the home page, then click on tracker. You already have the message board link from the tracker page, which is absolutely great.

Thanks for keeping on improving the site and maintaining the forum for us. BTW, on the tracker, what do (ps) and (pm) stand for?

Thanks again

[tsptalk]

Tom:

I have another favor to ask. Would it be possible to have a direct link to the Automatic Tracker from the message board? As I read the members' discussion on their moves, it would be great to be able to go there directly. Right now, I have to go back out to the home page, then click on tracker. You already have the message board link from the tracker page, which is absolutely great.

Thanks for keeping on improving the site and maintaining the forum for us. BTW, on the tracker, what do (ps) and (pm) stand for?

Thanks again
I'll take a look to see how easy that will be.

pm = premium member
ps = premium service

[tsptalk]

Would it be possible to have a direct link to the Automatic Tracker from the message board?
Done! It's in the main menu above.

[luv2read]

Awesome! Thanks Tom! :D

[Guest2]

That was not only fast, it was a great idea ! Thanks to
both RPM and Tom. It was one of those ideas which cried
out; "why didn't I think of that ?",,,,,, EXCELLANT !!!!!!!!!

[McDuck]

Tom,

If you had gone 100% C-fund on Aug 25th (having lost 4% as of today COB), would you go to safety (G-fund) tomorrow?

Thanks

[tsptalk]

Tough call. We could have a temporary rally here (couple of days). Maybe waiting for a rally toward 20/50 day moving averages would be better.

[McDuck]

Tough call. We could have a temporary rally here (couple of days). Maybe waiting for a rally toward 20/50 day moving averages would be better.

So that would be ~1260, which is a move up of 50 points, right?

[MohammadXX]

Tom,

Any suggestions how to play triple-witching Friday?
Is it even a factor?

[tsptalk]

I'm not sure Mo. Expiration day is not always wild. It depends on strike prices and where the volume is on each side. I am more worried about post options week than Friday. But it depends on the action leading up to it.

Sorry I couldn't be more helpful.

Tom

[MohammadXX]

"Expiration day is not always wild. It depends on strike prices and where the volume is on each side. I am more worried about post options week than Friday. But it depends on the action leading up to it."

Thank you for the input.

[RPM]

Tom:

I have been pondering the points that Birch has been pounding about the number of shares you own, and don't know whether or not your system of tracker % does take that into account. On appearance, it seems to be based solely on the share price, not the number of shares.

I know that last year, when I was moving in and out of the market a lot, sometimes my balance is higher than before, but my actual number of shares is lower. The higher balance is purely due to the higher share price, but then if I had hold the previous higher number of shares, my balance would have been even higher.

Does the higher % implicitly mean that you have more shares? Is there some spreadsheet that you have that keep track of both? What am I missing?

Thanks,

[tsptalk]

Hi RPM. The number of shares is really meaningless. It's the account balance that is important. I don't care if I have 100 shares worth $50 or 1000 worth $5, it is still a $5000 account. Those share prices will go up and down in the same percentages. i.e. - If both shares went down 10%, you'd have $4500. The $5 shares are now worth $4.50, and the $50 are worth $45.

When a company splits their stock, the shareholder gets 2 times the number of shares at half the price. There is no real gain to anyone's account.

If someone really just wanted more shares, they should just get into the cheapest fund. Would you rather own 100 shares of IBM (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ibm) or 1 share of Berkshire Hathaway (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BRK-A)? :)

Hope that helps.

[McDuck]

Tom,

Could you tell why I have only one black reputation dot while I have posted over a 600 times? You have 7 green ones.

Thanks,
Greg

[Minnow]

Tom,

Could you tell why I have only one black reputation dot while I have posted over a 600 times? You have 7 green ones.

Thanks,
Greg

I'm not TOM but, go to your "User CP" .. then click on Edit Options... then scroll down to show your reputation level and check that box... I'll be the first one to give you reputation points....

Don't feel bad... I got one box and 300 posts but mine are all questions so I don't deserve more :) You sir are valuable to this site.

[McDuck]

I'm not TOM but, go to your "User CP" .. then click on Edit Options... then scroll down to show your reputation level and check that box...

Thanks for the info. It worked.

I had been figuring that MilkMan's old buddies here must have been blackballing me.

[Minnow]

hehehehe ... Hey LLama.... how about a little somethin'.. you know ... for the effort?

[Intrepid_Timer]

Thanks for the info. It worked.

I had been figuring that MilkMan's old buddies here must have been blackballing me.


Just can't get over that man can you?

[tsptalk]

I'm not TOM but, go to your "User CP" .. then click on Edit Options... then scroll down to show your reputation level and check that box... I'll be the first one to give you reputation points....

Don't feel bad... I got one box and 300 posts but mine are all questions so I don't deserve more :) You sir are valuable to this site.
Thanks for helping Minnow!

[McDuck]

Thomas, What would you think about someone going 100% F-fund for the rest of the month?

Thanks

[McDuck]

Thomas,

AGG went down 2.07% yesterday but the F-fund went down only 0.41%.
What's up with that?

Thanks

[tsptalk]

Thomas,

AGG went down 2.07% yesterday but the F-fund went down only 0.41%.
What's up with that?

Thanks
Fair value adjustment? Not sure. The F fund sometimes has I fund like adjustments at the whim of the TSP. The bond market actually closes an hour earlier than the stock market.

To answer your first question - as long as their is fear in the air, the F fund should do OK, particularly if they cut rates. Of curse you take your chances as a rebound in stocks could sink the bonds.

[Intrepid_Timer]

Tom, I see you have the Verizon broadband card as I do. Works well here on the east coast but since I'll be doing some traveling through the southwest soon, I'm considering going to Sprint. Have you had any experience with Sprint?

[tsptalk]

Tom, I see you have the Verizon broadband card as I do. Works well here on the east coast but since I'll be doing some traveling through the southwest soon, I'm considering going to Sprint. Have you had any experience with Sprint?
No, just Verizon. I'm not sure if it's the trees on Long Island, or that my number was not local... The connection on my phone seemed to be weak also.

But I don't usually have problems at home as it works well. It also worked well in Vegas. So I'm not sure.

[RPM]

Tom:

It looks as though the TSPmoney.com site is NO LONGER! Would you consider adding a Weekly line to your front page tally to duplicate the TSPmoney.com info? And what time do you usually update that info?

Thanks mucho!

[RPM]

I never even knew about these reputation points! Thanks to all those who have given me the points! :)


Thanks for the info. It worked.

I had been figuring that MilkMan's old buddies here must have been blackballing me.

[tsptalk]

A weekly line? Probably. Let me see how it looks.

I usually update the share prices between 7 PM and 8 PM ET - just after the TSP posts their prices. It is not automated so it can be late some days if i am out at that time.

[Intrepid_Timer]

Tom, I just got an e-mail at work about blocking some sites. One of the statements about sites being blocked is "Web Chat: Sites that host Web chat services or that support or provide information about chat via HTTP or IRC." Will this include this site?

[tsptalk]

I could be wrong, but I don't think this board format is considered "chat". I believe they are talking about IM type communication.

If the site does get blocked, you may be able to get it reinstated as couple of members have in the past. (Namor for one). Just explain the site's content and purpose, and they seem to comply.

[Bullitt]

Tom,

I searched the MB but was unable to find the market's emotional cycle chart that was posted a few months back. I'm pretty sure I saw it in a thread somewhere on this site. It's the cyclical chart with emotions such as despair, hope, euphoria, depression and anxiety.

Anyway, I was going to try bringing that post back to life for discussion in order to gauge where the consensus thinks we are in the cycle. Do you or anybody else know where that chart is? Thank you.

[tsptalk]

You can find it on this page... http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_1_3_08.html

The Google search feature at the top of our home page (http://www.tsptalk.com) works pretty good at finding info within the site. Just click on the TSP Talk radio button, instead of "The web".

[McDuck]

Tom, Is you current fund allocation and return for the year somewhere on this site?

Thanks

[tsptalk]

My return is in the autotracker. My current allocation is not posted since I sometimes use the premium services to make my decisions.

[Gumby]

Tom,

Is something wrong with the autotracker for the COB today, 11/24/08?
Check out the C fund return for the ranking and then check out the daily returns.....seems to be a little bit of a discrepency.

[McDuck]

My return is in the autotracker. My current allocation is not posted since I sometimes use the premium services to make my decisions.

Is it under the name "TSPTalk_Trading (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/../tracker/tsp_user_record_show.php?user=TSPTalk_Trading)"?

[tsptalk]

Is it under the name "TSPTalk_Trading (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/../tracker/tsp_user_record_show.php?user=TSPTalk_Trading)"?
Yes. And the tsptalk_inactive is the hypothetical account that only makes 2 or 3 transfers per year.

[tsptalk]

Tom,

Is something wrong with the autotracker for the COB today, 11/24/08?
Check out the C fund return for the ranking and then check out the daily returns.....seems to be a little bit of a discrepency.
It looks OK to me Gumby. +6.5% on Monday, -40.79% YTD. Are you seeing something different?

[Gumby]

It looks OK to me Gumby. +6.5% on Monday, -40.79% YTD. Are you seeing something different?


This is the small difference ...


Member: C_fund (http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_show.php?user=C_fund)
# Date Balance in $ Returns in %
1 2008-11-24 5939.00 -39.92


125C_fund (http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_show.php?user=C_fund)-40.79 %6.50 %010010000000002008-01-01

[tsptalk]

This is the small difference ...


Member: C_fund (http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_show.php?user=C_fund)
# Date Balance in $ Returns in %
1 2008-11-24 5939.00 -39.92


125C_fund (http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_show.php?user=C_fund)-40.79 %6.50 %010010000000002008-01-01
I do see the "125 C fund" row, but do you have a link to the top one (-39.92%). I can't seem to find that.

By the way, there is a "New Tracker Software" thread in the Report Problems forum (it's the bottom one on the board page). I know Ocean reads that so he would be able to help if/when there is a problem reported there.

Thanks.

[Gumby]

Here is the Link (http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_returns_daily.php?user=C_fund)
Sorry for the confusion.

[tsptalk]

Here is the Link (http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_returns_daily.php?user=C_fund)
Sorry for the confusion.
OK thanks! I'll take a look.

[Guest2]

Tom, do you find that the TLT chart at the bottom of each the web
page, demonstrates a more accurate return then the AGG when comparing
both against the (F) Fund ? Curiosity only, as the AGG has long been the
standard. But with the differences within the AGG YTD returns, I've kinda
lost faith in it. :confused:

[tsptalk]

Yes, me too. The AGG has been no help so I'm trying the TLT to see how it does.

[Guest2]

Yes, me too. The AGG has been no help so I'm trying the TLT to see how it does.

Thanks Big Guy !

While glancing at the YTD returns for each, it would appear that neither
will be much good to us. Let me know how it works out and Thanks again.;)

[McDuck]

Tom, What do you think about being in the F-fund for the month of December?

[tsptalk]

It (bonds) appears overbought, but who knows how low rates will go?

[McDuck]

Tom, Have you ever considered doing you Market Commentary as a video on YouTube like ManOfTruth or Pastor Manning ?

[tsptalk]

Thought about it, but probably not any time soon. It would take me 50 takes to do a 2-minute video. Correcting mistakes is easier when typing. :)

[JTH]

I apologize if this question has been asked before, but I was deployed last New Years Eve, so I missed out on joining the tracker.

Will I have to be 100% G in the tracker on January 1st or will I just act like it’s just another day?

[tsptalk]

Just another day.

[McDuck]

Tom,

What do you think about getting into the stock-funds this next Monday COB?

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/seasonality_december.gif

[tsptalk]

I don't look at seasonality as primary indicator Greg. Just an added breeze at the back of the market (or in the face of the market if it's negative). If the market was oversold and we were in an uptrend, I'd say yes, push it based on seasonality.

But I hate how things look right now, and perhaps the seasonality will keep things contained for a while, but I am not interested in being in stocks until we at least get some oversold readings.

[dannyboy]

Tom,

I sent you a mailing address yesterday and I'm not sure if that was what was wanted or needed? I'm also curious? Both my parents are from Ireland. As far as records are known of ( 7 generations in all; were born in, grew up and died in Ireland). My Mothers favorite Irish Song was "Oh Dannyboy". Hence she slapped that on me her youngest child.
Can I change dannymcm to dannyboy? I believe, There was a dannyboy when I first started to try this site and when I tried that it was rejected? so I just used dannymcm. I looked at the member list and they seemed to have left? Can I now, use that login for me? thanks

[tsptalk]

I got your address dannyboy! You're all set.

[ATCJeff]

Any plans for next year to inlcude a TSPTalk mobile website?

Jeff

[tsptalk]

I'll have to do some research on that.

[KevinD]

I want some TSPTalk swag. Any thoughts on uploading something to www.Cafepress.com?

[tsptalk]

swag
:laugh: LOL. That is something I have considered for a while. I have procrastinated because I didn't think it would generate much interest. Maybe in 2009.

[Rod]

:laugh: LOL. That is something I have considered for a while. I have procrastinated because I didn't think it would generate much interest. Maybe in 2009.

I think a designer TSPTalk wall calendar with key economic dates (Fed meeting dates, etc.) would be nice, especially for a newbie. It could be something similar to the Stock Trader's Almanac, but not as in-debth. Just some key event dates. It could also include "TSPTalk Tips" or "TSPTalk'n Points". A great talking point topic could be the (I) Fund since many questions are asked about how its price is formulated.

Just brainstorm'n:)

[McDuck]

Is it just me, or does Kwanzaa seem to come earlier and earlier each year?

[KevinD]

It's just you...

[McDuck]

Tom, What are your thoughts on how the U.S. regime change will effect the stock markets over the next 2 weeks?

[tsptalk]

If you remember, there was a rally in late October as it became more apparent that Obama was going to win the election. But right after the election, the market sold off again.

So, there may be some optimism for a change leading up to the swearing in, but I believe it is more hope than anything else. I don't believe any plan put forth by Obama will change much in the next 6-12 months. The damage is done.

[McDuck]

If you remember, there was a rally in late October as it became more apparent that Obama was going to win the election.

I have a different POV on that. The month prior to the election, BHO's %lead over Bush was similar to Kerry's %lead in 2004. Therefore, business people thought that McCain would pull it out on election day. Then the market dropped 10% in the 2 days after the election.

[poolman]

I have a different POV on that. The month prior to the election, BHO's %lead over Bush was similar to Kerry's %lead in 2004. Therefore, business people thought that McCain would pull it out on election day. Then the market dropped 10% in the 2 days after the election.


I think we will have 1 Major rally day between 1/12 - 1/16 .

Congress will pull out all the stops this coming week. Watch the

News and see. News News News..... Breaking News....

[McDuck]

Tom, What do you think about a person staying 100% F-fund for the rest of the month? Would being 100% G-fund be better? I have used my 2 IFTs. Thanks.

[tsptalk]

I like the G fund better right now. How about 50/50 G/F?

[McDuck]

Tom, You're looking cool by jumping in/making 3% and getting out before today. Way to go! 2009 may be your year.

[tsptalk]

That never happens to me. Maybe my luck has changed. :)

Also, the ebbchart helped me avoid today, or I would have probably stayed in stocks until Monday, the 1st.

[Frixxxx]

Tom,

On the main page you show the "I" Fund +1.66% for this week!

What numbers are you using because I show a loss last week!

[tsptalk]

The TSP website has the I fund closing at 12.555 on Friday Jan 30th, and 12.3497 on Friday Jan 23rd. Is that not correct?

[Frixxxx]

I came up with +1.64 not +1.66

[tsptalk]

This is how excel figures it using this formula...

(12.555 - 12.3497) / 12.3497 = 1.6624%

How'd you get 1.64%?

[hessian]

Hi Tom,
Disturbing article below.

Mostly a question, but also for everyone, a caution:
1) Regarding article below - Anyone posting videos (eg., YouTube), .gifs, etc, to this website - is there protection against malicious links being mistakenly posted here/this website?

2) *Be on guard/on lookout, on your computer!
Data Scams Have Kicked into High Gear as Markets Tumble.
Cybercriminals have launched a massive new wave of Internet-based schemes to steal personal data and carry out financial scams in an effort to take advantage of the fear and confusion created by tumbling financial markets, security specialists say. The schemes — often involving online promotions touting fake computer virus protection, get-rich scams and funny or lurid videos — already were rising last fall when financial markets took a dive. With consumers around the world panicking, the number of scams on the Web soared.
The number of malicious programs circulating on the Internet tripled to more than 31,000 a day in mid-September, coinciding with the sudden collapse of the U.S. financial sector, according to Panda Security, an Internet security firm.
It wasn't a coincidence, says Ryan Sherstobitoff, chief corporate evangelist at Panda.
"The criminal economy is closely interrelated with our own economy," he says. "Criminal organizations closely watch market performance and adapt as needed to ensure maximum profit."
Among those caught in the most recent barrage of scams was Justin Terrazas, 27, a beverage merchandiser from Seattle. He clicked on a Web link that infected his MacBook Pro laptop with a data-stealing program. Not realizing the laptop was compromised, Terrazas later typed his Bank of America debit card number and PIN to pay his Verizon cellphone bill online. The data-stealer swiftly siphoned his information. [more...]
USA Today - January 29
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2009-01-28-hackers-data-scams_N.htm (http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2009-01-28-hackers-data-scams_N.htm)

[tsptalk]

There is no software protection that I am aware of, that will stop someone from posting a bad link, but we do have some protection in place that can keep a lot of spammers from being able to create accounts.

[Frixxxx]

This is how excel figures it using this formula...

(12.555 - 12.3497) / 12.3497 = 1.6624%

How'd you get 1.64%?
Lysdexia - you know...where the fingers and the brain just can't meet up....SORRY!

You are right...1.66

[tsptalk]

No problem. Someone has to keep me on my toes. :)

[budnipper1]

There is no software protection that I am aware of, that will stop someone from posting a bad link, but we do have some protection in place that can keep a lot of spammers from being able to create accounts.


Hi Tom,
Disturbing article below.
Mostly a question, but also for everyone, a caution:
1) Regarding article below - Anyone posting videos (eg., YouTube), .gifs, etc, to this website - is there protection against malicious links being mistakenly posted here/this website?
2) *Be on guard/on lookout, on your computer!
Data Scams Have Kicked into High Gear as Markets Tumble.
Cybercriminals have launched a massive new wave of Internet-based schemes to steal personal data and carry out financial scams in an effort to take advantage of the fear and confusion created by tumbling financial markets, security specialists say. The schemes — often involving online promotions touting fake computer virus protection, get-rich scams and funny or lurid videos — already were rising last fall when financial markets took a dive. With consumers around the world panicking, the number of scams on the Web soared.
The number of malicious programs circulating on the Internet tripled to more than 31,000 a day in mid-September, coinciding with the sudden collapse of the U.S. financial sector, according to Panda Security, an Internet security firm.
It wasn't a coincidence, says Ryan Sherstobitoff, chief corporate evangelist at Panda.
"The criminal economy is closely interrelated with our own economy," he says. "Criminal organizations closely watch market performance and adapt as needed to ensure maximum profit."
Among those caught in the most recent barrage of scams was Justin Terrazas, 27, a beverage merchandiser from Seattle. He clicked on a Web link that infected his MacBook Pro laptop with a data-stealing program. Not realizing the laptop was compromised, Terrazas later typed his Bank of America debit card number and PIN to pay his Verizon cellphone bill online. The data-stealer swiftly siphoned his information. [more...]
USA Today - January 29
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2009-01-28-hackers-data-scams_N.htm (http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2009-01-28-hackers-data-scams_N.htm)

This site is like any other "unsecured" site, which means "enter at your own risk". I'm no expert, but there are a few things I make a habit of doing to protect myself online.

1. The experts always warn not to ever click on a url link unless you trust the person who provided the link. That's good advice, IMO, since I'm the suspicious type anyway. But, you can do a simple right-click on a link and see if the url in the properties window matches the url in the link.

2. When I download ANY thing, I always choose the save to desktop option rather than the "open" tab. That allows me to tell my anti-virus prog. to run a scan on the file before I let it run on the computer.

3. Every day, before I first click on the web, I run a manual update check on the anti-virus prog., even though it's set for auto-updating. See...I don't even trust my own program.:laugh:

So far, I've managed to avoid any major viral infections, and most trojan attacks. Spybot and the other spyware defenses built into XP have done a good job with that. The bottom line is that we, the individual users are the ones responsible for avoiding hacker attacks. Just keep your guard up and be safe.:)

5619

[tsptalk]

Good info. Thanks!

[McDuck]

Tom, I jumping in at 100%-C from 100%-G for my first IFT of the month. The S&P was down 4% at the deadline and at - 4.6% currently. Do you think I made a mistake?

[tsptalk]

I wish I knew. So far the support line is holding, but I am expecting a test of the Nov. lows at some point.

[JTH]

Tom

Before the commodities bubble burst, Oil & Gold seemed to trade inversely to the U.S. Dollar.

There are a few things I just don't understand. :worried:

With the Feds printing/pumping all this extra money, why has the dollar maintained it's strength?

With gold on the rise, why hasn't it beat down the dollar and why isn't and Oil following gold?

I understand the demand for oil has gone down, but does the decline in demand for oil really justify it's low price?

Finally, do you expect any of this to change?

Thanks...JTH

[tsptalk]

With the Feds printing/pumping all this extra money, why has the dollar maintained it's strength?
The dollar's strength is in comparison to other currencies, and they are hurting worse overseas. The pound, euro, Canadian dollar, Aussie dollar, are all hurting. The yen has been holding up. however.



With gold on the rise, why hasn't it beat down the dollar and why isn't and Oil following gold?
I didn't think this dual rally could last, but the above response may be the answer. The dollar may be holding up vs. other currencies, but gold is out pacing them all. Right now the Dow is worth about 8 ounces of gold. It used to be like 30+ ounces.



I understand the demand for oil has gone down, but does the decline in demand for oil really justify it's low price?
Just as the upside went a little too far, when bubbles burst, the downside tends to get exaggerated as well. If we see $30 or $25, as cracmer would say, buy, buy, buy! :)



Finally, do you expect any of this to change?

I expect gold to do well. The dollar may stay strong or hold, but gold should out pace. Like I said, oil will be a buy once no one believes it will go up. Probably when $30 falls.

Just my opinion. I hope it helps.

[alevin]

Tom, the tracker folks who've been in G since start of the year appear to be goobled up in the tracker. G says .33, G people show admixture of .32 and .33. and they are not in numerical order. My account says .32, but I've been in G since before New Year, so I should be showing same as G, .33, shouldn't I? Other folks accounts should also be showing .33 instead of .32 - I think.....?

[tsptalk]

I'll check on that.

[tsptalk]

I'll check on that.
My first thought, without looking at the program, is that it is due to rounding. The return you see for the year is taking your total return since you were first tracked, minus your return thru Dec 31.

The G-fund is up 0.32495% for the year so it's almost exactly between .32 and .33. Today's gain in the G-fund should pop you all to .33, as it will hit approx .33279%. If some go to 0.34 I will explore further.

This is no reason not to make it correct, but this error could be off by .005%, which is about 50 cents for each $10,000 of balance.

[tsptalk]

Tom, the tracker folks who've been in G since start of the year appear to be goobled up in the tracker. G says .33, G people show admixture of .32 and .33. and they are not in numerical order. My account says .32, but I've been in G since before New Year, so I should be showing same as G, .33, shouldn't I? Other folks accounts should also be showing .33 instead of .32 - I think.....?


My first thought, without looking at the program, is that it is due to rounding. The return you see for the year is taking your total return since you were first tracked, minus your return thru Dec 31.

The G-fund is up 0.32495% for the year so it's almost exactly between .32 and .33. Today's gain in the G-fund should pop you all to .33, as it will hit approx .33279%. If some go to 0.34 I will explore further.

This is no reason not to make it correct, but this error could be off by .005%, which is about 50 cents for each $10,000 of balance.
Shew! I was right. I wasn't 100% sure my theory was correct but all the G-funders are now +0.33% as suspected. ;)

[alevin]

Thanks Tom. I figured it was something like that and an easy fix.

[hessian]

Hi Tom,
mojo posted the following this morning:

"For those of you who missed it the Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector"
Is this true?

I'm as interested for an answer to this as he is, because if true, it could have a big impact for the Dow, next week! :worried:

Apologies, for re-posting it here/with you, but thought you might have heard :o
- or maybe there's a TSPTalk "Rumor" post, that I should've maybe used as appropriate.
I am going to try to get to bottom of this now, via google.
Hope anyone that knows will respond with correct answer!!
Thanks

[Rod]

Hi Tom,
mojo posted the following this morning:

"For those of you who missed it the Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector"
Is this true?

I'm as interested for an answer to this as he is, because if true, it could have a big impact for the Dow, next week! :worried:

Apologies, for re-posting it here/with you, but thought you might have heard :o
- or maybe there's a TSPTalk "Rumor" post, that I should've maybe used as appropriate.
I am going to try to get to bottom of this now, via google.
Hope anyone that knows will respond with correct answer!!
Thanks



To the best of my knowledge, AIG was removed last fall. But all others remain in-place.

[tsptalk]

"For those of you who missed it the Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector"
Is this true?
I watch a lot of CNBC and/or Bloomberg, and have not heard that but it actually makes sense. Stocks get dropped from major indices if they fall below certain market capitalizations.

So no, I have not heard this, it could happen, but they'd probably be replaced by other financials because I would think the Dow would have to have some representation from the financial sector.

http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/ (http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/)

[nnuut]

I found this on Google!
Posted: February 21 2009


Gold now represents a flight to quality, banks being nationalizied, financial system in a tailspin, the depression we are now in is stage 2, inflation is a hidden tax, dollar stability being debauched, China wants out of the dollar, stability of EU at risk, Dow hiding its worst stocks from its index, Housing bubble now burst puts prices back in line with incomes...

INTERESTING EXCERPT FROM THE ARTICLE: "For those of you who missed it the Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector. Had they been left in the Dow would be lower and would have broken down below 7286. This is just more flagrant manipulation. Almost every day we see it in a number of markets. This week the Fed and the Treasury tried to push the stock market up and the commodities and gold and silver markets down but to no avail. Downside stock market volume has been some 65% of total volume and there are over 300 new lows almost every day." [more]
http://goldtradercomments.blogspot.com/

[hessian]

Thanks for the great quick responses!
FYI, mojo's Acct had a little more on this (in case interested).
Together, I think I got the general/overall picture.
Don't like it, seems manipulated, but perhaps not a huge issue.
VR!!

[Rod]

I found this on Google!
Posted: February 21 2009


Gold now represents a flight to quality, banks being nationalizied, financial system in a tailspin, the depression we are now in is stage 2, inflation is a hidden tax, dollar stability being debauched, China wants out of the dollar, stability of EU at risk, Dow hiding its worst stocks from its index, Housing bubble now burst puts prices back in line with incomes...

INTERESTING EXCERPT FROM THE ARTICLE: "For those of you who missed it the Dow Jones removed all stocks in the industrial average priced under $10.00, effectively eliminating the crippled financial sector. Had they been left in the Dow would be lower and would have broken down below 7286. This is just more flagrant manipulation. Almost every day we see it in a number of markets. This week the Fed and the Treasury tried to push the stock market up and the commodities and gold and silver markets down but to no avail. Downside stock market volume has been some 65% of total volume and there are over 300 new lows almost every day." [more]
http://goldtradercomments.blogspot.com/

I don't know Norm. I would question something like that coming from someone's blog.

We need a reliable source.

[McDuck]

Tom,

On your Market Comments page, it says that C-fund % Chg wk was -11.6% but between the Friday 13th and 20th the Sp500 went down 6.7%.

Thanks for all you do.

Greg

[tsptalk]

Thanks Greg! Got it.

[JTH]

Tom

I'm showing a difference between the tracker and my TSP Talk Returns Calculator with L-Funds Excel spreadsheet.

Tracker: 20% Each shows -8.94%

My tracker: 20% Each shows -11.50%

I'm I off my rocker?

Thanks...JTH

[tsptalk]

Thanks. My spreadsheet says -11.50% also. I'll take a look. I found a problems with another account as well. I'm not sure what is up.

[tsptalk]

I have that fixed but I have no idea where it went wrong.

If anyone suspects other returns being wrong, please let me know. My return and all of the premium returns are matching my spreadsheet.

[Guest2]

Tom,

In order Not to further a hoax, could you please delete post #3272
from my thread. Thanks In Advance ! Squalebear

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=212201&postcount=3272

[nnuut]

Tom,

In order Not to further a hoax, could you please delete post #3272
from my thread. Thanks In Advance ! Squalebear

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=212201&postcount=3272
Done!:D

[Guest2]

Done!:D

Bless You Norm, I think the stink is fading !

[Minnow]

Hey Tom,

Sorry if this has already been asked elsewhere, but, are you going to do the TSP March Madness brackets again this year?

[tsptalk]

I was hoping someone else would... but here we go... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=213315

[ETFnerd]

Hi Tom,

I'm a new member.

In the beginning of the year, I made a plan to contribute $2,750 for the first four pay periods and $250 for the subsequent 22 pay periods bringing my total contributions to $16,500. The goal was to frontload the contributions while at the same time maximizing my matching contributions.

On Feb 19, I changed my contribution from $2,750/pp to $250/pp on employee express. I thought this would take effect in pp5. When I received my pp5 check, $2,750 had been contributed again to my TSP account.

Now I don't have enough room to contribute 5% on my salary for the rest of the year. It looks like I will not be able to contribute for the last 10 pay periods or so if I contribute 5% of my salary. This will cause me to leave ~$2,000 in matching contributions on the table. :(

I contacted my payroll administrator, who told me that they would contact the TSP administrator to either reverse or adjust my pp5 contribution to $250. I was told shortly thereafter that they could not reverse contributions for prior pay periods.

I was wondering if there was any way that my prior period contribution could be reversed or adjusted down to $250.

Many thanks in advance.

In gratitude and agony,
ETFnerd

[tsptalk]

Welcome ETFnerd! I have to admit that I have never heard of this situation before but I can see where you'd be concerned.

Unfortunately, I don't have an answer for you, but I will copy this post into the general questions area, where you will likely get more views and responses from other members.

Post copied here ... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=6967

You might also want to post in the member's introduction area and explain your situation.

In the meantime, I will try to find something online that might help. Good luck.

[ETFnerd]

Many thanks Tom. I'll do as you suggest.

[Guest2]

Tom, When I click on the Stats Drop Down Menu, I see the selections
with no problem; "View More" and "Turn Off". But when I click on the
"View More" selection, the page jumps to the "FAQ Smilie List" page
instead.

This may be unrelated to the above problem, however, at the very top
of the page, an error is documented as follows;


Maybe this might help you resolve the page jump problem. ;)