Transfer 7/23 for 7/26/04

[tsptalk]

I am moving the 25% I have in the I fund over to the C fund asthe dollar seems to be getting stronger.I am making the transfer this morning andit will be effective Monday morning. My new allocation will be 75% S, 25% C fund. This won't be reflected in today's comments.

[Govtman]

:?Sir, reference your 26 Jul 04 comments, "I will make a temporary move to 100% F fund (yes, I'm going against my plan) for Tuesday, and most likely get back in for Friday morning. I am choosing the F fund because if anything does happen, bonds will likely be the safe haven. Hmmm, bonds have been strong lately. Maybe the bond market is just as intuitive??
That's all for today. Currently 75% S and 25% I fund but moving to 100% G fund for Tuesday. See you tomorrow or on the message board (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb)."

did you mean that you are placing 100% of your funds into the "F" Fund or "G" Fund? I'm confused. Please clarify...

Govtman:^

[tsptalk]

Sorry about that. It is the F fund!!

Thanks,
Tom

[Rod]

I was getting ready to ask the same.

Can you edit your comments to reflect this so folks don't get confused?

God Bless :)

[tsptalk]

Sure. It should be updated. You may have to hit "refresh" to see the change. I was debating between the F and G fund since the G fund is about ready to give us that penny, but it could come today. Decided to go F as it is more likely tobenefit by any nervousness at the convention this week.

The way I have beenrunning, it wouldn't surprise me if the market made it's leap back to the bull market now that I finally pulled out. That's the way things seem tohappen. :?

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
The way I have been running, it wouldn't surprise me if the market made it's leap back to the bull market now that I finally pulled out. That's the way things seem tohappen. :?
Yes, this is quite the catch-22. This has got to be the one thing that is far, far, faAar "easier said than done".

Rolo's Disposition Indicator has moved from "Annoyed" to "Aggravated" with a forecast of "Dismal"by this week's close and to "Thoroughly Torqued" by Monday, a far fall from "Unfun" just a couple of weeks ago. Is the "RDI" a contrarian signal like all of the other psychological indicators?

So, should I continue to hold out until "Thoroughly Torqued", when there are no bulls left, and then the Market should finally reverse? What if it doesn't reverse? Am I thinking that only because of the whole dismal thing? (a > 10% loss willcause that y'know)

"I rode it out this long, I may as well stick with it since it is probably just about over." is starting to not "do it for me" like it typically does. Seriously, I am starting to get concerned.

[smine]

Since I jumped back in effective today, I had hoped the market would elevate. Seeing it not however made me increase S and C to 30 each, since I figure the price is low. May be sorry but .....:shock:

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
So, should I continue to hold out until "Thoroughly Torqued", when there are no bulls left, and then the Market should finally reverse? What if it doesn't reverse?
If anyone was worried about the convention today is probably the last day they would sell. Which means tomorrow there will be no one left to sell. Which means it will probably be a good day (sell the rumor, buy the news) :shock:. Unless of course we do see some sort of breach in security, or Kerry's numbers really get a lift. Either one will probably trigger more selling.

[Rolo]

Buying a little before the turnaround and having a minor loss beforehand is not all that bad. It is essentially the same as buying after the turnaround, since both are at slightly higher prices than the absolute bottom.However, there isone possible exception: risk.

Buying when the market is still headed down seems more risky than waiting for a reversal. This is why moving averages are starting to look good to me. Thoughts?

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
Buying when the market is still headed down seems more risky than waiting for a reversal. This is why moving averages are starting to look good to me. Thoughts?

For short term investors / traders, waiting for the turnaroundis the safer route no doubt. Not as fun as trying to pick a bottom, but usually more rewarding. The intermediate or longer term investors can still use the indicators as they usually like the longer term risk/reward ratio. Right now the risk/reward is on the side of higher prices a month from today. But we could always go down another 5% before that rebound. So I'd say it's up to the individual investor and their volatility tolerance.

I think using the moving averages are like any other system. It helps take the emotion and guess-work out of trading.

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
For short term investors / traders, waiting for the turnaroundis the safer route no doubt. Not as fun as trying to pick a bottom, but usually more rewarding.
*cough*cough*ahahaemmmm*

:^



[hehe...yes...at work...not hungry enough for lunch yet...idle...playground...]