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thurston
11-06-2006, 04:23 PM
Any good ideas between now 11/5 and christmas? I am guessing (right or wrong) that stocks will be sideways till mid Dec. So I went 70% G and 30% F. Plus it looked like the F fund had a mini ralley. Then Jump back into stocks, probably the I fund for the santa rally. Any comments?

PS. The demo election win has been priced into the market.

Birchtree
11-06-2006, 04:33 PM
I think we'll be rock'em into and around the holidays right into next year. Lilly pad status will pass you bye. This train is in motion and I'm still running in front of the thing.

mayday
11-07-2006, 11:31 AM
I think we'll be rock'em into and around the holidays right into next year. Lilly pad status will pass you bye. This train is in motion and I'm still running in front of the thing.

The bull is in charge. I can imagin Birchtree Bouncing off the walls.

Birchtree
11-07-2006, 11:53 AM
Imagine this: All the prior rallies that ended at a P/E above 18 were followed by declines of at least 25%. The most recent bull market advance from the October 2002 low began at 15.3 times peak earnings, already the highest multiple on record for the start of a bull market advance. The multiple is now in the upper range where prior bull advances have ended. Don't you just cherish the wall of worry? Record earnings will lower the P/Es to keep up with stock prices. No where near a top IMHO. Snort.

mayday
11-07-2006, 12:29 PM
Imagine this: All the prior rallies that ended at a P/E above 18 were followed by declines of at least 25%. The most recent bull market advance from the October 2002 low began at 15.3 times peak earnings, already the highest multiple on record for the start of a bull market advance. The multiple is now in the upper range where prior bull advances have ended. Don't you just cherish the wall of worry? Record earnings will lower the P/Es to keep up with stock prices. No where near a top IMHO. Snort.

No I don't cherish the wall of worry. If they made it easy everyone would be rich. You are very encouraging Birchtree. You do calm my nerves a bit.

Birchtree
11-07-2006, 01:57 PM
From Steven Check of The Blue Chip Investor: While many stocks have been rising, their valuations have not because company earnings have grown at about the same rate as the prices. Snort.

thurston
11-09-2006, 09:22 PM
Of interest from a CNN money article.

"A recent Ned Davis Research study suggests the market could weaken between the elections and the end of the year, if the last 104 years are any guide.

That's because 2006 is a mid-term year for a second-term president. In such years, a change in one or both houses of Congress has usually coincided with the Dow gaining in the months leading up to the election, and then sputtering or sliding through the end of the year.

That's certainly been the case this year, with the major gauges rallying through a surprisingly strong third quarter and month of October. The Dow hit an all-time closing high of 12,163.66 late last month and is up 12 percent year-to-date. All of which makes the market ripe for some profit taking.

Plus, as the old Wall Street saw suggests, markets hate uncertainty and this election is dripping with it.

"The uncertainty around the election suggests that there will be a sharp reaction once we know which party controls the Congress," said William Bernhard, a political science professor at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign."

mlk_man
11-09-2006, 09:25 PM
We already knew this from techy......oh wait, you mean it might not have been a crystal ball after all............:blink:

DohaDon
11-30-2006, 11:39 AM
Hi Folks ! Kind of new to all this but here goes. Does the Fed meet again December 13th. to contemplate a rate hike? Something to consider "between now and Christmas". Appreciate your thoughts

Birchtree
11-30-2006, 12:34 PM
The Fed will meet 12/12 but will not make any policy changes until 3/07 and then they potentially will decrease rates. If they raise rates later it's not a big deal - we are still at historic lows.

DohaDon
11-30-2006, 02:02 PM
Thanks Birch! I just read this online: The Fed had hoisted interest rates 17 times since June 2004, its longest string of increases in its history. Many economists believe the Fed will keep its finger on the interest rate pause button when it meets next on Dec. 12. Economists said Bernanke's comments dashed hopes - held by some in financial markets - that the Fed would soon cut interest rates. "His speech pours water on any notion of a rate cut around the corner," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.

I have been reading your post here for a year or more and appreciate your insite and comments. Have a great one...drg

James48843
12-26-2006, 01:46 AM
So, is the Santa rally on it's way?

James48843
02-05-2007, 10:05 AM
Short term- there HAS to be a pause. Simply has to be.

I grant you that the fundmentals still look good for a great 2007 overall. But nothing ever goes straight up for as long as this train has been rolling.

Short term, we are due for a nice solid pull back- if nothing else than to let more people get on this train.

Birchtree
02-05-2007, 12:11 PM
Potential melt ups are emotionally based; get me in at any price. The S&P 500 is still 5.2% below its March 2000 high, and the Nasdaq Composite Index is a whopping 51% beneath its March 2000 record. The market may be shaping up for a powerful surge. The result: investors too jittery to venture back into stocks dive in feet first, causing stocks to rise even more. Snort.

Griffin
08-08-2007, 05:27 PM
I am currently way ahead of any stock fund so between now and Christmas, I want keep my lead by staying in the market unless I am very confident I can gain a little more ground.

nnuut
08-08-2007, 05:59 PM
That's right, if you got it, KEEP IT because it's yours!!:D Wish I would have thought about that a few weeks ago.:(

BeaverState
09-02-2007, 09:48 AM
I am currently way ahead of any stock fund so between now and Christmas, I want keep my lead by staying in the market unless I am very confident I can gain a little more ground.
Good plan. My only suggestion would be to watch out during the historically weak month of September.

Birchtree
09-02-2007, 02:24 PM
I'm holding to the view that the Dow will close out the year around 15,600. If it does I'll be running in front of the train the whole way just rack'em up.

Griffin
09-19-2007, 07:48 PM
I'm holding to the view that the Dow will close out the year around 15,600. If it does I'll be running in front of the train the whole way just rack'em up.

When you look at a chart, do you ever consider what is a logical progression or do you automatically determine the threshold of fantasy land and take one extra step?

Birchtree
09-19-2007, 08:14 PM
I automatically determine the threshold for fantasyland and then take two steps forward - it's the only way to make serious money.

Griffin
09-19-2007, 10:00 PM
Does that mean the oceanic is made of monopoly money?.....I think Mike Meyers already did this joke in the Austin Powers movies. Is it up to a hundred billion dollars yet?

Birchtree
09-20-2007, 08:19 AM
My dear man you should know the oceanic is made of real money - forty years worth of blood, sweat and tears. I will tell you that during the last two days the value has appreciated by $68K and the account is pushing $1.6M. The tugboat is pushing forward also - up a little over $18.5K for the last two days. I set my tugboat goal to increase $125K this year and I might just succeed if this spectacular momentum persists. Good to see you in a solid buy and hold mode with the S fund - you're being creative finally. The last time we saw 30 to 1 up down ratios was in 1982 and that was a heck of a run. This happened 4 times in the 1950s and the average return on the SPX after 12 months was 34.56%. The bigger risk from my perspective is being out, not being invested - that we seem to agree on. Yup, 15,600 by the end of the year would leave me set. I'm trying to eventually catch up to White - he accumulated $20M.

Griffin
09-20-2007, 09:16 AM
My dear man you should know the oceanic is made of real money - forty years worth of blood, sweat and tears. I will tell you that during the last two days the value has appreciated by $68K and the account is pushing $1.6M. The tugboat is pushing forward also - up a little over $18.5K for the last two days. I set my tugboat goal to increase $125K this year and I might just succeed if this spectacular momentum persists.

Given, that your investment statements are thicker then the LA phone book, I'm suprised (maybe "suspicious" is a more appropriate word) that you know the exact value of your investments on a daily basis.

Here is something you wrote back on May 25th:


Holy sheet Batman that was a $31K hit - I'm still holding out for a $100K month if I can catch a break. Anyway the dividend reinvestments will look better will lower pricing. Just love a south paw in a bull market.

Yet a year ago, you were bragging that the oceanic was sitting at 1.4M

The numbers just don't add up and they never have - I believe your schtick is a fantasy.

About a year ago, you mentioned by ticker, 30 something wall flowers you picked- I ran a quick check on those tickers for 2 mo's, 6 mos' and a year later. While you did manage to pick up two jewels in the bunch, the sum total were underperforming the S&P500.

Wether you care or not is totally irrelevant, but when you make ridiculous claims, they don't go unnoticed. FYI, do with it what you want.

Birchtree
09-20-2007, 10:05 AM
If you go back and read my previous posts you'll pretty much have my portfolio - everything is updated on a daily basis through my broker - not difficult at all. You can be a suspicious nonbeliever all you want - that doesn't bother me because I'm making the dollars. This last correction took me down over $250K but then again I spent an extra $300K buying all the way down, intentionally intensifying my degree of pain - you see I can endure the pain - you simply have to be right and sit tight - so far so good. During the correction I made 199 individual stock purchases outside of dividend reinvestment. For the year to date I've made 18 selective sales and purchased 501 individual stock positions - would you like to pay my capital gains taxes for this year? I'm simply giving people an inside look at how a low profile portfolio functions. I do a great deal of work to remain creative and my next ride has been planned for years. I don't want to make any more profit this year so I'm trying to sit tight, although I just noticed that one of my stocks (CLC) was down over 5 points this morning - tempts me to go after more. Now with a portfoilo of 226 individual stocks the numbers may not add up for you because you don't have all the information - silly man. But if you continue to pay close attention you will undoubtedly learn a few things and will benefit - there is more to life than your TSP fiduciary account. It does take time to acquire wealth and that is the biggest factor you have on your side. You have to save, save, and save some more - there is no easy route to accumulate wealth. But the equity markets do provide an excellent opportunity if one dares to enter the unruly arena. The oceanic is now coiled and poised to make substantial gains - but I planned it that way. Good to hear from you again. Let's talk more.

Griffin
09-20-2007, 11:24 AM
Now with a portfoilo of 226 individual stocks the numbers may not add up for you because you don't have all the information - silly man.

Someone asked me if your 15,600 claim was reasonable. Personally, I don't really care what you have to say, but others do read what you write, and I do believe that you should be concious of that and be considerate of what impacts your comments might have.

My purpose for addressing your comment simply served to demonstrate that you can't back any of this up, and there is no basis for your claims other then bravado and ego. Normally I wouldn't wate my time, but I do have an alterior motive driven by recent events.

You are correct, I don't have all the information - you are very careful to keep all the loose ends free so that there is no continuity between statements. That is further evidence that it's all a bunch of hogwash. Why should anyone have to pay CLOSE attention to see the genius in your work? - why can't you throw it out there in one tidy little package? It would be easy to sanitize an html report of any personnel info.

Get personnel, get angry - be nasty - you show your true colors at moments like these. That's healthy for the board to see from time to time. If it wasn't for the "button pushing" you've been doing to various members of the board, I would'nt be pushing your buttons right now.

nnuut
09-20-2007, 11:55 AM
Hey, I tell people I don't have any other investments and my TSP is about the size of a pissant mound and nobody questions my honesty, works for me!!:cool::laugh:

Birchtree
09-20-2007, 03:21 PM
Griffin,

I take it you have visited The Lounge - if not please do so. I'm in no way angry or hostile. Would you like a phone # at Merrill Lynch to verify my accurracy? Those that know you know you have a tendency to spew bile and are tenaciously intolerant of others. If you want I'll let you know how much money I'm going to lose today - first thing in the morning. As far as I know no one is following any moves I make - I don't have an Ebbchart. However, I do have a propensity for the Elliott Wave, MCOs and MCSUMs. I'll make my money no matter what anyone thinks - shall I make a list of my 226 individual stocks for you to monitor? And when I finally hit the $2M you'll be first on my list for the announcement. Now, what is the problem with a Dow of 15,600. We are at much higher levels now and bigger numbers will come quickly - just be patient.

As far as the situation goes with Mr.Datsun 2000 - it's his problem. He needs to mature and only time will help him with his impatient proclivities. You on the other hand in role as moderator are only trying to protect members of the board - that's admirable, but I'll remind you again that I don't have an Ebbchart.

Griffin
09-20-2007, 05:37 PM
I'm in no way angry or hostile.....you have a tendency to spew bile and are tenaciously intolerant of others.

really? - you are aware that "others" is comprised of you and .....we'll, you now that machinist mate has long since departed. :blink:


shall I make a list of my 226 individual stocks for you to monitor?

yes please...... and include the percentage of holding by value (not shares) while your at it. :rolleyes:

Birchtree
09-20-2007, 05:59 PM
Yes, I will admit the machinist mate did bring out my best offensive. And if I recall and if you remember there was a time in the not to distant past that I fondly and politely referred to you as Mr. Malignity - did you think I was being facetious? I'll sling you up a list of my holdings but I don't think I have them categorized by percentages. That would be too intimate - I can't be responsible if some one decided to emulate the portfolio. I'll be back in awhile.

Birchtree
09-20-2007, 07:21 PM
OK folks here is the Birchtree's list of stocks in the oceanic portfolio - I won't give you the number of shares in each position because a girl has to keep some secrets. Anyone can set up the names and attach any number to the shares and get a rough run of the portfolio volatility. Have fun: remember if you buy any of these you'll be helping me achieve nirvana. Here they are - so many wall flowers waiting to bloom into Queens of Beauty: ABB,ANF,ABM,AYI,AE,AAP,AES,AG,AGU,AIN,ALB,AA,AYE,L NT,ALY,AEE,AME,AEP,AP,ANN,AIT,ILA,ARM,T,ATO,ATW,AV A,AVX,AZZ,BEZ,BAC,B,BBG,BAY,BZH,BMS,BDK,BKH,BMY,BA M,CRI,CX,CNP,CTX,CF,CNG,CEM,CSK,CBI,CZN,CLC,CNH,CX G,CMC,CPX,CRK,CNX,CVG,CPO,CR,CSS,CSX,CFI,DHI,DELL, DDR,DEO,UFS,DHT,DPL,DRC,DW,DMHY,DUK,DY,EP,ELN,EQ,E LX,EAS,EBF,EXM,EXC,EXH,FOE,FE,FLE,FLO,FDP,FBN,GDI, IT,GMT,GE,GWR,GPC,GLT,GPX,GRA,GXP,GB,GBX,GW,HAL,HB I,HRS,HHS,HNR,HVT,HEI,HNZ,HPC,HXL,HD,HRL,HBP,IVZ,J AH,KMT,KG,KEX,KMGB,KOP,KR,KRO,LZB,LG,LMS,LII,LBY,L TD,LNN,LDG,LPX,LZ,LUB,LDL,MCS,MAS,MWV,MLAB,MSB,MDS ,MZ,MOS,MOT,MLI,NBR,NSHA,NGS,NAVZ,NFX,NI,NL,NHY,NU ,ODC,OLN,OMN,OKE,PBY,PCR,PFE,PVH,POL,PTBT,KWR,RRI, RKT,RDC,RES,RPM,RT,SLE,SGP,SEN,SRE,SHW,SSD,SLI,AOS ,SO,SE,S,SMP,SR,SXI,SXC,SPN,SUP,SVU,SYY,TSM,TLM,TS TY,TLAB,TEN,TRA,SNS,TNB,TOC,TWX,TKR,TIE,TRV,TRN,TW IN,UGI,UDRL,VHI,WAB,WB,WPP,WMK,WLM,WR,WGL,WLL,INT, WOR,DNP,MSE,APU,APL,PVR. That is the list that is coiled to make me several $M over the next three years - believe it or not. Griffin, what you do with it is your business but I hope you can have fun at least.

Spaf
09-21-2007, 01:00 AM
Wow!

We now have a NEW market: The BT-300!........:D

Spaf
09-21-2007, 01:09 AM
I guess it was a little over a year ago we had a member that was very rude and insulting! Very!
Well it was Griffin and Burchtree that defended the message board and the position of most members.
You see I remember!.........:)

Thanks guys!

BTW: BT where did you put that "daisy cutter" I can't seem to find it?

Birchtree
09-21-2007, 09:12 AM
My oceanic portfolio gave back $10K yesterday - don't cry for me Argentina. Today looks like a nice open with the possibility of serious money being made. A 10% Dow move from here is 15,600. Since the 1950s every time there has been a 30 to 1 up down volume move there is usually one more to arrive within 4-6 weeks - if that happens the SPX on average was up 9.87% in 3 months, 17.85% 6 months later.

Bullitt
11-19-2007, 11:09 PM
If you build it they will come. Say hello to our Northern Neighbors. Their habits aren't hurting our economy.

http://www.wkbw.com/news/local/11100641.html

James48843
11-19-2007, 11:30 PM
Nice.

Perhaps they'll bring some Molson's down for trade, Eh?

budnipper1
11-20-2007, 01:50 AM
Nice.

Perhaps they'll bring some Molson's down for trade, Eh?



:nuts:
2621

coach222
11-27-2007, 12:19 PM
Anybody know where I can get a convertible bond with an 11% yield?

Sounds like "junK" to me.

coach222
12-06-2007, 03:37 PM
Wonder who the government will find to finance NEW mortgages.

If government can "arrange" to cut the risk premium at will, who will be willing to buy mortgage bonds?

Don't price controls create shortages? I seem to remember something like that from Econ 101.

Hmmmmm...

nnuut
12-06-2007, 04:28 PM
Wonder who the government will find to finance NEW mortgages.

If government can "arrange" to cut the risk premium at will, who will be willing to buy mortgage bonds?

Don't price controls create shortages? I seem to remember something like that from Econ 101.

Hmmmmm...
The one that get their rate frozen won't have to refinance. The ones that choose to refinance to a fixed rate, or other type of mortgage, I don't know, but I would think it will be with the same mortgage holder!:cool:

coach222
12-06-2007, 06:46 PM
I was really only discussing new bond issues not existing bonds. But, if I were an ARM bond holder, I would seriously consider selling the bonds at a fire sale (even further erosion of home value) if the risk exceeded the ROI or if this "solution" only postpones the foreclosure.

I currently hold several mortgage bonds (all fixed at different maturity dates). I get paid interest based on the risk and maturity, But if I knew the "government" was going to interfere with the terms of those bonds (n/a in my case...yet...) I wouldn't have purchased them in the first place. The "government" is overriding my risk premium.

By fixing the interest rates (price control) they have taken away the premium for holding the bonds. Without that risk premium, I won't be purchasing any more bonds (shortage of bondholders). A shortage of bond holders equates to a shortage of money available for mortgages.

Econ 101 - price control = shortage

This solution won't fix the problem unless bond purchasers are willing to accept lower returns (more risk) for the money they are lending.

nnuut
12-06-2007, 07:27 PM
OH, Bonds! Makes sense to me and can cause big liquidity problems. If there is no money to loan we surely can't get credit. As you mentioned it isn't right that the bond holders lose money on this deal, but I surely don't know what their plan is on how to manage this part of the Bailout.:worried: GOOD Point!:cool:

vic
12-07-2007, 08:31 AM
I see a lot of lawsuits coming.

Bullitt
12-14-2007, 06:01 PM
This is supposed to be a record year for capital gains distributions and special dividends in the mutual fund industry. Most will should be dishing them out around middle of December time. You can get an estimate as to how much you can expect by checking your fund's website. Can't wait to reinvest all of mine.