View Full Version : Soooo....is this it?
Finally the bulls stood up to the bears yesterday. Will the gains quickly undo the losses over the past two weeks?
tsptalk
07-21-2004, 02:59 PM
Fear? :shock: Let's get it over with.
Stockssuck about right now.:P
As I said in my other post, I'm hiding in G for a while. We have great gains one day, then great losses the next. You just can't even break even for now. The losses are outweighing the gains in stocks.
Buy low and sell high... I'm in the market for the next 30-40 years, so none of this bothers me. I'd really hate to be close to retirement right now, though.
GOT THAT RIGHT!
Will probably go back into stocks around payday.
Ow...quit it.
Yeah, the market started moving up and I bought more stocks and even sold my short position. A co-worker, in the afternoon, told me the market took a dive, so I checked my Scottrade...OW...quit it.
Being bullish is getting to be very expensive. :?
Cri-men-ee...the Market is a Roulette wheel...red one time, black the next time, hit REFRESH...where she stops, nobody knows!
nnuut
07-22-2004, 08:34 PM
Hi, i'm new to the forum, but have been following it for about 7 months. so far I have lost about $5,000 bucks tryin' all of these different strategies. Is it just the market or is it me?:XWant to make some money, but I think it's gonna be hard to make up that 5 Grand even if the market goes sky high. Only have around $50,000 to work with. Mabye I should hide in the "G" until this is over, but I'm afarad I'll miss the big one if I don't stay full invested. Now I'm 50% C and 50% S. KILLIN ME!!!:sNice to be here and learn.
tsptalk
07-22-2004, 09:27 PM
Welcome nnuut! It sounds like it has been an expensive learning experience for you. I'm not sure how you lost 10% but I guess it's possibleif your timing was real bad.It's hard for me to reasure someone who has been through a beatinglike that but again I don't think hiding at this point would be wise. We may not be at the bottom but time-wise it is getting close. Once that democratic convention concludes and the hype ofthe possibility of a change in presidency calms down, I believe the market will be ready. The cliche that the market hates uncertainty is pretty accurate.
Better luck in the second half.
Tom
GTO1970
07-22-2004, 10:14 PM
nnuut wrote:
Hi, i'm new to the forum, but have been following it for about 7 months. so far I have lost about $5,000 bucks tryin' all of these different strategies. Is it just the market or is it me?:XWant to make some money, but I think it's gonna be hard to make up that 5 Grand even if the market goes sky high. Only have around $50,000 to work with. Mabye I should hide in the "G" until this is over, but I'm afarad I'll miss the big one if I don't stay full invested. Now I'm 50% C and 50% S. KILLIN ME!!!:sNice to be here and learn.
Welcome nnuut!
We all want to make $$ But, times are tough calling this (head off the chicken) market. and the only loses you really have are just on paper or on some hard drive somewhere, it was never in your hand. we all have suffered paper loses and still keepcoming off the stool for the next roundwearing a big smile:D on our faces because we pretty sure they can't take our birthdays away from us! but, I bet Rolo will work on finding a way. (LOL)Hang in there! it will come.
Lets all giveTom Three-Cheers for his hard work!!!
:^:^:^
GTO
tsptalk
07-22-2004, 10:21 PM
GTO1970 wrote:
Lets all giveTom Three-Cheers for his hard work!!!
That's about all I've given you lately :#, but thanks.
azanon
07-22-2004, 10:33 PM
I'm rooting for you too Tom. Maybe TSP.gov someday will create a "T" fund, which basically lets federal employees put 100% into it, and Tom can actively move it so we dont have to do it ourselves every few days. (for a small fee of course, hehe)
The market will recover ... eventually. We could very well see stagnation / more losses through November until the election is decided... whether or not the economy is growing.
One positive in this for long term investors like myself is that my bi-weekly fund share purchases will be at bargain prices.
I think we'll be in much better shape a year from now.
GTO1970 wrote:
we all have suffered paper loses and still keepcoming off the stool for the next roundwearing a big smile:D on our faces because we pretty sure they can't take our birthdays away from us! but, I bet Rolo will work on finding a way. (LOL)Hang in there! it will come.
Whaaa? No birthdays means no getting older! :D
At least you didn't put "Rolo" in ALL CAPS like so many do for some bizarre reason. ;)
[line]
Welcome, nnuut! You aren't the only one paying tuition to the School of Hard Knocks. There is much to be learned from doing what doesn't seem to work.
Don't let setbacks get you discouraged (I am feeling a little of that right now...frankly, I feel like a dumb animal chasing its tail--expending a lot of energy and not getting anywhere, and a third party somewhere is entertained), just step back, take a breath, and diagnose the problem and regroup.
nnuut
07-23-2004, 10:02 AM
Thanks GTO, need some encouragement. Nice Car, is it yours? I'm tempted to drop everything in the "G" until this stuff is over, but if I do stocks will go so high you can't see the top and I will lose out. What to do, what to do. That has happened to me before. So I just sit here and watch my balance go down every day!:shock:What?
nnuut
07-23-2004, 10:05 AM
Rolo, thanks for the reply. Diagnose the problem and regroup? I think my diagnostic ability may not be the best in the world. Gotta do something though. :shock:What?
nnuut wrote:
Gotta do something though. :shock:What?
baha, I dunno...I am digging a hole in this sand here so I can stick my head in it.
Seriously...I am holding my position...none of my holdings have bombed (well, one, but I fixed that and got my revenge...muahaha), so given the context, everything is fine, so I am riding it out. If the market breaks down into new lows, then I will be concerned, but right now we are on course for buy signals.
My tweaking of my strategy henceforth will be to pay closer attention to the moving averages and follow their lead, for they give the charts more meaning and context. (Yes, I gleaned that from several folks here.) I am a firm believer in listening to what the charts are saying. You cannot argue with the Market, you will lose every time.
I also learned that I need to be more precarious and not so afraid of missing gains. I also learned for myself what so many have told me: I do not give myself enough credit and that I think too much. I need to follow my instincts more rather than rationalise them away. Fortunately I am remembering what others' have told me (and what psychology has told me) in the past that I am far too critical of myself, demand too much of myself, and"beat myself up";so far Ihave avoided getting thoroughly discouraged.
Now let me dig my hole. :D
Rolo wrote:
My tweaking of my strategy henceforth will be to pay closer attention to the moving averages and follow their lead, for they give the charts more meaning and context.
:^I do keep an eye on the moving averages, but it's a really tough call. It look like the losses were leveling out and then BAM! You hit a big hole. I can promise one thing though, one day I WILL cash my shares in for a profit, just hope it comes sooner than later because I would like to to get another chance to increase my profits before the year is out. :!
nnuut
07-23-2004, 10:47 AM
mlk_man wrote:
Rolo wrote:
My tweaking of my strategy henceforth will be to pay closer attention to the moving averages and follow their lead, for they give the charts more meaning and context.
:^I do keep an eye on the moving averages, but it's a really tough call. It look like the losses were leveling out and then BAM! You hit a big hole. I can promise one thing though, one day I WILL cash my shares in for a profit, just hope it comes sooner than later because I would like to to get another chance to increase my profits before the year is out. :!
Thanks, think I'll stick it out 50% "C" and 50% "S"? I guess???:?
nnuut wrote:
Thanks, think I'll stick it out 50% "C" and 50% "S"? I guess???:?
Ya, I'm 60S/30C atm, I think. er, I mean 60S/40C, baha. Back to my hole!
hehe, I like that avatar, nnuut.
smine
07-23-2004, 11:13 AM
Don't like being out when money is being made; don't like losing it either.....going C 25% S 25% effective Monday. Maybe it will open low and gain all day long on Monday!;)
That's what my crystal ball says smine. :P
tsptalk
07-23-2004, 02:04 PM
Last hour. Dow down 116. Panic?
C'mon smart money. Let's see if there are any weekend bargain hunters out there.
Man, what a crazy week! I came back to the S fund a day too early- yesterday. I should have come back on Monday- a heck of a day to buy low!
Rod wrote:
I should have come back on Monday- a heck of a day to buy low!
Lets just hope we're not saying the same thing about the following Monday!
Sounds like someone has a case of the Mondays. :D
GTO1970
07-24-2004, 08:47 AM
nnuut wrote:
Rolo, thanks for the reply. Diagnose the problem and regroup? I think my diagnostic ability may not be the best in the world. Gotta do something though. :shock:What?
Het nnuut,
Maybe this will work for you, it does for me
When you start getting close to a your threshold of loss or pain don't panic! just start pulling very small amounts off the table each day like maybe 5% and tuck it in to G Fund. That way you limit your chances of missing a rebound and also know you cutting your daily losses. this take the edge off. Kinda like drinking a ice cold beer ona very hot summer day, it doesn't cool the day down, but sure does taste good!
I have been 100% stocks since the first of the month and now i'm getting close to my 5% loss threshold and started last monday pulling 5% off each day and now have 25% sitting in G fund waiting on the 10.49 G Fund bump and cocked and ready to be shot back into stocks when the tide turns
just a suggestion
GTO
Could this be the day? On April 22, 2004, the S fund hit 13.27 in price. It traded sideways or down for 17 days until it hit it's low of 12.16 on May 17th. On June 30th, the S fund hit 13.22 and has traded sideways or down for 17 days to yesterdays low of 12.18. Maybe today is the day we get a little bounce back and then start going up from here. Who knows. I sure hope so. Plus, 17 is my lucky number. :^
That sure would be nice. At least I'd still get today's gains since I won't be 100% F until tomorrow.
Looking good, come on baby....................:u
Hmmmm...what is this strange colour on my Scottrade? ....I have seen this before... errr.....Green! Yeah, that is it... It is "green"... I remember now...
NAZ up 16... C'MON BABY!!! COME TO PAPA!!!:^
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040727/D843769O0.html
According to this article, consumer confidence has hit a two-year high in July, posting a number significantly higher than what investors expected.
mlk_man wrote:
Could this be the day? On April 22, 2004, the S fund hit 13.27 in price. It traded sideways or down for 17 days until it hit it's low of 12.16 on May 17th. On June 30th, the S fund hit 13.22 and has traded sideways or down for 17 days to yesterdays low of 12.18. Maybe today is the day we get a little bounce back and then start going up from here. Who knows. I sure hope so. Plus, 17 is my lucky number. :^Funny how things happen to mimic each other sometimes. :shock:
What an EGGZELENT day to be in stocks!:^
nnuut
07-27-2004, 02:34 PM
CHAIN WIPPED again!:s100% G, can't get in until Friday!:?
"I think it's pretty solid," Feinman said of the employment gains. But he added that "it hasn't been super fast - it's like an oil tanker changing directions."
He better leave my oil tankers alone! :D
At least he didn't say "like the Titanic changing direction".
Rod wrote:
What an EGGZELENT day to be in stocks!:^
Ya, but it has a loooong way to go to make up for the recent crappiness.
Rolo wrote:
"I think it's pretty solid," Feinman said of the employment gains. But he added that "it hasn't been super fast - it's like an oil tanker changing directions."
He better leave my oil tankers alone! :D
At least he didn't say "like the Titanic changing direction".
Rod wrote:
What an EGGZELENT day to be in stocks!:^
Ya, but it has a loooong way to go to make up for the recent crappiness.
You got that right! I'll be lucky just to break even from this week's losses.
tsptalk
07-27-2004, 02:51 PM
nnuut wrote:
CHAIN WIPPED again!:s100% G, can't get in until Friday!:?
Why not Thursday?
nnuut
07-27-2004, 02:52 PM
Missed the noon deadline due to some stupid requirement to WORK, how foolish!:P
tsptalk
07-27-2004, 02:59 PM
You have until noon ETWednesday to be in Thursday.
tsptalk wrote:
You have until noon ETWednesday to be in Thursday.
You can smile NOW nnuut!!!:D
nnuut
07-27-2004, 03:07 PM
Thats right Tom, it is Tuesday! So What you think about Thursday? I think I'm coming in 65% S 35% C. Watch the bottom drop out!:shock:
tsptalk
07-27-2004, 03:34 PM
nnuut wrote:
Thats right Tom, it is Tuesday! So What you think about Thursday? I think I'm coming in 65% S 35% C. Watch the bottom drop out!:shock:
The way my short term calls have gone, I'd hate to guess. My goal has been, and still is, to be fully invested. I just decided to take the convention off just in case something happened. It looks like the market has already priced in that "something" so when nothing happened, it jumped up. I don't know if we are out of the water yet but I think getting invested should be the goal, sooner rather than later. Some may disagree. I will get back in no later than Friday, but it may be Thursday. I just hope there aren't any car bombs or worse before the convention ends. It may give a buying opportunity but it will scare the bejesus out of this country.
nnuut
07-27-2004, 03:43 PM
It surely would, thats why I went to the G fund. If I go north go south and you will be on the right track. Wrong Way NNUUT!
Timer
07-27-2004, 04:51 PM
nnuut wrote:
Thats right Tom, it is Tuesday! So What you think about Thursday? I think I'm coming in 65% S 35% C. Watch the bottom drop out!:shock:nnuut, I'm jumpin in with ya 65/35. :^
GTO1970
07-27-2004, 06:30 PM
nnuut wrote:
It surely would, thats why I went to the G fund. If I go north go south and you will be on the right track. Wrong Way NNUUT!
One more time. When you start getting close to a your threshold of loss or pain don't panic! just start pulling very small amounts off the table each day like maybe 5% and tuck it in to G Fund. That way you limit your chances of missing a rebound and also know you cutting your daily losses. this take the edge off. Kinda like drinking a ice cold beer ona very hot summer day, it doesn't cool the day down, but sure does taste good!
I have been 100% stocks since the first of the month and now i'm getting close to my 5% loss threshold and started last monday pulling 5% off each day and now have 25% sitting in G fund waiting on the 10.49 G Fund bump and cocked and ready to be shot back into stocks when the tide turns
just a suggestion
GTO
GTO
GTO1970
07-27-2004, 06:41 PM
I pull 5% more out of stocks monday and caught the penny bounce in G Fund on 30% and was still vested 20C, 40S and 10I and caught rebound today! I am reversing course and going back into stocks 5% each day starting tommarrow
GTO
nnuut
07-27-2004, 07:06 PM
GTO,
That easing in and out strategysounds good. GuessI'm thinking with the wrong side of my brain. Just wantnot to miss a big jump and jumping into the fire half the time. Kinda like the Mlk man's system, seems to work for him. Mabye a meld of his system your strategy and Tom's knowledge might work for me. Thanks for the help.You guys are GREAT.:^
nnuut
07-27-2004, 07:09 PM
Timer wrote:
nnuut wrote:
Thats right Tom, it is Tuesday! So What you think about Thursday? I think I'm coming in 65% S 35% C. Watch the bottom drop out!:shock:nnuut, I'm jumpin in with ya 65/35. :^
Timer,
Were GONNA KILLEM'!:^
GTO1970
07-27-2004, 07:54 PM
nnuut wrote:
GTO,
That easing in and out strategysounds good. GuessI'm thinking with the wrong side of my brain. Just wantnot to miss a big jump and jumping into the fire half the time. Kinda like the Mlk man's system, seems to work for him. Mabye a meld of his system your strategy and Tom's knowledge might work for me. Thanks for the help.You guys are GREAT.:^
nnuut,
BINGO!!! I consider myself as a long termer in stocks with the TOM FACTOR incorporated! Tom has made me Money$$ and has saved me Money$$ since I joined TSPTalk and I follow Tom's advice most of the time. but, I also pool the other Talkers advice too, and it give me the direction to flow. I just do it in a slower rate! Base your moves on the opposite you expect to happen andbe surprised if it didn't happen
GTO
I've got one thing to say "S Fund".........................................:I
The way things are shaping up now, I'm glad I'm nowin F. At least I'll be able to keep my gains from yesterday.
God Bless:)
3 words:
BUY LOW FRIDAY
;)
I'd do it today for tomorrow. Or better yet, Last Friday for yesterday. :P
mlk_man wrote:
I'd do it today for tomorrow. Or better yet, Last Friday for yesterday. :P
LOL!
I agree...If a rally has begun, the longer you wait to buy, the more you risk missing gains.
I'm a bit worried!!! Seems as though we are giving back ALLL of our gains from yesterday. Oh is me.......................:end:
nnuut
07-28-2004, 12:16 PM
Can't stand the pressure!!! Out to the "G", I'll see what it looks like for a Friday. Pluck, Pluck chicken OIL-------->:}
Rolo wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
I'd do it today for tomorrow. Or better yet, Last Friday for yesterday. :P
LOL!
I agree...If a rally has begun, the longer you wait to buy, the more you risk missing gains.
T'aint no rally beginning anytime soon!;)
She's coming back folks!!:shock:
Looks like stocks may be bouncing back! Hopefully for you all's sake who are currently in, it will close green. I'm root'n for ya!:D
GOOD LUCK!:^
nnuut wrote:
Can't stand the pressure!!! Out to the "G", I'll see what it looks like for a Friday. Pluck, Pluck chicken OIL-------->:}
More like Chicken Little ("The sky is falling!") hehe
Wait for confirmation...4-10 days from yesterday.
Despite the market average, all my stocks (except SIRI and XMSR) had ~1.5% gain, which may be a leading indicator for the market as a whole.
Rolo wrote:
nnuut wrote:
Can't stand the pressure!!! Out to the "G", I'll see what it looks like for a Friday. Pluck, Pluck chicken OIL-------->:}
More like Chicken Little ("The sky is falling!") hehe
Wait for confirmation...4-10 days from yesterday.
Despite the market average, all my stocks (except SIRI and XMSR) had ~1.5% gain, which may be a leading indicator for the market as a whole.
:D:P:D
nnuut
07-28-2004, 03:22 PM
:ooHee! Hee! Friday looks better to me, Pluck Pluck! Chicken grease:}:^
Rod wrote:
Rolo wrote:
nnuut wrote:
Can't stand the pressure!!! Out to the "G", I'll see what it looks like for a Friday. Pluck, Pluck chicken OIL-------->:}
More like Chicken Little ("The sky is falling!") hehe
Wait for confirmation...4-10 days from yesterday.
Despite the market average, all my stocks (except SIRI and XMSR) had ~1.5% gain, which may be a leading indicator for the market as a whole.
:D:P:D
I've been tracking SIRI and XMSR for the last month since you mentioned them.
SIRI has really been slipping, while XMSR sort of leveled out.
Are you still happy with them?
Some info for you Rolo that may be useful... I stopped tracking a few days ago:
oopps... that didn't come out right.
What's your email address, Rolo?
Rod wrote:
SIRI has really been slipping, while XMSR sort of leveled out.
Are you still happy with them?
Mostly yes and a little no.
These are the only things I bought for the long-term. Barron's wrote about them around November 2002-January 2003 and I knew I had to scoop some of them up early, so my perspective is a little different with these two. First, the long-term intent, and second, at $0.75 and $9.75 share prices, it was hard to go wrong.
I expected SIRI to stay at $4 by now, but it fell right back to last year's price; they are not growing as expected and XM did not help by recently removing advertising from its programming. XMSR has gained subscribers tremendously and its price reflects that. XMSR pays dividends to its preferred stock with common stock shares, so it is continuously diluting shares. Note that neither of these companies are turning a profit yet, so the stock prices will be fickle. Value investors will quickly scream "dot-bomb", but the satellite radio industry is hardly the same thing; you do not launch multiple satellites in orbit without a good business plan. In owning both, I own the whole market.
My PT has SIRI in it and I love it. I enjoy music a lot, particularly stuff you will not hear on regular radio, and I am part of a huge customer-base. I had zero problems with it and it was a blessing on my drive to Canada and back. Incidentally, from what I gathered from a minimal-English-speaking French-Canadian, their equivalent of our FCC has not permitted satellite radio yet, but it is in the works. (He had the same PT I do, only no Sirius roof-wart, which is standard on it, so I was curious.) So look for a boon in that industry's customer-base soon.
I would suggest looking for a good buy point for both of them and hold onto it for several years. I am not expecting these to be momentum-run-ups-in-a-flash-then-dump'em type stocks.
Good luck to all of you in C&S... looks like you may have a good day!:^
Opening bell today may not be pretty... but hopefully things may shape up.:?
ahhhhhhhh.... I just LOVE seeing GREEN!!!:^
WiseOne
07-30-2004, 11:48 PM
Tom, I just noticed a pattern with your allocation transfer recommendations between funds. In March of this yearyou recommendedeleven different changes during the month, Aprilnine different changes, Mayeight changes, Juneseven changes and Julysix changes. Does this mean that August may result in five suggested switches between funds? ;)
tsptalk
07-31-2004, 09:56 PM
WiseOne wrote:
Tom, I just noticed a pattern with your allocation transfer recommendations between funds. In March of this yearyou recommendedeleven different changes during the month, Aprilnine different changes, Mayeight changes, Juneseven changes and Julysix changes. Does this mean that August may result in five suggested switches between funds? ;)
haha... And July was the worst month for me return-wise. Maybe I better pick up the pace again :)
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