Warren Buffett

[tsptalk]

Warren Buffett Dumps Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines As Coronavirus Pandemic Slams Industry


Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) has sold off millions of shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) over the past few days, regulatory filings showed on Friday. That sent Delta stock, Southwest stock and other airline stocks lower after hours.
https://www.investors.com/news/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-sells-delta-stock-southwest-stock-coronavirus/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo


https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/040320c.gif

[Rod]

I am assuming he sold at a loss. He obviously sees any gov. bailout diluting shares. Just like Cramer said, you don't want to own any cruise or airlines. Especially if the gov. will have an equity stake. But, what about BA? That seems to be doing OK. Won't the gov. have an equity stake in it? I did find this article pertaining to the gov. having an equity stake in BA:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/24/boeing-ceo-rejects-talk-of-government-equity-stake.aspx


Speaking on Fox Business on Tuesday, Calhoun reiterated his call for federal support, but said he might reject aid if it required selling an equity stake to the government. "If you attach too many things to it, of course you take a different course," Calhoun said.

[tsptalk]

I am assuming he sold at a loss.

I think he bought it when the Wright Brothers were still running it. :)

[Bullitt]

RE: Airlines. Insider selling has been rampant since February 28 but every one of them will claim it had nothing to do with market climate.

UAL: Kirby Scott, President. Unloaded $1.024 Million worth of shares on February 28. Then on March 15, he announces this:


We took early, aggressive action because we have been determined to do everything possible to avoid painful steps that affect your paycheck. But, based on the severity of the situation, that no longer appears realistic.

This weekend, we began conversations with our union leadership about how to reduce our payroll expense in a way that minimizes what we know will be painful for all of us. Earlier this evening, we convened a call with Corporate Officers to update them on the severity of the situation and let them know we will be cutting their salary by 50%.

https://hub.united.com/2020-03-15-a-message-from-oscar-munoz-and-scott-kirby-2645495847.html

[Rod]

I think he bought it when the Wright Brothers were still running it. :)

Likely. :D

[Bullitt]

From early March DAL filings. So yeah, it appears he lost around 50%. I wonder how many people plowed their savings into these sinkholes after seeing he started buying airlines in 2016 and I wonder how much of their 'bump' was due to him putting a stake in them.


Berkshire acquired more than 976,000 shares for about $45.3 million, or an average price of $46.40, according to a filing Monday.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-delta-air-lines

[Bullitt]

Speculation on the part of the author who, ironically, holds BRK.B shares. I'd rather see the old man making take some big equity stakes in other equities.


Based on SEC filings, Warren Buffett may have bought back $5 billion in Berkshire stock.

In the past, Buffett has said he would be willing to buy back shares, provided they traded at a compelling discount to the market. He initially set a metric of 1.1 times the company’s book value, subsequently raised it to 1.2, and ultimately revised it to the vaguely-defined “below intrinsic value.”

This strict policy has resulted in a few small buybacks over the years, most notably in 2012 and 2018.

We still don’t know with absolute certainty if Berkshire repurchased the “missing” $5 billion worth of shares. If it did, the firm waited for a reasonably attractive valuation – and a time when the worst of the pandemic uncertainty had passed.

https://www.ccn.com/berkshires-rumored-5-billion-trade-is-classic-warren-buffett/

[Bullitt]

$813M worth of BAC purchased from 7/20-7/22.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000120919120043419/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000120919120043419/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000120919120043419/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

[Bullitt]

Another $187M in BAC purchased yesterday.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000120919120043793/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

Closing in on 1B shares.

[Bullitt]

Past three days he purchased half a billion dollars more BAC. Now holds 1,019,267,705 shares - easily surpassing 1B.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000089924320020822/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

Buffet must see value here and that is good because markets will need financials to start trending upward if this is to continue.

[Bullitt]

See SEC Form 4's in previous posts.

Time for sector rotation from tech to financials? These transactions aren't blind. I wouldn't be surprised if there are favorable terms in the new unemployment 'deal' for large banks.


Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc has spent $2.07 billion on Bank of America Corp shares since mid-July, after winning regulatory permission to increase what was already its largest common stock holding other than Apple Inc

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bank-of-america-berkshire/buffetts-berkshire-bought-2-07-billion-bofa-stock-since-mid-july-has-11-9-stake-idUSKCN2512AW

[Bullitt]

Wonder what they see in BAC as opposed to GS? Probably the 1MDB scandal for one.

Big reason for the gains in Berkshire overall are the aggressive stock buybacks which nobody ever seems to criticize.


Berkshire has been an active seller in some significant stock holdings during the pandemic. Berkshire sold out of all of its airline holdings and more recently, disclosed that it had slashed the bulk of its holdings in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The firm has been buying shares of Bank of America Corp., according to regulatory filings.

Berkshire increased its buyback plan in the quarter, adding about $5 billion of its stock. It purchased $1.74 billion in Berkshire stock a quarter ago. Berkshire went years without buying back its stock. Mr. Buffett has long argued that he could better increase shareholder value through investments than through buybacks or dividends.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/berkshire-hathaways-profit-jumps-as-market-rebound-boosts-results-11596890066?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1

[Bullitt]

Interesting to note that in his latest filing from June 30, he cut back on JPM by 60% and WFC by 25%. In August he loaded up on more BAC, but that was after the filing. Completely out of airlines.

Bugs will be drooling over his purchase of $563M of GOLD, that's Barrick Gold. This was his only newly opened position.

[tsptalk]

When It Comes to JPMorgan, Warren Buffett Isn’t Buying the Spin from the Fed and the Street


Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, is apparently not buying the story that Powell is attempting to sell to the public. According to Berkshire Hathaway’s 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the quarter ending June 30, 2020, Buffett dumped 35.5 million shares of JPMorgan Chase or 61.5 percent of his 57.7 million share holding in the bank.

Buffett also dumped the remainder of his position in Goldman Sachs, which amounted to 1.9 million shares. Buffett had already exited 84 percent of his shares of Goldman Sachs in the first quarter of the year.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/08/when-it-comes-to-jpmorgan-warren-buffett-isnt-buying-the-spin-from-the-fed-and-the-street/

[Bullitt]

Puzzling, he's buying more BAC though.

[Bullitt]

For the Buffet fans, his latest filing shows he nearly completely unloaded WFC and PNC. Sold 40% of his previously disclosed stake in GOLD (which the bugs were surely hoping he'd have been buying more of), and purchased MRK, ABBV, PFE, BMY, clearly spreading his bets on a vaccine.

[tsptalk]

Warren Buffett's favorite indicator is at a dangerous level, but he just bought these stocks anyway


The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is now at a record high amid the latest climb to records in the broader market. In doing the math, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 195.7% — up sharply from 175% or so when applying third quarter GDP data.

The figure is well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-indicator-is-at-a-dangerous-level-but-he-just-bought-these-stocks-anyway-115440143.html

[Bullitt]

I heard someone say the Buffet indicator doesn't work anymore and is no longer relevant with the way companies make money today.

I still think it's relevant, but irrational exuberance can last a long time.

Buffet sold out of his PFE position completely. I guess that's considered a sell the news event as we don't really know what the vaccine profits will be for Fizzy.

[Bullitt]

RE: Buffet Indicator. Note 2000 and 2009.

48587

[tsptalk]

Warren Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway is seeing ‘very substantial inflation’ and raising prices
PUBLISHED MON, MAY 3 20219:06 AM EDT


“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” Warren Buffett said at the conglomerate’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday. “We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

Berkshire Hathaway owns one of the nation’s largest homebuilders Clayton Homes, along with companies such as Benjamin Moore paints and Shaw flooring.

Inflation has begun to accelerate recently due to multiple factors, including increasing demand and struggles with some areas of the supply chain, as well as just easier comparisons with the pace of a year ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/warren-buffett-says-berkshire-hathaway-is-seeing-very-substantial-inflation-and-raising-prices.html

[Bullitt]

Most recent 10Q report for 2nd quarter released and I'm starting to wonder if he's become a contrarian indicator. Without his huge wager on AAPL, he'd have been left in the dust years ago. In any case, it might be time to buy oil companies again.


Berkshire was a seller of just over half its stake in Chevron (CVX), ending the first quarter with 23.6 million shares, now worth around $2.4 billion, and it reduced a stake in Merck (MRK) by 37% to 17.9 million shares, now worth about $1.4 billion.

The Chevron and Merck sales surprised some Berkshire watchers, as the company accumulated those stakes in late 2020 and Buffett made use of a confidential regulatory filing to hide his accumulation of Chevron stock.

Wells Fargo stock has doubled since the fall and other former Berkshire holdings— JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS)—are way above the prices at which Berkshire was a seller last year. Berkshire has left more than $10 billion on the table with those sales.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stock-moves-51628798435

[Bullitt]

Something to think about. Luck plays a large part in retirement as well since drawing down your savings in a bear market doesn't work very well. 2009 vs. 2000.


Let’s say you have two people, Person A and Person B. They are both value investors who follow the strategy laid out by Benjamin Graham in the 1930s.

Person A was born in 1930. Person B was born seventy years later, in 2000. They both start applying the Graham investing strategy at a very early age, let’s say when they were 15 years.

Person A becomes Warren Buffett, once the richest man on earth, who experienced one of the biggest booms in value stocks when he was young. Person B loses half of their money because value stocks are out of favor in the 2010s.

Same strategy, same actions, different times, different outcomes. Becoming rich and famous is mostly a matter of luck.

https://dariusforoux.com/rich-and-famous/

[Bullitt]

For the Buffett watchers:

Added to CVX again (after selling half stake in 2021), LSXMA, RH, FND.

Bought FWONK, ATVI, NU.

Sold KR, V, MA, CHTR, ABBV, BMY, RPRX, MMC

AAPL is very close to half the portfolio. BAC is second largest holding at close to 15%.

[tsptalk]

Warren Buffett Says Markets Have Become a ‘Gambling Parlor’


“It’s a gambling parlor,” Mr. Buffett said Saturday of the markets over the past few years. He added that he blamed the financial industry for motivating risky behavior among investors. While he finds speculative bets “obscene,” the pickup in volatility across the markets has had one good effect, he said: It has allowed Berkshire to find undervalued businesses to invest in again following a period of relative quiet.

“We depend on mispriced businesses through a mechanism where we’re not responsible for the mispricing,” Mr. Buffett said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffett-says-markets-have-become-a-gambling-parlor-11651340230?st=tr6swtqk3p2vbsv&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Bullitt]

No new buys on Berkshires latest 10Q but added to PARA (averaging down) and OXY (more oil/gas, already added to CVX last few quarters). Notable add to ALLY (Ally Financial) in which he added 200%+ to his position.

[tsptalk]

Charlie Munger says there isn’t the slightest chance Buffett traded own account to enrich himself


Vice Chairman Charlie Munger pushed back against a report that alleged his partner Warren Buffett at times traded stocks in his personal account before the conglomerate made moves in the same securities.

Munger, 99, told CNBC’s Becky Quick in an interview that the idea that Buffett was front-running Berkshire’s own trades doesn’t make sense, pointing toward his charitable giving and the fact that most of his wealth is tied up in Berkshire stock.


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/charlie-munger-says-there-isnt-the-slightest-chance-buffett-traded-own-account-to-enrich-himself.html

[Bullitt]

Latest holdings update:

Significant sells in HPQ and PARA, two long time value traps.

Added to OXY and CVX.

Minor trimming of AAPL.

[tsptalk]

The ‘Buffett indicator’ is a red flag for markets, but ‘this is not a bubble,’ says investing pro


Things are in normal territory if the total value of the Wilshire 5000 index (which measures the total market) is about on par with the latest quarterly GDP estimate. If stocks are at about 70% of GDP, they’re said to be undervalued. Stocks trading at about double the size of the economy is considered a major red flag.

As of late, the ratio is at about 190% — the highest mark in two years. In calendar year 2022, the last time stocks traded in this territory, the S&P 500 dropped 18%.


What Warren Buffett'''s favorite indicator means for your money (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/what-warren-buffetts-favorite-indicator-means-for-your-money.html)

[Bullitt]

Not a single mention of government money printing by the manager at Black Rock. When's the last time someone on the buy said said stocks were overvalued anyway?

2022 was the longest bear market we've had since at least 2008 and the worst bond bear since the 1700's.

If the ratio was cut in half, stocks would still be overvalued according to the indicator.

[Bullitt]

No new buys on Berkshires latest 10Q but added to PARA (averaging down)

He gets a lot of glory in the press when he gets it right, but he got this one wrong and reduced his position by 1/3 in Q4 2023. Wouldn't be surprised if he unloaded more on the buyout spike.