On Travel 7/23 thru 7/30

[CheapShot]

Presently 50% S and 50% I, wondering to place them for the following week. I won't have access to a computer. I would prefer 100% in Stocks somewhere. Unl;ess someone predicts a big loss next week.

[tsptalk]

I'm staying put at 75% S, 25% I fund. I don't foresee any major changes in that over the next week. Maybe a minor tweak if something comes along.

Cheapshot..... not sure if you are aware of thisbut you can call in to the TSP line and make changes to your account.... although no 800 toll free number is availalbe, for a few cents one can make changes..... the TSP number is: 504.255.8777

it is almost as easy as the using theinternet....

Pepper

[tsptalk]

Great ideaPepper. :i

I haven't used the phone for so long I had forgotten about it.

[EW_ret]

There is a toll free number for TSP: 1-TSP-YOU-FRST (1-877-968-3778). This was effective 1 July.:)

Well its about time! Thanks

[CheapShot]

Who would have thunk it. A telephone call.

Thanx

[Rolo]

Phones? Oh ya, we do still have those, huh. :D

Welcome, EWGuy!


To answer the question, I would stick with an S/C mix, heavier in S.


(Edit: I said S/I mix, I meant S/C mix.)

Rolo wrote:

To answer the question, I would stick with an S/C mix, heavier in S.



:^

[CJ]

Responding to both Rolo and Mlk_Man

"To answer the question, I would stick with an S/C mix, heavier in S."

Why the S fund over C?

My calculations are indicating that the C fund will continue to perform better than the S fund for a few more days, maybe 5-10. (as it has been since July 2nd).

I also see the I fund performing worse than the C or S over the next several days (maybe 2 weeks).

I've been 100% C, but I also thought the market was turning up a week ago - my bad.

CJ

The current prices for C and S funds are 11.56 and 12.52. The 63-day moving average for the C and S funds are 11.83 and 12.88. If you bought into the funds right now, and cash them in just when they get back to their 63-day average, you stand to make 27 cents per share for the C, a 2.34% increase, and 36 cents per share for the S, a 2.80% increase. Whcih would you like more? That's the beauty of the S fund. It falls farther and gains more than the C.

You have to pay attention to how many shares you have and not only account balance. If you look at account balance, sure you would think the C is outperforming the S right now because it hasn't lost as much. But, you're still gonna gain back more when everything goes back up with the S.

Remember, only on paper are we "losing" money right now. The only actual time you will either lose or gain money is when you sell your shares. It all depends on how much you paid for them and how much you sell them for. You don't lose any of your shares when the market goes down only value. AND, the value will come back up eventually. So if you're in the S fund right now, do yourself a favor and hold on till the prices come back up. And if your not, I'd buy into the S soon if not now, you stand to make moremoney on your shares than you would with the C.

Just my humble opinion. :h

[Rolo]

That is why I like volatility, and S is more volatile.

Also, the upside/downside ratio appears to be better for S. When the market takes a hit, C does not seem to be that much more stable than S, but it seems far less volatile during major moves upward.

[Frizz B.]

Can you believe it, someone else is talking about how many shares you have. I tried to explain about why I felt the gaining of shares is as important as gaining of money six months ago. :dude:

[Rolo]

Frizz B. wrote:
Can you believe it, someone else is talking about how many shares you have. I tried to explain about why I felt the gaining of shares is as important as gaining of money six months ago. :dude:
haha, I knew you were going to pounce on that! (within 1/2 hour, too)

I remember. ;) But I'm not really talking about "gaining" shares, just holding them and selling them for more than you paid. :^

[CJ]

Thank you mlk_man, for pointing out that the S fund has performed better then the C only during up markets. That was my missing link.

Thanks to Frizz B a few months ago, I started plotting the gap between the C & S funds to determine when to go into the C or into the S. That was working for me, BUT I didn't make the connection to the direction of the market. Well at least I was loosing less during those months.

So, Monday morning I will be 100% S at $12.31. A perfect day, since there has only been 5 days since December when this find closed lower. I plan on riding the S until it breaks through $13 again, - I'll take that 6% gain all the way to the G fund.

[fuzzduzz]

When the earnings reports started this quarter quite a few of small cap companies warned about less than expected earnings. That and the fact it went up more than the others has seen it get pushed to the downside more than the others. If (and this is a big IF) we get turned around and back to the upside (don't think this will happen anytime soon) the C fund will probably give you a better return since investors are gonna be shying away from the small caps (just a thought) :i

[CJ]

fuzzduzz,

I want to thank you. :) Prior to your comment about the small cap companies worning about smaller ernings, I wasn't going to be paying close attention to the daily numbers -> thinking the market had already turned and the S fund would see close to $13 again fairly soon.

That comment encouraged me to watch very closely for a new differential range between the C&S funds, and I saw trouble. So I made a move to the G fund for the end of the trading day Wednesday. Looking back on the fallout numbers for Thu and Fri, I figure that move saved me over 3%. "Looking to get back into c or s for Tuesday" - depending on Monday.

[Rod]

CJ wrote:
fuzzduzz,

I want to thank you. :) Prior to your comment about the small cap companies worning about smaller ernings, I wasn't going to be paying close attention to the daily numbers -> thinking the market had already turned and the S fund would see close to $13 again fairly soon.

That comment encouraged me to watch very closely for a new differential range between the C&S funds, and I saw trouble. So I made a move to the G fund for the end of the trading day Wednesday. Looking back on the fallout numbers for Thu and Fri, I figure that move saved me over 3%. "Looking to get back into c or s for Tuesday" - depending on Monday.



Since you made the SMART move, you should have your own account talk in:

"Member Allocations, Transactions and Returns"

Just maybe you will save ALL of us 3% next time! ;)