F-fund Breakout?

[tsptalk]

AGG (F-fund) trying to breakout today...

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/021820b.gif

[Rod]

Breakout confirmed. :beerchug:

[Bullitt]

I think bond market participants are counting on a rate cut. If China pushes chances of a global recession needle any higher, what else can we expect CB's to do than cut rates?

[Rod]

I think bond market participants are counting on a rate cut. If China pushes chances of a global recession needle any higher, what else can we expect CB's to do than cut rates?

What caught my attention was AGG nearing its most recent 52-week high on 18 Feb. Nice to have the breakout.

[James48843]

The problem is Trump insisted on rates bring lowered, so the Fed already brought them extremely low. At this point, we only have rates of 1.50-1.75%. If the Fed needs to do a rate drop to jump start the economy following a virus scare, there isn’t much “drop” left to go.


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[tsptalk]

The Fed still has seven 0.25% cuts available before going to where they were from 2009 to 2016. Is that where we're heading? I hope not. But 7 cuts, or even just a couple, would certainly move the market higher. Probably to nosebleed levels.

[Rod]

Did you notice the huge after-hours pop in AGG???

up 1.83 or 1.58%

That's huge! Hope it holds!

[Rod]

Did you notice the huge after-hours pop in AGG???

up 1.83 or 1.58%

That's huge! Hope it holds!

Seems like that was a "glitch."

[bmneveu]

The majority of the top 100 autotracker accounts have their money in the F fund!

[tsptalk]

The majority of the top 100 autotracker accounts have their money in the F fund!

Maybe that's a sign to get the F out of there. :laugh:

[Rod]

Maybe that's a sign to get the F out of there. :laugh:

I'm out! :banana:

[FireWeatherMet]

Ahhh, Feeling like I'm on Fantasy Island.


45601

[Rod]

Currently low volume. Figured it would be higher on a day like today. More Fed rate cuts in the future, though. Likely this month. What to do?

[bmneveu]

Currently low volume. Figured it would be higher on a day like today. More Fed rate cuts in the future, though. Likely this month. What to do?

Maybe low volume because no one wants to buy bonds that pay less than the inflation rate?

[Rod]

Maybe low volume because no one wants to buy bonds that pay less than the inflation rate?

Regardless, folks still park money there:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/negative-yield-bonds/

https://www.ft.com/content/312f0a8c-0094-11e6-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62

[James48843]

Incredible- take a look at Treasury Interest rates today- the entire line of T-bills is INVERSE up to the one-year mark- where the one-year is now at 0.39%.

Wow.

https://stockcharts.com/search/?section=symbols&q=treasury

[Rod]

Incredible- take a look at Treasury Interest rates today- the entire line of T-bills is INVERSE up to the one-year mark- where the one-year is now at 0.39%.

Wow.

https://stockcharts.com/search/?section=symbols&q=treasury

So, would you trust (F) at this point? :D

[Bullitt]

Breakdown. All bonds getting killed.

Not sure about AGG, but Total US Bond Market ETF (BND) is down 8.5% over the past 3 days, its largest 3-day decline ever. Prior record was Oct 8-10 in 2008.

[exnavyew]

Anyone know if today's F-fund drop is a one day record?

[DreamboatAnnie]

Anyone know if today's F-fund drop is a one day record?
Hi Exnavyew, Looks like 10-10- 2008 holds the record at -6.84% for a single day drop. But looks like this week (Monday to Thursday) could be one of the deepest quick consecutive day drop (total of -6.59)..Its ugly! But I noticed that TSP F fund only recorded a drop of .84% as opposed to the 4% AGG drop. That is void for those that are still in F Fund. Something's going on... That is why I exited fully yesterday and day before... I exited 50% on Tuesday when 3-day EMA started to cross below 5-day EMA...should have exited fully. Then the remaining 50%on Wednesday.

45693

Here is a view of 2 month daily AGG chart.
45694

[exnavyew]

Hi Exnavyew, Looks like 10-10- 2008 holds the record at -6.84% for a single day drop. But looks like this week (Monday to Thursday) could be one of the deepest quick consecutive day drop (total of -6.59)..Its ugly! But I noticed that TSP F fund only recorded a drop of .84% as opposed to the 4% AGG drop. That is void for those that are still in F Fund. Something's going on... That is why I exited fully yesterday and day before... I exited 50% on Tuesday when 3-day EMA started to cross below 5-day EMA...should have exited fully. Then the remaining 50%on Wednesday.

45693

Here is a view of 2 month daily AGG chart.
45694

Thanks DBA for the info! :smile:

[exnavyew]

FWIW:


Negative rates come to the US: 1-month and 3-month Treasury bill yields are now below zero
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/negative-rates-come-to-the-us-1-month-and-3-month-treasury-bill-yields-are-now-negative.html

[exnavyew]

Sorry but never mind. Comment became irrelevant after after hours numbers changed suddenly.
My bad. :rolleyes:

[exnavyew]

F-fund related, FWIW:

The U.S. Is Testing the Patience of Bondholders
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-testing-patience-bondholders-123028765.html