7/16/04 Up day

[Pete1]

Looks like today may be an up day for stocks across the board. Some relief for short-term folks. :)

[Rolo]

Don't get your hopes up. Yesterday started stronger than today did :^, especially my individual stocks, yet closed lower. :t

[tsptalk]

It's been too easy for the bears lately, to sell every rally and make money. I am looking for a strong day before it's over, to shock'da bears.

[Rolo]

Don't feed the bears.

Soooo....hopefully Monday bulls will maintain some control. This week has been a bloody week for me, but I'm hanging tight. "Waaaaaait....for......it....."

[tsptalk]

It's been interesting. The market is not getting killed, it's just bleeding to death. I guess that's why some of the indicators aren't in the buy zone yet. That ARMS 10 day moving average is a strong signal however. I can't see this bleeding lasting too much longer with that being over 1.7.

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote:
It's been too easy for the bears lately, to sell every rally and make money. I am looking for a strong day before it's over, to shock'da bears.
Another great short term call by yours truly. Not! :dah:

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
Another great short term call by yours truly. Not! :dah:
bahahehehe.

Well this week blew goats. I'm glad I made so much in stocks last month, 'cos I gave a good chunk of it back! :?

Soooooo...Tom...what do you suppose our problem is here? I mean, we are smarter than this, so what gives? (I am joking, but I am serious too--"humour with a point".) I have an idea...see if you arrive at a similar conclusion.

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
Soooooo...Tom...what do you suppose our problem is here? I mean, we are smarter than this, so what gives?
Presidential election year ralliesseem to start in the summer months. If it weren't for thatd*mn July seasonality chart, I probably would have been more patient. This isn't fun but we are getting sooo close. It has been bad, butnottoo bad (down 3-4%) butthe one thing I'm afraid of is if we have to test the May lows to get the sentiment to a level where we can rally.

Back in early January I was pounding the table that the market was overbought and due for a breather and that we would probably see sideways actionfor several months. It was a tough sell because the market seemed so strong. Looking back it is exactly what happened but the swings were wild and quick and it was tougher to play (for me) than it looked...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/SP2004.gif

So for about a month or more I looked like a fool sitting in the G fund until finally in March we had a sell off.

Here is what I wrote in the January 21, 2004 comments...

"I mention in the mid-term outlook below, how good these overbought conditions are for the markets...over the longer term. Over the short term the market may be in some trouble. My conclusion? I can't predict which direction the next 1% move will be. I have a good inclination that the next 5% to 10% move will be down, and I am almost certain the next 30% move will be to the upside. The question is, how can I take advantage this? Well, that's what I talk about everyday. Right now I'm doing that by being in the G fund."

Anyway, I'm pounding the table again and I have been since about May. I'm usually early because the indicators start showing the signs way before it happens. My thinking now is that we will get that rally andI'll have to be patient and let it happen when it's going to happen. There still may be trading opportunities but the buy and hold strategy in the 2nd half will make good money.

Just my opinion.
Tom

[Pete1]

Doh!! :)

[tsptalk]

Pete1 wrote:
Doh!! :)
Care to elaborate? :?:D

[Pete1]

My short-term rally calling skillsshould be viewed with extreme skepticism - just call me oftenwrong Pete1 :) I repeat, Doh!!

[tsptalk]

Join the club. :oo

[Rolo]

For some reason, reminding myself that I am new at this doesn't keep me from wanting to kick myself, repeatedly. :D

Since this education is costing me so much, I sure hope it sticks. Remember, my individual stocks are more volatile, so a 3-4% loss on the Market average is quite a bit more for me; I bruise easily, hehe--so an all-caps D'OH! over here.

(But I just know as soon as I sell, everything I had will jump 10-20%!)

The dynamic seems to be that when just about everyone, and I mean nearly everyone, has given up and taken their ball and gone home, the Market rebounds. So my above parenthetical has merit to it. Does this sound accurate?

(I am taking a bit of a pummeling today, too.)