FAANG

[tsptalk]

FANG stocks have lost their characteristic mojo, but investors are sticking with them


The FANG block of tech giants — Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google’s parent Alphabet — are mostly in the red for the trailing 12 months despite their strong year-to-date comeback.

The backdrop for big tech is turning unfavorable from the government crackdown to the U.S.-China trade war to a global economic slowdown.

“The question is how much we are transitioning from a Wild West environment for big tech to something that’s more regulated and governed,” says Jeff DeGraaf, founder and chairman of Renaissance Macro Research.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/19/fang-stocks-have-lost-their-characteristic-mojo-but-investors-are-sticking-with-them.html

[FireWeatherMet]

Seems its the same mentality as former bell-weather stalwarts of the past, like IBM, JDS Uniphase, Kodak...the slogan of "Past performance is not indicative of future returns" often is slow to sink in, on the "herd".

[weatherweenie]

There's a blast from the past, JDSU!


Seems its the same mentality as former bell-weather stalwarts of the past, like IBM, JDS Uniphase, Kodak...the slogan of "Past performance is not indicative of future returns" often is slow to sink in, on the "herd".

[tsptalk]

There's a blast from the past, JDSU!

Ah, yes. Remember the days when the hottest stocks were names like CIEN, JNPR, Corning (GLW), AOL, Iomega, Broadcom, CSCO, EBAY, PALM, Doubleclick, Verisign, Yahoo, Netscape, etc.

Anymore?

[nnuut]

Ah, yes. Remember the days when the hottest stocks were names like CIEN, JNPR, Corning (GLW), AOL, Iomega, Broadcom, CSCO, EBAY, PALM, Doubleclick, Verisign, Yahoo, Netscape, etc.

Anymore? America!44618

[weatherweenie]

EXDS, CMGI, INKT


Ah, yes. Remember the days when the hottest stocks were names like CIEN, JNPR, Corning (GLW), AOL, Iomega, Broadcom, CSCO, EBAY, PALM, Doubleclick, Verisign, Yahoo, Netscape, etc.

Anymore?

[James48843]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T4QavHx8kg

[uscfanhawaii]

I thought it was supposed to be FAANG....Facebook, Amazon, APPLE, Netflix and Google ?!?

[nnuut]

Consolidation = complete control!

[Bullitt]

% of SP500 market cap held by largest 5 stocks.

MSFT, FB, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN

My question is how these companies hold up in a recession. Will people spend more time on Facebook when unemployed? Will people continue with their streaming subscriptions? Will there be as much profit in advertising revenue?

I think as long as they can continue putting it on their credit card they will not cut back. A recession will be a nice test to see if subscription companies can keep growing (NFLX, Peloton, Disney+, Spotify, Hulu, etc.)

45464

[Bullitt]

Rich got richer, but let's be honest, the top five were positioned perfectly for a global shutdown.


Is this series signaling either a correction or a bear market now? A correction is more likely than a bear market, in our opinion. That’s because bear markets tend to be triggered by credit crunches that cause recessions.

A credit crunch was certainly underway during late February through March 23. But on that fateful day, the Fed tossed away its bazookas, kept its helicopters grounded, and instead started to carpet-bomb the financial markets with B-52 bombers loaded with trillions of dollars of cash. Lots of money poured into the Magnificent Five.

46726

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6691094692576280576

[Bullitt]

Impossible to outperform as a fund manager unless you have these holdings. Hence, nearly every fund has FAANG holdings. Why bother watching the Dow, just watch AAPL.

Chart below does not include MSFT.

46867

[tsptalk]

Chart below does not include MSFT.


That would be MAGA, as Dan Nathan on CNBC calls it. :)

Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Apple.

[bmneveu]

For another perspective, here is a list of the biggest market cap companies publicly traded in America (not just S&P 500):

46868

Netflix is off the page in the ~25th range. Maybe we should replace them in the acronym with Microsoft... FAAMG? MAFANG? Add in Alibaba and get you some MAFANGA.

Now here is a list of the mega caps (top 36 companies) sorted by the biggest gainers over the last year:

46869

So these are the guys pulling the market up lately. Outliers are the top 3 there clearly, TSLA PDD and NVDA. How do the MAFANGA stocks check in? They are all there in the top 15 shown, but more mixed in now. And it's almost entirely tech. The 2nd half of the list (not shown) is far more diversified, but looks like you'd be sitting somewhere around a 0-3% total return over the last year if you owned only them.

[nasa1974]

That would be MAGA, as Dan Nathan on CNBC calls it. :)

Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Apple.

I have Apple stock. Wish I had the other 3.

[Bullitt]

I remember thinking about buying MSFT around 2011 and then Windows 8, a disaster from even before release, was released in 2012. MSFT which seemed like a dead, bloated company that had been left behind just appeared even more lost. No dividend, no shareholder value for over 10 years prior. Then, a new CEO, Windows 10, a push that forced everyone to pay a monthly subscription vs 5 year license for Office and it's been nothing but fireworks and happiness starting around 2014.

Would have been nice, but I don't lose sleep over it.

[James48843]

I bought Apple yesterday.

With my luck, that ought to be your sign to get out.

I’m thinking the 5G launch of the iPhone is going to be bigger than expected, and they are making lots of money from every single segment they are in now.

But since I bought some, who knows what it will do.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums (http://r.tapatalk.com/byo?rid=74921)

[tsptalk]

I bought Apple yesterday.

This guy is usually interesting, but quite bearish the majority of the time, so take it for what it;s worth...

https://twitter.com/xtrends/status/1292872104304680961

[TommyIV]

I bought Apple yesterday.


Not worried you're buying into a tech bubble? Tech is outperforming energy by 78.2% for 12 months through July. With the FANG names carrying 23% percent of the S&P 500 weight it seems they have the greatest height to fall if the bulls lose their grip.

But I guess if that risk wasn't their in the first place neither would be the potential gains.

If there’s an ‘actionable bubble’ in the stock market, this might be it, says BTIG’s Emanuel (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-theres-an-actionable-bubble-in-the-stock-market-this-might-be-it-says-btigs-emanuel-11597078521?mod=newsviewer_click)

[tsptalk]

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2020/081020d.gif


Holding AAPL in 2000 meant a devastating 75% plus haircut, but notice the price. Even if you held from the 2000 peak and took that loss, you'd be up 100X. :eek:

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2020/081020c.gif

[Bullitt]

https://twitter.com/xtrends/status/1292872104304680961

Stock split makes the stock look 'cheaper'.

The fact that it comprises so much of the S&P 500 is a WTF moment. AAPL makes niche products - it makes no sense.

[Bullitt]

Not worried you're buying into a tech bubble?

It wouldn't be my first choice for a laptop for my kids - there are plenty of refurbished ones to choose from on the market that are more than capable. .

Don't be surprised if this 'home schooling' craze gives computer stocks another bid as parents have to buy their kids hardware for home use. You can't type an essay on a tablet or phone and one family laptop won't cut it when mom, dad or another sibling needs to use the thing.

[bmneveu]

They aren't in the children laptop market. The iPhone is by far their biggest money maker.

[bmneveu]

This guy is usually interesting, but quite bearish the majority of the time, so take it for what it;s worth...

https://twitter.com/xtrends/status/1292872104304680961

He says AAPL is holding the entire market up, but we see the NYAD breadth chart every day in Coolhand's account thread, and its currently posting new highs.

[Bullitt]

NYAD tells individual stock participation, not weighting. The top 500 weighted companies matter more to the NYSE than the other 2,000 or so.

Example: Dow % weighting below. AAPL is almost 4x heavier than WMT.



No.
Stock
% Weight
in the
Index
Cum %


1
Apple
11.13
11.13


2
UnitedHealth Group
7.88
19.00


3
Home Depot
6.78
25.78


4
Goldman Sachs
5.17
30.95


5
Microsoft
5.14
36.09


6
McDonalds
5.04
41.13


7
Visa A
4.86
45.98


8
Boeing
4.43
50.41


9
3M
3.98
54.40


10
Johnson & Johnson
3.65
58.05



Dow Jones Industrial Average (SM) Component Weights - indexArb.com (http://indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html)

RE: Children's laptop; not quite sure what that is, but ever try writing an essay or research paper on a cell phone/tablet? How about computer aided drafting? Don't be surprised when the laptop/computer market demand goes up due to demand from people learning or working from home. Some are crazy about name brands, I'm not. Those who must have that AAPL ecosystem at home are more likely to keep buying AAPL products.

[James48843]

AAPL makes niche products - it makes no sense.

Actually it does. It makes multiple niches for it's niche market products.

1. It makes iPhones. And a large portion of current iPhone owners are about due for an upgrade. I know I've had my iphone 6 SE for a while. But the 5G version of iphone comes out in the fall. BIG expectations. And current iPhone sales were better than forcasted- so, hey, it's making money.

2. Iwatches and wearables are selling better than expected.

3. Ipads and small speciaisty computers are selling- better than expected.

4. Apple is now making significant money (in the billions) on services- the month to month subscription products like music services. THAT is doing much better than forecast and growing at a brisk pace, even though the company has been around for a while.

more:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/06/3-robinhood-stocks-retirees-can-buy-with-confidenc.aspx

Whenever you have multiple streams of money coming in, ALL of them growing nicely, better than expected, then you can pretty much bank on better share prices ahead.

[Bullitt]

BIG expectations. And current iPhone sales were better than forcasted- so, hey, it's making money.

Whenever you have multiple streams of money coming in, ALL of them growing nicely, better than expected, then you can pretty much bank on better share prices ahead.

The bull case is always easy to see when you're a shareholder, but in the end, we're all Apple shareholders.

Unfortunately those data points are already baked in. 5 year average PE: 16.94 / Current PE: 34.19. What happens if those numbers don't satisfy the street?

[Bullitt]

Robinhood website crashed during the drop this week.


Enticed by stock splits at Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc., demand from amateur equity enthusiasts was again thrust into plain view -- when their orders crashed discount-brokerage websites all over Wall Street. The wailing crush of buying added $200 billion to the market value of the two tech giants, extending mammoth runs.

Now those gains are history, in one of the bigger spasms of the post-crisis recovery trade. A few days of gut-wrenching declines in Apple and Tesla were the harrowing welcome for anyone who bought in the split-induced frenzy -- a reminder that stocks don’t always go up, to correct a favorite saying.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-04/a-week-like-this-was-a-long-time-coming-for-day-trader-faithful

[tsptalk]

Oh, so that's what a margin call is. :D

[bmneveu]

Gonna add Microsoft and Tesla to FAANG and start calling it FAT MANG. Maybe it'll catch on :)

[Bullitt]

NFLX hasn’t made a new high since July. MSFT and AMZN haven’t since September.

Markets have still gone up since then.

[bmneveu]

NFLX hasn’t made a new high since July. MSFT and AMZN haven’t since September.

Markets have still gone up since then.

Actually just made a video about the big tech stocks this morning. I call them FAMTANG now. FB AAPL MSFT TSLA AMZN NFLX GOOG.

https://youtu.be/8lx65oqXLyM

[Bullitt]

MSFT, FB, GOOGL all looking strong here and ready to break higher.

AAPL, AMZN, NFLX bouncing for another run at highs.

With industrials and oil leading the past few months, I'd see this as massively bullish if FAANG stocks make new highs after a six month consolidation.

[bmneveu]

MSFT, FB, GOOGL all looking strong here and ready to break higher.

AAPL, AMZN, NFLX bouncing for another run at highs.

With industrials and oil leading the past few months, I'd see this as massively bullish if FAANG stocks make new highs after a six month consolidation.

I've kept a close eye on FB recently. Breakout above its wedge, should project well for a long 2021 hold. I will enter if it busts above its ATH over that 305 range.

[Bullitt]

FB making an all time high today. What other FAANG's will follow?

[Bullitt]

FANG-M?

Microsoft big Windows 11 release coming soon. In 2015 when they dropped Windows 10 after the disastrous Windows 8 experience, I wasn't alone in thinking the company was dead money with it's best days behind in Windows 7 & XP. Was I wrong or what? It's done nothing but go up since 2015. You could have chosen any month since then to buy and you'd be sitting on a rather large profit today.

https://www.cnet.com/news/microsoft-windows-11-launch-how-to-watch-live-here-on-june-24/

[rangerray]

I think people are still pulling for Microsoft as an alternative to Apple products.

[bmneveu]

I refer to FAMTAG now. FB, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, GOOG.

I leave Netflix out. Love the service and shows they are pumping out, but they are not in the same boat as the others in my opinion.

[tsptalk]

AMZN is the one everyone is talking about - probably too much to be useful. A breakout would likely set up a big move higher. Similar to early 2020, but that first breakout back then was set back by the COVID crash, so obviously there's no guarantees. That one hurt, but what didn't get hurt back then?

It looks primed for that breakout here but nothing says it can't come back down to test the bottom of the channel again first.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/062421a.gif

[fedgolfer]

while tsla on the daily seems stretched and at the top of the flag/pennant... the weekly chart is about to explode north with a PSAR pop coming.49692

[Bullitt]

AMZN .... looks primed for that breakout here but nothing says it can't come back down to test the bottom of the channel again first.

The breakout looks good but a second retest of old resistance in progress has to hold. Looks like general weakness across the board in FAANG stocks despite earnings blowouts.

[Bullitt]

AMZN getting hammered in AH missing earnings but worse, guided lower. Cloud computing was their bright spot, but that tells us nothing about the consumer & inflation.

Looks like the retest is happening tomorrow.

[Bullitt]

Whelp, that's it. Expect the whole entire market to follow. Pretty amazing when you think about it that Amazon has gone nowhere since June 2020.

Double top measured move would indicate some additional downside to around $2,700 levels.

52913

[robo]

Whelp, that's it. Expect the whole entire market to follow. Pretty amazing when you think about it that Amazon has gone nowhere since June 2020.

Double top measured move would indicate some additional downside to around $2,700 levels.

52913

The C Fund is only down around 10% from its high and the S Fund is down around 20%. So I sure agree! For all those calling the C Fund the stock market, those big tech names holding up the big cap indexes, could really push the C Fund much lower now. That is "IF" we don't get an oversold bounce soon.

[tsptalk]

Wow, I didn't see that today. Just playing devil's advocate here, it looks like Amazon has a habit a fake outs on the downside before bottoming.

(FTYI, I don't currently own AMZN)

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2022/012122g.gif


Whelp, that's it. Expect the whole entire market to follow. Pretty amazing when you think about it that Amazon has gone nowhere since June 2020.

Double top measured move would indicate some additional downside to around $2,700 levels.

52913

[tsptalk]

Here comes FANG earnings... after the bell today.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2023/tsp-020223e.gif
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2023/tsp-020223de.gif

[k0nkuzh0n]

Note, Rivian, which amazon has a large stake in, was down 44% in the 4th quarter of 2022


Date
Close


9/30/2022
32.91


12/30/2022
18.43

[tsptalk]

Microsoft isn't really a FANG stock, but rather MAGA (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon), but basically...


After the first wave of earnings from big tech, Microsoft has broken out after a gap up. It is hitting some resistance there, however.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2023/tsp-042623b.gif

Google is up, but not very impressively being below the early April highs. The 200-day EMA did get tested, and hold, after some selling earlier today.

[tsptalk]

The original FAANG stocks all look pretty good here - except Apple. Can this continue to hold up the market indices while we see weakness in some of the broader indices?

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2023/tsp-091323b.gif

[Epic]

Hope this holds till the morning open.........

60131

[Epic]

OOOHHH....... Even better :D
Steady as she goes...

60139

..

[Bullitt]

From Sentimentrader. Thanks META, you saved the day and made everything good again. Even though everyone is saying this isn't a tech bubble and 2000 was, I can't help but notice that grouping around the tech crash.


This seems like it's going down as one of the very few times since the S&P 500 became a 500-stock index that it jumped more than 1% on a day when more of its stocks declined than advanced. Forward returns weren't great.

60148

https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert/status/1753526344703439334

[Bullitt]

UBS downgrades AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, META, NVDA, GOOGL to Neutral from Overweight. This is street speak for 'sell'.


Profit growth momentum of the so-called Big Six technology stocks could "collapse" over the next few quarters, UBS Global Research strategists said on Monday, downgrading its rating on the mega-cap companies.

Profit momentum of Big Six tech companies to 'collapse' over 2024, UBS says (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/profit-momentum-big-six-tech-125259363.html)

[tsptalk]

UBS downgrades AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, META, NVDA, GOOGL to Neutral from Overweight. This is street speak for 'sell'.
Sounds like a buy signal. :D